View Full Version : NL Leadoff Hitters-2006

10-20-2006, 10:52 AM
I am currently doing some messing around with Runs Created by battng order and noticed
that I had some data that people might want to look at. This is in notepad form
so that the columns (hopefully) will line up and make it easier to read. I was not trying to reach any conclusions but if you want to make a stab go right ahead.

10-20-2006, 11:23 AM
Thank you, Dave. It's very interesting.

10-20-2006, 11:53 AM
Boy that is an interesting dataset.
I'll have to ponder that.

10-20-2006, 12:03 PM
Dave, this is an excellent piece of data here since it highlights some key ingredients in our lineup efficiencies throughout the 2006 season. Individual runs scored are partly a function of an individual player's ability to get on-base, but they are also the result of the team's ability to avoid outs (OBP) and acquire bases (SLG) in the lineup slots immediately following that individual player.

In Ryan Freel's case, this is very interesting.

According to Dave's data set here, Ryan Freel's .359 OBP ranks 6th among the 17 players, which is right around being in the top third of players listed. The average OBP of the players listed is .340, and the 2006 National League OBP in the leadoff slot is .337, which is very close. Freel's runs created per 650 plate appearances ranks him 9th out of the 17 players, which pegs him right near the middle of all listed.

However, as Dave points out, his runs scored per 650 plate appearances only ranks 16th out of the 17 players. Freel did get caught stealing 11 times, and he had a few pickoffs noted as well. But while those are going to have a slight effect, that's not what jumps out at me.

The key function of Freel's ability to get on-base mixed with his inability to come all the way around to score is quite possibly because the hitters behind Freel did a poor job of getting around the bases and across the plate. Let's analyze the Reds' OBP and SLG from each lineup slot after Freel leads off ...

Reds OBP/SLG by Lineup Slot

Lineup Stat Reds 2006 NL Ratio

#2 OBP .339 .344 .985
#2 SLG .377 .419 .900

#3 OBP .326 .369 .883
#3 SLG .476 .490 .971

#4 OBP .344 .374 .920
#4 SLG .482 .499 .966

Notice the ratios here. The Reds were below average in OBP and SLG in each lineup slot from #2 to #4. This means that once Freel got on base, the hitters behind him were making outs at a much greater frequency than the league average and also acquiring fewer bases than the league average.

Freel's inability to translate his above average OBP in the leadoff slot to an efficient total of runs scored isn't fault; rather, this is a pure indictment of the inability of the hitters behind Freel to get him around the bases and across the plate.

Here's the key contributors in each lineup slot:

#2: Scott Hatteberg at .215/.322/.292 in ~150 plate appearances.
#3: Ken Griffey, Jr. at .249/.313/.484 in ~445 plate appearances.
#4: Rich Aurilia at .269/.316/.485 in ~245 plate appearances.

The combination of too many outs being made behind Freel in conjunction with too few bases being acquired really created a highly inefficient offense throughout much of the season. One way to clean up those inefficiencies is to run out better lineups, or more efficient lineups, that lack few holes in OBP and SLG in key, middle of the order slots. Going forward in 2007, the Reds need to take a look at why this offense was as inefficient as it was and make corrections in order to put a few more runs up on the scoreboard.

Johnny Footstool
10-20-2006, 12:22 PM
If anything, this is an argument to keep Adam Dunn in the #2 spot in the order, where his .417 OBP helps a ton. BTW - he had 23 RBIs in only 123 ABs hitting second.

This also illustrates how valuable Felipe Lopez (.343 OBP in the #2 spot) was to the offense. Other than Dunn, his replacements were terrible. Phillips only had 64 ABs in the 2-hole, but his .224 OPB did some serious damage. Even Scott Hatteberg was bad in the #2 hole (.322 OPB in 130ABs).

It's also a great argument for dropping Griffey out of the #3 spot (.316 OPB).

10-20-2006, 12:43 PM
Send this info to Krivsky and Narron. :jump:

10-20-2006, 01:38 PM
The Reds' offense clearly underperformed in 2006. Cincinnati was 7th in OBP, SLG and OPS; yet finished 9th in Runs Scored. I then looked at Runs Scored as compared to Runs Created to see how that stacked up (see attached). Not very well. Thanks to Cyclone for shining a light on the data and showing why. This is actually good news in a way. If the Reds' resources are utilized in a more efficient manner the 2007 team should score more runs. Once again all stats were found at ESPN.com.

10-20-2006, 05:25 PM
Send this info to Krivsky and Narron. :jump:

Send it to Krivsky. Don't waste your time with Narron. He wouldn't know what to do with it anyway.