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View Full Version : Looking like an expensive offseason . . .



terminator
11-15-2006, 10:23 AM
CHICAGO (AP) -- Mark DeRosa became the first major league free agent to switch teams this offseason, agreeing Tuesday to a $13 million, three-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.

$4MM+ per year for a 31 y/o with career numbers of .273/.331/.404 and 102 Ks in 520ABs (with only one season of full-time play). A decent player, but it looks to be an expensive market if this is any indication.

NJReds
11-15-2006, 10:35 AM
And teams like the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox are looking at pitchers like Padilla, Lilly and Meche... That's sure to drive up the price.

acredsfan
11-15-2006, 11:29 AM
Yeah, it's expensive but get used to it, the reality is that the offseason always has been and always will be expensive. There are 30 teams always trying to sign the best 10-20 players. It's simple economic principles. The price of the higher tier players are driven up because of teams with seemingly unlimited resources willing to pay whatever they have to so they can obtain or at least keep them out of reach of their divisional foes. Just like this bidding war over the japaneze player. Now, this process in turn inflates the value of the next best alternatives at that particular position. And so on, and so on...... The problem has been with teams in the middle to small market range. Teams like the Reds either don't have the ability to or just don't change their payroll at the pace that the market dictates. Instead the challenge for the GMs of the majority of the teams in MLB is to make the less expensive trades and signings that make the biggest impact. We can draft talent all we want, but the reality is, unless the market changes, we will not be able to keep the majority of our best talent. So, yes the market is expensive, but is it surprising? No, at least not to me. Like Wayne said, sometimes it's not the sexiest moves....

mth123
11-15-2006, 09:09 PM
Yeah, it's expensive but get used to it, the reality is that the offseason always has been and always will be expensive. There are 30 teams always trying to sign the best 10-20 players. It's simple economic principles. The price of the higher tier players are driven up because of teams with seemingly unlimited resources willing to pay whatever they have to so they can obtain or at least keep them out of reach of their divisional foes. Just like this bidding war over the japaneze player. Now, this process in turn inflates the value of the next best alternatives at that particular position. And so on, and so on...... The problem has been with teams in the middle to small market range. Teams like the Reds either don't have the ability to or just don't change their payroll at the pace that the market dictates. Instead the challenge for the GMs of the majority of the teams in MLB is to make the less expensive trades and signings that make the biggest impact. We can draft talent all we want, but the reality is, unless the market changes, we will not be able to keep the majority of our best talent. So, yes the market is expensive, but is it surprising? No, at least not to me. Like Wayne said, sometimes it's not the sexiest moves....

One good thing for the Reds. These contracts make some of the Reds questionable trading chips more desirable. Lohse doesn't look so bad now and Freel looks downright attractive as an acquisition.

Redsfan08
11-15-2006, 09:56 PM
no

Matt700wlw
11-15-2006, 11:00 PM
Whomever doesn't see the problem with baseball is blind.

It's getting out of control....these prices are outlandish for the product.

...but it won't change :bang:

marcshoe
11-15-2006, 11:23 PM
So what do you do? Do you say, we must have this pitcher, and the going value is ten million, or do you look to trade for a young, cheap player who won't get eight figures for a couple of more years?

Do you refuse to pay the prices because you don't like inflation, or do you grit your teeth and do it?

If you do, then you had better be sure you're not paying for another Eric Milton. I like Padilla and Lilly, but are they too risky for the price?

terminator
11-16-2006, 10:38 AM
Personally, I think the Reds have too many holes to fill this offseason to be able to compete next year, so I would resist the urge to spend big money on anyone since it won't make the difference. I'd wait until we have a few more answers before trying to add expensive FA parts.

Also, Wes Helms just got $5.5 for 2 years.

Redsland
11-16-2006, 11:38 AM
These contracts make some of the Reds questionable trading chips more desirable.
Yep. A rising tide lifts all boats, as they say.

Milton? LaRue? They might be moveable. And Freel looks like a real bargain.

crazybob60
11-16-2006, 12:08 PM
I think DeRosa is a prime example of a player having his career year during a contract season....look for his numbers to go down this season, I could be wrong and really I hope for his own personal sake I am, but I doubt it. Heck, he helped me out many a night in fantasy.

UK Reds Fan
11-16-2006, 12:16 PM
I would agree that our trading parts don't look all that expensive to me and should be moveable all things considered. Furthermore, should we not be in the market to buy back contracts that appeared a bit over-priced 2-3 years ago that in today's dollar look not-so-bad?

Guys like John Thomson Atlanta
Joel Piniero Mariners
Miguel Batista Diamondbacks

And many others may not look so terrible right now could possibly be swaped with our excess parts (Catcher, bullpen) to shore up our club.

