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TeamSelig
10-30-2006, 05:22 PM
SS:
Last season: Felipe Lopez to Royce Clayton
Current Player: Juan Castro
Options: BP position change, Resign Rich Aurilia, Ray Olmedo, Trade: Angels SS (Wood, Aybar, Izturis, Cabrera): Marcus Giles (Atlanta), Free Agency: Julio Lugo

Rich will probably go to a contender, and want more money than we can give. Olmedo isn't a MLB caliber player. We need a SS, but acquiring a 2B could be easier/cheaper so we could switch Brandon Phillips to Short and grab a 2B.

Closer
Last season: David Weathers to Todd Coffey to Eddie Guardado
Current player: Todd Coffey (?)
Options: Coffey, Bray, Majik, Trade: Brad Lidge (Astros), Eric Gagne, Yhency Brazoban, Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers), Scot Shields, Brendan Donnelly (Angels)

Everyday Eddie is out for quite a while with surgery. Todd Coffey didn't do too hot at the CL role last year. David Weathers is a free agent. Desperately need a closer, a guy we can actually count on to end some games.

#3 Starting Pitcher
Last season: Eric Milton
Current player: Eric Milton
Options: Kyle Lohse (arb. eligible), Free Agency: Ted Lilly

I think we could be OK by just getting a #3 starter. With a rotation of: Harang/Arroyo/*/Milton/Lizard. When Homer debutes this gives us a top of the line rotation. Harang isn't bad for a #1 starter. Arroyo is a good #2, Milton is a good #4 starter, and Lizard when healthy put up good numbers out of the 5th spot. Just need a #3 to move Milton & Elizardo farther down the rotation to solidify the rotation. Again, when Homer comes in this puts Lizard or Milton in the bullpen and moves our rotation from good to great.

Questionable Holes:

Bullpen:

Coffey
Majik
Bray
Cormier
Belisle
Shackelford
Other options: AAA arm, Resign David Weathers

If a good closer can be brought in, then the rest of the bullpen should be pretty good if Majik can return to his normal self. If no closer is found, one is going to be picked within the BP, which means we'll need to get another good arm.

CF
Last season: Ken Griffey
Current player: Ken Griffey
Options: Chris Denorfia

Griffey is declining fast (defensively), and it's hard to count on him playing a whole season. Denorfia hasn't really showed that he could handle bein a full time CFer, so you can't really count him in for being a replacement. Questionable because of Juniors injury history and his lack of range.

1B
Last season: Rich Aurilia/Scott Hatteberg
Current player: Scott Hatteberg
Options: Joey Votto, Resign Rich Aurilia

Questionable hole beacuse Hatteberg had a career year, and probably won't repeat. Getting a 1B would move Scott to the bench, which in turn makes him pretty valuable IMO. Hatte posted most of his #s at home with the short right field porch, so maybe he will put up similar numbers again (basically: the stadium inflated his #'s and not a career year).

Alot of talk of trading Dunn has been going on so if we trade him we will need to at least fill our holes.

- we might not have to get a starting Outfielder back. Denorfia could replace Dunn and improve our OF defense by alot. But then who replaces Griffey? Remember: we should have Jay Bruce in a season or two, and there is also Drew Stubbs who is highly regarded.

Holes:
SS, CL, SP

Trade:

OF Adam Dunn, Rheal Cormier, Jason LaRue for Macier Izturis, Ervin Santana, Scot Shields, JC Romero, Darin Erstad (i'm not sure but I think he has a big contract, we could take him or just give cash along with the deal)

Would they do this? They have quite a few SS in their system, so Izturis has lowered value. Romero pitched bad this season but has the Minnesota background & has been good in the past. Erstad is just a cash balance. Dunn gives them a power bat, probably their DH. Rivera would move to Center

Expectations:
RF Freel 8-10 HRs .360-370 OBP 35 SBs
SS Izturis 10 HRs .365-375 OBP 15-20 SBs
CF Griffey 25-30 HRs .340-350 OBP
3B Encarnacion 25-30 HRs .350-360 OBP 40-50 2Bs
2B Phillips 20-25 HRs .330-.340 OBP 25-30 SBs
1B Hatteberg 10-12 HRs .355-.365 OBP
C Ross 15-20 HRs .340-.350 OBP
LF Denorfia 5-10 HRs .360-.370 OBP

Bench:
C Javier Valentin
SS Jerry Gil
INF Juan Castro
OF Todd Hollandsworth
OF Darin Erstad

Rotation:
Aaron Harang 3.50-3.75 ERA
Bronson Arroyo 3.45-3.70 ERA
Ervin Santana 3.75-4.00 ERA
Eric Milton 4.65-4.90
Elizardo Ramirez 4.25-4.50
(Homer Bailey mid season)

Bullpen: (also 5th starter when Bailey debutes)
CL: Shields
SU: Coffey
MR: Bray
MR: Majik
LR: Belisle
LR: Romero
LOOGY: Shackelford

We could probably use a little more power (maybe a power hitting vet OFer), but with Joey Votto hopefully coming up about midseason we will be fine.

Tom Servo
10-30-2006, 05:31 PM
Erstad and Romero are free agents, I believe.

TeamSelig
10-30-2006, 05:35 PM
Crap lol.... well they were just throw in's anyway. No big deal. Just add some cash on the Reds part, unless if LAA have another bad contract that i'm not aware of?

redsmetz
10-30-2006, 08:38 PM
I'm highly doubtful that Juan Castro is the starter at shortstop on the Reds depth charts (just like Royce Clayton was only a throw in on the Nats trade). Neither is long term and Castro will not be the starter next year. Now whether that will be Phillips or some other trade/free agency player, I can't say, but it won't be Juan Castro.

TeamSelig
10-30-2006, 09:06 PM
If we don't sign anyone he is. There are no other SS in the system

jamess697
10-30-2006, 09:17 PM
I really like the trade idea, Santana is a star in the making, Romero could use a change, and Sheilds would be better than what we have now at closer. The only problem I see is with Erstad's contract. If we was able to get another solid minor league procpect instead of him then it would be great.

Redhook
10-30-2006, 09:42 PM
Although that trade has a few holes, I am not opposed to it. I like the return. However this lineup is incredibly weak:

Expectations:
RF Freel 8-10 HRs .360-370 OBP 35 SBs
SS Izturis 10 HRs .365-375 OBP 15-20 SBs
CF Griffey 25-30 HRs .340-350 OBP
3B Encarnacion 25-30 HRs .350-360 OBP 40-50 2Bs
2B Phillips 20-25 HRs .330-.340 OBP 25-30 SBs
1B Hatteberg 10-12 HRs .355-.365 OBP
C Ross 15-20 HRs .340-.350 OBP
LF Denorfia 5-10 HRs .360-.370 OBP

If we could somehow get a decent right fielder then I would like this lineup alot. Phillips batting 5th won't win any championships. I'd like to get someone better than Jose Guillen, but even he would help this lineup out tremendously.

Freel/Denorfia CF
Izturis SS
Guillen RF
Griffey LF
Encarnacion 3B
Phillips 2B
Ross C
Hatteberg 1B

That's not a bad lineup, especially if Votto is ready by mid-season and slides into the 6th spot.

Although I believe it will be incredibley difficult for the Reds to contend next year, a few key trades could, just barely, make it possible.

redsfanfalcon
10-30-2006, 09:59 PM
SS:
Last season: Felipe Lopez to Royce Clayton
Current Player: Juan Castro
Options: BP position change, Resign Rich Aurilia, Ray Olmedo, Trade: Angels SS Marcus Giles (Atlanta), Free Agency: Julio Lugo


Marcus Giles is a 2B, unless you are saying BP goes to SS, and we sign Giles as a FA.

redsmetz
10-30-2006, 11:30 PM
If we don't sign anyone he is. There are no other SS in the system

They will not go in to next season with Juan Castro as the starting shortstop. They'll trade or sign someone else. I personally like Juan Castro and think he's an asset, but not as the starter.

TeamSelig
10-31-2006, 12:51 AM
I know, but currently he's our only SS right now until we officially announce BP moving over to SS and put Harris at second or something. I think a trade or free agent signing is going to happen though.

And yeah I was talking about Giles handling second & Brandon movin over. Should have noted that.

Ryan Freel not being a MLB starter = myth

I'll agree that the lineup is a bit weak, RF isn't the problem. Denorfia would be the weak spot IMO (depending on how he would react to a starting role and everyday ABs). I think it just lacks a power hitting OFer, Jose Guillen wouldn't be too bad to grab. Everyone else has pretty good patience besides BP, so his free swing style wouldn't be too damaging.