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View Full Version : My Offseason Wish: Aaron Heilman



Superdude
10-14-2006, 11:56 AM
I've always liked him, but after watching him last night, I think WayneK should REALLY take a look at trading for Heilman. I guess the Mets aren't all that high on him, because they've yet to give him a chance in the rotation, so maybe we could get him cheap and make him our #3 starter? He was throwing 95-97MPH last night with tons of movement and a good changeup. Apparently he was vocal about wanting to be a starter this year. He's got three quality pitches and logged over 150 innings in 2004, so I don't see any reason why he can't start. Here's his numbers the last two years...

195IP 3.37ERA 8.26K/9 3.00BB/9 .51HR/9 1.15WHIP

If he could pull off something even close to that, we've got a real good shot at the playoffs next year. How much value do you think Aurilia will have this offseason. He's getting old, but he was a beast this year and comes pretty cheap. I wonder if we could ship him to the Jays for Francisco Rosario? Just a few thoughts.

mth123
10-14-2006, 03:30 PM
Aurilia is a free agent. No shipping him anywhere. I like the Heilman Idea. Not sure the mets want anything the Reds have.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 03:35 PM
Homer Bailey and Ed Encarnacion for Jose Reyes and Aaron Heilman?

pahster
10-14-2006, 04:19 PM
Homer Bailey and Ed Encarnacion for Jose Reyes and Aaron Heilman?

Where would the Mets play EE?

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 04:21 PM
Where would the Mets play EE?

First, and trade Delgado (if they're smart).

OnBaseMachine
10-14-2006, 04:52 PM
Homer Bailey and Ed Encarnacion for Jose Reyes and Aaron Heilman?

No. Encarnacion will be a better player than Reyes, and Heilman projects more as a number three starter while Bailey will be an ace. No way would I pull the trigger on this deal.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 06:05 PM
No. Encarnacion will be a better player than Reyes, and Heilman projects more as a number three starter while Bailey will be an ace. No way would I pull the trigger on this deal.

Maybe EdE's better with the stick, but he doesn't play short; and it's not exactly like Reyes is a bum with the bat. And I don't see the ceiling that others do with Bailey; I'd rather fix the bullpen with some sure things.

The Reds address three glaring needs in this deal--defense, speed, and immediate bullpen help.

OnBaseMachine
10-14-2006, 06:29 PM
Maybe EdE's better with the stick, but he doesn't play short; and it's not exactly like Reyes is a bum with the bat. And I don't see the ceiling that others do with Bailey; I'd rather fix the bullpen with some sure things.

The Reds address three glaring needs in this deal--defense, speed, and immediate bullpen help.

EdE is going to a perennial .295/.380/.520+ hitter with 45+ doubles and 25+ homers. Oh, and I guarantee you he will win a gold glove someday.

Just curious, what type of potential do you see in Bailey?

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 06:34 PM
.

Just curious, what type of potential do you see in Bailey?

Kerry Wood-esque flameout who would be served well to go to the pen ASAP.

He might make it to the majors; heck, he might even have a starter's career, but it won't be the Reds who successfully bring him along. Might as well cash him in while his value as a member of the Reds is at its highest. Yes, I have that little faith in the Reds' development of players.

Dayton Red
10-14-2006, 06:36 PM
sorry, no way do the Mets make this trade. Reyes is going no where.
a lot of people get too high on the Reds players. I read where a lot of you wouldn't trade Dunn unless we get a #1 pitcher. What have we done with Dunn.
$10.5M for a defense liability that only hit .232. he hit 40 hr's and and only drove in 92 RBI's and before you tell me he hit 2nd a good amount of time, remember he hit clean up almost the whole month of Sept. and drove in 2 runs.
he has gotten worse of the last few years not better. I love the Reds like everyone else, but stop over overvaluing the Reds players.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 06:38 PM
sorry, no way do the Mets make this trade. Reyes is going no where.
a lot of people get too high on the Reds players. I read where a lot of you wouldn't trade Dunn unless we get a #1 pitcher. What have we done with Dunn.
$10.5M for a defense liability that only hit .232. he hit 40 hr's and and only drove in 92 RBI's and before you tell me he hit 2nd a good amount of time, remember he hit clean up almost the whole month of Sept. and drove in 2 runs.
he has gotten worse of the last few years not better. I love the Reds like everyone else, but stop over overvaluing the Reds players.

