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View Full Version : Danys Baez as closer?



savafan
11-20-2006, 11:39 AM
Rotoworld mentioned that Baez wants the opportunity to close, and listed the Reds, Royals, and Marlins as his possible destinations. Thoughts?

VI_RedsFan
11-20-2006, 12:09 PM
I think he would be a good target. I just hope he's not really asking for 3 years 21 million like Gammons said.

RedsManRick
11-20-2006, 12:22 PM
Baez strikes me as sort of your classic "talent to be a middle reliever, but can handle a closer role" type -- like David Weathers. He'll strike a few guys out, has decent control, and keeps the ball in the yard. In this market, if we can get him at 6MM or so, I'd be fine with that.

Newman4
11-20-2006, 12:31 PM
.711 OPS in a down year last year. Sub-.700 OPS the three years previous. Saved 41 in 2005. Doesn't walk a lot of batters. I wouldn't complain if they signed him.

Redus
11-20-2006, 12:59 PM
He's bears watching. I'd like to see him here.

Kc61
11-20-2006, 01:21 PM
Reds' signing of Stanton means the pen now is:

Stanton, Cormier, Bray -- left
Majewski, Belisle (unless he starts), Coffey -- right

I see a right handed closer in the future. Can't see 4 lefties in the pen. Baez seems to make sense.

fewfirstchoice
11-20-2006, 01:25 PM
I can see signing Baez to a 3 year 15-18 million deal,and would be really excited about it.

Highlifeman21
11-20-2006, 01:27 PM
I don't see Cincinnati being attractive for Baez, unless we throw a lot of money at him.

I don't support throwing a lot of money at Baez, we have other needs before a closer, mainly a #3 starter.

Puffy
11-20-2006, 01:31 PM
no, no, no!

Baez is a classic Danny Graves with more stuff closer. He implodes about once a week. Great stuff, looks unhittable sometimes, but has severe mental lapses quite often.

As a middle reliever I'd love the guy. As a closer too much stress for us fans.

savafan
11-20-2006, 01:35 PM
As a middle reliever I'd love the guy. As a closer too much stress for us fans.

But is he better than what we already have in-house?

fewfirstchoice
11-20-2006, 01:43 PM
Baez is worth 5 or 6 million a year.He has saved over 40 games in a season and throws hard.He gets wild on occassion but what closer doesnt.Baez is worth taking a shot at if the money is right.Nothing over 6 million a year and no more than 3 years.

Redus
11-20-2006, 02:33 PM
I see Octavio Dotel in our future.....

fewfirstchoice
11-20-2006, 02:55 PM
Dotel isnt a bad option either.He would probably come cheaper.

savafan
11-20-2006, 03:04 PM
Dotel couldn't cut it as the closer in Houston though...

fewfirstchoice
11-20-2006, 03:11 PM
Your right fan,but hes better than anyone we have now.

oneupper
11-20-2006, 06:20 PM
Dotel isnt a bad option either.He would probably come cheaper.

Dotel has pitched only 25innings in the last two years. I'll take Weathers back WAY before I take a flyer on Dotel. He could be done for good.

BigRed
11-20-2006, 07:52 PM
I think the market is completely out of whack right now. Someone will likely give Baez 6 mil a year or more. I think we overpaid for Stanton, but you can't sit around and do nothing. I really think that the next closer will be by committee of Stanton and Coffey or they will trade for someone no one even thought of.

edabbs44
11-20-2006, 10:24 PM
Get the starters first...then the closer.

Shaknb8k
11-20-2006, 10:38 PM
Its going to come down to if he wants to close somewhere or if he wants the money. Reds have a closers spot for him but probably wont offer the money he wants. There are plenty of teams that will probably give him the money but more as a setup man than a closer. That is if the Reds are even looking at him.

dunner13
11-20-2006, 10:56 PM
I still think bray would do just as good of a job in the closer role as baez would. Use the money to sign a SP.

BigRed
11-20-2006, 11:23 PM
I agree that we definitely need some more starters, but a team that can't close the door in the 9th really struggles. If you remember, bringing in Guardado was a real shot in the arm this year. A great closer cannot be underestimated.

mbgrayson
11-21-2006, 01:22 AM
A great closer cannot be underestimated.

Don't you mean overestimated?

Those of you who read "Moneyball" may remember how Billy Beane 'created' closers.

As Lewis puts it: "Established closers were systematically overpriced, in large part because of the statistic by which closers were judged in the marketplace: 'saves.' The very word made the guy who achieved them seem vitally important.... You could take a slightly above average pitcher and drop him into the closer's role, let him accumulate some gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off. You could, in essence, buy a stock, pump it up with false publicity, and sell it off for much more than you paid for it."

Jpup
11-21-2006, 07:50 AM
I'm scared of signing a guy that lists the Reds, Royals, and Marlins as interests. Sounds like he wants very little stress.

edabbs44
11-21-2006, 08:54 AM
Don't you mean overestimated?

Those of you who read "Moneyball" may remember how Billy Beane 'created' closers.

As Lewis puts it: "Established closers were systematically overpriced, in large part because of the statistic by which closers were judged in the marketplace: 'saves.' The very word made the guy who achieved them seem vitally important.... You could take a slightly above average pitcher and drop him into the closer's role, let him accumulate some gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off. You could, in essence, buy a stock, pump it up with false publicity, and sell it off for much more than you paid for it."

And then Beane drafted Street. Is he going to claim that he created Huston also?

In all seriousness, I think Street has a point. The Reds had some good years with Brantley and Shaw, who weren't purebreds by any stretch. But I think the Reds need to focus on the people who will get them a lead instead of the one who will hold the lead in the 9th inning right now. If they drop $6 million per year on a closer, that will be extremely disappointing. I'd rather get a starter and try Coffey out again. More experience...you never know.

Newman4
11-23-2006, 09:35 AM
Again, Baez has good OPS against numbers (Moneyball fans?) plus has closer experience. In all of 2004 and 2005 he only blew 11 saves while saving 71 with ERAs of 3.57 and 2.86 respectively. Averages about 1 HR every 10 innings pitched lifetime. IMO, he's worth the money as a closer. The question is how much of a priority is filling the closer role?

Redsland
11-23-2006, 12:39 PM
Get the starters first...then the closer.
Good start, but I'd amend that to:

Get the starters first...then some thump...then call it a day.

Redsfan08
11-23-2006, 04:50 PM
didnt he make it to the all-star game like 2 yrs ago

Phhhl
11-23-2006, 09:25 PM
Dotel couldn't cut it as the closer in Houston though...

Dotel never had a stretch like Brad Lidge suffered through in 2006. Houston traded him before he started having arm problems, but he was a pretty good closer for them. I'd take a shot on him or Baez. This would be pretty good pen with both.

Will M
11-23-2006, 09:52 PM
Can you say with any reliability that Baez will be any better than Bray ( or Coffey ) as a closer in 2007? Right now I am ok with our pen. We have other issues that are higher priority: #3 starter & righty hitting 1B.

Scrap Irony
11-23-2006, 10:30 PM
I'd drop in one of the failed fifth starters as closer. Lohse could close games, as could (IMO) Ramirez. Both have good enough stuff to make due.

Highlifeman21
11-23-2006, 10:40 PM
I'd drop in one of the failed fifth starters as closer. Lohse could close games, as could (IMO) Ramirez. Both have good enough stuff to make due.

I hope Ramirez never finds the mound for the Reds again.

He's worse than Eric Milton. Let me say that again. He's worse than Eric Milton.

I'm with ya on Lohse though. I think if he fails in our rotation, he could be a viable option as closer. The problem is that I doubt Lohse thinks he's anything but a starter.

As for Baez, I thought he was being groomed to be the next closer in Cleveland after the 2002 season, and then 5 years and 3 teams later, he's now a FA. He has 111 career saves in 143 SVO. A 77.6% save conversion rate doesn't strike me as earth shattering, nor something we should throw anything more than 3+M per year. Problem is that I doubt Baez would sign for less than 3M. For whatever reason, in 2006, Danys Baez forgot how to pitch. Do we want to pay for that?

Redsfan08
11-24-2006, 01:38 AM
I'd love baez

Handofdeath
11-24-2006, 04:51 AM
I'd drop in one of the failed fifth starters as closer. Lohse could close games, as could (IMO) Ramirez. Both have good enough stuff to make due.

The Reds have been "making do" at too many positions for too long. As far as Lohse goes with a new pitching coach he might be able to be that #3/4 starter. His stats with the Reds weren't all that bad. The stats of other #3's in the NL aren't exactly that impressive. I would sign Baez. He's had some success and proven himself as a closer.

dunner13
11-24-2006, 09:00 AM
Baez is an average closer at best. Billy Bray has the stuff to be an average closer right now. So put bray as the closer and take the 7 million you would have given to baez and give that to a SP. Closers are very valuable but to inconsistent to throw alot of money for a long time at. We are only talking about pitching one inning, for maybe 80 innings for the whole year. Yes some guys dont have the mental makeup to do a good job but alot of guys can be at least average closers, like david weathers, Scott Schoenwiess, the loved Danny Graves. None of these guys were dominant yet they got the job done, bray has better stuff then all of them so just give him the job and spend the money someplace else.

mth123
11-24-2006, 09:45 AM
I wouldn't mind signing Baez if the $ are reasonable if only to establish some roles in the pen. If Bray or Coffey step-up later, Baez could always be traded. If the money would stop them from getting a starter then maybe not. I'm just not sure it will make a difference in this market. It might be easier to get a starter trading from bullpen depth than a signing. There's only a couple guys I'd want anyway. Baez for 2 years at $4 Million per or so is a safer bet than most of the starters. It would be a moveable contract. Contracts for starters we want would not be moved easily and why give $ for ham and eggers like we already have.

dunner13
11-24-2006, 09:48 AM
The problem is you wont get baez at 2 years for 4 million a year. It will probably take 3 or 4 years at 7 -8 million a year. Way to much money for an inconsisitent closer like baez.

mth123
11-24-2006, 10:00 AM
The problem is you wont get baez at 2 years for 4 million a year. It will probably take 3 or 4 years at 7 -8 million a year. Way to much money for an inconsisitent closer like baez.

