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mbgrayson
11-19-2006, 02:35 AM
Excellent Prospects
1. Homer Bailey (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/BAILEY19860503A.php), RHP "he's damn good and he knows it"
2. Jay Bruce (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/BRUCE19870403A.php), RF "Advanced hitter with strong, quick wrists and plenty of in-game power"
Very Good Prospects
3. Joey Votto (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/VOTTO19830910A.php), 1B (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=1B) " Athletic first baseman combines solid hitting skills with plus power and patience"
Good Prospects
4. Drew Stubbs, CF "Among the best athletes in the game, with size, speed, and tons of raw power potential"
5. Johnny Cueto, RHP "Thrived after moving to the rotation..."
6. Travis Wood, LHP "Lefty with impressive arsenal"
7. Sean Watson, LHP "Aggressive demeanor; commands his pitches well despite questionable mechanics"
Average Prospects
8. Milton Loo, SS/3B "Quick hands and excellent plate coverage leads to line drives sprayed from pole-to-pole"
9. Chris Valaika, SS "Ultra-quick bat with gap power"
10. Paul Janish, SS "A decent hitter who makes plenty of contact "

Of the Reds farm system:

"The beginning of this decade was marked by bad drafts, bad player development, and some just plain ol' bad luck, leaving the Reds system as one of the worst in baseball. While the Bailey/Bruce combination completely changes the equation, the relative lack of talent at Double- and Triple-A means the organization will still be paying the price for the previous administration's foibles for another couple of years."

To see the entire article (Premium content on Baseball Prosepctus : http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5713

jmcclain19
11-19-2006, 03:25 AM
Hmmm...


The Sleeper: Signed in 2003 as a 39th-round draft-and-follow, right-handed reliever Calvin Medlock gets little attention but continues to get batters out at every level, putting up a 2.97 ERA this year at Double-A Chattanooga with 70 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Despite being listed at 5-foot-10 and looking smaller than that, Medlock deals in the low-90s, touches 95-96 mph, and features a very good changeup.

mth123
11-19-2006, 08:12 AM
I didn't see this list last year so I don't know if it is more or less, but for a credible group like Baseball Prospectus to say the Reds have 7 good or better prospects is hopeful IMO. 4 are pitchers, 2 look like cornerstone bats and the other was last years 1st round pick.

Many of these websites are fly by night operations that know no more than we do, but BP knows what its doing.

In March of 2006 the same author said in summary:
- the Reds system is awful
- After Bailey, Bruce and Wood the list is depleted of good players.
- The Reds lack any players at the upper levels who project as regulars.

I'd say having 7 guys considered good is a big leap forward. Bailey and Votto are upper levels now.

dougdirt
11-19-2006, 10:36 AM
Heck, of the guys they listed in the top 10, Bailey, Votto, Janish and probably Cueto will start the season at AA or AAA. I think there is talent outside of those guys that will be at AA/AAA after those guys as well.

cincinnati chili
11-19-2006, 11:48 AM
I didn't see this list last year so I don't know if it is more or less...


I'm pretty sure Kevin Goldstein didn't come on board until '06. If I'm correct, this will bethe first year that Prospectus ranks each team's top 10 prospects, let alone putting them in tiers like Great, Good, etc.

It will be interesting in 5-10 years to compare their listed results to Baseball America and John Sickels and others.

ochre
11-19-2006, 12:31 PM
I will continue to be disappointed with the conversion of Medlock to reliever last season. I firmly believe you give guys that have performed, as he has, every chance as a starter. The caveat to that would be bringing them to the majors as relievers as a transition easer. Getting overly concerned about stature and build would have left P. Martinez and Oswalt as relievers in this system too I suppose? Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?

Superdude
11-19-2006, 12:43 PM
Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?

That's what BP said, but they also said he had a "rudimentary" changeup. From everything I heard, Cueto developed a good changeup this season, I seriously doubt Cueto will be converted any time in the near future.

