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mth123
10-12-2006, 11:09 PM
There has been a lot of discussion of big trades and free agent signings, but if the Reds are going to fill all of their holes and restock their talent, they will need to hit on some minor deals as well. I am sure there are lots of candidates out there and this is by no means a complete list or the only list. So..

Here are a few guys who are not on everyone's target list that I think could be good pick-ups/gambles for Cincy. These guys are on teams that could use some of the guys the Reds realistically have to trade (Larue, Ross, Freel, Cormier and lesser prospects like Pelland and Dumatrait for example.) I don't really like to predict trades so I won't try to get any more specific. I wouldn't go all out for these guys and none are sure things, but if a deal makes sense I would prefer these to most of the retreads we've been getting (McCracken, Mays, etc.) I did throw in one older vet FA at the end for sentimental reasons (it also makes sense though).

Gavin Floyd - 24 in 2007. A former top prospect. 2 Bad years in a row and is seemingly out of Philly's plans. Had a decent 2nd half of 2006 in AAA. Still healthy as far as I know.

JA Happ - Overlooked Philly prospect who pitched at 3 levels in 2006. Lefty. Projects as a 4 or 5. Age 24 in 2007. High K Rate, low WHIP.

Macier Izturis - .777 OPS in 2006 over 350 ABs. Can play SS. Lost in the shuffle with all the talent in Anaheim. May not be available to allow others to be traded in a bigger deal or as insurance for a failure at 3B or 2B in Anaheim.

Jeremy Accardo - 25 in 2007. Was in the picture for saves in SF for a while when Benetiz was hurt but faded and was traded to Toronto. Had high WHIP in 2006 was pretty good in the PCL.

Brandon League - 24 in 2007. Emerged in 2006. K's kind of low in majors in the past but ok in the minors and in 2006 in Toronto. Once thought of as a closer type but by-passed with BJ Ryan signing.

Kyle Farnsworth - Disappointment in NY and has big contract. Seems to lack concentration at times. Was pretty good closing for a while in Atlanta when he had to keep his head in the game. If he could be had in an exchange of bad contracts, I'd let him close in Cincy.

Brian Bruney - 25 in 2007 Had a good 20 innings in NY in 2006. Was once thought of as a possible closer in Arizona. Failed a few times, but throws hard.

Mike Wuertz - 28 in 2007. He's been mentioned by others so I won't rehash. I'll just say that I agree.

Eduardo Perez - 37 in 2007. Free Agent. Good RH Power platoon guy. Plays 1B but could spell Dunn or Griffey in a corner OF spot and even play 3B in a pinch. Has fan appeal in Cincy and grew up with Griffey for a while so could be a good influence there as well. Probably wouldn't hate it in Cincy and wouldn't ask for a premium as far as money is concerned.

Probably not the sexiest list in the world, but if anyone has any info on these guys or other similar low profile ideas please share. We're a month or more before things really start to happen, so I thought this might be something different to discuss.

There are plenty of other threads about the big names and the whipping boys.

wheels
10-13-2006, 01:31 AM
I like your list.

I'd also like to add Joe Blanton.

He could be Arron Harang redux.

Don't know his BABIP, but my intuition tells me that he was very hit unlucky in '06. If that's the case, Beane probably already knows it.

Wouldn't hurt to ask though.

Patrick Bateman
10-13-2006, 01:34 AM
I like your list.

I'd also like to add Joe Blanton.

He could be Arron Harang redux.

Don't know his BABIP, but my intuition tells me that he was very hit unlucky in '06. If that's the case, Beane probably already knows it.

Wouldn't hurt to ask though.

Ya, he was unlucky. If he came to the NL you would probably see a 4.00ish ERA. One alarming thing about him is that his K rate has gone down dramatically the last 2 seasons. His HRs have too which have kept him afloat. He would be a good target if the price was right.

Patrick Bateman
10-13-2006, 01:36 AM
Jeremy Accardo - 25 in 2007. Was in the picture for saves in SF for a while when Benetiz was hurt but faded and was traded to Toronto. Had high WHIP in 2006 was pretty good in the PCL.



He was really good with San Fran, but not so good with Toronto. I would love to trade for him (and I don't think it would cost much). He's a potential sleeper IMO.

Maybe a LaRue for Accardo trade since Toronto will need a catcher with 2 expiring contracts. We may have to eat 1.5-2M, but I think there may be a fit there.

wheels
10-13-2006, 01:36 AM
Ya, he was unlucky. If he came to the NL you would probably see a 4.00ish ERA. One alarming thing about him is that his K rate has gone down dramatically the last 2 seasons. His HRs have too which have kept him afloat. He would be a good target if the price was right.

Ahhh...But his BABIP was .341. He only walked 58 batters in 194 innings.

Just as I suspected.

Same body type, roughly the same pitch arsenal as Harang. The Reds traded for Harang at about the same age.

It's eerie, folks.

Wayne should incquire about him pronto.

mth123
10-13-2006, 06:50 AM
He was really good with San Fran, but not so good with Toronto. I would love to trade for him (and I don't think it would cost much). He's a potential sleeper IMO.

Maybe a LaRue for Accardo trade since Toronto will need a catcher with 2 expiring contracts. We may have to eat 1.5-2M, but I think there may be a fit there.

Actually Larue for Accardo or League was exactly what I was thinking when I wrote this. The reds may need to throw in a Pelland to get League. Again, I'm not trying to predict specific deals because its pretty difficult. Just throwing out target ideas.

Potential deep sleepers is what this thread is all about. The Reds will need to find a couple.

mth123
10-13-2006, 06:58 AM
I like your list.

I'd also like to add Joe Blanton.

He could be Arron Harang redux.

Don't know his BABIP, but my intuition tells me that he was very hit unlucky in '06. If that's the case, Beane probably already knows it.

