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K-GAR
11-03-2006, 11:16 AM
Peter Gammons was on mike and mike this morning saying he think the jays will put him on the market at the winter meetings, my question is what would it take to get him........

the good - 28 years old, 30 hrs, 100 rbi's, 280+ BA consistently every year, gold glove caliber defense in CF

the bad - he's not a pitcher.

BRM
11-03-2006, 11:16 AM
Peter Gammons was on mike and mike this morning saying he think the jays will put him on the market at the winter meetings, my question is what would it take to get him........

the good - 28 years old, 30 hrs, 100 rbi's, 280+ BA consistently every year, gold glove caliber defense in CF

the bad - he's not a pitcher.

He's not a pitcher but he'd certainly help the pitching staff. The Reds desperately need an upgrade in CF.

RedsManRick
11-03-2006, 11:49 AM
Based off of last year's performance, and judging by the talent in the pipeline, pitching is no longer THE problem in Cincy. Unlike a few years ago when we could score 850 but allowed 900, we're a more balanced squad. I'm quite curious what the asking price would be.

Falls City Beer
11-03-2006, 11:51 AM
Based off of last year's performance, and judging by the talent in the pipeline, pitching is no longer THE problem in Cincy. .

Don't kid yourself.

My guess is that the only player the MLB Reds see from this "bumper crop of young pitching studs" is Jay Bruce.

Yeah, the one who plays OF.

NJReds
11-03-2006, 12:07 PM
Don't kid yourself.

My guess is that the only player the MLB Reds see from this "bumper crop of young pitching studs" is Jay Bruce.

Yeah, the one who plays OF.


You think Bailey will flame out before he reaches the majors? Any reason, other than he's not a Cardinal? ;)

Highlifeman21
11-03-2006, 12:08 PM
See this thread.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51702

schroomytunes
11-03-2006, 01:16 PM
I would offer the Blue jays this package.

Reds trade- Adam Dunn and David Ross

Blue Jays trade- Vernon Wells, Russ Adams, and a low A prospect

The Blue Jays need more power and Dunn provides that, also they desperatly need catching behind Gregg Zaun. For the Reds it allows us to move Griffey to LF, Wells in Cf, and pursue a Rf in the mold of (Delucci, P.Wilson, etc) and still have Deno and Freel for the 4th/5th of spots. Adams than becomes the SS and will platoon with Castro. Then we are able to spend what available $$$ we have on a closer, and #3 starter.Thoughts?

flyer85
11-03-2006, 01:19 PM
The Reds don't have enough to acquire Wells unless they are willing to deal top prospects. Why would the Jays want to swap one poential free agent for another?

Patrick Bateman
11-03-2006, 02:11 PM
Peter Gammons was on mike and mike this morning saying he think the jays will put him on the market at the winter meetings, my question is what would it take to get him........



Probably Homer Bailey and another valuable player like Brandon Phillips.

Wells would be nice to have, but the Reds can't afford to trade what few young talent we have for what is realistically a 1 year rental.

Falls City Beer
11-03-2006, 02:16 PM
You think Bailey will flame out before he reaches the majors?

Or stink up the joint when he gets there. A million things can wrong.

Far fewer things can come unglued with a MLB performer. It's all about bringing something resembling stability to the franchise.

Sitting and waiting for Bailey to show up isn't the way to lay the foundation, IMO, unless other teams are unwilling to give up what you want for him. In that case, keep him.

NJReds
11-03-2006, 02:30 PM
Or stink up the joint when he gets there. A million things can wrong.

Far fewer things can come unglued with a MLB performer. It's all about bringing something resembling stability to the franchise.

Sitting and waiting for Bailey to show up isn't the way to lay the foundation, IMO, unless other teams are unwilling to give up what you want for him. In that case, keep him.

As long as it's not a "Kazmir for Zambrano" type swap...

Frankly, I wouldn't do an A's "Bonderman for Lilly" deal, either.

TC81190
11-03-2006, 06:40 PM
Or stink up the joint when he gets there. A million things can wrong.

Far fewer things can come unglued with a MLB performer. It's all about bringing something resembling stability to the franchise.