AdamDunn
11-19-2006, 08:33 PM
Joey Votto is underrated big time. Joey Votto belongs in the elite class of prospects with Bailey. He's patient, power, speed, and defense. The only reason he's so low on some people's list is because he only showed up this year. He's going to be a MAJOR contributer to the ball club in 2008.

cincyinco
11-19-2006, 09:39 PM
I don't think its wise to put Votto higher up on the list after 1 good year... He made major progress, but I wouldn't put him in the elite class of prospects just yet..He could get there with another big year, but let him prove it before putting him in that class.

He is a fine prospect - I dont know if I see a perinnial allstar or not, but he should be a solid everyday guy I think. Thats a good prospect, but not a great one.

VR
11-22-2006, 04:28 PM
Advanced hitter with strong, quick wrists and plenty of in-game power


Just checking....what would qualify as 'in-game' power? :confused:

cincyinco
11-22-2006, 04:51 PM
Just checking....what would qualify as 'in-game' power? :confused:


Power that shows up in the game and not just in batting practice... ?

BoydsOfSummer
11-24-2006, 04:06 PM
Votto is getting plenty of love over at Sickels site. maybe it's from Zoners lurking around over there but he's in the running for a top 35-40 spot overall in a community top prospect list.

maniem
11-27-2006, 02:45 PM
Joey Votto is underrated big time. Joey Votto belongs in the elite class of prospects with Bailey. He's patient, power, speed, and defense. The only reason he's so low on some people's list is because he only showed up this year. He's going to be a MAJOR contributer to the ball club in 2008.

I really hope this is true. I wonder what Dunn and Kearns were rated when they were in the minors? If i remember right, they were much more hyped than Votto has been. I would have to think Dunn would have been rated an excellent prospect and Kearns a very good prospect. I would have to think that when Votto makes the jump to the bigs, he'll at least be able to consistently produce the way Kearns did in 2006...850 OPS, 25 HR - 90 RBI...i'm hoping he can do better than that once he gains more experience.

VR
11-27-2006, 06:52 PM
Power that shows up in the game and not just in batting practice... ?

great, does that mean we'll start seeing 'in-game' defense, 'in-game' speed...etc? :)

dougdirt
11-27-2006, 07:57 PM
I really hope this is true. I wonder what Dunn and Kearns were rated when they were in the minors? If i remember right, they were much more hyped than Votto has been. I would have to think Dunn would have been rated an excellent prospect and Kearns a very good prospect. I would have to think that when Votto makes the jump to the bigs, he'll at least be able to consistently produce the way Kearns did in 2006...850 OPS, 25 HR - 90 RBI...i'm hoping he can do better than that once he gains more experience.

Kearns was ranked as high as 11 and Dunn ranked as high as 33 on Baseball Americas top 100 list. Votto is probably right where Dunn was at his highest and Jay Bruce will be ahead of where Kearns was probably, and he is just finished with Low-A.

reds44
11-29-2006, 06:33 PM
I will continue to be disappointed with the conversion of Medlock to reliever last season. I firmly believe you give guys that have performed, as he has, every chance as a starter. The caveat to that would be bringing them to the majors as relievers as a transition easer. Getting overly concerned about stature and build would have left P. Martinez and Oswalt as relievers in this system too I suppose? Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?
Oh God I hope not. That would beyond stupid. Imagine Harang, Bailey, and Cueto in a few years.

RANDY IN INDY
11-30-2006, 08:42 AM
Just checking....what would qualify as 'in-game' power? :confused:

There's a lot of those 5 o'clock hitters, around.;)

Aronchis
12-01-2006, 05:31 PM
I will continue to be disappointed with the conversion of Medlock to reliever last season. I firmly believe you give guys that have performed, as he has, every chance as a starter. The caveat to that would be bringing them to the majors as relievers as a transition easer. Getting overly concerned about stature and build would have left P. Martinez and Oswalt as relievers in this system too I suppose? Is this the year that Cueto gets converted to a reliever as well?

I am not. Medlock gets that extra "bounce" in the bullpen while he throws 89-92 while starting with NO changeup. Hopefully the doubters will understand the differences between Medlock and Roy Oswalt. Cueto has a better chance of starting because he has developing changeup and better arm.

