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Tom Servo
11-07-2006, 07:46 AM
I didn't see this one posted anywhere, my apologies if it was.

http://www.gothambaseball.com/news/1162844521.php


One Bay Area official didn't disagree, but also told Gotham Baseball Magazine that the Tigers are 'trying to find a team that can satisfy all of their needs in one deal', but are finding that difficult. Reportedly, the Reds have offered Adam Dunn, Jason LaRue and Brandon Phillips, but the Tigers are not 'very positive about that as a potential return for Bonderman.'

Degenerate39
11-07-2006, 09:21 AM
What are they thinking? Brandon Phillips added into the deal?

I don't follow the minor leagues that much except Votto Homer and Bruce but are there any up and coming short stops or 2nd baseman to even replace BP?

FutureRedsGM
11-07-2006, 09:22 AM
It's hard to address such a vague rumor, but I would hope that there would be several more pieces coming back from Detroit in a deal like that. Dunn, Larue, and BP are WAY too much to give up for Bonderman. I can't understand why BP would even be on the trading block. It seems that he is a must have at either 2B or SS for them this year. Why does a team that has the greatest catcher of our time (Pudge) have interest in Larue?

BRM
11-07-2006, 09:23 AM
What are they thinking? Brandon Phillips added into the deal?

That's what I was thinking. That seems like a pretty steep price for Bonderman.

registerthis
11-07-2006, 09:28 AM
Wow, would the Reds get hosed in that one.

Ltlabner
11-07-2006, 09:30 AM
I usually stear clear of the trade rumor threads since almost none of them come to pass. But if this were to happen.....mercy. Giving up Philips makes no sense (unless there are other moves in the wings) and giving up that much for 1 pitcher makes no sense.

I'm going to file this one in the "yeaaa right" drawer and hope it doesn't ever really happen.

RichRed
11-07-2006, 09:32 AM
That would be dreadful. I shudder to think what kind of lineup that would leave us with.

Heath
11-07-2006, 09:33 AM
That would be dreadful. I shudder to think what kind of lineup that would leave us with.

Deno LF
Hatte 1B
Griffey CF
EdE 3B
Ross C
Harris 2b
Free Agent/RA/Olmedo SS
Hopper RF
Pitcher.



:yikes:


Bright side - that trade happens, it frees up room to resign Rich Aurilia.

(Commence tomato firing) :D

vaticanplum
11-07-2006, 09:46 AM
Why don't we just become the first team to subsist solely on pitching?

Hoosier Red
11-07-2006, 09:51 AM
Why don't we just become the first team to subsist solely on pitching?

It would certainly be different than what we're used to.

Just curious what is Bonderman's salary look like. It may just be a dump, and in order to get Detroit to take Larue, we'd have to give up something of value.

If this would basically re allocate Dunn's money to someone like Tejada, I wouldn't hate it so much. I'd still hate it, just not as much.

Jim
11-07-2006, 09:53 AM
Why don't we just become the first team to subsist solely on pitching?

If our pitching staff can manage a WHIP of 0.00 and an ERA of 0.00, we don't have to care about much in the way of defense or offense. We just need to play a little small ball and scrounge up a run every game. It could happen... oh wait... no it can't... this is a nasty trade rumor! :thumbdown

pahster
11-07-2006, 09:57 AM
Deno LF
Hatte 1B
Griffey CF
EdE 3B
Ross C
Harris 2b
Free Agent/RA/Olmedo SS
Hopper RF
Pitcher.


Wow. What is that, like 500 runs over the course of a season?

westofyou
11-07-2006, 10:01 AM
Why don't we just become the first team to subsist solely on pitching?

They tried that in the 20's... it didn't turn out so good.

corkedbat
11-07-2006, 10:01 AM
I like it - no, I love it! With with all of our quality Middle Infield depth who needs Phillips? Besides, that would free up enough payroll to resign Aurillia and Clayton. Sheesh. :bang: :bang: :bang:

I pray this is bogus unless they pour some more sugary goodness on the Reds portion.

RichRed
11-07-2006, 10:08 AM
Wow. What is that, like 500 runs over the course of a season?

I think you meant 50. We would be shut out a record 97 times in one season.

RichRed
11-07-2006, 10:09 AM
Deno LF
Hatte 1B
Griffey CF
EdE 3B
Ross C
Harris 2b
Free Agent/RA/Olmedo SS
Hopper RF
Pitcher.



:yikes:


Bright side - that trade happens, it frees up room to resign Rich Aurilia.

(Commence tomato firing) :D

You, sir, are evil.

osuceltic
11-07-2006, 10:11 AM
The success or failure of a trade like this depends on the other moves you make. I feel fairly certain we wouldn't go into next season with a gaping hole at second base. It's all part of a process.

I also would wonder what Detroit might have in the middle infield. Anyone?

You can debate the merits of Dunn-Bonderman as the principles, but I think reasonable people can disagree. That probably makes it pretty fair. Of course, it will be judged on what happens in the future -- and that's the best way -- but where we are now, Dunn-Bonderman probably is fair to both sides.

Are you willing to give up Phillips to dump LaRue? I don't like it as a Phillips fan, but I don't know how that money will be spent or what the plans are for the middle infield. I'm willing to let that play out before condemning the move.

b-gizz
11-07-2006, 10:46 AM
I didn't see this one posted anywhere, my apologies if it was.

http://www.gothambaseball.com/news/1162844521.php

I had to weigh in on this... Why would Detroit want Brandon Phillips? They just signed Polanco to a long term deal and they also have Carlos Guillen. I would find that hard to believe, unless they would move Guillen to 1B. It's giving up way to much for Bonderman who wouldn't even be a true number 1 starter.

westofyou
11-07-2006, 10:52 AM
I had to weigh in on this... Why would Detroit want Brandon Phillips? Because it makes the rumor so insane that you have to click on the link, thus generating ad revenue and potential subscribers to Gotham Baseball.

