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Krusty
10-26-2006, 10:53 AM
It involves the Oakland A's:

Reds trade OF Adam Dunn, infielder Rey Olmedo and LHP Brian Shackelford to Oakland for RHP Justin Duchscherer, shortstop Bobby Crosby and OF Bobby Kielty.

The Reds would get a closer in Duchscherer and allow the Reds to sign Guardado to an incentitive deal with the hope he would be ready in August or September.

Even though he has been racked with injuries the past two seasons, Crosby is still relatively young and is the athletic type of shortstop the Reds could be looking for.

Kielty is added to the outfield mix and could wind up being the RF with Griffey shifting to LF and Denorfia/Freel playing CF.

Olmedo and Shackelford are throw-ins to the deal but could bolster the A's depth on the bench and in the bullpen.

Plus, the money free up could be used to pursue a free agent starter or bolster the bench.

Opinions?

SultanOfSwing
10-26-2006, 10:55 AM
Not bad, really very good. However, I would personally want SP in return for Dunn.

As I look more at the stats, etc., it definitely appears Duch would be the centerpiece. He is very good and appears to have closer stuff (almost 1 K/9 IP), but he doesn't throw very hard and his mentality has been questioned. But I like him a lot.

Crosby worries me. People complain about Dunn's BA, they would freak about Crosby's (.244 lifetime, .229 in 2006). And Crosby doesn't walk anywhere near as much as Dunn. (.298 OBP in 2006) He strikes out a lot. His best features are his defense and power. He has hit 22 HRs (in 2004 along with 64 RBIs), but hasn't shown that same caliber of power again. His defense is solid, but not spectacular. And there is the injury factor. :( I like him, but I don't know if he is worth the value of Dunn.

Kielty looks like a throw-in journeyman that likely will never amount to much. He plays solid defense but his offense is better suited to 6-8 hole. And he is 30 years old.

All that being said, I believe this is a similar deal to what we may see for Dunn. It fills multiple holes. None of the players are sexy or spectacular, but solid. Very nice work. :)

mound_patrol
10-26-2006, 10:58 AM
I like the Duch and Crosby aspects of it. But Kielty does not impress me at all.
I also don't see the A's being all that interested in Dunn, but could be wrong there.

Krusty
10-26-2006, 11:00 AM
I like the Duch and Crosby aspects of it. But Kielty does not impress me at all

Kielty came up through the Twins farm system. Krivsky is familiar with him and could be the type of outfielder he looks for......one that makes contact and doesn't strike out as much.

SultanOfSwing
10-26-2006, 11:02 AM
I also don't see the A's being all that interested in Dunn, but could be wrong there.
Adam Dunn is like a Billy Beane wet dream. If any GM in baseball really appreciates Dunn's value, it would be Beane. That said, Beane may not have any interest any trading for that type of player, IDK.

mound_patrol
10-26-2006, 11:04 AM
I'm just assuming that Beane wouldn't want Dunn because he wouldn't want to take on his contract and what he would demand once free agency hit.

mound_patrol
10-26-2006, 11:08 AM
Kielty came up through the Twins farm system. Krivsky is familiar with him and could be the type of outfielder he looks for......one that makes contact and doesn't strike out as much.

Why trade for Kielty when you could just sign a player like Jay Payton with similar abilities. Other than the fact he's an ex-Twin

Krusty
10-26-2006, 11:10 AM
Or you could just make the deal Dunn for Crosby and Duchscherer.

mound_patrol
10-26-2006, 11:16 AM
Or add another younger arm like Gaudin, saarloos, or a prospect

SultanOfSwing
10-26-2006, 11:27 AM
Personally, I would try to expand this for more players (like a SP). Any P in the minors not named Bailey could be used to enhance the Reds side (Wood, Cueto, Pelland, etc.). Throw in Cormier or another RP or a C. Pursue Haren or Blanton, Kennedy, maybe Saarloos (or, gasp, Harden-would likely require Bailey though). Or replace Duch with Calero as he would be cheaper

westofyou
10-26-2006, 11:28 AM
Bobby Crosby is a man who makes his living bending down, unfortunatley for Bobby he's also a man who has had a bad back problem all season and and thus has problems bending down.

If you want to see a horrible tailspin then trade Dunn for a guy that might miss 40% of the games next season or have to retire early because of back issues. If you want to hear some screaming from the fans after they have no offense or a SS just tell them that they also got a middle reliever in that deal.

