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Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 04:21 PM
Reds, Outfielder Bubba Crosby Agree On 1-Year Contract



CINCINNATI - The Cincinnati Reds and free agent OF Bubba Crosby have agreed to terms on a 1-year Major League contract for the 2007 season, general manager Wayne Krivsky announced today. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.

Crosby, 30, last season appeared in 65 games for the New York Yankees and 22 games at Class AAA Columbus. In June he also made 3 rehabilitation appearances at Class A Tampa while recovering from a right hamstring injury.

Originally selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers with the 23rd pick of the first round of the June 1998 first-year player draft, in his career Crosby has appeared in 205 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Yankees. He was traded from the Dodgers to New York on July 31, 2003, along with RHP Scott Proctor, in exchange for 3B Robin Ventura.

Joseph
11-10-2006, 04:22 PM
Matt loves breaking news. :)

Superdude
11-10-2006, 04:26 PM
Yea! I'm sure Narron will have him in the cleanup spot by May. ;)

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 04:27 PM
Matt loves breaking news. :)

I live for this :)

Always Red
11-10-2006, 04:28 PM
"Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."

sigh...

VR
11-10-2006, 04:28 PM
First I saw the Reds signed Crosby, then I sat Still, now I Nash my teeth.


A no power, no speed OF.

Ltlabner
11-10-2006, 04:28 PM
Matt loves breaking news. :)


News breaks out...Matt breaks in....

Or is that when rashes break out? I can never remember.

dunner13
11-10-2006, 04:30 PM
I dont think bubbas to bad of an option off the bench. If he ever becomes our full time starter we really suck.

remdog
11-10-2006, 04:31 PM
Whew! Glad to see the Reds aren't being overshadowed by that silly little trade between New York and Detroit! :p:

Rem

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 04:31 PM
What the heck? Why in God's name do you sign a 30 year old OF with a career .555 OPS to a major league deal? I like Krivsky's activity, but geez does he scare the crap out of me.

His career SLG% is 2 points higher than Neifi Perez' career OBP. Read that sentence again. And again. Freaking waste of a 25 man roster spot.

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 04:32 PM
First I saw the Reds signed Crosby, then I sat Still, now I Nash my teeth.


A no power, no speed OF.

...he's not real Young either (30) :p:

Far East
11-10-2006, 04:37 PM
First I saw the Reds signed Crosby, then I sat Still, now I Nash my teeth.
Heck, 30 is Still Young!

Cyclone792
11-10-2006, 04:42 PM
Wayne isn't happy just wasting one roster spot with a worthless player in Juan Castro. He's instead shooting for the high goal of wasting two roster spots with worthless players now that he's added Crosby to the mix.

I would say that this bench next year may be the worst I've ever seen, but that would be a luxury at this point. Knowing our luck, on Opening Day Wayne and Jerry will have Castro starting at shortstop and Crosby starting in right field.

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 04:45 PM
Let's all settle down a bit....free agency doesn't technically start until Monday (I think)....it's not like this is the "big move" of a Carl Lindner offseason.

Just because they signed Bubba Crosby doesn't mean he'll make the team out of spring training. I would be surprised if, at most, he's a back end roster guy at best on the major league club.

Let's not get all worked up over nothing at this point.

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 04:47 PM
Let's all settle down a bit....free agency doesn't technically start until Monday (I think)....it's not like this is the "big move" of a Carl Lindner offseason.

Just because they signed Bubba Crosby doesn't mean he'll make the team out of spring training. I would be surprised if, at most, he's a back end roster guy at best on the major league club.

Let's not get all worked up over nothing.

Major League contracts are guaranteed, no? Crosby is the type of guy you invite to camp, not sign to a major league deal before the GM meetings. WK just cost himself a roster spot and gained absolutely nothing he couldn't get on March 15th if he still needed a sub-replacement level 5th OF.

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 04:52 PM
Major League contracts are guaranteed, no? Crosby is the type of guy you invite to camp, not sign to a major league deal before the GM meetings. WK just cost himself a roster spot and gained absolutely nothing he couldn't get on March 15th.

Even though it's a Major League contract, which is guaranteed, yes....I would guess he still has options.

Maybe Wayne figures he'd rather have Crosby than Denorfia coming off the bench.

KronoRed
11-10-2006, 04:53 PM
If this guy makes the opening day roster it spells doom for the season.

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 04:54 PM
Even though it's a Major League contract, which is guaranteed, yes....I would guess he still has options.

Maybe Wayne figures he'd rather have Crosby than Denorfia coming off the bench.

If this is true, then I have lost any faith in him. It's one thing to take this type of a move in isolation, but pair it with the Juan Castro deal, THE trade, etc. and I honestly am beginning to think that WK is not able to properly value players.

Slyder
11-10-2006, 04:55 PM
Wayne isn't happy just wasting one roster spot with a worthless player in Juan Castro. He's instead shooting for the high goal of wasting two roster spots with worthless players now that he's added Crosby to the mix.

I would say that this bench next year may be the worst I've ever seen, but that would be a luxury at this point. Knowing our luck, on Opening Day Wayne and Jerry will have Castro starting at shortstop and Crosby starting in right field.

Come on settle down, settle down. Can contracts also stipulate how much should Crosby not even make the team? Crosby would be good coming off the bench in cases where we need defense. He is like us signing Alex Sanchez, Dewayne Wise, etc we signed and had up here for a little bit.

Or would you rather be Houston who resigned Biggio for 5.15 mil for next year?

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 04:57 PM
If this is true, then I have lost any faith in him. It's one thing to take this type of a move in isolation, but pair it with the Juan Castro deal, THE trade, etc. and I honestly am beginning to think that WK is not able to properly value players.

Juan is fine as a defensive replacement late in games, or an occasional spot-start, or starting over Royce Clayton :)....not as an everyday starter

He's fine is Narron uses him right........that's another debate :D

wheels
11-10-2006, 04:57 PM
He's roster fodder for sure, but in the big picture, the Reds already have too much roster fodder.

I'll second the notion that the 2007 Reds could have the worst bench we've ever seen.

redsmetz
11-10-2006, 04:58 PM
Let's all settle down a bit....free agency doesn't technically start until Monday (I think)....it's not like this is the "big move" of a Carl Lindner offseason.

Just because they signed Bubba Crosby doesn't mean he'll make the team out of spring training. I would be surprised if, at most, he's a back end roster guy at best on the major league club.

Let's not get all worked up over nothing at this point.

Absolutely. A roster consists of 25 folks. Far too many people around here think that every signing is somehow going to be an everyday starter or part of the five man rotation.

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 05:01 PM
Come on settle down, settle down. Can contracts also stipulate how much should Crosby not even make the team? Crosby would be good coming off the bench in cases where we need defense. He is like us signing Alex Sanchez, Dewayne Wise, etc we signed and had up here for a little bit.

Or would you rather be Houston who resigned Biggio for 5.15 mil for next year?

See Larkin, Barry.

texasdave
11-10-2006, 05:01 PM
Terms of the contract were not disclosed.



The pictures will remain in a sealed envelope. :)

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 05:03 PM
Absolutely. A roster consists of 25 folks. Far too many people around here think that every signing is somehow going to be an everyday starter or part of the five man rotation.

Far too few people realize that good teams don't sign guys to that 25 man roster who would be average players on their AAA team. Just because you're not a starter doesn't mean you don't have to be able to contribute something of value. Crosby does nothing particularly well -- his roster spot could just as easily go to Norris Hopper.

In the minors Bubba put up this line: .279/.348/.419. It's not like he's a busted prospect with upside. There's no reason to go outside of the organization and take a spot away from a guy who you won't have to guarantee hundreds of thousands of dollars to.

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 05:06 PM
Everyone has an opinion...which is the great part.

I, for one, aren't going to make any judgements until the offseason pans out.

Cyclone792
11-10-2006, 05:07 PM
Come on settle down, settle down. Can contracts also stipulate how much should Crosby not even make the team? Crosby would be good coming off the bench in cases where we need defense. He is like us signing Alex Sanchez, Dewayne Wise, etc we signed and had up here for a little bit.

Or would you rather be Houston who resigned Biggio for 5.15 mil for next year?

"Settle down" is much the same of what I heard when the team acquired Juan Castro last season. Yep, that really got us far.

Since 2001, this team has been mired in such a miserable stretch that it's reached historic proportions for the franchise altogether. You want to know a decent chunk of why that's been the case? Because of one stupid decision after another coming out of the front office. Major stupid decisions. Minor stupid decisions. They just pile on top of each other, one after another.

Giving Bubba Crosby a major league contract qualifies as a stupid decision. He doesn't hit anything at all period, and his career OPS isn't much higher than that of Eric Milton, a pitcher.

But as Rick pointed out, this acquisition in isolation isn't a big deal. But it's the simple gateway of what this stupidity eventually leads to. If a front office is very much capable of making stupid minor decisions over and over, then it's also very much capable of making stupid major decisions in the future.

People wonder why some bad teams continue to remain bad. It's right in front of everyone's face down at GABP at this very moment.


Juan is fine as a defensive replacement late in games....not as an everyday starter.

Pure myth.

At best, Castro is below average defensively. He has absolutely zero business being on a major league roster, much less making the kind of money this organization will be paying him next season. Exhibit T of another stupid decision made by this franchise in the last half dozen seasons.

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 05:18 PM
$400,000 contract. Signing him to a Major League contract protects him on the 40 man roster. (reds.com)

That's all it does.

dfs
11-10-2006, 05:22 PM
What an odd signing.
Crosby hit as a ...what 26 year old in AAA, but he's never hit in the majors. He's nominally a centerfielder which is still nominally junior's spot. That leave Crosby as your centerfielder behind Junior, behind Freel, behind Deno....that's not a roster spot that you guarantee anybody. You invite a guy like that to camp with the lure that your current centerfielder is brittle and the aaaa guy is likely to see roster time with the big club.

I don't understand the move. Ages ago, Crosby was popular with the BP folks.

Falls City Beer
11-10-2006, 05:24 PM
Nothing like starting the offseason off with a no-upside player. Tony Womack anyone?

Patrick Bateman
11-10-2006, 05:24 PM
This is quite the head scratcher.

Like others have said, this move wont cost us a plethora of games, but it shows a poor judge of talent. He would be okay to have sitting in AAA, but I don't understand the need to give him a major league contract. He simply doesn't bring anything of use to the table. Better players will get minor league contracts.

jimbo
11-10-2006, 05:27 PM
Everyone has an opinion...which is the great part.

I, for one, aren't going to make any judgements until the offseason pans out.

Not rushing to judgement? What a concept. :thumbup:

Team Clark
11-10-2006, 05:34 PM
=Cyclone792;1190622At best, Castro is below average defensively. He has absolutely zero business being on a major league roster, much less making the kind of money this organization will be paying him next season. Exhibit T of another stupid decision made by this franchise in the last half dozen seasons.

I am not even sure I can put into words how false of a statement you have just made. You're not even offering it as opinion. I know you are frustrated with the Crosby signing, but sinking Juan is not neccesary. Considering he won at least 4 games that I can think of with his bat AND/OR glove this past season I can not imagine how he does not belong in a Major League uniform.

Just take a deep breath. Pick up the darts and wing them at the picture of Wayne. It will work itself out.

paintmered
11-10-2006, 05:38 PM
Bubba Crosby + Jerry Narron = Hacking Mass gold mine.

westofyou
11-10-2006, 05:43 PM
A 30 year old with 250 MLB at bats, if he ever wins a job it's more tribute to a Matt Stairs or Geronimo Berroa then anything else. Otherwise he's more bench ballast making 400 K, the game is full of them

vaticanplum
11-10-2006, 05:45 PM
Oh my god!!!! I LOOOVE Bubba Crosby! Y'all are nuts, this is awesome. He is Speedy Gonzales and decent defensively. He can't hit (he's had a few good spells, but yeah, mostly can't hit), but still, I love him. Wears his socks high sometimes too.

He's a great guy to have off the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. I like this signing a lot. Look, it's the first major move of the off-season; I don't think this is a signifier that they've forgotten about the pitching or offense.

wheels
11-10-2006, 06:06 PM
Oh my god!!!! I LOOOVE Bubba Crosby! Y'all are nuts, this is awesome. He is Speedy Gonzales and decent defensively. He can't hit (he's had a few good spells, but yeah, mostly can't hit), but still, I love him. Wears his socks high sometimes too.

He's a great guy to have off the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. I like this signing a lot. Look, it's the first major move of the off-season; I don't think this is a signifier that they've forgotten about the pitching or offense.

Thanks for the input Mrs. Narron.:D

Team Clark
11-10-2006, 06:13 PM
Thanks for the input Mrs. Narron.:D

Now THAT is Funny. :laugh:

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 06:17 PM
Another note (fox sports radio)...if he stays in the bigs, he gets the whole $400,000...if he spends his season in the minors he only gets $75,000.

I don't know the details of number of games, but it's not a big deal

Chip R
11-10-2006, 06:17 PM
Thanks for the input Mrs. Narron.:D


Don't you mean, "Mrs. Crosby?" ;)

Spring~Fields
11-10-2006, 06:22 PM
What the heck? Why in God's name do you sign a 30 year old OF with a career .555 OPS to a major league deal? I like Krivsky's activity, but geez does he scare the crap out of me.

His career SLG% is 2 points higher than Neifi Perez' career OBP. Read that sentence again. And again. Freaking waste of a 25 man roster spot.

Don't tell me this guy is going to go dumpster diving again!

IslandRed
11-10-2006, 06:24 PM
Another note (fox sports radio)...if he stays in the bigs, he gets the whole $400,000...if he spends his season in the minors he only gets $75,000.

I don't know the details of number of games, but it's not a big deal.

OK, if it's a split contract then cool. That's the type of contract given to guys who might make the team but are probably going to be stashed in Triple-A barring injuries.

Krusty
11-10-2006, 06:28 PM
I had to check to see if Dan O'Brien was back to run the GM side of this offseason.

Now if Krivsky is using this move as an appetizer to the offseason, it will be about time to serve the full-course meal.

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 06:38 PM
I am not even sure I can put into words how false of a statement you have just made. You're not even offering it as opinion. I know you are frustrated with the Crosby signing, but sinking Juan is not neccesary. Considering he won at least 4 games that I can think of with his bat AND/OR glove this past season I can not imagine how he does not belong in a Major League uniform.

Just take a deep breath. Pick up the darts and wing them at the picture of Wayne. It will work itself out.

That's a bit of a mis-statement too TC. Time-order is an oft-overlooked issue when it comes to "game-winning" events and player value. Sure, maybe he made a defensive stop that, had he not made, would've cost us a specific game. I'm glad he was in to make that play. However, what about that AB he had the inning before? Would a better hitter have driven in that run making the defensive stop unnecessary? What about a play somebody else made (or didn't make) in the 3rd inning. There are 100's of events which occur every game which, had they occurred differently, would've affected the outcome. Just because a given piece of straw breaks the camel's back, doesn't make that piece of straw any more or less valuable.

In discussing what has happened, the "when" question is vitally important to knowing the value of a given event. However, when looking to the future, the "when" question is virtually irrelevant, because you can't predict how a player's abilities will be distributed across those future opportunities. Sure, Castro (or whomever) will make, on average, more good defensive plays. And because of that, he'll also make more good defensive plays during those particularly valuable opportunities. But likewise, just as his glove was valuable last year in a few key spots, his anemic offensive production could just as likely come to bite us in the butt this year.

You hope to have a manager who does his best to maximize the value Juan can provide (e.g. playing him at 3rd in the 8th/9th after EE has hit and when the Reds have a 2 run lead to protect). Unfortunately, Narron ends up starting him at SS and giving him 4 AB that should go to somebody with a better stick. On average, unless you control very tightly the situations and opportunities to which he's exposed, his (arguable) defensive edge just doesn't make up for his (inarguable) offensive liability. Even the best manager only has a small influence on the "when" question for how those skills are used.

It's not so much that Juan is a horrible player. It's that by any standard which justifies giving Juan Castro a million bucks and a guaranteed roster spot, there are 50 other guys who won't sniff a major league roster.

vaticanplum
11-10-2006, 06:44 PM
Didn't we pay Tony Womack $1 or 2 million plus a couple of prospects? This is NOTHING like Tony Womack. This is a good defensive replacement bench-type for almost nothing.