Ltlabner
11-07-2006, 10:54 AM
Because it makes the rumor so insane that you have to click on the link, thus generating ad revenue and potential subscribers to Gotham Baseball.

Oh stop...you see conspiricies behind every lemonaid stand.

:p:

Falls City Beer
11-07-2006, 10:55 AM
Balderdash. Substanceless drivel.

MartyFan
11-07-2006, 12:33 PM
What if it would free up the money to bring in an ARod?

I am probably nuts but I really think this FO is going to swing for the fences. I know the deal with Kearns and Lopez has backfired on them in the short term but it still has a chance to even out this year...so I don't think the FO will be shy.

harangatang
11-07-2006, 12:39 PM
It's hard to address such a vague rumor, but I would hope that there would be several more pieces coming back from Detroit in a deal like that. Dunn, Larue, and BP are WAY too much to give up for Bonderman. I can't understand why BP would even be on the trading block. It seems that he is a must have at either 2B or SS for them this year. Why does a team that has the greatest catcher of our time (Pudge) have interest in Larue?Before Kearns and Lopez were traded there was a rumor posted on an ESPN message board about a trade involving the two before anyone else reported anything at all (like 2 or 3 days). The original rumor involved Miguel Tejada but it was declared blasphemous on this board but it turned out there was some truth in it. You never know.

LoganBuck
11-07-2006, 12:50 PM
Keep in mind the Tigers have some other tasty commodities in the minors. They have talent at AA and AAA. Especially pitchers and a few bats. Not just A ballers with potential two years down the road.

RedLegSuperStar
11-07-2006, 12:58 PM
Depends.. how many years is Bonderman under arbitration?

LaRue and Dunn are off the books after seasons end.. Why not sell high on Phillips to get a young pitcher who you know is going to win games and eat innings. The Reds then would probably look at resigning Aurilia. To be honest that is a good deal for both teams and the Tigers might want to reconsider.

Ltlabner
11-07-2006, 12:59 PM
Keep in mind the Tigers have some other tasty commodities in the minors. They have talent at AA and AAA. Especially pitchers and a few bats. Not just A ballers with potential two years down the road.

I could see Dunn + LaRue for Bonderman and 3 top flight prospects (2 of who would have solid bats, 1 with a strong pitching arm).

Would Detroit see that? Doubt it.

paulrichjr
11-07-2006, 01:02 PM
Wayne makes this deal and threads on Redszone turn into wishing leather pants and binderboy was still in charge. Not going to happen without us making a huge run for every quality outfielder and infielder that is a free agent.

Joseph
11-07-2006, 01:09 PM
Wayne makes this deal and threads on Redszone turn into wishing leather pants and binderboy was still in charge. Not going to happen without us making a huge run for every quality outfielder and infielder that is a free agent.

Absolutely right. I was on board with the Nat's deal, even if it didn't pan out as hoped, but if he dumps Dunn and Phillips and the sure to rebound LaRue for one guy thats not a sure fire 20 game winner every year for a decade, then I'll be placing WK in my list of bad GMs we've had in the last decade.

TeamSelig
11-07-2006, 01:10 PM
lol Dunn + LaRue for Bonderman & THREE prospects? Wow.

Dunn for Bonderman is pretty even. LaRue has very little value. Also, if you haven't noticed, no one trades three of their top prospects along with a great very young SP that has experienced success for a stud OFer and an aged expensive catcher.

- edit: wasn't trying to be mean or anything about that, I was just saying I don't think that would ever happen

I think I would trade anything outside of EdE and Homer to get Joel Zumaya.

Fantasy trade:
- A. Dunn
- A. Harang
for
- J. Zumaya
- J. Bonderman
- F. Rodney

Ltlabner
11-07-2006, 01:15 PM
lol Dunn + LaRue for Bonderman & THREE prospects? Wow.

Dunn for Bonderman is pretty even. LaRue has very little value. Also, if you haven't noticed, no one trades three of their top prospects along with a great very young SP that has experienced success for a stud OFer and an aged expensive catcher.

- edit: wasn't trying to be mean or anything about that, I was just saying I don't think that would ever happen



Which is why I commented that I doubted that Detroit would see things my way.

That's a round-about way of saying that I don't think there's a snowballs chance of that happening.

Spring~Fields
11-07-2006, 01:23 PM
I could see Krivsky trading away salaries that have been reported to be in the 15million dollar range in 2007, Dunn 10mil and Larue 5mil, to obtain a young 24 year old starting pitcher making $2,300,000 in 2006 and sweetening the pot with Phillips to get Detroit to bite on taking Larue’s salary.

Yet if he wants to start winning now he will have to make some significant FA signing to make up for the loss on the offensive side.

Pena, Kearns and Lopez did not cause him to blink an eye, why would any of the other Reds players?

Caseyfan21
11-07-2006, 01:23 PM
It's much easier to find a middle infielder than a starting pitcher. Brandon Phillips' value is also peaking right now. He had a career year. Personally I think he would fit the profile of the perfect player to trade for a starting pitcher. We can replace him fairly easily through the free agent market for much cheaper than it would cost to get a free agent pitcher with Bonderman's ability.

Dunn+Phillips+LaRue seems like a little much for Bonderman right now but young starters are usually overpriced.

Handofdeath
11-07-2006, 02:09 PM
lol Dunn + LaRue for Bonderman & THREE prospects? Wow.