Johnny Footstool
10-26-2006, 12:04 PM
If you want to hear some screaming from the fans after they have no offense or a SS just tell them that they also got a middle reliever in that deal.

Duchscherer is a late-inning setup man, and a very good one. He would close for the Reds and for about half the teams in MLB.

westofyou
10-26-2006, 12:14 PM
Duchscherer is a late-inning setup man, and a very good one. He would close for the Reds and for about half the teams in MLB.

I know who he is, and I ride him in my Strat League, but not as a closer.

However he ain't the guy for me that would swing that deal.

Shaggy Sanchez
10-26-2006, 12:27 PM
Duchscherer is a late-inning setup man, and a very good one. He would close for the Reds and for about half the teams in MLB.

The only problem is with only two starting pitchers that are any good and no offense after we move Dunn exactly how many games will we need him to close?

Highlifeman21
10-26-2006, 12:32 PM
It involves the Oakland A's:

Reds trade OF Adam Dunn, infielder Rey Olmedo and LHP Brian Shackelford to Oakland for RHP Justin Duchscherer, shortstop Bobby Crosby and OF Bobby Kielty.

The Reds would get a closer in Duchscherer and allow the Reds to sign Guardado to an incentitive deal with the hope he would be ready in August or September.

Even though he has been racked with injuries the past two seasons, Crosby is still relatively young and is the athletic type of shortstop the Reds could be looking for.

Kielty is added to the outfield mix and could wind up being the RF with Griffey shifting to LF and Denorfia/Freel playing CF.

Olmedo and Shackelford are throw-ins to the deal but could bolster the A's depth on the bench and in the bullpen.

Plus, the money free up could be used to pursue a free agent starter or bolster the bench.

Opinions?

So lemme get this straight....


Starting LF (and bulk of our offensive production), AAAA IF, LOOGY for Setup man, starting SS, 4th OF option for most teams.


Crosby is an interesting option at SS, but is too often injured, which means we'll be seeing someone else patrol SS (and most likely poorly). Kielty unfortunately would have to replace Dunn, which between Crosby and Kielty would not make up the offensive production lost by Dunn.

As for Duchscherer, he's definitely a valid option for closer, and filled in nicely when Street was on the DL for Oakland, but can he sustain success over a full season in that role?

I'm not sure I really follow the math and or logic of freeing up Dunn's contract to go out and buy FA pitching which may not be available. Banking on FA pitching I just think is too much of a risk, due to having to overpay to get what we desperately need.

It's certainly an idea though.

ED44
10-26-2006, 12:35 PM
I like the possibilities with the Tigers. They have starting pitching depth, a potential dominant closer in Zumaya, and an OF with really no place to play in Marcus Thames. If they were looking for a power hitting lefty this offseason, I would see what they would give in return...IF Dunn is going to be traded anyway.

Johnny Footstool
10-26-2006, 12:53 PM
The only problem is with only two starting pitchers that are any good and no offense after we move Dunn exactly how many games will we need him to close?

I'm not saying it's a good deal. I'm just saying Duchscherer would be a great guy to target in a deal.

I'd trade Dunn plus cash and a prospect not named Votto or Bailey for Swisher and Duchscherer, but I seriously doubt Oakland would do that deal.

SultanOfSwing
10-26-2006, 01:15 PM
I'm not saying it's a good deal. I'm just saying Duchscherer would be a great guy to target in a deal.

I'd trade Dunn plus cash and a prospect not named Votto or Bailey for Swisher and Duchscherer, but I seriously doubt Oakland would do that deal.
Swisher is Adam Dunn with less power. Why would the Reds want him?

westofyou
10-26-2006, 01:19 PM
Swisher is Adam Dunn with less power. Why would the Reds want him?

Because he's not being paid a bunch of money and he can avoid outs?

But tha's why the A's will keep him instead of chasing a power guy getting paid already.

SultanOfSwing
10-26-2006, 01:34 PM
Because he's not being paid a bunch of money and he can avoid outs?

But tha's why the A's will keep him instead of chasing a power guy getting paid already.
I understand the salary, but I don't agree with your other assumption.

Swisher is only 1 year younger, but has 3 years less experience than Dunn.
BA: .246 lifetime (Swisher) .245 lifetime (Dunn)
OBP: .350 lifetime (Swisher) .380 lifetime (Dunn)
Swisher grounds into nearly twice as many DP as Dunn.

I just think the Reds need to pursue SP and a closer rather than that type of offensive replacement. The defense is a wash. Dunn is better offensively (much better, IMO). Dunn is more proven and has much better power. The only advantages I see are salary and Swisher's switch-hitting.

