Would You Do This Three-Way?

[Krusty]

It involves the Reds, Dodgers and Marlins:

Reds deal Adam Dunn to the Marlins for LHP Dontrelle Willis.

Marlins then move Dunn to the Dodgers for OF Andre Either and LHP Scott Elbert.

Elbert stats:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=455092

Opinions?

[EddieMilner]

Being the Reds, yes. I would definitely take one of the best young pitchers in baseball for one of the best young hitters. Pitching is worth much more than hitting right now. I don't think the Marlins would take this trade.

[redsmetz]

Oh, good, this is about baseball. I was afraid this was about food or perhaps something untoward!

[SultanOfSwing]

I suppose, but I'm not crazy about Willis--his 2006 worries me, scouts have always been worried about his mechanics, he will get crazy money very soon, and he pitches in a bigger ballpark.

Why not for Either, Elbert, and another prospect? Cut out the middle man.

I too don't see why the Marlins would do this trade. I think you are looking at it from the perspective of what player you want, rather than what teams want Dunn and what do they have that you want.

[mound_patrol]

Doesn't a Three-way usually go something like this: Dunn to Redsox, Manny to Angels, Santana to Reds. Not just trading Dunn and them turning around and trading him? Not saying the proposed idea is wrong, just thught 3-ways worked differently

[Red Leader]

I wonder about the Angels. Really. Dunn seems like a great fit for them. They keep saying they'll give up Ervin Santana for the right bat. The reason they can give up Santana is because they have pitching in the minors and Bartolo Colon on the way back.

I wonder if they'd give us Scott Shields and Nick Adenhart for Adam Dunn. I think Adenhart is more on a timeline for when we will be truly competitive. He'd be nice to pair up with Homer Bailey. Ervin Santana is closer to arbitration and would likely be out of here shortly after he hit arbitration. That's why I'd take Adenhart over Santana, although I can't say that I would turn down the Angels if they did offer Santana and wouldn't budge on it.

[mound_patrol]

Redleader, how does Adenhart project? I know nothing about him. I think Reds nation would probably have a tough time accepting that trade if he's further away from the bigs than what Santana is.

[blumj]

I wonder about the Angels. Really. Dunn seems like a great fit for them.
Except, I don't think they're likely to think so. The Angels really value speed, defense, and batting average.

[SultanOfSwing]

Redleader, how does Adenhart project? I know nothing about him. I think Reds nation would probably have a tough time accepting that trade if he's further away from the bigs than what Santana is.
From BA:



Neither Adenhart's talent nor his signing bonus ($710,000) was typical of a 14th-rounder. The Williamsport (Md.) High righthander entered 2004 ranked as the nation's top high school prospect, and he battled LaGrange (Texas) High righty Homer Bailey for that distinction during the spring. While Bailey went on to get drafted seventh overall by the Reds and win BA's High School Player of the Year award, Adenhart didn't have a happy ending.

Adenhart opened his senior season with a seven-inning perfect game and 15 strikeouts, but his performance started to slip by May. He left a May 11 start after one inning because of elbow discomfort, and learned shortly thereafter that he would require Tommy John surgery. He went from a possible top-10 pick to falling out of the top 10 rounds.

Most teams figured Adenhart would follow through on his baseball scholarship from North Carolina after having his elbow reconstructed. But Angels area scout Dan Radcliff had an inkling Adenhart still might sign, and he successfully lobbied Bane to take him.

"You have to give Dan a lot of credit," Bane said. "He was in constant touch with Nick. He buried me with constant requests to come see the guy when he was healthy. When he got hurt, I thought I was going to have to visit Radcliff in the hospital rather than Adenhart because he was so disappointed."

Before he got hurt, Adenhart had a low-90s fastball that topped out at 95 mph, as well as a curveball that ranked among the best in the high school ranks. His changeup, which has late tumbling action, also showed promise. Command and a projectable 6-foot-3, 185-pound build were two more pluses in his favor.

Dr. James Andrews operated on Adenhart's elbow on June 17, and Adenhart passed a physical conducted by Angels team orthopedist Dr. Lewis Yocum prior to signing. The track record with Tommy John surgery is very promising, and he also has youth on his side. Adenhart should be able to return to the mound before he turns 19 in August 2005.