Dunn for Bonderman is pretty even. LaRue has very little value. Also, if you haven't noticed, no one trades three of their top prospects along with a great very young SP that has experienced success for a stud OFer and an aged expensive catcher.

- edit: wasn't trying to be mean or anything about that, I was just saying I don't think that would ever happen

I think I would trade anything outside of EdE and Homer to get Joel Zumaya.

Fantasy trade:
- A. Dunn
- A. Harang
for
- J. Zumaya
- J. Bonderman
- F. Rodney

If you'll read the article you'll find out what other teams opinions are of Dunn.

(As a side note, our CA source went out of his way to say that Dunn’s value is “plummeting”, saying that teams are not willing to trade “significant young talent” in exchange for a player “whose average goes down while his salary goes up.”)

I will say it again. Despite whatever his fans have to say or what stats that might get thrown out, MLB teams know the real story on Adam Dunn and they're not that impressed. The excessive strikeouts and the batting average do matter to them. They might not matter to some on this board and elsewhere but they do matter to MLB teams.

paulrichjr
11-07-2006, 02:15 PM
It's much easier to find a middle infielder than a starting pitcher. Brandon Phillips' value is also peaking right now. He had a career year. Personally I think he would fit the profile of the perfect player to trade for a starting pitcher. We can replace him fairly easily through the free agent market for much cheaper than it would cost to get a free agent pitcher with Bonderman's ability.

Dunn+Phillips+LaRue seems like a little much for Bonderman right now but young starters are usually overpriced.


Not as overpriced as middle relievers though. JK

PuffyPig
11-07-2006, 02:29 PM
Why don't we just become the first team to subsist solely on pitching?

The Dodgers in the 60's were pretty much "pitching" teams. but Koufax and Drysdale made them a world series pitching team.

registerthis
11-07-2006, 02:32 PM
Why not sell high on Phillips to get a young pitcher who you know is going to win games and eat innings.

Because you would have NO middle infield depth whatsoever.

LoganBuck
11-07-2006, 02:44 PM
Because you would have NO middle infield depth whatsoever.

Anderson Machado would love a second chance!:evil:

RedsManRick
11-07-2006, 02:51 PM
Three top flight prospects is probably bit steep, but I can agree with a basic package of Dunn and change for Bonderman and change.

The problem as I see it is that Phillips is more valuable to us than he is to the Tigers given our lack of depth at MI. The FA options such as Counsel and Kennedy are wholly unattractive, particularly for a team which would be losing Dunn.

The other thing to remember is that the Tigers would be making the deal to "put them over the top". That pretty much rules out including those young guys who have just graduated to the majors like Zumaya and Minor. Instead our value (outside of Bonderman) would have to come from their next round of prospects who perhaps don't have a roster spot available to them in Detroit at the moment. Detroit is making a run now.

BRM
11-07-2006, 02:55 PM
Because you would have NO middle infield depth whatsoever.

No confidence in the Castro/Olmedo/Harris trio, huh? I don't blame you.

dougdirt
11-07-2006, 03:06 PM
I would do that deal, but I dont know why the Tigers would. Bonderman would be a top of the rotation guy in the NL, is young and has just gotten better as time goes on. Dunn on the other hand isnt really a middle of the order type guy, and has a very limited skillset. Ontop of that, he would be a FA at the end of next season. Brandon Phillips, while I like him a lot, I would give him up and bring up Harris if the deal got back Bonderman.

Spitball
11-07-2006, 03:31 PM
It's much easier to find a middle infielder than a starting pitcher. Brandon Phillips' value is also peaking right now. He had a career year. Personally I think he would fit the profile of the perfect player to trade for a starting pitcher. We can replace him fairly easily through the free agent market for much cheaper than it would cost to get a free agent pitcher with Bonderman's ability.

Dunn+Phillips+LaRue seems like a little much for Bonderman right now but young starters are usually overpriced.

I agree. Left fielders and second string catchers are much easier to develop and/or sign than Bonderman type starting pitchers. Phillips had a career year but doesn't seem to have inspired total faith in his ability to play shortstop. If they see him as a second baseman, I have no problem with them including him in a deal for Bonderman. Though, if Phillips is included, I'd want at least Fernando Rodney included.

The Reds need pitchers. They have a ballpark that allows scrapheap reclamation projects like Hatteberg, Aurilia, Phillips, and Ross to be viable starting players, yet pitchers crumble and die. I believe they need to concentrate on acquiring pitchers and let the hitting evolve from the same magic potion that revived the careers of those position players I already mentioned.

RedLegSuperStar
11-07-2006, 03:34 PM
Because you would have NO middle infield depth whatsoever.

Remaining budget could be used to acquire someone. You have Freel, Harris, Olmedo, Castro..

remdog
11-07-2006, 03:37 PM
Remaining budget could be used to acquire someone. You have Freel, Harris, Olmedo, Castro..

You just proved the point that registerthis was trying to make. :)

Rem

Mario-Rijo
11-07-2006, 03:50 PM
I know this doesn't necc. mean much to this discussion but it could given the answer.

Question: Is Andrew Miller available to be dealt? I know normally guys are not tradeable within a year of being drafted, but once they make the Major League team does that change? I have no reason to believe this is true but since he made the club late in the season (albiet w/o a great deal of success) I wonder if that changes anything.

But if I am dealing Dunn, Larue & Phillips to Detroit then I am getting more than Bonderman because Strikeout pitchers don't typically give you more than 7 innings unless they are superiorly dominant (Think Clemens) and Bonderman although very good hasn't proved that yet. In fact from Aug. 20th on to the end of last season Bonderman made it no further than 6.1 innings in any game (8 Starts Regular Season) and made it to the 6th only 4 of those times. All the while giving up 4 or more runs in 4 of those outings (4,4,5 and 6 runs to be exact). So basically he does you no good unless you have a formidable bullpen to hold his leads.