IMO, that deal doesn't help the Reds. I seriously think Oakland would snap that deal up in a heartbeat for Dunn alone. Then you throw in cash and a prospect! I don't like it.

Johnny Footstool
10-26-2006, 01:35 PM
Because he's not being paid a bunch of money and he can avoid outs?

But tha's why the A's will keep him instead of chasing a power guy getting paid already.

Exactly and exactly.

Plus Swisher isn't even arbitration eligible yet.

The Reds would have to give up cash and a prospect in the deal, and I doubt they have anyone in the system aside from Votto or Bailey who would interest the A's.


I understand the salary, but I don't agree with your other assumption.

Swisher is only 1 year younger, but has 3 years less experience than Dunn.
BA: .246 lifetime (Swisher) .245 lifetime (Dunn)
OBP: .350 lifetime (Swisher) .380 lifetime (Dunn)
Swisher grounds into nearly twice as many DP as Dunn.

I just think the Reds need to pursue SP and a closer rather than that type of offensive replacement. The defense is a wash. Dunn is better offensively (much better, IMO). Dunn is more proven and has much better power. The only advantages I see are salary and Swisher's switch-hitting.

IMO, that deal doesn't help the Reds. I seriously think Oakland would snap that deal up in a heartbeat for Dunn alone. Then you throw in cash and a prospect! I don't like it.

Swisher's major league career consists of one bad year and one better year. He's a downgrade from Dunn, but not that much -- he still has mad OB skills and developing power. The Reds won't find a offensive replacement for Dunn who is as cheap or as comparable.

IMO, this deal would fill one gaping hole (closer), mostly fill the hole left from trading Dunn, and the Reds could then use the cash savings to fill more holes. And there are plenty of holes to fill.

SultanOfSwing
10-26-2006, 01:39 PM
Exactly and exactly.

Plus Swisher isn't even arbitration eligible yet.

The Reds would have to give up cash and a prospect in the deal, and I doubt they have anyone in the system aside from Votto or Bailey who would interest the A's.
How does Swisher avoid outs better than Dunn?!!!

Johnny Footstool
10-26-2006, 01:44 PM
How does Swisher avoid outs better than Dunn?!!!

When did I say he did?

SultanOfSwing
10-26-2006, 01:58 PM
I thought you did when you agreed with WOY. I understand the idea of Swisher, but I think the Reds shouldn't have to give up so much (cash and prospects) to get him, or they should receive more in return (like a SP and Calero, instead of Duch). Just my opinion.

Johnny Footstool
10-26-2006, 04:02 PM
I thought you did when you agreed with WOY. I understand the idea of Swisher, but I think the Reds shouldn't have to give up so much (cash and prospects) to get him, or they should receive more in return (like a SP and Calero, instead of Duch). Just my opinion.

Nah. I simply agreed that Swisher has excellent OB skills -- way better than expensive guys like Carlos Lee. His skills don't match Dunn's, though.

Krusty
10-26-2006, 08:02 PM
Bobby Crosby is a man who makes his living bending down, unfortunatley for Bobby he's also a man who has had a bad back problem all season and and thus has problems bending down.

If you want to see a horrible tailspin then trade Dunn for a guy that might miss 40% of the games next season or have to retire early because of back issues. If you want to hear some screaming from the fans after they have no offense or a SS just tell them that they also got a middle reliever in that deal.


Good point WOY. I forgot about Crosby's back problems.

Krusty
10-26-2006, 08:08 PM
Another Adam Dunn trade idea:

Dunn, Olmedo and Shackelford to the Cubs for shortstop Ronnie Cedeno, OF Matt Murton and LHP Rich Hill.

Patrick Bateman
10-26-2006, 08:16 PM
Another Adam Dunn trade idea:

Dunn, Olmedo and Shackelford to the Cubs for shortstop Ronnie Cedeno, OF Matt Murton and LHP Rich Hill.

Sorry, Krusty, but I really, really, really hate that deal.

Cedeno was absolutely putrid with the bat this year, and Murton is a fringe starter.

The only guy who provides any real excitement is Hill, but if I trade Dunn, it's not for a deal centred around Rich Hill.

Krusty
10-26-2006, 11:14 PM
Sorry, Krusty, but I really, really, really hate that deal.

Cedeno was absolutely putrid with the bat this year, and Murton is a fringe starter.

The only guy who provides any real excitement is Hill, but if I trade Dunn, it's not for a deal centred around Rich Hill.