From The Baseball Analysts:



23. Nick Adenhart, sp: Angels (A+)

In a lot of ways, Adenhart is similar to Phil Hughes, a good blend of stuff and serious polish. Adenhart, for three months, has pitched far older than his age and level indicates. While he hasn't posted the double-digit-type K/9 numbers that many pitching prospects ranked higher and lower than him have, Adenhart offers poise that very few in the minors have ... for his age, only Hughes is close. The minor leagues continue to offer success story after success story for the Angels, who have quite the stable of young pitchers in Jered Weaver, Jose Arredondo and Adenhart to go with their accomplished pitching veterans.


And:



Nick Adenhart: A Rising Star (Once Again)
By Rich Lederer

I watched Bryan Smith's 23rd-ranked prospect make his California League debut two weeks ago yesterday and had a chance to interview him after the game.

Nicholas J. Adenhart (A-den-hart) is a 6-foot-3, 185-pound right-hander out of Williamsport, Maryland. He is a very accomplished pitcher for someone who has yet to celebrate his 20th birthday. Adenhart was Baseball America's Youth Player of the Year in 2003 and its top-ranked high school prospect prior to his senior season in 2004. He tossed a perfect game in his first outing that spring, striking out 15 of the 21 batters faced.

A cinch first-round draft pick heading into his senior year, Adenhart blew out his elbow in May and had Tommy John surgery one week after the Los Angeles Angels selected him in the 14th round (413rd overall). Area scout Dan Radcliff and director of scouting Eddie Bane convinced Adenhart to forego a scholarship offer from the University of North Carolina and signed him to a $710,000 bonus on July 26, 2004.

Adenhart spent the next year rehabbing his elbow in Tempe, Arizona before making his professional debut on June 25, 2005. He pitched 50 innings in the Arizona and Pioneer Rookie Leagues that summer, fashioning a 3-3 record with a 3.24 ERA. Not surprisingly, his command was a bit off, walking 24 batters or 4.32 per 9 IP. However, he offset his wildness with 59 strikeouts, good for 10.62 K/9.

At the age of 19, Adenhart earned a non-roster invitation to the Angels' big league camp this spring. He threw three innings without allowing a run. Nick faced the Chicago White Sox, the defending World Series champions, in one outing. "I threw strikes and got a couple of punchouts," he told me matter of factly in the locker room in the aftermath of winning his Cal League debut for the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.

Adenhart was assigned to the Cedar Rapids Kernels (Low-A) out of spring training. He dominated Midwest League hitters, leading the circuit in wins (10) and placing third in ERA (1.95) and strikeouts (99 in 106 IP). His performance earned him a starting assignment in the All-Star Game on June 20 and a promotion to the organization's High-A affiliate nine days later.

Sporting a Fu Manchu-style mustache, the dark-haired prized prospect got the start on July 2 and pitched six innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out four in front of Bane and several scouts. Thanks to Ben Johnson's 3-for-3 night (including a pair of home runs and two walks), Adenhart earned his first victory for the Quakes and his 11th of the season in a performance that was less than overwhelming but hinted at his star potential. Six of the eight hits were to the opposite field and the only extra-base hit was a slicing double to left in the fifth that failed to produce a run.

"My pitch selection was good, but I left a couple of the pitches over the plate with two strikes," was Nick's response when I asked him about his outing. "I wasn't at my best in terms of command."

Trying to establish his fastball the first time through the lineup, Adenhart ran into trouble in the second, allowing four hits (including three in a row to open the inning) and a trio of runs. "My touch and feel was off, and I was trying to do too much."

Adenhart "calmed down" and gave up just three hits and one run over his final four frames. "I located my fastball better down and in the zone."

The second-year pro throws a two-seam and a four-seam fastball. "I throw my two-seamer about 80-90% of the time. There is no difference in velocity between the two fastballs. I use my four-seamer when trying to elevate on 0-2 and 1-2 counts or into left-handed batters and away from right-handed batters."

