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Matt700wlw
11-14-2006, 04:03 PM
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com

Reds GM Wayne Krivsky hasn't wrenched his back yet trying to move Dunn, but lots of people say he's in full-fledged listening mode.
Dunn hit 40 homers for the third straight season, and the tape-measure jobs still generate oohs and ahs. But his combined on-base/slugging percentage has dipped from .957 to .855 since 2004, and some people think his heart went out of it a little bit after the Reds traded his buddy Austin Kearns to Washington. He never projected a tremendous amount of fire before that.

"He's a very strange package," said an American League executive. "The power is incredible, obviously, and he does walk a lot. But the defense is brutal and the strikeouts are brutal. I think they'd move him if they could."

Krivsky spent a lot of years in Minnesota, where the Twins stressed pitching and defense, and Dunn doesn't fit that philosophy. Cost is also a concern. Dunn will make $10.5 million in 2007, and the Reds have a $13 million option for 2008. That's a lot of money for a DH -- especially in a league where the position doesn't exist.

Here's the problem: While Krivsky made some inspired acquisitions last offseason -- adding Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips -- he put a dent in his offensive surplus when he traded Kearns and Felipe Lopez to the Nationals in July. The Reds ranked ninth in the NL in runs scored, and Rich Aurilia, who hit 23 homers, is a free agent. If Krivsky moves Dunn, he'll want both pitching and an impact bat in return.

Baltimore and Texas are among the American League clubs that might have an interest. The Astros are more likely to pursue Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano through free agency, but they'll at least kick the tires on Dunn.

Pittsburgh makes some sense, given the short right field at PNC Park and the team's need for a lefty power hitter. But it's hard to see the Pirates shelling out the coin for Dunn. They're more likely to focus on a younger, less costly bat, such as Arizona's Chad Tracy or Florida's Mike Jacobs.


Full story:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2661411

joshnky
11-14-2006, 04:13 PM
I know Adam Dunn is frustrating and a lot of people around here can't wait to see him go but I'd really hate to see him go. Consider that we trade him for pitching and can't replace his offense in a weak free agent market. Do you really want to see an offense on the field next year centered around Edwin Encarnacion? Dunn, for all his faults (and he has many), brings star power and an awe factor that makes people, including me, want to watch the team. This is just my opinion and I know that the stats do not back up such a qualitive argument but I for one would be much less interested next year in an offense lacking someone of Dunn's abilities (or potential depending on how you look at it)? Just my .02.

oneupper
11-14-2006, 04:15 PM
My wife bought me a #44 Dunn shirt for my birthday. That makes Adam untradeable.

westofyou
11-14-2006, 04:22 PM
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com


Hey Jerry.... are you wearing a shirt?

There would/will/could be a lot to miss when and if Dunn is dealt.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 04:23 PM
Let me throw this out and see what you think. In order for the Reds to put the Kearns/Lopez for Majeski deal to rest with Washington the following deal is done:

Reds trade Dunn and Majeski to Washington for RHP Chad Cordero, LHP Mike O'Connor and OF Ryan Church.

For the Reds, they get a closer in Cordero. Church either plays in RF or LF depending where Junior plays in 2007. Playing in cozy GAB should improve his numbers compared to playing in Death Valley which is called RFK Stadium. O'Connor gives the Reds a young lefty for the starting rotation. The money saved by dealing Dunn can be used to sign a free agent starter, second baseman and add possibly another OF.

For the Nationals, Bowden gets another player he covets from the Reds, and he puts the Majewski trade to rest by taking him back and trading Cordero. Of course the Nats will need a closer and expect Jon Rauch to get first crack.

What do you think?

harangatang
11-14-2006, 04:30 PM
What I don't get about Krivsky supposedly hating Dunn is the fact that he signed Dunn to a 2 year contract with an option for a 3rd. Even though Dunn's numbers were a little better last year, he's still the same Adam Dunn as in year's past. Why would Krivsky sign Dunn last year and look to trade him this year? If it is to improve the team then that's fine but this article basically says the Reds want to trade Dunn because they don't like his style of play. It makes no sense.

cincyinco
11-14-2006, 04:30 PM
My wife bought me a #44 Dunn shirt for my birthday. That makes Adam untradeable.

Thats what I thought when I bought my authentic Austin Kearns jersey last year.. low and behold, he got shipped out.

I hope you didn't just jinx the donk! ;)

Heath
11-14-2006, 04:30 PM
Let me throw this out and see what you think. In order for the Reds to put the Kearns/Lopez for Majeski deal to rest with Washington the following deal is done:

Reds trade Dunn and Majeski to Washington for RHP Chad Cordero, LHP Mike O'Connor and OF Ryan Church.

For the Reds, they get a closer in Cordero. Church either plays in RF or LF depending where Junior plays in 2007. Playing in cozy GAB should improve his numbers compared to playing in Death Valley which is called RFK Stadium. O'Connor gives the Reds a young lefty for the starting rotation. The money saved by dealing Dunn can be used to sign a free agent starter, second baseman and add possibly another OF.

For the Nationals, Bowden gets another player he covets from the Reds, and he puts the Majewski trade to rest by taking him back and trading Cordero. Of course the Nats will need a closer and expect Jon Rauch to get first crack.

What do you think?

No thanks, not enough. I think someone in the AL would take a flyer on Dunn.

cincyinco
11-14-2006, 04:31 PM
I'd want more than that Krusty.. I want there better pitching prospects.. Clint Everts.. Mike Hinckley

and even they aren't all that great.

I'd maybe even go for a PTBNL, as Wash had a solid draft last year..

Handofdeath
11-14-2006, 04:31 PM
Let me throw this out and see what you think. In order for the Reds to put the Kearns/Lopez for Majeski deal to rest with Washington the following deal is done:

Reds trade Dunn and Majeski to Washington for RHP Chad Cordero, LHP Mike O'Connor and OF Ryan Church.

For the Reds, they get a closer in Cordero. Church either plays in RF or LF depending where Junior plays in 2007. Playing in cozy GAB should improve his numbers compared to playing in Death Valley which is called RFK Stadium. O'Connor gives the Reds a young lefty for the starting rotation. The money saved by dealing Dunn can be used to sign a free agent starter, second baseman and add possibly another OF.

For the Nationals, Bowden gets another player he covets from the Reds, and he puts the Majewski trade to rest by taking him back and trading Cordero. Of course the Nats will need a closer and expect Jon Rauch to get first crack.

What do you think?

If I'm Krivsky I would put Bowden's number on Call Blocker.

dfs
11-14-2006, 04:46 PM
Do you trade adam dunn for miguel tejada?

I'm just sayin....

Joseph
11-14-2006, 04:48 PM
My wife bought me a #44 Dunn shirt for my birthday. That makes Adam untradeable.

I think you mean more likely to be traded.

shredda2000
11-14-2006, 04:52 PM
My wife bought me a #44 Dunn shirt for my birthday. That makes Adam untradeable.

Did she buy it on sale? :D

FutureRedsGM
11-14-2006, 04:52 PM
Do you trade adam dunn for miguel tejada?

I'm just sayin....

Yes. Although I would like to include Larue and/or Cormier in the deal to get a pitching prospect or two in return.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 04:56 PM
The Reds biggest need this offseason is closer. As for free agency, unless you sign a Eric Gagne to a one-year deal loaded with incentives, there aren't any bonafide closers worth a sniff. In order for the Reds to get an established closer, they will need to make a trade. And to get that closer the most marketable player the Reds have is Dunn.

Now you have the case involving the Nationals? Did the Reds file paperwork with MLB over the trade? If they did, it seems reworking the trade or doing another deal that is satisfactory to the Reds would resolve it. Chad Cordero is an established closer and relatively young. He is one pitcher Bowden would hate to part but we all know Bowden drafted Dunn and would salivate at the first opportunity to acquire Dunn to replenish some lost home run power with the departure of Soriano.

Now the Reds could still keep Majeski and make the trade Dunn for Cordero/Church. IMO, it is easier to sign a free agent outfielder than trying to acquire a free agent closer. And with Dunn's salary off the books, the Reds should be able to reel in the likes of Jose Guillen, Trot Nixon and other B-type free agents to offset the offensive dropoff.

But without a bonafide closer, this club goes nowhere in 2007.

pedro
11-14-2006, 05:09 PM
Krusty, with all the problems that the Reds have (Defense, Offense, STARTING PITCHING) I can't believe you think the Reds biggest problem is a closer, someone who might pitch 60 innings over the course of the year.

The Reds problem in 2006 wasn't the closer, it was getting to the end of the game with a lead and there are a myriad of other issues that led to that situation.

Matt700wlw
11-14-2006, 05:12 PM
Well....I have a Dunn figurine.

I also have a Wily Mo and Lopez bobblehead....