I'm sure you're right. I doubt the Mets make that deal too.

Just a thought. Farting out of my head so to speak.

OnBaseMachine
10-14-2006, 06:43 PM
Kerry Wood-esque flameout who would be served well to go to the pen ASAP.

He might make it to the majors; heck, he might even have a starter's career, but it won't be the Reds who successfully bring him along. Might as well cash him in while his value as a member of the Reds is at its highest. Yes, I have that little faith in the Reds' development of players.

OK. Why in the hell do you think he is the next Kerry Wood? Wood has awful mechanics while Bailey's is very fluid. You would love Bailey if he were a Cardinals or Astros prospect. I've seen you hype up Buchholz and Wainwright, and yet they don't have half the talent Homer Bailey has.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 06:51 PM
OK. Why in the hell do you think he is the next Kerry Wood? Wood has awful mechanics while Bailey's is very fluid. You would love Bailey if he were a Cardinals or Astros prospect. I've seen you hype up Buchholz and Wainwright, and yet they don't have half the talent Homer Bailey has.

Dude, when Wood came up he was roundly hailed for the simplicity and smoothness of his delivery and mechanics.

But I don't care about Bailey's mechanics--he's a Reds prospect; he'll flame out. Get something for him while you can. Quit acting like he's the only fish in the sea and start collecting some guarantees along the way.

OnBaseMachine
10-14-2006, 06:55 PM
Dude, when Wood came up he was roundly hailed for the simplicity and smoothness of his delivery and mechanics.

But I don't care about Bailey's mechanics--he's a Reds prospect; he'll flame out. Get something for him while you can. Quit acting like he's the only fish in the sea and start collecting some guarantees along the way.

So, from now on should the Reds trade every decent pitching prospect they have because previous regime's couldn't draft and develop pitchers?

Highlifeman21
10-14-2006, 06:56 PM
OK. Why in the hell do you think he is the next Kerry Wood? Wood has awful mechanics while Bailey's is very fluid. You would love Bailey if he were a Cardinals or Astros prospect. I've seen you hype up Buchholz and Wainwright, and yet they don't have half the talent Homer Bailey has.

This is the same Homer Bailey who arguably only has two pitches, and has fallen deep in love with his fastball? I say he only has two pitches, b/c he obviously has his fastball, but he hasn't mastered his curve or his change, so between the two of them we'll count it as 1. He can't consistently throw anything but his fastball for strikes, which is a big problem. His command is an issue, and will prevent him from realizing success at AAA or for the Reds. He had a GREAT finish to his AA season, but honestly what type of competition did he face down for Chattanooga? The answer is not much.

Trade Homer Bailey for his perceived value, rather than the flameout he most likely will be for the Reds. Consider him the next chapter of the Howington and Gruler saga.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 07:02 PM
So, from now on should the Reds trade every decent pitching prospect they have because previous regime's couldn't draft and develop pitchers?

I'm saying it's a terrible idea to sit on our hands and wait for pitching to develop out of this system.

Pick up some real commodities with perceived commodities, and trade the real commodities for more real commodities.

dougdirt
10-14-2006, 07:06 PM
Jeeze, why are so many people down on Bailey. You guys do know he is 20 years old right? God forbid the guy hasnt mastered every pitch he throws at the age of 20, but I would like you to name me someone who has....I will call you a liar as soon as I read it. As for Howington and Gruler, neither of them EVER did what Homer Bailey did this year. Howington actually made it somewhere, all the way to AA. Gruler always gets brought up, the kid didnt even make a dent in single A and you want to compare him to Homer Bailey? Let me barrow this from Ozzie Guillen, Please.
Homer Bailey is easily one of the top 2 best pitching prospects in baseball. Him and Philip Hughes are 1/2 in nearly EVERYONES book. His curve made huge strides this year, and his change up is still a big work in progress. However last I checked the Reds had one heck of a changeup teacher in Mario Soto, and I am not too worried about him progressing that pitch. His curve like I said made progress this year, and I would imagine it continues to make progress as he continues to throw it more.

dougdirt
10-14-2006, 07:09 PM
I'm saying it's a terrible idea to sit on our hands and wait for pitching to develop out of this system.

Pick up some real commodities with perceived commodities, and trade the real commodities for more real commodities.

