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View Full Version : What about JR in 2007?



red-in-la
11-04-2006, 04:02 PM
Maybe this is already being discussed somewhere....so maybe this thread can be merged or closed....if not, I am looking for some insight as to how you guys think JR will be "handled" in 2007?

My thinking is that he is no longer the leader of the middle of the order kinda guy....and in the same mold as Barry Larkin, has reached a point of negative impact.....both on defense and as a number 3 hitter.

Also, like Larkin, it appears that Narron or whoever has no heart for telling JR he is a LF who hits maybe 6th in the order.

So, based on all those insightful stats (I am serious, this is not sarcasm), where does JR best fit for the Reds in 2007?

mth123
11-04-2006, 04:07 PM
As currently constructed, in RF hitting 5th. Behind Dunn and EE.

RedLegSuperStar
11-04-2006, 04:58 PM
As currently constructed, in RF hitting 5th. Behind Dunn and EE.

That works.. But then you will still have people complain about his numbers even with him dropped in the line-up. People will expect him to hit 30+ HR's and drive in 100 runs no matter where he bats.

Always Red
11-04-2006, 05:22 PM
If you bat 5th in any major league lineup, you are pretty much expected to hit 30 HR and knock in 100, IMO.

mth123
11-04-2006, 05:34 PM
If you bat 5th in any major league lineup, you are pretty much expected to hit 30 HR and knock in 100, IMO.

Griffey probably won't play enough to hit 30 HR anymore. But he still slugged ok in 2006 and was on that type of rate for the time he was in there. His problem was OBP. I would prefer he bat 6th, but the line-up is only 5 deep and that assumes you can find some one to hit second. Deno/Freel lead-off, Dunn, EE and Griffey. Maybe if Freel plays 2B with Phillips at SS you could go Freel, Deno, Dunn, EE and Griffey. Then the black holes appear. Remember, I said "as currently constructed."

redsupport
11-04-2006, 05:50 PM
I hope he bats third, for another team

Krusty
11-04-2006, 06:30 PM
If you can get 100+ games out of him, call it a success.

PuffyPig
11-04-2006, 07:53 PM
If you bat 5th in any major league lineup, you are pretty much expected to hit 30 HR and knock in 100, IMO.


10 players in the NL hit 30 HR's and drove in 100 runs or more.

Only 2 teams had 2 players do it, Phillie and NYM, and none of those players hit 5th.

I don't think any of the 10 players, in fact, hit 5th.

Jpup
11-04-2006, 07:53 PM
trade him to the AL.

Spring~Fields
11-04-2006, 10:24 PM
I wish Junior would consider approaching Krivsky and Narron himself during the winter and request the move to make it easier for all concerned.

George Foster
11-05-2006, 02:23 AM
where does JR best fit for the Reds in 2007?

His best fit would be in the American League. Missing the most important month of the season with a dislocated toe was the last staw for me.

I remember Curt Schilling pitching in the World Series with blood seeping through his sock for God's sake. This year Randy Johnson had an epidural on his back because of a hurniated(sp?) disc to pitch. I'm done with Jr.:thumbdown

Jr's Boy
11-05-2006, 03:53 AM
His best fit would be in the American League. Missing the most important month of the season with a dislocated toe was the last staw for me.

I remember Curt Schilling pitching in the World Series with blood seeping through his sock for God's sake. This year Randy Johnson had an epidural on his back because of a hurniated(sp?) disc to pitch. I'm done with Jr.:thumbdown



Pitcher to Outfielder,apples and oranges.

mth123
11-05-2006, 06:45 AM
I wish Junior would consider approaching Krivsky and Narron himself during the winter and request the move to make it easier for all concerned.

This would be a dream come true. If he were so inclined, he would have probably done it after the Kearns trade. RF was open and waiting and Deno was a highly regarded defensive CF. JR still thinks he can play CF like it was 1995. Until he realizes this its a problem. He won't be open to a move IMO. It isn't going to be as easy as just ordering him out of CF as many have said. Short of acquiring an all star that JR views as a better option, this will not be concluded w/o some repercussions IMO.

An unhappy JR would hurt the Reds in the eyes of other players around baseball. The premium the Reds need to pay for free agents will probably go higher w/o a peaceful conclusion. Its already high enough that the Reds probably shouldn't participate except as bottom feeders for specific role players.

