PDA

View Full Version : Dunn traded for what ( realistically )



Will M
10-12-2006, 11:25 PM
I've seen >100 possible trades for dunn.

Some say Dunn for E Santana or J Bonderman could happen.
Others say no way.

Some want MORE ( ie E Santana & one of the Angels top prospects ).

Some want to give Dunn away for junk.

I am not a big fan of Dunn.
I want the Reds defense improved for 2007 and that means Dunn or Jr in left and the other gone.
Trading Jr is problematic ( 10/5 rights and fan outrage ) so I think Dunn is more likely to be traded.
I realize Dunn's numbers last year were a slight dropoff from 2005 but I do believe there should be many teams desirable of a guy who hits 40 HRs with a .370 OBP.

So...realistically who would be calling Krisky & what can Krivsky get for Dunn?

What is the LEAST you would be willing to trade Dunn for?

My thoughts:

1. Angels ( of course ).

* Dunn & Cormier for Shields & O Cabrera.
The Angels want offense.
They also need a LH reliever.
They have 2 SS prospects.
From the Reds side they get a good defensive SS who can hit & a closer.

*Dunn straight up for E Santana.

2. Tigers ( pitching rich and need a LH hitter ).

*Dunn straight up for Bonderman.

*Dunn straight up for Rodney or Zumaya ( sp ) & one of the Tigers top AAA pitching prospects.

Zumaya ( sp ) & one of the Tigers top AAA pitching prospects is probably the minimum I want for Dunn.

- Dunn straight up for Rodney or Zumaya ( sp ) & Maroth or Miner.
I don't think this is enough.

3. Yankees. I don't think they have much to trade to the Reds.

4. Astros. Looking for another bat. Not sure what they could offer.

5. Cubs. Not sure what they could offer.

6. Dodgers?

7. Padres need offense.

mth123
10-12-2006, 11:33 PM
Keep Dunn.

I would need 3 top prospects that are ready. 1 who plays SS, one who is a starter and the other a high ceiling guy who doesn't play 3B. I think the Angels are the only team that has it and they have money to buy what they want (Soriano) without trading it all in one deal.

Tom Servo
10-12-2006, 11:36 PM
A thought I had today was Dunn to the Rangers for Michael Young. Dunn is a Texas boy and can play DH for a Rangers team who will probably want a power DH with Carlos Lee likely not staying, and we get a great hitting SS. Texas is apparently shopping Young, Texiera, and most of it's team around and owner Tom Hicks isn't very high on Young. I admit this doesn't solve any pitching problems but maybe you can throw in Coffey and a some other guys to get some pitchers from Texas.

dougdirt
10-13-2006, 12:16 AM
Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar.

Johnny Footstool
10-13-2006, 12:33 AM
Isn't Michael Young just as bad on defense as Felipe Lopez?

mth123
10-13-2006, 12:37 AM
Isn't Michael Young just as bad on defense as Felipe Lopez?

Yes!

dunner13
10-13-2006, 12:42 AM
Dunn for Bonderman sounds pretty good. Assuming that the reds commit to keep bonderman long term and that they go and sign some offense this offseason to replace dunn.

TeamSelig
10-13-2006, 12:54 AM
Don't think Detroit is going to do that deal.

Why trade a good young SP for a power hitting OFer? Power hitting OFers aren't that hard to come by

wheels
10-13-2006, 01:27 AM
Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

Kc61
10-13-2006, 01:56 AM
Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

I'm not sure the Reds should trade Dunn. I don't know what they can get for him. But it's not as simple as "don't sell low."

The issue with Dunn is his contract. He has a $13.5 million option for 2008. If you are the Reds, do you want this player at that point? If no, can you risk another bad season (or first half 2007) when his trade value may drop more?

And this is complicated further if, as I understand, his option year disappears if traded. If so, he is a one-year rental by the acquiring team.

I don't know the answer. But if the Reds get good offers for Dunn, they may feel that -- financially -- it makes sense to make the trade sooner instead of later. It's not that simple a question.

mth123
10-13-2006, 07:17 AM
I'm not sure the Reds should trade Dunn. I don't know what they can get for him. But it's not as simple as "don't sell low."

The issue with Dunn is his contract. He has a $13.5 million option for 2008. If you are the Reds, do you want this player at that point? If no, can you risk another bad season (or first half 2007) when his trade value may drop more?

And this is complicated further if, as I understand, his option year disappears if traded. If so, he is a one-year rental by the acquiring team.