My favorite quote so far pulled off my Yankees board: "Cashman should have held onto Bubba. He could have traded him to the Reds for Adam Dunn and Homer Bailey."

Superdude
11-10-2006, 06:44 PM
I'm not gonna freak out since this move has no major consequence, but WayneK really acts stoned some times. This move really could not be anymore unnecessary. This is one of those situations where I'm really not mad, but I'd like to phone Wayne and ask him if he was on acid this morning.

Edd Roush
11-10-2006, 06:47 PM
Did any one else see this quote dsmith posted

"We're getting a guy that's been on winning teams, that plays the game the right way, that always plays it hard and can play all three outfield positions," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "We're happy to have him."


I'm sure a lot of you will be very happy to see the "plays the game the right way" mantra.

Gallen5862
11-10-2006, 06:49 PM
I think the Bubba Crosby signing is a solid move. He is protected on the 40 man roster and provides more outfield depth. This was a good minor league 6 year free agent signing.

Spitball
11-10-2006, 06:53 PM
I can't understand why there would be a rush to sign this guy. Why not wait until other teams start pruning their rosters and rendering non-tendered players??? :confused: Surely there will be more Cody Ross types available at that point.

westofyou
11-10-2006, 06:56 PM
I'm sure a lot of you will be very happy to see the "plays the game the right way" mantra.
Sam Mejias played the game the right way, Bubba is the white mans Sam Mejias.

Kc61
11-10-2006, 06:56 PM
That's a bit of a mis-statement too TC. Time-order is an oft-overlooked issue when it comes to "game-winning" events and player value.

You hope to have a manager who does his best to maximize the value Juan can provide (e.g. playing him at 3rd in the 8th/9th after EE has hit and when the Reds have a 2 run lead to protect). Unfortunately, Narron ends up starting him at SS and giving him 4 AB that should go to somebody with a better stick. On average, unless you control very tightly the situations and opportunities to which he's exposed, his (arguable) defensive edge just doesn't make up for his (inarguable) offensive liability. Even the best manager only has a small influence on the "when" question for how those skills are used.

It's not so much that Juan is a horrible player. It's that by any standard which justifies giving Juan Castro a million bucks and a guaranteed roster spot, there are 50 other guys who won't sniff a major league roster.

Castro played in 54 games as a Red and had 95 at bats. How does that translate into a propensity by Narron to start him every day and give him 4 ABs?

The signing of Crosby is simply an attempt to get some outfield depth, which you need when you have only two real starting outfielders, one of whom gets injured every year. The signing of Castro is intended to give the Reds surehanded veteran defense principally for the late innings of close games when young, error prone infielders might not make the routine play.

I'm sure Crosby did not get a guaranteed contract, the Reds are perfectly free to send him down or cut him if they want. He takes up a 40-man roster spot which is fine with me; they won't have to cut Willie Mays to open up the slot.

Spring~Fields
11-10-2006, 06:57 PM
I had to check to see if Dan O'Brien was back to run the GM side of this offseason.

Now if Krivsky is using this move as an appetizer to the offseason, it will be about time to serve the full-course meal.

You know, we all know that there are just too many players out there that can hit and field for Krivsky to pick up and they don't cost outrageous amounts. Here this guy is tinkering with DFA types already, WHY? Last year when Narron and Krivsky came north with a bunch of bits and pieces that they eventually had to dump, I thought it was because Krivsky did not have time as the new GM and had to go with what he could scrounge up. Then he brought some of his pitching replacements in Joe Mays, Majewski, there were others etc. Now I really am wondering.

redsupport
11-10-2006, 07:09 PM
Ah the reminder of the great Ed Crosby

thatcoolguy_22
11-10-2006, 07:16 PM
Juan is fine as a defensive replacement late in games, or an occasional spot-start, or starting over Royce Clayton :)....not as an everyday starter

He's fine is Narron uses him right........that's another debate :D

IF narron uses him correctly! However it can be an incredibly difficult task to properly use a slowly aging, slow, poor hitting outfielder named Bubba though.

Also on a sidenote Can anyone name off the top of their head a single quality athlete ever named Bubba?

I am drawing a blank. Could be all of the moves WK has made in the last year. I'm still trying to figure out why D Wise wore a reds uni...

marcshoe
11-10-2006, 07:19 PM
Also on a sidenote Can anyone name off the top of their head a single quality athlete ever named Bubba?



Bubba Smith.

Bubba Franks.

Gallen5862
11-10-2006, 07:26 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=cin
11/10/06 Released RHP Jason Standridge; Signed OF Bubba Crosby to a one-year Major League contract.

This is interesting that Standridge was released.

Spring~Fields
11-10-2006, 07:27 PM
"We're getting a guy that's been on winning teams, that plays the game the right way, that always plays it hard and can play all three outfield positions," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "We're happy to have him."


Doesn't Denorfia and Freel play the outfield? Don't they always play it hard? Don't they play all three outfield positions?

Is Crosby an upgrade to Freel and Denorfia?

Spitball
11-10-2006, 07:27 PM
Bubba Smith.

Bubba Franks.

Bubba Gump...No, wait...Who was Bubba Gump?

fearofpopvol1
11-10-2006, 07:30 PM
Has anyone even considered for one moment that maybe this an implication of a trade that may happen? Maybe they're packaging up Denorfia and want to make sure they have a backup option.

Matt700wlw
11-10-2006, 07:31 PM
Bubba Gump...No, wait...Who was Bubba Gump?

Bubba the Love Sponge

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 07:39 PM
Has anyone even considered for one moment that maybe this an implication of a trade that may happen? Maybe they're packaging up Denorfia and want to make sure they have a backup option.

Because if they didn't get Crosby now, who knows if there will be a player of his caliber left come next spring?

Aronchis
11-10-2006, 07:42 PM
This wasn't even a move, just offseason clutter you see every GM make, yet this board thinks there is something big behind it:mooner:

traderumor
11-10-2006, 07:43 PM
Has anyone even considered for one moment that maybe this an implication of a trade that may happen? Maybe they're packaging up Denorfia and want to make sure they have a backup option.Not even for a second. Denorfia is a backup option if that's the best we can do, Crosby is a tumbleweed.

Spring~Fields
11-10-2006, 07:45 PM
This wasn't even a move, just offseason clutter you see every GM make, yet this board thinks there is something big behind it:mooner:

There is nothing behind it, but a waste of time and money. We all know that.

Aronchis
11-10-2006, 07:46 PM
There is nothing behind it, but a waste of time and money. We all know that.

You mean all 200,000 of it?

gm
11-10-2006, 07:47 PM
Bubba Gump...No, wait...Who was Bubba Gump?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubba_Gump_Shrimp_Company

"it's a household name"

Spring~Fields
11-10-2006, 07:49 PM
Not even for a second. Denorfia is a backup option if that's the best we can do, Crosby is a tumbleweed.

Can't you just see Crosby taking over Juniors position in the outfield because Crosby plays the game right and telling Junior that he can't play the game right anymore? :evil:

Didn't they just announce ticket increases for next year? :devil:

jmac
11-10-2006, 07:58 PM
i believe this will only end up being a "estaban yan" type deal and not the "bronson arroyo" everyone is looking for.
just hang on to your seats this off-season cause i believe wayne k will be wheelin and dealin.....

Team Clark
11-10-2006, 08:19 PM
That's a bit of a mis-statement too TC. Time-order is an oft-overlooked issue when it comes to "game-winning" events and player value. Sure, maybe he made a defensive stop that, had he not made, would've cost us a specific game. I'm glad he was in to make that play. However, what about that AB he had the inning before? Would a better hitter have driven in that run making the defensive stop unnecessary? What about a play somebody else made (or didn't make) in the 3rd inning. There are 100's of events which occur every game which, had they occurred differently, would've affected the outcome. Just because a given piece of straw breaks the camel's back, doesn't make that piece of straw any more or less valuable.

In discussing what has happened, the "when" question is vitally important to knowing the value of a given event. However, when looking to the future, the "when" question is virtually irrelevant, because you can't predict how a player's abilities will be distributed across those future opportunities. Sure, Castro (or whomever) will make, on average, more good defensive plays. And because of that, he'll also make more good defensive plays during those particularly valuable opportunities. But likewise, just as his glove was valuable last year in a few key spots, his anemic offensive production could just as likely come to bite us in the butt this year.

You hope to have a manager who does his best to maximize the value Juan can provide (e.g. playing him at 3rd in the 8th/9th after EE has hit and when the Reds have a 2 run lead to protect). Unfortunately, Narron ends up starting him at SS and giving him 4 AB that should go to somebody with a better stick. On average, unless you control very tightly the situations and opportunities to which he's exposed, his (arguable) defensive edge just doesn't make up for his (inarguable) offensive liability. Even the best manager only has a small influence on the "when" question for how those skills are used.

It's not so much that Juan is a horrible player. It's that by any standard which justifies giving Juan Castro a million bucks and a guaranteed roster spot, there are 50 other guys who won't sniff a major league roster.



Excellent argument. I agree with some of what you are saying but I stand by the fact that he helped in whole or in part the Reds win at least 4 probably 6 games. He played in 54 as role player. Getting timely base hits, Hitting Game Winning home runs, making stand out defensive plays and contributing regularly takes you OUT of the "Does not belong int eh Big Leagues" classification. IMO anyway. Castro is no Jeter, Crosby, Greene, Reyes but he is bona fide Major Leaguer who relies heavily on his excellent defense. That's my point.

RedsManRick
11-10-2006, 10:04 PM
My point TC is that the "timeliness" of his help mainly was a function of luck, not his talent. While you surely should appreciate the game winning base hit or defensive play, you shouldn't, in my opinion, plan on getting timely contributions from anybody in the future. You should plan on getting their normal skill set distributed accross whatever opportunities may come. Giving them extra credit for a lucky string of opportunities is folly.

Particularly with defense, you have to assume that the plays he made would not have been made by somebody else if you want to give him extra credit for those. You also have to think that the player he's playing instead of would not have hit better in his ABs. You also have to think that he'll continue to get that many opportunities in the future to make a difference.

It's like the ARod argument. I'd rather a homer in the 5th inning that puts you up 2 than a single in the 9th to tie it. The reporters like the walk off hit because it's a better story and the fans tend to remember the last thing you do. People (all people) have issuses properly weighting their experiences. They give a disproportionate amount of weight to unusually "flashy" and the most recent events (scientific fact here).

This tendency particularly favors late inning defensive replacements, who, in my opinion simply aren't that valuable. Sure, give one defensive utility guy a roster spot. But I don't think you need to pay him a million bucks because there are plenty of no-hit all glove guys out there. Futuremore, you better be DARN sure that he's explemplary defensively because that's all he's bringing. I know Castro was great 3 or 4 years ago. But I'm not convinced he still is that player. And as for a guy like Crosby, well, he never was a defense first guy and offensively he's closer to Milton that Castro...

One thing I think is true for all industries, all walks of life, is that when we're invested in it, we lose complete objectivety. I'm sure you know more about baseball than I ever will from the inside perspective TC, but everything I have learned suggests that a guy like Castro, at this point in his career, just doesn't make enough on the field difference --- compared to the player who could otherwise have his roster spot --- to justify his presence. I'm not saying he doesn't have skills. He's a much better defender than I am. But that also doesn't make him better than somebody with a different set of skills who might otherwise be that 25th man. I think we often see cases where managers (in particular) get so hung up on the idea of a guy being "a good guy to have around" or "playing the game right" that they only consider the "Castro vs. no Castro and a 24 man roster" perspective, rather than the "Castro vs. 23 year old defensive wiz" or "Castro vs. platoon guy with pop" perspective which is what the real situation is.

Sure he's a nice guy to have around when the alternative is not having anybody at all. But if you make the alternative a real option, a real player who could contribute in another way, his skill set becomes a lot less attractive.

jmcclain19
11-10-2006, 10:19 PM
If you take moment - replace "Bubba Crosby" with "Scott Hatteberg" or "Rich Aurilia" and this thread has played out before.

Superdude
11-10-2006, 10:32 PM
If you take moment - replace "Bubba Crosby" with "Scott Hatteberg" or "Rich Aurilia" and this thread has played out before.

Except when you take into account the fact that Crosby, at 30 years old, has never even hinted at the ability to play above AA.



"We're getting a guy that's been on winning teams, that plays the game the right way, that always plays it hard and can play all three outfield positions," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "We're happy to have him."

Is it just me or does this make anyone else wanna puke? I lose more faith in Krivsky everyday.

Will M
11-10-2006, 10:34 PM
Crosby is either the 5th outfielder or in AAA.
He won't be getting 400 ABs.

Slyder
11-10-2006, 11:28 PM
Crosby is either the 5th outfielder or in AAA.
He won't be getting 400 ABs.

I would be surprised to see him get 150 for the season.

SteelSD
11-10-2006, 11:48 PM
Crosby is either the 5th outfielder or in AAA.
He won't be getting 400 ABs.

That's virtually the same thing folks said in defense of the Joe Mays signing.

We know how that worked out.

Slyder
11-11-2006, 12:18 AM
That's virtually the same thing folks said in defense of the Joe Mays signing.

We know how that worked out.

Then how come Alex Sanchez didnt get a chance last year if all these moves will end up like that? No team has 40 "Cant lose" players and spects on their 40 man rosters. This is just roster fodder and we are paying him the minimum at most for a guy, just like we did with Alex Sanchez (who sat at AAA all year, if not given his walking papers). I just cant get angry or care about this move either way because I would put most long shots at the track at better odds than Bubba Crosby making significant impact either way.

TOBTTReds
11-11-2006, 12:18 AM
That's virtually the same thing folks said in defense of the Joe Mays signing.

We know how that worked out.

We had a lack of options at that point. Atleast we have 3 bonified OF'ers and one who should be there soon in Deno. We had 3 pitchers when we need 5, Mays was one of about 84 contending, and no better or worse than anyone else really, maybe other than Homer.

Danny Serafini
11-11-2006, 12:47 AM
For the record Joe Mays only had 9 at bats last season. ;)

redsupport
11-11-2006, 01:07 AM
crosby is an ok fifth outfielder the problem is we dont have a second or third outfielder

Cyclone792
11-11-2006, 01:18 AM
I am not even sure I can put into words how false of a statement you have just made. You're not even offering it as opinion. I know you are frustrated with the Crosby signing, but sinking Juan is not neccesary. Considering he won at least 4 games that I can think of with his bat AND/OR glove this past season I can not imagine how he does not belong in a Major League uniform.

Just take a deep breath. Pick up the darts and wing them at the picture of Wayne. It will work itself out.

Juan Castro - Batting Runs Above Replacement for his career = -43 runs.

Or, how about this one:

CAREER
MODERN (1900-)
RCAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME RATE PLAYER LEAGUE RCAA
1 Bill Bergen 29 1.28 4.45 -312
2 Hal Lanier 47 2.03 4.30 -257
3 Skeeter Webb 48 2.33 4.82 -176
4 Rafael Belliard 49 2.24 4.60 -177
5 Mike Ryan 49 2.05 4.19 -143
6 Bobby Wine 51 2.23 4.41 -216
7 Billy Hunter 51 2.43 4.74 -139
8 Tommy Thevenow 52 2.77 5.33 -351
9 Bob Lillis 52 2.34 4.48 -141
10 Willie Miranda 53 2.54 4.78 -110
11 Rey Ordonez 53 2.78 5.21 -208
12 Matt Walbeck 54 2.82 5.26 -154
13 Juan Castro 54 2.78 5.18 -132
14 Freddie Maguire 54 3.06 5.67 -151
15 Doug Flynn 54 2.43 4.49 -228
16 Virgil Stallcup 55 2.83 5.12 -144
17 Rabbit Warstler 56 2.97 5.35 -267
18 Andres Thomas 56 2.49 4.44 -140
19 Dal Maxvill 58 2.49 4.32 -199
20 Paul Casanova 58 2.41 4.17 -146

Minimum 2,000 plate appearances

Since 1900, Juan Castro is the 13th worst hitter in RC/27 relative to the league average. I don't even know how to begin to describe how lousy a hitter one has to be to accomplish that feat.

