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View Full Version : Tomo Ohka - Free Agent



TOBTTReds
11-07-2006, 01:34 PM
Haven't heard any one mention his name around here. Unless the Brewers have re-signed him, which I don't think they have, he is a free agent to be.

This would be a great guy to have on our staff. He is 30 years old and was paid 2.75 mil this year. What do others think?



NAME ERA WHIP H9 SLG FB% GB%
Tomo Ohka 4.82 1.37 9.09 .420 28.4% 42.6%


He has had a lot of injury problems. But wouldn't be a bad risk IMO. He is still relatively cheap.

RedsManRick
11-07-2006, 01:49 PM
His GB/FB isn't really an advantage these days as it's floated around 1/1 for a few years. He doesn't miss bats, posting an abysmal K/9 rates the last 3 years. He uses a lot of pitches, making him mostly a 5 innings guy. If I could get him as a 5th starter for 1.5-2MM tops for a year or two, sure I guess. Certainly not a guy I'd target or give 3+ years to though.

For a 5th starter, I'd be just as happy giving Claussen and Ramirez the chance to battle it out as they're both younger, cheaper, and have slightly more upside.

M2
11-07-2006, 01:50 PM
Ohka's got some butt ugly peripherals, but he's always gotten the job done (career 111 ERA+). You wouldn't want to spend a lot on him because you can't be sure when he hits his expiration date, but if he's inexpensive then he's a not a bad roll of the dice.

redsupport
11-07-2006, 01:55 PM
looks good an upgrade over michalak, et al.

TOBTTReds
11-07-2006, 02:08 PM
His GB/FB isn't really an advantage these days as it's floated around 1/1 for a few years. He doesn't miss bats, posting an abysmal K/9 rates the last 3 years. He uses a lot of pitches, making him mostly a 5 innings guy. If I could get him as a 5th starter for 1.5-2MM tops for a year or two, sure I guess. Certainly not a guy I'd target or give 3+ years to though.

For a 5th starter, I'd be just as happy giving Claussen and Ramirez the chance to battle it out as they're both younger, cheaper, and have slightly more upside.

As for the gb/fb ratio, don't know if it was an accident or not, but his 28% FB rate is decent enough.

For guys that had as many innings as he did (146 pitchers) he ranked 67th in pitches per inning, tied with AJ Burnett and Arroyo. So he is still in the upper half of that barely and he was coming off an injury.

I think he is worth a shot around 2.5 mil per for 2 years with incentives.

Heath
11-07-2006, 02:42 PM
looks good an upgrade over michalak, et al.

I'm an upgrade over Michalak. So is Raisor. And we're both cheaper. (Not easier, but cheaper. )

As long as Ohka doesn't want the bank - he needs a one year - low risk deal

RedsManRick
11-07-2006, 02:46 PM
As for the gb/fb ratio, don't know if it was an accident or not, but his 28% FB rate is decent enough.

For guys that had as many innings as he did (146 pitchers) he ranked 67th in pitches per inning, tied with AJ Burnett and Arroyo. So he is still in the upper half of that barely and he was coming off an injury.

I think he is worth a shot around 2.5 mil per for 2 years with incentives.

I'm not sure where you got the 28% FB rate at, but Fangraphs.com has him at 40 GB, 40 FB, 20 LD. His HR rate is average, but not a particular asset. I'm much more worried about a guy who averages less than 90 P/GS, more than 16 P/IP, and can't miss many bats. Put a below average defense behind him and look out.

I think 2.5 million isn't horrible, but I just don't see much of an upside. I'm a fan of using the 5th spot in the rotation to give innings to a guy who needs them to reach (or definitely fail to reach) his potential, rather than a veteran who you know will cap out at 160-180 below league average innings. If you're making a playoff push and need certainty, sure. But when you're still fishing for #3 starters, you need to keep opportunity open for younger, cheaper guys who can likely give you the same level of performance anyways. You only pay 2.5 million for essentially replacement level when that certainty is the difference between the playoffs and not.

M2
11-07-2006, 03:05 PM
While I agree that a better starter than Ohka should be a priority. He's been quite a bit better than replacement level during his career.

Now, I'm not sold that it will continue, but he does have a better career ERA+ than either Arroyo or Harang. If he's generally healthy, he's not a bad bet to give you league average performance, not a bad thing to have in the #4 slot.

TOBTTReds
11-07-2006, 03:16 PM
I'm much more worried about a guy who averages less than 90 P/GS, more than 16 P/IP, and can't miss many bats. Put a below average defense behind him and look out.


I agree with the 90 P/GS. I got the GB rate from baseball prospectus, it was for this year only.

Ravenlord
11-08-2006, 02:17 AM
with the signing of Dick Pole, i love the idea of Tomo Ohka for 2-3 million with a heavy incentive contract.

oneupper
11-08-2006, 08:47 AM
I'd be surprised to see Ohka sign anywhere for less than $4 million.

Heath
11-08-2006, 09:15 AM
I'd be surprised to see Ohka sign anywhere for less than $4 million.

Yep...agree.

Which begs the question. For the same price - who do you want, Lohse or Ohka?

We're on the hook for 4 Mill either way.

TOBTTReds
11-08-2006, 10:33 AM
Yep...agree.