Do you see where this is going? :D

RedsManRick
11-14-2006, 05:13 PM
The Cards and Tigers certainly went no-where without a big name closer this year. Or are you gonna tell me that Jason Isringhausen (3.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 58 IP) and Todd Jones (3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 IP) were the difference makers. Could we use a reliable closer? Sure, but get me more IP of better quality, I don't care where. A proven, "bonafide" closer is one of the least cost effective ways to get it.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:14 PM
Krusty, with all the problems that the Reds have (Defense, Offense, STARTING PITCHING) I can't believe you think the Reds biggest problem is a closer, someone who might pitch 60 innings over the course of the year.

The Reds problem in 2006 wasn't the closer, it was getting to the end of the game with a lead and there are a myriad of other issues that led to that situation.

No doubt the bullpen was a problem but even Krivsky knew this team wouldn't have stayed in contention without the addition of Guardado. Weathers did alright in the beginning till he imploded at midseason. Coffey showed he didn't have the mental makeup for the job. While the Nats deal shored up middle relief it was the acquisition of Guardado that stablized the bullpen.

The other areas of the Reds can be addressed by free agency. Acquiring an established closer has to be done via trade. And if you want a good one, you better pony up especially when it is a seller's market.

I stand by what I say....the Reds won't win a thing without a bonafide closer.

westofyou
11-14-2006, 05:15 PM
Trading Dunn and then thinking Trot Nixon or Guillen is the offensive answer is a step in the wrong direction.

RedsBaron
11-14-2006, 05:15 PM
I believe "closer" may be the most overrated "position" in the history of major league baseball, perhaps in the history of mankind.
If you are talking about Mariano Rivera, yeah, getting him for closer would be great. Howver, there have been a countless number of mediocre pitchers who have been able to fill the now traditional role of coming into the game in the ninth inning, no one on base, a two+ run lead, and getting three outs, and recording a save. Danny Graves did it (for a while), Jeff Brantley did it. The Reds need another starting pitcher or three, they need a secondbaseman or shortstop (depending upon where Phillips plays), they need a centerfielder, they need more offense, they need bullpen depth--a "closer" is hardly all they need, or what they need most IMO.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:18 PM
The Cards and Tigers certainly went no-where without a big name closer this year. Or are you gonna tell me that Jason Isringhausen (3.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 58 IP) and Todd Jones (3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 IP) were the difference makers. Could we use a reliable closer? Sure, but get me more IP of better quality, I don't care where. A proven, "bonafide" closer is one of the least cost effective ways to get it.


Those veterans got you to the World Series. You saw the inexperince in Zumaya in the playoffs. Adam Wainwright was a godsend for the Cards but the Reds tried that at midseason with Coffey and he was a bust as a closer. The Blue Jays broke the bank to sign B.J. Ryan to be their closer and he produced. The Phillies signed Flash Gordon and the Mets signed Billy Wagner. Established closers.

With the game on the line in the ninth inning, last thing we need is some inexperienced reliever coming in and watching victory implode right before our eyes.

pedro
11-14-2006, 05:18 PM
I believe "closer" may be the most overrated "position" in the history of major league baseball, perhaps in the history of mankind.
If you are talking about Mariano Rivera, yeah, getting him for closer would be great. Howver, there have been a countless number of mediocre pitchers who have been able to fill the now traditional role of coming into the game in the ninth inning, no one on base, a two+ run lead, and getting three outs, and recording a save. Danny Graves did it (for a while), Jeff Brantley did it. The Reds need another starting pitcher or three, they need a secondbaseman or shortstop (depending upon where Phillips plays), they need a centerfielder, they need more offense, they need bullpen depth--a "closer" is hardly all they need, or what they need most IMO.



no kidding. hell, the Tigers went to the WS with Doug Jones as their closer. A guy the Reds basically picked up and tossed back to the scrap pile.

FutureRedsGM
11-14-2006, 05:19 PM
I'm glad a couple of you stepped up and addressed the closer issue before I did. I wouldn't have been as nice about it!!! The amount of attention that "closers" get really gets on my nerve. Closer is nothing more than an over-glorified, glamorous, bull pen position. Sure, I want a quality, dependable arm in the game at the end, but getting to the end with a lead is MUCH MORE IMPORTANT (as stated by RedsManRick and pedro). This team needs starting pitching, defense, and offense (if Dunn is moved), in that order. A "Closer" should be WAY down the wish list.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:22 PM
Trading Dunn and then thinking Trot Nixon or Guillen is the offensive answer is a step in the wrong direction.

I agree. But look at the Minnesota Twins and you'll see that offensive production is not just one player or two. And if Krivsky's intentions are to build the Reds like the Twins, then he might be looking for three or four hitters that will hit 20+ home runs instead of one player that hits 40+.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:26 PM
no kidding. hell, the Tigers went to the WS with Doug Jones as their closer. A guy the Reds basically picked up and tossed back to the scrap pile.


Look at Jones' saves in 05-06 and you'll see they are among the best in baseball. Go back alittle further and look at his first stint with the Tigers and the saves he racked up. The guy must be doing something right.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2924

Handofdeath
11-14-2006, 05:27 PM
I respectfully disagree. With an offense like the Reds, which is just as likely to score 1 run as 7, even a great pitching performance can be negated. If Arroyo throws a great 8 innings and gives up 0 runs and the Reds score just 1, then you have put yourself in a spot in the 9th inning where you have no room for mistakes. Or in any situation where your team is only up in the 9th by 1 run, you need someone who has the right skills and the right makeup to go out there and pitch. Because 1 mistake and it could be tied. 2 mistakes and you lose.

pedro
11-14-2006, 05:28 PM
Look at Jones' saves in 05-06 and you'll see they are among the best in baseball. Go back alittle further and look at his first stint with the Tigers and the saves he racked up. The guy must be doing something right.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2924


you're missing the point.

Did the Tigers have to trade their best offensive player to get Jones?

Did the Reds when they had him?

How about Philly?

How about Florida?

Patrick Bateman
11-14-2006, 05:31 PM
Look at Jones' saves in 05-06 and you'll see they are among the best in baseball. Go back alittle further and look at his first stint with the Tigers and the saves he racked up. The guy must be doing something right.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2924

Saves is incredibly misleading. Jones got basically as many opportunities as anyone because of the Tiger's great record. Even if he pitched ineffectively most of the season, he still would have racked up some saves.

Even last season when Graves was probably the worst pitcher in baseball, he still managed to save 8 out of his 10 opportunities. Saves are simply not difficult to get. It's 90% opportunity.

RichRed
11-14-2006, 05:33 PM
If Krivsky moves Dunn, he'll want both pitching and an impact bat in return.

And well he should. The thing that gives me the willies is trying to guess what qualifies as an "impact bat" in Wayneland.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:33 PM
you're missing the point.

Did the Tigers have to trade their best offensive player to get Jones?

Did the Reds when they had him?

How about Philly?

How about Florida?


I put the same trade proposal on the Nationals forum at fanhome.scout.com. And they thought it was ludcrious for them to trade Cordero for Dunn.

http://mb3.scout.com/fnationalsfrm1.showMessage?topicID=4023.topic

osuceltic
11-14-2006, 05:33 PM
Closer is a huge need and very important. But no one wants to overpay to get one. It is one of the most volatile positions in the sport. You have to be smart in trying to fill that hole. But I agree with Krusty that this is a huge need with the Reds.

OK, all you fake trade people ... Go out and find me a match -- a team that needs a hitter like Dunn that has a pitcher (starter or reliever) and a position player they'd be willing to move. Let's stay away from the expensive (Tejada) and unrealistic (A-Rod).

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:35 PM
And well he should. The thing that gives me the willies is trying to guess what qualifies as an "impact bat" in Wayneland.


Which I don't see anything happening. Why give up pitching and a young hitter when you can sign a free agent. Most teams are awash in cash this offseason.

pedro
11-14-2006, 05:36 PM
I put the same trade proposal on the Nationals forum at fanhome.scout.com. And they thought it was ludcrious for them to trade Cordero for Dunn.

http://mb3.scout.com/fnationalsfrm1.showMessage?topicID=4023.topic

and that proves what?

Patrick Bateman
11-14-2006, 05:38 PM
I put the same trade proposal on the Nationals forum at fanhome.scout.com. And they thought it was ludcrious for them to trade Cordero for Dunn.

http://mb3.scout.com/fnationalsfrm1.showMessage?topicID=4023.topic

Well to be fair, there were only two people who replied.

One who offered no reason why Cordero was worth more, and one who had no idea how to fairly evaluate a hitter.

Kc61
11-14-2006, 05:39 PM
No doubt the bullpen was a problem but even Krivsky knew this team wouldn't have stayed in contention without the addition of Guardado. Weathers did alright in the beginning till he imploded at midseason. Coffey showed he didn't have the mental makeup for the job. While the Nats deal shored up middle relief it was the acquisition of Guardado that stablized the bullpen.

The other areas of the Reds can be addressed by free agency. Acquiring an established closer has to be done via trade. And if you want a good one, you better pony up especially when it is a seller's market.

I stand by what I say....the Reds won't win a thing without a bonafide closer.

I agree, although I don't think the Reds need an all-star closer. Just someone solid. Even Guardado, who had a bad year before the trade and obviously had arm issues, solidified the pen. Even Weathers in 2005, while a marginal "closer" at best, was adequate that year.

