My Reds Top 40 Prospect list

[dougdirt]

Long offseason, but here is the list i came up with. Anyone have their own lists? Lets have some discussion about just Reds prospects as well.

1. Homer Bailey - RHP, 20, Chattanooga

2. Jay Bruce - OF, 19, Dayton

3. Joey Votto - 1B, 23, Chattanooga

4. Travis Wood - LHP, 19, Dayton

5. Johnny Cueto - RHP, 20, Sarasota

6. Drew Stubbs - OF, 22, Billings

7. Chris Valaika - SS/2B, 21, Billings

8. Milton Loo - SS/3B, 20, GCL

9. Javon Moran - OF, 24, Chattanooga

10. Sam Lecure - RHP, 22, Sarasota

11. Paul Janish - SS, 24, Chattanooga

12. Justin Turner - 21, 2B, Billings

13. Josh Ravin - RHP, 18, Billings

14. Sean Watson - 21, RHP, Dayton

15. Tyler Pelland - 23, LHP, Chattanooga

16. Drew Anderson - 23, 2B, Chattanooga

17. Carlos Fisher - 23, RHP, Dayton

18. Jordan Smith - 20, RHP, Billings

19. Daryl Thompson - 20, RHP, GCL

20. Craig Tatum - 23, C, Dayton

21. Chris Dickerson - 24, OF, Chattanooga

22. Jon Coutlangus, 25, LHP, Louisville

23. Cody Strait - 23, OF, Sarasota

24. David Shafer - 24, RHP, Chattanooga

25. Calvin Medlock - 23, RHP, Chattanooga

26. Miguel Perez - 23, C, Chattanooga

27. William Bergolla - 23, 2B, Louisville

28. Jerry Gil - 24, IF/OF, AA (just acquired)

29. Brandon Rice - 18, RHP, GCL

30. Phil Dumatrait - 25, LHP, Louisville

31. Rafael Gonzalez - 20, RHP, Dayton

32. Carlos Guevara - 24, RHP, Chattanooga

33. Daniel Dorn - 22, OF, Billings

34. Adam Rosales - 23, SS, Dayton

35. Logan Parker - 22, 1B, Billings

36.. Juan Francisco - 19, 3B, GCL/Billings

37. BJ Szymanski - 24, OF, Dayton

38. Tonys Gutierrez, - 23, 1B, Sarasota

39. Philippe Valiquette -19, LHP, Dayton

40. Camilo Vazquez, - 23, LHP, Chattanooga

[BoilerBC11]

Thanks for the list, I pretend to know a lot about the reds minor leagues, but once we get outa the top 15, im clueless...

With that being said, Im still not sold on Javon Moran, I see him as a 4th OF at best. I also dont ever see Paul Janish becoming an everyday SS. I just dont think these guys will every develop the O it takes to be a big-leaguer. However, with defensive minded WK running the show, who knows.

This then leads me to another question. What did you base your rankings off of? Best potential? closest to potential? or most likely to someday contribute to the reds?

And also, while were on the subject. What do you think of Josh Ravin? I dont know why but i think this kid will be a stud pitcher for us down the road...

[mth123]

Thanks for the list. When it comes to Reds prospects, much of my opinion is based on your well informed comments. That leads me to a few questions about some of your rankings:

What jumps out most is that the group of relievers that many on here have been calling for are all ranked fairly low (Coutlangus 22, Shafer 24, Medlock 25, Guevera 32 and Salmon isn't even on the list). Yet some guys that appear to be no more than roster fodder at the MLB level are ranked above them (Moran 9, Janisch 11, Tatum 20, Dickerson 21). What is the reason for this ranking?

Does it mean the pitchers won't be any help?
Does it mean Moran and Janisch may actually be useful?
Is it just based on middle relievers being less valued than starters or position players?
Is it age based?

I'm just wondering because it seems like the middle relievers on the list have the most chance to make significant contributions to the Reds than anyone out of the top 5 or 10. Its hard to argue with the top 5 and I can see Stubbs, Valaika, Loo and Lecure ahead of these guys, but after that, these relievers seem like the best bet.

Comments?

[lollipopcurve]

Nice list, dd.

A couple more names to throw out there...

Norris Hopper -- I know, "too old" -- but he's likely going to be on the roster, and he's going to be a rookie -- I like Hopper as an extra outfielder/pinch hitter/pinch runner

Wirfin Obispo -- supposedly has a very live arm and his stats from the DSL seem to corroborate that -- I think he'll be in Dayton in 07

[Benihana]

Nice list, Doug.