Spitball
11-16-2006, 12:17 PM
So what do you do? Do you say, we must have this pitcher, and the going value is ten million, or do you look to trade for a young, cheap player who won't get eight figures for a couple of more years?

Do you refuse to pay the prices because you don't like inflaction, or do you grit your teeth and do it?

If you do, then you had better be sure you're not paying for another Eric Milton. I like Padilla and Lilly, but are they too risky for the price?

At this point, I think it is very foolish to get into the free agency market for a starting pitcher. The starting price for the Zitos and Schmidts will be established by the large market teams, and those pitchers will probably go to large markets. If they do go to a smaller market, their new team will surely be draining their budget, or robbing Peter to pay Paul, to pay for their services.

The Padillas and Lillys will get far more than they are worth because most teams are desperate for a quick fix for their starting rotations. Look at the signings from the winter of 2004. Milton, Ortiz, Wright, Pavano, and Clement all signed to foolishly large contracts by teams willing to gamble in an inflated market.

I think the best way to improve the pitching is to get a pitcher before he has really established himself. Harang and Arroyo are pretty good examples.

terminator
11-16-2006, 12:48 PM
With what I would consider mediocre pitchers getting $10MM per season in the FA market, I want to see Homer pitching for the Reds next year (on a strict pitch count). I'd much rather see him and his potential next year than paying that much to fill a hole in the rotation with a decent guy with no real upside.

Spring~Fields
11-16-2006, 12:54 PM
Even the lower dollar players are getting 3 million plus to 4 million plus raises per year over their previous contracts, the cost are going through the roof.

Leaves me with a bunch of questions that I don't have any answers to that are workable in a timely and reasonable manner because it looks like Mr. Krivsky and staff under the current environment and conditions are going to have been near miracle workers.

Since the prices for free agent players are going so high and the Reds have been short on talent running at least six straight years now with their hit and miss trades and while their hit and miss minor league system has produced little over that six year period to raise the major league team up. Would it be wise for Wayne Krivsky to start trading off players to obtain minor league players from other teams that are major league ready or near major league ready? So they can build from within somewhat and at the same time acquire quality players that are affordable to them.

I wonder:

If a team cannot financially compete with the outrageous prices going to established major league players on the free agent market by the larger market teams, well, then what?

If a team does not have the talent, quality and quantity within their hit and miss minor league system that takes many years to develop players to help the current major league team, well, then what?

If a team cannot trade off certain limited resources that they have in offensive or pitching talent without seriously hurting their teams chances of winning because they cannot get equal to or greater than value in return in a trade or trades, well, then what?

If a team does not have current major league players that other teams highly value from which to obtain good impact trades, well, then what?

If a team has tried various plans that involved items as with the “well, then what” list above and it has not worked in several years running for them, well, then what?

Let’s see, a team can’t buy the players, a team can’t seem to trade for them, and they have not been able to grow them from within in their minor league system while many years come and go, six years or more, well, then what?

Then don’t the Reds have to do what some other teams have done, trade off what they can to obtain quality minor league players that they will soon be able to play on their major league team at a salary that they can afford and at the same time be able to hang on to those players for some time into the future?

If the answer is no, well, then what?

marcshoe
11-16-2006, 01:44 PM
Did I just heard on XM something along the lines of Boston possibly offering the Japanese pitcher 9 million a year? I was expecting more (if I heard correctly--I just caught a bit of the conversation). Any chance this would bring prices overall down a bit?

And, btw, has anyone heard what Schmidt's asking for?

Spring~Fields
11-16-2006, 02:24 PM
How much will these player increases on the free agent market effect arbitration rulings if any?

Redsland
11-16-2006, 02:34 PM
Greatly, depending on whether an arb player's closest comps have benefitted from any recent raises.

Spring~Fields
11-16-2006, 02:50 PM
Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse, David Ross

I was trying to figure out if these guys will cost substantially more now that the free agent market has risen in cost.

Chip R
11-16-2006, 02:58 PM
Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse, David Ross

I was trying to figure out if these guys will cost substantially more now that the free agent market has risen in cost.


Indeed. Perhaps Wayne should re-sign/trade them before all these other guys are signed to outrageous deals.

Spring~Fields
11-16-2006, 03:03 PM
Indeed. Perhaps Wayne should re-sign/trade them before all these other guys are signed to outrageous deals.

A little too ambiguous for me to grasp, can you clarify that?