In the closer spot, experience is key. Guys like Schoenweis and Weathers, not career closers, did ok when put in that spot. I'd like to see a better, more bona fide closer than those two; but it doesn't have to be a $10 million pitcher.

However, I am confident that the Reds won't succeed next year if they have the current starting staff. They must add a 200 inning starter to go with Arroyo and Harang. They cannot have 3 out of every 5 games started by the Milton, Lohse, Claussen, EZ gang. If it were my call, this would be where I would put the team's resources.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:39 PM
Closer is a huge need and very important. But no one wants to overpay to get one. It is one of the most volatile positions in the sport. You have to be smart in trying to fill that hole. But I agree with Krusty that this is a huge need with the Reds.

OK, all you fake trade people ... Go out and find me a match -- a team that needs a hitter like Dunn that has a pitcher (starter or reliever) and a position player they'd be willing to move. Let's stay away from the expensive (Tejada) and unrealistic (A-Rod).

Adam Dunn to the Dodgers for Of Andre Either and RHP John Broxton. Reds might need to add another player to the deal.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:40 PM
and that proves what?

Everyone is entitled to their opinion but who is to say what opinion is right?

NJReds
11-14-2006, 05:41 PM
OK, all you fake trade people ... Go out and find me a match -- a team that needs a hitter like Dunn that has a pitcher (starter or reliever) and a position player they'd be willing to move. Let's stay away from the expensive (Tejada) and unrealistic (A-Rod).

I'm not a big "fake trade" guy, but how about to the Angels for Scot Shields, Howie Kendrick and Reggie Willits.

Patrick Bateman
11-14-2006, 05:41 PM
OK, all you fake trade people ... Go out and find me a match -- a team that needs a hitter like Dunn that has a pitcher (starter or reliever) and a position player they'd be willing to move. Let's stay away from the expensive (Tejada) and unrealistic (A-Rod).

That's an impossible task. No one here has a clue as to what teams would be willing to move what players.

We can only go as far as determining a fair market for Dunn, but it's very hard to judge how each team values their own players.

TRF
11-14-2006, 05:42 PM
Krisky on the Reds roster.

Trade one of the best offensive SS in the NL for weak hitting just as bad fielding SS... and starting RF for an injured reliever, an unproven reliever, a AAAA utility infielder and a ML pitcher already operated on by Doc Hollywood.... Check.

Sign aging 1B to two year extension. Check

Sign Juan freaking Castro to two year extension. Check (A move I like if he is made into a coach by the end of ST)

Carry three catchers for a season. Check

Sign as many ex-Twins as humanly possible. Check

Joe Mays. Check


Gee what's left to do? Oh yeah! Eliminate the last offensive threat on the team not named Encarnacion. Goodbye Dunn, Hello Bubba Crosby.

wretch.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:43 PM
Here is what Wayne K. should do:

Sign Eric Gagne to a one-year deal with a club option for a second year. Load the first year with incentives and if he reaches all the incentives he makes between 8-10 million. This way the Reds protect themselves and if he doesn't pan out, then you don't pick up the option for 2008.

Handofdeath
11-14-2006, 05:46 PM
no kidding. hell, the Tigers went to the WS with Doug Jones as their closer. A guy the Reds basically picked up and tossed back to the scrap pile.

You make it sound as if he wasn't effective for the Reds. 3.79 ERA in 57 innings was pretty damn good and then they traded him to the Phillies. It was a typical dumb O'Brien trade but the Reds didn't toss him back to the scrap pile.

Rojo
11-14-2006, 05:47 PM
I'm with Krusty, closer first. You pick up a closer and you improve 5 other pitchers in the pen.

Patrick Bateman
11-14-2006, 05:48 PM
You make it sound as if he wasn't effective for the Reds. 3.79 ERA in 57 innings was pretty damn good and then they traded him to the Phillies. It was a typical dumb O'Brien trade but the Reds didn't toss him back to the scrap pile.

He was a FA to be. We were going to lose him as a FA anyways. Not exactly a huge loss. DanO didn't get a whole lot for him, but there wasn't much of a market during that particular trading deadline.

pedro
11-14-2006, 05:48 PM
You make it sound as if he wasn't effective for the Reds. 3.79 ERA in 57 innings was pretty damn good and then they traded him to the Phillies. It was a typical dumb O'Brien trade but the Reds didn't toss him back to the scrap pile.



The point isn't that Jones is bad. It's that no one has ever had to use a major piece of their roster to acquire him.

RedsManRick
11-14-2006, 05:50 PM
Those veterans got you to the World Series. You saw the inexperince in Zumaya in the playoffs. Adam Wainwright was a godsend for the Cards but the Reds tried that at midseason with Coffey and he was a bust as a closer. The Blue Jays broke the bank to sign B.J. Ryan to be their closer and he produced. The Phillies signed Flash Gordon and the Mets signed Billy Wagner. Established closers.

With the game on the line in the ninth inning, last thing we need is some inexperienced reliever coming in and watching victory implode right before our eyes.

Good thing BJ Ryan and Tom Gordon carried their respective teams' to the playoffs. Could the Reds use a closer? Sure. Should it be a top priority over adding another bat or solid starter. No freaking way.

RedsManRick
11-14-2006, 05:51 PM
Look at Jones' saves in 05-06 and you'll see they are among the best in baseball. Go back alittle further and look at his first stint with the Tigers and the saves he racked up. The guy must be doing something right.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2924

Yup, he's pitching like an average reliever in save situations and getting plenty of opportunities to do so. Give David Weathers 40 save opportunities and he'll give you 30-35 saves.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:51 PM
Krisky on the Reds roster.

Trade one of the best offensive SS in the NL for weak hitting just as bad fielding SS... and starting RF for an injured reliever, an unproven reliever, a AAAA utility infielder and a ML pitcher already operated on by Doc Hollywood.... Check.

Sign aging 1B to two year extension. Check

Sign Juan freaking Castro to two year extension. Check (A move I like if he is made into a coach by the end of ST)

Carry three catchers for a season. Check

Sign as many ex-Twins as humanly possible. Check

Joe Mays. Check


Gee what's left to do? Oh yeah! Eliminate the last offensive threat on the team not named Encarnacion. Goodbye Dunn, Hello Bubba Crosby.

wretch.

If the Reds don't make the trade with the Nats, most likely the Reds would have moved Lopez to second with Phillips going to short. Question is would Lopez out-priced himself even as a second baseman?

Hatteberg put up similar numbers to Casey at a lower price and despite his age. And we all know Hatteberg is a one year bridge before Joey Votto takes over.

Krivsky is big on defense. Castro provides infield insurance especially late in the game as a defensive replacement for Encarncion. Which don't be surprise to see free agent Alex Gonzalez signed as the shortstop despite his woeful offensive numbers.

If you can move LaRue's contract (thanks to O'Brien), let us know then we'll have you raise the Titanic.

Joe Mays didn't cost the Reds nothing. But if Krivisky can acquire either Joe Nathan or Johan Santana, then who is complaining about ex-Twins. We saw even Bowden still loves the Reds.

Bubba Crosby? How about Triple A fodder or a caddy for Junior if Denorifa is packaged in a deal?

dabvu2498
11-14-2006, 05:51 PM
It seems that we keep forgetting that hole in the middle of the infield too... what's that called???

Oh yeah... shortstop. (Or 2nd base if Phillips is the answer at SS).

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:55 PM
Good thing BJ Ryan and Tom Gordon carried their respective teams' to the playoffs. Could the Reds use a closer? Sure. Should it be a top priority over adding another bat or solid starter. No freaking way.

Adding another bat or solid starter can be done via free agency. The only way you get a closer is through the trade market this year. If closer isn't a priority to you, that's fine but alot of games are won and lost in the ninth inning.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 05:56 PM
It seems that we keep forgetting that hole in the middle of the infield too... what's that called???

Oh yeah... shortstop. (Or 2nd base if Phillips is the answer at SS).

Cash will bring in shortstop Alex Gonzalez or second basemen Adam Kennedy and Belliard.

TRF
11-14-2006, 06:01 PM
If the Reds don't make the trade with the Nats, most likely the Reds would have moved Lopez to second with Phillips going to short. Question is would Lopez out-priced himself even as a second baseman?

Hatteberg put up similar numbers to Casey at a lower price and despite his age. And we all know Hatteberg is a one year bridge before Joey Votto takes over.

Krivsky is big on defense. Castro provides infield insurance especially late in the game as a defensive replacement for Encarncion. Which don't be surprise to see free agent Alex Gonzalez signed as the shortstop despite his woeful offensive numbers.

If you can move LaRue's contract (thanks to O'Brien), let us know then we'll have you raise the Titanic.

Joe Mays didn't cost the Reds nothing. But if Krivisky can acquire either Joe Nathan or Johan Santana, then who is complaining about ex-Twins. We saw even Bowden still loves the Reds.

Bubba Crosby? How about Triple A fodder or a caddy for Junior if Denorifa is packaged in a deal?

Lopez would not have priced himself out of Cincinnati for a while. Mebbe three years. plenty of time to find a replacement, which Krivsky did not do.

Dunn was supposed to be at 1B. He worked out there in ST. He's a bad defender in LF, but with a full season at 1B, he could have been league average with his height. It isn't a comparison of Casey and Hatte, it's Dunn vs. Hatte.

Castro's range is gone. He's sure handed at what he gets to. He just doesn't get to much. But he's a good teacher from all accounts, and is bi-lingual. Had Lopez stayed I imagine Castro could have been a very good influence and taught him 2B.

I'd actually prefer to keep LaRue over Ross. LaRue is three times the catcher Ross is defensively.

Joe Mays cost the Reds wins. please never forget that.

As for Bubba Crosby, Hatte was supposed to be a bench player when signed too. So was Aurilia.

pedro
11-14-2006, 06:02 PM
adam kennedy?

kill me now.

M2
11-14-2006, 06:02 PM
If Krivsky trades Dunn, it will be the deal that either makes or breaks his career.

Kc61
11-14-2006, 06:04 PM
With all of their ills, I think the number one thing the Reds must do is add to the rotation. Just look at the numbers for guys like Milton last year. You simply cannot win with so many ineffective innings.

Starting pitchers pitch most of a team's innings. If you have bad ones, then over the course of the season it becomes virtually impossible for an offense to keep up. In addition, good starters are hard to come by; so finding and signing good ones becomes all the more important.

In 2006, Milton threw 152 inning with a 5.19. EZ threw 104 innings with a 5.37. Claussen threw 67 innings with a 6.19. That adds up to 333 innings (59 starts) with a combined ERA in the neighborhood of 5.50. You cannot win with that.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 06:08 PM
adam kennedy?

kill me now.

And what is so bad about a lifetime .280 hitter that is solid both offensively and defensively?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4157

Roy Tucker
11-14-2006, 06:09 PM
If the Reds can trade Dunn for some good starting pitching and the Reds can sign a big FA OF bat, I'd consider that good progress.

But those are some awfully big if's frought with danger and pitfalls. Krivsky has shown he has the propensity to make very good and very bad trades. Will we get Good Wayne or Bad Wayne on a trade?

And like many others have mentioned, Dunn's market value is at its absolute nadir right now. This is the worst time to be trading him. His August-Sept. slump was a dagger to his perceived worth.

Patrick Bateman
11-14-2006, 06:12 PM
And what is so bad about a lifetime .280 hitter that is solid both offensively and defensively?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4157

He's decent enough defensively, but he's been a very poor hitter the last two seasons.

Kc61
11-14-2006, 06:12 PM
If the Reds can trade Dunn for some good starting pitching and the Reds can sign a big FA OF bat, I'd consider that good progress.

But those are some awfully big if's frought with danger and pitfalls. Krivsky has shown he has the propensity to make very good and very bad trades.

And like many others have mentioned, Dunn's market value is at its absolute nadir right now. This is the worst time to be trading him. His August-Sept. slump was a dagger to his perceived worth.


You are right. That's why I think the key is free agents. The Reds just don't have the trade bait right now, except for very young, excellent talent.

They need to sign a Lily or a Zito or another good starter. Even if it costs a lot. This is where the money needs to go. If you don't like those two choices, I'm sure there is somebody else. It doesn't have to be Koufax. Just a real major league starter who can throw innings at around 3.50.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 06:13 PM
The only problem is so many teams have cash to spend that teams will overpay even for marginal free agents.

westofyou
11-14-2006, 06:14 PM
And what is so bad about a lifetime .280 hitter that is solid both offensively and defensively?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4157

.731 OPS in a hitting era is a start.

Kc61
11-14-2006, 06:16 PM
The only problem is so many teams have cash to spend that teams will overpay even for marginal free agents.

If you operate like a cheap outfit, it will show on the field. The Reds will have to overpay for starting pitching. That's fine. Look at the Red Sox. They just spent a fortune to get the rights to a Japanese pitcher. This is where the good teams spend.

The key is making the right choices. But if this team wants to compete they will have to spend for starting pitching. Let them save in other departments.

pedro
11-14-2006, 06:20 PM
And what is so bad about a lifetime .280 hitter that is solid both offensively and defensively?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4157

he's got no range and no power and doesn;'t get on base much. he's ok and all, but he's sure the the answer to any of the reds problems.

M2
11-14-2006, 06:20 PM
You are right. That's why I think the key is free agents. The Reds just don't have the trade bait right now, except for very young, excellent talent.

They need to sign a Lily or a Zito or another good starter. Even if it costs a lot. This is where the money needs to go. If you don't like those two choices, I'm sure there is somebody else. It doesn't have to be Koufax. Just a real major league starter who can throw innings at around 3.50.

It's a horrible free agent market though and the prices are likely to be insane. There's likely to be a robust trade market this winter. A guy like Ryan Freel could be highly coveted, especially at his current price. The Reds probably aren't going to land any big names, but what they can do is identify some distressed items, undervalued players and guys coming off uncharacteristic slumps and look to build a team through multiple moves.

Krusty
11-14-2006, 06:27 PM
"Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top. It's a series of transactions that help you get there."

Taken from Wayne K's mouth. Don't expect big free agent signing or blockbuster trades. And while signing the likes of Gonzalez, Kennedy, Speier, Eaton, Padilla and Nixon might not wow us, if it shores up the defense, rotation, bullpen and bolsters the offense, then that will help the club in the longhaul.

Kc61
11-14-2006, 06:28 PM
It's a horrible free agent market though and the prices are likely to be insane. There's likely to be a robust trade market this winter. A guy like Ryan Freel could be highly coveted, especially at his current price. The Reds probably aren't going to land any big names, but what they can do is identify some distressed items, undervalued players and guys coming off uncharacteristic slumps and look to build a team through multiple moves.

The prices for starting pitching seem insane whether by trade or free agent. My only point is that the Reds have to be players in that arena. Going the distressed route is risky -- most often the players you acquire stay distressed -- but with good scouting you can sometimes succeed that way.
I'd put Arroyo in that category.

If the Reds are going to spend for one player, it's a starter to go with Arroyo/Harang that I would want.

Kc61
11-14-2006, 06:30 PM
"Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top. It's a series of transactions that help you get there."

Taken from Wayne K's mouth. Don't expect big free agent signing or blockbuster trades. And while signing the likes of Gonzalez, Kennedy, Speier, Eaton, Padilla and Nixon might not wow us, if it shores up the defense, rotation, bullpen and bolsters the offense, then that will help the club in the longhaul.

Eaton, Padilla and Speier would be a big upgrade. We should be so lucky.

RedLegSuperStar
11-14-2006, 06:34 PM
what about a deal with Texas for Hank Blalock and Danks for Dunn?

TRF
11-14-2006, 06:47 PM
Krusty the man made 1 good trade, 1 great waiver wire pickup and acquired David Ross for spare change. And had that been all he did, his first season would have been spectacular.

But he also made "the trade", signed Joe freaking Mays, Traded a top prospect for Kyle Lohse, has done nothing for the defense up the middle, and acquired bad pitcher after bad pitcher in a series of move that would have made JimBo's head spin.

Ryan Franklin?

And then he extends the contract of the manager that insisted on actually pitching RYAN FRANKLIN in close games.

He's a mind boggling bad GM that got lucky with Arroyo in that he was in the right place at the right time. And don't think for a minute that Theo didn't know that WMP was originally a Yankee farmhand. When he has his monster season next year (yes, I am calling it right now. He learned how to hit RH's) that's going to be a lot to talk about in Boston.

Yes, I said Krivsky is a bad GM. He's anti DanO to the extreme. Can we get some middle ground here? He overvalues BA, and places too much emphasis on K's, will not manage his roster by telling his CF his time there is done, and his LF that he's brutal in the OF, and that his size screams 1B. He trades players with offensive upside to acquire players with good to great defensive skills, but doesn't actually get that in return. For a guy that values defense, he went and got Castro, Ross and Clayton. Golden Hands/Leaden feet, A cardboard silhouette behind the plate, and... there aren't the words to describe Clayton. Other than Arroyo, he acquired how many good pitchers? Scott Schoeneweis? Maybe? He discarded Yan who was at least producing somewhat, and clung to Franklin who was killing the Reds.

The SP he acquired not named arroyo went a combined 3-7 with an era north of 6! throw in 6 starts from the mighty Michahlek and it gets even worse.

I have zero faith in his ability to field a decent team, evaluate talent or hire coaches. Firing Chambliss was a crime in and of itself.

M2
11-14-2006, 06:53 PM
The prices for starting pitching seem insane whether by trade or free agent. My only point is that the Reds have to be players in that arena. Going the distressed route is risky -- most often the players you acquire stay distressed -- but with good scouting you can sometimes succeed that way.
I'd put Arroyo in that category.

If the Reds are going to spend for one player, it's a starter to go with Arroyo/Harang that I would want.

Me too.

harangatang
11-14-2006, 06:53 PM
The Cards and Tigers certainly went no-where without a big name closer this year. Or are you gonna tell me that Jason Isringhausen (3.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 58 IP) and Todd Jones (3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 IP) were the difference makers. Could we use a reliable closer? Sure, but get me more IP of better quality, I don't care where. A proven, "bonafide" closer is one of the least cost effective ways to get it.I thought Troy Percival was supposed to be Detroit's closer. ;)

Cedric
11-14-2006, 06:54 PM
Zach Ward is nowhere near a top prospect.

pedro
11-14-2006, 06:55 PM
Zach Ward is nowhere near a top prospect.

no kidding. the chances that he'll ever have the major league career that Lohse has had, good or bad, are very slim.

Strikes Out Looking
11-14-2006, 06:56 PM
I've enjoyed this thread. Some of my thoughts:

1. As I've said for a while, you need openers before you worry about closers. Four guys who can toss 200 innings at a sub 4 era will make it much easier to find a closer--even out of what the Reds have in the cupboard. The bp won't be worn out by late May and would be ok. Two more starters and this team is competitive if...
2. They improve the offense. Maybe not with a big bopper but with a couple of hitters that manage to --once in awhile-- get on base or drive in runs or hit the rookie making his first start against the Reds. This seemed to be missing this past season. Of course..
3. They could also improve the defense, especially up the middle.

That being said and back to the thread title, I don't trade Dunn unless the deal knocks me dead. A number 1 pitcher (Oswalt), maybe Tejada and one of the O's hot shot prospects. Other than that, probably not.

oneupper
11-14-2006, 07:00 PM
Did she buy it on sale? :D

Yeah. It's not like they move a lot of those in Florida.

However, I fully expect to wear it to a REDS/MARLINS game next year.

Reasoning?

1) Krivsky can't afford another Kearns/Lopez for Maj/Bray deal, even if he may think it's a good one.
He lost A LOT of political capital with that trade (regardless of whether it was good or bad).

2) A Dunn trade would have to bring a very recognizable name back. And there isn't that much out there.

3) Krivsky may not value Dunn, but the rest of the market isn't all that hot for him either.

4) Dunn isn't cheap any more. (I'm not sayin' he isn't worth it...just that there isn't a much of a performance discount).

I don't think it's going to happen.

schroomytunes
11-14-2006, 07:01 PM
If I'm Krivsky Im calling the Rangers GM and Im offering him this deal.

Reds Trade: Adam Dunn and Elizardo Ramirez

Rangers Trade: Juaquin Arias-22yr old SS John Danks 21yr old LHSP(AAA)
and Thomas Diamond 23year old RHSP (AA)

Thoughts?

Falls City Beer
11-14-2006, 07:05 PM
I think Dunn has several monster seasons left in him and to trade him now would be to trade him at pennies on the dollar.

neal1017
11-14-2006, 07:15 PM
When you have as many holes to fill as the Reds do then every one should be available. This winter will go along way in telling how good our gm is.

vaticanplum
11-14-2006, 07:19 PM
Re: the closer thing. I don't think closer as a position is overrated per se; I have too many games seared in my memory that have been made or destroyed by a closer. But, if I may do something as nitpicky as prioritize MIPs (most important positions), closer comes last. If this makes any sense, I believe that a good closer is most important on an already good team. I think there are probably a lot of detailed, beyond-me reasons for this, but in the most simplistic terms, I guess it's because he's on the field for such a short time, so late, often at closer, crucial times. You've got a good team that keeps you in important games, he saves you. You've got a team filled with holes in innings 1-7 and your closer not only will not make a difference, but he'll rarely see the light of day.

That's why I don't advoate a closer being a top priority in trading Dunn. It's simply not enough in return. I don't care how good your closer is, a man who pitches 1-2 innings a few times a week just doesn't equate to your 155-game-a-year offensive powerhouse. I honestly don't know that I'd take Mariano Rivera for Dunn, even five-years-ago Mo, especially not with the rest of the Reds in the shape they're in right now. Rivera wouldn't have been the closer he's been had he not been given the chance; he was given the chance because he played for an already great team. And tellingly, to back me up on the playing time and value thing, Rivera makes about what Dunn does, actually.

You trade Dunn for a great closer and some other pickups, and you still have your biggest hole in the starting pitching and a newly huge offensive crater to boot. It doesn't save this team; I don't think it even improves it at all.

I believe that Dunn warrants a #1 or a very strong #2 starting pitcher. If they trade him for anything but that, I will not follow the Reds anymore.

dunner13
11-14-2006, 07:23 PM
I would be pretty excited about a Dunn for Jake Westbrook trade. Indians are also really looking for some bullpen help so maybe we could throw in coffey for Brad Snyder or Trevor Crowe. To outfield prospects, crowe is pretty highly rated, seems to be more of a leadoff hitter, gets on base, Centerfielder, Snyder much more of a power hitter but he seems to have struggled recently.

As far as a closer just give billy bray the job. I think right now he would be at least an average closer and could develop into a top one. Hes got the stuff so give him the job at the start of spring training and lets see what he does with it.

Patrick Bateman
11-14-2006, 07:27 PM
I would be pretty excited about a Dunn for Jake Westbrook trade. Indians are also really looking for some bullpen help so maybe we could throw in coffey for Brad Snyder or Trevor Crowe. To outfield prospects, crowe is pretty highly rated, seems to be more of a leadoff hitter, gets on base, Centerfielder, Snyder much more of a power hitter but he seems to have struggled recently.



That would be seriously underselling Dunn.

Westbrook is solid, but isn't anything more than a 4.00 ERA pitcher. Basically a number 3. If Dunn is traded, the Reds need much more than that for him.

corkedbat
11-14-2006, 07:52 PM
I'm dreading this off season for several reasons.

1) The Free Agent availabilities seriously suck - I'm afraid that what little value there is out there will be seriously over-priced

2) The Reds have precious little in the way of trading chips with any value and because of the depressed FA market, clubs will be demanding ridiculous returns

3) Even the one commodity they do have (Dunn) is at his all-time low

4) I believe that Krivs and BCast are going to feel a strong need to make something happen and that could mean over-paying for mediocre FAs, giving away the farm in trades and dealing Dunn for less than his value just to make "something" happen

If the Reds make it through the Winter without making me seriously ill, I will be greatly surprised. <sigh> :bang:

jmac
11-14-2006, 08:04 PM
That would be seriously underselling Dunn.

Westbrook is solid, but isn't anything more than a 4.00 ERA pitcher. Basically a number 3. If Dunn is traded, the Reds need much more than that for him.

i havent got to read this whole thread but was thinking similar today.
what the reds "need" and would get is 2 different things.
I just dont know how many teams would trade a #1 or 2 for dunn without several others thrown in.i am not a dunn basher,only looking at it from the "other" side.
here is what i was actually thinking today so lets see the response.
lets pretend you are the gm of the reds.your rotation consists of harang, arroyo,and NL rookie of the year homer bailey(13-6 3.42 era).
you need an impact bat and the rangers have this guy named adam dunn.
(same stats with texas). their gm calls you up and says i will trade you straight up adam dunn for aron harang......would you as a reds gm do it.
me....no.
i like dunn but i dont think he without some prized prospects would get a bonderman or harden type pitcher.
today listening to wlw on way home , burbank said (in jest)let's offer zona dunn for webb.
i just dont think dunn without others will get a top tier.
again....would you trade harang for dunn if he played for another team ?
not bashing just questioning...

Tom Servo
11-14-2006, 08:10 PM
Count me in on the group who doesn't support trading Dunn. His value is super low, and he may bounce back with a good 07. If he does, terrific. If he doesn't, pick up his option and trade him then. Either way, dealing Dunn at this point probably won't help us unless Wayne can get some sort of king's ransom for him.

jmac
11-14-2006, 08:15 PM
I think Dunn has several monster seasons left in him and to trade him now would be to trade him at pennies on the dollar.

just curious on what is exactly you classify as "monster season"?
like 40/100/100bb or 50/120/100bb's ??
i guess i am asking if you think we can look for greater #'s from adam or about the same.

RedLegSuperStar
11-14-2006, 08:29 PM
I would be pretty excited about a Dunn for Jake Westbrook trade. Indians are also really looking for some bullpen help so maybe we could throw in coffey for Brad Snyder or Trevor Crowe.

If the Reds need bullpen help why deal Coffey? Not saying Coffey wouldn't be a good trading chip to get better out of any deal. What we should do is try to re-sign Scott Schoenewies, move Claussen to the pen, and sign a #3 type pitcher or deal Dunn for a pitcher and sign/trade for OF.. perferably one with pop and defense.

Redmachine2003
11-14-2006, 08:32 PM
Count me in on the group who doesn't support trading Dunn. His value is super low, and he may bounce back with a good 07. If he does, terrific. If he doesn't, pick up his option and trade him then. Either way, dealing Dunn at this point probably won't help us unless Wayne can get some sort of king's ransom for him.

I don't know if Dunn's value will go any higher. He has a 10 mil contract next year and I believe if would go higher if he is traded the option will be voided and he becomes a freeagent. I also think that if the right trade is made the gains will out way the loss.

Falls City Beer
11-14-2006, 08:36 PM
just curious on what is exactly you classify as "monster season"?
like 40/100/100bb or 50/120/100bb's ??
i guess i am asking if you think we can look for greater #'s from adam or about the same.

All I know is that Adam Dunn has a rare skill set, and that ages 27-29 (maybe 30) tend to be peak offensive seasons in most cases.

RedsManRick
11-14-2006, 08:37 PM
Ronny Cedeno, 2006: .245/.271/.339
Neifi Perez, 2006: .243/.260/.316

Hmm....

Handofdeath
11-14-2006, 09:11 PM
All I know is that Adam Dunn has a rare skill set, and that ages 27-29 (maybe 30) tend to be peak offensive seasons in most cases.

Yes, they do tend to be but I would hope that Dunn would be building up to that peak. You don't reach the top of the mountain by going halfway up and then going back down half way.

Rojo
11-14-2006, 09:15 PM
Giants are down on Benitez, can afford contracts, need to fill holes and are rumored to be looking at Baez or Borowski as a closer. See if they'd bite on Milton or LaRue or both.

westofyou
11-14-2006, 09:18 PM
Yes, they do tend to be but I would hope that Dunn would be building up to that peak. You don't reach the top of the mountain by going halfway up and then going back down half way.

Yet Frank Howard did just that.

Handofdeath
11-14-2006, 09:29 PM
Yet Frank Howard did just that.

Yes but at 31 not 27. I look at his stats and something doesn't smell right.

flyer85
11-14-2006, 09:30 PM
I have a bad feeling about this off-season, for some reason I keep thinking WK will have me wishing for the inactivity defined by DanO.

westofyou
11-14-2006, 09:36 PM
Yes but at 31 not 27. I look at his stats and something doesn't smell right.

Eh? look at his OPS dip in 64 and again in 66, he was affected by swings in his BA, also note he didn't become a monster until he *shudder* learned to walk more then 50 odd times a year.


FRANK HOWARD

GIVEN NAME: Frank Oliver Howard
BORN: 8/8/1936 Columbus, Ohio
BAT: R THROW: R HEIGHT: 6'7" WEIGHT: 255 MLB DEBUT: 9/10/1958
CAREER GAMES BY POSITION: 1B: 334 LF: 923 RF: 530 DH: 76

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1958 Dodgers 21 8 29 3 7 1 0 1 3.45 2 1 11 0 0 .241 .379 .267 .646
1959 Dodgers 22 9 21 2 3 0 1 1 4.76 6 2 9 0 0 .143 .381 .217 .598
1960 Dodgers 23 117 448 54 120 15 2 23 5.13 77 32 108 0 1 .268 .464 .320 .784
1961 Dodgers 24 92 267 36 79 10 2 15 5.62 45 21 50 0 1 .296 .517 .347 .864
1962 Dodgers 25 141 493 80 146 25 6 31 6.29 119 39 108 1 0 .296 .560 .346 .906
1963 Dodgers 26 123 417 58 114 16 1 28 6.71 64 33 116 1 2 .273 .518 .330 .848
1964 Dodgers 27 134 433 60 98 13 2 24 5.54 69 51 113 1 0 .226 .432 .303 .735
1965 Senators 28 149 516 53 149 22 6 21 4.07 84 55 112 0 0 .289 .477 .358 .835
1966 Senators 29 146 493 52 137 19 4 18 3.65 71 53 104 1 1 .278 .442 .348 .790
1967 Senators 30 149 519 71 133 20 2 36 6.94 89 60 155 0 1 .256 .511 .338 .849
1968 Senators 31 158 598 79 164 28 3 44 7.36 106 54 141 0 0 .274 .552 .338 .890
1969 Senators 32 161 592 111 175 17 2 48 8.11 111 102 96 1 0 .296 .574 .402 .976
1970 Senators 33 161 566 90 160 15 1 44 7.77 126 132 125 1 2 .283 .546 .416 .962
1971 Senators 34 153 549 60 153 25 2 26 4.74 83 77 121 1 0 .279 .474 .367 .840
1972 Rangers 35 95 287 28 70 9 0 9 3.14 31 42 55 1 0 .244 .369 .341 .711
Tigers 35 14 33 1 8 1 0 1 3.03 7 4 8 0 0 .242 .364 .324 .688
TOTALS 109 320 29 78 10 0 10 3.13 38 46 63 1 0 .244 .369 .340 .708
1973 Tigers 36 85 227 26 58 9 1 12 5.29 29 24 28 0 1 .256 .463 .327 .789
TOTALS 1895 6488 864 1774 245 35 382 5.89 1119 782 1460 8 9 .273 .499 .352 .851
LG AVERAGE 6300 769 1604 247 45 159 2.52 717 619 961 90 55 .255 .384 .323 .707
POS AVERAGE 6423 853 1714 264 50 217 3.38 862 666 1042 92 53 .267 .425 .338 .763

Handofdeath
11-14-2006, 09:37 PM
I have a bad feeling about this off-season, for some reason I keep thinking WK will have me wishing for the inactivity defined by DanO.

Let me ask this. If the Reds trade Dunn for say 2 good prospects would that be a good deal? I say yes. The Reds can go for broke next year but the farm system is depleted. Even if they do well, it could wind up being a one year wonder type deal. Then you still have no farm system and Dunn, the only decent bargaining chip besides Votto, is gone because the Reds are not going to pay him 13 mil.

flyer85
11-14-2006, 09:42 PM
Let me ask this. If the Reds trade Dunn for say 2 good prospects would that be a good deal? I say yes. The Reds can go for broke next year but the farm system is depleted. Even if they do well, it could wind up being a one year wonder type deal. Then you still have no farm system and Dunn, the only decent bargaining chip besides Votto, is gone because the Reds are not going to pay him 13 mil.when this off-season is finished paying Dunn $10.5m in 2007 will look like a bargain.

Salary is not the Reds problem, it is a severe lack of talent in every area and from top to bottom in the entire organization.

Handofdeath
11-14-2006, 09:44 PM
when this off-season is finished paying Dunn $10.5m in 2007 will look like a bargain.

Salary is not the Reds problem, it is a severe lack of talent in every area and from top to bottom in the entire organization.

I totally agree about the Reds problems. But 2007 better be Dunn's best season ever or there won't be a 2008 with the Reds.

flyer85
11-14-2006, 09:46 PM
I totally agree about the Reds problems. But 2007 better be Dunn's best season ever or there won't be a 2008 with the Reds.the salaries are going to go completely nutty this off-season(it has already started). If the Reds don't trade Dunn they will pick up the option for 2008, no doubt about it.

Heath
11-14-2006, 09:59 PM
Dunn for Cliff Lee.

Start and add from there.....

(But, I'm not sold on trading Dunn at all)

flyer85
11-14-2006, 10:01 PM
Dunn for Cliff Lee.

Start and add from there.I'd rather go the cheap route for starters and see what it would take for Guthrie and Davis.

Lee is an flyball pitcher who benefits from Jacobs field, he would be a poor fit for GABP.

GAC
11-14-2006, 10:15 PM
What I don't get about Krivsky supposedly hating Dunn is the fact that he signed Dunn to a 2 year contract with an option for a 3rd.

Where do you (or anyone) get the idea that Krivsky HATES Dunn? One of his first orders of business was to sign Adam, and also gave him high praise when doing so. But any GM who is trying to improve his team has to look at what trading tools he has and see what's out there. Nothing should be off the table when it comes to this organization.

I'm not one who advocates trading Adam Dunn, but it all comes down to what other teams are interested, and what they have to offer in return, and will it go towards improving this team.

edabbs44
11-14-2006, 10:20 PM
All I know is that Adam Dunn has a rare skill set, and that ages 27-29 (maybe 30) tend to be peak offensive seasons in most cases.

Not when your stats have been declining for the past 3 seasons. Some on this thread say that they shouldn't deal Dunn b/c his value is at an all-time low. What if he hasn't hit the low yet? And then he becomes untradeable?

dunner13
11-14-2006, 10:23 PM
What really bothers me is last july we probably could have added jake westbrook for kearns. Then traded lopez for bullpen help if we wanted to and come out alot better then we did with majew and bray. Its a tough decesion to trade dunn because if we do we basically have no offense. If the right deal comes along then do it, the right deal would have to include a starting pitcher and a young OF who can play right now. Not sure if we will get that but to me thats what it would take.

westofyou
11-14-2006, 10:30 PM
Not when your stats have been declining for the past 3 seasons.

That's 2 season, you guy scan keep saying 3 but it's still only 2, plus that drop from .957 to .926 is a laugh, especially when you consider it's the 10th best Reds OPS by a qualifier in the past 21 years


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1986-2006
OPS YEAR OPS
1 Kevin Mitchell 1994 1.110
2 Eric Davis 1987 .991
3 Barry Larkin 1996 .977
4 Reggie Sanders 1995 .975
5 Adam Dunn 2004 .956
6 Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 .946
7 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 .942
8 Ron Gant 1995 .940
9 Sean Casey 1999 .938
10 Adam Dunn 2005 .927

edabbs44
11-14-2006, 10:40 PM
That's 2 season, you guy scan keep saying 3 but it's still only 2, plus that drop from .957 to .926 is a laugh, especially when you consider it's the 10th best Reds OPS by a qualifier in the past 21 years


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1986-2006
OPS YEAR OPS
1 Kevin Mitchell 1994 1.110
2 Eric Davis 1987 .991
3 Barry Larkin 1996 .977
4 Reggie Sanders 1995 .975
5 Adam Dunn 2004 .956
6 Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 .946
7 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 .942
8 Ron Gant 1995 .940
9 Sean Casey 1999 .938
10 Adam Dunn 2005 .927

I stand corrected...2 years of decline. But a drop in 2 years from an OPS of .956 to .855 wouldn't really bring the buyers out in droves, IMO.

flyer85
11-14-2006, 10:42 PM
I stand corrected...2 years of decline. But a drop in 2 years from an OPS of .956 to .855 wouldn't really bring the buyers out in droves, IMO.... but one career year unlikely to be repeated sure does.

Highlifeman21
11-14-2006, 11:04 PM
If Krivsky trades Dunn, it will be the deal that either makes or breaks his career.

For both of them, Krivsky and Dunn.

harangatang
11-14-2006, 11:15 PM
Where do you (or anyone) get the idea that Krivsky HATES Dunn?



"Krivsky spent a lot of years in Minnesota, where the Twins stressed pitching and defense, and Dunn doesn't fit that philosophy."

Maybe the word "hate" is the wrong word to use but clearly the article that this topic was started on says Dunn doesn't fit into the rest of the philosophy of Krivsky.



One of the his first orders of business was to sign Adam, and also gave him high praise when doing so.Maybe. Krivsky has shown he's not bashful when it comes to trades and if Dunn wasn't what Krivsky wanted I'm sure he wouldn't have signed him to a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year.


But any GM who is trying to improve his team has to look at what trading tools he has and see what's out there. Nothing should be off the table when it comes to this organization.

I'm not one who advocates trading Adam Dunn, but It all comes down to what other teams are interested, and what they have to offer in return, and will it go towards improving this team.

In my original post that you took one sentence from I stated the following:

Why would Krivsky sign Dunn last year and look to trade him this year? If it is to improve the team then that's fine but this article basically says the Reds want to trade Dunn because they don't like his style of play.Maybe I could've been a little more clear but the fact that only one sentence (and not the bolded one) was taken from my post, it turns out you're disagreeing with me on this point that we agree on.

mth123
11-14-2006, 11:24 PM
The Reds biggest need this offseason is closer.

Trade Dunn in a deal w/o a big bat coming back and it won't be anymore.

mth123
11-14-2006, 11:55 PM
It's a horrible free agent market though and the prices are likely to be insane. There's likely to be a robust trade market this winter. A guy like Ryan Freel could be highly coveted, especially at his current price. The Reds probably aren't going to land any big names, but what they can do is identify some distressed items, undervalued players and guys coming off uncharacteristic slumps and look to build a team through multiple moves.

Right on target IMO.

flyer85
11-15-2006, 12:48 AM
It's a horrible free agent market though and the prices are likely to be insane. There's likely to be a robust trade market this winter. A guy like Ryan Freel could be highly coveted, especially at his current price. The Reds probably aren't going to land any big names, but what they can do is identify some distressed items, undervalued players and guys coming off uncharacteristic slumps and look to build a team through multiple moves.Plus the reds have a younger cheaper replacement for Freel. I was disappointed the Reds didn't get Hairston but they need to look for players that don't have a place to play with their current team or are being undervalued.

mth123
11-15-2006, 07:31 AM
Four guys who can toss 200 innings at a sub 4 era will make it much easier to find a closer--even out of what the Reds have in the cupboard. The bp won't be worn out by late May and would be ok. Two more starters and this team is competitive if...


Last season there were exactly 19 Pitchers in baseball that meet this criteria. Only 42 pitchers threw 200 innings and 31 had an ERA less that 4.50. If you drop the criteria to 180 Innings you get 27 Pitchers with an ERA less than 4.00 and 47 with an ERA less than 4.50. There were 67 pitchers total that pitched at least 180 Innings.

With 30 teams in baseball the Reds had 2 of the exclusive 19. Even having 2 of the 47 isn't bad with 30 teams. The average is 1.56 per team. Every team has at least one rotation spot manned by the likes of a Milton or Ramirez or a Claussen. Many teams have 2 spots like that.

The Reds starting pitching is actually in good shape compared to much of the competition. I do think that one spot needs to be upgraded, but with Bailey on the way to potentially do that from within, wrecking the rest of the team to get a starter doesn't make sense. Most of what is on the market is no better than Milton, Ramirez or Claussen.

Of the 47 guys with at least 180 Innings and an ERA less than 4.50 the FA are: Schmidt, Zito, Pettite, Mussina, Padilla, Lilly, Suppan and Meche. How do we get one? Schmidt and Zito want to play out west and the NY teams are trying to lure them with major bucks the Reds can't match. Pettite will only play for the Yankees or Astros or retire. Mussina probably goes back to the Yanks. That leaves Padilla, Lilly, Meche and Suppan. Meche is a product of Seattle and even the pitching starved Mariners don't seem to want him back. Lilly could be Milton II in GABP (so could Zito by the way). Any team that gives what it will take to sign Suppan will be disappointed IMO. That leaves Padilla who is seeking 4 years at $40 Million. Some high profile contender is likely to give it and the Reds will need to top it substantially.

Low key trades for guys with upside is the way to go. I still think Ramirez can be a solid #4 or #5 if he is healthy and used sensibly. I guess if Bob C has money to burn and it won't stop the Reds from signing Harang and making it too tempting for Arroyo to leave then target Padilla (and we'll all complain that the Reds gave him 4 years at $12 Million/year cause that is what it will likely take to outbid a perenial contender.)

paulrichjr
11-15-2006, 10:22 AM
Last season there were exactly 19 Pitchers in baseball that meet this criteria. Only 42 pitchers threw 200 innings and 31 had an ERA less that 4.50. If you drop the criteria to 180 Innings you get 27 Pitchers with an ERA less than 4.00 and 47 with an ERA less than 4.50. There were 67 pitchers total that pitched at least 180 Innings.

With 30 teams in baseball the Reds had 2 of the exclusive 19. Even having 2 of the 47 isn't bad with 30 teams. The average is 1.56 per team. Every team has at least one rotation spot manned by the likes of a Milton or Ramirez or a Claussen. Many teams have 2 spots like that.

The Reds starting pitching is actually in good shape compared to much of the competition. I do think that one spot needs to be upgraded, but with Bailey on the way to potentially do that from within, wrecking the rest of the team to get a starter doesn't make sense. Most of what is on the market is no better than Milton, Ramirez or Claussen.

Exactly

I think some still think the Reds have tons of offense and no starting pitching. This was the Jimbo/Binderboy teams. The WayneK team has starting pitching and no offense and that got us to the same place we got to in the prior years - Home for the playoffs.

dfs
11-15-2006, 10:43 AM
I think some still think the Reds have tons of offense and no starting pitching. This was the Jimbo/Binderboy teams. The WayneK team has starting pitching and no offense and that got us to the same place we got to in the prior years - Home for the playoffs.

And relying on starting pitching makes us less injury insulated than Jimbo's team. Despite the Cy Young voting snubs, Harang and Arroyo pitched an extraordinary amount of innings next year. If one of those two guys goes down for...a third of the season, this team is really in trouble. As much as they may need to upgrade the rotation, the rest of the roster looks very, very thin right now.

You can talk about closers and starting pitching all you want, they need to address centerfield and shortstop.

Kc61
11-15-2006, 10:58 AM
A third solid starting pitching is a must. I agree that many teams don't have innings eaters like Harang and Arroyo. I agree that the Reds top two are fine, assuming they can keep it up.

But good teams don't have regular starters like Milton, EZ, and Claussen, who started about 60 games this year with a combined ERA around 5.50. We can speculate on Bailey, EZ (still young), Claussen (serious injury), Lohse (big question mark) for next year but IMO the Reds will not be a winning team with this group, and Milton, starting games and throwing a substantial percentage of the team's innings.

With one more solid guy, assuming he pans out, the Reds will at least have 3 solid starters in the 5 man rotation and can then use the best of the remaining lot to fill the last two spots. Hopefully they can come up with two reasonable starters from the current group.

M2
11-15-2006, 11:13 AM
The thing with the starting pitching is that there's only one kid on the farm who profiles as any sort of help within the next two years and he doesn't turn 21 until May.

