PDA

View Full Version : Cubs sign Soriano to 8 year $136M deal



Reds Fanatic
11-19-2006, 03:18 PM
The Cubs have signed Alfonso Soriano to an 8 year deal for $136 million.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2668465


Updated: Nov. 19, 2006, 3:15 PM ET
Report: Cubs agree to $136M deal with SorianoSportsTicker


CHICAGO -- The Chicago Cubs' ownership is showing new manager Lou Piniella that they are serious about winning.

Chicago radio station ESPN 1000 reported Sunday that the Cubs have agreed to an eight-year contract worth approximately $136 million with outfielder Alfonso Soriano.

The move would clearly mark the highlight in an already busy offseason for the Cubs, who have signed free-agent infielder Mark DeRosa and have re-signed third baseman Aramis Ramirez and righthander Kerry Wood.

But the biggest prize is Soriano, who is coming off an outstanding all-around season for the Washington Nationals in which he hit .277 with 46 home runs and 95 RBI. The 30-year-old ranked third in the National League in homers and also stole 41 bases -- the sixth-highest total in the circuit.

After complaining in spring training about having to move from second base to left field, Soriano blossomed in his new surroundings. He led the league with 22 outfield assists, six more than his closest competitor, and displayed respectable range for a converted infielder.

Soriano became the first player in baseball history with 40 home runs, 40 stolen bases and 20 outfield assists in a single season. He also became the first member of the 40-40-40 club, which encapsulates homers, stolen bases and doubles.

An All-Star in each of the last five years, Soriano owns a .280 average with 208 home runs and 560 RBI in eight seasons with the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers and the Nationals.

Soriano won the AL Rookie of the Year award with the Yankees in 2001, when he hit .268 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. He finished third in MVP voting the following season, when he increased his average to .300 and collected 39 homers and 102 RBI.

pedro
11-19-2006, 03:18 PM
That's ridiculous.

vaticanplum
11-19-2006, 03:20 PM
I love Soriano. But that is insane. And very Cubs-like.

Eight years?!?

Ltlabner
11-19-2006, 03:21 PM
Stunning.....absoutly stunning.

All the props to his agent for convincing the Cubs to do this deal. But wow. Don't think the Cubs owners have too much room to complain about being poor now.

M2
11-19-2006, 03:22 PM
I can only imagine what will happen to Soriano's game now that he's financially set for life.

reds44
11-19-2006, 03:23 PM
This just adds to the reasons why NOT to trade Adam Dunn.

That's alot of money for alot of years.

MrCinatit
11-19-2006, 03:25 PM
Yikes! This has more potential to turn into a remarkably bad deal than anything else. No matter how good Soriano performs - can he perform up to the Cubs' fans expectations? Doubtful.

paintmered
11-19-2006, 03:26 PM
I can't think of a single reason why this should be considered a good deal for the Cubs.

reds44
11-19-2006, 03:27 PM
Is he going to play CF or LF?

We should now go try to get Matt Murton from them. :evil:

Redny
11-19-2006, 03:27 PM
Now thats a deal that will look real bad in 5 years.

Ltlabner
11-19-2006, 03:29 PM
Exhibit A as to why small, incremental moves are sometimes better than one blockbuster move.

Highlifeman21
11-19-2006, 03:29 PM
This just adds to the reasons why NOT to trade Adam Dunn.

That's alot of money for alot of years.


Very well said.

Dunn for 10M this year and 13M next year is a bargain.

I take it Soriano will be manning LF for the Baby Bears, or will we get to enjoy his efforts at 2B?

reds44
11-19-2006, 03:30 PM
Very well said.

Dunn for 10M this year and 13M next year is a bargain.

I take it Soriano will be manning LF for the Baby Bears, or will we get to enjoy his efforts at 2B?
DeRosa has been promised he will be the everyday 2nd baseman.

Spring~Fields
11-19-2006, 03:49 PM
How will this move by the Cubs effect their chances of winning games, RS vs. RA etc. and how will it effect the Reds chances, if any? I hope that the Cubs don't improve their pitching.

westofyou
11-19-2006, 03:52 PM
This is what 136 Million gets you in todays new market.


AVG SLG OBA OPS
.268 .432 .304 .736
.300 .547 .332 .880
.290 .525 .338 .863
.280 .484 .324 .807
.268 .512 .309 .821
.277 .560 .351 .911

Mario-Rijo
11-19-2006, 03:53 PM
Outstanding point about DeRosa, how soon we forget about smaller moves when one of this stature comes along. I wonder if Houston now signs Carlos Lee if so then we better get busy signing yet another solid pitcher. The good news however is that if Lee does sign with Houston, then their LF defense is as bad or worse than ours. I actually say Dunn is better than either but Soriano can still get better.

BTW doesn't Chicago get to keep their early 1st rounder, even though they have signed Alfonso? Due to the fact that their pick is in the 1st 16.

westofyou
11-19-2006, 03:55 PM
BTW, Bowden sure dropped the ball on Soriano.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2006-07-31-trade-roundup_x.htm


"The guys, the city, the team's pretty good," Soriano said. "I like it here, and I want to be a part of it for a long time."

RedsManRick
11-19-2006, 03:59 PM
BTW, Bowden sure dropped the ball on Soriano.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2006-07-31-trade-roundup_x.htm

I read that as "If Washington gives me as much money as somebody else, I'll stay around."