And this is a guy we're paying nearly $1 million bucks a year for the next two years.

Sorry, TC, I'm not sinking Juan Castro. If you believe that the above data is false, feel free, but you'd be completely inaccurate in doing so. I'm stating what Juan Castro is, which is nothing more than a waste of a roster spot.

KronoRed
11-11-2006, 01:20 AM
For the record Joe Mays only had 9 at bats last season. ;)
Same quality as Crosby probably :evil:

Ron Madden
11-11-2006, 05:16 AM
Everyone has an opinion...which is the great part.

I, for one, aren't going to make any judgements until the offseason pans out.

Or untill you hear what Marty has to say? :laugh:

Ron Madden
11-11-2006, 05:42 AM
I am not even sure I can put into words how false of a statement you have just made. You're not even offering it as opinion. I know you are frustrated with the Crosby signing, but sinking Juan is not neccesary. Considering he won at least 4 games that I can think of with his bat AND/OR glove this past season I can not imagine how he does not belong in a Major League uniform.

Just take a deep breath. Pick up the darts and wing them at the picture of Wayne. It will work itself out.

TC, I can't find the words to accurately describe just how much I disagree.

Wayne has better and cheaper options than Juan Castro or Bubba Crosby, this makes no sense at all.

jpurdy974
11-11-2006, 08:47 AM
He suffered a hamstring injury last year so he fits right in with this team. Now the question is...Is he scrappy?

redsmetz
11-11-2006, 09:29 AM
Everyone has an opinion...which is the great part.

I, for one, aren't going to make any judgements until the offseason pans out.

I agree. I'm not going to get my shorts in a bunch all winter over minor moves like this. Somewhere on this thread or over on the ORG, someone aptly noted that the Reds have placed on the 40 man roster those they intend to protect from the Rule V draft. They still have open slots to put anyone they might draft or sign as a FA. I don't recall the number, but I think we had about 4 or 5 slots open. This really is no biggie and if each move like this is "jumping the shark" or showing this will be a bad offseason, sheesh - I've got more important things to worry about.

Always Red
11-11-2006, 09:31 AM
The only way this makes any sense is if Crosby has options left, and can be shuttled from Louisville to Cincinnati as the need arises.

Given his age, I'm guessing he does not.

One thing we've learned is that Krivsky signs guys and plays them. Bubba is a Red, and is now our 4th OF, I fear.

I also am beginning to lose faith in Kriv; but I'll wait (and hope) and see how the rest of the offseason goes.

BTW, I'll never understand all the Juan Castro angst here. He's a utility IF, for Pete's sake, and he's got a better glove than our current 3B, SS or 2B, unfortunately. I, for one, could see how FeLo's defense had improved once Castro joined the team, I think Castro was working with him, IIRC? Plus, he's had some decent clutch hits over the last year. If he's a starter, or bats more than 150 times for this team, then I agree, that's no good. :dunno:

But he's strictly a role player. I don't care what they pay him; that's between Castro and the FO.

Superdude
11-11-2006, 09:37 AM
Here's some great redreporter quotes...


Some people put a pot in the middle of the board to be paid out on Free Parking. Not Bubba Crosby. He knows how to play every game the right way.


Crosby's game has savvy, there's absolutely no questioning his focus and commitment, and he runs out to his position. Luckily, you know this guy is going to get 3 starts a week with Narron as the manager. He recognizes the value of hustle. Awesome. I'm psyched for this offseason.


Crosby's best season was 2005 (age 28) when he put up the following line: .276/.304/.327, all career highs. Maybe this year he finally puts it all together and harnesses his awesome talent.

marcshoe
11-11-2006, 11:12 AM
One thing we've learned is that Krivsky signs guys and plays them. Bubba is a Red, and is now our 4th OF, I fear.



Maybe Krivsky just wanted to make people appreciate Todd Hollandsworth. :eek:

Matt700wlw
11-11-2006, 12:08 PM
Or untill you hear what Marty has to say? :laugh:

I don't agree with everything he says.....most things, but not everything.

I also haven't heard his thoughts on this....

Team Clark
11-11-2006, 01:16 PM
Juan Castro - Batting Runs Above Replacement for his career = -43 runs.

Or, how about this one:

CAREER
MODERN (1900-)
RCAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME RATE PLAYER LEAGUE RCAA
1 Bill Bergen 29 1.28 4.45 -312
2 Hal Lanier 47 2.03 4.30 -257
3 Skeeter Webb 48 2.33 4.82 -176
4 Rafael Belliard 49 2.24 4.60 -177
5 Mike Ryan 49 2.05 4.19 -143
6 Bobby Wine 51 2.23 4.41 -216
7 Billy Hunter 51 2.43 4.74 -139
8 Tommy Thevenow 52 2.77 5.33 -351
9 Bob Lillis 52 2.34 4.48 -141
10 Willie Miranda 53 2.54 4.78 -110
11 Rey Ordonez 53 2.78 5.21 -208
12 Matt Walbeck 54 2.82 5.26 -154
13 Juan Castro 54 2.78 5.18 -132
14 Freddie Maguire 54 3.06 5.67 -151
15 Doug Flynn 54 2.43 4.49 -228
16 Virgil Stallcup 55 2.83 5.12 -144
17 Rabbit Warstler 56 2.97 5.35 -267
18 Andres Thomas 56 2.49 4.44 -140
19 Dal Maxvill 58 2.49 4.32 -199
20 Paul Casanova 58 2.41 4.17 -146

Minimum 2,000 plate appearances

Since 1900, Juan Castro is the 13th worst hitter in RC/27 relative to the league average. I don't even know how to begin to describe how lousy a hitter one has to be to accomplish that feat.

And this is a guy we're paying nearly $1 million bucks a year for the next two years.

Sorry, TC, I'm not sinking Juan Castro. If you believe that the above data is false, feel free, but you'd be completely inaccurate in doing so. I'm stating what Juan Castro is, which is nothing more than a waste of a roster spot.

My question would be this? Why are you comparing him to players who are mostly starters and he is known for his defense? We all know Castro is not a stellar hitter. Although he has won a few games with his bat. Castro is better defensively than a good number of Major Leaguers. You know that.

VI_RedsFan
11-11-2006, 01:42 PM
My question would be this? Why are you comparing him to players are mostly starters and he is known for his defense? We all know Castro is not a stellar hitter. Although he has won a few games with his bat. Castro is better defensively than a good number of Major Leaguers. You know that.

Amen to that, TC.

Juan Castro may be one of the better defensive shortstops in the MLB, yet he is always bashed by people on this board because he can't hit. Why do I never hear any mention of Miguel Perez here? Oh yeah, because he can't hit. The fact that he is the best defensive catcher in our system is irrelevent. Brad Ausmus and Mike Matheny can't hit, but do they deserved to be bashed because of that, eventhough they are great defensively? No.

I don't see why so many people here are giving Krivsky so much crap about signing Crosby. We are giving him $400,000 for one year...that is nothing in Major League Baseball these days. Kriv didn't bring him here to be our everyday RF, he brought him here to add some outfield depth. To tell you the truth, I would rather give Crosby $400,000 to come here and give his all every game than give Jose Guillen 10 million to come here and run his mouth.

I don't mean this to sound like a rant. I'm just saying you don't need to have every player at each position be great hitters to have a good team.

Team Clark
11-11-2006, 01:53 PM
Ask the Detroit Tigers what is like to have Bad Defense in crucial situations. I'd rather have Castro at 3b than EE in the 9th, or at SS instead of Rolls Royce. I'd suffice it to say that a majority of this board would as well. I can remember Castro starting a game ending DP at 3B that EE more than likely would not have been able to get a glove on. I also remember two plays on back to back nights where Castro made sharp plays in the hole that Aurilia and Clayton dream about. Each saved a run and preserved a win. I can remember a game winning HR, a Triple that he scored and won the game and a critical double that did the same. An anomoly? Maybe.

I like what Redsmanrick says but I also know that put in the same roles there are other players more likely to fail. I'd rather have Aurilia at the plate with a runner on 2nd than Castro. Then again I'd rather have Juan up than LaRue. Situations may find you but the manager can also find you the situation. I'm not professing that he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. However, to say he is an unworthy Major Leaguer is a false statement.

Cyclone has a good argument and is a sharp poster. True, Juan as your starting SS could be very detrimental to your offense. His statistical chart shows you what is likely to happen. Let's face facts... that is not why Juan is a Red. He's a Red to play Defense and give someone a day off. I'll pay a Million to a guy that has a world class glove and tutor the guys that need to bring their game up. A Million dollars in today's game is nothing.

Falls City Beer
11-11-2006, 02:07 PM
A Million dollars in today's game is nothing.

I've heard that one before. Sure it's nothing, till the owners start *****ing about tightening the belt. (I'm not saying Castellini's done that yet, just that I've heard that saw before).

mth123
11-11-2006, 02:11 PM
I don't really have an issue with Crosby because I think he won't go north after spring training ends. The Reds simply put him on the roster to protect him in Rule 5. Everyone who needs protected already is, and the spot was open.

As for Castro, the real crux of the argument is whether you believe that Castro deserves his defensive rep anymore. I think most accept that he isn't a good hitter or starting quality. Its just, he isn't as good defensively as was in the days when he was Larkin's caddy. He seems to have lost a step (or more). He is as smooth and fluid as always on the balls he gets to and seems to always make a good throw, but if his range is dropping, then his real area of value is compromised. Say a Jerry Gil could play the same role for $350K, then that $650K difference could matter. Last year, for example, the Reds settled for Chris Hammond for 800K as a LH in the pen. Could some one better have been on the team for $1.5 million instead? I think this is what everyone is complaining about. The Reds have worse problems than Castro and in the scheme of things it may not matter much but this team needs to guard every penny.

westofyou
11-11-2006, 02:23 PM
I don't mean this to sound like a rant. I'm just saying you don't need to have every player at each position be great hitters to have a good team.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/25/AR2006102502048.html


The Cardinals' grand plan, as explained this week by Tony La Russa, is to have "12 to 15 core players" around whom the franchise is built and maintains its excellence for long periods of time. These golden dozen are the guys you pay the serious money, whether you develop them yourself or sign them as free agents. Once you get Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Mark Mulder, Jason Isringhausen, David Eckstein, Yadier Molina and few other key building blocks, you pay market prices to keep them. However, with the other half of your roster, you rebuild and retool almost every year, trying to find roughly equal talent at considerably lower prices. That's how ex-Nat Preston Wilson ends up starting World Series games in left field while Gary Bennett gets the best seat in the house at new Busch -- as the Cards' almost-never-used backup catcher.

By contrast, ultra-rich teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can afford considerably more "core" players and, when they feel especially greedy, pay above market prices for them. Their bench players often make a pretty penny, too. Only the 23rd to 25th men are expendable. If you want to hear sad, just listen to the off-the-record laments of any Orioles manager of the last 10 years as he talks about how many players on the Yankees' bench he'd love to steal and put in the Baltimore lineup -- starting that night.

The '91-to-'05 Atlanta Braves were built along the same lines as the Cards with an emphasis on a 12-to-15-man core. That's why when you get such a player, like Alfonso Soriano with the Nationals, it is so hard to imagine losing him. Once you get a true core star in your hands, you never really know when you'll have an equivalent opportunity to replace him. It can be a long wait.

Spring~Fields
11-11-2006, 02:24 PM
The problem with some of these “role” players is they cannot fill a need, they cannot produce when it is needed and to the extent that is needed to help overcome the opposition, they are really not a backup at all. Their lack of talent and ability to perform becomes goal blocking and a hindrance to the team and fans.

In sports such as baseball, slumps, injuries and other are just a natural part of the sport, a natural part of the game, every season they will occur. During the long season of 162 games when these days off, injuries, slumps, whatever occur the manager of the Reds has to have players who are more than just role players to maintain a level of success.

Narron has to have players that have the skills and talent to step in to fill the role, for example of an injured Griffey, Freel, a slumping Phillips, Larue or a guy like Encarcion or Dunn where a few days off might actually help them, not punish, but actually help them.

These inadequate, underachieving role guys taking up roster space, salary and time that are not able to fill the needs when the regulars for whatever reason are unable to perform, leaves the Reds sunk with no go to guys and games are lost that might have been wins.

Then the end of a given season comes, the Reds can end up just 3.5 like this season, to seven games out of winning a division which is not very much, just four more wins or seven more wins. During that 162 games, if the talent pool that Narron has to use was truly adequate, that might be the difference of another below .500 season as in the past five years running at least vs. a winning team and maybe even a division title. The Reds GM cannot afford to take flyers on players that cannot or have not shown the talent that Narron needs to guide this team to the plus side of the win column.

Also many posters on this board have done fine work in a great effort to articulate, to show and to teach each us of regarding negative run differential, defense and pitching to various other hitting production examples, to show us where and how the Reds have been lacking to get to the other side of the .500 season. They are not wrong, and it is a must that the front office make the proper and critical personnel decisions, or over and over the competition is going to get the trophy and respect. 9mil on Milton is a negative, so is 75k on a 30 year old never been Crosby. There is a middle ground that Krivsky and associates can achieve and must achieve or the Reds and their fans will continue to see what they have already experienced for many years running now.

Yes, a move like Crosby is no big deal, one way or another, then why make the move to begin with?

What’s the problem?

The problem is that Crosby is an indicator and an indication that we will continue to see the same mistakes that led to below .500 clubs repetitiously in the past reoccur next season and so forth. Narron and Krivsky came north last year after evaluating the talent, the Reds situation and came away with many players that had to be dumped and acquired many others that turned out to be a bust for one reason or another, this Crosby move doesn’t indicate much learning from last year.

Handofdeath
11-11-2006, 02:28 PM
Juan Castro - Batting Runs Above Replacement for his career = -43 runs.

Or, how about this one:

CAREER
MODERN (1900-)
RCAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME RATE PLAYER LEAGUE RCAA
1 Bill Bergen 29 1.28 4.45 -312
2 Hal Lanier 47 2.03 4.30 -257
3 Skeeter Webb 48 2.33 4.82 -176
4 Rafael Belliard 49 2.24 4.60 -177
5 Mike Ryan 49 2.05 4.19 -143
6 Bobby Wine 51 2.23 4.41 -216
7 Billy Hunter 51 2.43 4.74 -139
8 Tommy Thevenow 52 2.77 5.33 -351
9 Bob Lillis 52 2.34 4.48 -141
10 Willie Miranda 53 2.54 4.78 -110
11 Rey Ordonez 53 2.78 5.21 -208
12 Matt Walbeck 54 2.82 5.26 -154
13 Juan Castro 54 2.78 5.18 -132
14 Freddie Maguire 54 3.06 5.67 -151
15 Doug Flynn 54 2.43 4.49 -228
16 Virgil Stallcup 55 2.83 5.12 -144
17 Rabbit Warstler 56 2.97 5.35 -267
18 Andres Thomas 56 2.49 4.44 -140
19 Dal Maxvill 58 2.49 4.32 -199
20 Paul Casanova 58 2.41 4.17 -146

Minimum 2,000 plate appearances

Since 1900, Juan Castro is the 13th worst hitter in RC/27 relative to the league average. I don't even know how to begin to describe how lousy a hitter one has to be to accomplish that feat.

And this is a guy we're paying nearly $1 million bucks a year for the next two years.

Sorry, TC, I'm not sinking Juan Castro. If you believe that the above data is false, feel free, but you'd be completely inaccurate in doing so. I'm stating what Juan Castro is, which is nothing more than a waste of a roster spot.


Equations, equations, and more equations. We're not discussing mathematics, we are discussing baseball. Why did the Reds sign Castro? Because he's good defensively. Is he great with the bat? No. Has he done some timely hitting though? Yes. Throw whatever math out there you want. Most owners and GM's don't know about this sabermetrics crap and don't care and they shouldn't. There are 24 different formulas to come up with Runs Created. What does that tell you? And Cyclone I find your statement "If you believe that the above data is false, feel free, but you'd be completely inaccurate in doing so." a disrepectful comment not unlike that of a petulant teenager. You are basically saying "Feel free to disagree but I'm right." Not cool.

westofyou
11-11-2006, 02:30 PM
Most owners and GM's don't know about this sabremetrics crap and don't care and they shouldn't.
Hyperbole much?