I don't know the answer. But if the Reds get good offers for Dunn, they may feel that -- financially -- it makes sense to make the trade sooner instead of later. It's not that simple a question.

I'm with Wheels here. It would cost more than $13.5 Million on the market to replace his production. Even off his bad year where he "only" hit 40 HR with .370 OBP. I bet Soriano or even Lee get that much and they are older. The Reds need to turn that option into a 3 year deal at $12 to $13 million per IMO. Blow me away and I'd trade him.

mth123
10-13-2006, 07:34 AM
Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Natty Redlocks
10-13-2006, 07:54 AM
Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

Golly sakes...

How do you know his value is at its lowest?

It could go completely in the toilet next season.

Heavens to Betsy.

Will M
10-13-2006, 10:52 AM
Assuming you don't trade Dunn how exactly are you going to improve the team?

Even if we resign Aurillia, Weathers & Schowenweis we still need:
#3 SP, closer, SS or 2b, better defense & a better bench/depth.

Going into 2007 with the same team that was so painfully average in 2006 can't happen. We all hope Bailey & maybe Votto will be ready this year but rookies shouldn't be counted on too much ( they have their ups & downs ).

So if we keep Dunn how do we improve the team?

registerthis
10-13-2006, 10:57 AM
Golly sakes...

How do you know his value is at its lowest?

It could go completely in the toilet next season.

Heavens to Betsy.


Well it's lower than at any other point during his career. let's just leave it at that.

I mean, Holy Moses.

BRM
10-13-2006, 10:59 AM
So if we keep Dunn how do we improve the team?

Spend money on free agents? I don't know how much Bob is willing to spend though.

lollipopcurve
10-13-2006, 11:30 AM
Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

In key offensive indicators, Dunn has been going in the wrong direction at an age when you generally see players improving. If this trend continues, come this time next year he'll be going into the last year of his contract (at 13+million) -- one year older, one year from FA, one year deeper into a declining trend. In other words, his trade value will be lower, perhaps significantly so. There is risk in keeping Dunn, and risk in trading him. At the least, the Reds need to be exploring the market for him.

Jpup
10-13-2006, 11:43 AM
Trading Adam Dunn would be beyond stupid.

ChatterRed
10-13-2006, 11:59 AM
Trading Adam Dunn would be beyond stupid.

No more stupid than your comment.

This team has alot of problems. Namely, overpaying for very little production and poor defense. Junior and Dunn are outfield liabilities and when they're not producing, what's the point of paying them $20-$30 million? There are many other options that are either cheaper or comparable that will produce better. Heck, I'd even pay a little more just to actually get some PRODUCTION.

Keeping Dunn and Junior mean that there is no money to spend on Free Agency. It means we have no trading chips to improve the club. It means this team will be exactly the same next season with most likely the same result or worse.

Jpup
10-13-2006, 12:07 PM
No more stupid than your comment.

This team has alot of problems. Namely, overpaying for very little production and poor defense. Junior and Dunn are outfield liabilities and when they're not producing, what's the point of paying them $20-$30 million? There are many other options that are either cheaper or comparable that will produce better. Heck, I'd even pay a little more just to actually get some PRODUCTION.

Keeping Dunn and Junior mean that there is no money to spend on Free Agency. It means we have no trading chips to improve the club. It means this team will be exactly the same next season with most likely the same result or worse.

Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

SultanOfSwing
10-13-2006, 12:11 PM
In key offensive indicators, Dunn has been going in the wrong direction at an age when you generally see players improving. If this trend continues, come this time next year he'll be going into the last year of his contract (at 13+million) -- one year older, one year from FA, one year deeper into a declining trend. In other words, his trade value will be lower, perhaps significantly so. There is risk in keeping Dunn, and risk in trading him. At the least, the Reds need to be exploring the market for him.
I think Krivsky will do with Dunn what Cashman will do with AROD. He will not aggressively try to deal him. Instead he will sit back and wait until he is blown away by an offer. There seem to be a lot of power bats available this winter. Krivsky's best move may be to wait until ST or sometime into the season when a team gets desperate.

You mention Dunn is not progressing. I think that is a fluke. Dunn seems to work hard at his hitting. And no one is more critical of himself. He never makes excuses. Dunn above anybody realizes 2006 was his worst year, and I believe he will work hard to fix that. I am sure Krivsky realizes all of this and thus will not actively seek a Dunn trade.

boognish
10-13-2006, 12:14 PM
Keeping Dunn and Junior mean that there is no money to spend on Free Agency. It means we have no trading chips to improve the club. It means this team will be exactly the same next season with most likely the same result or worse.