I want at least Bonderman and Craig Monroe (OF) and if I can get it a prospective arm like a Miner or Sanchez, even if I had to add yet another player perhaps like a Rheal Cormier who would be a fit in Detroit.

However I feel like the best deal for us to make would be something like Dunn, Larue, Freel, Cormier & Paul Janish for Bonderman, Monroe, Omar Infante (SS) and a minor league pitcher. That gives Detroit the power LH bat, a 2nd reliable LH out of the pen a leadoff hitter that they can play in several different positions and a possible future SS (Guillen is a FA after '07). We get a top of the rotation starter, a solid COF RH bat and a SS for the here and now.

I'm sure their are guys that both would hate to part with but it gives both teams a chance to compete now and in the future. And they can have Larue if they are willing to make that deal. I'd even toss in a few bucks, say 3 million to get it done.

dunner13
11-07-2006, 04:29 PM
This rumor makes no sense to me. The Tigers would have no intrest in larue, and no reason to take on his salary. They can get dunn without him easily so they sure wouldnt take him, who wants a 5 million dollar backup catcher. They might have some intrest in phillips but with guillen and polanco on their team I cant imagine they have much intrest. I think dunn for bonderman is pretty even, because of the competition for bonderman we might have to throw in a decent prospect maybe travis wood, which I would be willing to do.

ChatterRed
11-07-2006, 04:31 PM
I think we need to throw in more for Bonderman, like say.............Griffey, too.

Dunn, Larue, Phillips and Griffey..........and maybe Milton. That would make me happy. Other than Phillips, the other 4 are the highest paid on the club and least productive. I think it would free up like $32 million. Unload them and then go sign some FA's. Zito, Schmidt, Soriano, Lee............lol........sounds good (in theory).

VI_RedsFan
11-07-2006, 04:49 PM
What do you guys think of this?

Dunn, LaRue, Phillips to DET for Bonderman and Rodney

This frees up a lot of money to possibly make a play for a Carlos Lee, who could replace Dunn's loss of production. I'm shaky on letting go of Brandon, because he's one of my favorite Reds. But, if it meant we got a top-flight, young SP in Bonderman, plus a hard-throwing RP who could be Joe Nathan Version 2.0, I might have to pull the trigger on that deal...

Chip R
11-07-2006, 04:55 PM
This rumor makes no sense to me. The Tigers would have no intrest in larue, and no reason to take on his salary.


Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too.

FutureRedsGM
11-07-2006, 04:57 PM
What do you guys think of this?

Dunn, LaRue, Phillips to DET for Bonderman and Rodney

This frees up a lot of money to possibly make a play for a Carlos Lee, who could replace Dunn's loss of production. I'm shaky on letting go of Brandon, because he's one of my favorite Reds. But, if it meant we got a top-flight, young SP in Bonderman, plus a hard-throwing RP who could be Joe Nathan Version 2.0, I might have to pull the trigger on that deal...

I still can't fathom how Detroit would be interested in this. As has been stated before in this thread, Detroit has no need for Larue or Phillips. So in actuallity, the Reds get Bonderman, Rodney, AND salary relief for Dunn? I know we like Dunn A LOT around here but he's just not that valuable. The basics of this trade seem reasonable (Dunn for Bonderman), but you lose me after that.

dunner13
11-07-2006, 05:03 PM
It is clear that if this rumor is actually true that detroit rejected it, which makes sense since it makes no sense for them. The good thing however is that if it is true then that means krivsky is trying to get us a top young pitcher. After years of the only trade rumors about the reds being us dumping salary for prospects this is at least exiciting. If Krivsky wants to get rid of dunn, he can, he might need to wait though. Once lee signs, sheff is traded and some others then the market for dunn will probably go up with whatever teams havent been able to add a bat yet. Bonderman would be awesome so hopefully wayne can get him here somehow.

registerthis
11-07-2006, 05:51 PM
You just proved the point that registerthis was trying to make. :)

Rem

Yeah, I don't really have anything to add to that.

fewfirstchoice
11-07-2006, 06:30 PM
Dunn, Freel,Dumatrait, and Wood for Bonderman and Rodney or Monroe on or the other.This is a deal that could work.

RedLegSuperStar
11-07-2006, 06:43 PM
I still can't fathom how Detroit would be interested in this. As has been stated before in this thread, Detroit has no need for Larue or Phillips. So in actuallity, the Reds get Bonderman, Rodney, AND salary relief for Dunn? I know we like Dunn A LOT around here but he's just not that valuable. The basics of this trade seem reasonable (Dunn for Bonderman), but you lose me after that.

I don't think Rodney was involved in the trade that was just someone proposing on the deal within this thread. But you figure Pudge may or may not be back after 2007 and LaRue could be the guy they put in place after Pudge would leave. Sure they would have to resign LaRue but he would come at a third of the cost. I think we need to offer up some bullpen arm or young prospect besides Bailey or Wood and add cash to the deal and see if we can't get Monroe or Thames out of the deal. If we deal Dunn we are going to need to fill the void left in the offense. Both Thames and Monroe proved to have some pop in their sticks in 06 and may fair better in the NL parks like GAPB, Houston, Colorado, etc.. Phillips could become their 2nd baseman if Polanco moves to 3rd and keep Guillen at SS. Or heck Phillips could be used to obtain another need for Detroit.

dunner13
11-07-2006, 06:45 PM
I wonder if the reason wayne is willing to move phillips is because he plans on adding giles. Although we would still need a shortstop, giles would at least make it easier to trade phillips.

