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mth123
10-24-2006, 06:46 AM
Jamie Moyer signed a 2 year extension worth $10.5 Million.

Moyer will be 44 years old next opening day, his ERA was still ok (below 4.40), he gives up homers and is now in a homer park.

I'm not really surprised because I think the market is through the roof for starters. More than we've seen so far. I am surprised by 2 years. It could mean:

- $3.5 Million may not be so far out of line for Lohse. (I don't really want the Reds to keep Lohse for that, but there may be a trade market for him.)

- Milton could probably be traded during the season with whatever is left on his contract moved and something in return. (Not now because of the surgery.)

- A desireable pitcher will probably cost big, big bucks. If Moyer were 10 years younger he would command more than Milton money and I think it will take at least that to get anyone we might even marginally want. Top 5 or 6 guys will get over $10 Million per year IMO.

- Guys like Ramirez and Claussen may have more value than we think and might be able to bring a decent position prospect (SS?) If they prove they are healthy. They might fetch a somewhat pricey veteran or a price increasing young veteran with some flaws (sort of like Lopez was).

Not much of this is new, but this signing adds evidence to what we've been suspecting.

redsmetz
10-24-2006, 08:24 AM
It's getting to the point with some of these pitchers that they'll be able retire to their baseball pension AND their social security! How many guys in their
40's are still pitching?

And I hope Julio Franco just keeps going - the last guy still playing born in the same decade as me! And he shows no signs of stopping. Minnie Minosa (and Satcel Paige) aside, the oldest players have played to age 49. I wonder if Franco will make it to 50.

flyer85
10-24-2006, 09:11 AM
An indication that no start pitching will be cheap in the upcoming free agent market, in fact, it will be way overpriced.

Will M
10-24-2006, 09:14 AM
decent guys like Lilly, Padilla, Ohka are going to be grossly overpaid.

letting Lohse go and signing a free agent #3 SP is going to cost $$$ and could bite the Reds for years ( Pavano, Jared Wright, Milton, Chan Ho Park, etc etc etc )

IF ( a big IF ) the Reds could trade Dunn for quality young major league or AAA pitching they should do it. Hitters are much cheaper to get on the free agent market than pitchers

RedsManRick
10-24-2006, 09:55 AM
I'd give Loshe a 2 mil base with performance incentives with million dollar bumps at 100, 130, 160, and 200 IP to make it attractive and then a mutual option for 2008. He's got some good stuff, he's just horribly inconsistent with it. I'd much rather take a 1 year flier on him than overspend on somebody else.

dunner13
10-24-2006, 11:48 AM
I'd give Loshe a 2 mil base with performance incentives with million dollar bumps at 100, 130, 160, and 200 IP to make it attractive and then a mutual option for 2008. He's got some good stuff, he's just horribly inconsistent with it. I'd much rather take a 1 year flier on him than overspend on somebody else.

That would mean if he throws 200 innings he gets 6 million. Seems a little high to me. How about half million increases which would put him at 4 million if he made 200 innings. With our rotation you could pitch 200 innings and have an era of 5.00 Which to me would not make him a 6 million dollar pitcher.

M2
10-24-2006, 12:08 PM
Trade is defintely the avenue the Reds will need to pursue to find new pitchers. The good news is their rotation is anchored by two guys acquired for Jose Guillen and Wily Mo Pena. You don't have to denude your club for arms if you have a discerning eye.

flyer85
10-24-2006, 12:29 PM
Trade is defintely the avenue the Reds will need to pursue to find new pitchers. and be patient and develop your own. The free agent market for starters is nothing but fools gold for a small market team. You end up spending way too much money for bad pitchers.

Reds are better off hoping to catch a little bit lightning from Belisle, Ramirez, etc than they are throwing a money at free agents that would be in their price range.

oneupper
10-24-2006, 02:48 PM
I'd give Loshe a 2 mil base with performance incentives with million dollar bumps at 100, 130, 160, and 200 IP to make it attractive and then a mutual option for 2008. He's got some good stuff, he's just horribly inconsistent with it. I'd much rather take a 1 year flier on him than overspend on somebody else.

Isn't Lohse arbitration-eligible? He's already making $4 mm, so he's guaranteed $3.2 mm if he's offered arbitration. Unlikely he gets much less than $4 mm in arbitration anyway.
He'd be silly to sign a incentive-laden contract like that one, risk getting injured and giving up a lot of money.

The alternative is letting him go. Once the REDS see what the FA SP are commanding, that won't be an option either.

REDS will sign him for 1 year at $4 mm with an option for 2008 (with a buyout). I'm not saying that's what I like, but that's what I think will happen.

Pray he pitches well.

Will M
10-24-2006, 04:59 PM
" The alternative is letting him go. Once the REDS see what the FA SP are commanding, that won't be an option either. "

as I said in a different thread there is no guarantee that Lilly, Eaton,Padilla,Ohka,etc will be any better than Lohse in 2007 and some of them will be getting $30,000,000 over 3 years. yikes

mth123
10-24-2006, 08:53 PM
Reds could sign Lohse for $4 Million and trade him for a reliever with closer stuff (but not an established closer) or some other non-starting pitcher need, and go with Milton, Lizard and Claussen with Belisle as an alternative and Bailey allowing a Milton trade by July.

If Bailey is 75% of what he projects to be, a top 3 of Bailey, Harang and Arroyo is probably the best top 3 in the division by 2008. Cueto and Wood will be on the verge by then as well and I like Lizard as a #5. I know this is not what people are used to, but for the long term, starting pitching is not this team's biggest problem. This assumes that Arroyo can be kept around a while. This doesn't mean we should stop adding quality arms by the way. It does mean that there should not be a panic move to sign a #3 or 4 caliber guy for $10 Million/year.

11BarryLarkin11
10-25-2006, 05:03 PM
Personally, I don't think Moyer's contract has any implications for free agent pitching at all.

He's signed to about $5M per season, which is far from expensive. In fact, it could be considered a bargain for a lefthanded starting pitcher with 6+ years of service time who annually pitches 200+ innings a year. His contract doesn't exactly explode the free agent market for starting pitchers. There is a long list of terrible contracts for free agent starting pitchers over the past few years.

For example:
Odalis Perez (2007: $7.75M)
Kris Benson (2007: $7.5M)
Jaret Wright (2007: $7M)
Carl Pavano (2007: $10M)
Eric Milton (2007:$9M)
Matt Clement (2007: $9.5M)

And, that's just the tip of the iceberg and it's not likely to get better any time soon, as the average MLB salary has gone up about 10% per year over the past decade or so. So, you're definitely preaching to the choir when you say that free agent pitching isn't a good value. The production you get per dollar spent doesn't justify the the contracts they receive. It's a much more cost effective philosophy to focus on acquiring pitchers who has less than 6 years of service time, when the production per dollar spent ratio is far more attractive.

As for Kyle Lohse, he made $3.95M in 2006. And, despite some atrocious seasons in the past, he has yet to lose an arbitration hearing. So, if the Reds want to bring him back, it seems very likely that he'll cost at least $4M. I think he'll get at least that in arbitration, so I see no reason for him to sign a contract that would result in a pay cut. Personally, I don't think he's worth it, but given that we gave up Zach Ward to get him, I'd be very surprised if we don't bring him back.

Anyway, just my $.02.

TeamSelig
10-25-2006, 05:56 PM
Lohse has very poor trade value IMO

mth123
10-25-2006, 08:34 PM
I think a 44 year old getting two guaranteed years says something about the market. That basically says they are willing to go $10 Million for this year because next year he will likely be nothing. He didn't pitch well in Seattle and was helped by the park.

11BarryLarkin11
10-26-2006, 07:46 PM
I think a 44 year old getting two guaranteed years says something about the market. That basically says they are willing to go $10 Million for this year because next year he will likely be nothing. He didn't pitch well in Seattle and was helped by the park.

I agree that he was aided by Safeco, but Moyer is still a solid pitcher. He's thrown 200+ innings in 8 of the past 9 seasons and for Philly last year he had a 4.03 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 51.1 innings. So, despite his age, I don't see any evidence of him slowing down. I'd be very surprised if the Phillies weren't counting on solid production out of Moyer in both 2007 and 2008. And, I think he can give it to them.

Natty Redlocks
10-26-2006, 08:03 PM
Does anyone else think words like "overpriced" and "overpay" are...well, overused?

If you're paying what you have to pay to get something, you're not overpaying. It's only "overpaying" if you could have gotten it cheaper.

Sorry, just a little peeve I have.

mth123
10-26-2006, 08:15 PM
I agree that he was aided by Safeco, but Moyer is still a solid pitcher. He's thrown 200+ innings in 8 of the past 9 seasons and for Philly last year he had a 4.03 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 51.1 innings. So, despite his age, I don't see any evidence of him slowing down. I'd be very surprised if the Phillies weren't counting on solid production out of Moyer in both 2007 and 2008. And, I think he can give it to them.

I just think that a garanteed $10.5 Million to A guy that will be 46 when the second year starts speaks volumes. I think it says, "I'll pay you this much to not retire, because if I have to go on the market to sign a comparable guy it will cost a lot more." Remember, Moyer is not a free agent. A comparable free agent might cost 50% more just because others will be bidding too. Then you have to factor in the premium you would pay a younger guy. That makes this contract comparable to about $8-9 Million per year to a regular guy on the Market IMO. And Moyer in his prime would only be about the 7th or 8th best guy this year.

blumj
10-27-2006, 10:22 AM
The Red Sox gave Mike Timlin $2.8 million for next year, he'll be 41. If these are indications of the pre-competition market, it's a little scary. Anyone who had thoughts of Ted Lilly for $5-6million a year or Justin Speier for $2-3 million a year, might have to think again.