Handofdeath
11-11-2006, 02:39 PM
Hyperbole much?

Perhaps, but I don't think that every baseball question has to, can be, or should be answered with an equation and a 5,000 word dissertation.

SteelSD
11-11-2006, 02:51 PM
Perhaps, but I don't think that every baseball question has to, can be, or should be answered with an equation and a 5,000 word dissertation.

Apparently, all that's required to answer any baseball question is "Stats suck, you suck, and I'm right because I say so."

jimbo
11-11-2006, 03:01 PM
Apparently, all that's required to answer any baseball question is "Stats suck, you suck, and I'm right because I say so."

That could be said about a lot of people here. There are a select few here who protray their "opinion" as absolute. For some it's, "Stats say it all, and I'm right because I say so."

A-Dub
11-11-2006, 03:02 PM
I'm thrilled :rolleyes:

Team Clark
11-11-2006, 04:01 PM
I've heard that one before. Sure it's nothing, till the owners start *****ing about tightening the belt. (I'm not saying Castellini's done that yet, just that I've heard that saw before).

FCB You have a REALLY good point there. There is quite a bit of "case law" to back up your point.

Tom Servo
11-11-2006, 04:58 PM
I'll take him over Wise.

camisadelgolf
11-11-2006, 06:12 PM
I may be the only, but I actually like the signing. He has a little bit of pop in his swing, and he hits from the left side. He is also another player with playoff experience (which is something Krivsky has been getting a lot of since he took over).

It reminds me of that "stupid" David Ross trade. We already had LaRue and Valentin, and there was no need for a third catcher. And before Ross joined the Reds (at the age of 29), his career minor league average was .259, and in the bigs, it was .217. Well, look how that senseless transaction turned out. As a result, I've got faith in this transaction.

SteelSD
11-11-2006, 06:30 PM
There are a select few here who protray their "opinion" as absolute. For some it's, "Stats say it all, and I'm right because I say so."

You're entitled to your opinion, but what you posted has been thoroughly debunked ad infinum. Cyclone isn't right about Juan Castro because he says so. He's right about Juan Castro because Juan Castro's performance says so.

And there's a huge difference between an opinion supported by mountains of data and an opinion supported by nothing.

Tom Servo
11-11-2006, 07:00 PM
I may be the only, but I actually like the signing. He has a little bit of pop in his swing, and he hits from the left side. He is also another player with playoff experience (which is something Krivsky has been getting a lot of since he took over).

It reminds me of that "stupid" David Ross trade. We already had LaRue and Valentin, and there was no need for a third catcher. And before Ross joined the Reds (at the age of 29), his career minor league average was .259, and in the bigs, it was .217. Well, look how that senseless transaction turned out. As a result, I've got faith in this transaction.
Not to metion both the Crosby signing and the Ross trade involve jettisoning Standridge. Hmm...

Handofdeath
11-11-2006, 07:04 PM
Apparently, all that's required to answer any baseball question is "Stats suck, you suck, and I'm right because I say so."

Evidently, I have a struck a nerve. And in doing so your response has proved my point. I disagree with your line of thinking and your response is self righteous indignation. I never said stats suck. I never said anybody sucked. But I will tell you what I dislike. I dislike it when people are discussing baseball and every single question or transaction discussed brings in 23 different charts. I dislike when I'm reading someone's response to a post they didn't agree with and they have to write a paragraph on every sentence that said something they didn't like. I dislike people jumping and down and screaming and dissecting the signing of a bench player. You want to disagree? Fine. But my God, Juan Castro and Bobby Crosby?!? Why are we spending our time with this? Let's discuss The Reds getting a few starting pitchers. Let's discuss Griffey or Dunn. Disagree with me? That's cool. Want a bring a few stats in to prove your point? That's cool. But we don't need this whole attitude of " My way of thinking is the only way. Don't you disagree with me." It is just baseball. We are not trying to fix Social Security here. Perspective.

Falls City Beer
11-11-2006, 07:26 PM
Evidently, I have a struck a nerve. And in doing so your response has proved my point. I disagree with your line of thinking and your response is self righteous indignation. I never said stats suck.

No, but you did call sabremetrics "crap."

Superdude
11-11-2006, 07:31 PM
It is just baseball. We are not trying to fix Social Security here.

Go find yourself a social security forum then! :D (I'll throw that in their just so my joke doesn't start another fight)

RedsManRick
11-11-2006, 07:34 PM
Geez guys. Don't you know the world is flat. Your "evidence" is just BS....

Team Clark
11-11-2006, 07:58 PM
Geez guys. Don't you know the world is flat. Your "evidence" is just BS....

All the evidence you need is the baselines are flat and the grass looks even...

Anyone ever see the West Wing Episode where the Scientists want the Maps to reflect Each Country's/Continent's real proportions? Makes you think! :laugh:

tripleaaaron
11-11-2006, 09:04 PM
I think Krivsky just has a good sense of humor, binging in a Contalingus, than bringing in pitching coach Dick Pole, and now a guy named Bubba, Coco Crisp is next on the wish list, I love it

sweetsport06
11-11-2006, 10:08 PM
for all you who know no better bubba crosby is not on the 25 man roster he is on the 40 man roster which means he has to earn a spot like other players on the reds and could easily be cut before spring training. who knows he could turn out as another scott hatteberg typa guy. i may of complained if he had a higher contract or multiyear deal but 1 year 400,000 is nothing in terms of a player contract. face it in the long run it could only help us or be a waste of time just like cody ross

jimbo
11-11-2006, 10:50 PM
He's right about Juan Castro because Juan Castro's performance says so.


Again, that is just an opinion, not absolute. Someone could also make an argument that his performance warrants a certain role such as what TC and a few others have mentioned. It seems pretty arrogant to make such blanket statements as "Juan Castro is a waste of a roster spot" considering that there are a number of people in baseball who obviously believe otherwise.

SteelSD
11-12-2006, 12:13 AM
Again, that is just an opinion, not absolute.

Sorry, but I don't think you're understanding how this works.

If Juan Castro had 50 career AB and 50 Innings in the field, one might need to argue over an "opinion". But that's not the case. The reality is that Juan Castro has posted nearly 2300 Plate Appearances and nearly 900 defensive Innings. During that time, he's demonstrated that he's one of the worst hitters in the history of the game and that he's exceptionally overrated defensively. This is a guy who goes into nearly every season projecting fractional Wins versus replacement (i.e. the worst player in the game).

Now, don't get me wrong- someone is going to have to be the worst player on a team. But last season the Reds went around actually collecting them rather than relying on comparable (or better) internal options. And they're still doing so.


Someone could also make an argument that his performance warrants a certain role such as what TC and a few others have mentioned.

Juan Castro's performance warrants never walking to the plate and never taking the field.


It seems pretty arrogant to make such blanket statements as "Juan Castro is a waste of a roster spot" considering that there are a number of people in baseball who obviously believe otherwise.

Is Terry Ryan among the "number of people"? The interesting thing is that Ryan dumped Castro on his protege even though Ryan was handing the SS job to an unproven Jason Bartlett. No talk of keeping Castro around to fill a backup role and "mentor" Bartlett. He was just punted. Not surprisingly, the Twins got better offensively and defensively at SS after Castro was sent packing. Also not surprisingly, considering the poorly-conceived extension, Krivsky was also the guy who pushed for Minnesota to sign Castro before the 2005 season.

Seems that Terry Ryan figured out something that Krivsky has yet to grasp.

Spring~Fields
11-12-2006, 12:34 AM
But last season the Reds went around actually collecting them rather than relying on comparable (or better) internal options. And they're still doing so.



Yes, what Steel is saying.

I am probably overstating it, but it seems to me the Reds have been doing some version of that clear back to the Deion Sanders days.

Cyclone792
11-12-2006, 01:06 AM
My question would be this? Why are you comparing him to players who are mostly starters and he is known for his defense? We all know Castro is not a stellar hitter. Although he has won a few games with his bat. Castro is better defensively than a good number of Major Leaguers. You know that.

TC, I compared him to everyone in the last 100+ years that compares to him. Starters, bench players, everything. The only requirement in my search query was 2,000 career plate appearances, which Castro has eclipsed. If you want me to use other requirements, let me know. Over the past 100+ years, there's plenty of players to compare him to offensively.

Also, I'm not so sure that Castro is better defensively than a good number of major leaguers.

Per Chris Dial's defensive system (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_american_league/) during the middle of the season (he didn't list Castro in his end of season rankings due to limited innings, otherwise I'd list those instead):


Shortstop

Pos First Last Team GP GS INN RSpt RS/150
6 Juan Uribe CHW 75 70 632.0 10 21
6 Alex Gonzalez BOS 68 67 591.3 6 13
6 Bobby Crosby OAK 77 77 677.0 5 9
6 Carlos Guillen DET 79 78 680.0 4 7
6 Tomas Perez TBD 25 23 200.3 2 15
6 Orlando Cabrera LAA 84 84 724.7 2 4
6 Jason Bartlett MIN 23 23 203.0 2 11
6 Julio Lugo TBD 60 59 516.3 2 4
6 Michael Young TEX 87 87 761.0 1 2
6 Russ Adams TOR 36 31 271.0 0 2
6 Jhonny Peralta CLE 84 83 729.3 0 0
6 Yuni. Betancourt SEA 87 87 759.3 -1 -3
6 Aaron Hill TOR 34 31 281.7 -2 -11
6 Juan Castro MIN 50 48 408.0 -5 -15
6 Miguel Tejada BAL 83 83 719.7 -5 -10
6 Derek Jeter NYY 78 78 680.0 -6 -12
6 Angel Berroa KCR 80 79 687.7 -9 -18

Juan Castro's straight zone rating at shortstop this season was .795, and if he qualified that would have ranked fourth last ahead of only Angel Berroa, Felipe Lopez, and Hanley Ramirez with 21 qualifiers ranked ahead of him.

Castro is a fine defensive infielder and looks ridiculously smooth with the glove ... on balls he's able to reach. He may have some of the best fielding mechanics in the game right now and may be a valuable defensive teacher as far as mechanics goes; I won't argue that.

But what I will stop and take a look at are the actual results of his defense in game situations, and in actual games there are balls that many other infielders are reaching that he's unable to reach. That's the sticking point with him: balls he's able to reach. I just have a very difficult time labeling a player to be better defensively than most major leaguers when those other major leaguers are reaching balls in the infield that slip by Castro and skirt into the outfield. If Castro was actually reaching those balls, his zone ratings would be reflecting that ability. Unfortunately, due to Castro's age, his defense is also most likely declining rather than improving.

Cooper
11-12-2006, 01:13 AM
It takes up roster space and allows the team less space to make add something of value. Granted most thought it was no big deal at roster spot 40, or 39, 38, 37 ....but now we got a lot of stuff that is of little value and more importantly if something of value does come along our options become limited because of the onslaught of signing....players that are not any good.

Eventually these poor decisions start eating the organization up.

Being a good GM is a lot like being good at black jack. The little moves may only give you a 1 % advantage--but those are the kind advantages you're looking for --if you punt them away under the guise they ain't important -well, you better plan on being really lucky. And planning for luck ain't really planning at all.

Cyclone792
11-12-2006, 02:12 AM
A Million dollars in today's game is nothing.

I don't mean to split this out away from everything else, but this is actually the core of my disdain for a Juan Castro type of contract. On one hand a million dollars in today's game is nothing. However, on the other hand, that million dollars in today's game could very well be the microcosm of what separates successful major league franchises from pitiful major league franchises.

One of the most interesting aspects to me of the economics of baseball is what I'd term wasted resources, specifically wasted financial resources. Is one decision that costs the team a half million or a million dollars entirely devastating to an organization? Of course not. But multiply those bad decisions. Waste a million here. Waste a half million there. Waste another million here, then another half million there. Tally up the wasted financial resources, and suddenly you're looking at several million dollars. Tally up those mistakes over a span of two seasons, three seasons, five seasons, etc., and suddenly you're looking at a very large chunk of financial resources lost to just simple waste and bad decision-making.

Every single June in the amateur draft we see just about every major league team quibbling with agents of their just drafted prospects over paltry amounts of money in signing bonuses. Sometimes the money isn't so paltry, but that may depend on one's definition.

In 2001, the Reds drafted Jeremy Sowers and offered him a $1.5 million signing bonus. One can debate all day if the Sowers pick was a deliberately wasted pick where the Reds had absolutely no intentions of signing him. But what would happen if the Reds offered a $2.5 million signing bonus? That's a million bucks differential in what the Reds offered and what he signed for when he was drafted again in 2004. Just a simple million bucks that could have been the difference between right now having Jeremy Sowers and not at all having Jeremy Sowers. Maybe so, maybe not, but it sure would have been nice if we had the option of finding out.

I use the Sowers example because it's painfully easy to pick out, but it's one of hundreds in just the past decade. Tally up all financial resources wasted by the Reds over the past few seasons, and it sure would be nice to have a large chunk of those financial resources saved up for better use now and in the future. People may look at the small signings now and say "hey, no big deal" because of the small amount of money, but it's those types of signings and that type of money I look back to when the next draft rolls around and there's uncertainty about signing prospect Joe Blow because of a signing bonus quibble.

If the Reds saved a few million each season by cutting off their waste, they'd have plenty of areas to better spread it around. Better statistical evaluations in the front office. Better scouting evaluations. More scouting evaluations. More resources available to ensure draft pick signings. As an organization, the Reds have made it patently clear that a great deal of the franchise's success each season will depend on its ability to produce and develop talent up through its farm system. If the team wastes x amount of dollars on major league players that do not deserve what they're being paid, but then follows that up by balking at signing a draftee over a similar amount of money, I'm not too thrilled about that. It harms the organization altogether.

For the Reds to succeed as a franchise, the farm system must succeed, the statistical and scouting evaluations must be accurate, and the decisions must be sound. Good decisions and avoiding wasted money helps achieve those goals. Bad decisions and wasted money within the organization then becomes a detriment to the organization.

jimbo
11-12-2006, 03:16 AM
Sorry, but I don't think you're understanding how this works.


Thanks for enlightening me. I'm not sure why it took me so long to understand that your word is the gospel when it comes to the Reds. :confused:

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 03:25 AM
TC, I compared him to everyone in the last 100+ years that compares to him. Starters, bench players, everything. The only requirement in my search query was 2,000 career plate appearances, which Castro has eclipsed. If you want me to use other requirements, let me know. Over the past 100+ years, there's plenty of players to compare him to offensively.

Also, I'm not so sure that Castro is better defensively than a good number of major leaguers.

Per Chris Dial's defensive system (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_american_league/) during the middle of the season (he didn't list Castro in his end of season rankings due to limited innings, otherwise I'd list those instead):


Shortstop

Pos First Last Team GP GS INN RSpt RS/150
6 Juan Uribe CHW 75 70 632.0 10 21
6 Alex Gonzalez BOS 68 67 591.3 6 13
6 Bobby Crosby OAK 77 77 677.0 5 9
6 Carlos Guillen DET 79 78 680.0 4 7
6 Tomas Perez TBD 25 23 200.3 2 15
6 Orlando Cabrera LAA 84 84 724.7 2 4
6 Jason Bartlett MIN 23 23 203.0 2 11
6 Julio Lugo TBD 60 59 516.3 2 4
6 Michael Young TEX 87 87 761.0 1 2
6 Russ Adams TOR 36 31 271.0 0 2
6 Jhonny Peralta CLE 84 83 729.3 0 0
6 Yuni. Betancourt SEA 87 87 759.3 -1 -3
6 Aaron Hill TOR 34 31 281.7 -2 -11
6 Juan Castro MIN 50 48 408.0 -5 -15
6 Miguel Tejada BAL 83 83 719.7 -5 -10
6 Derek Jeter NYY 78 78 680.0 -6 -12
6 Angel Berroa KCR 80 79 687.7 -9 -18

Juan Castro's straight zone rating at shortstop this season was .795, and if he qualified that would have ranked fourth last ahead of only Angel Berroa, Felipe Lopez, and Hanley Ramirez with 21 qualifiers ranked ahead of him.

