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RedLegSuperStar
10-24-2006, 05:06 PM
2007 Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are next up on our 2007 Team Outlooks.

Wayne Krivsky's contract obligations as he remakes the Reds in the Twins' image:

C - David Ross - $0.5MM
C - Javier Valentin - $1.25MM
C - Jason LaRue - $5.2MM
1B - Scott Hatteberg - $1.5MM
2B - Brandon Phillips - $0.33MM
SS -
3B - Edwin Encarnacion - $0.3325MM
IF - Juan Castro - $0.925MM
LF - Adam Dunn - $10.5MM
CF - Ken Griffey Jr. - $6MM (another $6.5MM is deferred)
RF - Ryan Freel - $1.7MM
OF - Chris Denorfia - $0.327MM

SP - Aaron Harang - $2.35MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $3.8MM
SP - Kyle Lohse - $4MM
SP - Eric Milton - $9MM
SP - Elizardo Ramirez - $0.33MM
SP - Homer Bailey - $0.33MM

RP - Rheal Cormier - $2.25MM
RP - Gary Majewski - $0.352MM
RP - Matt Belisle - $0.3435MM
RP - Todd Coffey - $0.339MM
RP - Bill Bray - $0.33MM
RP - Brian Shackelford - $0.33MM
RP - Jason Standridge - $0.33MM

Buyouts:

SP - Paul Wilson - $0.85MM
IF - Rich Aurilia - $0.2MM

Injured:

SP - Brandon Claussen - $0.37MM (shoulder surgery August 2006)

I have the Reds at about $54-56MM depending on arbitration raises. They entered 2006 with a $61MM payroll. So, not that much to play with unless bigger salaries like Dunn or LaRue are unloaded.

On the catching situation: LaRue just had an awful year, basically becoming Aaron Harang's personal catcher and nothing more. He's being paid like a #1, and would like to regain his job or be traded. If the Reds eat some salary maybe the Phillies would have interest. Ross posted some surprising career bests in 250 ABs; it probably can't hold up over another 400. He's only got three years of service time so the Reds should have his rights for a while.

With a heavy dose of right-handed pitching, Hatteberg bounced back with an .826 OPS. He'll keep the seat warm for a good price until Joey Votto is ready. Votto is one of the game's very best 1B prospects. Hatteberg seems to be Krivsky's only acknowledgement of the importance of OBP.

Phillips certainly looks like a capable 2B and a great find by Krivsky. There's been some talk of using him at shortstop; he played the position as recently as Triple A in 2005. He only got a brief trial there in '06 with the Reds; my feeling is that he'll remain at second and the team will import a shortstop.

Let's just hope that Castro doesn't spend too much time as the starting SS. Interestingly, the Reds asked about Miguel Tejada in July. For Tejada to fit in the payroll, I think Adam Dunn would have to be involved. I haven't heard any specific names, but some other options at short include Julio Lugo, Jack Wilson, Alex Cintron, and Alex Gonzalez. It might've been nice to have Felipe Lopez around.

Encarnacion looks like a future star at 3B, and Rich Aurilia probably won't be around to take any starts over there. Aurilia isn't much of a starting SS, so he'll probably price himself too high for the Reds to keep him as a backup.

The outfield is pretty well set, with Denorfia finding plenty of work when Griffey is hurt. Jerry Narron would prefer to move Freel around and play him four days a week, so Denorfia can find PT in right as well.

The front of the rotation looks solid, with Arroyo and Harang placing #1 and #3 in innings pitched in all of baseball. 40% of the time, those guys will take a load off a weak bullpen. Lohse wasn't awful as a Red, showing decent command. You'd rather have him as your fourth starter, but that's life. The Reds only have endure one more year of the Milton Mistake.

Ideally the Reds can work in superprospect Homer Bailey in place of the worst of Lohse, Milton, or Ramirez. Until that's sorted out a bullpen intro to the bigs wouldn't be a horrible idea. Last year's 138 pro innings was a career high for the 20 year-old phenom. If he can keep the walks down, Bailey should be very tough to score upon even as a rookie.

The Reds hope midseason acquisitions Majewski and Bray are healthy and effective in '07. If so, it has the potential to be a decent 'pen. The Reds are still lacking that one shutdown reliever to use in the ninth inning, however. There's nothing on the closer market, so the Reds will have to hope someone can step up.

Cincinnati has a middle-of-the-pack offense right now. A full season without Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez plus a possible trade of Dunn could weaken it even further. The pitching looks mediocre as well, especially factoring in some regression for Arroyo. The Reds are not a bad team, but they would probably need one more good starter, an impact hitter, and a bullpen ace to be favored in the division in 2007.