Sitting and waiting for Bailey to show up isn't the way to lay the foundation, IMO, unless other teams are unwilling to give up what you want for him. In that case, keep him.

Using your logic, current MLB pitchers just kinda showed up and were never in Bailey's position, then?

Falls City Beer
11-03-2006, 07:10 PM
Using your logic, current MLB pitchers just kinda showed up and were never in Bailey's position, then?

Not sure how you get that from what I'm saying.....

Patrick Bateman
11-03-2006, 07:31 PM
Using your logic, current MLB pitchers just kinda showed up and were never in Bailey's position, then?

That's not what FCB said at all.

All he's saying is that every pitching prospect is really a suspect. An established pitcher like Oswalt is much more of a guarantee than Bailey. Bailey is a top prospect, but he's very far from being a sure fire ace.

TC81190
11-04-2006, 01:01 AM
That's not what FCB said at all.

All he's saying is that every pitching prospect is really a suspect. An established pitcher like Oswalt is much more of a guarantee than Bailey. Bailey is a top prospect, but he's very far from being a sure fire ace.


Yeah, but we do have a Bailey, and we don't have an Oswalt. I'd stick with our guns, I'm not sure where you guys think we can procure a Roy Oswalt from.

Patrick Bateman
11-04-2006, 01:28 AM
Yeah, but we do have a Bailey, and we don't have an Oswalt. I'd stick with our guns, I'm not sure where you guys think we can procure a Roy Oswalt from.

The point is, Bailey should be discussed in trades for the right offer. To say he's "untouchable" is not a good move if you can get a good established pitcher that's more of a guarantee for the future. Generally speaking, it would not be a wise move to trade Bailey.

Jpup
11-04-2006, 04:57 AM
The point is, Bailey should be discussed in trades for the right offer. To say he's "untouchable" is not a good move if you can get a good established pitcher that's more of a guarantee for the future. Generally speaking, it would not be a wise move to trade Bailey.

no it wouldn't, not for the kind of return the Reds usually receive.

puca
11-04-2006, 10:29 AM
I posted this in another thread, but here is a list of 'established' young major league pitchers from 2001. Admitedly I didn't spend much time researching, and, I just looked at the pitchers 28 and younger in 2001 that showed pitched enough innings and showed up on the ERA, H/IP or K/IP leader boards for 2001.

Joe Mays, Freddy Garcia, Matt Morris, Kerry Wood, Chan Ho Park, Mark Buerle, CC Sabathia, Randy Wolfe, Javier Vazquez

Maybe further examination of their numbers would have elimited some of the bad bets from this bunch, but it looks like it is hit-or-miss even with young 'established' pitchers. By the way check out the season Joe Mays had in 2001. Yes, that Joe Mays.

The other problem with these 'established' young pitchers is they are either already highly compensated or just about to be. So maybe the odds are better, but it is way more expensive to get in the game. And as we all know, losing a bet on a 8 million dollar a year pitcher can hurt a mid-level team for years.

I would trade Homer Bailey for the right return, but that return would be so large that it would probably never be met. And at the same time I would need to be reasonably sure I could reconfigure this teams defense while at the same time rebuilding the offense.

Falls City Beer
11-04-2006, 10:34 AM
I posted this in another thread, but here is a list of 'established' young major league pitchers from 2001. Admitedly I didn't spend much time researching, and, I just looked at the pitchers 28 and younger in 2001 that showed pitched enough innings and showed up on the ERA, H/IP or K/IP leader boards for 2001.

Joe Mays, Freddy Garcia, Matt Morris, Kerry Wood, Chan Ho Park, Mark Buerle, CC Sabathia, Randy Wolfe, Javier Vazquez

Maybe further examination of their numbers would have elimited some of the bad bets from this bunch, but it looks like it is hit-or-miss even with young 'established' pitchers. By the way check out the season Joe Mays had in 2001. Yes, that Joe Mays.

The other problem with these 'established' young pitchers is they are either already highly compensated or just about to be. So maybe the odds are better, but it is way more expensive to get in the game. And as we all know, losing a bet on a 8 million dollar a year pitcher can hurt a mid-level team for years.

