PDA

View Full Version : Astros no longer interested in Dunn; Reds interested in Marcus Giles?



OnBaseMachine
11-05-2006, 09:17 AM
I would love to see Marcus Giles roaming around second base for the Reds if the price is right.

Braves' Giles could join his brother in S.D.
Ken Rosenthal / FOXSports.com
Posted: 7 hours ago

The emergence of Padres rookie second baseman Josh Barfield last season seemingly ended the chances of Marcus Giles joining his older brother, Brian, in San Diego.

Not so fast.

The Braves are open to trading Marcus Giles, and the Padres' plan if they acquired the younger Giles would be to play him at third base,
Marcus, 28, would gladly move from second to third if it meant uniting with Brian, 35, a source close to the brothers said.

The Braves, seeking an eighth-inning bridge to closer Bob Wickman, likely are interested in Padres right-handed reliever Scott Linebrink, whom they tried to acquire last summer.

The Indians are another possible suitor for Marcus. The Reds could acquire him and move second baseman Brandon Phillips to shortstop. The Cardinals and Giants are among the other clubs with openings at second.

The problem with obtaining Marcus Giles, especially for budget-minded teams such as the Indians and Reds, is that he's becoming less productive and more expensive.

Marcus Giles struggled when the Braves made him their leadoff hitter last season. Yet, his salary could rise from $3.85 million to the $5.5 million range in his final year of arbitration. And, after next season, he will be a free agent.

The Braves could always decline to offer Giles a contract, but then the team would receive nothing in return. A trade makes more sense, and the Padres represent a logical fit.

Among the Padres' other possibilities at third, free agent Aramis Ramirez might be too expensive, Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura could go to a higher bidder and the White Sox's Joe Crede and the Astros' Morgan Ensberg might be out of reach in trades.

The Braves pursued Linebrink in a proposed deal for third baseman Wilson Betemit last summer. The Padres balked, preferring to keep their bullpen intact, and the Braves traded Betemit to the Dodgers for reliever Danys Baez and infielder Willy Aybar.

If the Braves traded Marcus Giles, Martin Prado, 23, would be one internal option at second. Shortstop Yunel Escobar, who has yet to play above Class AA, might be even more intriguing; he's showing significant offensive progress in the Arizona Fall League.


NO DUNN DEAL

Not long ago, the Astros would have jumped at the chance to acquire Reds left fielder Adam Dunn, who grew up outside of Houston.

No more.

The Astros, while intent on adding a slugger, do not consider Dunn an appealing trade option, a major-league source says.

Dunn led the majors with 194 strikeouts last season. He has hit 40 or more homers in each of the past three seasons, but his on-base/slugging percentage has declined in each of the last two. His defense and conditioning are further concerns, and the long-term presence of Lance Berkman would prevent the Astros from moving Dunn to first base.

The Astros reportedly are one of the teams attempting to trade for the Yankees' Gary Sheffield, but they're more likely to sign a free agent such as Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee.


MULDER: NOT HURTING ON MARKET

Free-agent left-hander Mark Mulder, recovering from shoulder surgery, is drawing interest from multiple clubs, including his most recent team, the World Series champion Cardinals.

If healthy, Mulder, 29, might have joined left-hander Barry Zito and right-hander Jason Schmidt as the jewels of the free-agent class. Instead, teams now view him as an attractive short-term gamble.

Mulder is expected to begin a throwing program in early January and pitch in early March, according to his agent, Gregg Clifton.

Another of Clifton's clients, free-agent outfielder Luis Gonzalez, made news Friday when he had lunch with Indians general manager Mark Shapiro.

The Giants were the first team to call about Gonzalez after he filed for free agency. They will need a new left fielder if they do not re-sign Barry Bonds.

Ken Rosenthal is FOXSports.com's senior baseball writer.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6139030

Krusty
11-05-2006, 09:27 AM
Why trade for Giles when you have free agent infield options in Kennedy, Belliard and Gonzalez?

wheels
11-05-2006, 10:15 AM
Why trade for Giles when you have free agent infield options in Kennedy, Belliard and Gonzalez?

'Cause Giles is better.

cincinnati chili
11-05-2006, 11:26 AM
'Cause Giles is better.

Exactly. Even in his injury plagued '06, Giles was way above average with the bat for 2B's.

Spring~Fields
11-05-2006, 11:31 AM
Who do the Reds have to trade besides Harang and Arroyo? Posters indicate without Dunn the Reds have no offense, so who do they have to trade?

PuffyPig
11-05-2006, 12:03 PM
'Cause Giles is better.


He's better, yes, but pretty expensive to obtain. He's 1 year from FA.

Teams like the Reds don't improve long term by trading away much value for expensive players on the eve of FA, unless it's to make a run right there and now.

Especially players who's salary is increasing and production is decreasing.

Wheelhouse
11-05-2006, 12:10 PM
Not surprising. Did not, in fact, the 'Stros interest in Dunn wane a while back?

redsfanmia
11-05-2006, 12:23 PM
Not surprising. Did not, in fact, the 'Stros interest in Dunn wane a while back?

It probably waned when they realized that he is a one trick pony.

westofyou
11-05-2006, 12:35 PM
It probably waned when they realized that he is a one trick pony.

Yeah, that's it he's a run producer, no place for that in the game.

Chip R
11-05-2006, 12:45 PM
It probably waned when they realized that he is a one trick pony.


More than likely it waned when he signed that multi-year deal with the Reds.

Jpup
11-05-2006, 01:25 PM
Not surprising. Did not, in fact, the 'Stros interest in Dunn wane a while back?

yeah, when Krivsky said no for teh 300th time.