GAC
11-05-2006, 08:11 AM
This would be a dream come true. If he were so inclined, he would have probably done it after the Kearns trade. RF was open and waiting and Deno was a highly regarded defensive CF. JR still thinks he can play CF like it was 1995. Until he realizes this its a problem. He won't be open to a move IMO. It isn't going to be as easy as just ordering him out of CF as many have said. Short of acquiring an all star that JR views as a better option, this will not be concluded w/o some repercussions IMO.

Yesterday, on another thread, I stated that this management needs to get the cahonies to confront Jr. I want to clarify that by saying I didn't necessarily mean to order him. That would be stupid. For what he has done for the game he deserves R-E-S-P-E-C-T. So they need to sit down with Jr and in a diplomatic and common sense approach do so.

Last season Jr said no one has ever approached him on the subject of moving from CF. And the reason why, and I believe it is a very legit point, is that there is no one on this roster that can play CF on a everyday basis as well as he can.

And I think when Jr said that he was looking comprehensively overall, and not simply from a defensive standpoint only (as many of us are).

Unless someone wants to send to him, and translate, the Baseball Prospectus defensive correlations that show he is a terrible defensive CFer. ;)

Why wouldn't he make that statement when the candidate being held out to replace him (Deno) hasn't really proven anything on the ML level (nothing to brag about), and is risk and/or crap shoot to many.

So I understand Jr's position. That is your only candidate?

All players deal with the issue of pride. Pride in a good sense. And for a veteran player who has accomplished as much as a Jr, then it makes it even harder. They see it as a demotion, and forcing them to see the "writing on the wall" that they don't want to come to terms with. A dealing with the inevitable.

But it is an "inevitable", for the good of the team, that must be dealt with in a respectful and diplomatic way.

But they MUST sit down with Jr, in that sense, present their case in a way that it is for the overall good of the team, while helping to maximize/benefit from his abilities and keep him in that lineup as much as possible.

He has to be made to see that.

If this FO cannot do that, with any player, then we all have a problem.

But IMHO, trying to get Jr out of CF is very similar to trying to get Larkin off of SS. It took his contract expiring to do so, and then he left with bad feelings. Could very well be the same travelled path with Jr. ;)

Highlifeman21
11-05-2006, 10:04 AM
Maybe this is wrong of me, and completely out of line, so for that I apologize now, but wouldn't Griffey suffering some kind of lengthy trip to the DL injury in ST kind of solve our CF problem?

I know it's bad to root for injury, but if he physically can't play and is on at least the 15 day DL or the 60 day DL out of ST, then that has to force Narron's hand to give the keys to the CF car to Denorfia.

vaticanplum
11-05-2006, 02:08 PM
Maybe this is wrong of me, and completely out of line, so for that I apologize now, but wouldn't Griffey suffering some kind of lengthy trip to the DL injury in ST kind of solve our CF problem?

I know it's bad to root for injury, but if he physically can't play and is on at least the 15 day DL or the 60 day DL out of ST, then that has to force Narron's hand to give the keys to the CF car to Denorfia.

That's really just prolonging the decision and doesn't necessarily lead to a change in mindset. There's a different in the mindset of, "well, we'll do this for now, until..." and "ok, this is what we're going, and this is the team we have to work with for the long-term future." Otherwise I'm willing to bet that when Griffey returns he gets the keys to the car right back because "who knows, he could be better now." I'm a firm believer that it's best to deal with just about every situation head-on. ie. even if Griffey gets injured, deal with it, make the move while he's hurt and tell him how it's going to be.

I think it makes everybody's lives a lot easier if they can agree to the move. If Junior is being so stubborn about it that it really becomes a matter of them telling him he has to do it, so be it. I daresay that the reason this hasn't happened yet is because a) the previous powers-that-be had no backbone, and b) there were no options that really JUMPED OUT as that much better. Neither of these holds true anymore. Plus he's been declining in the field, so this is far more crucial than it was even just two years ago. I think he's a viable part of this team and I think that he can help this team in presence more than he can in a trade. He just needs to switch positions. Period.

Jpup
11-05-2006, 02:29 PM
tell him that he has the 3 options:

1. Go play right field.
2. Go play 1st base.
3. Go play somewhere else.

WMR
11-05-2006, 02:54 PM
I like the Frank Robinson in Washington approach.

Obviously, you try the quiet, behind-doors, respectful approach first. But if that doesn't work, you've GOT to do whatever it takes to get him out of CF.