If that ball you speak of weighs $134MM, fans should be thrilled that he dropped it. Soriano, might, MIGHT be worth 18 million in his best year. But they've got him for 8.

RFS62
11-19-2006, 04:01 PM
With the owners flush with cash and no end in sight, player salaries are climbing faster than the South Florida real estate market.

All the standards are being challenged, as well they should be.

If the money is there, the players are the rightful recipients, no matter how crazy it sounds on the surface.

Jpup
11-19-2006, 04:02 PM
BTW, Bowden sure dropped the ball on Soriano.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2006-07-31-trade-roundup_x.htm

You can hardly blame Bowden for Soriano not wanting to play in Washington. Nobody is going to turn down 8 years/136 million, nobody. I know it's the Cubs but sheesh.

westofyou
11-19-2006, 04:13 PM
You can hardly blame Bowden for Soriano not wanting to play in Washington. Nobody is going to turn down 8 years/136 million, nobody. I know it's the Cubs but sheesh.

If he had dealt him he would have bodies and not an empty quote that dissuaded him to hold on to him. I don't blame Bowden for Soriano signing, but for not having that killer instinct to make hay off his hottest year.

harangatang
11-19-2006, 04:14 PM
If he had dealt him he would have bodies and not an empty quote that dissuaded him to hold on to him. I don't blame Bowden for Soriano signing, but for not having that killer instinct to make hay off his hottest year.Terribly reminiscent of the Reds isn't it?

pedro
11-19-2006, 04:16 PM
While I don't think this is a good move for the Cubs, I don't relish the idea of the Reds pitching having to face him 18 times a year.

westofyou
11-19-2006, 04:19 PM
Terribly reminiscent of the Reds isn't it?

Who was the Reds last walk guy?

Greg Vaughn?

The Reds recent history is to get soft and ink the player (Larkin, Casey) or they let him slip into veto rights (Junior) or occasionally swing and miss, though they did hit it once...they did get something right when they got Harang (Guillen)

But they haven't got nothing like the Nationals are going to be getting in some time.

Ravenlord
11-19-2006, 04:20 PM
anyone else see Soriano not making it to an 800 OPS next year?

Falls City Beer
11-19-2006, 04:26 PM
While I don't think this is a good move for the Cubs, I don't relish the idea of the Reds pitching having to face him 18 times a year.

I agree. The only positive that comes out of this is that it wasn't the Cards who got him. You know he would absolutely crush the Reds if he played for the Cards.

harangatang
11-19-2006, 04:28 PM
Who was the Reds last walk guy?

Greg Vaughn?

The Reds recent history is to get soft and ink the player (Larkin, Casey) or they let him slip into veto rights (Junior) or occasionally swing and miss, though they did hit it once...they did get something right when they got Harang (Guillen)

But they haven't got nothing like the Nationals are going to be getting in some time.Excuse me, I should've been more clear. My point was not trading players when they had their highest value. I was slightly expanding on your thoughts though I didn;t express it. My point was that the Reds don't trade their players when they have their highest value. Yes they did trade Gullien at the right time but that was a cost cutting move enacted by Lindner during the firesale when they traded anyone and everyone. There have plenty of times where the Reds don't get the maximum value for players like Sean Casey. The Reds seem to always get the minimum value when they trade their players coming off their worst year.

Jpup
11-19-2006, 04:33 PM
anyone else see Soriano not making it to an 800 OPS next year?

I think he will play well for a couple years in Chicago. I hope you are right though.

Spitball
11-19-2006, 04:41 PM
Bowden's pride bit him in the booty because he didn't take the best offer at the deadline. He wanted a "Holy sh**" type return for Soriano and didn't get it so he ended up with nothin'.

And, the Cubs now have a very expensive player who can't pitch. With the new contract, I'm betting he reverts back to the 2004-2005 version of Soriano who wasn't playing for a big contract.

traderumor
11-19-2006, 04:43 PM
I am just picturing Soriano playing Wrigley LF for half of his games. Alfonso, wind, ivy and bricks should make for some good bloopers.

Heath
11-19-2006, 04:43 PM
Cubs sure spend a lot of money.

Why does this one have "albatross" all over it?

Heath
11-19-2006, 04:44 PM
I am just picturing Soriano playing Wrigley LF for half of his games. Alfonso, wind, ivy and bricks should make some for some good bloopers.

I think the Cubs think he can DH.






:evil:

corkedbat
11-19-2006, 04:53 PM
This just negates any gain from the Pinella hire and insures the Scrubs will be the Scrubs for years to come. Smething tells me that all that moneywill give Soriano the security to take sulking and complaining to hitherto undreamed of depths - beyond a mere art form to the realms of the transcendant. :D

Never pegged Lou as the kind to kiss anyone's arse, but I'll bet Alf tries to make it so.. Should make for enthralling reality TV.

Willy
11-19-2006, 04:54 PM
Rotoworld is reporting that he will play centerfield and bat leadoff!!!!!!!!!!

Now that is the Cubs I know and love.

M2
11-19-2006, 05:03 PM
With the owners flush with cash and no end in sight, player salaries are climbing faster than the South Florida real estate market.

All the standards are being challenged, as well they should be.

If the money is there, the players are the rightful recipients, no matter how crazy it sounds on the surface.