Wouldn't hurt to ask though.

Thanks.

I'd be thrilled with Blanton. Not sure the Reds have much they would want. Maybe Freel with all the IF injuries which seem to be chronic with Crosby and Ellis; and Payton and Bradley are both FA in the OF. They might want Deno. I'd rather trade Freel.

wheels
10-13-2006, 08:56 AM
Thanks.

I'd be thrilled with Blanton. Not sure the Reds have much they would want. Maybe Freel with all the IF injuries which seem to be chronic with Crosby and Ellis; and Payton and Bradley are both FA in the OF. They might want Deno. I'd rather trade Freel.


Yeah, I have no idea what Beane would want for him.

If we were talking about any other GM, they'd give him up for a song.

The Reds might have a prospect or two.

SultanOfSwing
10-13-2006, 11:11 AM
Excellent list - I would rep you if I could. :)

I agree with everyone on that list (and Blanton - he is Harang 2.0) with the exceptions of Farnsworth, Happ, and Bruney. Farnsworth just doesn't do anything for me, and he will probably get more money than he is worth, IMO. I am not familar with Happ and Bruney, so I can't say much on them.

This is exactly what I think Wayne is going to be doing a lot of this offseason. Making smart inexpensive moves. Trading some contracts for talent and some young talent for other young talent. Don't get me wrong, I still believe BCast and Krivsky will make a couple big splashes. But this is where we will see Krivsky's vision realized. Small pieces with upside that build a solid contender now and for the future.

I will think about this and probably add some names that I know of as well.

NJReds
10-13-2006, 11:18 AM
Jesse Foppert was cut by Seattle. Guy was a high-flyer when the Giants called him up at 23 yrs. old. But it seems as though he's completely lost the strike zone. A good pitching coach and a shift to the bullpen might straighten him out. He does miss bats...but he misses just about everything else, too.

Two second basemen I like are Brian Roberts (BAL) and Orlando Hudson (AZ)...but I think they're both arbitration eligible, not free agents.

SultanOfSwing
10-13-2006, 11:35 AM
Jesse Foppert was cut by Seattle. Guy was a high-flyer when the Giants called him up at 23 yrs. old. But it seems as though he's completely lost the strike zone. A good pitching coach and a shift to the bullpen might straighten him out. He does miss bats...but he misses just about everything else, too.

Two second basemen I like are Brian Roberts (BAL) and Orlando Hudson (AZ)...but I think they're both arbitration eligible, not free agents.
Yes they are. But I would imagine both are pretty untouchable, especially Hudson. They are very similar players, but Hudson probably gets my nod with more potential and stellar defense. Hudson is probably the best in the majors when it comes to turning a double-play.

SultanOfSwing
10-13-2006, 12:01 PM
There is this Phillips guy with the Indians. Great prospect - best in baseball a couple of years ago, I believe. Reports are the Indians don't like him and may dump him. He might be worth taking a flyer on... :D

I would add to that list

Shawn Marcum (TOR - RHRP)
Francisco Rosario (TOR - RHRP - flame-thrower)
Zack Grienke (KC - RHSP - amazing prospect but seems to have lost his head, somewhat like Oliver Perez but better)
Humberto Sanchez (DET - RHSP - somewhat of a mystery, never regarded well, but had good 2006 (great AA, avg AAA), got a lot of pub because he was considered Detroit's expendable trade bait, his value is down now. Not sure the asking price, though.)
Mark Teahen (KCR - 3B good prospect, had similar season to EE, but with less upside. Will be replaced by Alex Gordon. Would be expensive, but could replace EE if used as trade bait, or could convert to 2B.)
Ian Kinsler (TEX - 2B - high-touted prospect, had good 2006, stock seems to be a little down and Texas need RP. Not likely to be moved unless Texas gets a 2B replacement.)
Oliver Perez (LHSP - NYM - will all depend on how he performs in game 4 of NLCS. If he does well Mets likely hang on to him; if not, he can be had dirt cheap.)

That's all for now - I will post more later.

Jpup
10-13-2006, 12:09 PM
I like your list.

I'd also like to add Joe Blanton.

He could be Arron Harang redux.

Don't know his BABIP, but my intuition tells me that he was very hit unlucky in '06. If that's the case, Beane probably already knows it.

Wouldn't hurt to ask though.

He's from Bowling Green, KY too. Right down the road from me.:thumbup:

dabvu2498
10-13-2006, 12:12 PM
He's from Bowling Green, KY too. Right down the road from me.:thumbup:

He actually went to Franklin-Simpson HS.

Ahhh... good old Franklin KY. Used to be home of the cheapest gas east of the Mississippi. Is it still, Jpup???

Jpup
10-13-2006, 12:31 PM
He actually went to Franklin-Simpson HS.

Ahhh... good old Franklin KY. Used to be home of the cheapest gas east of the Mississippi. Is it still, Jpup???

I don't go through Franklin much, but I think it's about 1.88 in Bowling Green.

Will M
10-13-2006, 04:41 PM
The Brewers are looking to move Jenkins. He has 1 more year on a big contract. He is servicable as part of a platoon. He can play a decent RF & hits righties well with some power ( he stinks vs lefties ). The Brewers have other younger OFs they want to play.

If Ohka leaves as a free agent they might bite on a Milton for Jenkins trade.

jmac
10-13-2006, 05:17 PM
He actually went to Franklin-Simpson HS.

Ahhh... good old Franklin KY. Used to be home of the cheapest gas east of the Mississippi. Is it still, Jpup???

he went to high school at edmonson county with a friend of mine.
he may have transferred to fshs if he in fact went there.
i seen him pitch several times this year and always thought he would be a good addition.question is....with a's losing zito and harden's physical problems,dont know if a's would be looking to trade a starter or not.