The top 15 is the prospect list, anything after is the suspect list, with some too early to tell. The top three should all be on the Reds 25-man roster no later than Opening Day 2008, with Bailey and Votto most likely arriving sooner.

I would grade them out like this:

Bailey A+
Bruce A
Votto A-
Wood B
Cueto B
Stubbs C+
Valaika C+

Everyone else- either too early to tell, or nothing worth following regularly yet.

[Danny Serafini]

That sure is one top heavy list. Gets a tad depressing as it goes, but I'd rather have a few As and the rest Cs than all Bs.

[Kc61]

Is Brendan Harris disqualified because he came up to the big club?

[dougdirt]

With that being said, Im still not sold on Javon Moran, I see him as a 4th OF at best. I also dont ever see Paul Janish becoming an everyday SS. I just dont think these guys will every develop the O it takes to be a big-leaguer. However, with defensive minded WK running the show, who knows.

This then leads me to another question. What did you base your rankings off of? Best potential? closest to potential? or most likely to someday contribute to the reds?

And also, while were on the subject. What do you think of Josh Ravin? I dont know why but i think this kid will be a stud pitcher for us down the road...
I like Moran as someone who will likely be a 4th outfielder, but could start some places. He has the speed to cover the ground in the outfield, and he can hit for a good average. He doesnt walk much, which isnt good when he slumps, but in my mind, I cant ignore a guy who has hit .330 since he became a Reds farmhand. As for Janish, I think he could become a starting SS. He has a very good glove and can cover some ground at SS. He also showed signs that he can actually hit decent enough to maybe get by in the majors. His plate discipline is actually very good. In his minor league career he has walked 120 times and struck out just 137 times, while having an on base percentage 96 points higher than his batting average, which is quite good. With the Reds and Krivsky so high on defense, I think his chances are even better.

As for the basing of my rankings, it was a mix of potential, current ability, likelihood to reach potential and what you have done.

As for Ravin, he is someone I really like. He has 3 pitches that he commands very well and is throwing in the low 90's right now. He has good size for a pitcher and should pack on some more weight as he grows some more. I cant say that I have seen him pitch outside of his draft video, but I like his potential along with his stuff and projectability.



What jumps out most is that the group of relievers that many on here have been calling for are all ranked fairly low (Coutlangus 22, Shafer 24, Medlock 25, Guevera 32 and Salmon isn't even on the list). Yet some guys that appear to be no more than roster fodder at the MLB level are ranked above them (Moran 9, Janisch 11, Tatum 20, Dickerson 21). What is the reason for this ranking?

Does it mean the pitchers won't be any help?
Does it mean Moran and Janisch may actually be useful?
Is it just based on middle relievers being less valued than starters or position players?
Is it age based?

I'm just wondering because it seems like the middle relievers on the list have the most chance to make significant contributions to the Reds than anyone out of the top 5 or 10. Its hard to argue with the top 5 and I can see Stubbs, Valaika, Loo and Lecure ahead of these guys, but after that, these relievers seem like the best bet.

Comments?
With the relievers, this is my personal opinion and more often than not, people disagree with me on it, but relievers, who are not top flight Bobby Jenks or Francisco Rodriguez type relievers wont get much attention. I dont see any of those relievers being closers, or at least dominant closers, and I dont think middle relievers impact a game enough to the point where they should be very high on any prospect ranking. Can they be good middle relievers? I think they can be for sure. Just not the closer type material that I think it would take for them to be in the top 15 for the Reds. As for Janish and Moran, I covered that earlier in reply to someone else, but I think both can be useful, yes. Age also comes into play with where some guys ranked. I just think that if some of the position players listed were to reach their potential they would be more valuable than a middle relief guy almost regardless. Just my opinion, Im not always right, but I guess I dont have a high prospect ranking for middle relief.


Nice list, dd.

A couple more names to throw out there...

Norris Hopper -- I know, "too old" -- but he's likely going to be on the roster, and he's going to be a rookie -- I like Hopper as an extra outfielder/pinch hitter/pinch runner

Wirfin Obispo -- supposedly has a very live arm and his stats from the DSL seem to corroborate that -- I think he'll be in Dayton in 07

Hopper falls into the too old, no power at all mold. He has 4 HR in over 4000 minor league at bats. As for Obispo, I had a few guys who I exchanged ideas with on my list and Onbasemachine was one who was curious as to leaving him off. Basically it came down to this with me for leaving him off....I have absolutely no idea what he throws other than a good fastball. He dominated the DSL, but going over rosters, opposing players were anywhere from 16-23 years old. I have no idea of the competition level down there, and when all of that comes together, I had no true way of getting any type of feel for where to rank him, so I just left him off. I am sure he is a top 40 prospect, but I have no clue on where to rank him at all, so I just left him off completely and left it to prospects in the US.