Instead of trying to compete in 2007, the Reds might be better off shooting for '08. Votto, Bailey, and other prospects will have had time to develop. Encarnacion could be a star. Milton and LaRue will be off the books. The 2008 club could be a few wise expenditures away from contention.

vaticanplum
10-24-2006, 05:21 PM
SP - Aaron Harang - $2.35MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $3.8MM
SP - Kyle Lohse - $4MM
SP - Eric Milton - $9MM
SP - Elizardo Ramirez - $0.33MM
SP - Homer Bailey - $0.33MM
SP - Paul Wilson - $0.85MM

:bang:

Eric Milton is not far from making almost as much as the rest of our starting rotation PUT TOGETHER.

He makes some good points about 2008.

reds44
10-24-2006, 05:25 PM
:bang:

Eric Milton is not far from making almost as much as the rest of our starting rotation PUT TOGETHER.

He makes some good points about 2008.

The good news is that this will be the last year of his contract.

Red Leader
10-24-2006, 05:27 PM
Agree completely. 2008 is the year to shoot for. We'll have bad contracts off the books (LaRue, Milton, Griffey) and our younger prospects (EE, Votto, Bailey) will have experience behind them. Any players that you want around after 2008 better be addressed this offseason, IMO. Give Harang, EE, maybe Phillips those longer deals to keep them here for under market value.

reds44
10-24-2006, 05:31 PM
Agree completely. 2008 is the year to shoot for. We'll have bad contracts off the books (LaRue, Milton, Griffey) and our younger prospects (EE, Votto, Bailey) will have experience behind them. Any players that you want around after 2008 better be addressed this offseason, IMO. Give Harang, EE, maybe Phillips those longer deals to keep them here for under market value.
This is the last year of Griffey's contract?

My God we are going to have alot of money to work with next offseason.

vaticanplum
10-24-2006, 05:34 PM
Isn't Griffey signed through 2008?

Caveat Emperor
10-24-2006, 05:41 PM
SP - Aaron Harang - $2.35MM

This number will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher on opening day -- either with an arbitration win by Harang on the strength of his #1 in Ks and #3 in IP season in the NL or with (knock on wood) a brand-spanking new multi-year deal that keeps him as a centerpiece of the Reds rotation for the next couple years.

I don't throw the word around lightly, but "moronic" would be a good way to describe not tying Harang down for AT LEAST as long as Arroyo is slated to remain in a Reds uniform.

RedLegSuperStar
10-24-2006, 06:01 PM
This number will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher on opening day -- either with an arbitration win by Harang on the strength of his #1 in Ks and #3 in IP season in the NL or with (knock on wood) a brand-spanking new multi-year deal that keeps him as a centerpiece of the Reds rotation for the next couple years.

I don't throw the word around lightly, but "moronic" would be a good way to describe not tying Harang down for AT LEAST as long as Arroyo is slated to remain in a Reds uniform.

Agree totally. No way Harang makes less than 5 million next season. It might not be a bad option to sign him long term. 5 mil. 2007, 6.5 mil. 2008, 8.5 mil. 2009, and club option for 2010 for 11 mil.

Heath
10-24-2006, 06:19 PM
There are some posters around here that would find out that not competing in 2007 will make them jump the bridge.

I would also think that in 2007 that if the Reds slide back, there's gonna be a managerial change.

redsrule2500
10-24-2006, 06:33 PM
2008? Stupid.

BrooklynRedz
10-24-2006, 06:36 PM
I have the Reds at about $54-56MM depending on arbitration raises. They entered 2006 with a $61MM payroll. So, not that much to play with unless bigger salaries like Dunn or LaRue are unloaded.



This is completely false. The club will have roughly $15-25mil to spend this offseason with the new tv contract and MLBAM profits.

Heath
10-24-2006, 06:37 PM
2008? Stupid.

Thanks as always for your candid, careful analysis. Care to elaborate?

redsrule2500
10-24-2006, 06:47 PM
We haven't competed for over 6 years already, a new profit is coming to the club, we came off a year in which we weree CLOSE to competing.

If we don't compete now, narron will be fired and other changes will occur, contracts will end. It just doesn't make sense in my opinion.

BrooklynRedz
10-24-2006, 06:57 PM
We haven't competed for over 6 years already, a new profit is coming to the club, we came off a year in which we weree CLOSE to competing.

If we don't compete now, narron will be fired and other changes will occur, contracts will end. It just doesn't make sense in my opinion.