RedLegSuperStar
11-07-2006, 06:53 PM
Yeah, I don't really have anything to add to that.

I'm just saying.. you have people to fill the void. The Expos and Indians didn't give Phillips a chance to play everyday like the Reds did. We all wanted to vote Phillips to the All Star game at the mid way point and name him our MVP. Yes he's young, yes he's talented with a glove. Which makes him marketable. Just like many suggest to keep LaRue and trade Ross because his value is purhaps as high as it will be. We could turn around and deal prospects for Marcus Giles, or sign Lugo, or another Free Agent. Everyone wants Freel to play everyday.. some want to see what Olmedo is going to become if anything.. Castro is more of a defensive replacment and not much more.. Harris is unproven but showed he could play at the AAA level since coming over in the deal with the Nats. We know Wayne.. and he's going to offer the farm to obtain a need. Is Bonderman a need? I think we can do fine with signing a number 3 guy because who becomes your ace when you have Bonderman, Harang, and Arroyo? Well let me rephrase that.. that would actually be fine with me but I think in this case why trade so much offense to get a pitching need when we are hungry for offense? Sign a Padilla, Lilly, Wolf, Meche, Eaton type guy and plug him in the three slot and deal Dunn, LaRue, Milton, etc.. at the deadline because they may or may not resign with us at seasons end.

RedLegSuperStar
11-07-2006, 06:57 PM
Is Bonderman a need? I think we can do fine with signing a number 3 guy because who becomes your ace when you have Bonderman, Harang, and Arroyo? Well let me rephrase that.. that would actually be fine with me but I think in this case why trade so much offense to get a pitching need when we are hungry for offense? Sign a Padilla, Lilly, Wolf, Meche, Eaton type guy and plug him in the three slot and deal Dunn, LaRue, Milton, etc.. at the deadline because they may or may not resign with us at seasons end.

Got me to thinking as soon as I posted it. What if the Reds didn't want to hang on to Bonderman and was initially set up for a future trade center piece.. maybe one involving A-Rod? A-Rod would move to SS and we could again plug anyone of the mentioned names at 2nd.

dunner13
11-07-2006, 07:04 PM
Why wouldnt the tigers just trade bonderman in a deal for arod. He would be alot better bat then dunn. The yankees are going to move arod, if we get bonderman we keep him, he becomes one of the best pitchers ever to play for the reds.

mound_patrol
11-07-2006, 07:14 PM
I don't like that there are rumors flying around about Dunn already. Like someone mentioned before his value will go up slightly after some of the other big names are gobbled up. But I'd rather try to sign Dunn long term, and if the Reds are out of it by the deadline maybe a playoff contender would be willing to give up more. Or we just hold onto him and can start all of these rumors again next year.

RedLegSuperStar
11-07-2006, 07:51 PM
Or we just hold onto him and can start all of these rumors again next year.

Dunn could opt out of the deal at seasons end...

mound_patrol
11-07-2006, 07:56 PM
Dunn could opt out of the deal at seasons end...

By saying hold onto him, I was referring to what to do after we sign him long term this offseason. I know this is pretty much the only time to trade him if he stays under the current contract.

Krusty
11-07-2006, 08:06 PM
Dunn for Bonderman straight up seems fair. The Reds can look at free agency to replace Dunn's lost offensive production.

RedLegSuperStar
11-07-2006, 08:40 PM
Dunn for Bonderman straight up seems fair. The Reds can look at free agency to replace Dunn's lost offensive production.

Detroit is coming off World Series run.. they think their players are worth the moon right now. Once Free Angency starts up and the market is set on players then we can see moves being made to obtain talent. Hope Krivsky takes a deep breath and not over pay for needs like the move heard round the 'Zone.

Handofdeath
11-07-2006, 08:43 PM
What would make the Tigers want to take on an extra 7-8 million in salary for a guy who would basically be a DH?

redlegs7089
11-07-2006, 08:50 PM
dunns value is way to low right now, we need him to have a good year this year and then look to trade him

gm
11-07-2006, 08:57 PM
The Reds need pitchers. They have a ballpark that allows scrapheap reclamation projects like Hatteberg, Aurilia, Phillips, and Ross to be viable starting players, yet pitchers crumble and die. I believe they need to concentrate on acquiring pitchers and let the hitting evolve from the same magic potion that revived the careers of those position players I already mentioned.

I tend to agree...Hatteberg, Phillips and Ross weren't even on the Red's 40-man roster last January, yet they combined to get the majority of starts at 3 of the 8 everyday positions

Certainly Wayne doesn't want to head into '07 having to pull three rabbits out of a hat, again. But it says something about the state of the the FA market (and ballplayers with "no options remaining" at the end of spring training) that this quality of player is available in February and late March.

Spitball
11-07-2006, 11:13 PM
I tend to agree...Hatteberg, Phillips and Ross weren't even on the Red's 40-man roster last January, yet they combined to get the majority of starts at 3 of the 8 everyday positions

Certainly Wayne doesn't want to head into '07 having to pull three rabbits out of a hat, again. But it says something about the state of the the FA market (and ballplayers with "no options remaining" at the end of spring training) that this quality of player is available in February and late March.

Right, offensive acquisitions will happen, and the ballpark will produce Aurilia/Hatteberg-type statistics. Pitching is the need.

redsmetz
11-08-2006, 05:29 AM
Because it makes the rumor so insane that you have to click on the link, thus generating ad revenue and potential subscribers to Gotham Baseball.

Exactly - it's Fantasy League type BS, plain and simple.