I think any way you slice it, right now it would be something of an upset if the Reds were to get enough pieces to help them (read: sizeable net gain in run differential) next season for Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey.

Teams just aren't going to give up much when the money difference and/or production difference between the player for whom they are trading and a potential free agent signee is negligible. Why give up high-ceiling prospects, especially multiple high-ceiling prospects, for a guy with blemishes AND a 10M/year price tag?

I just don't see the potential return being a #1 starter, high-ceiling prospects, or enough above AAAA level major league starters to fill all of the Reds' gaping holes...which brings us full circle...why get rid of Dunn OR Griffey if you are only getting .70 (if that) on the dollar?

Jpup
10-13-2006, 12:18 PM
I think that you have, at least, 25 other teams that would give Adam Dunn 10 million per, to play for them.

registerthis
10-13-2006, 12:21 PM
Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

I'd also be curious to hear the idea for getting rid of Junior, what with his declining abilities, exhorbitant contract, 10/5 rights and whatnot.

Spring~Fields
10-13-2006, 01:02 PM
going into the last year of his contract (at 13+million) -- one year older, one year from FA,

Scary thought. If his career numbers stay consistent, will he be worth even more money at then end of that contract? Will he want to be with a team more likely to contend than the Reds? Will the Reds be able to get anything for him at such a salary and his ability to walk?

Natty Redlocks
10-13-2006, 01:41 PM
I think Krivsky will do with Dunn what Cashman will do with AROD. He will not aggressively try to deal him. Instead he will sit back and wait until he is blown away by an offer. There seem to be a lot of power bats available this winter. Krivsky's best move may be to wait until ST or sometime into the season when a team gets desperate.


This I definitely agree with. He won't get a good deal until teams who think they're getting Soriano or Lee miss out on them. I'd like to see them sign a decent replacement bat early on, just in case a trade happens later.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 02:04 PM
Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar.

Angels are looking for help in center, 3rd base and lst base. You might need to make it a three-way to work.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 02:08 PM
Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

If you look at Dunn's numbers closer you'll see he gets alot of home runs and RBIs when the game isn't on the line. His average .221 with runners in scoring position shows me he isn't able to carry this team.

westofyou
10-13-2006, 02:13 PM
If you look at Dunn's numbers closer you'll see he gets alot of home runs and RBIs when the game isn't on the line. His average .221 with runners in scoring position shows me he isn't able to carry this team.
And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons, but hey... let's just use his RISP from this year to make decisions.

SultanOfSwing
10-13-2006, 02:17 PM
And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons, but hey... let's just use his RISP from this year to make decisions.
Agreed. ;)

savafan
10-13-2006, 03:14 PM
When I'm paying Adam Dunn's salary, I'll worry about how much money he's making. Until then, I don't care. ;)

Will M
10-13-2006, 04:20 PM
I agree with what a few others said - wait until Soriano & Lee sign then trade Dunn to a team who really needs more offense. I don't think we need to wait until next season , just wait until ~December.

I think we trade Dunn for young pitching ( if we can ) then try to replace his offense partially with free agent/trade. The defense will improve greatly if Griffey moves to left and Dunn is gone.

I think the Reds need to look at 2008/2009 and plan to be contenders year after year ( similar to the Cards or Twins ).
We have a lot of dead weight ( LaRue, Milton, Griffey ) which really limits our options.

I also think Dunn's value will be less a year from now. There is ZERO sign that he is getting better.

jmac
10-13-2006, 04:30 PM
And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons.
dont be surprised if edwin takes the team rbi crown from dunn in 07.
2006
EE 406 AB'S 72 RBI
dunn 561 AB'S 92 RBI

pedro
10-13-2006, 04:32 PM
If you look at Dunn's numbers closer you'll see he gets alot of home runs and RBIs when the game isn't on the line. His average .221 with runners in scoring position shows me he isn't able to carry this team.

that's a blatant falsehood that has been refuted here more times than I can count.

RISP numbers don't have anything to do with whether the runs produced occur when the game is on the line.

If you really believe that Dunn's HR's come at points when game isn't on the line go through his HR's over the last 4 years and list how many are meaningless for us. I've done it before so I know you're wrong. maybe you should do it too to rather than just say something is true when you really don't know whether it is or not.

if you were really looking closely at his numbers you should be able to provide some research to back up your point.

westofyou
10-13-2006, 04:36 PM
dont be surprised if edwin takes the team rbi crown from dunn in 07.
2006
EE 406 AB'S 72 RBI
dunn 561 AB'S 92 RBI

Don't be surprised that Dunn scores on a bunch of those too.