Adenhart's fastball was clocked in the high-80s-to-low-90s, topping out at 94 on a few occasions. He is an extreme groundball pitcher and has only given up two home runs in 170 innings in his professional career. "Both home runs were on changeups that I left up."

"I get good sink on my two-seamer," while attributing his favorable groundball-to-flyball ratio to the pronation in his delivery. Nick recorded 11 of his 14 non-strikeouts on the ground the evening I saw him pitch.

Adenhart, who was invited to but did not pitch in the Futures Game, also throws an 11-to-5 curveball in the mid-70s and a circle change in the low-80s. "My changeup tends to be a strikeout pitch. I get lots of swings and misses, especially down-and-away to left-handed batters."

I asked Nick how his elbow felt two years after undergoing surgery performed by Dr. James Andrews. "My elbow is great. It feels different than before I had the surgery. But there is no pain or discomfort."

Adenhart made his next start five days later but was limited to just two innings (2-1-0-0-0-3 with three groundouts) a couple of days prior to the Futures Game. His next outing was last Wednesday, an impressive six-inning, four-hit, one-run victory with six strikeouts. He has pitched 120 innings thus far, going 12-2 with a 2.10 ERA. (Complete stats from MiLB.com.)

Although Adenhart won't turn 20 until August 24, I wouldn't be surprised if he made it to the big leagues at some point during the 2008 season. Once he arrives, the kid with the three "plus" pitches is apt to become part of a starting rotation that could include Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and fellow 2004 draftee Jered Weaver. The future of the Halos looks bright indeed.

[Red Leader]

Adenhart has three plus pitches: fastball (throws a 2 and 4 seamer); curve; changeup. His fastball typically goes 88-92, but reaches 94 on occasion. He is an extreme groundball pitcher. He's only given up 2 HR's in his 2 MiLB seasons, both on changeups that he says he made mistakes on and left up in the zone. He has already undergone TJ surgery, a week after he was drafted by the Angels. He is 20 yrs old. He should be in a big league rotation for good (barring injury) coming out of Spring Training, 2008 (a year behind Homer at most).

Adenhart started this past year in Low A and was promoted to High A after the All-Star break.

He went 10-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 84 H and 99/26 K/BB in 106 innings for low Single-A Cedar Rapids.

He went 5-2 with a 3.80 ERA, 51 H and 46/16 K/BB in 52.1 innings for high Single-A Rancho Cucamonga.

[mound_patrol]

If we were going to make a decision like trading dunn for a young guy who will be ready for 08, then this organization needs to make a committment for 2008 and not spend foolishly to TRY to contend in 2007

[redsfan4445]

how about Dunn, Travis Wood, Belise and Claussen to Pirates for Jason Bay and Zach Duke, then Pirates can trade Dunn to Dodgers for OF Andre Either and LHP Scott Elbert????

[Red Leader]

If we were going to make a decision like trading dunn for a young guy who will be ready for 08, then this organization needs to make a committment for 2008 and not spend foolishly to TRY to contend in 2007

Completely agree. And, at this point, I think that's the direction we need to be headed toward. I don't think you're going to get as much value in return if you are attempting to trade Dunn for a pitcher that has major league experience. You're not going to get someone's ace in return for Dunn. You could get pitchers with #1 / #2 type ceiling that don't have major league experience, though.

[redsfan4445]

If we were going to make a decision like trading dunn for a young guy who will be ready for 08, then this organization needs to make a committment for 2008 and not spend foolishly to TRY to contend in 2007


sorry im tired of waiting for a certain year to contend, it never happens.. 6 years of a losing record, i want the Reds comitted to Winning EVERY year.. I feel BOB thinks the same way.. everytime i see the Cardinals win a playoff game it turns my stomach how it was there for the taking and the team didnt wnat it bad enough.. time to get rid of players that dont care and bring in winners and players that hustle and play hard.. dunn slacked and it showed!

[Red Leader]

how about Dunn, Travis Wood, Belise and Claussen to Pirates for Jason Bay and Zach Duke, then Pirates can trade Dunn to Dodgers for OF Andre Either and LHP Scott Elbert????

Take out Travis Wood, and I'd do it.

Wood is one of the pitchers I want to see developed in this system and brought up to pitch for the big league team when he's ready.