Kc61
11-08-2006, 10:42 AM
Dunn for Bonderman straight up seems fair. The Reds can look at free agency to replace Dunn's lost offensive production.

Except that the Tigers don't appear to want Dunn, Larue and Phillips all together for Bonderman. Why would they take Dunn alone? Because some of us on Redszone think Dunn is worth a king's ransom?

Let's face it. Despite all the statistical analyses on Redszone showing him to be a great offensive force, most baseball people have problems with a player who sets the all time major league strikeout record, whose numbers are declining at age 27, and who can't play defense.

What's more, his contract doesn't help. If he is traded, Dunn is eligible for free agency after next year. The club option (according to press reports) disappears in that situation. Perhaps the Tigers are to be forgiven if they don't find one year of Dunn to be compelling.

This is why the Reds are probably best off keeping Dunn. He doesn't have that much value. All these articles saying that the Astros and Tigers don't want him won't help dealing with other teams. And he certainly could improve next year as a Red in the (unlikely) event that he is surrounded by better offensive players.

What happens if he is not traded? Well, he could be traded at the 7/31 deadline but at that point he would be a two-three month rental for the acquiring team. Or, the Reds could keep him and decide whether to pay him $13 million in 2008; or try to renegotiate his 2008 deal, perhaps for a longer period; or just not exercise the option and let him go after 2008.

Or, if Krivsky is set on dealing him, he may just send him away for the best pitcher he can get, whomever that may be.

The alternatives are not that great. The best case scenarios are either that some team emerges that really wants Dunn and will pay highly for him, or that the Reds keep him and he has a great 2007 for them. I hope one of these happen, but I don't know how likely it is.

Spring~Fields
11-08-2006, 10:55 AM
Or, the Reds could keep him and decide whether to pay him $13 million in 2008; or try to renegotiate his 2008 deal, perhaps for a longer period; or just not exercise the option and let him go after 2008.



Assume for a minute that the Reds keep AD and his contract runs through 2008. Do you or anyone see the Reds re-signing AD after that year for even more money than he receives in 2008 if his numbers stay consistent with his current career numbers?

I also wonder, why hasn't some major league team before now come along with a knock your socks off deal in an attempt to trade for AD, something that even a Reds GM could not turn down?

lollipopcurve
11-08-2006, 10:56 AM
Assume for a minute the Reds keep AD and his contract runs through 2008. Do you or anyone see the Reds re-signing AD after that year for even more money than he receives in 2008 if his numbers stay consistent with his current career numbers?

Nope.

westofyou
11-08-2006, 11:04 AM
Except that the Tigers don't appear to want Dunn, Larue and Phillips all together for Bonderman. Seriously, the rumor is crap, the Reds wouldn't trade 3 starters straight up for a guy who has faced over 3000 batters in his short life. It's a joke rumor from a web site 95% of the people on RZ never heard of before.

paulrichjr
11-08-2006, 03:32 PM
Seriously, the rumor is crap, the Reds wouldn't trade 3 starters straight up for a guy who has faced over 3000 batters in his short life. It's a joke rumor from a web site 95% of the people on RZ never heard of before.

I completely agree. I just don't see how we could build this team through free agency if over half of the team is an unknown or has been traded. There isn't enough free agents on the market to fill all of our needs if this trade was made. (3rd base would be the only position that would be settled)

(Can you really count Griffey's position settled? He can't play more than 110 games each year.)

Natty Redlocks
11-08-2006, 04:01 PM
Or, if Krivsky is set on dealing him, he may just send him away for the best pitcher he can get, whomever that may be.


This seems most likely to me; it's quite consistent with the Nats trade. Hellooo Rodrigo Lopez

Handofdeath
11-08-2006, 05:23 PM
There is no possible way Dunn plays for the Reds in 2008 for 13 million. In 2006 Albert Pujols made 14 million. Beltran, Vlad, Delgado and Andruw Jones made 13.5. Adam Dunn would need to have a 50/120/.290 season and play a competent left field. He would also need to show leadership and have a constant good work ethic. He has done none of these things to this point. Adam Dunn would have to change completely as a player and person. Will he do it? If he does will he become another Adrian Beltre if he signs a long term deal? I believe that Dunn will probably either be traded at the deadline next year or he simply won't be back with the Reds in 2008.

Spring~Fields
11-08-2006, 05:50 PM
There is no possible way Dunn plays for the Reds in 2008 for 13 million. In 2006 Albert Pujols made 14 million. Beltran, Vlad, Delgado and Andruw Jones made 13.5. Adam Dunn would need to have a 50/120/.290 season and play a competent left field. He would also need to show leadership and have a constant good work ethic. He has done none of these things to this point. Adam Dunn would have to change completely as a player and person. Will he do it? If he does will he become another Adrian Beltre if he signs a long term deal? I believe that Dunn will probably either be traded at the deadline next year or he simply won't be back with the Reds in 2008.

Well if the new hitting coach and AD click he might be right up there with those players that you have listed.

"Adam Dunn has agreed to a two-year deal with a club option for 2008. Dunn will get $7.5 million this year, $10.5 million in 2007 and $13 million if the option is picked up. The buyout of that year is $500,000."
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/02/so-much-for-that-dinner-dunn-signs.asp

TeamBoone
11-08-2006, 06:11 PM
If you'll read the article you'll find out what other teams opinions are of Dunn.

(As a side note, our CA source went out of his way to say that Dunn’s value is “plummeting”, saying that teams are not willing to trade “significant young talent” in exchange for a player “whose average goes down while his salary goes up.”)

I will say it again. Despite whatever his fans have to say or what stats that might get thrown out, MLB teams know the real story on Adam Dunn and they're not that impressed. The excessive strikeouts and the batting average do matter to them. They might not matter to some on this board and elsewhere but they do matter to MLB teams.