Trade Dunn for magic beans and watch Edwin win the RBI crown of the Reds with a robust 84, BTW I don't really care about RBI's but when a guy leads the team in Runs and RBI's for 3 seasons and then has to hear he can't carry the team I start to wonder why the rest of the team doesn't get more crap.

jmac
10-13-2006, 04:53 PM
Don't be surprised that Dunn scores on a bunch of those too.

Trade Dunn for magic beans and watch Edwin win the RBI crown of the Reds with a robust 84, BTW I don't really care about RBI's but when a guy leads the team in Runs and RBI's for 3 seasons and then has to hear he can't carry the team I start to wonder why the rest of the team doesn't get more crap.

my comment was more toward the potential of encarnacion than a knock of dunn.i believe dunn is what he is.
you can expect 40 hrs 100 rbi's.unless he proves otherwise...i dont expect a 290 avg or 140 rbi's.
as far as dunn scoring the runs....based on narron's lineups late in season or till the major team slump hit...my guess would be EE 4th dunn 5th depending on trades etc

Krusty
10-13-2006, 05:25 PM
And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons, but hey... let's just use his RISP from this year to make decisions.

And I guess you'll say Dunn is on the same level as Albert Pujols?

BRM
10-13-2006, 05:26 PM
And I guess you'll say Dunn is on the same level as Albert Pujols?

No one is on the same level as Pujols.

westofyou
10-13-2006, 05:35 PM
And I guess you'll say Dunn is on the same level as Albert Pujols?
The world ain't black and white, so don't try to fit me into it that way.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 05:36 PM
The world ain't black and white, so don't try to fit me into it that way.

You're the one with the man love for Adam Dunn.

SultanOfSwing
10-13-2006, 05:36 PM
No one is on the same level as Pujols.
I could make an argument for AROD, Cabrera, Howard, Vlad, Ortiz, and maybe Morneau.

BRM
10-13-2006, 05:38 PM
I could make an argument for AROD, Cabrera, Howard, Vlad, Ortiz, and maybe Morneau.

As a hitter, I'd take Albert over all of them.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 05:38 PM
I could make an argument for AROD, Cabrera, Howard, Vlad, Ortiz, and maybe Morneau.

And you're saying that Dunn is as good as these guys?

BRM
10-13-2006, 05:38 PM
And you're saying that Dunn is as good as these guys?

I thought he was saying those guys are on the same level as Pujols.

pedro
10-13-2006, 05:40 PM
Krusty, I'm looking forward to that data to back up your contention. You should have it on hand as you say you've already "looked at his numbers closely".

westofyou
10-13-2006, 05:46 PM
You're the one with the man love for Adam Dunn.

That's it?

I love Adam Dunn?

Come on.. you can do better then that can't you?

Krusty
10-13-2006, 05:49 PM
Krusty, I'm looking forward to that data to back up your contention. You should have it on hand as you say you've already "looked at his numbers closely".

Sorry don't have the time. I watched enough games though to know that Dunn doesn't strike the same fear as Junior does late in games.

But if you look at these stats, tell me what outstanding months did Dunn have other than July? For a lefthanded hitter, he batted .215 against righthanded pitching.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=276055&statType=1

23 out of his 40 home runs came with the bases empty. Only 13 home runs and 59 RBIs came with runners in scoring position.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=276055&sitSplit1=All&statType=1&statSet=1&splitSet=2

Yeah, I'm looking at the stats and I'm not impressed with what I see.

pedro
10-13-2006, 05:55 PM
Sorry don't have the time. I watched enough games though to know that Dunn doesn't strike the same fear as Junior does late in games.

But if you look at these stats, tell me what outstanding months did Dunn have other than July? For a lefthanded hitter, he batted .215 against righthanded pitching.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=276055&statType=1

23 out of his 40 home runs came with the bases empty. Only 13 home runs and 59 RBIs came with runners in scoring position.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=276055&sitSplit1=All&statType=1&statSet=1&splitSet=2

Yeah, I'm looking at the stats and I'm not impressed with what I see.



That does nothing to prove that the runs he produced were inconsequential.

We all know he had a down year, that's not the point.

Neverthess, I'm not surprised to hear that you're not willing to even take the time to truly find out if what you are saying is BS or not.