I thought we competed until the next-to-last day of the season. No?

redsrule2500
10-25-2006, 02:29 AM
I thought we competed until the next-to-last day of the season. No?

even better! :beerme:

GAC
10-25-2006, 05:08 AM
Isn't Griffey signed through 2008?

He is signed through 2008 with a team option for '09 (4 Mil buyout).

redsmetz
10-25-2006, 08:39 AM
Just a drop in the bucket, but they've got Aurilia's buyout at 200 Grand, but according to Cot's it's only that amount if he had 450 AB's - he fell ten short, so his buyout will only be 100 Thousand. Also, I don't know how that works on mutual options, but does the buyout only apply if the Reds don't exercise the option on their part? What happens if the Reds excercise the option but Aurilia doesn't? How can they be on the hook for a buyout if he doesn't do the option? I'm guessing the buyout only applies if the team doesn't exercise the option, but I could be wrong.

RedLegSuperStar
10-25-2006, 09:02 AM
say we only have 15 million to spend this offseason and we can't move any big contracts... heres what i'd do:

Sign either Adam Eaton, Randy Wolf, or Ted Lilly. Sign Jose Cruz Jr. for defense. Yes we have Freel and Denorfia. But if Freel moves to second then we will need that 4th OF'r. Resign Scott Schoeneweis and make him the closer. That should be around 9-10 million. That gives us another 5-6 million to lock up Harang, Lohse, and Ross.

That covers our need for a #3 starter, 2nd base, 4th OF'r, and closer.

registerthis
10-25-2006, 09:44 AM
I thought we competed until the next-to-last day of the season. No?

No, we didn't. We weren't competing, the Cards and Stros were merely sucking and playing down to the Reds level. Finishing the season under .500 isn't competing for anything. Had this been a normal season (one in which the division winner was more than a few games above .500) the Reds would have easily finished 15-20 games out of it and no one would be talking about how competitive we were. The Reds finished right abotu where they should have--the Cards finished well below where they should have.

As to competing in 2007, it's just starting to sound like a broken record to me. Every year I seem to be reading that this coming year is not our year, and that the Reds would be better served aiming for the following season. One of these seasons, Reds management might actually play a full season with the AIM of competing the following year, and will construct the team as such. But that hasn't happened yet. A lot of blame lies at DanO for that, but contract extensions to the likes of Castro and Cormier make me question what Krivsky's MO is as well.

Besides, it's just tremendously demoralizing to the fan base to essentially come out and say that the Reds aren't going to compete NEXT year. Does that mean I shouldn't be paying attention next year, then? Wake me when it's 2008...

Red Leader
10-25-2006, 09:48 AM
He is signed through 2008 with a team option for '09 (4 Mil buyout).

Thanks GAC, I apologize for any confusion my post caused.

Krusty
10-25-2006, 10:08 AM
Is it too unrealistic to think that Krivsky will try to move both Dunn and Griffey while restructuring the ballclub and creating payroll space?

BrooklynRedz
10-25-2006, 10:12 AM
No, we didn't. We weren't competing, the Cards and Stros were merely sucking and playing down to the Reds level. Finishing the season under .500 isn't competing for anything. Had this been a normal season (one in which the division winner was more than a few games above .500) the Reds would have easily finished 15-20 games out of it and no one would be talking about how competitive we were.

If if if ... if Griffey wasn't injured, if Dunn hadn't gone on vacation during September. The season was what is was. The Reds finished where they finished and were in the running for the division until the last Saturday in the season.


Besides, it's just tremendously demoralizing to the fan base to essentially come out and say that the Reds aren't going to compete NEXT year. Does that mean I shouldn't be paying attention next year, then? Wake me when it's 2008...

Who came out and said the Reds aren't going to compete next year? Someone on Redszone?

Red Leader
10-25-2006, 10:34 AM
Is it too unrealistic to think that Krivsky will try to move both Dunn and Griffey while restructuring the ballclub and creating payroll space?

It's not unrealistic to think that he'll try to do that, it's pretty unrealistic to think he'll be successful in doing so, though.

registerthis
10-25-2006, 10:53 AM
If if if ... if Griffey wasn't injured, if Dunn hadn't gone on vacation during September. The season was what is was. The Reds finished where they finished and were in the running for the division until the last Saturday in the season.

I'm just saying not to confuse other teams playing poorly and allowing the Reds to stay mathematically in the race with the Reds actually being a competitive team. Griffey could have been as healthy as he could be, and Dunn could have kept right on slugging, and the Reds at best would have finished a couple of games over .500. That's an improvement, but in any other year wouldn't have been remotely competitive in the Central.