Castro is a fine defensive infielder and looks ridiculously smooth with the glove ... on balls he's able to reach. He may have some of the best fielding mechanics in the game right now and may be a valuable defensive teacher as far as mechanics goes; I won't argue that.

But what I will stop and take a look at are the actual results of his defense in game situations, and in actual games there are balls that many other infielders are reaching that he's unable to reach. That's the sticking point with him: balls he's able to reach. I just have a very difficult time labeling a player to be better defensively than most major leaguers when those other major leaguers are reaching balls in the infield that slip by Castro and skirt into the outfield. If Castro was actually reaching those balls, his zone ratings would be reflecting that ability. Unfortunately, due to Castro's age, his defense is also most likely declining rather than improving.

You bring up some really solid points. I have to go by what I see. Your data mixed in with my evaluations gives me a different perspective. I do agree that with age his range and overall defensive skills will deteriorate. That is life.

I differ in opinion on the amount of range that he has due simply to the fact that I have physically seen him make the plays that a majority of Major League SS's do not make. Those plays were on spots of the field not many SS's get to. I have also witnessed plays at other positions that show he is simply stellar with the glove. I can not, have not and will not argue his abilities with the bat. You and I already know he is lackluster in that department. Granted he hit .284 last season as a Red but his lifetime .233 avg is tell tale. I just can not go along with any statement that says he is not a worthy MLB player. Especially considering he is a role player. I really liked the Defensive chart. I am going to bookmark that. Really good stuff. Great argument and thank you for keeping it civil.

redsmetz
11-12-2006, 06:57 AM
I differ in opinion on the amount of range that he has due simply to the fact that I have physically seen him make the plays that a majority of Major League SS's do not make. Those plays were on spots of the field not many SS's get to. I have also witnessed plays at other positions that show he is simply stellar with the glove. I can not, have not and will not argue his abilities with the bat. You and I already know he is lackluster in that department. Granted he hit .284 last season as a Red but his lifetime .233 avg is tell tale. I just can not go along with any statement that says he is not a worthy MLB player. Especially considering he is a role player. I really liked the Defensive chart. I am going to bookmark that. Really good stuff. Great argument and thank you for keeping it civil.

I'm not sure if anyone brought this up, but are there not times that the stats miss a slight bit of reality. We used to say this about Larkin, IIRC. A player with better range some times is charged with an error because he's getting to balls that the average infielder doesn't even touch. There a base hit by him and that's the end of it. Now maybe there's something in these statistics that indicates how much better a fielder is in getting to balls - I'll be the first to admit that I'm an "eyes glazing over" guy when it comes to the statistical Alphabet Soup and maybe I'm missing the obvious.

I also think there is an intangible in having a role player such as Juan Castro who can be teaching younger players the ropes. That's not a wasted or undeserving roster spot. I think that leads to a better team.

RANDY IN INDY
11-12-2006, 08:06 AM
You bring up some really solid points. I have to go by what I see. Your data mixed in with my evaluations gives me a different perspective. I do agree that with age his range and overall defensive skills will deteriorate. That is life.

I differ in opinion on the amount of range that he has due simply to the fact that I have physically seen him make the plays that a majority of Major League SS's do not make. Those plays were on spots of the field not many SS's get to. I have also witnessed plays at other positions that show he is simply stellar with the glove. I can not, have not and will not argue his abilities with the bat. You and I already know he is lackluster in that department. Granted he hit .284 last season as a Red but his lifetime .233 avg is tell tale. I just can not go along with any statement that says he is not a worthy MLB player. Especially considering he is a role player. I really liked the Defensive chart. I am going to bookmark that. Really good stuff. Great argument and thank you for keeping it civil.

:beerme:

camisadelgolf
11-12-2006, 09:46 AM
Sorry, but I don't think you're understanding how this works.

If Juan Castro had 50 career AB and 50 Innings in the field, one might need to argue over an "opinion". But that's not the case. The reality is that Juan Castro has posted nearly 2300 Plate Appearances and nearly 900 defensive Innings. During that time, he's demonstrated that he's one of the worst hitters in the history of the game and that he's exceptionally overrated defensively. This is a guy who goes into nearly every season projecting fractional Wins versus replacement (i.e. the worst player in the game).

Juan Castro has posted nearly 2300 plate appearances near the bottom of the order, without protection from other players. Albert Pujols will inflate the stats of the players in front of him, unlike Aaron Harang. On top of that, the majority of the time, he doesn't know that he's going to be in a starting lineup until the day of the game, and unless you're Ryan Freel, being mentally prepared days in advanced will help you when it comes to game-time. My point is this: he is one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball in one category, and it's a category that doesn't treat all players equally. I believe it doesn't incorporate defense either, but I could be wrong about that. Speaking of which, 900 innings? Maybe I don't understand, but I believe he's played defense in 4,891 innings.


Now, don't get me wrong- someone is going to have to be the worst player on a team. But last season the Reds went around actually collecting them rather than relying on comparable (or better) internal options. And they're still doing so.

Please list for us some of the comparable/better, internal options. And if you think it's wise to start the timetable on younger players' option years, maybe you don't even know what a GM does.


Juan Castro's performance warrants never walking to the plate and never taking the field.

. . . and never taking you seriously. Did the guy punch your wife or something? What's your problem with Castro? Have you ever seen him play defense, or have you only read a website that says he can't play?


Is Terry Ryan among the "number of people"? The interesting thing is that Ryan dumped Castro on his protege even though Ryan was handing the SS job to an unproven Jason Bartlett. No talk of keeping Castro around to fill a backup role and "mentor" Bartlett. He was just punted. Not surprisingly, the Twins got better offensively and defensively at SS after Castro was sent packing. Also not surprisingly, considering the poorly-conceived extension, Krivsky was also the guy who pushed for Minnesota to sign Castro before the 2005 season.

Seems that Terry Ryan figured out something that Krivsky has yet to grasp.

Actually, Castro wanted to come to the Reds. It's not like Ryan realized Castro had no value and kicked him off the team. And fluke or not, Juan Castro hit .284 with only two errors over 211 innings. Maybe one thing you should consider is that the key to winning in baseball doesn't rely on having the guys with the best statistics. A three-run homerun doesn't do you a lot of good in a blowout. It's being able to rely on the guys who are going to do the best at a given time, and Juan Castro pulled through when they needed him to, and his "lack" of offense or defense (and I completely disagree if you think there's a lack of defense) didn't cost the Reds anything. If it ever did, Narron was probably mis-using him.

Juan Castro was a big (granted, not huge--but I'm not trying to say he's Albert Pujols) reason the Reds were competing until the end of the year, and although he's been unimpressive in the past, he more-than-earned his paycheck last year while with the Reds. Let me know when you find a stat that sums up intangibles like veteran leadership, playoff experience, versatility, health, etc. When you find that, maybe you'll have a valid point.

Cooper
11-12-2006, 12:03 PM
One of the problems with Juan's defense is he has rated very poorly in the range area for years. It's not like there's an aberration iin the fielding stats...it's been every year. If anything the fluke would lie on the side that errors to his favor.

Most folks that support his overall defensive abilities have locked on to observational bias...something good happened when you were watching and you gave it special signifigance (i liken it to narcisistic scouting). If good things happen when you watch then by all means keep watching.

He has good hands--something that is easy to observe. He has slow legs and reaction time --something that is hard to observe.

Puffy
11-12-2006, 12:16 PM
Let me know when you find a stat that sums up intangibles like veteran leadership, playoff experience, versatility, health, etc. When you find that, maybe you'll have a valid point.

Not trying to be a jerk here - but let me know when you find a stat that any of these things mean anything.

I've played sports all my life. You name the sport and I've played it. Played on some teams that had great groups of guys who really liked each other, hustled, played as hard as can be. And sucked.

Also played on some teams that didn't hang out together, didn't hate one another, but just got together on the field and on the field only, were kind of nonchalent. And were awesome.

This vet leadership, et al is one of the most overrated invisible things people can bring up.

And oh yeah, having Juan Castro on your team only ensures one thing. Losing. He has played on a losing team in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 (OK, not a losing record 83-79 - however Minnesota won 94, 90, 92 - then they sign Castro and go down to 83 and this year before they let him go were hovering around .500 until they dropped him) and 2006. So mabye Castro doesn't add vet leadership, health, playoff experience, versatility, etc.

The funny thing is if Juan Castro never wore a Reds uniform almost all the people who defend him now would be saying how useless he was. If he played on the pirates all the years everyone would see what Castro really is. But since he plays on the Reds......

Cyclone792
11-12-2006, 12:31 PM
You bring up some really solid points. I have to go by what I see. Your data mixed in with my evaluations gives me a different perspective. I do agree that with age his range and overall defensive skills will deteriorate. That is life.

I differ in opinion on the amount of range that he has due simply to the fact that I have physically seen him make the plays that a majority of Major League SS's do not make. Those plays were on spots of the field not many SS's get to. I have also witnessed plays at other positions that show he is simply stellar with the glove. I can not, have not and will not argue his abilities with the bat. You and I already know he is lackluster in that department. Granted he hit .284 last season as a Red but his lifetime .233 avg is tell tale. I just can not go along with any statement that says he is not a worthy MLB player. Especially considering he is a role player. I really liked the Defensive chart. I am going to bookmark that. Really good stuff. Great argument and thank you for keeping it civil.

While ranging to his left toward the second base bag, I'll agree with you that Castro makes more plays than most other shortstops. However, on balls hit to the hole toward third base, he slides downhill quickly. Here's Pinto's PMR charts (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/ChooseChartPlayer.py#CA) from the 2004 season based on Castro's ability to field batted balls hit into his zones:
http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/9568/castrodhf3.jpg

MWM
11-12-2006, 12:33 PM
If Castro's vet leadership was so important, why did the Twins get better once he left?

SteelSD
11-12-2006, 12:34 PM
Juan Castro has posted nearly 2300 plate appearances near the bottom of the order, without protection from other players. Albert Pujols will inflate the stats of the players in front of him, unlike Aaron Harang. On top of that, the majority of the time, he doesn't know that he's going to be in a starting lineup until the day of the game, and unless you're Ryan Freel, being mentally prepared days in advanced will help you when it comes to game-time.

You've got it backwards. Juan Castro's offensive game isn't suppressed because he's hitting at the bottom of a lineup. Juan Castro hits at the bottom of a lineup because he's awful offensively.

But over the last three years, Castro has posted 197 AB in the 2 slot and has put up a line of .213 OBP/.239 SLG. 61 AB in 2003- .277 OBP/.299 SLG.

Seems that your theory pretty much dies there. Juan Castro stinks at the plate because Juan Castro is a bad hitter.


My point is this: he is one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball in one category, and it's a category that doesn't treat all players equally.

Runs Created treats all players equally and it incorporates every offensive event. If you understood the metric, you'd know that.


I believe it doesn't incorporate defense either, but I could be wrong about that. Speaking of which, 900 innings? Maybe I don't understand, but I believe he's played defense in 4,891 innings.

Typo. I typed Innings when I should have typed Games.


Please list for us some of the comparable/better, internal options. And if you think it's wise to start the timetable on younger players' option years, maybe you don't even know what a GM does.

So it would have been a bad idea to wind the arbitration clock on a 25/26 year-old Chris Denorfia rather than waste resources on a Quinton McCracken or DeWayne Wise? Or paying the minimum for a Ray Olmedo versus actually trading something of value and then paying real money to Juan Castro? Please.


. . . and never taking you seriously. Did the guy punch your wife or something? What's your problem with Castro? Have you ever seen him play defense, or have you only read a website that says he can't play?

My problem with Castro is that he doensn't hit and doesn't field. It also bugs me that he's so smooth picking baseballs his limited range allows him to field that it tricks the untrained eye into thinking he's got something resembling real range.


Actually, Castro wanted to come to the Reds. It's not like Ryan realized Castro had no value and kicked him off the team.

Actually, that's exactly what Ryan did. You've got a team (Minnesota) that's, allegedly, a "defense and pitching" squad. They handed their Shortstop job to an unproven Jason Bartlett on June 14th, 2006. No "easing" Bartlett in. The job was handed to him because of Juan Castro's negative impact.

On June 15th, 2006, without even waiting to see if Bartlett would produce, Juan Castro is sent packing in a trade that didn't impact the Twins' MLB product. No waiting around to have Castro "mentor" his replacement. No keeping him around as a late-Inning defensive replacement. "You can't help, now go away." was the message. Oh, and here's how much Castro was pining to join the Reds:

"It's sad what's going on right now," said Castro, who spent
five years with the Reds before signing with the Twins before the
2005 season. "I understand the situation. They explained
everything, but I was in love with Minnesota. ... It's hard to
leave when you have a lot of good people around you."

Yeah, he hated Minnesota. Really wanted to get back to the Reds.


And fluke or not, Juan Castro hit .284 with only two errors over 211 innings. Maybe one thing you should consider is that the key to winning in baseball doesn't rely on having the guys with the best statistics. A three-run homerun doesn't do you a lot of good in a blowout. It's being able to rely on the guys who are going to do the best at a given time, and Juan Castro pulled through when they needed him to, and his "lack" of offense or defense (and I completely disagree if you think there's a lack of defense) didn't cost the Reds anything. If it ever did, Narron was probably mis-using him.

Ah, the myth of situational performance. And here's Castro's Zone Rating from 2006. Good stuff, because we've got two teams to look at (MIN, CIN):

2006 Minnesota: .799 ZR
2006 Cincinnati: .784 ZR

That's basically replacing Felipe Lopez' defense with Felipe Lopez' defense.

Castro's 2005 ZR (.813) would have also put him near the bottom of the list of MLB Shortstops. The data isn't at all surprising because Castro (who's long been overrated defensively) is getting older and losing steps. As noted earlier, he catches most everything he can get to, but he can't get to much anymore.

Argue all you like, but the game itself is arguing against you. In fact, baseball accepts weak-hitting Shortstops as starters if they can actually field the position (Alex Gonzalez, Adam Everett). Yet, Juan Castro was punted from a "defense/pitching" organization because Terry Ryan realized that the Twins were better off without Castro at the plate or in the field.


Juan Castro was a big (granted, not huge--but I'm not trying to say he's Albert Pujols) reason the Reds were competing until the end of the year, and although he's been unimpressive in the past, he more-than-earned his paycheck last year while with the Reds. Let me know when you find a stat that sums up intangibles like veteran leadership, playoff experience, versatility, health, etc. When you find that, maybe you'll have a valid point.

Unimpressive? The guy has been putrid. As to your other rhetoric, do tell us how Juan Castro's "veteran leadership" has helped any team actually win anything. He's been on exactly one playoff team ever (1996 LA Dodgers) and has acquired exactly five postseason AB. He is, however, versatile- which means he can be worth pretty much nothing at a few positions. Yay?

Seriously, if you're going to go all aggro and demand that a player's "intangibles" add significant value then you'd better be able to point to specific instances where that player actually made his team better than they should have been. To do so will take evidence. And let's be clear- evidence is more than just your say-so.

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 12:42 PM
While ranging to his left toward the second base bag, I'll agree with you that Castro makes more plays than most other shortstops. However, on balls hit to the hole toward third base, he slides downhill quickly. Here's Pinto's PMR charts (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/ChooseChartPlayer.py#CA) from the 2004 season based on Castro's ability to field batted balls hit into his zones:
http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/9568/castrodhf3.jpg

That's really sharp. I want to do some digging and compare him and several others to our Inside Edge databse to see if they are comparable. Great Stuff, Great Post! :thumbup:

westofyou
11-12-2006, 01:07 PM
If Castro's vet leadership was so important, why did the Twins get better once he left?

Return to the mean?

They weren't that bad and they started to picth Lirano?

Justin actually hit this season and Cuddyer too?

Probably lots of things, and probably a tad to do with dumping Castro and Fernandez.

Castro is a pension monkey, he's a coaches dream and a display to the young guys of where hard work gets you in this game, he's a sandlot and clubhouse rat and will take the time to talk to younger players and give them a hand. He's an egoless player with questionable skills in a sea of inflated egois and single skillset dominance. Simply put he's a ballplayer, the type that every fan can either loath or love. And his type isn't exiting the building anytime soon, they are littered throughout the league... Nefi Perez, Lenny Harris, woof, woof.