Is Brendan Harris disqualified because he came up to the big club?
Harris had 110 at bats in the Major Leagues, which makes him eligible for ROY still, but it seemed to be too many for me to include him in the rankings.

[Betterread]

"With the relievers, this is my personal opinion and more often than not, people disagree with me on it, but relievers, who are not top flight Bobby Jenks or Francisco Rodriguez type relievers wont get much attention. I dont see any of those relievers being closers, or at least dominant closers, and I dont think middle relievers impact a game enough to the point where they should be very high on any prospect ranking. Can they be good middle relievers? I think they can be for sure. Just not the closer type material that I think it would take for them to be in the top 15 for the Reds. As for Janish and Moran, I covered that earlier in reply to someone else, but I think both can be useful, yes. Age also comes into play with where some guys ranked. I just think that if some of the position players listed were to reach their potential they would be more valuable than a middle relief guy almost regardless. Just my opinion, Im not always right, but I guess I dont have a high prospect ranking for middle relief."

Good list DD. About the only significant changes would be to add Terrell Young and Jamie Arneson to the list - who both throw very hard in relief - and I would rate Camilo Vazquez in the top 15 and Danny Dorn in the top 20.

[Betterread]

Double post. my mistake.

[dougdirt]

Good list DD. About the only significant changes would be to add Terrell Young and Jamie Arneson to the list - who both throw very hard in relief - and I would rate Camilo Vazquez in the top 15 and Danny Dorn in the top 20.

Vazquez in the top 15? Lets hear why, I am intrigued.

As for Dorn, outside of higher round picks, what happens in rookie ball doesnt overly impress me much. If Dorn comes out next year and tears up whatever league he is playing in, then I am sure he will jump up, at least in my standings. Coming out as a 30 something round pick, he will have to show at the next level that he is up to par rather than a polished college hitter.

[Doc. Scott]

Vazquez in the top 15? Lets hear why, I am intrigued.

As for Dorn, outside of higher round picks, what happens in rookie ball doesnt overly impress me much. If Dorn comes out next year and tears up whatever league he is playing in, then I am sure he will jump up, at least in my standings. Coming out as a 30 something round pick, he will have to show at the next level that he is up to par rather than a polished college hitter.

Supposedly Dorn has more talent than his round-drafted indicates- he was injured and missed a healthy portion of his last college season. But your main point still stands.

Vazquez is post-TJ surgery, and perhaps he's added velocity? That's the only thing I can think of that might elevate him. He held his own in AA after the promotion, but certainly didn't dominate. A ton of unearned runs probably made things look better than they were.
---

As for the list, I'd say Cody Strait and Phil Dumatrait are too low and Milton Loo and Javon Moran are a little high. But overall that's a pretty decent list.

[dougdirt]

Doc, Cody Strait is someone I really like. I absolutely love his speed and power combo... He is a guy I think will have a break out year next year. Dumatrait is low, but I no longer view him as a starter, and reports had him having problems hitting the upper 80's in Louisville with his FB. He also cant get righties out, .284/.357/.449 against him.

[Aronchis]

Nice list, that pretty much accords to mine.

People who think Loo is to high now, will be putting him in the top 5 next year. The kid's a talent.

[Superdude]

What do you have against Vazquez? I don't know anything about his post TJ stuff, but I know he had a good arm out of high school. The guy is still only 22, and struck out almost a batter per innings between Sarasota and Chattanooga while lowering his walk rates to a respectable level. He still needs to bring down his walks a little bit, but you can't take one of the only decent starting pitching prospects we have above A ball and make him #40.

[BoilerBC11]

Nice list, that pretty much accords to mine.

People who think Loo is to high now, will be putting him in the top 5 next year. The kid's a talent.

whats the scouting report on Loo? I dont know much about him...

[dougdirt]

What do you have against Vazquez? I don't know anything about his post TJ stuff, but I know he had a good arm out of high school. The guy is still only 22, and struck out almost a batter per innings between Sarasota and Chattanooga while lowering his walk rates to a respectable level. He still needs to bring down his walks a little bit, but you can't take one of the only decent starting pitching prospects we have above A ball and make him #40.

Vazquez just turned 23 actually. The fact that his FB is only in the high 80's is something that draws me toward ranking him lower. He has a good curveball though, which is a plus. Hitters were also batting .286 against him in Chattanooga. The FB, BAA and a 1.52 WHIP were what got the ranking for Camilo.

[dougdirt]

whats the scouting report on Loo? I dont know much about him...