SultanOfSwing
10-13-2006, 05:24 PM
The Brewers are looking to move Jenkins. He has 1 more year on a big contract. He is servicable as part of a platoon. He can play a decent RF & hits righties well with some power ( he stinks vs lefties ). The Brewers have other younger OFs they want to play.

If Ohka leaves as a free agent they might bite on a Milton for Jenkins trade.
What happened to Richard Hidalgo? He didn't play in 2006. I think he is with the Orioles. He was pretty productive in 2005. Does anyone know anything about him?

dunner13
10-13-2006, 05:40 PM
Floyd and farnsworth could be nice gambles in my opinion. Phils should be needing a catcher with lieberthal probably leaving. Milton for farnsworth would be a nice deal for us. Farnsworth stuggles with consistency but he throws hard and could potentially close for us.

Highlifeman21
10-13-2006, 06:34 PM
Jesse Foppert was cut by Seattle. Guy was a high-flyer when the Giants called him up at 23 yrs. old. But it seems as though he's completely lost the strike zone. A good pitching coach and a shift to the bullpen might straighten him out. He does miss bats...but he misses just about everything else, too.

Two second basemen I like are Brian Roberts (BAL) and Orlando Hudson (AZ)...but I think they're both arbitration eligible, not free agents.

Hudson and Phillips. The DP combo of my dreams! Seriously.

Hudson may have a weak stick, but I think his defense would more than make up with it, especially with him at 2B.

Joseph
10-13-2006, 06:42 PM
I don't go through Franklin much, but I think it's about 1.88 in Bowling Green.

2.09. I work in Bowling Green. :)

LincolnparkRed
10-13-2006, 06:44 PM
Floyd and farnsworth could be nice gambles in my opinion. Phils should be needing a catcher with lieberthal probably leaving. Milton for farnsworth would be a nice deal for us. Farnsworth stuggles with consistency but he throws hard and could potentially close for us.

He also fancies tight pants which could appeal female/alternative lifestyle fan base. Plus Paul Wilson would tell you he would be pretty handy in a fight.

jmcclain19
10-13-2006, 06:55 PM
The Dbacks have Alberto Callaspo to play 2B next year - they can't wait to deal Johnny Estrada & Orlando Hudson out of town.

And Farnsworth would be an excellent closer for the Reds. Especially since Paul Wilson won't be back next year.

Tom Servo
10-13-2006, 08:56 PM
He also fancies tight pants which could appeal female/alternative lifestyle fan base. Plus Paul Wilson would tell you he would be pretty handy in a fight.
http://www.progressiveboink.com/dugout/glasses8.jpg
Not to mention a sport coat with a medallion and no shirt.

mth123
10-13-2006, 09:43 PM
Jesse Foppert was cut by Seattle. Guy was a high-flyer when the Giants called him up at 23 yrs. old. But it seems as though he's completely lost the strike zone. A good pitching coach and a shift to the bullpen might straighten him out. He does miss bats...but he misses just about everything else, too..

I think Foppert is worth a shot if its free. Is he really available to anyone? Gotta wonder about that.

Javy Pornstache
10-13-2006, 10:15 PM
I think Foppert is worth a shot if its free. Is he really available to anyone? Gotta wonder about that.

Yeah, Foppert was released by Seattle the other day. And fantastic list on your initial post, btw, I agree on all of them, even 'old' Eduardo Perez. He'd be a great platoon partner of Scott Hatteberg at first since I doubt Aurilia will be back. Buys Votto more time, whether all of us thinks he needs it or not.

blumj
10-13-2006, 11:09 PM
Carlos Pena and Hee Seop Choi are free agents now. (FYI, so's Corky Miller, while Mike Burns accepted a minor league deal with the Red Sox.)

mth123
10-13-2006, 11:22 PM
he went to high school at edmonson county with a friend of mine.
he may have transferred to fshs if he in fact went there.
i seen him pitch several times this year and always thought he would be a good addition.question is....with a's losing zito and harden's physical problems,dont know if a's would be looking to trade a starter or not.

Good thought. They may need Blanton. Maybe though they view Harden as Zito's replacement since he's been out most of the year. That may still make a Blanton deal possible.

mth123
10-14-2006, 12:32 AM
Shawn Marcum (TOR - RHRP)
Francisco Rosario (TOR - RHRP - flame-thrower)
Zack Grienke (KC - RHSP - amazing prospect but seems to have lost his head, somewhat like Oliver Perez but better)
Humberto Sanchez (DET - RHSP - somewhat of a mystery, never regarded well, but had good 2006 (great AA, avg AAA), got a lot of pub because he was considered Detroit's expendable trade bait, his value is down now. Not sure the asking price, though.)
Mark Teahen (KCR - 3B good prospect, had similar season to EE, but with less upside. Will be replaced by Alex Gordon. Would be expensive, but could replace EE if used as trade bait, or could convert to 2B.)
Ian Kinsler (TEX - 2B - high-touted prospect, had good 2006, stock seems to be a little down and Texas need RP. Not likely to be moved unless Texas gets a 2B replacement.)
Oliver Perez (LHSP - NYM - will all depend on how he performs in game 4 of NLCS. If he does well Mets likely hang on to him; if not, he can be had dirt cheap.)

That's all for now - I will post more later.

I like Rosario and Marcum as gambles. the Jays have a lot of these kinds of pitchers. Somebody is sure to be an odd man out.

Be nice if the Reds could make a deal to get 2 of these 4 (including the previously mentioned Accardo and League).

Greinke and Kinsler may be impossible to get.

jmcclain19
10-14-2006, 02:10 AM
Carlos Pena and Hee Seop Choi are free agents now. (FYI, so's Corky Miller, while Mike Burns accepted a minor league deal with the Red Sox.)