I would trade Homer Bailey for the right return, but that return would be so large that it would probably never be met. And at the same time I would need to be reasonably sure I could reconfigure this teams defense while at the same time rebuilding the offense.

Outside of Sabathia all those you listed above are pushing thirty or are sitting right at thirty. That's not the demographic I'm looking at.

It's not necessarily disastrous to hold on to Bailey, but I think it should be said that the odds of Bailey achieving even the success of a Matt Morris at the MLB level is probably no better than about 5%. Particularly when you consider the stewardship that he'd be learning under at the MLB level: Narron and his goons, plus the dreadful run support he'll be getting from his offense.

puca
11-04-2006, 10:52 AM
Outside of Sabathia all those you listed above are pushing thirty or are sitting right at thirty. That's not the demographic I'm looking at.

It's not necessarily disastrous to hold on to Bailey, but I think it should be said that the odds of Bailey achieving even the success of a Matt Morris at the MLB level is probably no better than about 5%. Particularly when you consider the stewardship that he'd be learning under at the MLB level: Narron and his goons, plus the dreadful run support he'll be getting from his offense.

They weren't in 2001. In 2001 that group represented the young, under 28 years old pitchers, coming off a successful full major league season. My point is that young 'established' pitchers today are not guaranteed to continue that success. And if you trade for them now you have already missed out on their cheap years, so in effect, chances are you are paying market price salary-wise for a middle of the rotation pitcher. And for that you are giving up your best chance of having an above average young pitcher through his 'cheap' years. For a mid-salary team to succeed they have to do it with strong performances from 'under compensated' players (relatively speaking). Established major league pitchers rarely fall into that category and they are far from a sure thing themselves.

mth123
11-04-2006, 11:02 AM
If the debate is trading Bailey for Vernon Wells, I'd do that one. I'm not really for trading Bailey, but getting established centerpieces for potential centerpieces seems like a good idea. The deal would have to include a 5 year deal for Wells to play CF in Cincy and I wouldn't want the Reds to include more unless the Jays do as well.

I don't think Toronto would do it. Same way I wouldn't trade Dunn for say Phillip Hughes.

Falls City Beer
11-04-2006, 11:06 AM
They weren't in 2001. In 2001 that group represented the young, under 28 years old pitchers, coming off a successful full major league season. My point is that young 'established' pitchers today are not guaranteed to continue that success. And if you trade for them now you have already missed out on their cheap years, so in effect, chances are you are paying market price salary-wise for a middle of the rotation pitcher. And for that you are giving up your best chance of having an above average young pitcher through his 'cheap' years. For a mid-salary team to succeed they have to do it with strong performances from 'under compensated' players (relatively speaking). Established major league pitchers rarely fall into that category and they are far from a sure thing themselves.

So why not target second year pitchers who might have taken a few lumps in their rookie year but still profile nicely?

Most on here don't want to see Bailey pitch a MLB inning till 2008, which means spending 2007 in the minors, where a number of things could go wrong: he doesn't make the successful transition to AAA (thus deflating his value as a prospect), he gets injured (thus killing his value altogether both as a potential player for the Reds or a prospect).

Barry Larkin11 brought up Correia or what about Matt Cain? Guys we know CAN perform at the MLB level.

Really, what I'm saying is: why not trade a 5% chance for a 25% chance of sustaining MLB success if possible? Right now, Bailey's light year's away from impacting the MLB product.

paulrichjr
11-05-2006, 12:40 AM
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter#20061103
Top 10 most popular trade namesposted: Friday, November 3, 2006 | Print Entry

This is the time when general managers and their staffs are the most creative, before the realities of ownership, agents and contracts step in. Probably the most creative idea of the 2006 season came from within the walls of the Angels' offices -- Ervin Santana for Carl Crawford -- and it never got close to being finished.
The Delino DeShields-Pedro Martinez deals are great in concept. So was Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Ideas and realities too often clash, and crash.

Thus, it is time to look at the 10 names most often mentioned as trade fodder.