I am simply amazed some of you can't get it yet lol.........

Z-Fly
12-03-2006, 03:08 AM
As much as everyone disliked DanO, you can't argue with his drafts.

jmcclain19
12-03-2006, 04:30 AM
As much as everyone disliked DanO, you can't argue with his drafts.

Sure you can. One Homer Bailey coverd up the dozens of awful pics that follwed.

Outside of Bailey (and perhaps Milton Loo, who was signed two years later) I doubt any one else from that draft becomes more than a bit AAAA type player.

I'm glad Bailey panned out, but that's more dumb luck than anything else.

dougdirt
12-03-2006, 11:28 AM
Sure you can. One Homer Bailey coverd up the dozens of awful pics that follwed.

Outside of Bailey (and perhaps Milton Loo, who was signed two years later) I doubt any one else from that draft becomes more than a bit AAAA type player.

I'm glad Bailey panned out, but that's more dumb luck than anything else.
To play Davils Advocate here, taking the 2004 High School Player of the Year and the kid turns out to be good is probably more than dumb luck. After Bailey, the 2004 draft seems pretty bad across the board, but there are still a few guys from that draft I like.
Paul Janish is finally starting to show the promise he showed in college with his bat. Cody Strait has a very intriuging combo of spped and power....if he can bring his contact level up just a bit, he could be very interesting.

But that is probably about it

RedLegSuperStar
12-03-2006, 12:51 PM
how many of those guys were obtain through trades?

dougdirt
12-03-2006, 03:18 PM
how many of those guys were obtain through trades?
Not a single one.
1. Homer Bailey - Drafted 2004
2. Jay Bruce - drafed 2005
3. Joey Votto - drafted 2002
4. Drew Stubbs - drafted 2006
5. Johnny Cueto - signed as a free agent in 2004
6. Travis Wood - drafted 2005
7. Sean Watson - drafted 2006
8. Milton Loo -drafted in 04 and 05, signed May of 06.
9. Chris Valaika - drafted 2006
10. Paul Janish - drafted 2004

Cooper
12-05-2006, 10:29 PM
One thing i am concerned about, but i may not have the correct info.

Re: Joey Votto. His BABIP average was .371. Now if IIRC the league average is .300. This may mean that Votto was extremely hit lucky. I read on one of the sabr sites that minor league stars tend to have higher BABIP, but i doubt they average this high (.371). If i'm correct, it my mean that he's not near as ready as the club may think. He needs a year in AAA to conolidate gains made this year and to even out the luck factor so we can see what we really got.

Superdude
12-05-2006, 10:41 PM
Joey Votto. His BABIP average was .371.

Where'd you find that? .371 is pretty darn high.

Cooper
12-05-2006, 10:44 PM
Superdude id post the link but i'm terrible with the internet thing --found it on a site called minorleaguesplits.com.

dougdirt
12-05-2006, 11:48 PM
BABIP is usually .280-.310. In the minor leagues, it tends to be a little higher for certain guys, becuase well, they are just better hitters. You hit more line drives facing lesser competition, more line drives usually means more hits.

If you want to break down Votto a little further lets take a peak.

He had 398 batted balls on the season.
160 went for hits, while 238 were not hits.
of his 159 ground balls, just 30 went for hits. That is just 19%.
He had 71 line drives, 55 of which went for hits. That is 77%.
He also had 156 fly balls, 66 of which went for hits. That is 42%.

His line drives and fly balls went for hits a lot of the time. I think its more of a he hit the ball real hard, an awful lot than he was real lucky. He had 70 extra base hits on the season....

IslandRed
12-06-2006, 11:54 AM
Factoring in BABIP for hitters doesn't work quite the same way as it does for pitchers anyway. Pitchers are so tightly clustered in terms of their ability to control BABIP that for most practical purposes the variations are just random luck and defense. Hitters *do* control BABIP. They're still subject to fluctuations around their "natural" BABIP level due to luck, but it's not accurate to start with the assumption that all hitters start with the same general BABIP rate.