Falls City Beer
11-05-2006, 01:26 PM
I think "longterm" is a myth.

The time is forever "now."

The teams that win believe they'll contend every year.

Kc61
11-05-2006, 02:43 PM
Yeah, that's it he's a run producer, no place for that in the game.

I guess the Astros just don't understand Dunn's value.

westofyou
11-05-2006, 02:47 PM
I guess the Astros just don't understand Dunn's value.
Reds fans don't that's for sure.

The Astros are more likely to pursue a big RH bat then a LH bat, their park is built for RH power and Berkman's power side is LH, a RH bat would look good in the late innings.

But hey I won't let facts get in the way of a good horse whipping.

11BarryLarkin11
11-05-2006, 02:53 PM
I just got the 2007 Bill James Handbook and took a look at the Park Effects for 2004-2006. It lists the Astros home park as the best place for lefthanded homerun hitters. It is 38% easier for lefthanded hitters to hit homers in Houston than in the other parks in the league, which is tops in the NL.

I thought that was interesting, as all you hear about Houston is the leftfield Crawford boxes, but the park actually favors lefthanded power hitters over righthanded power hitters.

I don't know if Houston's lack of interest is just posturing or if they are serious, but Dunn would seem to be an ideal fit for them.

I still say Dunn/Cormier for Ensberg/Everett/Wheeler is a winner all the way around. But, that's just me.

westofyou
11-05-2006, 03:22 PM
I just got the 2007 Bill James Handbook and took a look at the Park Effects for 2004-2006. It lists the Astros home park as the best place for lefthanded homerun hitters. It is 38% easier for lefthanded hitters to hit homers in Houston than in the other parks in the league, which is tops in the NL.

I thought that was interesting, as all you hear about Houston is the leftfield Crawford boxes, but the park actually favors lefthanded power hitters over righthanded power hitters.

I don't know if Houston's lack of interest is just posturing or if they are serious, but Dunn would seem to be an ideal fit for them.

I still say Dunn/Cormier for Ensberg/Everett/Wheeler is a winner all the way around. But, that's just me.

According to the 2006 BJ HB the PE for Minute Maid from 2003-2005 was 77 for LH (HR only)and it was 133 for RH.

However, from 2002-2003 it was 104 LH and 103 RH.

Falls City Beer
11-05-2006, 03:30 PM
I still say Dunn/Cormier for Ensberg/Everett/Wheeler is a winner all the way around. But, that's just me.


My guess is that your deal would be a treading-water deal vis. the run differential. I suspect Ensberg would spend his obligatory 15-30 days on the DL, Everett would be a massive dropoff from anything the Reds ran out there for shortstop (excepting Clayton), and that only Wheeler would represent an appreciable gain over his current prospective replacement on the Reds.

So on balance, I say that whatever would be gained by Wheeler would be lost by the combination of Ensberg minus Dunn and Everett minus Aurilia/Phillips.

11BarryLarkin11
11-05-2006, 04:27 PM
My guess is that your deal would be a treading-water deal vis. the run differential. I suspect Ensberg would spend his obligatory 15-30 days on the DL, Everett would be a massive dropoff from anything the Reds ran out there for shortstop (excepting Clayton), and that only Wheeler would represent an appreciable gain over his current prospective replacement on the Reds.

So on balance, I say that whatever would be gained by Wheeler would be lost by the combination of Ensberg minus Dunn and Everett minus Aurilia/Phillips.

To me, Ensberg replaces most of the lost walks and homers of Dunn. And, Ensberg is an asset defensively, rather than a liability like Dunn. I think Everett's defensive impact would be substantial, even though he brings little to the table offensively. And, Wheeler would be a top notch setup man or possibly a good closer. And, we'd get salary relief out of the deal, which could be used to lock up Harang or bring in additional help via free agency.

redsandrails
11-05-2006, 05:04 PM
WOY, are those numbers you showed just the total #'s by righties and lefties? If that is the case then it still could be LH favorable as there are far more RH hitters than leftys.

11BarryLarkin11
11-05-2006, 05:14 PM
Hmmm, I'll check it again, maybe I misread it. But, it stood out to me because it didn't fit with the impression I had of Minute Maid/Enron.

westofyou
11-05-2006, 05:34 PM
WOY, are those numbers you showed just the total #'s by righties and lefties? If that is the case then it still could be LH favorable as there are far more RH hitters than leftys.

Well, it's an "Index Number" not the total, but they got the total for 2003-2005 from these totals.


2003-2205
LHB - 127 HR's - 77 PE
RHB - 358 HR's - 133 PE

For the GAB in that time it was

LHB - 283 HR's - 117 PE
RHB - 334 HR's - 116 PE

traderumor
11-05-2006, 05:36 PM
I find it kind of funny if the Astros do hold that opinion considering that they have had poor offenses two years running. It would seem to be apparent that they may not know what they are looking for.

redsfanmia
11-05-2006, 06:28 PM
Yeah, that's it he's a run producer, no place for that in the game.

Oh I forgot how many runs Dunn produced down the stretch when the Reds needed him, he produced alot of runs on that dreaded west coast trip.

MartyFan
11-05-2006, 06:28 PM
I think "longterm" is a myth.

The time is forever "now."

The teams that win believe they'll contend every year.

I agree and I think that is the mindset of the Reds FO as well...when Special K was introduced as GM he made it clear they were not looking to ONLY build for the longterm but also for NOW.

westofyou
11-05-2006, 06:45 PM
Oh I forgot how many runs Dunn produced down the stretch when the Reds needed him, he produced alot of runs on that dreaded west coast trip.