What about his 112 walks in 2006? Granted, the ball isn't put into play but it gets him on base and moves any runner on first into scoring position.

Unfortunately, walks do nothing for BA but they certainly shouldn't be discounted. If even half of them were translated into hits, AD's average would be in the 300's (.314 ish).... and he'd STILL have 66 walks to spare. That's the way I'd be looking at it... that BA is very very deceiving if they take a closer look.

RedLegSuperStar
11-08-2006, 06:22 PM
What about his 112 walks in 2006? Granted, the ball isn't put into play but it gets him on base and moves any runner on first into scoring position.

Unfortunately, walks do nothing for BA but they certainly shouldn't be discounted. If even half of them were translated into hits, AD's average would be in the 300's (.314 ish).... and he'd STILL have 66 walks to spare.

I think the walk stat gets overshadowed by the K's, average, and defense.

If I were Detroit and did infact reject this deal then they are stupid or they have another deal in mind for Bonderman.

Handofdeath
11-08-2006, 08:06 PM
What about his 112 walks in 2006? Granted, the ball isn't put into play but it gets him on base and moves any runner on first into scoring position.

Unfortunately, walks do nothing for BA but they certainly shouldn't be discounted. If even half of them were translated into hits, AD's average would be in the 300's (.314 ish).... and he'd STILL have 66 walks to spare. That's the way I'd be looking at it... that BA is very very deceiving if they take a closer look.

I don't discount them. Just as I don't put 100% stock in the tremendous strikeout totals. BUT they have to be seen as part of the big picture. I know of another player in the NL who walked over 100 times this past season and had 181 K's but he's going to be MVP. If the Reds are going to pay 7-10 million a year for Dunn then he is going to have to be putting the ball in play. They don't pay him that much so he can stand on 1st base watching somebody else try to do what they are paying him to do. He's not being paid so the Reds can sit him down and lecture him in the middle of a pennant race about his work habits. And he is certainly not being paid more each year for his numbers to go down each year. He's being paid to hit and to hit well.

Redsfan08
11-08-2006, 10:32 PM
bs

Spring~Fields
11-09-2006, 11:04 AM
What about his 112 walks in 2006? Granted, the ball isn't put into play but it gets him on base and moves any runner on first into scoring position.

Unfortunately, walks do nothing for BA but they certainly shouldn't be discounted. If even half of them were translated into hits, AD's average would be in the 300's (.314 ish).... and he'd STILL have 66 walks to spare. That's the way I'd be looking at it... that BA is very very deceiving if they take a closer look.

You're right BA alone is deceiving.

OBP takes the walks into account.

OBP On-base percentage
(H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

westofyou
11-09-2006, 11:14 AM
OBP takes the walks into account.

OBP On-base percentage
(H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

So does Runs Created, BTW here's the guys that created over 100 Runs in a season as a Red


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100

1 Pete Rose 13
2 Frank Robinson 8
T3 Vada Pinson 6
T3 Joe Morgan 6
T5 Johnny Bench 4
T5 Adam Dunn 4
T5 Barry Larkin 4
T8 Gus Bell 3
T8 Frank McCormick 3
T8 Tony Perez 3
T8 George Foster 3
T8 Ted Kluszewski 3

Then here's the ones who did it with a BA above .290


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
AVERAGE >= .290


1 Pete Rose 12
2 Frank Robinson 8
3 Vada Pinson 5
T4 Barry Larkin 4
T4 Joe Morgan 4
T6 Tony Perez 3
T6 Frank McCormick 3
T6 Gus Bell 3
T6 Ted Kluszewski 3
T10 Sean Casey 2
T10 Ival Goodman 2
T10 Sam Crawford 2
T10 George Foster 2
T10 Bobby Tolan 2
T10 Cy Seymour 2
T10 Ken Griffey Sr. 2

And here's the ones who did it with over 100 walks


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
WALKS >= 100


1 Joe Morgan 6
2 Adam Dunn 4
T3 Johnny Bench 1
T3 Pete Rose 1

And here's the ones who did it hitting under .270


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
WALKS >= 100
AVERAGE <= .270


1 Adam Dunn 4
2 Johnny Bench 1

Pretty plain to see why Dunn is so disparaged as a run producer, he does it differently then everyone else.

Finally here are the Reds with 100 Runs Created in a season ages 26 and under.



CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100

T1 Frank Robinson 6
T1 Vada Pinson 6
3 Adam Dunn 4
4 Johnny Bench 3
T5 Bobby Tolan 2
T5 Pete Rose 2
T5 Sam Crawford 2
T5 Gus Bell 2
T9 Felipe Lopez 1
T9 Eric Davis 1
T9 Sean Casey 1
T9 Lee May 1
T9 Kal Daniels 1
T9 Deron Johnson 1
T9 Wally Post 1
T9 Mike Donlin 1
T9 Ken Griffey Sr. 1
T9 Jimmy Barrett 1

Spring~Fields
11-09-2006, 11:33 AM
So does Runs Created, BTW here's the guys that created over 100 Runs in a season as a Red


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100

1 Pete Rose 13
2 Frank Robinson 8
T3 Vada Pinson 6
T3 Joe Morgan 6
T5 Johnny Bench 4
T5 Adam Dunn 4
T5 Barry Larkin 4
T8 Gus Bell 3
T8 Frank McCormick 3
T8 Tony Perez 3
T8 George Foster 3
T8 Ted Kluszewski 3