Castro got 1.7 of all the Reds at bats last season and churned in a line that Hal Lanier would envy. I hope as long as he's a Red he can reproduce that, or maybe somebody with more talent will push him off the team and the argument will be moot.

It's how Pete Rose got his 1st job.

gonelong
11-12-2006, 03:44 PM
I differ in opinion on the amount of range that he has due simply to the fact that I have physically seen him make the plays that a majority of Major League SS's do not make. Those plays were on spots of the field not many SS's get to. I have also witnessed plays at other positions that show he is simply stellar with the glove.

I think you'll get no argument that once he gets to the ball he absolutely knows what to do with it.

I know what you do for a living, but I absolutely have to disagree with your observation. Castro positions himself well enough, gets a decent jump on the ball most of the time (experience & preparation), and has the footwork to get himself in a very nice fielding position ... but he lacks the quickness and foot-speed neccessary to range very far in either direction.

I'll agree with Cyclone that he makes his share of plays to the 2nd base side of the bag (and I'd wager starts more than his share of double plays on that side), but he has a big old black hole on his right.

All told, not something I pay $1M for if I am the Reds. More than likely you'll see Castro as an instructor for the Reds at some point, and thats fine. Maybe the love they are showing now sets the ground-work for that, and maybe it could be justified by mentoring a guy like EE, but its seems a darn high price to pay IMO.

GL

Cyclone792
11-12-2006, 05:10 PM
That's really sharp. I want to do some digging and compare him and several others to our Inside Edge databse to see if they are comparable. Great Stuff, Great Post! :thumbup:

If you're able to provide some info from Inside Edge, I'd be very interested in seeing it as they may have some info I've not yet heard about. Typically, the more data and information available, the better the conclusion that can be drawn from that available data. They may or may not have similar data to what's readily available online, but either way, I'm very interested in what Inside Edge states.

Thanks for the discussion, TC. :)

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 05:13 PM
If you're able to provide some info from Inside Edge, I'd be very interested in seeing it. Typically, the more data and information available, the better the conclusion that can be drawn from that available data. They may or may not have similar data to what's readily available online, but either way, I'm very interested in what Inside Edge states.

Thanks for the discussion, TC. :)

No problem. I'm having a difficult time getting my arms around the data that is in the program. It is more Tendency related than result driven as far as what I am looking for. I'll keep doing my homework. Great stuff.

Mario-Rijo
11-12-2006, 05:32 PM
That's really sharp. I want to do some digging and compare him and several others to our Inside Edge databse to see if they are comparable. Great Stuff, Great Post!

Exactly nice post Cyclone! But I have a couple of questions for ya!

1st off where have you been with this type of breakdown before, I could have used that. And 2nd would you do the same thing with a guy like Phillips and try to relate his 2nd base ability to what he might look like @ SS? And would you do it for some of the FA guys? Alex Gonzalez, Lugo, Cora and anyone else you think could be a solid fit for this team.

Always Red
11-12-2006, 06:01 PM
I have learned so much about the statistical side of the game since I have been here at RedsZone, mainly due to posters like Steel and Cyclone (thank you, both!). And I have learned a lot about the actual doing, working, and playing of the game from TC.

What I do not understand is why I watch Juan Castro play SS or 3B, albeit as a back-up, and watch him make one good fielding play after another (late in a game), and then look at the stats that you guys show us (and I do believe you) and they show he is a below average fielder. To me, there are light years between watching Felipe Lopez play (at) SS, and watching Castro play SS. Yet the numbers show us that they are the same??

Now, I'm no neophyte baseball watcher. No, I never played the game above the high school level, but it's readily apparent to me that I know more about the game than the average fan (which does make me an average Redszone poster, I understand that!).

It's not even close, when you watch what Lopez and Castro are actually doing. I don't care (for now, but I'll get to that later) what the stats show us. Castro is not a below average fielder. Of course his range is decreasing by year, given his age. And I am not defending his salary at all; I am simply responding to those who say he does not even belong in the game at all.

And I am not talking about his bat at all. He certainly has the bat of a utility infielder.

If that's the case, then the Reds defense is truly abysmal; perhaps the worst in the history of the game, because Castro (and I do not know him, root for him even, or even like him in any way, shape or form) is the best defender the Reds have at 2B, SS and 3B.

I've never seen him miss a play, range wise, that I thought someone else on this team, or even an average defender, could get to. Not one single time that I can recall!

Maybe, just maybe, the statistical side of this game is not yet perfected all the way. The stats certainly have told us a lot, that's for sure. And as we go on in time, we realize that stats from back in the day such as BA and K's are not what we thought they were. Maybe someday the "batting crown" will be for OPS, and not for BA.

Defensive stats are widely considered to be the weak link of the sabermetric art, according to the reading and research I have done, at least as compared to the pitching and hitting stats.

I'm just surprised that Castro is considered by observers of the game to be an above average fielder, and by numbers guys to be a below average fielder.

There is a disconnect here, somewhere.:confused:

MWM
11-12-2006, 06:15 PM
Always Red, it's the classic example of our eyes not always seeing things as they really are. We tend to weight certain plays much greater than they probably should be based on when they happened and the impact of the game or on degree of difficulty. I used to be the same way. I'd think a player really produced, only to look at the record of their performance (stats) and see they weren't that good at all.

It's similar to the notion that the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter being about one hit a week. If you sit and do nothing but watch, it's darn near impossible to tell the difference.

I know one thing, there's been plenty of times when Castro's been at SS where I'll watch a ball off the bat and thinking it's going to be a routine ground ball only to see it go by the left or right of Castro. It's natural in those instances to think a SS just couldn't have gotten to it. But I've seen it happen enough, based on observation of my own, to trust the Zone Rating on Castro a little more. The worst for this was the beginning of 2005 when Aurilia was playing there. It seemed to happen a couple of times a game. And when a guy like Castro or Aurilia make a nice looking play to either side, it can give the appearance of range, when a rangier fielder might have bee sitting there waiting on it rather having to make a nice play on it. The eyes are limited, even to the most trained eye. It's a classic case of the need for both statistical evidence along with multiple scouting opinions to help make decisions.

Cyclone792
11-12-2006, 06:26 PM
Exactly nice post Cyclone! But I have a couple of questions for ya!

1st off where have you been with this type of breakdown before, I could have used that. And 2nd would you do the same thing with a guy like Phillips and try to relate his 2nd base ability to what he might look like @ SS? And would you do it for some of the FA guys? Alex Gonzalez, Lugo, Cora and anyone else you think could be a solid fit for this team.

Pinto's PMR has been available for a couple of years now and is easily found on his Baseball Musings web site (http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/cat_probabilistic_model_of_range.php). He hasn't updated the 2006 data yet, and I'm only assuming that he's going to, but I wouldn't expect it until January at the earliest. He made his 2004 PMR data available in chart format (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/ChooseChartPlayer.py), which is where I collected the Castro chart from.

I've referenced his PMR data here a few times in the past, but that's mostly been from a standard actual outs vs. predicted outs format. Just a couple days ago, RedsManRick posted an excellent topic (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=52453) over in the ORG about Pinto's PMR charts.

Since PMR is based off actual field events, we won't find anything worthwhile related to Brandon Phillips' ability to play shortstop until he actually goes over there and logs a nice chunk of innings at the position. Minor league defensive statistics of this nature would be highly valuable, but to the best of my knowledge they just don't exist.

Slightly off topic here, but this is possibly my favorite chart:

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/9231/griffeydpx5.jpg

If I could slide into GABP unnoticed this winter, I'd hang a massive projection screen on the outfield batter's eye and then load this chart up on that screen. What makes that chart even worse is it's based off 2004 data. It's highly likely that same chart would look even worse based off 2005 and 2006 data.

Always Red
11-12-2006, 06:27 PM
Always Red, it's the classic example of our eyes not always seeing things as they really are. We tend to weight certain plays much greater than they probably should be based on when they happened and the impact of the game or on degree of difficulty.

I do understand that, MWM, I'm not a neophyte baseball fan, and I have no vested interest in wanting Castro to be a good player; he's not a favorite player of mine.


It's similar to the notion that the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter being about one hit a week. If you sit and do nothing but watch, it's darn near impossible to tell the difference.


I also understand this; I am not an anti-stats watcher of the game! Learning what I have about sabermetrics has only increased my enjoyment of the game. (In other words, I don't think it's crap :thumbup: )


The worst for this was the beginning of 2005 when Aurilia was playing there. It seemed to happen a couple of times a game. And when a guy like Castro or Aurilia make a nice looking play to either side, it can give the appearance of range, when a rangier fielder might have bee sitting there waiting on it rather having to make a nice play on it. The eyes are limited, even to the most trained eye. It's a classic case of the need for both statistical evidence along with multiple scouting opinions to help make decisions.

I was able to clearly see, before many others (even here, even still!) did, that Aurilia could not play SS at a major league level anymore; earl;y in 2005. The man has no range anymore, but he does field what he can get to.

My hunch is simply that there is something here that statistics cannot adequately describe, as of yet. I might be wrong, I certainly have been before. Once or twice.

But Juan Castro is a better SS than Felipe Lopez. Every day, and twice on Sundays.

jimbo
11-12-2006, 06:30 PM
Always Red, it's the classic example of our eyes not always seeing things as they really are.

Yet that is exactly how defensive ratings are measured by........the eye.

redsfanfalcon
11-12-2006, 07:31 PM
I remember going to a Reds/Padres game at Cinergy Field and someone yelling at Bubba Crosby...the fan said, "Hey Bubba there are all kinds of things you can do in San Diego...you can go to the beach, you can go to the zoo, you can hit .220..." I about fell over.

MWM
11-12-2006, 07:45 PM
Bubba Crosby never played for the Padres.

flyer85
11-12-2006, 07:51 PM
The umpire Ron Luciano was once asked who was the best pitcher he ever saw, his answer was "Dick Tidrow". Luciano stated that whenever he was behind the plate Tidrow was unhittable, it got to the point of being a running joke between them.

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 08:28 PM
I did some digging. I pulled up all of the defensive data on the Reds and Juan Castro that our scouting system holds. All of this data is input by scouts who have been in attendance at a particular game. So, no one is watching and evaluating the Reds on Fox from their home in CA for example. All of this data is put in throughout a season. We saw the Reds play either directly (for purposes of evaluating Reds' talent for a trade) or indirectly (evaluating who the Reds were playing) on 68 occasions. 40 of those games occured AFTER Juan Castro was acquired. Juan played in 22 of those games and started 9. Juan played SS in 14 of those games and 3B in 8. Playing both positions in the same game twice. We saw Juan play as a Twin 16 times each game played at SS. So, I have 38 games to work with. 30 Games at SS and 8 at 3B. I just want everyone to have an idea of what I am looking at as far as the initial breakdown of data.

I called Former Big League Manager and Atlanta Braves Super Scout Jim Fregosi, who was a big league SS, for an opinion. I also called Bobby Wine as he is Atlanta's Advance Scout and a top advisor to Mr. Schuerholz. I called both of them because they are probably the two smartest and well respected evaluators in the business. I completely respect Cyclone and Steel's data and find it revealing and invigorating. Calling Jim and Bobby gives me an equal opinion from across the table.

First the Data:

What I have here is pretty good stuff. I pulled our reports on the two Gold Glovers up the Middle. Orlando Hudson and Omar Vizquel. As well as 3B Scott Rolen. I wanted to see what was written and input about those very good defensive players and how it compared, if at all, to Juan. Of the observations made on Castro and compared to O & O I thought it was funny that in one observation Castro's name was mentioned. "Still makes the backhand as smooth as a Juan Castro". :laugh:

I'll start with 3B. Now, Juan is an above average 3B in my opinion because of three things. 1) Positioning 2) Fielding ability 3) Game intelligence Obviously Rolen is rated way over the top of Castro. Every fielding category has Rolen rated at the top. Backhand, Forehand, going back on a ball, coming in, cutting across, feed to 2B, playing in front of the bag, behind the bag and an overall "range" ratingas well as an "arm rating. The only 3B that are at that level or "HAVE BEEN CLOSE" in the last 4-5 years are Eric Chavez, Alex Rodriguez (whose ratings have obviously fallen), and David Bell. So, how does Juan Rate? On a grading scale of 1-8 Juan is a 6 in almost every category. He's a 7 on the feed to 2B and backhand. I can attest to that. For further comaprison EE is a 4 in most areas 5 in a few and a 7 in ARM. David Wright is a consistent 6/7. Aramis Ramirez is 4/5. Chipper Jones is a consistent 5. Ryan Zimmerman is a consistent 6 with a few 7's and will probably one day end up like Rolen. Juan "Rates" pretty well as a 3B. The trouble is that his fielding sample is so small as a 3B that it is tough for me to Gauge him long term or properly against everyday 3B. I was just curious to see how he did in other people's eyes. I did notice reading these game notes, albeit a small sample, that Juan was involved in a lot of plays at 3B. He managed them flawlessly. A number of times he was playing 3B coming off the bench and made plays that were not considered routine. You can not practice those in the tunnel. On at least 5 occasions he replaced EE after EE had commited at least 1 error. Could this skew the evaluation? I'm not sure. Certainly Juan is not one of the Boyer brothers at 3B but he is at least "rated" above average based on what others saw in his performance. I tend to agree based upon what I have seen over the years. IMO it again comes down to Positioning, Fielding ability and Game Intelligence. He's pretty darn good at those 3 things.

SS: Cyclone and Gonelong brought up a GREAT point about positioning. As I cycled through the SS's and their evaluations I noticed the common theme. Almost every SS camps out 1-3 steps closer to the hole depending on of course the hitter and or type of pitcher. They all do it. A ball that just gets by them that maybe they looked like they should have had, may have been a ball they were not expecting in that spot based on a tendency. So, does that affect his range? If everyone is doing the same thing then what is the benchmark? Do you need to be quicker to your right if you are already standing there? Or is that why you have more "range" to your left because an off-hit ball requires you to hustle up the middle for it. Every big league infielder I have ever met or coached is quicker/"rangier", if you will, to their glove side. Remember I had Ordonez in AAA. I've seen no one since him with his type of range. He'd be an 11. :laugh: Vizquel actually rates pretty well with his glove. 6/7's mostly. That is JUST based on how he fields the ball. His range is decidedly average. To his left is where he really slows down. He's a 4. We observed 31 "moderate" ground balls over the bag and he did not touch ONE. To his right he rated in the 7's but he typically plays in the hole and really camps out there most of the game. In the advance reports we talk about the ability to "hard Bunt" to Durham because he cheats up the middle. Niekro is pretty slow and Right Handed. With a Lefty on the mound and a good bunter you could pull that off two or three times. Vizquel's arm is a 5 out of 8. Eckstein's arm is a 5. Just enough. Vizquel is the epitome of playing smart. Juan is on that Cerebral level with more ability. For the record I think using Vizquel is not that great of an example because honestly I do not think he is a gold glover. Yeah I know he only had a few errors, etc... but he doesn't GET TO anything. Durham covers more SS AS A 2B than he does and he's old too!!

I could not do a 2B comparison. No data. I did notice that Orlando Hudson has some of the best comments, along with Rolen, attached to his info. "TREMENDOUS" hands, long reaching range and ability to snap a ball back to 1B instantly. Complete awareness of the field, superior anticipation skills, the best footwork at 2B in the Big Leagues. His cuts and angles are practiced and flawless. Here's a good one "His hands are so soft I'm not sure why he bothers with a glove at all". We have him charted on 12 occasions making plays on the SS side of the bag 8-10 feet behind 2B. That is outstanding. I really do not think Juan can do that. Then again I'm not sure even Brandon Phillips can either.