1. Alex Rodriguez
He has been blamed for everything but the John Kerry joke since the beginning of the postseason, but he and Scott Boras have stated that he will not run away from the heat. Brian Cashman will explore the market and certainly will get substantial offers, but he has made it clear he isn't trying to run Rodriguez out of town. This may go on for a long time, but with all Boras has at stake in his relationahip with the Yankees and A-Rod's concern about public perception, it makes more sense to stay in New York than go play shortstop for what would be his fourth team. STAYS

2. Dontrelle Willis
There may never come a time when the Marlins could get as much for their flamboyant left-hander, and they could fill their needs in center field and the bullpen by putting him on the market. But the feeling in the Marlins' organization is that they need Willis as a safety net for all their other young starters and as a reason for their fan base to hold on while Jeffrey Loria tries to work out a ballpark deal. This could change, but right now the Marlins plan to hold onto Willis and make a run next season at their third championship in 11 years. STAYS

3. Gary Sheffield
Cashman already has at least one valid offer, and while Sheff has threatened to raise Cain if he is traded without a big extension, several GMs ask, "What's he going to do -- not play and collect his money?" Any transaction will be complicated, given Sheff's threats and the likelihood the Yankees will have to eat some money, but he is still a very dangerous corner bat. He gets TRADED

4. Manny Ramirez
The Red Sox don't believe they can get enough to deal L'Enfant terrible. They scored the fourth fewest runs in the league in the second half, and want another bat for the fifth hole behind Ramirez (Jim Edmonds would be perfect, but the feeling is that the Cardinals will pick up his option since it's essentially for $7M-$10M with a $3M buyout. Manny may want to leave, but unless the Mets get very creative, he STAYS.

5. Andruw Jones
Nearly half the Braves' payroll is wrapped up in Andruw, Chipper Jones and John Smoltz. Andruw is a free agent at the end of the 2007 season. But the cost of what the Braves would need in a trade and what Boras would need to not go into next fall's free agent market makes him extremely expensive. STAYS

6. Carl Crawford
The Rays have to sort out all their outfielders, and part of that decision is whether or B.J. Upton is an outfielder. They have Evan Longoria to play third down the road, and likely will stick with Ben Zobrist and, eventually, Reid Brignac at short. So unless they can get half a pitching staff, they will keep Crawford, Rocco Baldelli and Delmon Young and let the other pieces await placement. Upton is very important. Crawford STAYS. Upton may get another chance at third. In time, one of them will go.

7. Vernon Wells
Make no mistake: The Jays don't want to trade a center fielder with an .899 OPS, 32 homers, a Gold Glove and a character that is responsible and accountable, not when he doesn't turn 28 until Dec. 8. But J.P. Ricciardi has said that the Jays cannot pay Beltran money ($16.4M AAV), and indicates that if he cannot make headway on a contract extension after 2007, he will explore deals at the winter meetings rather than sit and wait for draft picks. Toronto is looking to keep Aaron Hill at short if Boston blows them out on Julio Lugo and will look at second basemen, a starting pitcher and bullpen help, and act decisively on Wells. It's hard to imagine him taking the Toronto discount and accepting less-than-Beltran money, so don't be surprised if one of the game's best players is TRADED.
8. Miguel Tejada
The Orioles would have moved him at the end of July had the Angels been more aggressive, but now the Angels can sign free agents and not have to give up Santana, Erick Aybar and others. The O's don't see any other home for Tejada, so they will go into the GM meetings looking for another starter, a right fielder and youth with the belief that Tejada STAYS.

9. Todd Helton
Healthy, he is still a great player and better person. But the back is an issue, and look at the OBP/SLG numbers the last three years: .469/.620, .445/.534, .404/.476. "The Rockies had a deal for him at the trading deadline but couldn't work out the contract," says one GM. Helton is owed more than $90M over the next five years, and the Rocks would love to move much of that despite the fact that Helton has been a leader in their rebuilding process. Robinson Cano's OPS was 10 points higher. STAYS

10. Pat Burrell
He just turned 30, and he's averaged 28 homers and 99 RBI the last three years. If the Phillies really want Alfonso Soriano, they will eat some of Burrell's contract, which adds up to $27.5M the next two years. His problems with right-handed pitchers-- .244, .837 OPS this last year, .256, .837 the three previous seasons -- scares teams, and there is debate about where he plays. "He's nowhere near as bad as he's made out to be," says an AL GM. He'll help someone, with the Giants being the early rumor. TRADED



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for the major free agents, the feeling throughout the industry is that Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee are all looking for Beltran money; considering how much cash there is throughout the industry and how few free agents are in the market, who can blame them?