Go through the game logs and show us how those runs he produced were worthless. I dare you.

You probably won't though, you'll just make more cracks about man love. And boy let me tell you, that's really impressive.

Spring~Fields
10-13-2006, 05:57 PM
23 out of his 40 home runs came with the bases empty. Only 13 home runs and 59 RBIs came with runners in scoring position.



Wow I did not know that!

How many came when the game was out of reach and they really did not matter?
How many came against pitchers that were just terrible that day or for the season?

BRM
10-13-2006, 06:00 PM
Only 13 home runs and 59 RBIs came with runners in scoring position.


Both of those numbers led the Reds by the way.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 06:01 PM
That does nothing to prove that the runs he produced were inconsequential.

We all know he had a down year, that's not the point.

Neverthess, I'm not surprised to hear that you're not willing to even take the time to truly find out if what you are saying is BS or not.

Go through the game logs and show us how those runs he produced were worthless. I dare you.

You probably won't though, you'll just make more cracks about man love. And boy let me tell you, that's really impressive.


I don't know what else to say other than take off those rose color glasses you have toward Dunn. I showed you the stats for the season overall. He should have torn up righthanded pitching. 23 of those home runs were solo shots. Wow, I'm impressed. 59 RBIS with runners in scoring position? Guy doesn't remind me of the Big Dog Tony Perez. And I haven't even mentioned his defensive deficiencies. But ignore the stats I produced. With the exception of July, he struggled all year.

Dunn was the primary reason why Chambliss wasn't rehired. His game wasn't improving with the bat and Chambliss has been the hitting coach for three seasons. If anything, Dunn will probably be with the Reds come 2007 with the hope a new hitting coach can change his approach. But how committed Dunn is to upgrading his game remains a question.

pedro
10-13-2006, 06:03 PM
Wow I did not know that!

How many came when the game was out of reach and they really did not matter?
How many came against pitchers that were just terrible that day or for the season?


I can't find the post now, but I went through all his game logs from 2004-2005 earlier this season to show how few of Dunn's HR's came when the game was already out of hand. It wasn't very many at all. Haven't done it for this season because I'm tire of banging my head against the wall to refute BS spouted by folks who aren't even willing to do a little research to back their contentions.

This really isn't to single Krusty out as he's not the only one who does this, but there is a common thread among Dunn bashers and it's that they generally like to say things but are very unwilling to do any work to find out if the things they say are true or not.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 06:03 PM
Both of those numbers led the Reds by the way.

Which is sad. And if you look at the Reds won-lost record, it should have been worse than it was.

pedro
10-13-2006, 06:06 PM
I don't know what else to say other than take off those rose color glasses you have toward Dunn. I showed you the stats for the season overall. He should have torn up righthanded pitching. 23 of those home runs were solo shots. Wow, I'm impressed. 59 RBIS with runners in scoring position? Guy doesn't remind me of the Big Dog Tony Perez. And I haven't even mentioned his defensive deficiencies. But ignore the stats I produced. With the exception of July, he struggled all year.

Dunn was the primary reason why Chambliss wasn't rehired. His game wasn't improving with the bat and Chambliss has been the hitting coach for three seasons. If anything, Dunn will probably be with the Reds come 2007 with the hope a new hitting coach can change his approach. But how committed Dunn is to upgrading his game remains a question.

I never said Dunn had a good year.

I'm not impressed with your analysis. You still haven't done a thing to prove your point. If you want to know what else to say, go through the game logs and prove to me that those runs Dunn produced were meaningless.

Spring~Fields
10-13-2006, 06:09 PM
I can't find the post now, but I went through all his game logs from 2004-2005 earlier this season to show how few of Dunn's HR's came when the game was already out of hand. It wasn't very many at all.

Ok, thank you pedro, I really did not know. I should do more research vs observation it shows.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 06:09 PM
I can't find the post now, but I went through all his game logs from 2004-2005 earlier this season to show how few of Dunn's HR's came when the game was already out of hand. It wasn't very many at all. Haven't done it for this season because I'm tire of banging my head against the wall to refute BS spouted by folks who aren't even willing to do a little research to back their contentions.

This really isn't to single Krusty out as he's not the only one who does this, but there is a common thread among Dunn bashers and it's that they generally like to say things but are very unwilling to do any work to find out if the things they say are true or not.