Jim and Bobby:

Well they both like him. Neither thinks he is the greatest thing since sliced bread but they both feel he is an "exceptional" glove man. They both made mention that his bat is what surprised some people while he was a Red. Jim liked him because he is always confident in the field and knows exactly what to do with the baseball. He pointed out some of the Tigers deficiencies and said "I bet they wish Inge had Castro's brains" LOL! I would agree. I told them both about the discussion. I put out my theories, they listened. I talked about the charts and the expected vs. actual, etc... Bobby said this "Is the guy Ozzie Smith"? I said "No". "Does he make all of the plays anyone would expect him to make"? IMO, "Yes". "Is he BETTER than the players he replaces"? IMO "Yes". As Bobby says "There ya have it". Certainly there is more debate but I still believe Juan is an above average fielder and a "worthy" Major League Baseball Player.


I wanted to use the Inside Edge Data but there really isn't any. The system is not designed for this type of use. It can tell you where to position a guy in a certain situation but it can not tell you if the fielder did his job. I was a little dissapointed after I dug into the Defensive chart that none of it is based on actual, visual observation. Just one mathematic equation after another. Although I found them to be pretty darn good I can say that I would never solely base any decision on this info.

Gallen5862
11-12-2006, 09:25 PM
Thanks for that inside info Teamclark.

SteelSD
11-12-2006, 09:34 PM
Bobby said this "Is the guy Ozzie Smith"? I said "No". "Does he make all of the plays anyone would expect him to make"? IMO, "Yes". "Is he BETTER than the players he replaces"? IMO "Yes". As Bobby says "There ya have it".

Ok. Wait. So part of your attempt at "objective" study was having a guy ask you what you already thought about a player? That's deep.

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 09:34 PM
Thanks for that inside info Teamclark.

There's a lot more info. A little tough trying to get all of it into a format that makes sense to everyone.

Mario-Rijo
11-12-2006, 09:36 PM
Very interesting breakdown there TC! My question would be, how do people feel about BP? My guess would be that he lacks the experience to position himself correctly at all times (That happens to be my stance on alot of the Reds fielders BTW) which if true is a result of coaching. IMO he has above avg. range, arm strength, instincts and agility. His hands are solid but not necc. exceptional. Basically he's going to be very good and in the upper tier of defenders at his position assuming he stays @ 2nd, which is looking more and more like the case.

As far as Juan goes that was my initial reaction to this question about his prowess. SS he is above avg. in most areas but lacks good range, he is simply solid. But at 3B he has less room to cover and his strength is to his left which bodes well for him playing 3B as a defender and therefore worthy to be a MLBP. Plus I know that people don't care for his bat and he is definitely not an everyday player based on that, but I have always felt that if you use him in the right situations (any situation that calls for the ball to be put in play) and against particular pitchers (non strikeout pitchers) he can do the job.

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 09:55 PM
Ok. Wait. So part of your attempt at "objective" study was having a guy ask you what you already thought about a player? That's deep.

Actually our discussion went way beyond that. I wish I had the typing skills to go into the word for word conversation. Unfortuantely all I would do is diminish Bobby and Jim's words. I used the "end" of our conversation because I thought it was so telling. Jim made some really good points about Jeff Blauser and Jay Bell. Guys who were considered Fundamentally Sound and over achievers in the game. I should have taped the whole discussion. He used a light comparison of the Braves using Rafael Belliard in the 90's to play in spots or come on for defense. He even talked about the Braves using Ozzie Guillen.

Leave it to you to go negative and smart elleck and to take away from someone who is very well respected. Same 'ol Steel. :rolleyes:

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 09:57 PM
Very interesting breakdown there TC! My question would be, how do people feel about BP? My guess would be that he lacks the experience to position himself correctly at all times (That happens to be my stance on alot of the Reds fielders BTW) which if true is a result of coaching. IMO he has above avg. range, arm strength, instincts and agility. His hands are solid but not necc. exceptional. Basically he's going to be very good and in the upper tier of defenders at his position assuming he stays @ 2nd, which is looking more and more like the case.

As far as Juan goes that was my initial reaction to this question about his prowess. SS he is above avg. in most areas but lacks good range, he is simply solid. But at 3B he has less room to cover and his strength is to his left which bodes well for him playing 3B as a defender and therefore worthy to be a MLBP. Plus I know that people don't care for his bat and he is definitely not an everyday player based on that, but I have always felt that if you use him in the right situations (any situation that calls for the ball to be put in play) and against particular pitchers (non strikeout pitchers) he can do the job.

The jury is still out on Phillips. I like him a lot. I like the way he settled in and battled. His defense is pretty darn good. He's a notch below Hudson for now. Give him another year and we'll see what experience teaches him.

RedsManRick
11-12-2006, 10:07 PM
Thanks for the scouting report from this season TC. That stuff is informative. I don't put much stock in the latter comments, given that guys' reputations, defensive in particular, tend to have a little bit more staying power than their skills actually do. In any case, even if we say that Castro is a top 10 defender at SS, there's still lots of room for the discussion about whether he's worth a roster spot and how he should be used effectively.

It's one thing if he's only playing defense in the 9th of close games. But every time he gets 4 AB's, his value to the team goes down. If he could sustain the .740 OPS he put up in Cincy, I'd be thrilled. But he's more likely to .640 or lower the next two years and that hurts a team. Cyclone and Steel will throw out the RC/9 and whatnot that the stat haters roll their eyes at, but the bottom line is that as 25th man utility defenisve MI with some mentoring potential, he's fine. Unfortunately, we don't have a mananger that tends to utilize his bench logically and as Cyclone has discussed, historically the Reds skimp on investments that make sense while giving 1MM to an aging defensive only guy.

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 10:15 PM
Thanks for the scouting report from this season TC. That stuff is informative. I don't put much stock in the latter comments, given that guys' reputations, defensive in particular, tend to have a little bit more staying power than their skills actually do. In any case, even if we say that Castro is a top 10 defender at SS, there's still lots of room for the discussion about whether he's worth a roster spot and how he should be used effectively.

It's one thing if he's only playing defense in the 9th of close games. But every time he gets 4 AB's, his value to the team goes down. If he could sustain the .740 OPS he put up in Cincy, I'd be thrilled. But he's more likely to .640 or lower the next two years and that hurts a team. Cyclone and Steel will throw out the RC/9 and whatnot that the stat haters roll their eyes at, but the bottom line is that as 25th man utility defenisve MI with some mentoring potential, he's fine. Unfortunately, we don't have a mananger that tends to utilize his bench logically and as Cyclone has discussed, historically the Reds skimp on investments that make sense while giving 1MM to an aging defensive only guy.


GREAT post. I can agree with most of what you just said or at least be willing to really have a good debate about what I may disagree with. Funny how this whole thread developed into a Juan Castro debate. A good one at that.

I really like how you worded this post. Made me think about the Value of Castro. Would he have the same value to the Mets? Probably not. Angels? No. Marlins? Maybe. Pirates. Yes. Red Sox. Yes. Something to ponder. Great stuff Rick!:thumbup:

gonelong
11-12-2006, 10:22 PM
IMO it again comes down to Positioning, Fielding ability and Game Intelligence. He's pretty darn good at those 3 things.

... all those things are helpful, and worthwhile checkboxes to have filled. OTOH the guy has 5 career SBs in 2100+ ABs. That is not a misprint, 5. Positioning knowledge is great, but it also means you are leaving the "other" side more vulnerable. Castro isn't getting to the "other" side very often at SS IMO, he just doesn't have the foot-speed to get it done.

At 3B he is probably a bit more valuable with the glove. The downside is that he is replacing one of your better bats whenever he comes in. If Juan gets even one AB in place of EE, IMO you have easily lost whatever edge you hoped to gain by putting Juan in the game.



Jim and Bobby


If you can, ask these guys to go into specifics about what they think of Griffey's fielding. That should be pretty interesting. :)

GL

RedsManRick
11-12-2006, 10:40 PM
Thanks TC. I think part of the Castro debate is a reflection of Reds management stocking the last 5-6 spots of the 25 man with 25th man type guys. It's a history of Jimmy Haynes, Joey Hamilton, Tony Womack, etc. who borderline guys at best and end up as key members of the team. If any of us had confidence that Castro would get 60-70 ABs as he subs in defensively, the outcry would be much smaller. But to paraphrase gonelong, if he gets 250 AB and puts up his career OPS, he's done as much harm with his bat as he has done good with his glove. Throw in the suspicion that his glove is much reputation than practice these days, and you can understand the complaints. Now you can take back your compliment =P.

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 10:43 PM
... all those things are helpful, and worthwhile checkboxes to have filled. OTOH the guy has 5 career SBs in 2100+ ABs. That is not a misprint, 5. Positioning knowledge is great, but it also means you are leaving the "other" side more vulnerable. Castro isn't getting to the "other" side very often at SS IMO, he just doesn't have the foot-speed to get it done.

At 3B he is probably a bit more valuable with the glove. The downside is that he is replacing one of your better bats whenever he comes in. If Juan gets even one AB in place of EE, IMO you have easily lost whatever edge you hoped to gain by putting Juan in the game.



If you can, ask these guys to go into specifics about what they think of Griffey's fielding. That should be pretty interesting. :)

GL

If I had a little more time I would love to do that. They both know JR pretty well. I'm sure they have a unique perspective.

I'm not sure that SB's equates to Fielding pct. or range but you may be on to something. Certainly you would expect some of your faster players to play SS/2B/CF. Bill Mazeroski only had 27 SB's in 17 seasons if that tells you anything.

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 10:48 PM
Thanks TC. I think part of the Castro debate is a reflection of Reds management stocking the last 5-6 spots of the 25 man with 25th man type guys. It's a history of Jimmy Haynes, Joey Hamilton, Tony Womack, etc. who borderline guys at best and end up as key members of the team. If any of us had confidence that Castro would get 60-70 ABs as he subs in defensively, the outcry would be much smaller. But to paraphrase gonelong, if he gets 250 AB and puts up his career OPS, he's done as much harm with his bat as he has done good with his glove. Throw in the suspicion that his glove is much reputation than practice these days, and you can understand the complaints. Now you can take back your compliment =P.

I completely understand where you are coming from. Castro's stick makes him a liability. Although he performed well above his norm this year that was probably an anomoly. His glove is why he is here. To be honest I can't say that his glove is based on reputation. Vizquel, yes I can say that in part. Castro has demonstrated that he can field and he can do it at more than one position. He also happens to be better than the guys he is replacing for that purpose. That measuring stick itself is muddy because of Clayton, EE, Lopez and Aurilia have shown some "difficulty". Aurilia did show that he can get to a ball at SS in the hole. He just can't do anything with it. When things were going really bad at SS he stepped in and at least did a "decent" job while compensating with a Red Hot bat. On another team, as you and I seem to agree, his value very well may diminish.

vaticanplum
11-12-2006, 11:00 PM
Castro's stick makes him a liability.

Ten bucks for the first excellent Dick Pole joke here.

(I'm sorry, I really won't do it anymore. My five-year-old self just can't help itself sometimes.)

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 11:03 PM
Ten bucks for the first excellent Dick Pole joke here.

(I'm sorry, I really won't do it anymore. My five-year-old self just can't help itself sometimes.)

I must resist. Must....make...my fingers...type...appropriate...words!!!

Team Clark
11-12-2006, 11:06 PM
My question to everyone who has particiapted in this discussion is this... If not Castro then who? Who is available that you would "RELY" on at 2B, SS, 3B in a reserve role to play Above Average. Not a Geoff Blum, get me by player right??? Chris Woodward? Kaz Matsui? Tony Graffanino? What other options are there for guys who have actually logged some time at those positions and could start for 10 days if pressed.

RedsManRick
11-12-2006, 11:18 PM
What was Bergolla's rep TC? What about Olmedo? I understood that these guys were both primarily glove guys. One would think they could get that type of defensive backing for 325k or whatever the minimum is with a AAA guy.

gonelong
11-12-2006, 11:59 PM
My question to everyone who has particiapted in this discussion is this... If not Castro then who?

Who? Who cares? ;) IMO get a body as cheap as possible, even if it means pulling up a guy from the minors. Save $1.5M and sweeten the offer for productive players of any position. Easy net gain IMO.

EE should be left in at 3B to see if his defense continues to develop, I give him the entire year no questions asked. Brandon Phillips is my SS for the year. I don't expect him to hit all that well, but I give him the chance to establish himself. At 2B I play RichA and/or RyanF.


Who is available that you would "RELY" on at 2B, SS, 3B in a reserve role to play Above Average.

I'd rely on an additional $1.5M in the bullpen.


What other options are there for guys who have actually logged some time at those positions and could start for 10 days if pressed.

If you are starting Juan Castro for 10 days ... ouch.

GL

SteelSD
11-13-2006, 12:22 AM
Actually our discussion went way beyond that. I wish I had the typing skills to go into the word for word conversation. Unfortuantely all I would do is diminish Bobby and Jim's words. I used the "end" of our conversation because I thought it was so telling. Jim made some really good points about Jeff Blauser and Jay Bell. Guys who were considered Fundamentally Sound and over achievers in the game. I should have taped the whole discussion. He used a light comparison of the Braves using Rafael Belliard in the 90's to play in spots or come on for defense. He even talked about the Braves using Ozzie Guillen.

Leave it to you to go negative and smart elleck and to take away from someone who is very well respected. Same 'ol Steel. :rolleyes:

Hey, not that I don't appreciate the effort, but if you're going to bring information to the table you know you're going to have to defend it, same as me.

In this case, you had to realize someone was going to question a methodology that involved you answering questions with opinions you already held. Contrary to what you may have taken from my post, that wasn't an indictment of either you or Bobby Wine; simply a question as to methodology. And, as you mentioned yourself, you didn't note that your conversation went any deeper than that. Unfortunately, you responded with a backhand slap and a rolling eyes emoticon. Bad idea. Really bad idea.

So while you're getting all defensive I should, in all honesty, tell you that there are issues with the form and content of your Fregosi/Wine conversational recounts. Additionally, your defense of not wanting to "diminish" the words of Fregosi/Wine is rendered moot considering that the only Fregosi quote you cited was an indictment of Brandon Inge's intelligence. You really think Fregosi would want that quote riding around the internet? I'm no Shelbourne University grad, but I'm smart enough to know the answer to that rhetorical question.

Your last (and largest) mistake was so hidden in plain sight that everyone else missed it. Heck, I almost missed it. No professional baseball scout in their right mind is going to pull up a database of their team's internal scouting records and share those records on a public message board. A scout would have to be actually looking to get fired to do what you did.

So either you're just making it all up as you go along or you value attention more than you do your career. Neither option allows me to consider you as someone who has an iota of credibility.

You're done. Move along.

Team Clark
11-13-2006, 01:31 AM
Hey, not that I don't appreciate the effort, but if you're going to bring information to the table you know you're going to have to defend it, same as me.

In this case, you had to realize someone was going to question a methodology that involved you answering questions with opinions you already held. Contrary to what you may have taken from my post, that wasn't an indictment of either you or Bobby Wine; simply a question as to methodology. And, as you mentioned yourself, you didn't note that your conversation went any deeper than that. Unfortunately, you responded with a backhand slap and a rolling eyes emoticon. Bad idea. Really bad idea.

So while you're getting all defensive I should, in all honesty, tell you that there are issues with the form and content of your Fregosi/Wine conversational recounts. Additionally, your defense of not wanting to "diminish" the words of Fregosi/Wine is rendered moot considering that the only Fregosi quote you cited was an indictment of Brandon Inge's intelligence. You really think Fregosi would want that quote riding around the internet? I'm no Shelbourne University grad, but I'm smart enough to know the answer to that rhetorical question.

Your last (and largest) mistake was so hidden in plain sight that everyone else missed it. Heck, I almost missed it. No professional baseball scout in their right mind is going to pull up a database of their team's internal scouting records and share those records on a public message board. A scout would have to be actually looking to get fired to do what you did.

So either you're just making it all up as you go along or you value attention more than you do your career. Neither option allows me to consider you as someone who has an iota of credibility.

You're done. Move along.


Nice try.

Most of the info I have is available on the web. You just have to look for it. What did I post that you probably could not look up? Very little excpet my quick calls to Bobby or Jim. Each of which were asked if I could post any comments they made. Since you do not know Jim Fregosi very well, you made an idiotic statement on his behalf. Nothing new.

I'm not sure how you took my comments as defensive but then again you usually overreact to anything that is posted in reference to your posts.