I really like Murton and Cedeno. I think they have high ceilings. This was their first full seasons in the majors. Cedeno has excellent range and even though he made 25 errors, you can expect them to decrease as he gains more experience.

I would like to revise this deal:

Dunn and Coffey to the Cubs for Murton, Cedeno and Howry.

Howry would be the closer for the Reds. Cedeno takes over at shortstop and Murton goes to RF.

My only question is if Krivsky wants a veteran shortstop to play next to Encarncion?

Patrick Bateman
10-26-2006, 11:55 PM
I really like Murton and Cedeno. I think they have high ceilings. This was their first full seasons in the majors. Cedeno has excellent range and even though he made 25 errors, you can expect them to decrease as he gains more experience.

I would like to revise this deal:

Dunn and Coffey to the Cubs for Murton, Cedeno and Howry.

Howry would be the closer for the Reds. Cedeno takes over at shortstop and Murton goes to RF.

My only question is if Krivsky wants a veteran shortstop to play next to Encarncion?

I guess I have pretty opposite feelings.

I don't see Cedeno being much of a hitter. His fielding may give him a couple of decent seasons, but I don't think he will ever be anything much more than a Cesar Izturis. Murton's okay, but I don't see him projecting to be much better than his current level of play.

And I definitely wouldn't add in Coffey to make up the difference between Howry and Hill. I would rather have Coffey than Howry due to salaries, and the fact that they are similarily talented.

I just don't see us trading Dunn for a package of IMO, mediocre at best players. We need some serious impact potential coming back in this one.

Slyder
10-27-2006, 02:05 AM
I guess I have pretty opposite feelings.

I don't see Cedeno being much of a hitter. His fielding may give him a couple of decent seasons, but I don't think he will ever be anything much more than a Cesar Izturis. Murton's okay, but I don't see him projecting to be much better than his current level of play.

And I definitely wouldn't add in Coffey to make up the difference between Howry and Hill. I would rather have Coffey than Howry due to salaries, and the fact that they are similarily talented.

I just don't see us trading Dunn for a package of IMO, mediocre at best players. We need some serious impact potential coming back in this one.

My opinion on this deal is the same when discussing Houston. We better be getting a potential game changer/kings ransom in return for Dunn. Howry would be nice but not for Dunn. Again b/c its in the division.

lollipopcurve
10-27-2006, 09:05 AM
I just don't see us trading Dunn for a package of IMO, mediocre at best players. We need some serious impact potential coming back in this one.

Agree. Middle relievers and glovemen won't do it.

Krusty
10-27-2006, 10:49 AM
I think you're over valuing Dunn again.

SultanOfSwing
10-27-2006, 10:59 AM
I think you're over valuing Dunn again.
Maybe, but I think the point is the Reds can overvalue Dunn because he is theirs. When other teams want a commodity, you overvalue him. You never try to get equal value, especially in Dunn's case, when they can't really afford to. If the Reds overvalue Dunn, so be it, he is theirs to overvalue not everyone else's to undervalue.

I hope that makes sense. :)

westofyou
10-27-2006, 11:08 AM
I think you're over valuing Dunn again.

And you OTOH undervalue him.

Johnny Footstool
10-27-2006, 11:16 AM
I think you're over valuing Dunn again.

I'd rather overvalue him than sell him short (see Kearns, Austin and Lopez, Felipe).

Yachtzee
10-27-2006, 11:17 AM
It involves the Oakland A's:

Reds trade OF Adam Dunn, infielder Rey Olmedo and LHP Brian Shackelford to Oakland for RHP Justin Duchscherer, shortstop Bobby Crosby and OF Bobby Kielty.

The Reds would get a closer in Duchscherer and allow the Reds to sign Guardado to an incentitive deal with the hope he would be ready in August or September.

Even though he has been racked with injuries the past two seasons, Crosby is still relatively young and is the athletic type of shortstop the Reds could be looking for.

Kielty is added to the outfield mix and could wind up being the RF with Griffey shifting to LF and Denorfia/Freel playing CF.

Olmedo and Shackelford are throw-ins to the deal but could bolster the A's depth on the bench and in the bullpen.

Plus, the money free up could be used to pursue a free agent starter or bolster the bench.

Opinions?

Maybe, but only if Bobby Kielty agrees to dress up as Heat Mizer for the annual Christmas party.

http://www.bat-girl.com/archives/bobby_kielty_hair.jpg

westofyou
10-27-2006, 11:19 AM
Maybe, but only if Bobby Kielty agrees to dress up as Heat Mizer for the annual Christmas party.

http://www.bat-girl.com/archives/bobby_kielty_hair.jpg

He's already done the Burger Clown once

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b358/drmmerchk/ronald%20mcdonald/ronaldmcdonald2.jpg

Johnny Footstool
10-27-2006, 11:25 AM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/d/d8/Heatmiser.png/300px-Heatmiser.png

They call me Heat Miser
Whatever I touch
Melts in my clutch
...
I'm too much.

lollipopcurve
10-27-2006, 11:35 AM
I'm Mr. 101.

Patrick Bateman
10-27-2006, 11:51 AM
I think you're over valuing Dunn again.

I'm not suggesting we trade him for anything less than 2 great starters or something, however, we need someone to come back in this trade that could at least potentially fill the void left by Dunn, and the players we get in this trade combined are not even close.

Dunn's an impact player, you don't trade him for mediocre (at best) players.

Krusty
10-28-2006, 07:31 AM
Would you do this deal:

Dunn to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar?

BEETTLEBUG
10-28-2006, 08:23 AM
Yes Krusty I would make that trade.

mth123
10-28-2006, 08:58 AM
Would you do this deal:

Dunn to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar?

Santana and Aybar are both talents that I would like to see in Cincinnati. I think Aybar could be the SS for the next 10 years on most teams and Santana could be a good mid-rotation starting pitcher. But here is the thing that always makes me say no. Dunn, for all his faults, is a guy you can write it down before the season starts. .380+ OBP, .500+ Slugging %, 40+ HR, 100+ runs scored and 100 or so RBI. There aren't many of those around to create production and even fewer who are 26 or make less than $15 Million per year.

Now Santana and Aybar could turn into good players. Lets say they do, and for sake of argument lets say they become the equivalent of some players we are familiar with. Lets say Santana turns into Jack Billingham and Aybar turns into Dave Concepcion. If they do, I would say that is pretty good fulfillment of their potential. Would you trade a guy who annually puts up the stats shown above for Jack Billingham and Dave Concepcion? I wouldn't.

There is the possibility that Santana and Aybar become Johan Santana and Barry Larkin (although I haven't heard anyone credible say that). If I was sure that was going to happen - I would trade him, sure. But I'm not sure. There is also the possibility that Santana and Aybar could be the next Ben McDonald and Royce Clayton. Prospects that were both more highly touted as sure things than Santana and Aybar. McDonald was going to the next big thing on the mound and Royce Clayton was called the next Barry Larkin. Since there is so much risk of getting nothing, or less than promised players, in return, I just couldn't pull the trigger. Not when I'm giving up such a certain, high level of production.

People say get pitching, get a SS. OF are easier to find. While I agree in general, guys who go .380/.500 with 40 HR, 100 Runs and 100 RBI are not easy to find. Much more difficult to find than a #3 starter and an above average SS. I would have traded Kearns + for those guys, but not Dunn.
The only way possible would be if I could trade Dunn to acquire these players and use the $ savings to buy a replacement that is Dunn's equal. I don't think you can. I don't think you can get those top caliber guys in Cincy that easily and the savings wouldn't be enough to pay them. The Reds should try to keep the one they have. Getting one to come here might be impossible (we tend to forget that most players think of Cincy the same way that we think of KC and Pittsburgh) and developing one may take another several generations. Now if Dunn would make it known that there is no way to keep him beyond his current contract, then its a different circumstance and I would think hard about it, but I'd still want a little more with another year to go.

BTW, on the subject of trading key players for prospects, trades like this are usually salary driven or are cashing in on a player before he is likely to leave anyway. The Marlins made a really good deal that everyone points to. Understand though, that the motivation was to have a $20 Million payroll more than the return they were getting. The fact that the Marlins were able to hit it big with Ramirez and Sanchez for Beckett is not typical.

People win the lottery every week. But even though some one does, wise people still don't put their life savings into buying lottery tickets. They may buy a few with money that is expendable. Adam Dunn is not expendable, and when he is gone he will be hard to replace.

Krusty
10-28-2006, 10:04 AM
Santana won 16 games last year in his second full season. He definitely looks like a pitcher on the rise.

As for Dunn, how much would you miss of his offense? Twenty-three of his 40 home runs were solo shots. With that said, the remaining 17 home runs he had 69 RBIs. Not great numbers for a guy that you're paying to be a RBI machine in your lineup.