Yes, let's just count those... because after all that's the only time he ever played ball for the Reds.

This is what is sad, people micro kicking the most productive offensive player the Reds have had since the work stoppage.

If you look at the RC formula it's a no doubter, when you look at it vs the league average it's even a bigger crime that folks kick him all the time.

BTW that's every Red with 1500 at bats, which is a scant amount if you are worth worrying about.


1995-2006
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB OBA
1 Adam Dunn 1.94 7.11 5.18 2832 .039
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 1.48 6.76 5.28 2466 .018
3 Barry Larkin 1.35 6.56 5.22 4004 .037
4 Reggie Sanders 1.24 6.32 5.08 1564 .023
5 Sean Casey 0.87 6.14 5.27 4007 .028
6 Austin Kearns 0.65 5.80 5.15 1593 .017
7 Willie Greene 0.58 5.68 5.10 1157 .010
8 Dmitri Young 0.51 5.87 5.36 1997 .009
9 Chris Stynes 0.47 5.80 5.33 1038 .013
10 Eddie Taubensee 0.32 5.58 5.26 1920 -.001

But hey if that's not good enough for you let's look at all the players in MLB under the age of 27 in that same time frame. And we'll go top 20, look who is number 10


1995-2006
AGE < 27
AT BATS < 5300
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB OBA
1 Albert Pujols 4.55 9.74 5.18 3489 .078
2 Todd Helton 4.02 9.44 5.41 1781 .064
3 Alex Rodriguez 3.02 8.25 5.23 4328 .040
4 Nomar Garciaparra 3.00 8.30 5.30 2436 .038
5 Bobby Abreu 2.89 8.28 5.40 1829 .067
6 Manny Ramirez 2.81 8.07 5.26 2166 .054
7 Vladimir Guerrero 2.59 7.87 5.28 3369 .042
8 Miguel Cabrera 2.03 7.24 5.21 2106 .043
9 Chipper Jones 1.99 7.08 5.08 2320 .041
10 Adam Dunn 1.94 7.11 5.18 2832 .039
11 Jason Kendall 1.89 7.17 5.28 2294 .058
12 Mark Teixeira 1.88 6.95 5.07 2346 .028
13 Scott Rolen 1.87 7.16 5.29 2750 .032
14 Derek Jeter 1.73 7.07 5.34 3130 .049
15 Sean Casey 1.35 6.76 5.41 1919 .036
16 Shawn Green 1.25 6.54 5.29 2474 .003
17 Carlos Beltran 1.15 6.30 5.15 2868 .011
18 Eric Chavez 1.13 6.28 5.15 3102 .016
19 Troy Glaus 1.01 6.19 5.18 2755 .017
20 Edgardo Alfonzo 0.95 6.24 5.29 2950 .025

But hey if that's not enough to convince you that this one trick pony is better then you give him credit for let's look at some rate stats and counting stats from the past 11 Reds seasons and see who tops the career total lists.



BPA BPA AB
1 Adam Dunn .596 2832
2 Reggie Sanders .567 1564
3 Ken Griffey Jr. .566 2466
4 Barry Larkin .533 4004
5 Austin Kearns .513 1593
6 Aaron Boone .504 2383
7 Ryan Freel .500 1465
8 Dmitri Young .493 1997
9 Felipe Lopez .486 1384
10 Sean Casey .485 4007

OBA OBA AB
1 Barry Larkin .380 4004
2 Adam Dunn .380 2832
3 Sean Casey .371 4007
4 Ryan Freel .368 1465
5 Reggie Sanders .364 1564
6 Ken Griffey Jr. .361 2466
7 Austin Kearns .358 1593
8 Dmitri Young .353 1997
9 Hal Morris .349 1385
10 Eddie Taubensee .343 1920

OPS OPS AB
1 Adam Dunn .892 2832
2 Ken Griffey Jr. .890 2466
3 Reggie Sanders .858 1564
4 Dmitri Young .842 1997
5 Barry Larkin .838 4004
6 Sean Casey .834 4007
7 Austin Kearns .826 1593
8 Eddie Taubensee .799 1920
9 Aaron Boone .785 2383
10 Hal Morris .778 1385

OWP OWP AB
1 Adam Dunn .630 2832
2 Barry Larkin .594 4004
3 Ken Griffey Jr. .593 2466
4 Reggie Sanders .591 1564
5 Sean Casey .561 4007
6 Austin Kearns .537 1593
7 Dmitri Young .525 1997
8 Eddie Taubensee .515 1920
9 Ryan Freel .508 1465
10 Hal Morris .498 1385

RBI RBI AB
1 Sean Casey 604 4007
2 Barry Larkin 489 4004
3 Adam Dunn 466 2832
4 Ken Griffey Jr. 456 2466
5 Aaron Boone 362 2383
6 Eddie Taubensee 309 1920
7 Jason LaRue 303 2226
8 Dmitri Young 296 1997
9 Bret Boone 278 2059
10 Austin Kearns 263 1593

RCAA RCAA AB
1 Adam Dunn 146 2832
2 Barry Larkin 145 4004
3 Ken Griffey Jr. 89 2466
4 Sean Casey 88 4007
5 Reggie Sanders 56 1564
6 Ron Gant 31 410
7 Eric Davis 29 415
8 Jose Guillen 22 424
9 Dmitri Young 21 1997
10 Austin Kearns 20 1593