I'm done? Like your opinion matters to me? As if you were an authority figure....:laugh: Sorry Dad. I will ask before I take the car out again. Ohh and nice spin on your own words. Everyone except you can see through that.

I enjoy you Steel. I do. You're not as bad as people say IMO. You're pretty smart, you make good arguments and you can be persuasive. You've changed my mind on a couple of posts. I just can not figure out why you attack people so ferociously and then get all upset when they say something back. Especially when you start it. It's just a shame. You always step in a ruin the post for everyone. Sad.

Team Clark
11-13-2006, 01:34 AM
Who? Who cares? ;) IMO get a body as cheap as possible, even if it means pulling up a guy from the minors. Save $1.5M and sweeten the offer for productive players of any position. Easy net gain IMO.

EE should be left in at 3B to see if his defense continues to develop, I give him the entire year no questions asked. Brandon Phillips is my SS for the year. I don't expect him to hit all that well, but I give him the chance to establish himself. At 2B I play RichA and/or RyanF.



I'd rely on an additional $1.5M in the bullpen.



If you are starting Juan Castro for 10 days ... ouch.

GL


Pretty good post. That's a new twist to the Juan Castro theory. I'd can Castro in favor of Bullpen help.

Team Clark
11-13-2006, 01:36 AM
What was Bergolla's rep TC? What about Olmedo? I understood that these guys were both primarily glove guys. One would think they could get that type of defensive backing for 325k or whatever the minimum is with a AAA guy.

I have very little on Bergolla. Same with Olmedo. I can get Olmedo's info it just takes awhile to sort.

SteelSD
11-13-2006, 02:06 AM
Nice try.

Most of the info I have is available on the web. You just have to look for it. What did I post that you probably could not look up? Very little excpet my quick calls to Bobby or Jim. Each of which were asked if I could post any comments they made. Since you do not know Jim Fregosi very well, you made an idiotic statement on his behalf. Nothing new.

I'm not sure how you took my comments as defensive but then again you usually overreact to anything that is posted in reference to your posts.

I'm done? Like your opinion matters to me? As if you were an authority figure....:laugh: Sorry Dad. I will ask before I take the car out again. Ohh and nice spin on your own words. Everyone except you can see through that.

I enjoy you Steel. I do. You're not as bad as people say IMO. You're pretty smart, you make good arguments and you can be persuasive. You've changed my mind on a couple of posts. I just can not figure out why you attack people so ferociously and then get all upset when they say something back. Especially when you start it. It's just a shame. You always step in a ruin the post for everyone. Sad.

See, another bad choice by you to attack. Prior to that, I'd been willing to allow you to sit on the fringe of ridiculous. But now, no way. It's time for folks to know what I know.

You never played high school baseball. At least not to Ron Roth's recollection. Your previous claim of playing professional baseball has been completely debunked by Moehller High School's list of professional players. Shelbourne University is a scam school. Anyone with five hundred bucks can get a degree from there. Thank God Moeller removed their "degree" listing from their website.

Rob Butcher revoked your press pass because you kept insisting that Reds' players should give you autographs. As if that wasn't dumb enough, Tom Browning fired you when you were with the Florence Freedom because you couldn't stop going out with players to drink after hours. There's no record of you ever either playing or working for the MLB teams you claim. None.

And you can freakin' bet that I've got inquiries to Devil Rays beat writers as to whether or not you're a scout for that organization. Not that I'll be surprised by the results considering that only an imbecile would actually share privileged internal scouting information on a public message board.

And all the while you claimed to be roaming the country scouting players, your posts originated from the same Cincinnati IP address. Either you're a brilliant re-router (unlikely) or you're just not smart.

I know who you are and I know what you are and I'll be damned if I'm going to let you take this charade any further.

forfreelin04
11-13-2006, 03:23 AM
See, another bad choice by you to attack. Prior to that, I'd been willing to allow you to sit on the fringe of ridiculous. But now, no way. It's time for folks to know what I know.

You never played high school baseball. At least not to Ron Roth's recollection. Your previous claim of playing professional baseball has been completely debunked by Moehller High School's list of professional players. Shelbourne University is a scam school. Anyone with five hundred bucks can get a degree from there. Thank God Moeller removed their "degree" listing from their website.

Rob Butcher revoked your press pass because you kept insisting that Reds' players should give you autographs. As if that wasn't dumb enough, Tom Browning fired you when you were with the Florence Freedom because you couldn't stop going out with players to drink after hours. There's no record of you ever either playing or working for the MLB teams you claim. None.

And you can freakin' bet that I've got inquiries to Devil Rays beat writers as to whether or not you're a scout for that organization. Not that I'll be surprised by the results considering that only an imbecile would actually share privileged internal scouting information on a public message board.

And all the while you claimed to be roaming the country scouting players, your posts originated from the same Cincinnati IP address. Either you're a brilliant re-router (unlikely) or you're just not smart.

I know who you are and I know what you are and I'll be damned if I'm going to let you take this charade any further.


Is there any rules against stalking other posters?:eek:

RANDY IN INDY
11-13-2006, 06:54 AM
I did some digging. I pulled up all of the defensive data on the Reds and Juan Castro that our scouting system holds. All of this data is input by scouts who have been in attendance at a particular game. So, no one is watching and evaluating the Reds on Fox from their home in CA for example. All of this data is put in throughout a season. We saw the Reds play either directly (for purposes of evaluating Reds' talent for a trade) or indirectly (evaluating who the Reds were playing) on 68 occasions. 40 of those games occured AFTER Juan Castro was acquired. Juan played in 22 of those games and started 9. Juan played SS in 14 of those games and 3B in 8. Playing both positions in the same game twice. We saw Juan play as a Twin 16 times each game played at SS. So, I have 38 games to work with. 30 Games at SS and 8 at 3B. I just want everyone to have an idea of what I am looking at as far as the initial breakdown of data.

I called Former Big League Manager and Atlanta Braves Super Scout Jim Fregosi, who was a big league SS, for an opinion. I also called Bobby Wine as he is Atlanta's Advance Scout and a top advisor to Mr. Schuerholz. I called both of them because they are probably the two smartest and well respected evaluators in the business. I completely respect Cyclone and Steel's data and find it revealing and invigorating. Calling Jim and Bobby gives me an equal opinion from across the table.

First the Data:

What I have here is pretty good stuff. I pulled our reports on the two Gold Glovers up the Middle. Orlando Hudson and Omar Vizquel. As well as 3B Scott Rolen. I wanted to see what was written and input about those very good defensive players and how it compared, if at all, to Juan. Of the observations made on Castro and compared to O & O I thought it was funny that in one observation Castro's name was mentioned. "Still makes the backhand as smooth as a Juan Castro". :laugh:

I'll start with 3B. Now, Juan is an above average 3B in my opinion because of three things. 1) Positioning 2) Fielding ability 3) Game intelligence Obviously Rolen is rated way over the top of Castro. Every fielding category has Rolen rated at the top. Backhand, Forehand, going back on a ball, coming in, cutting across, feed to 2B, playing in front of the bag, behind the bag and an overall "range" ratingas well as an "arm rating. The only 3B that are at that level or "HAVE BEEN CLOSE" in the last 4-5 years are Eric Chavez, Alex Rodriguez (whose ratings have obviously fallen), and David Bell. So, how does Juan Rate? On a grading scale of 1-8 Juan is a 6 in almost every category. He's a 7 on the feed to 2B and backhand. I can attest to that. For further comaprison EE is a 4 in most areas 5 in a few and a 7 in ARM. David Wright is a consistent 6/7. Aramis Ramirez is 4/5. Chipper Jones is a consistent 5. Ryan Zimmerman is a consistent 6 with a few 7's and will probably one day end up like Rolen. Juan "Rates" pretty well as a 3B. The trouble is that his fielding sample is so small as a 3B that it is tough for me to Gauge him long term or properly against everyday 3B. I was just curious to see how he did in other people's eyes. I did notice reading these game notes, albeit a small sample, that Juan was involved in a lot of plays at 3B. He managed them flawlessly. A number of times he was playing 3B coming off the bench and made plays that were not considered routine. You can not practice those in the tunnel. On at least 5 occasions he replaced EE after EE had commited at least 1 error. Could this skew the evaluation? I'm not sure. Certainly Juan is not one of the Boyer brothers at 3B but he is at least "rated" above average based on what others saw in his performance. I tend to agree based upon what I have seen over the years. IMO it again comes down to Positioning, Fielding ability and Game Intelligence. He's pretty darn good at those 3 things.

SS: Cyclone and Gonelong brought up a GREAT point about positioning. As I cycled through the SS's and their evaluations I noticed the common theme. Almost every SS camps out 1-3 steps closer to the hole depending on of course the hitter and or type of pitcher. They all do it. A ball that just gets by them that maybe they looked like they should have had, may have been a ball they were not expecting in that spot based on a tendency. So, does that affect his range? If everyone is doing the same thing then what is the benchmark? Do you need to be quicker to your right if you are already standing there? Or is that why you have more "range" to your left because an off-hit ball requires you to hustle up the middle for it. Every big league infielder I have ever met or coached is quicker/"rangier", if you will, to their glove side. Remember I had Ordonez in AAA. I've seen no one since him with his type of range. He'd be an 11. :laugh: Vizquel actually rates pretty well with his glove. 6/7's mostly. That is JUST based on how he fields the ball. His range is decidedly average. To his left is where he really slows down. He's a 4. We observed 31 "moderate" ground balls over the bag and he did not touch ONE. To his right he rated in the 7's but he typically plays in the hole and really camps out there most of the game. In the advance reports we talk about the ability to "hard Bunt" to Durham because he cheats up the middle. Niekro is pretty slow and Right Handed. With a Lefty on the mound and a good bunter you could pull that off two or three times. Vizquel's arm is a 5 out of 8. Eckstein's arm is a 5. Just enough. Vizquel is the epitome of playing smart. Juan is on that Cerebral level with more ability. For the record I think using Vizquel is not that great of an example because honestly I do not think he is a gold glover. Yeah I know he only had a few errors, etc... but he doesn't GET TO anything. Durham covers more SS AS A 2B than he does and he's old too!!

I could not do a 2B comparison. No data. I did notice that Orlando Hudson has some of the best comments, along with Rolen, attached to his info. "TREMENDOUS" hands, long reaching range and ability to snap a ball back to 1B instantly. Complete awareness of the field, superior anticipation skills, the best footwork at 2B in the Big Leagues. His cuts and angles are practiced and flawless. Here's a good one "His hands are so soft I'm not sure why he bothers with a glove at all". We have him charted on 12 occasions making plays on the SS side of the bag 8-10 feet behind 2B. That is outstanding. I really do not think Juan can do that. Then again I'm not sure even Brandon Phillips can either.


Jim and Bobby:

Well they both like him. Neither thinks he is the greatest thing since sliced bread but they both feel he is an "exceptional" glove man. They both made mention that his bat is what surprised some people while he was a Red. Jim liked him because he is always confident in the field and knows exactly what to do with the baseball. He pointed out some of the Tigers deficiencies and said "I bet they wish Inge had Castro's brains" LOL! I would agree. I told them both about the discussion. I put out my theories, they listened. I talked about the charts and the expected vs. actual, etc... Bobby said this "Is the guy Ozzie Smith"? I said "No". "Does he make all of the plays anyone would expect him to make"? IMO, "Yes". "Is he BETTER than the players he replaces"? IMO "Yes". As Bobby says "There ya have it". Certainly there is more debate but I still believe Juan is an above average fielder and a "worthy" Major League Baseball Player.


I wanted to use the Inside Edge Data but there really isn't any. The system is not designed for this type of use. It can tell you where to position a guy in a certain situation but it can not tell you if the fielder did his job. I was a little dissapointed after I dug into the Defensive chart that none of it is based on actual, visual observation. Just one mathematic equation after another. Although I found them to be pretty darn good I can say that I would never solely base any decision on this info.

Thanks, TC. That was a very good post. Thanks for going to all the trouble.

RFS62
11-13-2006, 07:02 AM
Just read this little soap opera, and I can't believe how gutless and cowardly this attack is. And it is an attack, make no mistake about it.

If all you were concerned about was the truth, couldn't all of this be done in private? But that's not your style, is it?

Gutless internet coward.

I guess if you're right Steel, Ken Griffey and Tom Hume are in on the little scam too? Yep, they're risking their reputations helping to perpetrate this whole thing. I'm sorry, you probably haven't had time to depose them yet. Let us know when you get their statements back.

Steel, would you have the guts to say any of this stuff to TC's face, I wonder? Actually, I don't wonder at all.

Reds4Life
11-13-2006, 07:05 AM
Hey, not that I don't appreciate the effort, but if you're going to bring information to the table you know you're going to have to defend it, same as me.

In this case, you had to realize someone was going to question a methodology that involved you answering questions with opinions you already held. Contrary to what you may have taken from my post, that wasn't an indictment of either you or Bobby Wine; simply a question as to methodology. And, as you mentioned yourself, you didn't note that your conversation went any deeper than that. Unfortunately, you responded with a backhand slap and a rolling eyes emoticon. Bad idea. Really bad idea.

So while you're getting all defensive I should, in all honesty, tell you that there are issues with the form and content of your Fregosi/Wine conversational recounts. Additionally, your defense of not wanting to "diminish" the words of Fregosi/Wine is rendered moot considering that the only Fregosi quote you cited was an indictment of Brandon Inge's intelligence. You really think Fregosi would want that quote riding around the internet? I'm no Shelbourne University grad, but I'm smart enough to know the answer to that rhetorical question.

Your last (and largest) mistake was so hidden in plain sight that everyone else missed it. Heck, I almost missed it. No professional baseball scout in their right mind is going to pull up a database of their team's internal scouting records and share those records on a public message board. A scout would have to be actually looking to get fired to do what you did.

So either you're just making it all up as you go along or you value attention more than you do your career. Neither option allows me to consider you as someone who has an iota of credibility.

You're done. Move along.

I've gotten multiple complaints about this post just this morning. Take this stuff private, your attitude toward posters who do not share your views needs to change or perhaps you need some time off from Redszone.

RANDY IN INDY
11-13-2006, 07:34 AM
That was the most blatant, cowardly attack that I have ever read on Redszone. I've seen a lot on this board, but this is the absolute worst. Stunning.

Team Clark
11-13-2006, 07:37 AM
I'm not even going to respond. That is a new level of ridiculous.

GAC
11-13-2006, 08:19 AM
Just read this little soap opera, and I can't believe how gutless and cowardly this attack is. And it is an attack, make no mistake about it.

If all you were concerned about was the truth, couldn't all of this be done in private? But that's not your style, is it?

Gutless internet coward.

I guess if you're right Steel, Ken Griffey and Tom Hume are in on the little scam too? Yep, they're risking their reputations helping to perpetrate this whole thing. I'm sorry, you probably haven't had time to depose them yet. Let us know when you get their statements back.

Steel, would you have the guts to say any of this stuff to TC's face, I wonder? Actually, I don't wonder at all.

Man! I couldn't agree more. I mean....Wow! That almost boarders on an obsessive-compulsive behavior (stalking) to find out that another poster is putting in so much "detective" work, and that much of an effort, investigating another poster "behind the scenes", just so that you can, at some point, pull your "trump card" out to publically attempt to humiliate and destroy their reputation. It's J. Edgar Hoover scary!

Even if what you claim is true Steele, you should have addressed him privately.

What you did, IMO, was shameful and very childish. Bluntly? A terrible personal attack that was unwarranted.

Do you feel better now?

I noticed that TC and Cyclone were carrying on the same discussion over Castro, and both were able to keep it on a respectful and even keel, even while disagreeing.

Why couldn't you?

Chip R
11-13-2006, 09:22 AM
It's nice all of you have your opinions over this little row but practice what you preach and keep it private or else I'm going to close the thread.

Heath
11-13-2006, 09:48 AM
It's nice all of you have your opinions over this little row but practice what you preach and keep it private or else I'm going to close the thread.

Probably wouldn't be a bad idea anyway and for it to disappear.

Wow - from someone who consistantly harps on not attacking other posters and then absolutely goes hypocritical on one poster is blinded by his own ego. Not good.