So you go out and try to replace Dunn's production with the likes of these players via free agency:

Mike Cameron: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5492

Jermaine Dye: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5610

Jose Guillen:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3592

Now ask yourself would the Reds be better off with Dunn alone OR with Santana, Aybar and one of these three outfielders?

lollipopcurve
10-28-2006, 10:19 AM
Dunn to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar?

Absolutely. And I wouldn't insist on Aybar. If the Angels would rather include Orlando Cabrera or, say, Jeff Mathis, I'd do it. I'd include another Red like Freel or Denorfia, if necessary (likely to be necessary).

I still think the most likely scenario for trading Dunn for a solid return is to get Houston and Texas involved, either directly or in a 3-way, because those teams have a very good chance of getting Dunn to sign a LTC.

mth123
10-28-2006, 10:48 AM
Santana won 16 games last year in his second full season. He definitely looks like a pitcher on the rise.

As for Dunn, how much would you miss of his offense? Twenty-three of his 40 home runs were solo shots. With that said, the remaining 17 home runs he had 69 RBIs. Not great numbers for a guy that you're paying to be a RBI machine in your lineup.

So you go out and try to replace Dunn's production with the likes of these players via free agency:

Mike Cameron: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5492

Jermaine Dye: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5610

Jose Guillen:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3592

Now ask yourself would the Reds be better off with Dunn alone OR with Santana, Aybar and one of these three outfielders?

Your missing the point. Players like Aybar, Santana and Guillen can be acquired w/o trading Adam Dunn. I'll admit Santana might be a little tougher than the others. Santana could be Ramon Ortiz as well, who looked similar in his first couple years. Players like Dunn are not acquired so easily in Cincinnati. Now if I thought the team could realistically plug Dye in, then I would think about it. I don't think they can get those guys in Cincy. Sign Dye or some one like him first, then come to me with a Dunn proposal. I still might not be in favor due to the age difference between Dunn and Dye. Sign Dye and trade him for those guys.

If you really believe that, why wouldn't the Angels just sign Dye and keep Santana and Aybar? I actually think the Angels wouldn't make this trade either. They can attract players and don't need to trade for Dunn. I think they may get Soriano.

Spring~Fields
10-28-2006, 01:23 PM
Would you do this deal:

Dunn to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar?

Yes to obtain a young and rising 16 game winner that has the potential to improve even more. I would go even farther and try to get them to take Larue's salary along with Dunn. With financial resources freed up by the transaction, attempt to sign replacement production in the outfield or other.

TC81190
10-28-2006, 01:45 PM
Not one big enough difference maker to do it. Maybe Duchscherer with a SP, I can dream Harden.

I'd try:
Duchscherer
Santiago Casilla
Travis Buck

I don't know if this is a deal they'd like, so I'll throw it out to you guys.

Highlifeman21
10-28-2006, 01:47 PM
Santana won 16 games last year in his second full season. He definitely looks like a pitcher on the rise.

As for Dunn, how much would you miss of his offense? Twenty-three of his 40 home runs were solo shots. With that said, the remaining 17 home runs he had 69 RBIs. Not great numbers for a guy that you're paying to be a RBI machine in your lineup.

So you go out and try to replace Dunn's production with the likes of these players via free agency:

Mike Cameron: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5492

Jermaine Dye: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5610

Jose Guillen:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3592

Now ask yourself would the Reds be better off with Dunn alone OR with Santana, Aybar and one of these three outfielders?


First of all, we won't get one of those 3 (Cameron, Dye, Guillen). Especially not Dye, and why would we want either Cameron or Guillen?

Honestly, the Reds are better off with Dunn alone, b/c the Angels won't trade us Santana and Aybar in the same deal. Even if they would, which you think they will and suggest to the RZ faithful on a bi-daily basis, I'm still not convinced that one 16 game W season from Santana has determined his fate. Keep Adam Dunn. An offensive talent like that doesn't grow on trees, and we're lucky to have him in our lineup. The offensive sacrifice of trading him would make this team fortunate to score 700 runs in a season. Think about it.

TC81190
10-28-2006, 01:48 PM
Santana and Aybar are both talents that I would like to see in Cincinnati. I think Aybar could be the SS for the next 10 years on most teams and Santana could be a good mid-rotation starting pitcher. But here is the thing that always makes me say no. Dunn, for all his faults, is a guy you can write it down before the season starts. .380+ OBP, .500+ Slugging %, 40+ HR, 100+ runs scored and 100 or so RBI. There aren't many of those around to create production and even fewer who are 26 or make less than $15 Million per year.

Really?

