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Wheelhouse
11-02-2006, 03:49 PM
Why are the Tigers supposedly shipping out Bonderman? Is that true? If they are, he should be target #1 for the Reds (18 HR in 34 games).

Falls City Beer
11-02-2006, 03:57 PM
Tread carefully with Bonderman. I'd pick him up, but I wouldn't believe I was getting a sure thing with him. Something about the guy bugs me, and it isn't because he looks like Powder.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 03:59 PM
Something about the guy bugs me, and it isn't because he looks like Powder.Maybe because his numbers have never been very good, especially considering what a nice pitchers park Comerica is. He doesn't look any better than guys named Rogers, Robertson, Maroth, etc.

BRM
11-02-2006, 04:02 PM
Are they really shopping him? I've read trade ideas here on RedsZone with his name mentioned but I haven't seen it anywhere else. Then again, I haven't really looked anywhere else.

Patrick Bateman
11-02-2006, 04:03 PM
Maybe because his numbers have never been very good, especially considering what a nice pitchers park Comerica is. He doesn't look any better than guys named Rogers, Robertson, Maroth, etc.

Gotta disagree there. Bonderman is no sure thing, but he is light years ahead of Maroth and Robertson. It's not even close. Bonderman was pretty solid this season. If he came to the Reds I think he could post a 3.40-3.60 ERA. Robertson and Maroth are far worse.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 04:11 PM
Gotta disagree there. Bonderman is no sure thing, but he is light years ahead of Maroth and Robertson. It's not even close. Bonderman was pretty solid this season. If he came to the Reds I think he could post a 3.40-3.60 ERA. Robertson and Maroth are far worse.On potential I would agree but on performance they have put up similar numbers.

2006
NR 3.84ERA 1.31WHIP
JB 4.08ERA 1.30WHIP
MM - injured

2005
NR 4.48ERA 1.36WHIP
JB 4.57ERA 1.35WHIP
MM 4.74ERA 1.37 WHIP

2004
NR 4.90ERA 1.40WHIP
JB 4.89ERA 1.31WHIP
MM 4.31ERA 1.40WHIP

performance looks awfully similar to me. Pitching a very nice pitchers ballpark Bonderman has done nothing to say he is anything special to this point in his career. He may blossom in the future but I wouldn't want to pay for that in a trade.

Patrick Bateman
11-02-2006, 04:27 PM
On potential I would agree but on performance they have put up similar numbers.

2006
NR 3.84ERA 1.31WHIP
JB 4.08ERA 1.30WHIP
MM - injured

2005
NR 4.48ERA 1.36WHIP
JB 4.57ERA 1.35WHIP
MM 4.74ERA 1.37 WHIP

2004
NR 4.90ERA 1.40WHIP
JB 4.89ERA 1.31WHIP
MM 4.31ERA 1.40WHIP

performance looks awfully similar to me. Pitching a very nice pitchers ballpark Bonderman has done nothing to say he is anything special to this point in his career. He may blossom in the future but I wouldn't want to pay for that in a trade.

Bonderman was horribly unlucky this season. Teams BAPIP'd .328 off of him. By comparison to Maroth and Robertson, Bonderman K's more guys, BB's about the same, and gives up far less HR's.

Their stats look similar basically out of luck (especially this season). I think Bonderman has made terrific strides this season. If he can stay healthy, I think he would make a good front of the rotation starter with enormous potential. I think he may be a big injury risk with the amount of time he's already pitched in the majors at his age, but from a talent perspective, he's a great target.

If he can keep pitching up to his current levels, there will be an enormous gap between him and Robertson/Maroth, with enormous potential for the future.

Wheelhouse
11-02-2006, 04:27 PM
On potential I would agree but on performance they have put up similar numbers.

2006
NR 3.84ERA 1.31WHIP
JB 4.08ERA 1.30WHIP
MM - injured

2005
NR 4.48ERA 1.36WHIP
JB 4.57ERA 1.35WHIP
MM 4.74ERA 1.37 WHIP

2004
NR 4.90ERA 1.40WHIP
JB 4.89ERA 1.31WHIP
MM 4.31ERA 1.40WHIP

performance looks awfully similar to me. Pitching a very nice pitchers ballpark Bonderman has done nothing to say he is anything special to this point in his career. He may blossom in the future but I wouldn't want to pay for that in a trade.

Hey, the guy's 24 and he showing a good trend in his #s. I'd jump if he's out there...

flyer85
11-02-2006, 04:37 PM
Hey, the guy's 24 and he showing a good trend in his #s. I'd jump if he's out there...Reds have little to give and certainly no position of strength to trade from. The Reds are more likely limited to trading for a good player with a not so good contract.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 04:39 PM
Bonderman was horribly unlucky this season.so what happened in 2004 and 2005? Maybe his middle name is Schleprock. :laugh:

Patrick Bateman
11-02-2006, 04:46 PM
so what happened in 2004 and 2005? Maybe his middle name is Schleprock. :laugh:

He was 22 and 23.

It's called developing. Young pitchers tend to do that.

He's clearly improving, and this season, it's ridiculous to compare him to Robertson/Maroth.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2006, 04:48 PM
I know what it is that bugs me: tons of mileage on a young arm. Thanks all for reminding me.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 04:51 PM
He's clearly improving, and this season, it's ridiculous to compare him to Robertson/Maroth.Yep, he compares much better to Halladay. ;)

flyer85
11-02-2006, 04:51 PM
I know what it is that bugs me: tons of mileage on a young arm. ... and without much success to this point.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2006, 04:54 PM
... and without much success to this point.

In all fairness, he had a pretty great season this year. But they've pushed the pedal to the metal with that kid. I expect the wheels to fall off any time.

Like I said, I'd pick him up in a trade, but I wouldn't give a premium chip to do it.

klw
11-02-2006, 04:56 PM
I don't have ESPN Insider but apparently the current Rob Neyer column is on this very subject.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 04:57 PM
It may well be that Bonderman should have spent his age 21 and 22 seasons in the minors, but he didn't. So while he is long on potential he has been short on performance. And thanks to the Tigers they wasted his cheap years and he will now get very expensive. I don't believe he is the kind of risk the Reds need to take at the moment. If you want to gamble on a young arm blossoming, do it on a cheap one, not an expensive and overworked one(at a young age).

Patrick Bateman
11-02-2006, 04:59 PM
Yep, he compares much better to Halladay. ;)

If your reason for not wanting Bonderman is because he isn't a fair comparison to Halladay, then I'm guessing there aren't many pitchers that you do like.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2006, 05:00 PM
If your reason for not wanting Bonderman is because he isn't a fair comparison to Halladay, then I'm guessing there aren't many pitchers that you do like.

For the record, Halladay's hella overrated, too. Dude doesn't K anyone anymore.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 05:00 PM
I don't have ESPN Insider but apparently the current Rob Neyer column is on this very subject.hear is the statement where Neyer stumbles upon the truth, and it's the one Krivsky needs to hear.


But if I'm Dave Dombrowski and somebody asks me whom I'm going to trade, I've got a simple answer: "I'll make the trade that's going to improve my run differential to the greatest degree over the next two or three seasons."

Patrick Bateman
11-02-2006, 05:00 PM
If you want to gamble on a young arm blossoming, do it on a cheap one.

Those don't exactly grow on trees.

Patrick Bateman
11-02-2006, 05:02 PM
For the record, Halladay's hella overrated, too. Dude doesn't K anyone anymore.

Good point. His K/9 went down from 7.5 to 5.8. That's a pretty scary drop. He's still a great pitcher, but I'm not sure that Bonderman is that far away from him right now.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 05:02 PM
If your reason for not wanting Bonderman is because he isn't a fair comparison to Halladay,my reason for not wanting Bonderman are that he is about to get expensive and IS a fair comparision performancewise to Robertson. He has a huge upside that Robertson never had or will have but teams waste a lot of money on unrealized potential. In the Reds case it could be wasting talent and money on that potential.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 05:04 PM
Those don't exactly grow on trees.It's why you grow your own. Reds need to be patient and wait on the likes of Bailey/Cueto/Wood instead of burning up more run differential in trades.

Patrick Bateman
11-02-2006, 05:05 PM
my reason for not wanting Bonderman are that he is about to get expensive and IS a fair comparision performancewise to Robertson.

I'm not sold on that being true. Maybe for 2004 and 2005, but in 2006 Bonderman was miles ahead of Robertson. Obviously, we can't just toss the previous years out the door, but 2006 is the easily the most vital year to look at. It shows the progress Bonderman has made in the last year, and for a 34 year old pitcher, that's hugely important.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2006, 05:06 PM
Those don't exactly grow on trees.

This is a fair point--beggars (the Reds), to some extent, can't be choosers. Risk has to be factored into any deal that might help in turning the franchise around (cf. Pena for Arroyo). You're going to take on some players with flaws; you HAVE to.

But I think it's similarly fair to say that some risks shouldn't be taken, no matter how dire the Reds circumstance is or becomes. Not saying that Bonderman falls in that class of risk, just that one shouldn't become addicted to risk. Otherwise you end up sending Washington Kearns and Lopez for those things the Reds got in return (I'm actually not kidding, I kind of forgot the other names besides Maj).

registerthis
11-02-2006, 05:09 PM
For the record, Halladay's hella overrated, too. Dude doesn't K anyone anymore.

I'm not seeing how 220 IP of 3.19 ERA 1.10 WHIP ball is grossly overrated. He may not K many guys, but he doesn't walk many either (1.39 BB/9), and he's not BABIP lucky. He may benefit from pitching in Toronto, but that only accounts for so much.

marcshoe
11-02-2006, 05:18 PM
Bonderman had a good k/9 rate even when he was getting poor results. And if the Reds do upgrade the middle infield in the offseason (and I think they will pick up someone at either second or short who will help), then Bonderman's good groundball rate would be a fit here. I think he'd be worth taking a chance on, but...

I have a feeling that Detroit will ask for a lot in return.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2006, 05:19 PM
I'm not seeing how 220 IP of 3.19 ERA 1.10 WHIP ball is grossly overrated. He may not K many guys, but he doesn't walk many either (1.39 BB/9), and he's not BABIP lucky. He may benefit from pitching in Toronto, but that only accounts for so much.

I mean overrated in the sense of being considered for the Cy Young in any year he's healthy (which isn't often). His numbers are nice, but he's always kind of reminded me of an AL Matt Clement. Doesn't particularly thrill me for some reason.

flyer85
11-02-2006, 05:58 PM
I have a feeling that Detroit will ask for a lot in return.... and if he pitches well he would be gone via free agency after 2008.

WK needs to buy low and sell high, like he did with the Ross and Phillips trades.

blumj
11-02-2006, 06:30 PM
I mean overrated in the sense of being considered for the Cy Young in any year he's healthy (which isn't often). His numbers are nice, but he's always kind of reminded me of an AL Matt Clement. Doesn't particularly thrill me for some reason.
I've seen AL Matt Clement, and believe me, he's no Roy Halladay. 34 BB in 220 IP? That's Schilling-esque. He works quickly, throws strikes, gets a lot of quick outs. He's the anti-Matt Clement.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2006, 06:34 PM
I've seen AL Matt Clement, and believe me, he's no Roy Halladay. 34 BB in 220 IP? That's Schilling-esque. He works quickly, throws strikes, gets a lot of quick outs. He's the anti-Matt Clement.

No. I meant Halladay's the AL version of the NL Clement. Low Ks ground ball pitcher that doesn't suppress contact with the ball--relying on defense, etc.

@ .700 OPSA type of pitcher. Effective, but not a killer, and seldom worth discussing in most Cy Young discussions.

And certainly not worth mentioning in the same breath with Schilling.

M2
11-02-2006, 07:04 PM
Bonderman could bust through, but he's got a lot of mileage on that young arm of his. You've also got to be suspicious that the Tigers are shopping him.

That said, if he's on the market, the Reds have to look into what he'd cost.

paulrichjr
11-02-2006, 07:30 PM
I read the article. Nothing in the article suggests that Bonderman is on the market. Neyer suggests that they consider it because basically no one should be untouchable.