Why is it terrible to wait for pitching to develop? Its the cheapest way to do so, and ideally its the best way to do so. The guys you want to point at as being flops all have been or were drafted under Jim Bowden or prior, and did not have nearly what Homer Bailey has. With him as the top pitching prospect in the game, you arent going to trade him off as a small market team when you can ideally control him for so long on the cheap. Quit being so negative.

Highlifeman21
10-14-2006, 07:09 PM
Here's a trade offer, grade as you see fit.

Homer Bailey
David Weathers

for

Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano

Go ahead, fire away.

dougdirt
10-14-2006, 07:12 PM
There are a handful of guys in baseball worth Homer Bailey on the open market, and those guys arent being traded.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 07:15 PM
Why is it terrible to wait for pitching to develop? Its the cheapest way to do so, and ideally its the best way to do so. The guys you want to point at as being flops all have been or were drafted under Jim Bowden or prior, and did not have nearly what Homer Bailey has. With him as the top pitching prospect in the game, you arent going to trade him off as a small market team when you can ideally control him for so long on the cheap. Quit being so negative.

So you're fine turning Bailey over to Jerry Narron?

Highlifeman21
10-14-2006, 07:15 PM
Jeeze, why are so many people down on Bailey. You guys do know he is 20 years old right? God forbid the guy hasnt mastered every pitch he throws at the age of 20, but I would like you to name me someone who has....I will call you a liar as soon as I read it. As for Howington and Gruler, neither of them EVER did what Homer Bailey did this year. Howington actually made it somewhere, all the way to AA. Gruler always gets brought up, the kid didnt even make a dent in single A and you want to compare him to Homer Bailey? Let me barrow this from Ozzie Guillen, Please.
Homer Bailey is easily one of the top 2 best pitching prospects in baseball. Him and Philip Hughes are 1/2 in nearly EVERYONES book. His curve made huge strides this year, and his change up is still a big work in progress. However last I checked the Reds had one heck of a changeup teacher in Mario Soto, and I am not too worried about him progressing that pitch. His curve like I said made progress this year, and I would imagine it continues to make progress as he continues to throw it more.

Dwight Gooden, 1984. Now call me a liar. He was born 11/16/64, and pitched in the 1984 season, which would have ended when he was 20. His 1985 season wasn't too shabby either.


Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1984 19 NYM NL 17 9 31 31 7 3 0 0 218.0 161 72 63 7 73 276 2 3 879 2 7 2.60 3.56 137 1.073 MVP-15,CYA-2,RoY-1,AS
1985 20 NYM NL 24 4 35 35 16 8 0 0 276.7 198 51 47 13 69 268 2 6 1065 4 2 1.53 3.45 226 0.965 MVP-4,CYA-1,AS

OnBaseMachine
10-14-2006, 07:16 PM
Here's a trade offer, grade as you see fit.

Homer Bailey
David Weathers

for

Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano

Go ahead, fire away.

F.

Bailey throws a 95-98 mph fastball, and Baseball America recently said he has a plus 12-6 curveball, and they also stated his changeup could be excellant if he continues to work on it, and he will. You don't trade away pitchers like that, especially when your organization is pitching starved. Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto will soon form the best 1-2 punch in the NL Central.

dougdirt
10-14-2006, 07:20 PM
Dwight Gooden, 1984. Now call me a liar. He was born 11/16/64, and pitched in the 1984 season, which would have ended when he was 20. His 1985 seasons wasn't too shabby either.


Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1984 19 NYM NL 17 9 31 31 7 3 0 0 218.0 161 72 63 7 73 276 2 3 879 2 7 2.60 3.56 137 1.073 MVP-15,CYA-2,RoY-1,AS
1985 20 NYM NL 24 4 35 35 16 8 0 0 276.7 198 51 47 13 69 268 2 6 1065 4 2 1.53 3.45 226 0.965 MVP-4,CYA-1,AS


So Doc Gooden never got better as a pitcher from that point on? It actually loooks like he was a much better pitcher at the age of 21 than at age 20. Oh, and if you want to name another, feel free.

dougdirt
10-14-2006, 07:21 PM
So you're fine turning Bailey over to Jerry Narron?

Doesnt make me feel comfortable really, but I imagine that Wayne steps in with a pitch count for Bailey and once he reaches it, or gets close to it, he will exit the game. I dont see Bailey getting the Harang or Arroyo treatment and throwing 220+ innings.

reds44
10-14-2006, 07:24 PM
Here's a trade offer, grade as you see fit.