MUST. MUST. MUST.

redsandrails
11-05-2006, 04:42 PM
As far as the 30 HR, 100 RBI thing... out of the 8 AL teams that finished above .500, 4 had two players do both. And one more narrowly missed it (2 RBI's). The A's (needed like 15 RBI from Swisher...The Tigers had a lot of guys between 20-29 HR but no big 30 HR threats.... The Angels just had Vlad meet that criteria, as they lacked another big bat.

I mean there was a time when Griffey was counted on for not only 40 HR but really somewhere between 45-56. In 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 he met that critera and in 1994 and 2000 he paced it. The only exception was the strike shortened, injury plagued 1995. Here's how many HR Griffey paced over 162 games the past 15 seasons:

1992: 31
1993: 47
1994: 58
1995: 38
1996: 57
1997: 58
1998: 56
1999: 49
2000: 45
2001: 32
2002: 19 (stats based on only 70 games)
2003: 40 (based on only 53 games)
2004: 39
2005: 44
2006: 40

Obviously he's not going to play 162 games if healthy even but 150 or so is realistic. Even factoring the fact he's only going to play 90% of the time or so he'd still have over 680 HR by now. Assuming his numbers would mellow down to about 30-33 HR until the age of 40 and then maybe a year of 15 HR at 41, before retirement, he'd still end up with 827 HR.

The fact is the man can still hit... His injuries hide the fact that he still has power. His 2005 campaign for instance would have been .301, 44, 116 if he had played the entire season. With a .945 OPS as well, that's a solid campaign. Even the .252, 40, 107 this year is not bad at all despite only a .802 OPS. Some change is going to have to be made; Griffey not only is a burden defensively but also the health risks of CF only make it less attractive.

mth123
11-05-2006, 09:06 PM
Maybe this is wrong of me, and completely out of line, so for that I apologize now, but wouldn't Griffey suffering some kind of lengthy trip to the DL injury in ST kind of solve our CF problem?

I know it's bad to root for injury, but if he physically can't play and is on at least the 15 day DL or the 60 day DL out of ST, then that has to force Narron's hand to give the keys to the CF car to Denorfia.

Unique solution, but even in his decline and with his poor OBP (that I'm guessing will improve in 2007), this line-up really needs his slugging. DL would not be a good thing IMO. RF would though.

George Foster
11-05-2006, 11:18 PM
Pitcher to Outfielder,apples and oranges.

ya your right...pitchers don't use there legs or feet when pitching. They stand still and just move their arms.

Rojo
11-07-2006, 01:26 AM
OPS last year: .869 against RHP and .671 ang LHP. Bat him fifth and find a platoon partner.

I'll mention it again, Craig Wilson.

VR
11-07-2006, 01:41 AM
I read somewhere that Griff was working hard on conditioning this offseason, and laying off the weights....which he's hit aggressively the last five years. He's so thick now....it would be nice to see him show up looking more like Deion and less like Kevin Mitchell.

redsupport
11-07-2006, 02:25 AM
oh he has been working hard in the off season since the bronze age, he be in fine shape in december, ready to sustain his first injury around mid March

Always Red
11-07-2006, 03:45 PM
I read somewhere that Griff was working hard on conditioning this offseason, and laying off the weights....which he's hit aggressively the last five years. He's so thick now....it would be nice to see him show up looking more like Deion and less like Kevin Mitchell.

usually "hard conditioning" for Junior means he takes BP for about 6 hours a day.

Most of us middle aged men can't help getting a little umm... "thick." ;)

I don't mind his size, or his lack of speed from his often-surgically corrected wheels at all. Resistance conditioning does help with endurance, and that's what we all want from Junior, for him to be able to play RF for 140 games this year. And if he does bat 5th, I would expect about 30HR and 90 RBI. I think that's a fair expectation from a #5 hitter in the lineup. I know, I know, I've read all the posts above, but 30-90 is a fair expectation for him, if not injured, IMO.:D

mth123
11-07-2006, 09:24 PM
I read somewhere that Griff was working hard on conditioning this offseason, and laying off the weights....which he's hit aggressively the last five years. He's so thick now....it would be nice to see him show up looking more like Deion and less like Kevin Mitchell.

I hadn't heard this but if its true, does anyone think the talk of him not being able to play CF anymore has something to do with his desire to lose the bulk?

At this point its likely too little too late. Guys to play CF we got and even better conditioning won't take those screws out of his leg or change his birth certificate. Time for him to move to RF and provide some power and for him to realize he can still be pretty good even in that role. Griffey was the player of the 90's IMO but the 90's were a long time ago.

Here's to him being in great condition. :beerme:

Here's to not letting it cloud his judgement.:beerme: