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OnBaseMachine
10-08-2006, 01:54 AM
National League Pitching Prospects

http://msn.foxsports.com/id/6025296_36_1.jpg
Reds prospect Homer Bailey is the most major league-ready prospect for next season. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Homer Bailey, RHP, Cincinnati Bailey will be the most hyped player on this list heading into next season. He has the highest long-term ceiling of anyone in the game, and he's also one of the league's closest pitchers to breaking into the majors. With a combination of talent, polish and opportunity, his fantasy stock will do nothing but climb after drafts this off-season.

A first round selection out of a Texas high school in 2004, Bailey was seen as having a dominant arsenal prior to the draft. His control needed work, but it was hardly a negative for such a young player. The right-hander threw just 12 1/3 innings after signing in 2004, so his first test came at Single-A Dayton the following season. Although he didn't finish with spectacular end results, he showed flashes of brilliance and generally acquitted himself nicely at the level, posting a 125/63 K/BB ratio and a 4.43 ERA in 103 2/3 innings of work. The walks were certainly high, but he was only 19, so it was hardly a reason to complain.

Assigned to High-A Sarasota to begin the 2006 campaign, Bailey showed significant strides almost immediately upon debuting. His mid-90s fastball continued to show explosivenesses and his big breaking curveball proved too tough for minor league hitters, but improvement in his command and the use of his changeup were very encouraging signs. He made just 13 starts at the level, striking out 79 and walking 22 in 70 2/3 innings of work.

The Reds didn't hesitate in promoting the youngster given how dominant he looked, and he responded to the challenge by continuing to excel at Double-A Chattanooga. He made 13 starts after arriving in the Southern League, striking out 77 and walking 28 while posting a 1.59 ERA in 68 innings of work. He also gave up just one homer at the level while recording a 1.43 GB/FB ratio. Despite his young age of 20, it became quite clear by September that he was ready to face more advanced hitters. The Reds were rumored to be considering calling up the right-hander, but he struggled mightily in his first start during September and they shut him down once Chattanooga's season was over.

Bailey should head to Triple-A to begin the 2007 season, and he'll be the first pitcher called upon when the Reds need an injury replacement. If the club's major league pitchers have the good fortune to remain healthy, he wouldn't have any difficulty pushing one of the lesser names aside once he's ready. Since he's still young and his command is only average, a few speed bumps once debuting in the majors would hardly be shocking. However, his fastball-curveball combination is so promising, taking the league by storm also isn't out of the question. He's worth stashing away in deep redraft leagues this spring, and even mixed leaguers should watch for a midseason debut.

http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/6026704

mth123
10-08-2006, 04:37 AM
Thank you DanO. If Bailey (and Bruce) turn out as well as expected we may remember you and your clipboards more fondly. I am already starting to.

TC81190
10-15-2006, 01:50 AM
Thank you DanO. If Bailey (and Bruce) turn out as well as expected we may remember you and your clipboards more fondly. I am already starting to.

If it were up to me, DanO would already have been back as the #1 draft guy.

redsfanmia
10-27-2006, 06:12 PM
If it were up to me, DanO would already have been back as the #1 draft guy.

I agree DanO is a good baseball man just miscasted as GM.

11BarryLarkin11
10-27-2006, 07:01 PM
I just wish we would have added Tim Lincecum to the mix. I think a rotation with Bailey and Lincecum would be dominant for years to come.


But, at least we got Stubbs. :(

Superdude
10-27-2006, 08:03 PM
It's pretty sad. Bailey, Lincecum, Cueto, Wood :eek:

11BarryLarkin11
10-27-2006, 10:26 PM
It's pretty sad. Bailey, Lincecum, Cueto, Wood :eek:

Yeah, I can't believe that didn't take him. He's going to be up and contributing in the rotation by the start of 2008, at the latest. He could have been our replacement for Eric Milton. Having two power arms in the rotation like Lincecum and Bailey would've been something to see.

Vada Pinson Fan
10-28-2006, 12:53 AM
I can't wait for Homer Bailey to set up shop at Great American Ballpark! In all the years of Cy Young Award voting, it's so disconcerting to me as a life-long Reds fan that our beloved team hasn't had a Cy Young winner yet. I know Seaver and Danny Jackson came close but what really bothers me is the Reds GM's over the past 3+ decades have only developed top of the rotation starting pitchers: Don Gullett, Tom Browning and Mario Soto. Wayne Simpson looked like a new version of Bob Gibson until he had that shoulder hemmorage.

Are the Reds snake-bit or will Homer Bailey stop the drought where Reds starting pitchers and the Cy Young Awards (year after year) are concerned? It's always been a gamble to take high school pitchers but past Reds regimes paid the price for doing just that but they never learned. Let's hope Mr. Castellini and Mr. Krivsky are great baseball history buffs and turn this around.

Thanks OBM for posting they story about Bailey. Very good read! I'm looking forward to 2007 for the Reds but I worry Krivsky might give Dunn away like he did Kearns and Lopez. Like the article above said- 2008 might be THE year for the Reds. Let's hope so- if 2007 comes up short.

Superdude
10-28-2006, 01:36 AM
I just can't wait to watch him. I don't remember ever seeing a fastball above 96MPH in a Reds uniform. If Bailey's stuff is anything close to Verlander, he should at least be entertaining

dougdirt
10-28-2006, 03:36 AM
Baileys fastball isnt quite as good, but his curve better. Change up is still a work in progress, but improving.

Degenerate39
10-28-2006, 10:51 AM
I know Seaver and Danny Jackson came close

You're going to have to add Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo to that mix of coming up short for the Cy Young award. Hopefully I'm wrong but I doubt they'll win it.

LawFive
10-28-2006, 12:40 PM
I just can't wait to watch him. I don't remember ever seeing a fastball above 96MPH in a Reds uniform.

Rob Dibble says hey. :wave:

Superdude
10-28-2006, 03:19 PM
Rob Dibble says hey.

I'm only 17 so I'm from the Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson era.

TC81190
10-28-2006, 07:38 PM
Rob Dibble says hey. :wave:

Mark Wohlers.

toledodan
10-29-2006, 01:57 AM
I'm only 17 so I'm from the Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson era.


poor kid! :beerme: :thumbup:

bradmu
10-29-2006, 11:08 AM
Rick White hit 96 on the Scoreboard at a game I was at this year. He also gave up 3 runs that inning to blow the game.

Falls City Beer
10-29-2006, 01:40 PM
Uh. Scott Williamson. With regularity.

dougdirt
10-29-2006, 03:29 PM
How about starters guys....last Reds starter to throw upper 90s?

mth123
10-29-2006, 03:43 PM
Wayne Simpson? Don Gullett? Tom Seaver? Jim Maloney? Mario Soto? Jack Armstrong?

I don't really know if they threw that hard. I don't think they did.

The answer may be Gary Nolan pre-injury or possibly Bruce Berenyi.