Homer Bailey
David Weathers

for

Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano

Go ahead, fire away.

I'll give it a Z-.

mth123
10-14-2006, 08:34 PM
So its ok to trade key guys for middle relievers now? I need to edit a bunch of my posts.

I like Heilman and all but the Mets didn't think he was good enough to start when Jose Lima, Oliver Perez and Dave Williams were getting starts this year.

By the way, Weathers is a free agent and can't be traded.

mound_patrol
10-14-2006, 09:09 PM
I am definitly on board for keeping Bailey and letting the KID develop. He has so much talent and potential it'd be rediculous to trade him away because of Reds past history.

And to say that done is overvalued is going overboard. Yeah he had a bad season, but you can't replace Dunns production with 10 million.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 09:16 PM
He has so much talent and potential it'd be rediculous to trade him away because of Reds past history.



He has a lot of potential. But come on, do you honestly want Bailey being broken in by this band of losers? Narron and this awful losing atmosphere.

This team needs a minor league talent infusion, but it needs a MLB talent infusion more. Trading Bailey will bring the biggest MLB talent infusion of any current Reds' commodity.

mound_patrol
10-14-2006, 09:24 PM
I'd rather take my chances on Bailey becoming a number 1 or 2 for us then to go out and trade for a guy that would be a number 3 starter at best.

While I'd love to be able to say I think this team would be able to contend next year, I don't see it happening with all the holes we have to address and and limited funds we have. With that being said we need to keep building for the future and Bailey is the centerpiece of the future. Heilman, while he is good, is not going to put us over the top. I guess I just have a little more faith in Bailey continueing to get better.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 09:27 PM
I'd rather take my chances on Bailey becoming a number 1 or 2 for us then to go out and trade for a guy that would be a number 3 starter at best.

While I'd love to be able to say I think this team would be able to contend next year, I don't see it happening with all the holes we have to address and and limited funds we have. With that being said we need to keep building for the future and Bailey is the centerpiece of the future. Heilman, while he is good, is not going to put us over the top. I guess I just have a little more faith in Bailey continueing to get better.

I wouldn't trade Bailey straightup for Heilman.

redsfanfalcon
10-14-2006, 09:27 PM
No. Encarnacion will be a better player than Reyes, and Heilman projects more as a number three starter while Bailey will be an ace. No way would I pull the trigger on this deal.

Reyes is a catalyst for the Mets, and is a star already. I'm not sure on this one, but I believe he is about the same age as EE. He has speed, has a little pop in his bat, and hits for average. I would love for EE to be a better player than Reyes, but I just don't see it happening. EE will be good, but he's not going to steal 50+ bases, score over 100 runs, and have steady defense like Reyes. (all three of those elements combined) We just have to be patient on Bailey...he's 20 friggin years old! I admit, I wanted to see him up some this year too, just to give the Reds a shot in the arm, but it didn't happen.

mound_patrol
10-14-2006, 09:33 PM
I wouldn't trade Bailey straightup for Heilman.

I knew you didn't mean straight up. I was thinking about your proposed trade for reyes and heilman. I feel we are giving up too much of the future for that deal. And I am not totally against trading Bailey, but just like with Dunn, I wouldn't be looking to deal him. I'd take offers and wait to be blown away.

mth123
10-14-2006, 10:06 PM
Back to the original thought. Heilman would be a good guy to try and get cheaply. The Mets don't seem to value him as much as they should. They have jerked him around a lot over the years and didn't move him to the rotation this year when they really needed him. They had Bradford and Julio to set-up Wagner, and Heilman could have been moved to the rotation. Instead they chose to trade Julio for an aging and sure to be injured El Duque.

Not sure what it would take, but it wouldn't take a key piece IMO.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 10:23 PM
Not sure what it would take, but it wouldn't take a key piece IMO.

I don't know. I could see him costing the Reds a key piece. He strikes me as an arm *just* out of the Reds' price range.

He can't be picked up by a Travis Chick or a Zach Ward. He's going to take a piece the Reds can actually use.

mth123
10-14-2006, 10:31 PM
I don't know. I could see him costing the Reds a key piece. He strikes me as an arm *just* out of the Reds' price range.

He can't be picked up by a Travis Chick or a Zach Ward. He's going to take a piece the Reds can actually use.

I hate predicting trades so I shouldn't post this. But Lohse and Majewski?

Gives them a starter for their shortage (and cheap by their standards) and a guy to replace Heilman in the pen. I think Maj needs to get out of cincy after failing on the heels of being brought in as a minor savior. The Reds can't afford to go to arbitration with Lohse. Useful pieces for NY but basically nothing as far as the Reds are concerned.

Falls City Beer
10-14-2006, 10:38 PM
Useful pieces for NY but basically nothing as far as the Reds are concerned.

I'm not sure I understand. The Reds need starters and relievers more than the Mets.

I'm not sure the Mets are a great trading match anyway. They have similar deficiencies to the Reds.

mth123
10-14-2006, 10:52 PM
I'm not sure I understand. The Reds need starters and relievers more than the Mets.

I'm not sure the Mets are a great trading match anyway. They have similar deficiencies to the Reds.

You're probably right. Here is my thinking:

I think Maj had the deer in the headlights look when he did pitch in Cincy and Lohse will be too expensive. From the Reds standpoint they gain Heilman who is an upgrade to Maj. and only kick in a guy they probably can't afford to keep anyway.

The Mets, on the other hand, do need starters. Pedro is out next year. Trachsel is a Free Agent. El Duque can't be counted on. They have an aging Glavine and John Maine. Not sure about Perez or Williams. Pelfrey and Humber are on the way but they probably want to have a vet alternative or two. Lohse replaces Trachsel. I'm sure they'll go shopping for an ace or two but they need multiple starters. From the Mets standpoint, they move a guy who they don't seem to like as much as we do, replace him with a guy who was OK for a year and a half and add a starter for the back of the rotation who is cheaper than the guy they have leaving. Seems like a good deal for both teams.

Of course if I'm wrong about how much Heilman is valued in NY, then none of this could possibly happen.

Superdude
10-14-2006, 11:15 PM
How about this blockbuster...

Adam Dunn
Tyler Pelland

for

Aaron Heilman
Lastings Milledge

It's obvious the Mets aren't building for the future, so maybe they're not yet ready to hand a job to Milledge. We may have to toss in another prospect to snag Milledge, but adding a solid starter and replacing Dunn with a young outfielder with tons of upside would be sweet. World Series '08?

mth123
10-14-2006, 11:18 PM
How about this blockbuster...

Adam Dunn
Tyler Pelland

for

Aaron Heilman
Lastings Milledge

It's obvious the Mets aren't building for the future, so maybe they're not yet ready to hand a job to Milledge. We may have to toss in another prospect to snag Milledge, but adding a solid starter and replacing Dunn with a young outfielder with tons of upside would be sweet. World Series '08?

The Mets should be throwing in the prospect. Adding Pelfrey might get me to think about it before saying no.

flyer85
10-14-2006, 11:26 PM
There is nothing special about Heilman. A good pitcher but nothing special.

flyer85
10-14-2006, 11:27 PM
So Doc Gooden never got better as a pitcher from that point on? It actually loooks like he was a much better pitcher at the age of 21 than at age 20. Oh, and if you want to name another, feel free.
Gooden was ruined by pitching an ungodly number of innings at too early an age.

Superdude
10-14-2006, 11:32 PM
There is nothing special about Heilman. A good pitcher but nothing special.

What is it with Heilman's underratedness? The guy has had really good stats out of the bullpen the last two years, is only 27, and has electric stuff. He may not win a Cy Young, but I could definitely see him as a nice #2-3 starter for a while.

flyer85
10-14-2006, 11:36 PM
What is it with Heilman's underratedness? because his 2006 season as a middle reliever was solid, but that's it. There are a lot of solid middle relief types, of course the Reds don't have any of them.

Would I like to see him in a Red uniform? Sure but it's mainly because the organization is severely lacking major league quality arms.

Superdude
10-14-2006, 11:55 PM
The Mets should be throwing in the prospect. Adding Pelfrey might get me to think about it before saying no.

Adam Dunn
Tyler Pelland

for

Pelfrey
Heilman
Milledge

No matter how much they underrate Heilman, asking them to give up their version of Homer Bailey, their #1 hitting prospect, and Heilman seems pretty unlikely.

flyer85
10-14-2006, 11:57 PM
Now is just the wrong time to trade Dunn if you want real value in return.

Krusty
10-15-2006, 12:12 AM
I like Heilman but I doubt the Mets will deal him when they are solid in the pen and weak in the starting rotation. Why would they want to weaken the bullpen when they can acquire what they need via free agency?

Redmachine2003
10-15-2006, 09:39 AM
I like Heilman but I doubt the Mets will deal him when they are solid in the pen and weak in the starting rotation. Why would they want to weaken the bullpen when they can acquire what they need via free agency? We can throw in Milton and pay his salary too:evil: :evil:

SultanOfSwing
10-16-2006, 11:47 AM
Adam Dunn
Tyler Pelland

for

Pelfrey
Heilman
Milledge

No matter how much they underrate Heilman, asking them to give up their version of Homer Bailey, their #1 hitting prospect, and Heilman seems pretty unlikely.
Milledge's value has plummeted dramatically. He is no longer considered attractive as a key piece in a big deal. From a value standpoint, that deal is pretty fair, as Pelfrey is the key ingredient. However, the Mets realize Milledge's value is rock bottom and probably wouldn't trade him. But they might if the Reds demanded him in a deal for Dunn.

dfs
10-16-2006, 12:28 PM
Gooden was ruined by pitching an ungodly number of innings at too early an age.

All careers should be so ruined. Seriously if your going to complain that a hall of fame career isn't good enough to fill out a prospects potential....well, that seems a bit much. Of course, given his recent history Gooden may not actually make it into the hall, most of his comparables don't, but the notion that the mets where somehow foolish for cashing in on Gooden seems circumspect.

My understanding was that Gooden was felled by lifestyle issues more so than arm injuries, but corrections are welcome.

NJReds
10-16-2006, 12:30 PM
Here's a trade offer, grade as you see fit.

Homer Bailey
David Weathers

for

Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano

Go ahead, fire away.


The Mets would pay plane fare for all involved. It would make up for the Zambrano-Kasmir deal. Heilman is a good middle reliever with a possible future as a closer.

However, he thinks he's a starter.

But while he'd decent the first time through the lineup, but the second/third time around it's batting practice. Why do you think the Mets threw retreads like Williams and Maine instead of giving Heilman a shot? They don't like him as a starter. Two years ago they were close to cutting the guy. Bailey has to bring a back more than Heilman.

flyer85
10-16-2006, 12:36 PM
All careers should be so ruined. Seriously if your going to complain that a hall of fame career isn't good enough to fill out a prospects potential....well, that seems a bit much. Of course, given his recent history Gooden may not actually make it into the hall, most of his comparables don't, but the notion that the mets where somehow foolish for cashing in on Gooden seems circumspect.

My understanding was that Gooden was felled by lifestyle issues more so than arm injuries, but corrections are welcome.then why do teams do so much to protect their 20-21 year old arms from throwing an excessive amount of innings? (like less than 200). Detroit treated Verlander with kid gloves as the season wore on.

The Mets allowed Gooden to throw 218IP at 19, 276IP at 20 and and 250IP at age 21 and he was never the same again. After the age of 21 it was all downhill and Gooden was never anything special, he was very average. At age 21 he certainly had periods where he was sober and he never displayed anywhere near the ability that he did as a 20 year old.

dfs
10-16-2006, 02:10 PM
The Mets allowed Gooden to throw 218IP at 19, 276IP at 20 and and 250IP at age 21 and he was never the same again. After the age of 21 it was all downhill and Gooden was never anything special, he was very average. At age 21 he certainly had periods where he was sober and he never displayed anywhere near the ability that he did as a 20 year old.

Gooden was ruined by cocaine.

Are you seriously suggesting Doc Gooden would have contributed MORE to the mets if they had kept him in AA till he was 23? Because that seems to be the direction you're moving in and is it seems to me to be pretty unteniable.

Pitchers get hurt. Old pitchers get hurt. Young pitchers get hurt. Pitchers who pitch too much get hurt and you know what? Sometimes pitchers who have not pitched very much at all get hurt. Even the guys at BP have backed off the notion that pitch count alone causes injury (and as a reds fan...given the treatment of Harang and Arroyo, I hope they are right!)

Given a choice between what they got out of Gooden and the chance that maybe he would have had four straight eras of 120+ between the age of 24 and 28, I'm pretty sure the mets would say they did the right thing. Same thing with Fernando and with Feller.