So I guess you just ignore the batting averages for the months too and that he batted .215 against righthanders. I guess it doesn't matter his stats declined after the allstar break.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=276055&statType=1

But I can understand where you're coming from. I defend the Steelers Ben Rothlisberger like he is my son but to be honest.....his game pretty much has sucked so far this season. And I can honestly say the same thing about Dunn improving his game.
b

jmac
10-13-2006, 06:13 PM
We all know he had a down year

look....i dont get in alot of dunn talk because to me, he is not terrible but not great either. i would love to see him hit 50 hr 130 rbi.
however you said he had a "down year".
his last 3 years he has had:
46...102
40....101
40....92
hrs/rbi that is
bb 108/114/112

avg has went from 266/247/234
i guess my question is a down year or pretty normal year? #'s with exception of rbi's being down slightly havent varied much.
that is why i say i expect 40/100 from dunn. I hope for more but expect that.

Johnny Footstool
10-13-2006, 06:25 PM
Both of those numbers led the Reds by the way.

:laugh:

pedro
10-13-2006, 06:31 PM
So I guess you just ignore the batting averages for the months too and that he batted .215 against righthanders. I guess it doesn't matter his stats declined after the allstar break.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=cin&playerID=276055&statType=1

But I can understand where you're coming from. I defend the Steelers Ben Rothlisberger like he is my son but to be honest.....his game pretty much has sucked so far this season. And I can honestly say the same thing about Dunn improving his game.
b

you can keep on talking, but you still haven't done anything to prove your contention that Dunn's HR's come at times when they didn't matter. The only thing that will do that is to go through the game logs and list what the score was when he hit his HR.

I know Dunn had a poor second half and that July was the only truly good month he had all year I never said he didn't. I also know that his OPS with RISP was .923 and that in those situations he drove in 59 runners in 139 AB's. (1 RBI every 2.40 AB's with RISP)

Rich Aurilia OTOH had an OPS of .836 with RISP with 48 RBI's in 118 AB's (1 RBI every 2.46 AB's with RISP)

23 or Dunn's 40 HR's were solo (57 %) . 13 of Aurilia's 23 HR's were solo (57 %).


Looks to me that Dunn performs just as well on the whole with RISP as Aurilia, who due to his fine second half of the season is viewed as "mr. clutch" by many.

I'll agree that Dunn's game is not pretty to watch. Neverthess, he does produce, despite his deficiencies.

TMBS, I'd certainly hope Dunn has a better 2007 than 2006 because if he doesn't that 13 million dollar option for 2008 might not be such a good deal.


edit: when I looked this stuff I also found out that EE had 55 RBI's with 109 ab's with RISP. He raked this year. Hope he keeps that hope.

westofyou
10-13-2006, 06:34 PM
look....i dont get in alot of dunn talk because to me, he is not terrible but not great either. i would love to see him hit 50 hr 130 rbi.
however you said he had a "down year".
his last 3 years he has had:
46...102
40....101
40....92
hrs/rbi that is
bb 108/114/112

avg has went from 266/247/234
i guess my question is a down year or pretty normal year? #'s with exception of rbi's being down slightly havent varied much.
that is why i say i expect 40/100 from dunn. I hope for more but expect that.

RBI's are sooooo team dependant

In 2004 and 2005 the Resd also had this many players with over 67 rus scored (aside from Dunn) This year after Dunn the high guy was Freel wth 67.

It helps a bit if their more opportunities, this year despite Dunn's slumping thei were less opportunities across the board for the Reds.


RUNS YEAR R
3 Sean Casey 2004 101
4 Felipe Lopez 2005 97
5 Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 85
6 D'Angelo Jimenez 2004 76
7 Sean Casey 2005 75
8 Ryan Freel 2004 74
9 Ryan Freel 2005 69

Kc61
10-13-2006, 06:45 PM
Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.

If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.

Krusty
10-13-2006, 07:25 PM
Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.

If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.


As mentioned before, I think the Reds will hang onto Dunn and hope a new hitting coach can improve his game.

dougdirt
10-13-2006, 07:54 PM
As mentioned before, I think the Reds will hang onto Dunn and hope a new hitting coach can improve his game.

I can only hope.

RedRoser
10-13-2006, 08:02 PM
Well, let's just say that the "Sultan of Swing" :help: is traded for "money for nothing and the chicks for free". . .:laugh:

Natty Redlocks
10-13-2006, 08:17 PM
Well, let's just say that the "Sultan of Swing" :help: is traded for "money for nothing and the chicks for free". . .:laugh:

At least he knows how to take a "Walk of Life".....

savafan
10-13-2006, 09:31 PM
Let's just sell Dunn for enough cash so that RCast can finance his Broadway play ;)

Spring~Fields
10-13-2006, 11:50 PM
Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.
If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.