Who came out and said the Reds aren't going to compete next year? Someone on Redszone?

I was referring to the article that said the Reds shouldn't focus on competing in 2007.

Spring~Fields
10-25-2006, 01:08 PM
Is it too unrealistic to think that Krivsky will try to move both Dunn and Griffey while restructuring the ballclub and creating payroll space?

I have always seen the Junior contract vs. injury history as an impossible situation. But, is there any chance that a team would be interested in taking Junior if the Reds paid a portion of his remaining salary? Would Junior be amenable to going to a team that he might see as having a better chance at a WS and continuing his career pursuits?

RedLegSuperStar
10-25-2006, 04:27 PM
I have always seen the Junior contract vs. injury history as an impossible situation. But, is there any chance that a team would be interested in taking Junior if the Reds paid a portion of his remaining salary? Would Junior be amenable to going to a team that he might see as having a better chance at a WS and continuing his career pursuits?

Well in 05 he said he would of agreed to go to the White Sox. So i'm sure the possiblity is out there. It's just a lot of defered money and also the 10/5 clause that Junior has.

mth123
10-25-2006, 09:00 PM
say we only have 15 million to spend this offseason and we can't move any big contracts... heres what i'd do:

Sign either Adam Eaton, Randy Wolf, or Ted Lilly. Sign Jose Cruz Jr. for defense. Yes we have Freel and Denorfia. But if Freel moves to second then we will need that 4th OF'r. Resign Scott Schoeneweis and make him the closer. That should be around 9-10 million. That gives us another 5-6 million to lock up Harang, Lohse, and Ross.

That covers our need for a #3 starter, 2nd base, 4th OF'r, and closer.

$9 or $10 million won't get Lilly by himself.

Highlifeman21
10-25-2006, 09:10 PM
There are some posters around here that would find out that not competing in 2007 will make them jump the bridge.

I would also think that in 2007 that if the Reds slide back, there's gonna be a managerial change.

We can only hope.

Jerry Narron is the first piece to trigger the Rube Goldberg. Set that in motion, and look how this team could flourish.

WMR
10-25-2006, 09:28 PM
LOL I can't believe Eric Milton will make nine freaking million dollars to be his pathetically bad self next year while functioning as a human stick of dynamite every five days. My hatred of DanO has not lessened with the passage of time.

redsrule2500
10-26-2006, 01:26 AM
LOL I can't believe Eric Milton will make nine freaking million dollars to be his pathetically bad self next year while functioning as a human stick of dynamite every five days. My hatred of DanO has not lessened with the passage of time.

He's not that bad, a solid 4/5 starter.

WMR
10-26-2006, 02:04 AM
He's not that bad, a solid 4/5 starter.

Whoever has the stats detailing just how bad Milton has been during his tenure with the Reds, please post them.

WVRedsFan
10-26-2006, 02:20 AM
There are some posters around here that would find out that not competing in 2007 will make them jump the bridge.

I would also think that in 2007 that if the Reds slide back, there's gonna be a managerial change.

Now, that opened my eyes at 2:20 AM.

Pray.

harangatang
10-26-2006, 02:44 AM
If we don't compete now, narron will be fired and other changes will occur, contracts will end. It just doesn't make sense in my opinion.I hope your right about Narron, because even if the Reds make huge improvements (like sign Barry Zito) they have a lot of ground to make up. Let's not forget the Reds Pythagorean W-L puts them at 76-86 for 2006 with a run differential of around -50. A 10 game improvement would put them at .500 which may be a stretch especially if Krivsky keeps fillling the offense with "guys who know how to play the game" (Juan Castro, etc.).

remdog
10-26-2006, 07:15 AM
My biggest fear about the '06 season was that the Reds (and many of their fans) would think that they were a competitive team. They weren't! It was a mirage and it's apparent some of the fans have bought into it---let's hope management hasn't but I'm not holding my breath.

This team has a ton of work to do to become competitive and another half ton to reach challenger status. Specific items have been detailed in most posts on this board---pick a thread.

Castellini missed his chance by passing on Sweet Lou. Giving Narron an extention was like passing gas in VW Bug packed with six car poolers and it still stinks! If Lou was willing to work next season it should of have been for the Reds and Jerry should been given a summer vacation.

For all their talk the Castellini group still has to show me something to back it up.

Rem

GAC
10-26-2006, 07:53 AM
He's not that bad, a solid 4/5 starter.

Worth 9 Mil though?