Which begs the question. For the same price - who do you want, Lohse or Ohka?

We're on the hook for 4 Mill either way.

Ohka times 2. I have no faith in Lohse.

cumberlandreds
11-08-2006, 11:20 AM
I wouldn't touch Ohka with a ten foot Dick Pole. ;)

red-in-la
11-08-2006, 05:51 PM
I would only sign guys like this if I have Dave Duncan or Leo Mazone as my pitching coach....and then, they probably would threaten to quite if I tried.

I was just wondering the other day why the Cards can take Chris Carpenter (with a blown out shoulder) and many others like him who are below average pitchers and suddenly have tehm in the running for the Cy Young.

The same with the Braves while Mazone was there.....look at John Thompson as an example.....there are others.

Can anybody explain this one to me?

Falls City Beer
11-08-2006, 06:08 PM
I'd try to get Buchholz (yeah, I get it; go ahead and laugh). My guess is he'd be great in the pen if he fails in the rotation. And could be gotten fairly cheap.

He took some serious licks, bent like hell, but ultimately didn't break. And that in Minute Maid.

PuffyPig
11-08-2006, 06:32 PM
I'd try to get Buchholz (yeah, I get it; go ahead and laugh). My guess is he'd be great in the pen if he fails in the rotation. And could be gotten fairly cheap.

He took some serious licks, bent like hell, but ultimately didn't break. And that in Minute Maid.


I wasn't a huge fan of Bucky this year as he was getting beaten like a rented mule.

But he's got something many of our pitchers lack...upside.

If we could get him cheap, he's a low risk/high upside guy.

Highlifeman21
11-12-2006, 03:37 AM
I'd try to get Buchholz (yeah, I get it; go ahead and laugh). My guess is he'd be great in the pen if he fails in the rotation. And could be gotten fairly cheap.

He took some serious licks, bent like hell, but ultimately didn't break. And that in Minute Maid.


Ultimately, Buchholz may be closer material. I'm not convinced he'll make it as a starter, and you seem to be of the same opinion.

As for our in-house options, I'm definitely not convinced Lohse is rotation material, but I wouldn't mind giving him a good look as closer, since we currently lack one of those.

Regardless, the Reds desperately still need pitching, and I'm thinking we won't see that need addressed this offseason.

cincyinco
11-12-2006, 12:58 PM
Taylor Buchholz I thought, had an up and down year, but ultimately may find success in his next go around. He had a solid WHIP all of the year - rising as the season wore on. For the first half it was 1.15 and he sported a .240BAA with 64K in 96.2 innings. Pretty solid except for the ERA.

If you believe in those periphirals, and that he gave up fewer hits than innings pitched.. i'd think he'd be a low risk, high reward guy to give a shot. He got rocked here and there, but he also had some nice performances. Consistency seems to be the key with him, and given his previous injury history, its not exactly surprising IMO.

SteelSD
11-12-2006, 03:41 PM
Buchholz, with his miniscule BABIP (.258), huge HR rates (plagued him his entire career), and mediocre K rates is exactly the kind of pitcher to stay entirely away from.

Falls City Beer
11-12-2006, 04:16 PM
Buchholz, with his miniscule BABIP (.258), huge HR rates (plagued him his entire career), and mediocre K rates is exactly the kind of pitcher to stay entirely away from.

I'm thinking a bullpen conversion could help him. Plus he could be picked up for nothing. Better than anything the Reds have for a bullpen candidate. At least he's got an out pitch.

My guess is that Astros will convert him to the pen and have success with him there next season. They usually find a way to have success with marginal, surgery-altered arms. And the Reds never have success with those types, so yeah, maybe it is best to stay away from him.

Chip R
11-12-2006, 04:24 PM
Buchholz, with his miniscule BABIP (.258), huge HR rates (plagued him his entire career), and mediocre K rates is exactly the kind of pitcher to stay entirely away from.


Oh, you said the same thing about Eric Milton and look how well that turned out. Whoops, bad example. ;)

SteelSD
11-12-2006, 04:38 PM
I'm thinking a bullpen conversion could help him. Plus he could be picked up for nothing. Better than anything the Reds have for a bullpen candidate. At least he's got an out pitch.

My guess is that Astros will convert him to the pen and have success with him there next season. They usually find a way to have success with marginal, surgery-altered arms. And the Reds never have success with those types, so yeah, maybe it is best to stay away from him.

As long as they're not giving up anything of value, I don't mind taking a flier on a bullpen conversion. That being said, I'm not sure if having him pitch out of the pen will curb his HR rate.

SteelSD
11-12-2006, 04:40 PM
Oh, you said the same thing about Eric Milton and look how well that turned out. Whoops, bad example. ;)

Well, FCB does have Russ Ortiz on me, though, so I give him a wide berth. ;)

traderumor
11-13-2006, 07:50 AM
I'm thinking a bullpen conversion could help him. Plus he could be picked up for nothing. Better than anything the Reds have for a bullpen candidate. At least he's got an out pitch.

My guess is that Astros will convert him to the pen and have success with him there next season. They usually find a way to have success with marginal, surgery-altered arms. And the Reds never have success with those types, so yeah, maybe it is best to stay away from him.With respect to the Astros, such as...