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View Full Version : what if we can't make a trade?



Will M
10-22-2006, 05:47 PM
I was thinking about all the trade ideas thrown out by posters and a thought hit me: trades are difficult to make for a GM. You have to trade an excess and fill a need all the while taking the other teams excesses/needs into account. ( not to mention salary needs ). It got me to thinking: what if WK can't pull off a nice trade this off season? what if the Reds basically stand pat?

If we resign our decent free agents ( Aurillia, Weathers, Schowenweis ) and sign one halfway decent free agent 2B or OF ( I am think of cheap but decent guys like Kenny Lofton or Jose Valentin ) we would have:

SP Arroyo Harang Lohse Milton EZ ( Bailey starts 2007 in AAA )
RP Weathers Schowenweis Coffey Cormier Bray Majik Belisle
C Ross/Valentin & LaRue
1B Hatteberg/Aurillia ( Votto starts 2007 in AAA )
2B Freel or free agent
SS Phillips
3B EE
LF Dunn
CF Deno/Freel or Deno/free agent
RF Griffey

This team has 2 good starters, a decent but unspectacular pen, a decent but unspectacular offense, and a decent defense.

I really can't see this team being more than average.
Arroyo & Harang had very good years and this years team went 80-82.
2/5 of the SP being solid and 3/5 being suspect is not a good recipe for a playoff team.

This team would really need Bailey to arrive early in 2007 and make an impact right away and it would also help if Votto's bat arrived early { pushing Hatteberg to the bench }

- Will ( looking forward to 2008 )

TeamBoone
10-22-2006, 07:04 PM
I don't think we have to worry about not making a trade.

I just have this horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that WK is going to trade AD.... I don't think there's but a handful of people who think the Reds should keep him (I'm one of that handful), not the fans, not the media, and probably not WK.

That will be one sad day for me (and, I think, the team too, in more ways than one).

Falls City Beer
10-22-2006, 07:09 PM
If Wayne can't pull off a big trade this offseason, then he has no business being a GM.

terminator
10-22-2006, 09:59 PM
You're right, if we stand pat we aren't going to get magically better. If we come back with those players we'll be .500 or worse.

Our hopes are: 1) Wayne makes some magical trades and pickups, or 2) Wayne builds with drafts and prospect trades. Option #2 is a long term solution and IMHO the more realistic path to success. Given our lack of depth at any spot other than catcher, we really don't have a surplus that we can trade to solve our problem areas in the short term.

mth123
10-22-2006, 11:06 PM
I wouldn't make a huge deal. I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer.

With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close.

They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008 or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get.

dunner13
10-22-2006, 11:33 PM
I think wayne is going to make some major moves this offseason. He already made alot of moves during the season, no reason to think that wont continue. I think he will see what he can get for dunn and if someone makes a good deal that he will take it. Pitching and Defense is the new direction of the reds.

jnwohio
10-22-2006, 11:46 PM
I wouldn't make a huge deal. I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer.

With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close.

They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008 or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get.


Why do so many folks seem to think that the rest of the division and league can rebuild on the fly so much faster than the Reds? Is it that a side efect of parity is often the mediocrity we also saw all around this season? BUt iof everybody is mediocre, in terms of getting to the post season does that really matter?

Within their division the Reds had clearly winning records against both the teams that finished above them. Both of those teams also have major issues looking to next year; and ironically the Cards may actually have more trouble cutting the cord and moving forward because of the success they have experienced in the post season.

redsmetz
10-23-2006, 08:26 AM
At the very least, one of the catchers will go. We will have some free agent signing or another and I think the rotation will be addressed as well. Keep in mind too that both the pitching and batting coach positions need to be filled and that could (not the word "could") help in two areas that struggled during the season. But I think the "least" isn't all that is going to happen. If we could get this darn World Series over with and get to letting teams make their moves, we could hurry up and get to next season! :)

dougdirt
10-23-2006, 08:49 AM
If we cant make a trade to bring some talent in here, we better pray that we can bring in some talent via FA, or we are going to be a bad team again.

Krusty
10-23-2006, 08:54 AM
Wayne K. already made a minor league deal for the infielder Gil to kick off the offseason. We aren't talking about Dan O'Brien here.