Lee is a pure bat, but how much longer he can play the outfield is subject to question. He has averaged 33 homers the last four seasons, but has never had a .900 OPS once in his entire career. In his free agent year, his .895 OPS was lower than that of Ray Durham.

At 28, Ramirez likely will get close to Beltran money, and if he gets it elsewhere, this will rank as a major Cub mistake considering that they could have easily extended the deal in midseason. Ramirez reportedly told Jim Hendry that he would stay, but if the Angels -- or someone else -- jump in, he could well move on. In the Cubs' defense -- where was Ramirez to put the team on his back like a $16M player when Derrek Lee went down?

Daisuke Matsuzaka? This whole posting process is like sailing in the fog. The Yankees are the favorites, but no one knows. Talk about the possibility of corruption. Then you get the right to deal with Boras, and he may stick to a three-year deal without the retention power of arbitration.


Jason Schmidt? Ned Colletti and the Dodgers are looking at pitching. Look for them to sign Schmidt and re-sign Greg Maddux. The Dodgers believe Maddux had a huge influence on several young players like Russell Martin, but none more so than Derek Lowe, who was 8-1, 2.37 after Aug. 1.


Barry Zito? The Mets, unless they spend it all on Matsuzaka. Since pitching coach Rick Peterson left for New York after the 2003 season, Zito's ERA has gone from 3.12 with Peterson to 4.05 without him. The National League would be a good change for Zito. The Mets are a very good team.


Sleeper? Justin Speier. The free-agent reliever had a 2.98 ERA and a 55-21 SO-BB ratio in 51 1/3 innings for Toronto. With a strong split against lefties (.183 BAA, .609 OPS), he could step in and close for a team with a bullpen in transition like the Indians, Red Sox (until Craig Hansen is ready), Diamondbacks or Marlins.

Two guys who are going to make a lot more money than you think are Vicente Padilla and Gil Meche.

Will M
11-05-2006, 01:00 AM
OK he has a bad contract ( 2 more years @ $13.5M/year ) but he is not a bad player.
His #s look a lot like Dunn's ( low average, high obp, power, weAK defense ).

The phils have been trying to trade him ( held up by his ability to veto any trade ) for a while. they are willing to eat part of his salary.
this is a move ( trying to trade him ) i don't understand considering they are not a poor team. Burrell behind Utley & Howard is a nasty 3/4/5 heart of the order.

My idea:
Trade Larue for Burrell then trade Dunn for pitching/shortstop. :)

Redsfan08
11-05-2006, 02:05 AM
Dunn and Hopper could that work

mth123
11-05-2006, 05:32 AM
OK he has a bad contract ( 2 more years @ $13.5M/year ) but he is not a bad player.
His #s look a lot like Dunn's ( low average, high obp, power, weAK defense ).

The phils have been trying to trade him ( held up by his ability to veto any trade ) for a while. they are willing to eat part of his salary.
this is a move ( trying to trade him ) i don't understand considering they are not a poor team. Burrell behind Utley & Howard is a nasty 3/4/5 heart of the order.

My idea:
Trade Larue for Burrell then trade Dunn for pitching/shortstop. :)

Or just Larue for Burrell and Burrell plays 1B against LH and most RH. Hat can play against Oswalt, Smoltz, Schmidt, Carpenter and a few other select RH studs. Burrell can play against run of the mill RH. That should allow enough playing time for Burrell to be considered an every day player, boost Burrells numbers against RH and add power and some balance in 2007. Next offseason, when a year of that contract is all that is left (and his numbers against RH look better because he isn't paying against the studs), flip him for something useful and hand 1B to Votto.

Phillies may want more than Larue.

