View Full Version : Would you approve this offseason?

10-28-2006, 10:06 PM
Alright.. did some thinking.... Almost all of these would never happen but would the other teams approve these trades?

need some opinions. I overpay in some deals but I want to offer enough talent that they have a good shot of happening.

1. K. Lohse and J. Castro to the Mets for a decent prospect (or Oliver Perez).

The Reds cut salary and rid themselves of an expendable part in Lohse. Castro will be replaced by later trades and between the two, 5M or so is saved. The Mets could use utility infield help and they desperately need mid-backend rotational help.

2. Adam Dunn, Rheal Cormier, Elizardo Ramirez and B. Shackelford to the Angels for K. Escobar and E. Aybar (preferrably Wood but would settle for Aybar).

The Angels suddenly get a big lefty bat to work into that lineup; Dunn could DH or play 1B. Cormier instantly is the best LHRP in their pen and Elizardo slides into the #5 slot in their rotation. Shackelford also is another lefty in the mix (they direly lack leftys). Aybar solves the SS problem and Escobar slides into the middle of the rotation. While the Reds give up a lot of talent they also shed a significant amount of salary.

3. K. Griffey Jr. and B. Harris to the Orioles for K. Benson.

The O's have plenty of young arms (Bedard, Cabrera, Penn, Loewen, etc.) so Benson is expendable. Harris is a throw in but entices the O's slightly. Griffey gives them a powerful LH bat and he can either DH or move to a corner OF spot. The Reds cut salary (no 08' commitment or buyout to pay and about 5M saved in 07').

4. Milton, Olmedo, Szymanski OR the prospect from the Mets, and Pelland to the Phillies for P. Burrell and 5M (2.5M per season left on his deal).

Burrell gives the Reds a decent bat and by dumping Milton and getting cash compensation, they can afford him. Milton did well in Philly and the prospects are icing on the cake. Burrell was almost swapped for Rodrigo Lopez and some fringe prospects... this is a much better deal for the Phillies.

5. Bronson Arroyo and T. Wood to the Red Sox for J. Papelbon.

Tough to give up a prospect like Wood and a good starter in Arroyo, however, Papelbon finally gives the Reds a lights out closer. Considering Bronson wants to return to Boston and the Sox wanted to convert Papelbon to a starter anyways (Arroyo would be just as effective), this makes sense.

6. Jason LaRue, M. Perez, and C. Michalak to the Nationals for Christian Guzman and 5M$.

Guzman fills in at SS under Aybar is ready and replaces Castro as the utility 2B/SS. His 1.7M salary is not bad considering the LaRue/Castro combo makes 6.7M in 2007 and Castro makes a comparable amount to Guzman in 2008. LaRue takes over fulltime at C for the Nats and Perez is a possibility down the road. Michalak makes sense for a #5 starter/long reliever.

-D. Weathers 1 yr. 2M, 2.25 08' team option.

-C. Lee 5 yr. 64M, 14M 2012 team option.
Long term contract, however, expiring shorter contracts and growing revenue make this affordable.

-B. Zito 4. yr 52M, 14M 2011 team option.
Not the longest deal but more $ than the 12M he apparently wanted to seek. His contract should end in time to lock Bailey up to a fat contract.

-F. Tatis 1 yr. 500k
Good bench bat and 3B.

The Team

Donorfia CF .4M
Aybar SS .4M
C. Lee LF 12M
P. Burrell RF 10.5M
E. Encarnacion 3B .5M
S. Hatteburg 1B 1.5M
B. Phillips 2B .5M
D. Ross C 1.6M

R. Freel OF 2.3M
Votto 1B (maybe a J. Cruz Jr. type if Votto isn't ready) .4M
C. Guzman 2B/SS 1.7M
F. Tatis 3B .5M
J. Valentin C 1.5M

B. Zito 13M
A. Harang 4.5M
K. Escobar 8.5M
K. Benson 7.5M
B. Claussen/H. Bailey .6M

J. Papelbon .5M
D. Weathers 2M
T. Coffey .5M
B. Bray .4M
M. Belisle .5M
G. Majewski .5M
J. Standridge/Claussen (if Bailey's in the rotation) .4M
Payroll is 73M, a bit high, however the revenue would significantly increase and compensate.

10-28-2006, 10:18 PM
No, we need to keep some of the players!

Dunn or Griffey should stay in my opinion - keep some familiar faces around.


10-29-2006, 01:55 AM
Loshe is a free agent i believe.

10-29-2006, 06:57 AM
Loshe is a free agent i believe.

No, Lohse is Arb eligible and had a $4 Million or so salary in 2006. Since he would need to be offered at least $3.2 Million or so in 2007 per the CBA, speculation is that the Reds will non-tender him. He is still Reds' property and can still be traded. For many teams his contract would be a non-issue. The Reds should sign and trade him IMO. If they can't work out a deal, then non-tender.

10-29-2006, 08:50 AM
I do not approve. In the Dunn deal we are giving up a little to much and not getting back enough in return. Some of the other deals either have FA's, Arb. Eligiable players, or 10/5 players and we could only deal one of them if he approves it and Junior won't want to go to Baltimore. Why deal Dunn if you are going to acquire Burrell? Bronson and Wood for Pabelbon and Pabelbon isn't starting.. no way do I give up one of our best prospects, and one of my aces for a starter turned closer turned back to a starter who just came off an injury. You better be getting Lester, Pena, Pauley, and Loretta if your dealing Wood and Arroyo.

10-29-2006, 09:08 AM
Organizations are not going to trade away any kind of serviceable pitching for position players in most instances. Not in this current market.

Jr, who has 10-5 rights, would never go to Baltimore. And I doubt the owner would be "enticed" at having the current KGJ. We're stuck.

The Phillies had Milton. They're not that dumb.

Oliver Perez' problems are, IMO, due to an arm that will soon be undergoing the knife. No Thanks.

You're trading away an Adam Dunn, and then acquiring an older (and soon to be more expensive) Carlos Lee. I'm not against that as long as we could acquire a "need" for Dunn, and not just simply try to dump his contract.

Lee.... AVG .300 | HR 37 | RBI 116 | OBP .355 | SLG .540

VS. LEFT .313 / .844 VS. RIGHT .296 / .911
HOME .310 / .912 AWAY .291 / .880

Dunn K's 39.8% Lee K's 12.2%

But you are also trading away a guy (Dunn) who ranks #3 in all of MLB with 112 BB's, for a guy (Lee) who was #62. Some would not like that. ;)

If (a BIG "IF")... because even though you are trading away Dunn and his contract, you're still saddled with the Milton and Jr contracts, while trying to add salary with the below players I mention (Lee and Young). That makes it very hard to accomplish IMO... But "IF" I could accomplish the above and trade away Dunn, while acquiring and affording Carlos Lee, then I'd love to see the Reds go after a Michael Young at SS..... 8th in MLB in SLG% and OB%, has put up solid, consistent numbers for the last 4 years. You have your SS, while keeping Phillips at 2B.

Produced an .833 OPS in the #2 spot in the order.

And if I can use the term "clutch", then this guy is it....

Runners On 306 ABs .324 BA .362 OB% .490 SLG% .852 OPS
Scoring Position 148 ABs .412 BA .444 OB% .615 SLG% 1.059 OPS

Drawback? Age (30)

You keep Arroyo. Very good contract for the Reds. The last thing we need to be doing is trading away a good SP. You're compounding the situation.

The contracts that are hurting this team... Jr and Milton.... equals 20 Mil. And the problem is that the rest of MLB really wants nothing to do with them either, based on their recent history/performance.

No GM in his right mind, and who values his job, would even entertain taking on those contracts.

IMHO... this organization, beginning with this off-season, needs to incrementally start identifying and putting the pieces together for when those contracts are gone, and the money is freed up in '07 and '08.

And even after Jr's contract is up after '08, there is an option for '09 or a 4 Mil buyout, plus the deferred money we will be paying him.

It's a sad commentary, but this is the position this team is currently in.

But there is hope IF they start to make the right decisions and build towards the future with an eye on getting out from under those contracts.

10-29-2006, 09:30 AM
IMHO... this organization, beginning with this off-season, needs to incrementally start identifying and putting the pieces together for when those contracts are gone, and the money is freed up in '07 and '08.


Quick fixes rarely work.

10-29-2006, 09:39 AM

Quick fixes rarely work.

Which makes me apprehensive abut mentioning or "throwing out" names like Lee and Young (above) who are 30 yrs old. To some, and I would tend to agree, those would appear to be more "quick fixes" then long term solutions.

But hey... it's a discussion forum. ;)

10-29-2006, 10:41 AM
Well, the Reds need another infielder to play either shortstop or second base? Does Alex Gonzalez interests you to be the shortstop? Or how about either Adam Kennedy or Ronnie Belliard for second base?

The Reds could use another starter. I just don't see Castanelli and Krivsky breaking the bank to bring in Zito, Schimdt or Mussina? Does Adam Eaton or Vincente Padilla interest you?

Reds need a closer. The only true closer is the injury-prone Eric Gagne. Are you ready to give him a one-year deal loaded with incentives?

As for the trade market, Dunn is really the only Red that will bring back something substantial in return. But will his lost production hurt the Reds even more?

Interesting to see what Wayne K. does. But I pretty much can bet it will be a more interesting offseason than the past two with Dan O'Brien as the GM.

10-29-2006, 11:07 AM
R&R, you certainly did alot of thinking and configuring on this post. You did a good job of presenting your ideas and explaining your logic. I can't say I agree with many of them, but your ideas have some merit. ;)

I have to say the Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood for Papelbon does not fly well with me. Why give up a pitcher who was the league leader in innings pitched (Arroyo) for one who finished the season nursing a shoulder injury (Papelbon). If the Reds are that desperate for a closer, I'd rather let Arroyo close...and keep Travis Wood.

BTW, I do feel Arroyo could be a very effective closer. And, with less exposure, he'd be more effective against lefties.

10-29-2006, 03:04 PM
Well I overpaid in all of these deals yes... But I wanted to make sure it was enough talent to make the deal happen. Obviously if the price can realistically be less then pull the trigger without giving up as much talent. We overvalue our players I must admit and most of these deals I overpaid, even outsiders would say is enough to make it happen.

The Dunn deal for instance would possibly net Wood, who would be a slightly better solution than Aybar. If someone else could be thrown in with Arroyo for Papelbon thats less valuable than Wood than of course, do it. Regarding the Burrell deal, I would even trade Milton, Olmedo and Wood assuming a lesser prospect was traded to Boston. Why not just keep Dunn since Burrell is a similar player? We get rid of Milton (10M left on his contract) for Burrell (27M left over 2 years but with cash compensation). The Phillies aren't going to want Milton but at least he has had mild success there... This is basically a salary dump on their end though, like I said they discussed trading him for Rodrigo Lopez. Milton did have an era under 5 last year away from home too. Prospects thrown in give the Phillies additional talent to make this an irresistable offer to compliment the roughly 12M saved.

Basically the end result is that Burrell offers similar production to Dunn (.388 OBP, .504 SLG I believe) and we get him for the price of Milton. For a slew of spare parts an non-essential talent we net Aybar or maybe Brandon Wood as well as K. Escobar who is a legit #2-3 starter despite his price tag.

The Arroyo deal might be overpaying but as we found out, lights out closers don't grow on trees. Arroyo also had a career year.. I expect him to regress to like a 3.90-4.20 ERA, 12-15 win kind of season next year. Still good but not as good. His value is at a peak and his contract makes him attractive. With a 4.20 ERA, 12 win season and 1 year left before free agency next year for instance he could never net a Papelbon. Likewise the new talent brought in compensates for his loss... We have 4 other legit starters and possibly 5 with Bailey. There are no decent closer options out there besides trade (Gagne is a risk and will probably resign w/ LA).

Also, regarding the short term solution stuff... Carlos Lee to a 5 yr. deal is not too bad... We need some guys who are all around hitters. The Cards have Pujois and Duncan now.. Astros got Berkman... Pirates got Bay... Cubs got Ramirez and Lee (when healthy). We really lack a guy who can hit .300, 30, 100 let alone better like Lee. It's not like he's 35... he's in his prime and its safe to say he will likely stay at this level of production for 2-3 years and only tail off a little bit. What other options are there? Next years FA crop will likely not have many guys in this mold either besides maybe Dye.

Zito on the other hand to a shorter, more convervative 4 year deal gives us first of all a dominant lefty, a rare commodity, and he can be counted to win 15 or more a year with a 3.50ish ERA. His health has also been generally good. Again its not like he's 35 or something.

10-29-2006, 03:35 PM
The main problem that I see with most of the proposals (not specifically this one) is that they all want to trade core players and hope to replace them with free agent signings. Its true that trading these guys would free some $, but having money for the free agents is only step 1. There also needs to be a reason for these guys to play here. Why would a Carlos Lee for example want to play in Cincy after Dunn and Griffey are gone? Would he come here to be the only big threat on the team when he will surely have lots of options to go elsewhere and be a part of a good team? There is a reason that teams like the Pirates and Royals end up with guys like Jeromy Burnitz and Matt Stairs as the big acquisitions. If Dunn and Griffey are gone, other big hitters (or pitchers) won't want to come here either IMO. Many already do not want to. You would have to pay significantly above market to lure them and that is a losing game for a rebuilding team.

This team needs to make incremental improvements around the core and make itself more desirable before plans like this can really work IMO.

Some other things to consider for this plan:

Papelbon wants to start and does not want to be a closer.

Zito wants to stay on the west coast.

Griffey won't go to the Orioles.

The Angels won't trade Aybar until they know 2B and 3b will work out or they get a big time 3B back in the deal. The Angels also won't downgarde from Escobar to Lizard to get a bat because they have money and are a desirable option for players and they could just sign a bat (maybe Lee).

Ramirez and Milton are coming off surgery and need to show that they are healthy.

Michalek is a Free Agent and can not be traded.