Then here's the ones who did it with a BA above .290


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
AVERAGE >= .290


1 Pete Rose 12
2 Frank Robinson 8
3 Vada Pinson 5
T4 Barry Larkin 4
T4 Joe Morgan 4
T6 Tony Perez 3
T6 Frank McCormick 3
T6 Gus Bell 3
T6 Ted Kluszewski 3
T10 Sean Casey 2
T10 Ival Goodman 2
T10 Sam Crawford 2
T10 George Foster 2
T10 Bobby Tolan 2
T10 Cy Seymour 2
T10 Ken Griffey Sr. 2

And here's the ones who did it with over 100 walks


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
WALKS >= 100


1 Joe Morgan 6
2 Adam Dunn 4
T3 Johnny Bench 1
T3 Pete Rose 1

And here's the ones who did it hitting under .270


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
WALKS >= 100
AVERAGE <= .270


1 Adam Dunn 4
2 Johnny Bench 1

Pretty plain to see why Dunn is so disparaged as a run producer, he does it differently then everyone else.

Finally here are the Reds with 100 Runs Created in a season ages 26 and under.



CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100

T1 Frank Robinson 6
T1 Vada Pinson 6
3 Adam Dunn 4
4 Johnny Bench 3
T5 Bobby Tolan 2
T5 Pete Rose 2
T5 Sam Crawford 2
T5 Gus Bell 2
T9 Felipe Lopez 1
T9 Eric Davis 1
T9 Sean Casey 1
T9 Lee May 1
T9 Kal Daniels 1
T9 Deron Johnson 1
T9 Wally Post 1
T9 Mike Donlin 1
T9 Ken Griffey Sr. 1
T9 Jimmy Barrett 1

AD is running with some pretty good company. Thanks WOY for giving us a better visual than what just glancing at some ESPN stats can give me when others and I don't look close enough. Paints a big clear picture.

It makes me want to say that the other 6-7 offensive players that the Reds toss out there are the ones letting the team down, along with 3/5's of the starting pitchers and several of the relievers. Somehow seems unjust to me to let the other offensive players escape scrutiny and to put it all on a Dunn or a Griffey.

dunner13
11-09-2006, 11:41 AM
If we cant get bonderman or some other young stud pitcher for dunn then we should just hold on to him and sign gil meche. Hes got a great arm, nasty stuff and could be a major sleeper for next year. We cant dump dunn just to get rid of his salary, maybe the new hitting coach can turn him around and get him hitting like he did when he first came up. If i remember right dunn was a .300 hitter in the minors, so maybe there is still some hope.

Handofdeath
11-09-2006, 01:33 PM
So does Runs Created, BTW here's the guys that created over 100 Runs in a season as a Red


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100

1 Pete Rose 13
2 Frank Robinson 8
T3 Vada Pinson 6
T3 Joe Morgan 6
T5 Johnny Bench 4
T5 Adam Dunn 4
T5 Barry Larkin 4
T8 Gus Bell 3
T8 Frank McCormick 3
T8 Tony Perez 3
T8 George Foster 3
T8 Ted Kluszewski 3

Then here's the ones who did it with a BA above .290


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
AVERAGE >= .290


1 Pete Rose 12
2 Frank Robinson 8
3 Vada Pinson 5
T4 Barry Larkin 4
T4 Joe Morgan 4
T6 Tony Perez 3
T6 Frank McCormick 3
T6 Gus Bell 3
T6 Ted Kluszewski 3
T10 Sean Casey 2
T10 Ival Goodman 2
T10 Sam Crawford 2
T10 George Foster 2
T10 Bobby Tolan 2
T10 Cy Seymour 2
T10 Ken Griffey Sr. 2

And here's the ones who did it with over 100 walks


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
WALKS >= 100


1 Joe Morgan 6
2 Adam Dunn 4
T3 Johnny Bench 1
T3 Pete Rose 1

And here's the ones who did it hitting under .270


CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100
WALKS >= 100
AVERAGE <= .270


1 Adam Dunn 4
2 Johnny Bench 1

Pretty plain to see why Dunn is so disparaged as a run producer, he does it differently then everyone else.

Finally here are the Reds with 100 Runs Created in a season ages 26 and under.



CINCINNATI REDS
MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
RUNS CREATED >= 100

T1 Frank Robinson 6
T1 Vada Pinson 6
3 Adam Dunn 4
4 Johnny Bench 3
T5 Bobby Tolan 2
T5 Pete Rose 2
T5 Sam Crawford 2
T5 Gus Bell 2
T9 Felipe Lopez 1
T9 Eric Davis 1
T9 Sean Casey 1
T9 Lee May 1
T9 Kal Daniels 1
T9 Deron Johnson 1
T9 Wally Post 1
T9 Mike Donlin 1
T9 Ken Griffey Sr. 1
T9 Jimmy Barrett 1

According to baseball-reference.com Dunn has only had over 100 runs created in a season twice. In 2004 he had 124. In 2005 he had 111. In 2006 he had 99.

westofyou
11-09-2006, 01:48 PM
According to baseball-reference.com Dunn has only had over 100 runs created in a season twice. In 2004 he had 124. In 2005 he had 111. In 2006 he had 99.

I use Total Baseballs numbers, they must have a different RC formula, Dunn has 106 in 2006 and 105 in 2002 by their count.

Handofdeath
11-09-2006, 03:59 PM
When I looked it up at baseball-reference.com they said there were 24 different ways to calculate it. I think the arguments here on Dunn when you get rid of the bluster and bullcrap is mostly about philosophical differences. The way that people get wound up on the subject of Dunn you usually only find when discussing politics or religion.

TeamBoone
11-09-2006, 10:21 PM
Happy Birthday Adam! I hope you're creating runs for the Reds for a long time.