Highlifeman21
11-05-2006, 09:00 AM
If some fans hate Adam Dunn and what he offers the Reds, those same fans and new fans will hate Pat Burrell even more.

They are both below average defensively.

They both strikeout in truckloads.

They both hit for low average.

Burrell makes more money.



Keep what we have, the younger better Adam Dunn.

Now, if the Broad Street Babies wanted to talk Burrell for LaRue, I'd gladly take on Burrell's contract over LaRue's b/c Burrell's bat trumps LaRue's across the board.

Will M
11-05-2006, 10:07 AM
" Or just Larue for Burrell and Burrell plays 1B against LH and most RH. Hat can play against Oswalt, Smoltz, Schmidt, Carpenter and a few other select RH studs. Burrell can play against run of the mill RH. That should allow enough playing time for Burrell to be considered an every day player, boost Burrells numbers against RH and add power and some balance in 2007. Next offseason, when a year of that contract is all that is left (and his numbers against RH look better because he isn't paying against the studs), flip him for something useful and hand 1B to Votto. "

great idea.

Or if Dunn does go downhill ( as some posters suggest he might ) keep Burrell and move him to LF in 2008.



" Phillies may want more than Larue. "

I'm not sure. They seem to want him out of town last week.
They seem to want to hand him to any team will take his contract ( that he will agree to play for ).
I believe they want him gone so they can sign Soriano.

- Will

Highlifeman21
11-05-2006, 10:16 AM
" Or just Larue for Burrell and Burrell plays 1B against LH and most RH. Hat can play against Oswalt, Smoltz, Schmidt, Carpenter and a few other select RH studs. Burrell can play against run of the mill RH. That should allow enough playing time for Burrell to be considered an every day player, boost Burrells numbers against RH and add power and some balance in 2007. Next offseason, when a year of that contract is all that is left (and his numbers against RH look better because he isn't paying against the studs), flip him for something useful and hand 1B to Votto. "

great idea.

Or if Dunn does go downhill ( as some posters suggest he might ) keep Burrell and move him to LF in 2008.



" Phillies may want more than Larue. "

I'm not sure. They seem to want him out of town last week.
They seem to want to hand him to any team will take his contract ( that he will agree to play for ).
I believe they want him gone so they can sign Soriano.

- Will

I don't remember how the Lieberthal contract extension was/is going, and Coste is clearly not the solution for the Phillies, so LaRue may be the perfect option for them.

Burrell's bat would clearly be an upgrade for our lineup, but I'm not sure that he would be too apt to a platoon situation at 1B, and I don't even remotely like the idea of watching Burrell patrol RF.

I doubt the Phillies would give us any pitching for LaRue, especially starting pitching, but they do have two interesting bullpen arms named Geoff Geary and Fabio Castro I wouldn't mind seeing as Reds. I know that doesn't solve our starting woes, but more and better bullpen options I think are a start in the right direction.

blumj
11-05-2006, 10:16 AM
Can Burrell actually play 1st base? I know he used to, but does anyone know if he was any good at it? Even if he was, would he still be years later?

Tom Servo
11-05-2006, 10:54 AM
Burrell had 3 more RBI's in nearly 100 less at-bats than Dunn this year, and with that had a higher OBP. He played 58 games at first base in 2000 and commited 6 errors, and hasn't played a game at 1B since.

Redsfan08
11-05-2006, 12:12 PM
Come on Krivsky work your magic

red-in-la
11-05-2006, 04:34 PM
If the debate is trading Bailey for Vernon Wells, I'd do that one. I'm not really for trading Bailey, but getting established centerpieces for potential centerpieces seems like a good idea. The deal would have to include a 5 year deal for Wells to play CF in Cincy and I wouldn't want the Reds to include more unless the Jays do as well.

I don't think Toronto would do it. Same way I wouldn't trade Dunn for say Phillip Hughes.

Then you are flying in the face of the successful plan for low to mid-market teams.

Teams that have had a measure of success, it seems to me, go for young pitching and find OF spare parts where ever they can in the middle to bottom of the FA market.