Bailey, Cueto, and Wood are the three starting pitchers I want to stay in the organization.


Also, I'm hoping that Claussen really works hard this offseason and comes to spring training in the best shape of his life. Not sure if that's going to happen, but he could still be a very good pitcher if it does.

[mound_patrol]

sorry im tired of waiting for a certain year to contend, it never happens.. 6 years of a losing record, i want the Reds comitted to Winning EVERY year.. I feel BOB thinks the same way.. everytime i see the Cardinals win a playoff game it turns my stomach how it was there for the taking and the team didnt wnat it bad enough.. time to get rid of players that dont care and bring in winners and players that hustle and play hard.. dunn slacked and it showed!

I'd like to be in contention every year as well, but I think there are just too many holes to fill to really be considered a contender for next year. The NL won't be as bad next year as they were this year. So instead of throwing cash around and wasting it on old vets I say lets do this right and make a move to contend in 2008 and be able to contend for many years after.

If you want to improve the team without handicapping the future, I think that can be done by improving the bullpen.

[Highlifeman21]

Or we could just keep Dunn....

[camisadelgolf]

I was hoping this was an Angelina Jolie and Shania Twain thread. ;)

[ol'Sparky]

:d

[TC81190]

Or we could just keep Dunn....

Or we could get better players than Dunn.

[Krusty]

I wonder about the Angels. Really. Dunn seems like a great fit for them. They keep saying they'll give up Ervin Santana for the right bat. The reason they can give up Santana is because they have pitching in the minors and Bartolo Colon on the way back.

I wonder if they'd give us Scott Shields and Nick Adenhart for Adam Dunn. I think Adenhart is more on a timeline for when we will be truly competitive. He'd be nice to pair up with Homer Bailey. Ervin Santana is closer to arbitration and would likely be out of here shortly after he hit arbitration. That's why I'd take Adenhart over Santana, although I can't say that I would turn down the Angels if they did offer Santana and wouldn't budge on it.

The Angels are supposedly looking for help at 3rd, lst and centerfielder. They are supposedly looking for another righthanded hitter. I could see a deal for A-Rod should the Yankees decide to trade him to the Angels. A lefthanded hitter wasn't high on their list.

[Highlifeman21]

Or we could get better players than Dunn.


If they can pitch, I'm all for it.

If they can't pitch, there's only a handful of players in the game better than Adam, and we won't get those guys.

That being said, or we could keep Adam Dunn....

[Krusty]

Or, if Baltimore's Miguel Tejada makes another stink about getting traded then the Orioles might go for something like this:


Reds trade Dunn.......receive Ervin Santana in return.
Orioles trade Tejada.....receive Dunn and shortstop Erick Aybar.
Angels trade rhp Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar.....receive shortstop Miguel Tejada

[Patrick Bateman]

Or, if Baltimore's Miguel Tejada makes another stink about getting traded then the Orioles might go for something like this:


Reds trade Dunn.......receive Ervin Santana in return.
Orioles trade Tejada.....receive Dunn and shortstop Erick Aybar.
Angels trade rhp Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar.....receive shortstop Miguel Tejada

The Orioles need to give something else good to the Reds for that deal to work.

[Krusty]

The Orioles need to give something else good to the Reds for that deal to work.

Maybe the Orioles can add reliever RHP Eddy Rodriguez to the deal.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=430626

[dunner13]

How about dunn to the orioles for tejada and bedard or cabrea, or even hayden penn. Considering the steroid rumors around tejada and his big contract I dont think his value is real high. We could fill the hole at short, not lose much offense and get a pitcher as well. I really doubt baltimore would trade bedard but maybe cabera or penn.

[SultanOfSwing]

How about dunn to the orioles for tejada and bedard or cabrea, or even hayden penn. Considering the steroid rumors around tejada and his big contract I dont think his value is real high. We could fill the hole at short, not lose much offense and get a pitcher as well. I really doubt baltimore would trade bedard but maybe cabera or penn.
Would you trade Dunn and Harang for Mark Teixeira? That is similar to what Baltimore would be doing. The need pitching as well. That is what they will shop Tejada for.