Krusty
10-26-2006, 09:13 AM
I think the Reds can move Griffey if they agree to pay the remaining defered portion of his contract. At 6 million, Griffey would be a reasonable DH for an AL team.

Any trade involving Dunn would probably require a team reworking his contract which would extend it beyond the 2007 season. But if the Reds trade Dunn, they would have to get a hitter in return along with pitching.

Trading Milton and LaRue will be almost impossible unless the Reds eat the majority of their contracts. With that said, the Reds would probably be better off carrying them on the roster and let them leave as free agents after the 2007 season.

Highlifeman21
10-26-2006, 11:15 AM
$9 or $10 million won't get Lilly by himself.

Ted Lilly is not worth $9M or $10M.

While he might be a solution at #3 or #4, that solution shouldn't cost $9M or $10M.

I'm still looking for an answer as to why all the manlove for Ted Lilly.

blumj
10-26-2006, 11:28 AM
I think a lot of people are operating under the assumption that Lilly will be an under-the-radar, relatively inexpensive signing. I doubt it.

SteelSD
10-26-2006, 11:48 AM
Whoever has the stats detailing just how bad Milton has been during his tenure with the Reds, please post them.

2004: .810 OPSA
2005: .890 OPSA
2006: .794 OPSA

So far, I can find only three MLB SP over those three years who posted OPSA numbers at, or above, .793 each season: Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, and Kyle Lohse. The latter two pitchers have done it four years in a row.

It's like the Reds collect "suck".

Red Leader
10-26-2006, 11:53 AM
2004: .810 OPSA
2005: .890 OPSA
2006: .794 OPSA

So far, I can find only three MLB SP over those three years who posted OPSA numbers at, or above, .793 each season: Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, and Kyle Lohse. The latter two pitchers have done it four years in a row.

It's like the Reds collect "suck".

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

It's funny, in reading your post as soon as you said the above, I knew the names that folllowed would either be current or former Reds' pitchers.

Not funny as in "ha ha." Funny as in, I don't know, "I just slipped on a banana peel and landed on a pick axe," funny, maybe.

SteelSD
10-26-2006, 12:05 PM
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

It's funny, in reading your post as soon as you said the above, I knew the names that folllowed would either be current or former Reds' pitchers.

Not funny as in "ha ha." Funny as in, I don't know, "I just slipped on a banana peel and landed on a pick axe," funny, maybe.

Yep, funny like a shotgun blast to the head.

Over the past three seasons, only ONE MLB team has posted an OPS at, or above, .793 each season. Basically, the Reds collect pitchers who turn opposing offenses into the New York Yankees every fifth day.

Red Leader
10-26-2006, 12:09 PM
Yep, funny like a shotgun blast to the head.

Over the past three seasons, only ONE MLB team has posted an OPS at, or above, .793 each season. Basically, the Reds collect pitchers who turn opposing offenses into the New York Yankees every fifth day.

Well, in 2005 (Milton / Ortiz) it was 2 out of every 5 days. :laugh:

Nice work. Seriously, that almost takes talent to pull off.

SteelSD
10-26-2006, 12:17 PM
Well, in 2005 (Milton / Ortiz) it was 2 out of every 5 days. :laugh:

Nice work. Seriously, that almost takes talent to pull off.

Yep. And I didn't even put Joe Mays on the list.

Cyclone792
10-26-2006, 12:25 PM
Yep, funny like a shotgun blast to the head.

Over the past three seasons, only ONE MLB team has posted an OPS at, or above, .793 each season. Basically, the Reds collect pitchers who turn opposing offenses into the New York Yankees every fifth day.

What makes it even funnier - and worse - is that both Milton and Lohse are slotted to be in the rotation next season unless some major/unlikely changes are made.

From 2005-07, the Reds will have paid ~$35 million for what's likely over 900 worthless innings of Ortiz, Milton and Lohse. Imagine what could be done with $35 million over a span of only three seasons. Instead, this organization has elected to give it to a group of pitchers that do a great job of giving up runs in buckets and losing games.

And people wonder why this team has been awful. It's absolutely ridiculous.

registerthis
10-26-2006, 12:49 PM
2004: .810 OPSA
2005: .890 OPSA
2006: .794 OPSA

So far, I can find only three MLB SP over those three years who posted OPSA numbers at, or above, .793 each season: Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, and Kyle Lohse. The latter two pitchers have done it four years in a row.

It's like the Reds collect "suck".

That's just pitiful.

jimbo
10-26-2006, 01:02 PM
And people wonder why this team has been awful. It's absolutely ridiculous.

And here I thought it was all Dunn's fault. :confused: