PDA

View Full Version : My offseason thoughts



Mario-Rijo
11-03-2006, 11:50 AM
Hmmm....

What to do, what not to do? What's reasonable, what's logical, what's possible.

In order to come to these conclusions we must 1st decipher what Narron and Krivsky feel is important. I think it's now obvious based on statements made by Krivsky that this defense and offense need some work. And pitching is difficult to obtain via trade so let's assume that any significant upgrade in pitching will come via FA.

1st thing to consider is that even though Ken Griffey Jr.'s salary is no longer that prohibitive for a team to take on, his injuries and obvious decline in most all areas are going to turn most suitors away. I think if he was to get dealt at all, it won't be until late in the off-season when a team like the Tigers for example lose out on all the big LH bats available and decide to take a flyer on him but we either won't get much relief salary-wise or we won't get much in return or perhaps both. My offer to Detroit would be Griffey and 3 Mill for Craig Monroe. Very similiar statistics but Jr is a LH hitter who helps tie all those RH batters together and Detroit does not have to give up one of those sterling arms which would be a huge key to the deal for them. He could split time between CF and DH (mostly DH). Monroe on the other hand is younger, RH and is a solid COF. I think if you can pull that deal off you are doing some good. This of course is assuming that Monroe isn't a FA, I don't believe he is. Heck I might even toss in something else who knows. The key to this deal is clearly Griffey accepting the trade. He may very well do it, it's a contender, it's not very much further than Cincy from home and if Casey were to go back to Detroit this offseason he won't feel all alone.

2nd thing to consider is that Adam Dunn is probably going nowhere based on this single solitary issue. His talent says he should be far better than his production and no one is likely to give up what we all feel he can be worth. However if you are going to deal a young LH monster slugger then you wanna do a couple of things. Get completely blown away by an offer from a NL team (preferably not in the division) or get a little lesser deal (lesser than blown away), save a few dollars and fill some needs accross the board or get a young #1 or #2 pitcher (A #1 is not even going to happen, unless someone is very desperate). But if he is going to get dealt then Detroit is a strong possiblity (although it hurts our chances with trading them Griffey).

My offer would be to Texas: Adam Dunn, Gary Majewski, Elizardo Ramirez, Brendan Harris and Joey Votto for Mark Texiera, Ian Kinsler and Thomas Diamond or John Danks or one of those stellar young arms that's not quite ML ready yet. Texas gets a couple of solid arms (1 in the pen and 1 for the rotation) they don't lose alot offensively and they have their future 1st baseman and a possible 2nd bagger. Dunn splits time between LF and DH. I don't know how pheasible it is, we may have to substitute Coffey for Majik, I know they liked him pretty well at one point. But I try to keep Coffey unless it's a dealbreaker.

I truly believe if you offer up 2 mill, Jason LaRue and Brandon Claussen to K.C. for David DeJesus (CF, LH) and a low level pitching prospect, You will likely get it done. Not a true burner but had nearly as many BB's (43) as he had K's (70).


Now your team is better defensively, hits for a higher average and doesn't lose any power. Check it out, plus you do all this while getting rid of alot of salary (although you shelled out a few bucks as well).



Ok here is what it looks like.

Lineup: VS. LHP
1.) Freel RF
2.) DeJesus CF
3.) Texiera 1B
4.) Encarnacion 3B
5.) Monroe LF
6.) Ross C
7.) Phillips SS
8.) Kinsler 2B

Lineup: VS. RHP
1.) DeJesus CF
2.) Kinsler 2B
3.) Texiera LF
4.) Encarnacion 3B
5.) Hatteberg 1B
6.) Monroe RF
7.) Ross/Valentin C
8.) Phillips SS

Sidenotes: You can also platoon Freel w/ Monroe, DeJesus and Kinsler so you can get maximum effectiveness. Also Texiera goes back to full time 1st base in '08 when Hatteberg leaves and then we bring up Jay Bruce to platoon with Deno & Monroe in '08 and then full time COF in '09.

Then you go out and find solid replacements for the arms you got rid of. I like Vicente Padilla as our 3rd starter, and Joe Borowski as our closer. The pitching then looks like this.

Rotation:
Harang RHP
Arroyo RHP
Padilla RHP
Milton LHP
Lohse RHP

Pen:
LR Matt Belisle RH
MR Standridge RH
MR Cormier LH
LH Spec. Shackelford LH (No one on this staff gets LH out better)
Set Up Bray LH
Set Up Coffey
CL Borowski

Bench:
Def Spec. Juan Castro IF
5th OF Chris Denorfia or Norris Hopper
LH Bat Todd Hollandsworth


Obviously this would be to start the season, later on due to injuries and ineffectiveness you could bring up a host of guys. I might even consider leaving Standridge off of the opening day roster and in Triple-A so we could add another bat off the bench. Perhaps Jerry Gil could make it or whomever doesn't make it between Hopper and Deno initially. Gil may be the w/c here if he can actually play both SS and a little OF and he has some power from the right side watch out Deno and Hopper.

Of course it's a whole lot more likely we will have both Griffey and Dunn, which I am not necc. opposed to as long as Narron uses them both more efficiently. Put Dunn in the 3rd hole, EE in the 4th and Jr. in the 5th on most occasions (vs. RH) and move Jr. out of CF to RF. Of course I would rather have Jr. in LF but Dunn is already there with nowhere else to go. But if you still have them how do you fill the other holes.

That's a question best answered in 2 weeks when we know who is all available, no reason to get ahead of ourselves huh! :D

Mario-Rijo
11-05-2006, 02:24 AM
Either I hit the nail right on the head and no one disagrees with me or everyone thinks my ideas are laughable and not worth commenting on. Which is it? I normally would not care except I think these moves are not only pretty realistic but also have a nice splash to them.

What do you all say am I reaching too much or what?

Redsfan08
11-05-2006, 03:08 AM
Boring off-season again probably

VI_RedsFan
11-05-2006, 08:18 AM
I like your ideas, Mario-Rijo. I especially like the KC trade. DeJesus is the exact type of young, speedy outfielders we need to target. I also like the Rangers trade. Getting Texiera and Kinsler AND a Danks would be gravy. I think there is a chance that we could make a blockbuster move like this in the off-season (The two teams I most see us doing this with are Baltimore and Texas), but I'm not sure if Dunn will be involved. I think bringing in Jacoby is a sign that Krivsky wants to keep Dunn, which is fine with me.

BTW, I love bringing Brook in. I think he could turn out to be a diamond in the rough after learning under a great hitting coach like Jaramillo. I also think that he could help Dunn out, I just hope he doesn't tamper with his swing too much.

paulrichjr
11-08-2006, 04:51 PM
I have a thought that isn't anything to do with the author of the threads but this thread seemed to be the place to put it.

My thought is nothing revoltionary but I just can't believe the job that WayneK is faced with this winter. I just don't believe that we have had a winter in quiet some time that compares to this one.

1. He has more positions to fill than at anytime in my recent memory. The only position that is settled in my view is 3b. I don't remember there ever being this much uncertainty. In the past the Reds had too many outfielders for 3 slots. Now they basically have 1 1/2 outfielders because Griffey just can't be counted on for a full season.

2. Krivs has money to spend. When was the last time a GM for the Reds went into the offseason with money to spend? Never!

3. Everyone else has money to spend. Making the cost of options really bad.

4. There are very few attractive free agents out there to spend money on.

5. Ownership really really really wants to win NOW! When has that happened since Marge?

6. My opinion is that WayneK has to be very careful this year because he could quickly make us a really bad team (I know we have been one for awhile but some moves could hurt us for years to come). Trading so much offense and possibly considering trading Dunn has made this team look like a team that is playing for the future instead of for today. I can't see ownership doing that. I'm just not sure that anyone can do the job that he is going to be called upon to do. I personally think he handicapped himself with his big trade because now we are looking for a lot of people this winter instead of just a starter and a reliever.

The next 5 years for this franchise could be resting upon the moves that are made the next 2 months. I bet Wayne is glad he got that extension...

terminator
11-08-2006, 06:51 PM
1. He has more positions to fill than at anytime in my recent memory. The only position that is settled in my view is 3b. I don't remember there ever being this much uncertainty. In the past the Reds had too many outfielders for 3 slots. Now they basically have 1 1/2 outfielders because Griffey just can't be counted on for a full season.


I agree with all of your points -- especially this one. Other than Dunn in LF, Griffey in CF/RF for a half season and EE at 3B, I'm convinced we're average or worse at all of the other positions. Not that I don't like Freel, Denorfia, BP, Hatteberg, and one of our trio of catching options, but I don't feel like there's enough there (hitting and/or defensively) to get to the playoffs. And while we have good pitchers for our #1 and #2 slots, the remaining options are pretty mediocre too. And the bullpen is mediocre. There's just so much to upgrade that I don't see how Krivsky can do it in one year without a huge amount of luck. Of course some of that is his own doing since he didn't like his existing RF and SS options.

RedLegSuperStar
11-08-2006, 09:01 PM
Mario-Rijo.. I love your moves.. except Junior. As much as I want him to win.. I want my favorite player on my favorite team. But enough of that.. It would be a reasonable trade. The only area I would seriously question is all the outfielders.. with Freel, Monroe, DeJesus, Hollandsworth, and either Hopper or Denorfia. Other than that I'd like to see all those moves except Junior.. but like I said that is me...

Mario-Rijo
11-08-2006, 10:19 PM
Mario-Rijo.. I love your moves.. except Junior. As much as I want him to win.. I want my favorite player on my favorite team. But enough of that.. It would be a reasonable trade. The only area I would seriously question is all the outfielders.. with Freel, Monroe, DeJesus, Hollandsworth, and either Hopper or Denorfia. Other than that I'd like to see all those moves except Junior.. but like I said that is me...

Well my thoughts on Jr. I could fill at least a chapter in a book on. I don't hate the man or wish him bad things because he is a really good man off the field. But my issues with him stem from a lot of frustration with not being able to keep him on the field and or a lack of production on the field coupled with the fact that we seem to be a bit hindered with that contract. It's not something he can help and I can appreciate that but bottom line I wanna win and if he is hindering that I would rather be w/o him.

As far as the OF's go, Hollandsworth I could do w/o but he is my answer for our LH bat off the bench although I believe we can do better we could also do worse. I think 5 OF's though is usually the norm and that's what we have because I count Freel as a utility player who will play some IF.

Redsfan08
11-08-2006, 11:27 PM
Mark Texiara:)

schroomytunes
11-09-2006, 01:30 AM
Well here is my take on the offseason. I believe that we will be players in the FA market but it will not be a place where we make a huge splash. I think the areas that need to be addressed are #3 starter/ Bench/ CF/ SS/ Closer. Truly you cannot expect to fill all those areas in FA, its just not possible. So here is my take on those positions:

CF-Needs to be filled via trade- So here is my take on that.
---We make a small blockbuster with the Royals. yes the Royals here's my scenerio:

Reds trade:David Ross, Todd Coffey, Chris Denorfia, and B Symanski

Royals Trade: Mark Redman(LHSP) David Dejesus(CF) and a A prospect

Bench: We sign Wes Helms(1b/of) and David Delucci(OF)

Closer: Sign Danys Baez he has closed before

SS: make a big splash and sign ulio Lugo(SS) as the big name FA.

These are simple moves that greatly improves the team.

BEETTLEBUG
11-09-2006, 01:43 AM
Mark Redman is afree agent so he can't be traded.

schroomytunes
11-09-2006, 04:06 AM
Dang thats right I forgot so here is another Royal scenerio:

Reds trade: David Ross, Todd Coffey, BJ symanski

Royals trade: David Dejesus(CF) and Ambriox Burgos(CL)

Then Sign Tony Armas(SP) as the #3 guy in the rotation