Spring~Fields
10-28-2006, 01:57 PM
b/c the Angels won't trade us Santana and Aybar in the same deal.

I don't think that they would trade quality pitching for offensive production when they can keep their pitching and go out and buy offense through the FA market.

Highlifeman21
10-28-2006, 02:00 PM
I don't think that they would trade quality pitching for offensive production when they can keep their pitching and go out and buy offense through the FA market.


You're right, which is why I said the Angels wouldn't trade us Santana and Aybar in the same deal. I don't think they'd trade us Santana straight up, not that he's really proven much to this point. Barry Bonds will probably end up as the Angels DH next year, so they certainly wouldn't make a trade to acquire Adam Dunn when they can just buy Barry Bonds.

I couldn't agree more.

I just don't get all the manlove right now for Ted Lilly and Ervin Santana. Maybe I'm crazy.

mth123
10-28-2006, 02:10 PM
Really?

Well he didn't in 2006 I'll grant you that, but generally throughout the course of his career, I am betting he will. He did it in 05 and in 04. I guess that is the real difference in the "trade him" versus "keep him" group. Do you think he is going to be the 2006 Adam Dunn or do you think it was a down year? I think it was a down year myself. I can not really predict the future so those who believe otherwise could be right. I see nothing in his skillset or health that suggest he will not bounce back. But that is just me. I think chances of him bouncing back are better than the chances of prospects all working out or luring some other Dunn caliber guy (even the 2006 version) to Cincy.

Highlifeman21
10-28-2006, 02:54 PM
Well he didn't in 2006 I'll grant you that, but generally throughout the course of his career, I am betting he will. He did it in 05 and in 04. I guess that is the real difference in the "trade him" versus "keep him" group. Do you think he is going to be the 2006 Adam Dunn or do you think it was a down year? I think it was a down year myself. I can not really predict the future so those who believe otherwise could be right. I see nothing in his skillset or health that suggest he will not bounce back. But that is just me. I think chances of him bouncing back are better than the chances of prospects all working out or luring some other Dunn caliber guy (even the 2006 version) to Cincy.

The 2006 version of Dunn still led our team in OWS, so clearly even though it was "down" for him, no one had a better year offensively.

Conversely, Arroyo led the team in PWS, and do we really think we can find another 20+ PWS arm to go with Arroyo and Harang?

Spring~Fields
10-28-2006, 03:17 PM
I just don't get all the manlove right now for Ted Lilly and Ervin Santana. Maybe I'm crazy.

As for me, I am just a desperate fan hoping that the Reds can pick up some good additional starting pitching that can put them in the win column more often. But, they do have to have offense to go with it.

Krusty
10-28-2006, 03:20 PM
Well, if the Reds have intentions of keeping Dunn (firing Chambliss is pretty much an indicator that the Reds hope another instructor can improve his game), then it will be through free agency that they will try to improve the club because there isn't that much talent that would interest other clubs.

As for starting pitchers, I expect the Reds to go hard after RHP Adam Eaton and possibly RHP Vincete Padilla. Zito, Schimdt and Mussina will be out of their price range. Lilly? Just like Eric Milton....buyer beware.

As for the shortstop/second baseman situation, I would sign Angels Adam Kennedy to man second base with Phillips shifting to shortstop. Kennedy is horrible against lefthanders but you have Branden Harris to plug in against lefthanded pitching. And speaking of Harris, do you think he is a capable replacement for Aurilia while playing the infield positions? There had to be a reason why Krivsky acquired him from Washington.

As for closers, the market is horrible. I would offer former Dodger RHP Eric Gagne a one-year deal that is loaded with incentitives.

As for the outfield situation, shift Denorifa to CF with Junior in RF. Freel goes back to a super sub where he is playing 4 days a week.

Starting rotation: Harang, Arroyo, Eaton, Milton and either Loshe or Claussen. Bailey should be ready by Memorial Day.

Bullpen: Gagne, Schoweneis, Cormier, Bray, Majeswki, Coffey.

Starting lineup: Denorifa cf, Kennedy 2b, Junior rf, Encarncion 3b, Dunn lf, Phillips 2b, Hatteberg lb, Ross/Valentin c

Reserves: Freel, Harris, Valentin, Castro, Hopper

dougdirt
10-28-2006, 03:21 PM
I would be honestly surprised if Adam Dunn alone could bring a #3 starter. With how valued starting pitching is right now, it would be a shocker to me.

Krusty
10-28-2006, 03:24 PM
Anybody think Adam Eaton can be a solid third starter?