If that is true then a team that was interested in having Dunn would consider that they might only have his services for one year. I would think that they would not be willing to give up very much in return on what might be similar to a one year rental. If the Reds keep him and as you say cannot trade him after 07, then they would risk getting nothing for him except freeing up salary if he chose to walk after 08? Do I have the correct understanding?

Kc61
10-14-2006, 01:52 AM
If that is true then a team that was interested in having Dunn would consider that they might only have his services for one year. I would think that they would not be willing to give up very much in return on what might be similar to a one year rental. If the Reds keep him and as you say cannot trade him after 07, then they would risk getting nothing for him except freeing up salary if he chose to walk after 08? Do I have the correct understanding?

According to the press reports, yes. Except I don't know if you are right about what teams would give up for one year of Dunn at $10.5 million.

If a team thought they could sign Dunn long term, perhaps a Texas team, maybe these contract issues would not impact the deal too much.

captain11
10-14-2006, 01:29 PM
I don't know what the Reds can really hope for in terms of Dunn. He is really only about a 1 or 1 1/2 tool player. If he stays, we really need to get him to 1B and if he goes we really need to look for a true leadoff hitter or a closer.

TC81190
10-14-2006, 07:31 PM
Keep Dunn.

I would need 3 top prospects that are ready. 1 who plays SS, one who is a starter and the other a high ceiling guy who doesn't play 3B. I think the Angels are the only team that has it and they have money to buy what they want (Soriano) without trading it all in one deal.


Good luck ever meeting those expectations, even when Dunn's at his best.

Will M
10-15-2006, 08:38 PM
lets assume we don't trade Dunn or Griffey and we resign Aurillia and Weathers. This gets us the same team that finished 2006 minus Franklin, Schowenweis ( who we could resign ), Guadaro ( who is done ) & Merker ( who is done ). This team went 80-82. Any normal year they wouldn't have been close to the playoffs.

C: Valentin/Ross/LaRue
1B: Aurillia/Hatteberg ( Votto will play in AAA for the first 3 months of 2007 )
2B: ?Harris/Aurillia/Freel
SS: Phillips
3B: EE
LF: Dunn
CF: Denorfia & Freel
RF: Griffey

SP: Harang Arroyo Lohse Milton EZ/Claussen
( Bailey will play in AAA for the first 3 months of 2007 )

RP: Bray Majik Coffey Cormier Weathers Belisle

this team does have 2 good starters, a deep decent pen & EE.
it also has poor OF defense ( Dunn, Griffey ) &, several players who might not have the 2007 numbers they had in 2006.

what this team lacks to compete at top levels is:

1. a #3 starter. someone who can give 200 IP with a sub 4.00 era.

2. another stud player who can contribute offensively and play defense.
Either 2b, ss ( with Phillips at 2b ) or cf ( with Deno on the bench and Freel at 2b )

3. a closer

Can all be had in the free agent market and/or finding someone to take Milton and LaRue? I doubt it. That is why I am willing to trade Dunn if the right offer comes along.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
10-16-2006, 12:58 AM
Talking about trading dunn, this brings to mind a few possitive aspects of the Kearns Lopez trade. First usually we are talking about how we need to shore up the bullpen and if maj gets healthy, i dont think we need much help unless a top notch closer is available, so we can use the bullpen money we blow every season elsewere( no more old man at the end of his carreer to help the youngins in the pen signings) Second It freed up some cash that we can use for pitching. And last there was such an outcry about the trade that if we do trade Dunn WK will be scared to death of taking anything but a great deal in return, and my guess is that they will go through a very exstensive health exam.( Grab your @&%$# and cough )
One more thing ive been meaning to bring up, anyone out there have any thoughts on doc hollywood being the reds doctor. Does this give us an inside track on players coming off of tommy john type procedures, and do you think he is consulted before any such signing.

Wheelhouse
10-16-2006, 04:25 AM
Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

You can't get a 40 HR hitter for 10 MM. However you could get a 25 HR guy (who would become a 30-33 HR guy at GABP) who is a crack defender, and a quality situational hitter for 10 MM. You could get one for 8 MM. This is what needs to be understood: GABP is perfectly configured for a mid-market team. They should go out and get affordable mid-level bats who are top defenders. Their numbers will increase at GABP. What does it matter if a HR goes 5 feet over the wall or 50? This is why a hitter like Dunn is a waste of money here. He should be in a cavernous park where his power has higher value.

Raisor
10-16-2006, 10:58 AM
So I guess you just ignore the batting averages for the months too

Heck, I pretty much just ignore batting averages all the time.

lollipopcurve
10-16-2006, 12:32 PM
GABP is perfectly configured for a mid-market team. They should go out and get affordable mid-level bats who are top defenders. Their numbers will increase at GABP. What does it matter if a HR goes 5 feet over the wall or 50?

This is what makes me very curious about how this regime will approach the FA market. For hitters, the ballpark can be a real draw. For pitchers, it'll be a place to avoid. Of course, money can override the appeal/lack of appeal of a ballpark, but, knowing that the Reds aren't going to outspend all other teams for the most desireable players, you still have to figure GABP is going to be a significant factor when "mid-level" players come to making a final decision about where to sign. As Wheelhouse suggests, it may not be that difficult to replace -- or nearly replace -- the lost offense from the Washington deal (or a possible Dunn deal), given the enticements of our homer-happy park and a respectable outlay of Castellini funny money.

11BarryLarkin11
10-16-2006, 09:54 PM
Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

I've been thinking quite a lot about it lately and I really don't think it's as difficult to replace Dunn as we might think. When you talk about replacing Adam Dunn, you're really only talking about replacing power and patience. We don't have to replace a huge batting average, fantastic defense, or speed on the bases. What makes Dunn very valuable is power and patience. He hits a ton of homers and walks all day long. So, if you want to replace him, then you need to replace the lost walks and homers. That's about it.

And, I posted this thought in another thread, I think there's one guy out there who could go a long way to replacing Dunn. And, I think that's Morgan Ensberg.

2006
Adam Dunn BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .234/.365/.490/.855
PA: 683
BB: 112
AB: 561
H: 131
HR: 40

2006
Morgan Ensberg BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .235/.396/.463/.859
PA: 495
BB: 101
AB: 387
H: 91
HR: 23

So, in 188 fewer plate appearances Morgan Ensberg walked 11 fewer times than Adam Dunn. And, in 174 fewer ABs, Ensberg had 17 fewer homers and 40 fewer hits.

Given their rates of performance, if you extrapolate Ensberg's performance out over the same number of PAs & ABs as Dunn had in 2006 (683/561), then Ensberg would have finished 2006 with 139 walks (27 more than Dunn) and 33 homers (7 fewer than Dunn).

I suspect that Esnberg's walk rate will decrease a bit next year and he's admittedly never been as consistently healthy as Dunn, but he does have advantages that Dunn does not. For example, Ensberg is a good defensive player, which is a benefit that Dunn clearly doesn't provide.

Now, granted, this is all purely speculative, but I don't think it's as difficult as commonly held to replace Dunn, which is why I think the Reds should try to deal him and Rheal Cormier to Houston for a package of Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, and a pitcher (Lidge? Wheeler? Qualls? Hirsh?).

Ensberg would go a long way towards replacing Dunn's production, Everett is the best defensive shortstop in baseball, and we could use a good reliever or a young pitching prospect.

When you look at the benefits from what we would add and how minimal the lost production would be, I think you can make a strong case for dealing Dunn. Not to mention, if third player in the deal is anyone but Lidge, then we'd be saving money.

But, even if the particulars of this specific deal don't work, I think given the right deal, trading Dunn can be done without too much damage done.

Any food for thought. Just my $.02.

Degenerate39
10-16-2006, 11:17 PM
Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

No one but who can we get for 10 million that can be a good outfielder and bat .300

kaldaniels
10-17-2006, 12:45 AM
Both of those numbers led the Reds by the way.

Answer this my friend, who led the Reds in strikeouts w/RISP. I don't know the answer, but I have a hunch.

Raisor
10-17-2006, 11:56 AM
Answer this my friend, who led the Reds in strikeouts w/RISP. I don't know the answer, but I have a hunch.


Who led the Reds in Kicked Puppies w/RISP? WHO!? I must know!!!!

westofyou
10-17-2006, 12:02 PM
Answer this my friend, who led the Reds in strikeouts w/RISP. I don't know the answer, but I have a hunch.

7.13 RC/27 with RISP, 1st on the team in EBH with RISP (tied with EE) Highest OB% with RISP, highest slg% and highest OPS.

For someone who strikes out all the time he sure leads the team in a mess of catagories.