RCAP RCAP AB
1 Barry Larkin 263 4004
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 99 2466
3 Adam Dunn 81 2832
4 Eddie Taubensee 44 1920
5 Reggie Sanders 29 1564
6 Eric Davis 28 415
T7 Ron Gant 26 410
T7 Felipe Lopez 26 1384
9 David Ross 16 247
10 Jose Guillen 15 424

REACHED BASE RB AB
1 Barry Larkin 1752 4004
2 Sean Casey 1660 4007
3 Adam Dunn 1315 2832
4 Ken Griffey Jr. 1029 2466
5 Aaron Boone 883 2383
6 Jason LaRue 822 2226
7 Dmitri Young 769 1997
8 Eddie Taubensee 727 1920
9 Pokey Reese 695 2061
10 Bret Boone 694 2059

RUNS CREATED/GAME RC/G AB
1 Adam Dunn 7.11 2832
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 6.76 2466
3 Barry Larkin 6.56 4004
4 Reggie Sanders 6.32 1564
5 Sean Casey 6.14 4007
6 Dmitri Young 5.87 1997
7 Austin Kearns 5.80 1593
8 Eddie Taubensee 5.58 1920
9 Ryan Freel 5.39 1465
10 Aaron Boone 5.37 2383

SLG SLG AB
1 Ken Griffey Jr. .530 2466
2 Adam Dunn .513 2832
3 Reggie Sanders .494 1564
4 Dmitri Young .488 1997
5 Austin Kearns .468 1593
6 Sean Casey .463 4007
7 Barry Larkin .458 4004
8 Eddie Taubensee .456 1920
9 Aaron Boone .450 2383
10 Hal Morris .429 1385


BTW here's some stat clarification.


RCAA--Runs created above average. It's the difference between a player's RC total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs. A negative RCAA indicates a below average player in this category.

RCAP--Runs created above average at his position. It's just like RCAA, except the comparision is to players at his position.OWP--Offensive winning percentage. It's a Bill James stat that projects what a team's winning percentage would be if each offensive player was cloned to that player and the team had an average pitching staff.

RC/G--Runs created per game. It's a Bill James stat that projects how many runs a team would average per game, if everyone on the team was cloned to that player.

BPA--Bases per plate appearance. The formula is (TB+BB+HBP+SB-CS-GIDP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)

Offensive Winning Percentage [OWP]

A player's Offensive Winning Percentage equals the percentage of games a team would win with nine of that player in its lineup, given average pitching and defense. The formula is the square of Runs Created per 27 Outs, divided by the sum of the square of Runs Created per 27 Outs and the square of the league average of runs per game.


Have at it, he's a one trick pony who has raked the ball as a Reds hitter, with the common slumps that affect every ballplayer in the game.

harangatang
11-05-2006, 06:46 PM
Oh I forgot how many runs Dunn produced down the stretch when the Reds needed him, he produced alot of runs on that dreaded west coast trip.The problem with people's perception of Dunn is that Dunn is not one of those types of hitters that a team can rely on throughout a whole season. Dunn is very streaky and reminds me of the way Sammy Sosa was in his hey day in that Sammy would either hit 2 or 3 home runs in a day or not get on base. In order for Dunn to be at his best you need another big bat in the lineup (healthy Griffey, Kearns) to be hitting behind for protection. Also you have to have successful people getting on in front of him (he did hit 40 HR) and successful people hitting or getting on base behind him (in order for Dunn to score). The problems with the offense down the stretch was all 8 starters as whole and not Dunn's problem alone. The reason the offense tanked was because of terrible trades such as trading Kearns and Lopez for overpriced middle relief pitching. So have figured out why Dunn sucked during the 2nd half yet? To be blunt and to summarize, it's because we traded away our offense for overpriced pitching and Dunn is reliant on the other bats in the lineup to produce runs.

Redmachine2003
11-05-2006, 06:53 PM
I think Dunn will end up a Yank.

harangatang
11-05-2006, 06:55 PM
I think Dunn will end up a Yank.
And to think Arod isn't good enough for them. Oh well the Yanks will have a new whipping boy.

Joseph
11-05-2006, 06:56 PM
A lack of interest is a sure fire sign they are trying hard to get him.

johngalt
11-05-2006, 07:16 PM
To be blunt and to summarize, it's because we traded away our offense for overpriced pitching and Dunn is reliant on the other bats in the lineup to produce runs.

But see, that's where one of the big misconceptions lies. Adam Dunn is valuable because he helps the lineup produce runs regardless of who is in the lineup around him.

He gets on base.

He hits home runs.

He takes a lot of pitches.

These contributions are valuable and effective no matter what the rest of the lineup does. Has Adam Dunn been more productive when he's hit in front of another good hitter? Yes, of course. ANY hitter is like that.

The problem - as is usually the case - is that people look merely at RBIs and runs scored to determine a player's run production. So someone looks at Adam Dunn and says "Hey, this guy had only XX RBIs the last month, he wasn't very productive." No, that means the lineup wasn't very productive. Those are lineup dependant statistics.

I think that's the concept most people have incredible difficulty understanding. Good, effective hitters increase the offense's chances of scoring runs. But in the end lineups are what produce runs. Other than solo home runs - which Dunn gets a lot of - every run that is scored in a baseball game is a product of the lineup as a whole. It's not due to Ken Griffey Jr. getting a "clutch" hit. It's not due to Ryan Freel stealing two bases to get to third. It's not due to Scott Hatteberg being this amazing "contact" hitter and getting the ball in the air. It's a product of EVERYTHING and EVERYONE.

11BarryLarkin11
11-05-2006, 07:37 PM
Well, it's an "Index Number" not the total, but they got the total for 2003-2005 from these totals.