Last I heard - Carlos Pena is (rightfully so) going to be trying his best to hit the shuuto in Japan next season.

jmcclain19
10-14-2006, 02:15 AM
And about the list - Brandon League was the Blue Jays setup guy down the stretch - he's been pimped for several seasons as the Jays lighting arm of the future - so now that he's finally figured it out, I seriously doubt he's going anywhere without a significant bounty going in the other direction.

Floyd's had seemingly a billion chances to prove he belongs facing MLB pitching, (actually, about a 100IP) but has yet to show it. He's only 23, so a risk may be in order, but perhaps given the Reds recent success, or lack there of, of getting pitchers from the NL East, I'd say Krivsky should stay far, far away from that division.

I bet NY brings back Bruney - he was pretty darn effective for them in the 2nd half. Considering he figures to be cheap, they'll let Joe Torre do his best to throw that arm out next year.

Jpup
10-14-2006, 02:47 AM
2.09. I work in Bowling Green. :)

It's 1.98 here and it's usually .10 cheaper in BG. I just assumed, you know how that goes.

mth123
10-14-2006, 08:31 AM
And about the list - Brandon League was the Blue Jays setup guy down the stretch - he's been pimped for several seasons as the Jays lighting arm of the future - so now that he's finally figured it out, I seriously doubt he's going anywhere without a significant bounty going in the other direction.

Floyd's had seemingly a billion chances to prove he belongs facing MLB pitching, (actually, about a 100IP) but has yet to show it. He's only 23, so a risk may be in order, but perhaps given the Reds recent success, or lack there of, of getting pitchers from the NL East, I'd say Krivsky should stay far, far away from that division.

I bet NY brings back Bruney - he was pretty darn effective for them in the 2nd half. Considering he figures to be cheap, they'll let Joe Torre do his best to throw that arm out next year.

You're probably right about League. My logic was simply that he was "pimped" as you say, then suddenly Ryan is signed and he is pushed to the back a little so there may be some possibility he isn't a central figure in Toronto's plans. He may be too expensive in terms of talent after emerging in the 2nd half.

Floyd had chances, but at a very young age. Different type of pitcher but similar situation to Lizard. Brought up young, failed a couple times and pushed to the background. in Lizard's case there seemed to be a back of the rotation guy in there somewhere it was just a matter of being ready. This year I think he showed it until his minor arm injuries and the Narron misuse did him in. Floyd is following the same pattern with a higher ceiling. Same organization too. If they've given up on him and he can be had for cheap, I stick him in AAA and see what happens. He may end up as one of those guys who puts it together in the pen. If he fails, he's Jose Acevedo. Not proposing trading much for him.

You may be right about Bruney. I think you probably are. But you never know about George. He may sign 10 bigger names in a reaction to not winning and push him off the roster. Young emerging talents have been rare with the Yankees lately and they are oftentimes traded for expensive aging vets in a shopping spree. Any cheap, no name Yankee under 25 is worth watching IMO.

mth123
10-14-2006, 12:06 PM
Carlos Pena and Hee Seop Choi are free agents now. (FYI, so's Corky Miller, while Mike Burns accepted a minor league deal with the Red Sox.)

I can't figure what's up with Pena. His HR Rates have been good in the majors and he has had decent SLG. His majors OBP isn't great but as a lefty HR threat off the bench and a guy to give your 1B a breather there are worse guys. Quentin McCracken filled the lefty PH role for Cincy for much of 2006. He's not a star and probably not even a starter, but it seems like some team should have a major league job for him. He may not be a good fit here because he is a lefty and only plays 1B. Need a righty to platoon with Hat and maybe eventually Votto.

He turns 29 in May and that is working against him now.

wolfboy
10-14-2006, 06:13 PM
You're probably right about League. My logic was simply that he was "pimped" as you say, then suddenly Ryan is signed and he is pushed to the back a little so there may be some possibility he isn't a central figure in Toronto's plans. He may be too expensive in terms of talent after emerging in the 2nd half.

Floyd had chances, but at a very young age. Different type of pitcher but similar situation to Lizard. Brought up young, failed a couple times and pushed to the background. in Lizard's case there seemed to be a back of the rotation guy in there somewhere it was just a matter of being ready. This year I think he showed it until his minor arm injuries and the Narron misuse did him in. Floyd is following the same pattern with a higher ceiling. Same organization too. If they've given up on him and he can be had for cheap, I stick him in AAA and see what happens. He may end up as one of those guys who puts it together in the pen. If he fails, he's Jose Acevedo. Not proposing trading much for him.

You may be right about Bruney. I think you probably are. But you never know about George. He may sign 10 bigger names in a reaction to not winning and push him off the roster. Young emerging talents have been rare with the Yankees lately and they are oftentimes traded for expensive aging vets in a shopping spree. Any cheap, no name Yankee under 25 is worth watching IMO.


I agree with your thinking here. If we could get the guy for a low price, and place him in AAA, I don't see the harm. We do have a few shiny prospects in the minors but little else. I'd rather see a younger guy that may have potential like Floyd over an older guy with no potential like Chris Michalak. I'm not enamored with Floyd's K/BB rates or K/9 rates, but they've been a lot better than anything a 35 year old Michalak has shown. If you can get a young guy like Floyd on the cheap, I'm all for it. It beats the strategy we've had, which is collecting the 30 and over no talents and hoping we find a gem. That strategy just won't work no matter how many names you rotate in and out.

TC81190
10-14-2006, 07:39 PM
Thanks.

I'd be thrilled with Blanton. Not sure the Reds have much they would want. Maybe Freel with all the IF injuries which seem to be chronic with Crosby and Ellis; and Payton and Bradley are both FA in the OF. They might want Deno. I'd rather trade Freel.

I'd trade both Freel and Deno folr Blanton, if they threw in a Brad Salmon-+25 yr old.-under 9 H/9, over 9 K/9-still-in-AAA type.

mth123
10-14-2006, 09:24 PM
I'd trade both Freel and Deno folr Blanton, if they threw in a Brad Salmon-+25 yr old.-under 9 H/9, over 9 K/9-still-in-AAA type.

I probably would as well.

M2
10-15-2006, 03:08 PM
In general, I think it's good policy to shop for arms you like that have "failed" with other teams. Most pitchers do fail a bit when they get to the majors. The key is to find the ones who'll start succeeding afterward.

Some random names of guys who've failed who interest me are:

Ryan Madson - Thrown into the starting rotation this season after two years in the pen. Had a lousy year in 2006, but should come back stronger and wiser in 2007. He's only 26.

Juan Cruz - Been around seemingly forever, but today is his 28th birthday (assuming you believe his birth cerrtificate). Still has a a dynamite arm and he showed flashes in 2006 with the D-Backs. Make him work off his fastball and you could have something special.

Kyle Davies - Totally unprepared for the majors in 2006 (8.38 ERA). All that means is the Braves peeled him before he was ripe. The stuff is there if you can wait until 2008 or 2009 for him to pay dividends.

Jason Hirsh - He's more of a fond wish as I doubt the Astros are willing to move him. He ruled AAA, but struggled in his first taste of the majors. He's a big guy and his mechanics could get wacky in his first full season in the majors (due to fatigue and stress), so he might be a year away from being a legitimate "failure" target.

Daniel Cabrera - He's a total wildman that not even Leo Mazzone could tame, but he doesn't turn 26 until next May. Time and the maturity that comes with its passing might be the main hurdle for him.

Scott Baker - He may have gone from untouchable to discount aisle in the course of a single season.

Jorge de la Rosa - The Royals go through young pitchers like toilet paper, but de la Rosa will turn 26 at the start of next season and he's got the ability to make hitters swing and miss. He's now got 144 major league IP under his belt too. On top of all of that, he's a lefty.

Charlie Haeger - He's likely got his failure in front of him, but he's a young knuckleballer and the White Sox likely won't want to put much trust in the flutterball as they attempt to get back into the playoffs in 2007.

Jae-Kuk Ryu - Another guy with some failure in front of him, but he might be lost in shuffle with the Baby Bears.

Joe Saunders - He's the #6 guy for the Halos at the moment. That could change. He's 25 and has a 5.06 ERA in 80 MLB IP. Another guy who might be your classic lefty who pieces it together in his later 20s.

11BarryLarkin11
10-15-2006, 03:19 PM
My two favorite undervalued players are Jayson Werth and Kevin Correia. I think each would be a nice risk/reward acquisition for us. Put Correia in the rotation and Werth in right field.

Falls City Beer
10-15-2006, 03:30 PM
My two favorite undervalued players are Jayson Werth and Kevin Correia. I think each would be a nice risk/reward acquisition for us. Put Correia in the rotation and Werth in right field.

I get the Corriea fascination, but I just can't get on board with the Werth stuff--he's 27, just broke his wrist (hate small bone breakages in hitters), and seems OB challenged.

He would provide nice pop off the bench, but I just don't see the guy as a starter. Super fringey talent.

11BarryLarkin11
10-15-2006, 03:57 PM
I get the Corriea fascination, but I just can't get on board with the Werth stuff--he's 27, just broke his wrist (hate small bone breakages in hitters), and seems OB challenged.

He would provide nice pop off the bench, but I just don't see the guy as a starter. Super fringey talent.


I like Werth, because to me, he can do just about everything on a ball field. Except, of course, stay on it. But, that's also the reason he's undervalued. He's injury prone. But, I think he's worth the chance.

There are two schools of scouting: statistical and traditional. For me, Werth passes both with flying colors. His stats are great and his mechanics/baseball IQ/tools/playing motions are very impressive.

First, from a statistical perspective.

Recently, John Dewan did a study that took a look at how a team's number of pitches seen per plate appearance correalated to runs scored. In short, the teams with the highest number of pitches seen per plate appearance scored the most runs. That's because the more pitches you see, the more disciplined you are. The more disciplined you are, the higher your OBP.

In 2005, the last year he played, Jayson Werth saw an astonishing 4.62 pitches per plate appearance!! Admittedly, some of that was due to his inability to make consistent contact (obviously, a strikeout requires at least 3 pitches and a walk at least 4), which was an even bigger problem than usual last year due to a wrist injury. But, for his career, Werth is at 4.48 per plate appearance, which is higher than Adam Dunn. In 2005, Werth had an IsoOBP (OBP-BA) of .104. He also had a BB/PA of .122 (Dunn had a BB/PA of .170). In short, Werth has great on base skills.

In 2004, when he was last totally healthy, Werth hit 16 homers in 290 ABs. That's one homer every 18.1 ABs. Adam Dunn hits one homer for every 14.0 ABs and Griffey is at one homer for every 14.7 ABs. Admittedly, that's a bit of cherry picking, but I think that was the last time he was able to play without a lingering injury. In short, Werth has very good power potential.

And, Werth has stolen 17 bases and been caught 3 times in his career. That's an 0.85 success rate, which is very impressive. He's fast for a big man and intelligent on the bases. His career secondary average is .315, so his numbers are rock solid.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4262

And, if you have John Dewan's Fielding Bible, check out how Werth fared in all three outfield spots in 2005. He was well above average in each. He can play any of the three outfield positions and play them very well. He'd be a better option in center than Griffey, a better option in left than Dunn, and likely a better option in right than anyone we have (maybe Freel could give him a run, but I think Freel has proven that he's not an everyday player). And, for his career, Werth has a higher Zone Rating in right field (.912) than Ichiro (.874). Granted, it's a smaller sample size (554 innings), but I think it's pretty clear that he's a very good defensive player.

And, from a traditional perspective. Werth is 6'4 and 210. He's got a quiet stance at the plate and a very smooth swing (though it can get long, as he is a big guy). He is susceptible to the strikeout due to the long swing, but he's got power to all fields.

Werth's throwing motion is a bit of a shortarm, but that's because he came up as a catcher and he does seem to maintain good arm strength. And, he certainly seems to have the high baseball IQ of a catcher, as he is a very good percentage player.

I'd recommend checking out the following link and watching a few of his highlights under the multimedia section. Maybe you'll be convinced.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=150029

To me, just to use a few current/recent Reds for comparison: Werth doesn't have the hitch in his swing that Kearns has or the lumbering outfield defense of Dunn or the terrible instincts of Wily Mo. In short, I think he could be very, very good in all facets of the game.

And, I think it's also telling that upon being installed as GM of the Dodgers, one of the first moves Paul DePodesta made was to acquire Jayson Werth.

For me, I have a much harder time finding something not to like about Jayson Werth.

Now all he has to do is stay healthy. ;)

mth123
10-15-2006, 09:41 PM
In general, I think it's good policy to shop for arms you like that have "failed" with other teams. Most pitchers do fail a bit when they get to the majors. The key is to find the ones who'll start succeeding afterward.

Some random names of guys who've failed who interest me are:

Ryan Madson - Thrown into the starting rotation this season after two years in the pen. Had a lousy year in 2006, but should come back stronger and wiser in 2007. He's only 26.

Juan Cruz - Been around seemingly forever, but today is his 28th birthday (assuming you believe his birth cerrtificate). Still has a a dynamite arm and he showed flashes in 2006 with the D-Backs. Make him work off his fastball and you could have something special.

Kyle Davies - Totally unprepared for the majors in 2006 (8.38 ERA). All that means is the Braves peeled him before he was ripe. The stuff is there if you can wait until 2008 or 2009 for him to pay dividends.

Jason Hirsh - He's more of a fond wish as I doubt the Astros are willing to move him. He ruled AAA, but struggled in his first taste of the majors. He's a big guy and his mechanics could get wacky in his first full season in the majors (due to fatigue and stress), so he might be a year away from being a legitimate "failure" target.

Daniel Cabrera - He's a total wildman that not even Leo Mazzone could tame, but he doesn't turn 26 until next May. Time and the maturity that comes with its passing might be the main hurdle for him.

Scott Baker - He may have gone from untouchable to discount aisle in the course of a single season.

Jorge de la Rosa - The Royals go through young pitchers like toilet paper, but de la Rosa will turn 26 at the start of next season and he's got the ability to make hitters swing and miss. He's now got 144 major league IP under his belt too. On top of all of that, he's a lefty.

Charlie Haeger - He's likely got his failure in front of him, but he's a young knuckleballer and the White Sox likely won't want to put much trust in the flutterball as they attempt to get back into the playoffs in 2007.

Jae-Kuk Ryu - Another guy with some failure in front of him, but he might be lost in shuffle with the Baby Bears.

Joe Saunders - He's the #6 guy for the Halos at the moment. That could change. He's 25 and has a 5.06 ERA in 80 MLB IP. Another guy who might be your classic lefty who pieces it together in his later 20s.

I like every name on the list. In random order:

I think the Angels may be waiting until they see what bats they can buy before trading anybody. I doubt they trade any starter (Saunders) until they see if Colon can come back.

I think Haeger, Baker and Madsen could all be had for things the Reds could offer. I like Madsen the best of the 3.

Hirsch would probably require a Dunn trade to be included. Davies would require something big as well I'd expect.

I've always liked Cabrera, but when Mazzone was with Atlanta, just about everyone the Braves gave up on ended up a disappointment. Not sure how much input Mazzone had, but if the Orioles make Cabrera available with Mazzone now there, that sends up a red flag IMO. They would probably want a major return and I wouldn't want to give it.

You never know what nutty thing the Cubs or Royals will do, so Ryu or de la Rosa may be worth a shot at getting cheaply.

I'm surprised Cruz didn't end up as the closer in Arizona. Since he didn't he may be available. I'm more skeptical of a guy 3 teams have given up on though.

These are all good names to add to the list. I agree with the observation about guys who were hyped big and failed. There are lots of examples of major finds this way. Brandon Phillips is a good example. So is Chris Carpenter.

mth123
10-15-2006, 10:03 PM
My two favorite undervalued players are Jayson Werth and Kevin Correia. I think each would be a nice risk/reward acquisition for us. Put Correia in the rotation and Werth in right field.

Just looked up Correia. You're right about him being undervalued. At least I didn't know he was as good as he was this year:) . He wasn't very good at AAA in 2005 and only started 3 times in 31 appearances. Then SF brings him up and gives him 11 starts. This year he looks like a decent guy for the 6th or 7th inning. Not sure what SF is planning for this guy. With Schmidt leaving, I wonder if they have plans for him in the rotation. I honestly know very little about him. You gave us a pretty good picture of Werth. Any more info on Correia?

Falls City Beer
10-15-2006, 10:07 PM
I like Werth, because to me, he can do just about everything on a ball field. Except, of course, stay on it. But, that's also the reason he's undervalued. He's injury prone. But, I think he's worth the chance.

There are two schools of scouting: statistical and traditional. For me, Werth passes both with flying colors. His stats are great and his mechanics/baseball IQ/tools/playing motions are very impressive.

First, from a statistical perspective.

Recently, John Dewan did a study that took a look at how a team's number of pitches seen per plate appearance correalated to runs scored. In short, the teams with the highest number of pitches seen per plate appearance scored the most runs. That's because the more pitches you see, the more disciplined you are. The more disciplined you are, the higher your OBP.

In 2005, the last year he played, Jayson Werth saw an astonishing 4.62 pitches per plate appearance!! Admittedly, some of that was due to his inability to make consistent contact (obviously, a strikeout requires at least 3 pitches and a walk at least 4), which was an even bigger problem than usual last year due to a wrist injury. But, for his career, Werth is at 4.48 per plate appearance, which is higher than Adam Dunn. In 2005, Werth had an IsoOBP (OBP-BA) of .104. He also had a BB/PA of .122 (Dunn had a BB/PA of .170). In short, Werth has great on base skills.

In 2004, when he was last totally healthy, Werth hit 16 homers in 290 ABs. That's one homer every 18.1 ABs. Adam Dunn hits one homer for every 14.0 ABs and Griffey is at one homer for every 14.7 ABs. Admittedly, that's a bit of cherry picking, but I think that was the last time he was able to play without a lingering injury. In short, Werth has very good power potential.

And, Werth has stolen 17 bases and been caught 3 times in his career. That's an 0.85 success rate, which is very impressive. He's fast for a big man and intelligent on the bases. His career secondary average is .315, so his numbers are rock solid.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4262

And, if you have John Dewan's Fielding Bible, check out how Werth fared in all three outfield spots in 2005. He was well above average in each. He can play any of the three outfield positions and play them very well. He'd be a better option in center than Griffey, a better option in left than Dunn, and likely a better option in right than anyone we have (maybe Freel could give him a run, but I think Freel has proven that he's not an everyday player). And, for his career, Werth has a higher Zone Rating in right field (.912) than Ichiro (.874). Granted, it's a smaller sample size (554 innings), but I think it's pretty clear that he's a very good defensive player.

And, from a traditional perspective. Werth is 6'4 and 210. He's got a quiet stance at the plate and a very smooth swing (though it can get long, as he is a big guy). He is susceptible to the strikeout due to the long swing, but he's got power to all fields.

Werth's throwing motion is a bit of a shortarm, but that's because he came up as a catcher and he does seem to maintain good arm strength. And, he certainly seems to have the high baseball IQ of a catcher, as he is a very good percentage player.

I'd recommend checking out the following link and watching a few of his highlights under the multimedia section. Maybe you'll be convinced.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=150029

To me, just to use a few current/recent Reds for comparison: Werth doesn't have the hitch in his swing that Kearns has or the lumbering outfield defense of Dunn or the terrible instincts of Wily Mo. In short, I think he could be very, very good in all facets of the game.

And, I think it's also telling that upon being installed as GM of the Dodgers, one of the first moves Paul DePodesta made was to acquire Jayson Werth.

For me, I have a much harder time finding something not to like about Jayson Werth.

Now all he has to do is stay healthy. ;)


He'd be a good guy to take a flyer on, but I wouldn't want my team to perceive a guy like Werth as a safe bet. His best tool is without a doubt power. And the Reds need power badly. If he can be gotten cheap, I'm all for it. If the Reds have to give up even a decent pitching prospect, I'd look elsewhere.

foxfire123
10-16-2006, 12:36 AM
How about a flyer on Gagne?

mth123
10-16-2006, 07:21 AM
How about a flyer on Gagne?

I was hoping for Gagne earlier but I looked a little closer and think I'd look elsewhere.

He had surgery for a herniated disk in his back which ended his season but earlier in the year he had an enflamed nerve in his elbow. He'd had surgery on it previously and never really showed the results of it. Even if the back is healed, the post elbow problem pitching is still in question IMO.

He has stated that he would take less money to remain a Dodger and, with Takashi Saito talking about going back to Japan, the Dodgers will probably want him.

With his stated preference for LA, a low-risk incentive laden deal won't get him in Cincy and guaranteed money is better spent elsewhere.

Pass unless the bottom falls out of all of this. WK has picked up a lot of guys no one else wanted. This would be a case where he should stay in that mode and not try to bid for him IMO.

11BarryLarkin11
10-16-2006, 08:59 PM
Just looked up Correia. You're right about him being undervalued. At least I didn't know he was as good as he was this year:) . He wasn't very good at AAA in 2005 and only started 3 times in 31 appearances. Then SF brings him up and gives him 11 starts. This year he looks like a decent guy for the 6th or 7th inning. Not sure what SF is planning for this guy. With Schmidt leaving, I wonder if they have plans for him in the rotation. I honestly know very little about him. You gave us a pretty good picture of Werth. Any more info on Correia?

Sure, I've been following him for a while. He pitched at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, the school that gave us Ozzie Smith, John Madden, and Weird Al Yankovich, and was drafted in the 4th round (#127 overall) of the 2002 draft by the Giants.

He rocketed through their system and made his Major League debut in 2003. Since that time, the Giants (in their infinite "wisdom") have bounced him back and forth between the minors and the majors. And, for good measure, they have switched his role continuously from starting to relieving. Personally, I think they have harmed his development by rushing him through the system, but they needed a starter in 2003 and he was the guy they tabbed.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Kevin-Correia.shtml

The reason I like Correia is that he has a very, very nice upside. When he's on, Kevin Correia he can be flat out dominant. He throws a heavy fastball with a LOT of movement and he has a solid changeup and breaking ball to go with it.

I actually wanted the Reds to trade Javier Valentin for Kevin Correia this past offseason. Obviously that didn't happen, but now I want them to trade David Ross for Correia. Not straight up, but with others added into the deal as needed. In fact, I'd love to see Joey Votto and David Ross dealt to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez and Kevin Correia, but that's all mentioned in another thread.

This year, the Giants kept him in the bullpen, after awarding the 5th starter job to Jamey Wright. Later, they went with Brad Hennessey in the 5th slot and kept Correia in the bullpen. But, Correia has expressed a strong preference for starting games, so the Giants made him into more of a long reliever. But, I think he’s best suited to starting and starting pitching is the one thing the 2007 Giants have in surplus (M.Morris, N.Lowry, M.Cain, B.Hennessey, T.Lincecum, J.Sancez, etc).

If you watch Correia, he really has some pretty electric stuff. He has good height (6'3), which helps him throw on a downward plane. His tremendous movement makes him very difficult to hit, but it also creates his one big problem, which is his walk rate. I think Correia would likely benefit from a change in scenery and a regular rotation slot where he wouldn't have to worry about looking over his shoulder.

There are fewer clips of Correia, but a few that may warrant a look.

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player_media.jsp?player_id=429781

To me, he seems to be a poor man's A.J. Burnett. A.J. had control problems early in his career (see: No-Hitter with 9 BBs), but got those under control. And, as he got them under control, his BB/9 rate fell and his K/9 rate increased, which is what we started to see out of Correia in 2006. Prior to this year, Correia walked 4+ hitters per nine innings, but struck out ~6.5 hitters per nine. In 2006, Correia cut his BB/9 to 2.8 and his K/9 rate increased to 7.4. Admittedly, this in relief, but I think he could excel as a starter.

If he maintains his improved control in the starting rotation, then I think he could become a legitimate number two starter. I really think that’s his ceiling.

Mike Matheny, who is by all accounts one of the best defensive catchers around, has stated that he has bruised his hand catching Kevin Correia, as the pitches have so much movement on them that Matheny can’t center the ball in the catcher’s mitt. If he’s that hard to catch, imagine how hard he is to hit!!

Correia has a live arm and can be dominant when he’s on. I remember a game he started against the Braves in 2005. He struck out 6 of the first 9 hitters he faced. He was pretty much unhittable for a stretch in that game. He didn't hold it together for the whole game, but he was dominant in the first few innings. And to me, short stretches of dominance are a good indicator of a pitcher's ceiling.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=250810115&page=boxscore

I still don't think the Giants value him as much as they should and they still don't have a defined role for him, but if he pitches again in 2007 like he did in 2006, that will no longer be the case. But, I'd love to see the Reds try and trade for him as he's got big upside, remains undervalued, and seems to be putting it altogether.

Given all the holes in the Giants lineup for 2007 and their penchant for dealing young pitchers, I think he'd be a great acquisition. But, time is likely running short, as he won't be "under the radar" for much longer.

mth123
10-16-2006, 10:32 PM
The reason I like Correia is that he has a very, very nice upside. When he's on, Kevin Correia he can be flat out dominant. He throws a heavy fastball with a LOT of movement and he has a solid changeup and breaking ball to go with it.

But, Correia has expressed a strong preference for starting games, so the Giants made him into more of a long reliever. But, I think he’s best suited to starting and starting pitching is the one thing the 2007 Giants have in surplus (M.Morris, N.Lowry, M.Cain, B.Hennessey, T.Lincecum, J.Sancez, etc).

If you watch Correia, he really has some pretty electric stuff. He has good height (6'3), which helps him throw on a downward plane. His tremendous movement makes him very difficult to hit, but it also creates his one big problem, which is his walk rate.

Great report. "Heavy fastball," "downward plane," sounds like a good fit for GABP. Seems like they want to get younger in the OF and IF. I don't want to trade Votto or Deno. Not sure I see why they need a catcher. Maybe they'd be up for a more pure reliever (Majik? Cormier?)

11BarryLarkin11
10-16-2006, 10:39 PM
Great report. "Heavy fastball," "downward plane," sounds like a good fit for GABP. Seems like they want to get younger in the OF and IF. I don't want to trade Votto or Deno. Not sure I see why they need a catcher. Maybe they'd be up for a more pure reliever (Majik? Cormier?)

Mike Matheny might be forced to retire due to concussion problems. And, the catcher who picked up the slack, Eliezer Alfonso, was kind of a non-prospect who had a good year. So, they aren't totally sold on him and are likely a bit wary to hand him the starting catcher job. I know I would be, as he had a K/BB ratio of 74/9 in 2006. That doesn't bode well for the future.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=28484

I'm not sure what they would want for Correia, but I think he'd be available. The Giants have a ton of good young pitching and a lot of holes to fill in their everyday 2007 lineup. You can't fill them all through free agency.

mth123
10-18-2006, 10:32 PM
I agree with your thinking here. If we could get the guy for a low price, and place him in AAA, I don't see the harm. We do have a few shiny prospects in the minors but little else. I'd rather see a younger guy that may have potential like Floyd over an older guy with no potential like Chris Michalak. I'm not enamored with Floyd's K/BB rates or K/9 rates, but they've been a lot better than anything a 35 year old Michalak has shown. If you can get a young guy like Floyd on the cheap, I'm all for it. It beats the strategy we've had, which is collecting the 30 and over no talents and hoping we find a gem. That strategy just won't work no matter how many names you rotate in and out.

Floyd got rocked pretty hard in the AFL the other day. He is probably getting cheaper.

M2
10-19-2006, 10:11 AM
Floyd got rocked pretty hard in the AFL the other day. He is probably getting cheaper.

I've never liked Floyd, he threw too many curves at too young an age. His fastball has been in steep retreat for years.

mth123
10-22-2006, 10:06 AM
I've never liked Floyd, he threw too many curves at too young an age. His fastball has been in steep retreat for years.

Floyd is more suspect than prospect at this point. Philly needs a catcher and the Reds have some excess there. I personally would target Happ (see original post) and ask for Floyd as a kicker. If this gets Larue $ off the books all the better. Both Happ and Floyd could be in reserve at AAA in 2007.

You never know when a guy will get it back together. Hector Carrasco pitched 100 pretty good innings for a pitching rich team this year. Guys can rebound when you think they're done sometimes. Floyd had a good 2nd half in AAA suggesting a rebound is possible.

BTW Happ was discussed on XM yesterday when a caller called in to John Sickels. Sickels said he didn't know much about him but was impressed that he maintained his numbers at AA. I think as the lists start coming out this offseason, Happ will be a little more known.