It does seem that it might be advantageous signing Harang under the current market pressures, he might want to get at least Harang signed to a long term contract, is that what you meant?

curedsfan
11-16-2006, 04:52 PM
Ok, so I hardly ever post, but I feel that it's time. Castellini says he's going to raise payroll to put a 'winner' out on the field, like in the broadcast booth. Why don't we just do the following ->

Sign Ted Lilly 4yrs, $38M (ESPN says he's looking for 35-40M for 4 years)
Sign Justin Speier 3yrs, $14M (ESPN says he's looking to do better than Scott Eyre did last year at $12M for 3 yrs)
LTC for Harang 4yrs, $35M
Resign David Weather 2yrs, $4M

Trade for Marcus Giles
- not sure what the Braves would want, but maybe some sort of package of Coffey/Majik/Bray/Freel

This would give the Reds a lineup of

Phillips SS
Giles 2B
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Griffey RF/CF (RF if its up to Redszone, CF if up to Narron)
Hatteburg 1B
Ross/LaRue/Valentin C
Denorfia CF/RF

And a rotation of

Harang
Arroyo
Lilly
Milton/Claussen/Lohse(if resigned)/Ramirez/Bailey(after call up - summertime)

Bullpen

Speier
Weathers
Cormier
Belisle
Salmon/whoever else from AA or AAA that makes the squad

This would probably add about $20-25M in payroll in 2007, so that would put the Reds at about $80-85M?

Seems simple to me, what do you guys think?

terminator
11-16-2006, 05:15 PM
Since the prices for free agent players are going so high and the Reds have been short on talent running at least six straight years now with their hit and miss trades and while their hit and miss minor league system has produced little over that six year period to raise the major league team up. Would it be wise for Wayne Krivsky to start trading off players to obtain minor league players from other teams that are major league ready or near major league ready? So they can build from within somewhat and at the same time acquire quality players that are affordable to them.


Unpopular, yes, but I don't see any other way. They have too many holes to begin to patch them with $15MM or $20MM of extra spending. We were -52 runs last year. Just to be a legitimate .500 team, we need to make up a run differential of 52 runs. (It was -69 in 2005, FWIW.) So far, we can assume that Aurilia is gone and everyone else of consequence is returning. So, we're actually a little further behind than 52 runs since Aurilia was a big plus last year. No Guardado next year (most likely). Throw in that Hatteburg probably will be back to career norms next year, that Phillips is still an unknown and more importantly that the big difference makers like Zito, Schmidt, Soriano, etc. are going to priced out of our market, and I don't see where we're going to pick up 50-60 runs -- let alone enough to have a legitimate playoff shot. Sorry to be so pessimistic, but I think Krivsky would need to work miracles to improve the team by what we need to get into the playoffs.

So, yes, from a cold rational viewpoint I think that is what Krivsky needs to do although I know we're all tired of rebuilding.

terminator
11-19-2006, 11:21 PM
Following up . . .

Frank Thomas, 2 yrs / $18 MM

Soriano, 8 yrs / $136MM

Spier, 4 yrs/ $18MM

Jamie Walker, 3 yrs / $12MM

Alou rumored to be near $8/$9MM one year deal

Will M
11-19-2006, 11:56 PM
Ok, so I hardly ever post, but I feel that it's time. Castellini says he's going to raise payroll to put a 'winner' out on the field, like in the broadcast booth. Why don't we just do the following ->

Sign Ted Lilly 4yrs, $38M (ESPN says he's looking for 35-40M for 4 years)
Sign Justin Speier 3yrs, $14M (ESPN says he's looking to do better than Scott Eyre did last year at $12M for 3 yrs)
LTC for Harang 4yrs, $35M
Resign David Weather 2yrs, $4M

Trade for Marcus Giles
- not sure what the Braves would want, but maybe some sort of package of Coffey/Majik/Bray/Freel

This would give the Reds a lineup of

Phillips SS
Giles 2B
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Griffey RF/CF (RF if its up to Redszone, CF if up to Narron)
Hatteburg 1B
Ross/LaRue/Valentin C
Denorfia CF/RF

And a rotation of

Harang
Arroyo
Lilly
Milton/Claussen/Lohse(if resigned)/Ramirez/Bailey(after call up - summertime)

Bullpen

Speier
Weathers
Cormier
Belisle
Salmon/whoever else from AA or AAA that makes the squad

This would probably add about $20-25M in payroll in 2007, so that would put the Reds at about $80-85M?

Seems simple to me, what do you guys think?

1. IMO Lilly isn't a good fit for the Reds since he is a flyball pitcher. The Reds play in GABP so they need more groundball pitchers. Especially now that the infield defense is improved.

2. Other than the cream of the crop, relievers are notoriously volatile from year to year. I think the Reds should try to find a closer then follow him with several solid relievers. If one of the has an off year then drop him into the 6th/7th innings not the 8th. Speier signed with the Angels but it was for more than i would have paid ( had my initials been BC ).

3. agree with trying to sign Harang to a long term contract. he is young and consistent

4. i believe Krisky feels Phillips defense wasn't good enough at 2B to try him at SS which is why we got Alex 'Big Stick' Gonzalez.