2003-2205
LHB - 127 HR's - 77 PE
RHB - 358 HR's - 133 PE

For the GAB in that time it was

LHB - 283 HR's - 117 PE
RHB - 334 HR's - 116 PE



I think you're right, West. I think they have it mislabeled in the 2007 Handbook.

Here's what they have:

2004 -2006 NL Home Runs
PHI 120
ARI 120
CIN 119
CHI 118
HOU 115

2004-2006 NL LHB Home Runs
HOU 138
ARI 132
PHI 125
CHI 123
CIN 117

2004-2006 NL RHB Home Runs
CIN 120
PHI 118
CHI 117
ARI 116
LAD 114
HOU 110

redsfanmia
11-05-2006, 07:57 PM
Yes, let's just count those... because after all that's the only time he ever played ball for the Reds.

This is what is sad, people micro kicking the most productive offensive player the Reds have had since the work stoppage.

If you look at the RC formula it's a no doubter, when you look at it vs the league average it's even a bigger crime that folks kick him all the time.

BTW that's every Red with 1500 at bats, which is a scant amount if you are worth worrying about.


1995-2006
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB OBA
1 Adam Dunn 1.94 7.11 5.18 2832 .039
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 1.48 6.76 5.28 2466 .018
3 Barry Larkin 1.35 6.56 5.22 4004 .037
4 Reggie Sanders 1.24 6.32 5.08 1564 .023
5 Sean Casey 0.87 6.14 5.27 4007 .028
6 Austin Kearns 0.65 5.80 5.15 1593 .017
7 Willie Greene 0.58 5.68 5.10 1157 .010
8 Dmitri Young 0.51 5.87 5.36 1997 .009
9 Chris Stynes 0.47 5.80 5.33 1038 .013
10 Eddie Taubensee 0.32 5.58 5.26 1920 -.001

But hey if that's not good enough for you let's look at all the players in MLB under the age of 27 in that same time frame. And we'll go top 20, look who is number 10


1995-2006
AGE < 27
AT BATS < 5300
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB OBA
1 Albert Pujols 4.55 9.74 5.18 3489 .078
2 Todd Helton 4.02 9.44 5.41 1781 .064
3 Alex Rodriguez 3.02 8.25 5.23 4328 .040
4 Nomar Garciaparra 3.00 8.30 5.30 2436 .038
5 Bobby Abreu 2.89 8.28 5.40 1829 .067
6 Manny Ramirez 2.81 8.07 5.26 2166 .054
7 Vladimir Guerrero 2.59 7.87 5.28 3369 .042
8 Miguel Cabrera 2.03 7.24 5.21 2106 .043
9 Chipper Jones 1.99 7.08 5.08 2320 .041
10 Adam Dunn 1.94 7.11 5.18 2832 .039
11 Jason Kendall 1.89 7.17 5.28 2294 .058
12 Mark Teixeira 1.88 6.95 5.07 2346 .028
13 Scott Rolen 1.87 7.16 5.29 2750 .032
14 Derek Jeter 1.73 7.07 5.34 3130 .049
15 Sean Casey 1.35 6.76 5.41 1919 .036
16 Shawn Green 1.25 6.54 5.29 2474 .003
17 Carlos Beltran 1.15 6.30 5.15 2868 .011
18 Eric Chavez 1.13 6.28 5.15 3102 .016
19 Troy Glaus 1.01 6.19 5.18 2755 .017
20 Edgardo Alfonzo 0.95 6.24 5.29 2950 .025

But hey if that's not enough to convince you that this one trick pony is better then you give him credit for let's look at some rate stats and counting stats from the past 11 Reds seasons and see who tops the career total lists.



BPA BPA AB
1 Adam Dunn .596 2832
2 Reggie Sanders .567 1564
3 Ken Griffey Jr. .566 2466
4 Barry Larkin .533 4004
5 Austin Kearns .513 1593
6 Aaron Boone .504 2383
7 Ryan Freel .500 1465
8 Dmitri Young .493 1997
9 Felipe Lopez .486 1384
10 Sean Casey .485 4007

OBA OBA AB
1 Barry Larkin .380 4004
2 Adam Dunn .380 2832
3 Sean Casey .371 4007
4 Ryan Freel .368 1465
5 Reggie Sanders .364 1564
6 Ken Griffey Jr. .361 2466
7 Austin Kearns .358 1593
8 Dmitri Young .353 1997
9 Hal Morris .349 1385
10 Eddie Taubensee .343 1920

OPS OPS AB
1 Adam Dunn .892 2832
2 Ken Griffey Jr. .890 2466
3 Reggie Sanders .858 1564
4 Dmitri Young .842 1997
5 Barry Larkin .838 4004
6 Sean Casey .834 4007
7 Austin Kearns .826 1593
8 Eddie Taubensee .799 1920
9 Aaron Boone .785 2383
10 Hal Morris .778 1385

OWP OWP AB
1 Adam Dunn .630 2832
2 Barry Larkin .594 4004
3 Ken Griffey Jr. .593 2466
4 Reggie Sanders .591 1564
5 Sean Casey .561 4007
6 Austin Kearns .537 1593
7 Dmitri Young .525 1997
8 Eddie Taubensee .515 1920
9 Ryan Freel .508 1465
10 Hal Morris .498 1385

RBI RBI AB
1 Sean Casey 604 4007
2 Barry Larkin 489 4004
3 Adam Dunn 466 2832
4 Ken Griffey Jr. 456 2466
5 Aaron Boone 362 2383
6 Eddie Taubensee 309 1920
7 Jason LaRue 303 2226
8 Dmitri Young 296 1997
9 Bret Boone 278 2059
10 Austin Kearns 263 1593

RCAA RCAA AB
1 Adam Dunn 146 2832
2 Barry Larkin 145 4004
3 Ken Griffey Jr. 89 2466
4 Sean Casey 88 4007
5 Reggie Sanders 56 1564
6 Ron Gant 31 410
7 Eric Davis 29 415
8 Jose Guillen 22 424
9 Dmitri Young 21 1997
10 Austin Kearns 20 1593

RCAP RCAP AB
1 Barry Larkin 263 4004
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 99 2466
3 Adam Dunn 81 2832
4 Eddie Taubensee 44 1920
5 Reggie Sanders 29 1564
6 Eric Davis 28 415
T7 Ron Gant 26 410
T7 Felipe Lopez 26 1384
9 David Ross 16 247
10 Jose Guillen 15 424

REACHED BASE RB AB
1 Barry Larkin 1752 4004
2 Sean Casey 1660 4007
3 Adam Dunn 1315 2832
4 Ken Griffey Jr. 1029 2466
5 Aaron Boone 883 2383
6 Jason LaRue 822 2226
7 Dmitri Young 769 1997
8 Eddie Taubensee 727 1920
9 Pokey Reese 695 2061
10 Bret Boone 694 2059

RUNS CREATED/GAME RC/G AB
1 Adam Dunn 7.11 2832
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 6.76 2466
3 Barry Larkin 6.56 4004
4 Reggie Sanders 6.32 1564
5 Sean Casey 6.14 4007
6 Dmitri Young 5.87 1997
7 Austin Kearns 5.80 1593
8 Eddie Taubensee 5.58 1920
9 Ryan Freel 5.39 1465
10 Aaron Boone 5.37 2383

SLG SLG AB
1 Ken Griffey Jr. .530 2466
2 Adam Dunn .513 2832
3 Reggie Sanders .494 1564
4 Dmitri Young .488 1997
5 Austin Kearns .468 1593
6 Sean Casey .463 4007
7 Barry Larkin .458 4004
8 Eddie Taubensee .456 1920
9 Aaron Boone .450 2383
10 Hal Morris .429 1385


BTW here's some stat clarification.


Have at it, he's a one trick pony who has raked the ball as a Reds hitter, with the common slumps that affect every ballplayer in the game.

Thats all good but he was still terrible down the stretch and has regressed each of the last 3 seasons as his weight has increased. Dunn is a fine player but is over valued. The Reds as a franchise cannot affort to commit a great piece of thier payroll on a player of Dunns skills. Just my honest opinion.

George Foster
11-05-2006, 10:22 PM
Yeah, that's it he's a run producer, no place for that in the game.
I loved all the runs he produced the most important month of the season...good times.

westofyou
11-05-2006, 10:54 PM
I loved all the runs he produced the most important month of the season...good times.
Maybe you could write a sonnet about them then?

redsfanmia
11-05-2006, 11:13 PM
Maybe you could write a sonnet about them then?

It would be a short one.

Patrick Bateman
11-05-2006, 11:50 PM
I loved all the runs he produced the most important month of the season...good times.

I don't really get that. Every game means the same. If he got off to a terrible start and he finished strong, his numbers would have been the same, except he would be comended, saving his best for the stretch run, even though he contributed to the same amount of wins.

TOBTTReds
11-06-2006, 12:05 AM
I don't really get that. Every game means the same. If he got off to a terrible start and he finished strong, his numbers would have been the same, except he would be comended, saving his best for the stretch run, even though he contributed to the same amount of wins.

Probably wouldn't have been commended because they would have been "meaningless" runs produced because with out him, we would have been 20 games back in August.

Patrick Bateman
11-06-2006, 12:07 AM
Probably wouldn't have been commended because they would have been "meaningless" runs produced because with out him, we would have been 20 games back in August.

Good point. Lose-lose situation. He basically has to be at his best the whole season to be "effective". That means he has to be Pujols calibre.

SteelSD
11-06-2006, 12:25 AM
I loved all the runs he produced the most important month of the season...good times.

Interestingly enough, here's the list of Reds who produced more Runs in September:

Chris Denorfia: 10.1
Rich Aurilia: 16.9

Adam Dunn was worth 8.9 Runs in September. His best two months were April and July:

April: 22.7
July: 25.1

Dunn's September versus his best months (1.000+ OPS) was a little bit above one Win. Versus his .904 OPS June, the difference is actually less than one Win. Versus his expected (@.950 OPS), the difference is still one Win.

One Win. That's what you're complaining about- during a period in which just about every other Reds hitter tanked after an ill-advised trade that robbed the Reds of offense while it produced absolutely nothing from a defense and pitching standpoint.

Yet the remainder of the Reds roster- sans Aurilia and Denorfia- produced fewer Runs in September than did Adam Dunn. And neither Aurilia or Denorfia produced Runs above Dunn that would equate to one Win. And the Reds wouldn't have been anywhere near .500 to begin with without Dunn's earlier contributions (see, all games count). Add in the fact that the Reds played well beyond their pythag in the second half of the season and you've really got nothing more about which to complain.

RANDY IN INDY
11-06-2006, 06:50 AM
A talented player who tanked down the stretch. Of whom much is given, much is expected.

wheels
11-06-2006, 08:42 AM
A talented player who tanked down the stretch. Of whom much is given, much is expected.

One liners and hyperbole.

Now THAT'S a one trick pony.

Or should I say two?

traderumor
11-06-2006, 09:37 AM
Interestingly enough, here's the list of Reds who produced more Runs in September:

Chris Denorfia: 10.1
Rich Aurilia: 16.9

Adam Dunn was worth 8.9 Runs in September. His best two months were April and July:

April: 22.7
July: 25.1

Dunn's September versus his best months (1.000+ OPS) was a little bit above one Win. Versus his .904 OPS June, the difference is actually less than one Win. Versus his expected (@.950 OPS), the difference is still one Win.

One Win. That's what you're complaining about- during a period in which just about every other Reds hitter tanked after an ill-advised trade that robbed the Reds of offense while it produced absolutely nothing from a defense and pitching standpoint.

Yet the remainder of the Reds roster- sans Aurilia and Denorfia- produced fewer Runs in September than did Adam Dunn. And neither Aurilia or Denorfia produced Runs above Dunn that would equate to one Win. And the Reds wouldn't have been anywhere near .500 to begin with without Dunn's earlier contributions (see, all games count). Add in the fact that the Reds played well beyond their pythag in the second half of the season and you've really got nothing more about which to complain.

Yea, the supporting cast wasn't "winning games" according to a statistical formula. That's why they're called supporting cast. So, Dunn performed as bad as the supporting cast. That is quite the faint praise. And it seems like you mention "an ill-advised trade" in every post on the Reds these days. I'm starting to wonder if it isn't maybe responsible for the Steelers troubles, too.

SteelSD
11-06-2006, 09:51 AM
Yea, the supporting cast wasn't "winning games" according to a statistical formula. That's why they're called supporting cast. So, Dunn performed as bad as the supporting cast. That is quite the faint praise. And it seems like you mention "an ill-advised trade" in every post on the Reds these days. I'm starting to wonder if it isn't maybe responsible for the Steelers troubles, too.

And I'm starting to wonder if you're capable of addressing a single point without resorting to ad hominem attacks.

traderumor
11-06-2006, 09:58 AM
And I'm starting to wonder if you're capable of addressing a single point without resorting to ad hominem attacks.
Argument was addressed. You argued that Dunn was not quite as bad as the rest of the lineup, that he actually contributed enough to theoretically contribute to one win. My reply was that argument consisted of faint praise. The remainder of the alleged "ad hominem" attack was that your posts consist of one argument to explain every woe known to the Reds. Again, that is addressing your arguments, not you personally. So, I'm not seeing where that is fitting the definition of "ad hominem." Now, if I said, "you talk about the trade all the time because you are a..." then you would be correct. In sum, I dealt with your arguments, not you personally.

SteelSD
11-06-2006, 10:21 AM
Argument was addressed. You argued that Dunn was not quite as bad as the rest of the lineup, that he actually contributed enough to theoretically contribute to one win. My reply was that argument consisted of faint praise. The remainder of the alleged "ad hominem" attack was that your posts consist of one argument to explain every woe known to the Reds. Again, that is addressing your arguments, not you personally. So, I'm not seeing where that is fitting the definition of "ad hominem." Now, if I said, "you talk about the trade all the time because you are a..." then you would be correct. In sum, I dealt with your arguments, not you personally.

You're well past jumping the shark.

traderumor
11-06-2006, 10:32 AM
You're well past jumping the shark.Ah, yes, make false ad hominem claims, then respond with one of your own. Go try to intimidate someone else, Steel, you're act has worn as thin with me as mine with yours.

deltachi8
11-06-2006, 11:49 AM
Nearly every Reds player tanked when "it mattered most" while the front office kept shuffling the deck chairs trying to salvage the season.

I give Wayne credit where it is due, he has made a difference. In fact, I reserved judgement and tried to be supportive of the Kearns/Lopez trade. But results are results and that trade was an awful flop and had as much to do with the team's failures as anything.

You can blame Dunn ifit makes you feel better but truth be told there is an awful lot of people who didn't perform when "it mattered most" and it starts with the front office.

15fan
11-06-2006, 11:52 AM
I've been away for a bit, but the thread title caught my eye.

Marcus Giles a Red?

Is there an echo in here?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51621

RANDY IN INDY
11-06-2006, 11:55 AM
One liners and hyperbole.

Now THAT'S a one trick pony.

Or should I say two?

What's up with you? Dunn is a talented player who most people expect to carry the Reds. He did not do that down the stretch. Doesn't make him a bad player. Dunn is what he is, and the more that I see, the more I think folks are going to have to accept him for what he is, flaws and all, enjoying what he brings to the table and accepting that he may not be the "total force" that some thought he could be. If you don't like it that he didn't come up big in the pennant chase, I don't know what to tell you. That did happen.

Personally, I think you get a little over sensitive when anything other than positives are posted about Adam Dunn. He is far from the perfect player.

registerthis
11-06-2006, 11:55 AM
You argued that Dunn was not quite as bad as the rest of the lineup, that he actually contributed enough to theoretically contribute to one win. My reply was that argument consisted of faint praise.

I do have to say, when addressing Dunn's late season swoon it's not a particularly comforting argument to say that 5 other position players were equally as bad. Considering the lineup the Reds were running out there on a daily basis by September, I would hope that the team's most potent offensive weapon would be doing more than treading water with the likes of Norris Hopper, Scott Hatteberg and David Ross.

RANDY IN INDY
11-06-2006, 11:58 AM
I do have to say, when addressing Dunn's late season swoon it's not a particularly comforting argument to say that 5 other position players were equally as bad. Considering the lineup the Reds were running out there on a daily basis by September, I would hope that the team's most potent offensive weapon would be doing more than treading water with the likes of Norris Hopper, Scott Hatteberg and David Ross.

Absolutely.:beerme:

Heath
11-06-2006, 12:10 PM
I do have to say, when addressing Dunn's late season swoon it's not a particularly comforting argument to say that 5 other position players were equally as bad. Considering the lineup the Reds were running out there on a daily basis by September, I would hope that the team's most potent offensive weapon would be doing more than treading water with the likes of Norris Hopper, Scott Hatteberg and David Ross.

And even though it was a "long shot" to overtake the Cards in the waning days of the season, it was people like Norris Hopper and Todd Hollandsworth who were playing everyday to keep this club in it.

THAT'S the OTHER least comforting thought.

"Norris Hopper", "Todd Hollandsworth" , & "Playoffs" in the same sentence. Where's Jim Mora when you need him?

traderumor
11-06-2006, 12:14 PM
And even though it was a "long shot" to overtake the Cards in the waning days of the season, it was people like Norris Hopper and Todd Hollandsworth who were playing everyday to keep this club in it.

THAT'S the OTHER least comforting thought.

"Norris Hopper", "Todd Hollandsworth" , & "Playoffs" in the same sentence. Where's Jim Mora when you need him?Hey, don't forget Chris Michalak started a must win against the Marlins. Good times they were in September.

Kc61
11-06-2006, 01:49 PM
I do have to say, when addressing Dunn's late season swoon it's not a particularly comforting argument to say that 5 other position players were equally as bad. Considering the lineup the Reds were running out there on a daily basis by September, I would hope that the team's most potent offensive weapon would be doing more than treading water with the likes of Norris Hopper, Scott Hatteberg and David Ross.

I agree with this. Saying that Dunn had more runs produced than all but Aurilia and Denorfia isn't saying much. Who did he top in that department (in September)? There was no Griffey, no Kearns, no Lopez. He "beat out" the likes of EE, basically a rookie, Scott Hatteberg, a journeyman OBP guy, David Ross and Brandon Phillips.

However, when one looks at the Reds' September lineup, you have to cut Dunn some slack. Once Griffey went down, the lineup was weak. Being one "star" power hitter in a weak lineup is a recipe for disaster. Hitters do best as part of a solid all around lineup.

So I think Dunn did poorly. But I also think it was probably not a true test for him. I'd like to see the Reds add one more big bat, even an older player who can be obtained relatively cheaply, to help protect Dunn and Griffey, if they both stay.

Wheelhouse
11-06-2006, 04:39 PM
Reds fans don't that's for sure.

The Astros are more likely to pursue a big RH bat then a LH bat, their park is built for RH power and Berkman's power side is LH, a RH bat would look good in the late innings.

But hey I won't let facts get in the way of a good horse whipping.

Hey don't you think you're a little prejudiced in favor of Dunn--I mean, you use him in your avatar. ;)

TC81190
11-06-2006, 05:10 PM
Reds fans don't that's for sure.

The Astros are more likely to pursue a big RH bat then a LH bat, their park is built for RH power and Berkman's power side is LH, a RH bat would look good in the late innings.

But hey I won't let facts get in the way of a good horse whipping.


.234 .365 .490

*cue this sound (http://content.ytmnd.com/content/1/8/5/185819b8a12ad664d53785f1bba3b5d6.wav)*

Heath
11-06-2006, 05:12 PM
.234 .365 .490

*cue this sound (http://content.ytmnd.com/content/1/8/5/185819b8a12ad664d53785f1bba3b5d6.wav)*

I give TCB - what game show did that come from - was it the "Price is Right"?

SteelSD
11-06-2006, 06:52 PM
Go try to intimidate someone else, Steel, you're act has worn as thin with me as mine with yours.

Attempts to insult are not aided by unintelligible sentences.

traderumor
11-06-2006, 07:16 PM
Attempts to insult are not aided by unintelligible sentences.Move on, Steel. There was no attempt to insult, I do not desire to carry on any conversations with you and will leave your posts be. I saw the the wrong form of word I used but didn't desire to edit the post figuring it would only open the door for you to give another one of your zesty responses. Good day.

Chip R
11-06-2006, 07:26 PM
Let's step away from the keyboard for a bit, folks, and when you come back, feel free to again debate the topic at hand instead of whatever it was you guys were arguing about.

mth123
11-06-2006, 07:32 PM
I agree with this. Saying that Dunn had more runs produced than all but Aurilia and Denorfia isn't saying much. Who did he top in that department (in September)? There was no Griffey, no Kearns, no Lopez. He "beat out" the likes of EE, basically a rookie, Scott Hatteberg, a journeyman OBP guy, David Ross and Brandon Phillips.

However, when one looks at the Reds' September lineup, you have to cut Dunn some slack. Once Griffey went down, the lineup was weak. Being one "star" power hitter in a weak lineup is a recipe for disaster. Hitters do best as part of a solid all around lineup.

So I think Dunn did poorly. But I also think it was probably not a true test for him. I'd like to see the Reds add one more big bat, even an older player who can be obtained relatively cheaply, to help protect Dunn and Griffey, if they both stay.

Good post!

TC81190
11-07-2006, 06:19 PM
I give TCB - what game show did that come from - was it the "Price is Right"?

Yep!

Redsland
11-07-2006, 08:04 PM
Tell him what he's won!

:)

Heath
11-07-2006, 08:31 PM
Tell him what he's won!

:)

According to the sound on the link, I just pulled the third strike and lost the car.

Oh well, there's always the Showcase Showdown.