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4392

Patrick Bateman
10-28-2006, 03:27 PM
Would you do this deal:

Dunn to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar?

That's a deal in the right direction, Krusty.

We might have trouble getting Aybar in addition to Santana. Would you do McPherson instead of Aybar?

TC81190
10-28-2006, 03:45 PM
You're right, which is why I said the Angels wouldn't trade us Santana and Aybar in the same deal. I don't think they'd trade us Santana straight up, not that he's really proven much to this point. Barry Bonds will probably end up as the Angels DH next year, so they certainly wouldn't make a trade to acquire Adam Dunn when they can just buy Barry Bonds.

I couldn't agree more.

I just don't get all the manlove right now for Ted Lilly and Ervin Santana. Maybe I'm crazy.


I'd do my above stated deal. Duchsherer, Casilla, and Buck.

Buck is something rather good, he could match Dunn, I think, after a few seasons. I like Casilla's numbers, and Duchsherer is solid.

Slyder
10-28-2006, 05:44 PM
Anybody think Adam Eaton can be a solid third starter?


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4392

In one word No. In another couple words Not a chance. He had an era of over 5, whip of 1.58 last year. He wouldn't do well in GABP just like he couldn't do well in Arlington.

Krusty
10-28-2006, 05:46 PM
That's a deal in the right direction, Krusty.

We might have trouble getting Aybar in addition to Santana. Would you do McPherson instead of Aybar?

Right now they have Cabrera as their shortstop. Wood is rated higher in their system than Aybar?

How many shortstops do you need to play the position?

Patrick Bateman
10-28-2006, 06:32 PM
Right now they have Cabrera as their shortstop. Wood is rated higher in their system than Aybar?

How many shortstops do you need to play the position?

Still, it seems like a lot of value to give up from their POV. They wont just include Aybar because they can, they will try to get maximum value for him. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to unload Cabrera and make room for Aybar.

Redsfan08
10-28-2006, 08:53 PM
no

TC81190
10-28-2006, 08:55 PM
Still, it seems like a lot of value to give up from their POV. They wont just include Aybar because they can, they will try to get maximum value for him. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to unload Cabrera and make room for Aybar.

I can't see a whole lot of teams interested in O-Cab.

Slyder
10-28-2006, 11:01 PM
I can't see a whole lot of teams interested in O-Cab.

Maybe Put a call into Dan O'Brien he doesnt seem to care about actual talent as long as they "play the game the right way" and OCab would also give you "great vet at bats".

Krusty
10-29-2006, 10:46 AM
If you trade Dunn, you need to get offense in return.

Here is another trade idea:

Dunn and Coffey to the Tigers for OF Craig Monroe, RHP Humberto Sanchez and RHP Fernando Rodney.

Rodney would the Reds closer while Monroe replaces Dunn in LF. Sanchez is another arm that could be ready about the same time Homer Bailey is ready to crack the rotation.

VI_RedsFan
10-29-2006, 03:02 PM
If you trade Dunn, you need to get offense in return.

Here is another trade idea:

Dunn and Coffey to the Tigers for OF Craig Monroe, RHP Humberto Sanchez and RHP Fernando Rodney.

Rodney would the Reds closer while Monroe replaces Dunn in LF. Sanchez is another arm that could be ready about the same time Homer Bailey is ready to crack the rotation.


I think you might be on the right track with Detroit, Krusty. They have some nice looking young SP (Sanchez, Ledezma, Miner intrigue me) and a guy who, like you said in another thread, could be another Joe Nathan-type in Rodney.

You're right, we do need to get some offense in return if we trade Dunn, not just pitching. And Monroe is not the answer. Sure, 28 HR and 92 RBIs are nice, but check out his other numbers:

.255 BA, .301 OBP, and horrible plate discipline (126 SO and 37 BB in 541 ABs).

Those are not impressive numbers. The Tigers are a good partner if we are only interested in getting pitching for Adam, but if we are looking to get some offense along with pitching in return for Dunn, then they aren't a match.

pahster
10-29-2006, 03:38 PM
Thames is more interesting to me than Monroe. I'm at a loss as to why he sat on the bench for the Tigers.

VI_RedsFan
10-29-2006, 03:57 PM
Thames is more interesting to me than Monroe. I'm at a loss as to why he sat on the bench for the Tigers.

Yeah, Thames interests me more as well. I think he might be younger (or at least around the same age) as Monroe and he also has more power (hit 26 homers to Monroe's 28 in about 200 less ABs). Thames would be a nice offensive piece in a Dunn deal to Detroit.