I said before I think Dunn will be on this team come 2007. Most teams will go through free agency first to sign the hitters they need before making a deal for Dunn.

With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds sign a free agent starter (Jason Schimdt?), closer (Eric Gagne?) and sign either Alex Gonzalez or Adam Kennedy to fill either the second base or shortstop spot.

cincy09
10-23-2006, 10:13 AM
to answer the question: What if we can't make a trade?
I guess that would mean status quo. we all know how that worked out!

dougdirt
10-23-2006, 01:44 PM
I guess that would mean status quo. we all know how that worked out!
Dano had his plan in place and it seemed tobe going in the right direction. He just didnt have the time to finish it up.

Redsland
10-23-2006, 03:16 PM
Dano had his plan in place and it seemed tobe going in the right direction. He just didnt have the time to finish it up.
True, but in fairness to Castellini, a thousand years is a long time to wait.

:)

Will M
10-23-2006, 04:18 PM
1. I generally agree with your assessment. I think the future looks brighter than the past but it will be 2008/2009 not 2007.

2. " I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. "

What I don't want WK to do is sign some pitcher to a long bad contract ( Milton? Chan Ho Park? Jared Wright? Pavano? etc etc ) . I am not sure we can sign a #3 SP when so many other richer teams need pitching.

3. " Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. "

IMO:
Trade LaRue.
Hatteberg plays 1B ( or platoons at 1B ) until Votto is ready.
Freel could be traded since he could wear out quick and might not be a good player come say 2009.
Don't trade Majik now & lets see what he can do if healthy.
Cormier is tradable especially if we resign Schowenweis.

" Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. "
ok

" Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer. "
Agree.


4. "With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close."

Sounds like a nice team circa 2009. sigh

5. They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get. "

agree.

Tom Servo
10-23-2006, 04:19 PM
Dano had his plan in place and it seemed tobe going in the right direction. He just didnt have the time to finish it up.
I'm in almost inclined to agree but then I remember that the few trades DanO made were for Jung Bong, Tony Womack, and Dave Williams and suddenly that sentiment evaporates.

wheels
10-23-2006, 06:00 PM
I'm in almost inclined to agree but then I remember that the few trades DanO made were for Jung Bong, Tony Womack, and Dave Williams and suddenly that sentiment evaporates.

Not to mention the millions he threw away on a broken pitcher with no real track record, as well as the millions he blew on a guy that had an arm that was clearly about to fall off......

Thank goodness Castellini pulled the plug when he did.

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2006, 08:22 PM
Oh there will be some trades made if for no other reason than to improve that shotty defense. They will mostly seem to be smaller deals with perhaps one solid deal for a true closer. It's not what you trade for that matters but what you can get out of that trade. Case in point Brandon Phillips, David Ross and the like perhaps some of those others will turn up as well like Coutlangus or Gil.

The defense has got to improve dramatically or we don't get anywhere. Jose Guillen wouldn't be bad for this team on the field offensively and defensively. But it's his inability to stay healthy and happy that would hurt this team the most.

Let's see the likely defense and where and how it can improve. For arguments sake I am going to start with players where they are currently because no matter what we believe could or will happen they already have a position on this team.

C Ross (Could still improve some aspects but still a decent defender)
1B Hatteberg (Solid glove, avg to below range and only 5 ft 11)
2B Phillips (A gold glover in the making)
3B Encarnacion (Look for errors to cut in half, should be the next big thing)
SS ???
LF Dunn (Not the worst defensive LFer in BB IMO, but is below average)
CF Griffey (His years in CF should be over if not then we have troubles)
RF ???

These are your starters people and no matter how much some would like him to be Freel is viewed by his own manager as a 4 game a week player and that is the only opinion that matters right now and in the near future. Phillips could be moved to SS and I would not mind seeing him given the opportunity, as it is easier and cheaper to find a full time 2B than it is to find an everyday SS. Griffey should be moved to another position but who knows if that will happen.

So in essence then you need a CF (Freel/Deno?) a 2B/SS and either move Jr. to RF (Not sure how much that really helps the defense) or find a way to rid yourself of him (There are ways), And then get a full time RF.

Maybe something like this would improve us a great deal w/o much wheeling and dealing or expense.

C Ross
1B Hatteberg/Craig Wilson/Eduardo Perez???
2B Mark Loretta/Jerry Hairston Jr./Adam Kennedy
SS Brandon Phillips
3B EE
LF Dunn
CF Freel/Deno
RF Jr. or maybe a Shannon Stewart type.

I don't know all the answers w/o knowing who all is available but improving defense should be the main priority as it is cheap and effective. I might even consider dealing certain untouchables not named Homer to get that one pivotal piece whatever the powers-that-be decide that piece is! My gut is that we need a RH impact type bat in a position of need that will improve us defensively. Miguel Tejada would fit that description if his defense wasn't plummeting. Jermaine Dye in RF would be solid if the Sox have not already p/u their team option (likely have). I also like the idea of pursuing Ian Kinsler more and make him the 2B with our dearth of bullpen options.

Not sure but throwing some things against the wall might help us understand a bit better.

Will M
11-23-2006, 10:10 PM
I was thinking about all the trade ideas thrown out by posters and a thought hit me: trades are difficult to make for a GM. You have to trade an excess and fill a need all the while taking the other teams excesses/needs into account. ( not to mention salary needs ). It got me to thinking: what if WK can't pull off a nice trade this off season? what if the Reds basically stand pat?

If we resign our decent free agents ( Aurillia, Weathers, Schowenweis ) and sign one halfway decent free agent 2B or OF ( I am think of cheap but decent guys like Kenny Lofton or Jose Valentin ) we would have:

SP Arroyo Harang Lohse Milton EZ ( Bailey starts 2007 in AAA )
RP Weathers Schowenweis Coffey Cormier Bray Majik Belisle
C Ross/Valentin & LaRue
1B Hatteberg/Aurillia ( Votto starts 2007 in AAA )
2B Freel or free agent
SS Phillips
3B EE
LF Dunn
CF Deno/Freel or Deno/free agent
RF Griffey

This team has 2 good starters, a decent but unspectacular pen, a decent but unspectacular offense, and a decent defense.

I really can't see this team being more than average.
Arroyo & Harang had very good years and this years team went 80-82.
2/5 of the SP being solid and 3/5 being suspect is not a good recipe for a playoff team.

This team would really need Bailey to arrive early in 2007 and make an impact right away and it would also help if Votto's bat arrived early { pushing Hatteberg to the bench }

- Will ( looking forward to 2008 )

OK. One month into the offseason and Krisky has not made some big blockbuster nor ( IMO ) does one seem to be on the horizon.
We filled the SS void not with a big trade but with a small FA pickup.
We didn't swing a big deal for a closer.
We really don't have any big trade bait other than Dunn.
I would be suprised if we traded Dunn seeing that our offense needs a boost even if we don't trade him.
The free agent market looks weak.

Here is what we will likely have ( IMO ) at best in 2007:
C Valentin/Ross
1B Hatteberg/Eddie Perez or Craig Wilson or someone similar
( Votto starts in AAA )
2B Phillips
SS Gonzales
3b EE
LF Dunn
CF Deno or Freel
RF Griffey vs RHP, Deno or Freel vs LHP
Utility IF Castro
5th OF Crosby/Hopper

1. Arroyo
2. Harang
3. Wolf or Padilla ( some decent FA pitcher but not Jason Schmidt )
4. Lohse
5. Milton
( Bailey starts in AAA )

Closer: Bray
RP: Coffey, Majik, Cormier, Belisle, Stanton, EZ

Defense: better but not great.
SS, CF & 2B will be strong. I think EE will be better in 2007.
But catcher, 1B, LF & RF are still soft spots.
Griffey and Dunn in the same outfield is brutal.

Offensively... below average. Potential for really bad - Griffey goes down, Ross is a one year wonder, Phillips is a one year wonder, etc.

Staring pitching: a strong point if a #3 is obtained and a really strong point if a #3 is obtained & Bailey arrives.

Bullpen: better than 2006 but average. depth of decent major league pitchers but no lights out closer.

Now... this team looks average to me. Not bad but not good.
Another 80-82?

Does anyone have a realistic plan they could see Krisky employing to improve on my 2007 Reds?