The Reds don't need Wells, they need a FA or low cost trade RF in the mold of Juan Encarncion. Actually, they need a left handed CF who could split time with Freel.....but they need to come by him cheaply and not sacrifice any pitching prospects for him.

mth123
11-05-2006, 07:21 PM
I don't remember how the Lieberthal contract extension was/is going, and Coste is clearly not the solution for the Phillies, so LaRue may be the perfect option for them.

Burrell's bat would clearly be an upgrade for our lineup, but I'm not sure that he would be too apt to a platoon situation at 1B, and I don't even remotely like the idea of watching Burrell patrol RF.

I doubt the Phillies would give us any pitching for LaRue, especially starting pitching, but they do have two interesting bullpen arms named Geoff Geary and Fabio Castro I wouldn't mind seeing as Reds. I know that doesn't solve our starting woes, but more and better bullpen options I think are a start in the right direction.

Excellent suggestion. I'd do Larue for Geary and Castro tomorrow (or now actually).

I think these kind of low key trades are exactly the kind Krivsky should focus on. I chime in on the big stuff but think the little stuff is where its at this offseason. A lot of depth in the pen if all the AA guys who had good years in 2006 are considered. I'm sure a few could be packaged in similar deals to this suggestion to fill other holes.

mth123
11-05-2006, 07:37 PM
Then you are flying in the face of the successful plan for low to mid-market teams.

Teams that have had a measure of success, it seems to me, go for young pitching and find OF spare parts where ever they can in the middle to bottom of the FA market.

The Reds don't need Wells, they need a FA or low cost trade RF in the mold of Juan Encarncion. Actually, they need a left handed CF who could split time with Freel.....but they need to come by him cheaply and not sacrifice any pitching prospects for him.

I agree in general but Wells in particular is a proven game changer. I wouldn't pay for Juan Encarnacion or Jeromy Burnitz or Trot Nixon with talent or any significant cash, but game changers should be gathered at any position where you can find them. Bailey could end-up like Ben McDonald or some other similarly hyped prospect. I wouldn't trade him in too many deals, but for an established lead pipe cinch game changer in a year where the team says it will add payroll, yes.

There are exceptions due to contracts or players stating desire to leave, but I wouldn't trade established game changers (like Wells or Dunn) for potential ones (like Bailey or Hughes) and I wouldn't trade potential game changers (like Bailey or Hughes) for role players or potential role players (like Edgar Renteria, Erick Aybar or Fernando Rodney for example).

Each deal of course needs to be evaluated on its own, but this is a lot of the underlying logic IMO.

Will M
11-05-2006, 09:36 PM
having watched the Cards & Astros compete year after year recently i developed a theory:

A team like the Reds needs 6 impact players. Three hitters, two starting pitchers and a closer. We then fill in the rest of the team with young players we develop through the farm system, cheap veterans & cheap free agents.

Scott Hatteberg is a nice player to have on your team ( for the right price ) but he is NOT going to get you to the world series. Players like Pujols, Rolen, pre 2006 Edmonds, Carpenter, Mulder ( when healthy ), Bagwell ( when he was healthy ), Berkman, Oswalt, Pettite, Clemens, etc kept the Cards & Astros in the playoff hunt year after year.

I agree with mth123's theory that even the future Hall of Famer :) Homer Bailey is tradable if he were to get you an impact player like Vernon Wells.

Right now I count the Reds impact players and see:
Harang
Maybe Arroyo ( we will see if he can duplicate 2006 )
Probably EE. He has the potential.
Maybe Bailey. This is way way too soon to tell.

Griffey in the past was an impact player but not now.
IMO Dunn does NOT fall into the impact player category. He is a support player.
Guys like Freel, Phillips, Coffey, Bray might be nice players but they are not impact players.

- Will

Spitball
11-05-2006, 11:38 PM
Reggie Sanders has maybe played in more playoff games than Bonds, Griffey, Sosa, Guerrero, and Wells combined. Why? Because championship teams don't build around outfielders. They have good outfielders, but they sink their money into pitching. Star outfielders take away budget from pitching. The Reds need offense and outfield defense. However, they need to spend money on pitching first, then see what is left for outfielders. Acquiring Vernon Wells before pitching would be the type of move that has kept the Orioles as big spending-big losing type team.