Milton Loo was projected to be a 2nd round pick if he had not signed with the Reds prior to this years draft. He was a draft and follow from 2005. Here is a scouting report from prior to this years draft on Loo


Scouting Report: Loo was the first prep player picked out of Hawaii in 2004, and he's been the best prospect in Arizona's wood-bat junior-college conference the last two seasons. He had led Yavapai to a 49-10 record and No. 2 national ranking into early May, though he wasn't the team's best player statistically. Loo, whose native island of Molokai has no stoplights, entices scouts with a five-tool potential. Though his present power remains below-average, his ability to cover the plate, make consistent, hard contact and repeat his short stroke make makes hitting his best tool, and his raw power could profile him for third base. He moved to that position at Yavapai, but scouts agree he could play short or any other infield position as a pro thanks to above-average arm strength, excellent athleticism, good range and solid infield actions. If Loo's effort and performance were more consistent, he'd rank among the nation's top position players. He's a plus runner and solid baserunner but doesn't run out ground balls as often as scouts want to see. After being bothered by a strained thumb and gimpy ankle in 2005, Loo missed time late this spring when his elbow flared up. It was diagnosed as nerve irritation, and he returned to DH in the postseason.

[mth123]

With the relievers, this is my personal opinion and more often than not, people disagree with me on it, but relievers, who are not top flight Bobby Jenks or Francisco Rodriguez type relievers wont get much attention. I dont see any of those relievers being closers, or at least dominant closers, and I dont think middle relievers impact a game enough to the point where they should be very high on any prospect ranking. Can they be good middle relievers? I think they can be for sure. Just not the closer type material that I think it would take for them to be in the top 15 for the Reds. As for Janish and Moran, I covered that earlier in reply to someone else, but I think both can be useful, yes. Age also comes into play with where some guys ranked. I just think that if some of the position players listed were to reach their potential they would be more valuable than a middle relief guy almost regardless. Just my opinion, Im not always right, but I guess I dont have a high prospect ranking for middle relief.


Generally, I agree with you about the relievers being less valuable. I guess my basis was a middle reliever is more valuable than a mop-up starter or a 25th man type position player. So by ranking some of these guys ahead of the relievers, you are basically saying you see them becoming more than 25th man on the roster material. (Which you verified with your comments about Moran and Janisch.) I guess that is a good sign. I'm not as convinced, but you have more knowledge than I do. At least these guys may bring something in trade if your assessment is correct.

So, forgetting the rankings and just looking at the players, do you see these relievers (Coutlangus, Medlock, etc.) filling a major league role above the mop-up level? The Reds have an immediate need for quality arms in the middle innings and I have hope for these guys. Also, what do you think of Pelland's future? Rotation? Bullpen? Loogy?

[dougdirt]

I honestly think the Chattanooga bullpen of Guevara, Coutlangus, Medlock and Shafer can all help the Reds bullpen out. With all of them in Chattanooga I cant believe we made the trade to improve the pen without giving some of those guys a shot first, but thats another story for another day. As for Pelland, I think next year is pretty crucial for him as far as his future if he wants to be a starter. He needs to make some strides forward with his control and his secondary stuff. On the bright side, he started today for his AFL team and went 4 innings, allowed 0 runs on 3 hits, had 0 walks and 4 strikeouts. He threw 32 of his 45 pitches for strikes, another good sign.

I also understand where you are coming from with the bullpen guys, I just think I have more faith in Janish and Moran than you that is all.

[Kc61]

I'm looking for Coutlangus to help the Reds soon. If I recall correctly, he is a converted position player and, therefore, has taken longer to develop. He seems a real steady lefty reliever and I have a bit more confidence in him right now than the other Chatanooga guys. Shafer is probably right behind him.

I also think people should be more positive about Janish. He isn't known for offense, but did ok in that department last year. If he can become a .250 or .260 hitter in the big leagues, this guy could be a starting shortstop for someone. Because of his poor rep for offense, I think people discount him, but he is still young and improving offensively. And supposedly first rate defensively.

[Superdude]

Vazquez just turned 23 actually. The fact that his FB is only in the high 80's is something that draws me toward ranking him lower.

crap. Wasn't he throwing low 90's out of high school? I guess he still might be an okay pitcher. I'm really let down now.

[HokieRed]

Good list, fun to think about. Two names I think belong somewhere. One would be Aaron Herr, the other James Avery. Herr put together a solid season offensively and was doing very well at Louisville until he got hit rather badly by a pitch and missed some time. Avery's overall numbers are a lot less impressive than his performance in stretches. He was FSL Pitcher of the Week at least twice, showed at times he could be just dominant. Anybody know more about him?

[dougdirt]

Good list, fun to think about. Two names I think belong somewhere. One would be Aaron Herr, the other James Avery. Herr put together a solid season offensively and was doing very well at Louisville until he got hit rather badly by a pitch and missed some time. Avery's overall numbers are a lot less impressive than his performance in stretches. He was FSL Pitcher of the Week at least twice, showed at times he could be just dominant. Anybody know more about him?
Aaron Herr will be 26 at the start of next season and he performed decent to good in AA, but nothing was mind blowing, so I left him off becuase of his age and not overly impressive performance.
James Avery had a 4.43 ERA or so and doesnt really strike anyone out. He had some good games in there, but overall his body of work was not impressive.


crap. Wasn't he throwing low 90's out of high school? I guess he still might be an okay pitcher. I'm really let down now.
He was, or at least he was said to be throwing that hard. Here is where I referenced him throwing in the high 80's.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5318
One American League scout thinks the Reds may have found a usuable lefty in 2002 fourth-round pick Camilo Vazquez, who was recently promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. "I realize his numbers aren't great, but he's a bit of a sleeper for me as a potential No. 4 or 5 starter," he said. "The curve is a real out pitch, and his fastball is only in the upper 80s but has really nice movement with some tailing action, and the change is usable. He's got a chance to break through."

[Betterread]

Vazquez in the top 15? Lets hear why, I am intrigued.

As for Dorn, outside of higher round picks, what happens in rookie ball doesnt overly impress me much. If Dorn comes out next year and tears up whatever league he is playing in, then I am sure he will jump up, at least in my standings. Coming out as a 30 something round pick, he will have to show at the next level that he is up to par rather than a polished college hitter.

I think Vazquez is a sleeper prospect because he has a good FB/Curve combination. I thought his velocity was low 90s, though. It seems like you have more current info that his velocity is high 80s. Still, he is in AA at age 22 and held his own. To reach prospect status, I think he needs a good (sub 270 BA and low whip) year in 2007 at AA.

It would surprise me if Dorn is not assigned to high A in 2007. He was injured often in college at Cal but was a lauded HS ballplayer and I think he has some size, power and hitting ability.

[dougdirt]

Yeah, I cant wait until next year to see how they promote and place guys in the minors.

[Betterread]

What depth the Reds organization had was in Billings and Dayton, so we should have a handful of prospects at Dayton and Sarasota next year. I bet Valaika gets assigned to Sarasota - so what about Morales? Sarasota should have a lot of offense. Dayton should have a lot of pitchers to watch - Gonzalez and Valiquette return in addition to all the Billings pitching talent, as well as Watson.

[TC81190]

I'd say move up Rosales, add Obisopo.

[lollipopcurve]

I'd say move up Rosales

I don't know. He seemed to go backwards in 06, and was already on the old side for A ball. I'm not aware of any significant injury problems, though I think he was nicked up at some point.

He needs a big rebound in 07, or he's off the map, I think. With Janish improving and Valaika and Turner behind him, Rosales becomes an underdog again.

[dougdirt]

lollipopcurve, Rosales was injured off an on the entire time he was in Sarasota. With that said though, I dont think he needs to be moved up at all.

[mth123]

I took another look at this list this morning and became a little curious about number 17 - Carlos Fisher. I wonder if he's a sleeper.

He was 23 in low A ball, but his numbers were awesome.

- His basic stats say 12 wins and 2.76 ERA with a WHIP of 1.14
- He struck out 3.2 Batters for every guy he walked
- He averaged 2.28 Walks per nine innings with 7.32 K's per nine.
- He gave up just 5 HR in 150 Innings
- He held the league to a .237 average off of him
- He averaged almost 2 ground outs for every fly out.
- He is right handed, 6-4 and 220 LBs

He played at Lewis and Clark State in Idaho. As a result of pitching in such a little known place (I assume that's why anyway) , he fell to the 11th round of the 2005 Draft. 2006 was his first year as a pro. (I can not find any stats on him pitching in 2005 after the draft.) This partially explains why he started the year at low A.

Anyone know more about this guy? What does he throw? What is his velocity? Why didn't he move-up to a higher level mid-year?

He'll be 24 in February so he needs to move a little faster and at least finish 2007 in AA. He seems like a guy that would be a good choice for GABP with his GB rate. If he moves up as the numbers suggest, this may be another find courtesy of DanO.

[dougdirt]

I think Fisher is a sleeper. He did not pitch until he was a sophomore in college. Probably a reason he lasted until the 11th round. He has a fastball that sits in the low 90's and has a good slider. One knock on him when he waas drafted is his secondary stuff was not always that good. He was drafted as an outfielder out of HS by the Padres but didnt sign. So he is very athletic, which is always good in a pitcher.

[Superdude]

Fisher's got some nice sink on his fastball also. Does anyone know if he has, or is working on, a changeup?

[Scrap Irony]

My Top Ten has many of the same faces, but in a slightly different order:

10. Chris Dickerson, 24 AA
His second half (273 BA/ 423 OBP/ 527 SLG/ 950 OPS) is the stuff of a solid A-/ B+ prospect (due to age and K concerns). His first half-- and the previous four years-- were the stuff of a suspect. If he's really turned the corner, Dickerson is a legitimate uber-prospect. If not, he's still an above average defender at all three OF positions, particularly CF. This year, in AAA, will largely determine what type of impact Dickerson can have at the major league level. He's got unquestionable talent and one half of a solid season.
Fearless Prediction: Dickerson will lead AAA in K's, striking out at a Dunnian pace. He will also show flashes of brilliance, but will struggle most of the year offensively.

9. Tyler Pelland, 23 AA
He's a lefty with plus stuff. He's been slightly above average a year before he should be. With a season of AA under his belt, my bet is Pelland pitches much, much better this season. (Think Phil Dumatrait AA 2005, for reference.) He's still young enough and talented enough to be a solid #3 starter in the bigs, but he needs to cut down on his walks. A lot. If he does, he's golden. If not, he's still a serviceable LOOGY out of the pen and those are fairly valuable. (Not Kearns and Lopez valuable, but valuable, but important, nonetheless.)
Fearless Prediction: Very good year in AA, with a late move to AAA and the struggles that go along with it. A move up the prospect ladder, possibly to the Top Five.

8. Chris Valaika, 21 Billings
Valaika was a surprise last season, to say the least. If he can play SS (and all the pundits say he may be able to), he's a much better prospect than if he can only play 2B. Offensively, Valaika raked all season, hitting with pop (a 900+ OPS) especially. This year is all-important for Valaika, as he needs to at least show the baseball world last season wasn't an abberation.
Fearless Prediction: The bet here is he's shown most of what he has and will settle into a solid, if unspectacular prospect in the C+ to B- range.

7. Milton Loo, 20 Rookie
Loo was injured pretty much from the get-go after the Reds drafted him. He still hit and hit well. Supposedly, his glove is well above average, but his bat speed is what will separate him from the minor league pack. I love what little I've seen/ heard about him. This year, probably in short-season Billings, Loo should be a monster. If he jumps two levels (highly doubtful, considering injuries, age, and the Reds' penchant for leaving players in lower leagues longer), he could survive. If he only jumps one, he could be Gary Redus, redux.
Fearless Prediction: By this time next season, Loo will jump at least four spots and may occupy the second spot in the Red prospect Top Ten.

6. Chris Denorfia, 27 AAA/ Norris Hopper, 28 AAA
I know, I cheated. Sue me. Both players are ready right now. Both players can help the Reds. They are extremely similar, in terms of career projections, with Denorfia's power overshadowing Hopper's speed. Both could develop into above average CF's with lead-off capabilities. Both are likey fourth OF's on a team that needs a lead-off hitter. Sigh. (Damn you, Jerry Narron.) Denorfia has done everything a prospect can in the minor leagues; he's blossomed into a solid prospect over the past three years. Hopper provided an outstanding AAA year in 2006. Can they do it again in the majors?
Fearless Prediction: Both Hopper and Denorfia are capable fourth outfielders and nothing more. Neither take the reins on the Red RF spot and Cincinnati turns to Ryan Freel in CF, with Junior in LF, and Dunn in RF. Both Hopper and Denorfia play a bunch, as neither Freel nor Junior are capable of playing everyday. Think Brady Clark solid production.

5. Joey Votto, 23 AA
Votto, a has-been, once-again prospect, blossomed with the regime change. He's got pop in his bat, though scouts are still waiting on that light pole to light pole 60+ power he is capable of. He's got speed-- much more than is typical of the usual lumbering first sacker. He's also able to work the count, with an OBP over 400 and an OPS over 950. You can't ask for more from him. Actually, I can. In AAA Louisville, Votto will be able to punch some really, really cheap dingers to right field. (The short porch is a lazy fly ball away.) If he continues to progress, 30 homers in AAA is not out of the cards. That should make him the erstwhile starter in 2008 and a good bet for national pub as a ROY possibility.
Fearless Prediction: Votto's BA drops to the 280's, but his power numbers go up. Not as good a year as last, but solid. At his peak, Votto is Sean Casey, v. 1995. He's not there yet.

4. Travis Wood, 19 Low A
An extremely solid sophomore season after a truly phenomenal rookie year keep Wood highly ranked. He's hard to hit and doesn't walk many (though his BB's rose precipitously this year). There's not much to quibble about, as he was at least a year younger than most in Dayton this past season. With a step up the ladder, Wood should continue to see his star rise. He's not overly big, at just 6' tall and 190 lbs. But he's still just 19 and his fastball should slide up a notch as well, resting in the low to mid 90's. If that's the case, Wood is a #2 starter in the bigs, as his curve and especially his change is all world.
Fearless Prediction: Another very good year from the Arkansas Assassin. A Top 100 prospect in baseball. Possibly Top 25. He's that good.

3. Johnny Cueto, 20 High A
Cueto burst out of nowhere, solidifying a spot in the Top Three based on his mid-season jump to Sarasota, where, after initial struggles, he settled into a solid groove. In fact, in Cueto's last ten outings, only one disastrous start (1.2 IP/ 8 ER) and one stinker (5.1 IP/ 5 ER) were less than outstanding. He has outstanding stuff, but is a bit undersized. The bet here is he moves up to AA at the beginning of the season and shines. If he can get his control struggles from High A out of the way early, Cueto may be among the top five or six pitcher prospects in the entire game.
Fearless Prediction: Cueto's jump from Sarasota to AA Chattanooga is Bailey-esque, but questions about his size keep him from achieving the press that Bailey has enjoyed.

2. Jay Bruce, 19 Low A
Bruce is a man-child. He's a solid five-tooler in the Larry Walker mold. And it's about time, as Cincinnati needs him as soon as he can get there. If not sooner. Bruce should be the next in a long line of Cincy sluggers that can run and hit with pop. He's also capable, at this point, of manning CF. There are few holes In Bruce's game, though he could stand to K less and walk a bit more. Still, as a 19 year old in Dayton, Bruce shone. Can he repeat? Time will tell.
Fearless Prediction: Bruce becomes the top prospect in High A in 07 and is a media darling. Power production rises across the board, but his BA takes a slight dip.

1. Homer Bailey, 20 AA
Simply put, Bailey is the most important Red prosect of the past twenty years. I hate to put that pressure on the kid, but it's true. He's an ace in the making and is capable of being among the very best pitchers in the entire game. He's got a HOF arm, ratcheting the ball up to the high 90's and sitting in the mid 90's all game long. His fastball also has sick movement at times. His curve and change are coming along, but he needs to refine both to be at his most effective. He'll likely come up by the All Star Break this season and is already among the top ten prospects in the game.
Fearless Prediction: Bailey comes north in early May and establishes himself as a bone fide ROY candidate. He struggles some, but when he's on, he's almost unhittable.

[mth123]

10. Chris Dickerson, 24 AA
His second half (273 BA/ 423 OBP/ 527 SLG/ 950 OPS) is the stuff of a solid A-/ B+ prospect (due to age and K concerns). His first half-- and the previous four years-- were the stuff of a suspect. If he's really turned the corner, Dickerson is a legitimate uber-prospect. If not, he's still an above average defender at all three OF positions, particularly CF. This year, in AAA, will largely determine what type of impact Dickerson can have at the major league level. He's got unquestionable talent and one half of a solid season.
Fearless Prediction: Dickerson will lead AAA in K's, striking out at a Dunnian pace. He will also show flashes of brilliance, but will struggle most of the year offensively.

I share your optimism about Dickerson. Its hard to ignore his 4 years of mediocrity, but I also noted his 2nd half and he has good plate discipline and power. His speed and defense add to he package. I think he could sneak into a role. I think of Wily Mo with good defense.

As for the rest of the list, I'm not as high on Pelland and higher on Votto. I think Votto will be a consistent, legit force in the middle of the line-up. Something Casey never really became. I hope it happens in 2007.

I think you are right on about Deno, but I predict Hopper will be a memory by this time next year. Actually Dickerson, Strait and Stubbs will make Moran and Hopper very expendable. Moran won't bring much and Hopper will bring less.

I have heard the opposite about Valaika. If he can project at SS his value will soar.

[Superdude]

Here's my top 10... I would go to 40, but I just don't feel like it.

1) Homer Bailey
Pretty obvious #1. I would have Bailey in the rotation on opening day. His numbers compare well to Kazmir in 2004, and Kazmir put up a 3.77ERA in '05. Granted, Kazmir had some ML experience in '04, but when you have a chance to make the playoffs, I say give it all you got.

2) Jay Bruce
He made Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin look like Royce Clayton's younger brothers last year. He just consistently scorches the ball. Nearly half of his hits went for extra bases last year. Just wait until he adds muscle.

3) Joey Votto
I was worried after his '05 season, but he quickly got back on the horse. Could be the next Sean Casey circa 1999-00? Hopefully without the massive power outage.

4) Johnny Cueto
If he was actually sitting at 93-97MPH in the FSL, I could care less how tall he is. He should fit very nicely behind Bailey in our futuristic rotation. Once again: Thank you Mario Soto.

5) Travis Wood
His velocity dipped this year. Not sure why, but his changeup is absolutely sick and he still had a very nice season in Dayton. A lot of his potential rides on how, or if, his velocity bounces back, and the development of his curveball, which is a plus pitch about 7% of the times he throws it.

6) Drew Stubbs
I know he struggled, but it was only like 200 rookie ball at bats. I think he'll have a good year in Dayton and prove a few people wrong. Not saying I love him or anything, but I can't stand it when people call him a bust already.

7) Milton Loo
Everyone else seems to love the guy, so I'll just go ahead and join the bandwagon. There's nothing sexier than a 5 tool shortstop. We'll get a better idea next year.

8) Sam Lecure
His K rate was a tad low this year, but he still did a pretty nice job. He looks like a future #4 and could be up pretty soon.

9) Paul Janish
He quit trying to take a walk every at bat this year and ended up batting over .300 with 14 homers. He may slip from that a bit at AA, but if his glove is as good as everybody says it is, he could be a gold glove shortstop with decent pop at the plate. Always a nice combo.

10) Sean Watson
Mid 90's fastball with a wicked breaking ball. He's a little raw for a college pitcher, but he's got the makings of a great power repertoire.

[redsmetz]

He was, or at least he was said to be throwing that hard. Here is where I referenced him throwing in the high 80's.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5318
One American League scout thinks the Reds may have found a usuable lefty in 2002 fourth-round pick Camilo Vazquez, who was recently promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. "I realize his numbers aren't great, but he's a bit of a sleeper for me as a potential No. 4 or 5 starter," he said. "The curve is a real out pitch, and his fastball is only in the upper 80s but has really nice movement with some tailing action, and the change is usable. He's got a chance to break through."

I've often heard that lefties can get by without a blazing fastball. I remember a friend who pitched for XU who signed a minor league contract with the Cards. A rightie, his fastball was topping out in the mid to high 80's. He was contemporary of Charlie Liebrandt (Miami, IIRC) who had basically the same stuff. He left after a few weeks because he knew he'd never make it to the ML. I remember him saying if he'd been a lefthander, he probably could have made it. Just curious as to others thoughts on this.

[Gallen5862]

2B William Bergolla is a 6 year free agent along with Herr.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/news/262709.html
Cincinnati Reds
C Ryan Jorgensen(resigned)
C Rafael Motooka
1B Earl Snyder
2B William Bergolla
2B Matt Kata
3B Habelito Hernandez
SS Javier Colina
SS Aaron Herr(resigned)
SS Gary Patchett
SS Hector Tiburcio
OF Gary Varner
RHP James Abbott
RHP Giancarlo Alvarado
RHP Joel Barreto
RHP Tim Bausher
RHP Jeff Bruksch
RHP Josh Hall
RHP Jake Robbins
RHP Edward Valdez
LHP Chad Bentz
LHP Jan Granado
LHP Richard Stahl

[Redmachine2003]

One theing I liked about last years draft is that the Reds drafted some hitters and not just project guys. I mean for years the Reds drafted players because they could run fast, hit the ball a mile and had a very strong arm but couldn't put the ball in play. This year they picked (other than Stubbs) guys who had a proven track record of putting the ball in play and still had a little pop in their bats. These guys may not be the super stars but they can make great fillers on teams. You know those tough outs that make the pitcher work, the guys on base when the meat of your order comes up, the guys that can and will do the little things to win. Now if they can just figure out how to draft pitching alittle better.

[cincyinco]

I rather liked a lot of the pitchers drafted this year Redmachine2003..

A lot of the HS guys are big and projectable, with room to grow. And a lot of the college guys seem like prototypical pitcher bodies.. big, tall, with some meat on them and most can dial it up to the mid 90s.. hopefully they wont break down.

They might not have been the "big name" guys on draft day, but they all seem very intriguing. I am interested to see especially how 2 pitchers, Watson and Ravin, will progress this year. Watson has a good repitiore(sp?), and Ravin reportedly got his velocity up to 96 in short season ball.