Good point. It's all relative to the amount of money in the game. Owners are only spending because they've got it.

RedsManRick
11-19-2006, 05:16 PM
Soriano in Wrigley could become the first leadoff man to hit 50 homers. Soriano is the perfect bat for 5th or 6th where both his power and speed are valuable but his OBP issues are minimized. I would love to see the Cubbies lead him off.

mth123
11-19-2006, 05:18 PM
8 years is a surprise. But I was thinking 6 years at $20 per. This doesn't shock me at all. Reds44 is right about Dunn. He's a steal IMO.

traderumor
11-19-2006, 05:43 PM
Rotoworld is reporting that he will play centerfield and bat leadoff!!!!!!!!!!

Now that is the Cubs I know and love.This just in. Alfonso has refused to play centerfield. He claims that he has now mastered LF and wants to play to his strengths. This is a developing story, stay tuned for updates.

traderumor
11-19-2006, 05:46 PM
Breaking News! Lou has just been told about Soriano's refusal to play centerfield

http://sportsmed.starwave.com/i/magazine/new/piniella.jpg

Falls City Beer
11-19-2006, 05:46 PM
I wonder how far up Jocketty drove the price for Soriano before walking away from the table?

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 05:51 PM
8 years is a surprise. But I was thinking 6 years at $20 per. This doesn't shock me at all. Reds44 is right about Dunn. He's a steal IMO.

I can't call Dunn a "steal" in comparison. As a leadoff guy, he had more HRs, more RBI, a much higher avg, more hits, more runs and a ton of SBs than Dunn. And he is either improving or at least staying th same in most categories, especially his walk rate.

reds44
11-19-2006, 06:04 PM
I can't call Dunn a "steal" in comparison. As a leadoff guy, he had more HRs, more RBI, a much higher avg, more hits, more runs and a ton of SBs than Dunn. And he is either improving or at least staying th same in most categories, especially his walk rate.
I'll take Dunn for 2 years, 23 mil. over Soriano for 8 years 136 mil.

mth123
11-19-2006, 06:06 PM
I can't call Dunn a "steal" in comparison. As a leadoff guy, he had more HRs, more RBI, a much higher avg, more hits, more runs and a ton of SBs than Dunn. And he is either improving or at least staying th same in most categories, especially his walk rate.

I don't know. Soriano is older and has only had an OPS over .900 once. In the two previous years to 2006 didn't even OPS .825 in a premier hitters park. Sorianos average OPS the last 3 years is .843. Dunn's "bad" year in 2006 is higher. I don't think the SBs add value unless he's on my fantasy team.

I'm betting that by the time this market is finished adjusting, Dunn's $13 Million next year will be considered very low even for a guy who puts up the 2006 version of Dunn's numbers. Rumor is Juan Pierre is set to sign for 3 years $30 Million. Dunn's a steal.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 06:08 PM
I'll take Dunn for 2 years, 23 mil. over Soriano for 8 years 136 mil.

How about when you have limited payroll constraints?

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 06:10 PM
I don't know. Soriano is older and has only had an OPS over .900 once. In the two previous years to 2006 didn't even OPS .825 in a premier hitters park. Sorianos average OPS the last 3 years is .843. Dunn's "bad" year in 2006 is higher. I don't think the SBs add value unless he's on my fantasy team.

I'm betting that by the time this market is finished adjusting, Dunn's $13 Million next year will be considered very low even for a guy who puts up the 2006 version of Dunn's numbers. Rumor is Juan Pierre is set to sign for 3 years $30 Million. Dunn's a steal.

I don't know many .230 hitters who make $13 million. No matter what their walk rate is.

Outshined_One
11-19-2006, 06:11 PM
Some fun details on this situation coming out of Chicago...

1) The last two years of the contract have options. No one's quite sure if they are player, team, or mutual, but he's guaranteed six years with the Cubs.

2) According to an interview with Piniella, the Cubs intend on playing him at one of the corners. He said the team intends to pursue starting pitching and a center fielder now, so I'm guessing that means Murton or Jones gets moved. Some people think Jones might move to CF, but that seems unlikely.

3) The Cubs reportedly were upping their payroll up to $120m this offseason. With this signing, the current payroll is at around $100m.

4) There also is reportedly a no trade clause that lasts for 5-6 years.

mth123
11-19-2006, 06:15 PM
I don't know many .230 hitters who make $13 million. No matter what their walk rate is.

And how many 40 HR guys make less once they get some leverage?

westofyou
11-19-2006, 06:16 PM
Concerning Dunn and Soriano, and the walks.

What's amazing is that Soriano played on some juggernaut offensive squads and led off most of the time and with 3900 lifetime at bats he only has 104 more runs scored then Dunn, despite having 1070 more at bats.

Dunn has 350 more walks then Soriano in 752 less plate appearances.

Redsland
11-19-2006, 06:18 PM
Breaking News! Lou has just been told about Soriano's refusal to play centerfield

http://sportsmed.starwave.com/i/magazine/new/piniella.jpg
No kidding.

The last guy who refused to play a new position for Lou got designated for assignment from the Devil Rays, and was picked up by the Reds.

Will Soriano follow the same path as...

...Jason Romano?

:cool:

PuffyPig
11-19-2006, 06:20 PM
whether or not Soriano is worth $17M per year is pretty immaterial if you have the money to sign him.

The Cubs are a better team today than they were yesterday.

If we could suddenly get our payroll into the $120 range, think what our team might look like.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 06:20 PM
And how many 40 HR guys make less once they get some leverage?

Not sure. How many consistent 40 HR guys today actually hit .230?

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 06:30 PM
[QUOTE=westofyou;1194968]What's amazing is that Soriano played on some juggernaut offensive squads and led off most of the time and with 3900 lifetime at bats he only has 104 more runs scored then Dunn, despite having 1070 more at bats./QUOTE]

The 752 less PAs is more relevant while looking at this statistic. And 104 more runs scored in 752 more PAs is almost like a full season in both stats.

Soriano also has 94 RBI in 752 more PAs as primarily a leadoff hitter. Also about a full season.

westofyou
11-19-2006, 06:38 PM
Soriano also has 94 RBI in 752 more PAs as primarily a leadoff hitter. Also about a full season.And he also played on teams that scored this many runs and didn't have the pitcher batting in front of him.


RUNS YEAR R
Yankees 2001 804
Yankees 2002 897
Yankees 2003 877
Rangers 2004 860
Rangers 2005 865
Nationals 2006 746


RUNS YEAR R
Reds 2005 820
Reds 2004 750
Reds 2006 749
Reds 2001 735
Reds 2002 709
Reds 2003 694

mth123
11-19-2006, 06:40 PM
Not sure. How many consistent 40 HR guys today actually hit .230?

In Dunn's bad year he was on base 36.5% of the time. In Soriano's career year he was on base 35.1% of the time. I think BA isn't that relevant.

This really isn't an argument about Soriano vs. Dunn anyway. Its more about the market. I don't think in the current market that the 2006 version of Adam Dunn could be signed for less than $13 Million.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 06:45 PM
And he also played on teams that scored this many runs and didn't have the pitcher batting in front of him.


RUNS YEAR R
Yankees 2001 804
Yankees 2002 897
Yankees 2003 877
Rangers 2004 860
Rangers 2005 865
Nationals 2006 746


RUNS YEAR R
Reds 2005 820
Reds 2004 750
Reds 2006 749
Reds 2001 735
Reds 2002 709
Reds 2003 694

Who hit 8 and 9 on those teams? And he did have the pitcher hitting in front of him last year and still had more RBI than Dunn.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 06:46 PM
In Dunn's bad year he was on base 36.5% of the time. In Soriano's career year he was on base 35.1% of the time. I think BA isn't that relevant.

This really isn't an argument about Soriano vs. Dunn anyway. Its more about the market. I don't think in the current market that the 2006 version of Adam Dunn could be signed for less than $13 Million.

I agree with the not Soriano vs Dunn argument. But for $4 million per year more, I think Soriano is worth it over Dunn.

vaticanplum
11-19-2006, 07:54 PM
Rotoworld is reporting that he will play centerfield and bat leadoff!!!!!!!!!!

Now that is the Cubs I know and love.

:lol:

I think Soriano will do well in Wrigley. I hate to think of him there and I agree, I hate to think of him batting against the Reds. He will probably kill Reds pitching, and i'm suddenly even gladder that our infield defense has been shored up a bit to give us some insurance against the base-stealing gazelle that is Soriano.

The move disgusts me all around, with most of that disgust related to the Yankees in some way. I still half-think of Soriano as a Yankee and when I see him in his high royal blue socks it's going to give me indigestion. And the money part too. The Yankees take all of the grief in baseball for the money they throw around, but at least they build a goddurn good team from it. The Cubs just gave an eight-year, $136 million dollar deal to Alfonso Soriano and are likely to escape heavy criticism just because they suck. Where is the logic in that? I'm not crazy about the current no-ceiling market, but I'm certainly not crazy about it when it's not even used well.

God it must suck to be a Cubs fan. There are good ones out there, and their team just constantly belittles their fandom.

Redsland
11-19-2006, 08:08 PM
If we could suddenly get our payroll into the $120 range, think what our team might look like.
No kidding. That's a lot of catchers.

:)

westofyou
11-19-2006, 08:24 PM
Who hit 8 and 9 on those teams? And he did have the pitcher hitting in front of him last year and still had more RBI than Dunn.

You have the internet, do your own legwork.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 08:45 PM
You have the internet, do your own legwork.

Already did...it was kind of a loaded question.

It is obviously not the same every game, but here are some of the answers from randomly selected games:

2001: Hit lower in order
2002: Spencer, R White, Vander Wal, Nick Johnson and Ventura
2003: N Johnson, Mondesi, Ventura, Sierra, A Boone
2004: Hit lower in order
2005: Hit lower in order
2006: Ramon Ortiz, Brian Schneider, Mike Vento, Alex Escobar

westofyou
11-19-2006, 09:01 PM
Already did...it was kind of a loaded question.

Loaded... cool, we're playing games now.

For his career

Soriano 1 RBI every 7.6 PA's - 1 Run every 6.6 PA

Dunn 1 RBI every 7.4 PA's - 1 Run every 6.4 PA

60% of Sorianos HR's have been solo for his career (57% for Dunn) and he had 2 months last year that are as scary as Dunns.

June -.207/.302/.396/.698
September - 204/.298/.343/.641

IMO the man is as much an enigma as Dunn is and boy is he getting payed a lot of cash now, and for a lonnnnnnnng time.

mth123
11-19-2006, 09:10 PM
Loaded... cool, we're playing games now.

For his career

Soriano 1 RBI every 7.6 PA's - 1 Run every 6.6 PA

Dunn 1 RBI every 7.4 PA's - 1 Run every 6.4 PA

60% of Sorianos HR's have been solo for his career (57% for Dunn) and he had 2 months last year that are as scary as Dunns.

June -.207/.302/.396/.698
September - 204/.298/.343/.641

IMO the man is as much an enigma as Dunn is and boy is he getting payed a lot of cash now, and for a lonnnnnnnng time.

And he'll be in his decline by year 3.

RFS62
11-19-2006, 09:35 PM
IMO the man is as much an enigma as Dunn is and boy is he getting payed a lot of cash now, and for a lonnnnnnnng time.



Not to mention the attitude.

letsgojunior
11-19-2006, 09:37 PM
Seriously?

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 09:49 PM
Loaded... cool, we're playing games now.

For his career

Soriano 1 RBI every 7.6 PA's - 1 Run every 6.6 PA

Dunn 1 RBI every 7.4 PA's - 1 Run every 6.4 PA

60% of Sorianos HR's have been solo for his career (57% for Dunn) and he had 2 months last year that are as scary as Dunns.

June -.207/.302/.396/.698
September - 204/.298/.343/.641

IMO the man is as much an enigma as Dunn is and boy is he getting payed a lot of cash now, and for a lonnnnnnnng time.

Talk about games...there is a lot of underlying data that you are forgetting to mention when quoting these stats.

1) 61.8% of Soriano's ABs in his career have been with the bases empty. Dunn's...56.4%.
2) June and September for Soriano were as scary as which months for Dunn? He hit .221 or under in 4 different months.
3) I realize that there are a lot of factors in scoring a run (i.e., performance of people hitting behind you), but Dunn has a career OBP of .055 higher than Soriano and all he can muster is that much of an advantage in runs per PA? Just more evidence of why OBP is overrated and why it does not automatically mean more runs scored.

If a team like Chicago has the money (which they do) then there is no reason why this contract is any worse than many of the contracts already in the game today. To lock up players now, you must give them long-term contracts like this. If I was a GM in the game today, I would frontload contracts like this to make them more attractive in the end.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 09:49 PM
And he'll be in his decline by year 3.

While AD is declining now.

Big Klu
11-19-2006, 09:55 PM
Soriano in Wrigley could become the first leadoff man to hit 50 homers. Soriano is the perfect bat for 5th or 6th where both his power and speed are valuable but his OBP issues are minimized. I would love to see the Cubbies lead him off.

Brady Anderson, 1996 Baltimore Orioles: 50 HRs

westofyou
11-19-2006, 09:59 PM
Talk about games...there is a lot of underlying data that you are forgetting to mention when quoting these stats.

There always is, it's unavoidable.



2) June and September for Soriano were as scary as which months for Dunn? He hit .221 or under in 4 different months.


While AD is declining now.

First off I don't care too much about BA, it's not on my radar as much as yours.

Second you seem to link Adam Dunn's year at age of 26 with his whole career and likewise with Soriano except he's age 30.

If you want to trumpet decline then don't forget to revisit Sorianos seasons in Texas.

westofyou
11-19-2006, 09:59 PM
Brady Anderson, 1996 Baltimore Orioles: 50 HRs

15 in the #2 slot, I looked it up earlier.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 10:01 PM
One other tidbit...Soriano's VORP was 48.2 last season while Dunn's was 23.5. I think his contract is pretty in line with Dunn's.

Big Klu
11-19-2006, 10:09 PM
15 in the #2 slot, I looked it up earlier.

Sorry. The website that I used didn't break it down by batting slot. I just knew that Brady90210 was the Orioles' primary leadoff man that year.

Likewise, if Soriano does hit 50 this year, chances are that not all of them will be in the leadoff slot--especially with the way that Lou likes to tinker with his lineups. (And I don't mean that as a slam against Lou--I think he is great. But it is a fact that he used a lot of lineups and used players in a lot of different batting slots when he managed the Reds.)

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 10:10 PM
Second you seem to link Adam Dunn's year at age of 26 with his whole career and likewise with Soriano except he's age 30.

If you want to trumpet decline then don't forget to revisit Sorianos seasons in Texas.

From Gammons' article today:


Soriano, who will be 31 in January, has ascended offensively the last three years. His OPS has risen from .808 to .821 to .911, his steals from 18 to 30 to 41, his homers from 28 to 36 to 46.

In those same years, here's some relevant Dunn statistics:

BA: .266-.247-.233
OBP: .388-.387-.365
SLG: .569-.540-.495
HR: 46-40-40

I am going off of what these two players have been doing in the recent past. Dunn obviosuly has time to turn it around, but this past year was an absolute plummet.

I may put more into BA than most people here, but it is a stat which can't be absolutely ignored. It's quite obvious that BA has value. Hits are better than walks.

vaticanplum
11-19-2006, 10:13 PM
Wait, why did this become about Soriano vs. Dunn? I love Adam Dunn and I desperately want him on the Reds, but I wouldn't give him an eight-year contract if you covered me in chicken grease and set me on fire.

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 10:14 PM
Wait, why did this become about Soriano vs. Dunn? I love Adam Dunn and I desperately want him on the Reds, but I wouldn't give him an eight-year contract if you covered me in chicken grease and set me on fire.

It was posted that Dunn's contract is a bargain compared to Soriano's.

vaticanplum
11-19-2006, 10:17 PM
It was posted that Dunn's contract is a bargain compared to Soriano's.

Oh, well, I would say it is. I would say most contracts in baseball are bargains compared to Soriano's.

It's not even the money that concerns me as much as the length of it. You just don't sign a player of that age and ability for eight years. Dunn's contract is better value because it's a far less amount of money for a far fewer number of years. It's foreseeable future. He's very likely to produce at some decent level for the next couple of years, even if it's not his best. Eight years is a bunch of question marks that increase in size year by year.

flyer85
11-19-2006, 10:19 PM
the Cubs we'll be paying him $18M when he is 39, and he may not age very gracefully.

Insane

edabbs44
11-19-2006, 10:21 PM
Oh, well, I would say it is. I would say most contracts in baseball are bargains compared to Soriano's.

It's not even the money that concerns me as much as the length of it. You just don't sign a player of that age and ability for eight years. Dunn's contract is better value because it's a far less amount of money for a far fewer number of years. It's foreseeable future. He's very likely to produce at some decent level for the next couple of years, even if it's not his best. Eight years is a bunch of question marks that increase in size year by year.

Oh, I definitely agree that the contract is too long. But when it comes to teams like the Cubs, does it really matter? This is what is necessary to get premier players nowadays. Bernie Williams had a contract like this and I wouldn't say the money paid to him at the end of it really hindered the spending of the Yankees.

Heath
11-19-2006, 10:29 PM
This contract is ARod like from the Rangers.

We all know how THAT turned out.

Soriano just made himself a Yankee again at somepoint in his career.

George Foster
11-19-2006, 10:33 PM
I read that as "If Washington gives me as much money as somebody else, I'll stay around."

If that ball you speak of weighs $134MM, fans should be thrilled that he dropped it. Soriano, might, MIGHT be worth 18 million in his best year. But they've got him for 8.

That is 1 million a month AFTER taxes for the next 8 years......wow!

Ravenlord
11-20-2006, 03:02 AM
That is 1 million a month AFTER taxes for the next 8 years......wow!

that makes me so utterly depressed....

SirFelixCat
11-20-2006, 06:15 AM
That is 1 million a month AFTER taxes for the next 8 years......wow!


Well, that added to the fact that it's a Monday...thanks:cry:


That's just absurd money.

registerthis
11-20-2006, 09:29 AM
I really have nothing to add to the chorus of people expressing shock at this deal other than "wow."

One of the more preposterous deals I have ever seen. Memo to fans of all MLB teams: remember deals like this the next time the owners cry bankruptcy. They do it to themselves.

But kudos to Soriano and his agent for getting this done. He must be thrilled.

TRF
11-20-2006, 11:11 AM
Since it was the Cubs, this is a pretty good signing. And I am not saying that because they are a division rival and I think it's a bad deal.

Soriano is a nice player. He can be an offensive force. He's got power, speed, good instincts on the basepaths. He could be a league average LF defensively.

It's a good deal because regardless of whether or not he's worth it, the Cubs can spend it and they wanted him. That kind of contract hurts a team like Cincinnati. it doesn't bother teams like the Cubs, Red Sox Yankees or Dodgers.

Even if 4 years in Soriano turns up lame, it will have been worth it to the Cubs. They don't have a bottom line for merchandise or attendance. their bottom line can be winning. If they spend a ton to field a winner, I don't think they care that much.

Heath
11-20-2006, 11:52 AM
Since it was the Cubs, this is a pretty good signing. And I am not saying that because they are a division rival and I think it's a bad deal.

Soriano is a nice player. He can be an offensive force. He's got power, speed, good instincts on the basepaths. He could be a league average LF defensively.

It's a good deal because regardless of whether or not he's worth it, the Cubs can spend it and they wanted him. That kind of contract hurts a team like Cincinnati. it doesn't bother teams like the Cubs, Red Sox Yankees or Dodgers.

Even if 4 years in Soriano turns up lame, it will have been worth it to the Cubs. They don't have a bottom line for merchandise or attendance. their bottom line can be winning. If they spend a ton to field a winner, I don't think they care that much.

But the Cubs have been trying to buy a pennant since Bill Wrigley's been around. You would think after almost 100 years of futility from a World Series win, 60 years after an NL pennant, a Steve Bartman induced bullpen blowup in '03, and combined with the red-headed step-children neighbors to the south winning a World Series, that someone in the Tribune would realize what a winning team could do.

But no - the Tribune company encourages the use of public transporation to an old park with crappy facilities and crumbling concrete to drink $8 Old Styles while drunk men try to get women to show more flesh than the local strip joint while thinking that slugging percentage is something that Dick Butkus used to do against the Packers.

Isn't that what baseball is all about?

GAC
11-20-2006, 12:03 PM
I told you all that this is the only way Lou knows how to build a team. ;)

I guarantee he had that commitment from the Tribune people before he accepted the job.

RedsManRick
11-20-2006, 12:41 PM
The interesting thing that I think is often overlooked is that at some point, "value" is irrelevant. This is especially true when you have a ton of money and the goal is only, "win", not "win while not losing money". I could build a team of amazing value that wins 65 games for under 20 million bucks every year. However, there is a finite amount of talent and I think we (particularly us stat-types) get too wrapped up in whether or not it's a good value deal.

Soriano is, in my mind, probably going to be overpaid in the last 3-4 years of this deal. However, talent wise, he's darn valuable and the Cubs are definitely a better team today than they were last week.

registerthis
11-20-2006, 01:14 PM
It's a good deal because regardless of whether or not he's worth it, the Cubs can spend it and they wanted him. That kind of contract hurts a team like Cincinnati. it doesn't bother teams like the Cubs, Red Sox Yankees or Dodgers.

But no team--not the Yankees, not the Red Sox, not the Dodgers--wants to simply waste money. There's a substantial difference between being willing to pay top dollar to top talent, and simply being frivolous.

TRF
11-20-2006, 01:52 PM
But no team--not the Yankees, not the Red Sox, not the Dodgers--wants to simply waste money. There's a substantial difference between being willing to pay top dollar to top talent, and simply being frivolous.

The Red Sox just paid 41 mill for the right to NEGOTIATE with a pitcher.

Think about that.

pedro
11-20-2006, 06:05 PM
The Red Sox just paid 41 mill for the right to NEGOTIATE with a pitcher.

Think about that.

51 million.

vaticanplum
11-20-2006, 07:14 PM
But no - the Tribune company encourages the use of public transporation to an old park with crappy facilities and crumbling concrete to drink $8 Old Styles while drunk men try to get women to show more flesh than the local strip joint while thinking that slugging percentage is something that Dick Butkus used to do against the Packers.

Isn't that what baseball is all about?

My friend, there ain't nothin wrong with public transportation, especially to a large-crowd event.

You're spot-on on the rest of it, of course.

vaticanplum
11-20-2006, 07:15 PM
The Red Sox just paid 41 mill for the right to NEGOTIATE with a pitcher.

Think about that.

Well, that's semantics. By negotiating with him they will end up paying for his services.

vaticanplum
11-20-2006, 07:16 PM
Wait, did I just defend the Red Sox?

blumj
11-20-2006, 08:11 PM
Wait, did I just defend the Red Sox?
Don't worry, you'll live. I'm pretty sure I've actually defended the Yankees once or twice in my life and managed to survive. :laugh:

TRF
11-21-2006, 12:38 AM
Well, that's semantics. By negotiating with him they will end up paying for his services.

51 mil

for the right to negotiate. Then They'll pay another what.. 10 mil a year for the guy? probably for 5 years.

After all is said and done, probably 100 mil spent for a relative unknown. And how many GREAT Japanese pitcher are there in MLB? I mean 100 mil great.

This is the difference. where the bottom line ignores money, because money isn't in the equation. 100 Mil will hurt Boston a little, but even if he's a bust, they will recover.

Because they are the Red Sox.

They sell out every game. Their merchandise is in demand.

Be cause they are a "Have."

registerthis
11-21-2006, 08:14 AM
Because they are the Red Sox.

They sell out every game. Their merchandise is in demand.

Be cause they are a "Have."

More than any of that, they have NESN, which pumps substantial $$ into the franchise. They're a regional team, and that helps up their revenues significantly.

Highlifeman21
11-21-2006, 09:02 AM
51 mil

for the right to negotiate. Then They'll pay another what.. 10 mil a year for the guy? probably for 5 years.

After all is said and done, probably 100 mil spent for a relative unknown. And how many GREAT Japanese pitcher are there in MLB? I mean 100 mil great.

This is the difference. where the bottom line ignores money, because money isn't in the equation. 100 Mil will hurt Boston a little, but even if he's a bust, they will recover.

Because they are the Red Sox.

They sell out every game. Their merchandise is in demand.

Be cause they are a "Have."

I guess I'm in the minority when it comes to thinking the 51M was just the cost of doing business for their brand and expanding their market.

That 51M doesn't count towards their salary number, so in essence it's a moot point. I'm sure the new Japanese wonder will command upwards of 15+M and probably get a 5 year deal, so the Red Sox will be on the hook for 75+ over 5 years, not 126+ over 5.

I think for the larger market teams, that 51M was a shrewd investment. If the Red Sox successfully sign Mr. Roboto, they immediately give themselves street cred and a new audience on the other side of the world. When you look at the revenue potential in Japan concerning brands (since Japan is the land of the brand name), I guarantee the Red Sox want to see more of their merchandise worn than Yankees stuff due to Hideki Matsui.

TRF
11-21-2006, 09:19 AM
I guess I'm in the minority when it comes to thinking the 51M was just the cost of doing business for their brand and expanding their market.

That 51M doesn't count towards their salary number, so in essence it's a moot point. I'm sure the new Japanese wonder will command upwards of 15+M and probably get a 5 year deal, so the Red Sox will be on the hook for 75+ over 5 years, not 126+ over 5.

the 51 mil was spent. no way do you EVER see Florida, TB, Cincinnati, Pittsurgh, Detroit, Milwaukee, Oakland, Washington, Toronto, Arizona, Colorado, or San Diego.

In fact the list of teams that MIGHT do it are NYY, NYM, BOS, and MAYBE the LAA and LAD.

Depending on the mood of Peter Angelos, it's possible BAL could try it, but it's not very likely.

Now here is a thought.

What if they pumped 51mil into domestic scouting, international scouting and their minor league system? The could get 20 times the return they will on this one guy.

The rich can afford to be long term stupid, because they are rich. Boston will have a great draft, not because they scout well, but because they might scout well, and the high draft picks that fall to the due to unreasonable bonus demands. The new CBA was a step in the right direction, but they should have capped signing bonuses.

Redsland
11-21-2006, 10:07 AM
Let someone else pay the $51 million. If the guy ends up being all that, you make a blockbuster trade for him a year or two down the road. Maybe you overpay in talent, but you keep $51 million in your pocket.

Unless, of course, $51 million doesn't mean anything to you.

TRF
11-21-2006, 10:13 AM
Unless, of course, $51 million doesn't mean anything to you.

ding ding ding

Ltlabner
11-21-2006, 10:17 AM
Unless, of course, $51 million doesn't mean anything to you.

And if the $51 million leads to $251 million in additional revenues through increased TV market share in an untaped market, additional product sales, and better scouting and player developement ties in the area, etc ?

I wouldn't mind that sort of big picture return and I'm guessing the Red Sox wouldn't either.

TRF
11-21-2006, 11:59 AM
And if the $51 million leads to $251 million in additional revenues through increased TV market share in an untaped market, additional product sales, and better scouting and player developement ties in the area, etc ?

I wouldn't mind that sort of big picture return and I'm guessing the Red Sox wouldn't either.

Except that it won't. Never really has either for any player signed. Griffey brought in increased revenue to the reds, but no where near the figure you put out there.

And KGJ was as marquee as it gets in the game over the last 30 years.

Unless I am offbase here.

Ltlabner
11-21-2006, 12:05 PM
Except that it won't. Never really has either for any player signed. Griffey brought in increased revenue to the reds, but no where near the figure you put out there.

And KGJ was as marquee as it gets in the game over the last 30 years.

Unless I am offbase here.

The Japanese market is exponitally larger than Cincinnati so even if they garner a fraction of it the numbers would be huge. And Boston has the cash to follow through with subsequent deals on TV, merchandise, publicity tours, etc to capitalize on their investment in the pitcher.

I'd much rather have 1% of the entire Japanese market than 10% of the Reds market.

TRF
11-21-2006, 12:25 PM
The Japanese market is exponitally larger than Cincinnati so even if they garner a fraction of it the numbers would be huge. And Boston has the cash to follow through with subsequent deals on TV, merchandise, publicity tours, etc to capitalize on their investment in the pitcher.

I'd much rather have 1% of the entire Japanese market than 10% of the Reds market.

The Red Sox already have NESN. And it's a pretty sweet deal. They sellout almost every game, their ticket prices are among the highest in all of baseball, and their merchandise sells.

Yeah, they could garner some of the Japan market. Maybe. If he pans out. If he is a star. Ichiro is a star. He's going to have to be an Ichiro like star.

Those guys don't show up every day. I'd pay to see Ichiro play. He's special.

I don't think anyone KNOWS for certain that this pitcher is. But for the Red Sox, it's a good gamble. If it pans out their bottom line, winning, is met. added revenue is a bonus. If not, well there will always be another FA pitcher wanting to pitch there. They will recover, recoup and move on.

That isn't possible in Pittsburgh and markets like it.

Ltlabner
11-21-2006, 12:33 PM
When I say "Japanese Market" I mean the market for Red Sox baseball in Japan. Not the NESN, ticket sales at Fenway, etc. I mean opening the door to what I'm assuming is an untapped market.

I thought I read/heard that part of their rationale for this move was using it as a stepping stone into promoting Red Sox baseball in Japan.

I may be wrong about that being their motivation, and maybe US baseball in Japan is banned or something to prevent enterence into the market so I could be totally full of it here.

I'm just saying that conceptually I would spend $51 million in a hearbeat if it gained me access to a vastly larger market that could offer significantly returns than my original investment.

TRF
11-21-2006, 12:37 PM
I kinda figured that's what you meant. My point is, the fans in Japan won't clamor for an average pitcher. They don't clamor for mediocre. The do for Ichiro.

So this guy has to be Ichiro on the mound for the Red Sox to make an impact in Japan.

But the point is, if he isn't, they'll survive it. The Reds could not.

Ltlabner
11-21-2006, 12:43 PM
I kinda figured that's what you meant. My point is, the fans in Japan won't clamor for an average pitcher. They don't clamor for mediocre. The do for Ichiro.

So this guy has to be Ichiro on the mound for the Red Sox to make an impact in Japan.

But the point is, if he isn't, they'll survive it. The Reds could not.

No they woln't. But I'd bet they clamor for the Red Sox as a team regardless of the individual player. If that's a catalysist to these other income streams, the performance of the pitcher is almost irrlevant.

Honestly, I have no idea what the efforts of teams over the years have been to tap into the market over there. Maybe the Yankees and Bo Sox already have TV chanels, merchandizing operations and other promotions going on?

TRF
11-21-2006, 02:13 PM
dunno. but the Yankees and RedSox do sell their merchandise all over the world, and sell well.

As I said though, it's the kind of risk the Red Sox can take. The Reds cannot.