If Harang or Arroyo get injured, if Bailey gets injured, has a set back or doesn't pan out, then the club is holding an empty bag. The CF resolution is as simple as putting Chris Denorfia in CF. Sure he won't be a superstar, but he'll probably be a perfectly fine player out there (rated best defensive OF by the managers in the IL this season).

The SS situation has a built-in default if Krivsky can't find a SS he likes. Brandon Phillips can play SS and the team can find a 2B (though, if rumors are to be believed, it sounds like Krivsky's aiming at the default rather than hunting for a SS).

Anyway, there is no default for the pitching. Either the Reds go out and find the arms they're going to need or the team can instead trot out the usual assortment of batting tees behind the small amount of quality currently on the roster.

RedsManRick
11-15-2006, 11:37 AM
Are Medlock, Guevera, Dumtrait, Shafer all 2+ years away? I know most of those guys aren't high ceiling types, but it seems we should have a number guys who could fill middle relief spots as early as late '07 or mid '08.

Krusty
11-15-2006, 11:37 AM
How about this deal:

Adam Dunn and Brenden Harris to the Twins for OF Jason Kubel, RHP Jesse Crain and RHP Scott Baker.

Reds get a young outfielder in Kubel to replace Dunn and play either RF or LF. Crain becomes the Reds closer after serving as a setup man in Minnesota the past two seasons. Baker gives the Reds a young arm for the starting rotation.

M2
11-15-2006, 01:44 PM
Are Medlock, Guevera, Dumtrait, Shafer all 2+ years away? I know most of those guys aren't high ceiling types, but it seems we should have a number guys who could fill middle relief spots as early as late '07 or mid '08.

I was thinking in terms of starting pitching. The Reds have enough advanced fodder on the reliever end that they can reasonably assume that one or two guys from the system will be able to help over the next two years.

In the rotation, though, Homer's pretty much the only horse in that race. You can't plan on guys like Cueto and Wood until at least 2009 and more likely it will be 2010 and beyond (at least in terms of them being plus pitchers). Given the volatility of pitchers his age, Homer's not all that safe a bet either. I'd say the Reds need to plan for him not to arrive in the near term and then if he does that's gravy.

That doesn't necessarily mean that the Reds have to go out and sign Barry Zito, but they'd better find some more Harang/Arroyo types.

Chip R
11-15-2006, 02:33 PM
Well....I have a Dunn figurine.

I also have a Wily Mo and Lopez bobblehead....

Do you see where this is going? :D


You like to play with dolls? :D

pedro
11-15-2006, 02:47 PM
You like to play with dolls? :D

they're "Action Figures"

Handofdeath
11-15-2006, 04:56 PM
What really bothers me is last july we probably could have added jake westbrook for kearns. Then traded lopez for bullpen help if we wanted to and come out alot better then we did with majew and bray. Its a tough decesion to trade dunn because if we do we basically have no offense. If the right deal comes along then do it, the right deal would have to include a starting pitcher and a young OF who can play right now. Not sure if we will get that but to me thats what it would take.

The Reds could not get that. Look what the Yankees got for Sheffield. Then look what they sent for Abreu. I don't think MLB teams see Dunn in that same light. If Dunn goes the Reds will still have to pay something. It might be part or all of his contract, then again it could be exchaging his contract for another big one. Questions about the declining production, work ethic, and defense doesn't help his trade value. So, any team that trades for him will be trading for a 1B or DH. I would also point out that even in Dunn's greatest season OPS wise, which was better than Sheffield's that year in his first season as a Yankee , it was still only 16th in MLB. Teams, unless they are desperate for power and have players to spare, just can't or won't break the bank or empty the farm system for that.

Matt700wlw
11-15-2006, 05:23 PM
they're "Action Figures"

They were free :D

Highlifeman21
11-15-2006, 07:35 PM
The Reds could not get that. Look what the Yankees got for Sheffield. Then look what they sent for Abreu. I don't think MLB teams see Dunn in that same light. If Dunn goes the Reds will still have to pay something. It might be part or all of his contract, then again it could be exchaging his contract for another big one. Questions about the declining production, work ethic, and defense doesn't help his trade value. So, any team that trades for him will be trading for a 1B or DH. I would also point out that even in Dunn's greatest season OPS wise, which was better than Sheffield's that year in his first season as a Yankee , it was still only 16th in MLB. Teams, unless they are desperate for power and have players to spare, just can't or won't break the bank or empty the farm system for that.


The Yankees are lucky they got anything for Sheffield, and they got Abreu from the Phils for pennies on the dollar. Call it a wash.

If the Reds are dumb enough to trade Adam Dunn, I sure as hell they get a deal that more resembles the Sheffield trade than the Abreu trade. I hope we get more than a foam finger and a NY Metro pass for Dunn, which is essentially what the Yankees sent to Philly for Abreu.

mth123
11-15-2006, 10:07 PM
The thing with the starting pitching is that there's only one kid on the farm who profiles as any sort of help within the next two years and he doesn't turn 21 until May.

If Harang or Arroyo get injured, if Bailey gets injured, has a set back or doesn't pan out, then the club is holding an empty bag. The CF resolution is as simple as putting Chris Denorfia in CF. Sure he won't be a superstar, but he'll probably be a perfectly fine player out there (rated best defensive OF by the managers in the IL this season).

The SS situation has a built-in default if Krivsky can't find a SS he likes. Brandon Phillips can play SS and the team can find a 2B (though, if rumors are to be believed, it sounds like Krivsky's aiming at the default rather than hunting for a SS).

Anyway, there is no default for the pitching. Either the Reds go out and find the arms they're going to need or the team can instead trot out the usual assortment of batting tees behind the small amount of quality currently on the roster.

Don't get me wrong. The Reds need to upgrade one spot minimum IMO. My only point is those crummy guys they throw out there aren't as big a disadvantage as it seems because everyone is throwing crummy guys out there. Two-Thirds of the rotation spots in baseball are being manned by guys of the same caliber. This board follows the Reds so its more aware of the how bad the Reds pitchers are, but trust me, other teams are throwing out guys just as bad. As I posted earlier there are 47 guys who threw 180 innings and had an ERA less than 4.50. That makes 103 rotation spots being manned by these other types. The Cardinals won the world series with Jason Marquis throwing 194 innings at a 6.02 ERA. Mark Mulder and Jeff Weaver shared another spot. Mulder threw 93.3 innings at 7.14 and Weaver threw 83.3 at 5.18. Another spot was shared by Anthony Reyes and Sidney Ponson. Reyes threw 85.3 Innings at 5.06 and Ponson threw 68.7 Innings at 5.24. Pitching stinks almost everywhere.

The Reds are thin everywhere right now. They have a little veteran depth in the middle of the pen with Cormier and Maj and the prices of these pitchers on the market is making Lohse more attractive each day. It appears that Freel no longer has a place to play and is less valuable to the Reds than ever. Yet the Derosa signing make his market value very high. I think you can trade some of these guys to fill holes and to get an arm to gamble with. I target effective swingmen or guys being dumped for salary reasons (Horacio Ramirez, Kevin Correia, Wil Ledezma maybe Aaron Heilman but the market has heated up for him it seems). The Reds may even have one of those in Matt Belisle. In 40 very sporadically used innings he had a 3.60 ERA and a VORP of 9.0. His walks are too high and K's too low but I give him a spot until he proves otherwise. Seeing the market for young cheap starters, he won't have to be very good to accumulate some trade value. Regular work may help him get his control in order.

I'd trade Lohse for other needs and let Belisle and Ramirez fill the 3 and 4 spots. Milton at 5 until he can be dealt. Claussen in reserve or hopefully Bailey could take Milton's spot. If I could deal a Belisle or Ramirez with say a Freel for a better version of a number 3 I'd do that. But I don't trade Dunn for a mediocre pitcher (although I would for a proven top starter who has some years left - maybe 5 or so guys like that) and I don't throw Milton money at Jeff Suppan or Tomo Ohka. I give that money to Harang and try to give it to Arroyo.

GAC
11-15-2006, 10:13 PM
Maybe the word "hate" is the wrong word to use but clearly the article that this topic was started on says Dunn doesn't fit into the rest of the philosophy of Krivsky.

That is yet to be seen. But if he can replicate the philosophy of his mentor at Minnesota, which some on here seem to be wary of, and bring that type of success to Cincy, then I'm aboard. ;)


Maybe. Krivsky has shown he's not bashful when it comes to trades and if Dunn wasn't what Krivsky wanted I'm sure he wouldn't have signed him to a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year.

It's a good contract from all sides IMO. Plus, if need be, it's a very tradable contract. Yes, there is a risk involved also. If he goes out in '07 and has a monster year, then that will present a problem for this FO in '08. If it were a Griffey-type contract, then it would far harder. Especially, and I'm speaking hypothetically, if his numbers continue to decrease... you're stuck.

Which side would you want to err on?

GAC
11-15-2006, 10:14 PM
they're "Action Figures"

Whose doing the action though? ;)

TC81190
11-15-2006, 10:37 PM
No thanks, not enough. I think someone in the AL would take a flyer on Dunn.

I doubt Washington would do that deal