If it takes that much money I pass. Who is going to pay that much? I don't see it. Have you heard or read anything like that? Seeing the Speier and Walker contracts you may be right but I don't see any team giving him that.

Chip R
11-24-2006, 10:03 AM
The problem is you wont get baez at 2 years for 4 million a year. It will probably take 3 or 4 years at 7 -8 million a year. Way to much money for an inconsisitent closer like baez.


I'm afraid you're right. $7-8M may be a bit high but not by too much.

Z-Fly
11-24-2006, 01:53 PM
The problem is you wont get baez at 2 years for 4 million a year. It will probably take 3 or 4 years at 7 -8 million a year. Way to much money for an inconsisitent closer like baez.

Let me see if I understand this, Anybody worth anything costs to much... So don't sign anyone? :confused:

Looks like we are goosed. :angry:

Tigs
11-24-2006, 01:56 PM
What about Keith Foulke? I know he had a bad year last year but maybe he needs a change of scenery or place where there is less pressure than Boston. Thoughts?

Highlifeman21
11-24-2006, 03:47 PM
Let me see if I understand this, Anybody worth anything costs to much... So don't sign anyone? :confused:

Looks like we are goosed. :angry:

It's called fiscal responsibility for an organization. So far this offseason, the Dodgers and Angels have given us prime examples of what NOT to do. Just b/c the market may reward Baez upwards of 7+M per doesn't mean he's worth that contract, especially as a Red.

Just b/c the Reds will probably have a payroll in the 75M range doesn't mean we need to have 1/10th of that go to a closer.

thatcoolguy_22
11-24-2006, 04:08 PM
It's called fiscal responsibility for an organization. So far this offseason, the Dodgers and Angels have given us prime examples of what NOT to do. Just b/c the market may reward Baez upwards of 7+M per doesn't mean he's worth that contract, especially as a Red.

Just b/c the Reds will probably have a payroll in the 75M range doesn't mean we need to have 1/10th of that go to a closer.


Very well put.

Think of it this way...

We had 5 guys split 35 saves out of a possible 68 save opportunies. We only converted 51% of SVO. If we had a Trevor Hoffman in his prime so o say we would have converted roughly 57 saves at a rate of 85% of saves converted. Now Baez will NOT be a hoffman type pitcher but if he could convert 65-70% of the time he could have anywhere for 44-47 saves if he was ran out for every save opportunity. Quick math would give us an additional 9 to 12 wins... These figures are not perfect but I think it would be helpful to have 1/10 or so of our budget on a closer! He could very possibly make us into a contender IMO

Hoosier Red
11-24-2006, 04:23 PM
The problem is save opportunities aren't just the closer. The best closer close out roughly 85-90%.

If Arroyo takes a 3-1 lead into the 8th but the "set up man" blows the lead than that would be one of the save opportunities blown. Spending $7 million on Baez doesn't fix that.

thatcoolguy_22
11-24-2006, 04:25 PM
True he doesn't fix that but we could take our current "closers" and instead of them blowing the lead in the 9th or later theycould do it an inning earlier... :)

Mario-Rijo
11-24-2006, 04:52 PM
Originally posted by Highlifeman21
Just b/c the market may reward Baez upwards of 7+M per doesn't mean he's worth that contract, especially as a Red.





I wonder though if the teams that are willing to sign him to close would actually pay less than what the market calls for, for his services seeing as how he would rather close. It would seem to me that the bigger market teams that have established closers would like to sign him to have him set-up. Because if it was simply a matter of money wouldn't L.A. already re-signed him?

Teams that need a closer: Who do not have a logical solution already.
Us
Tampa Bay
Marlins

Teams that maybe want a Closer but have some other options:
Boston: Craig Hansen (but he is unproven)
Chicago: Ryan Dempster (Uggh); Re-signing Kerry Wood
K.C.: Ambiorix Burgos (Dbl Uggh)
Cleveland (They have Carmona, but not good enough for a wannabe contender)

I know Both Boston and Cleveland have been in touch. I would imagine that he is out of the Fla. clubs price range. And I believe we arguably have as good a IF defense as either Cleveland or Boston. He fits us the best IMHO. But if he wants more than 2-3 yrs or 5mill per yr then perhaps we go and sign Joe Borowski who should come cheaper unless he signs elsewhere as a set-up man (quite possible).

What I find interesting is that there seems to be more possible closers available than there are jobs to be had.

Baez
Borowski
Foulke (No thanks)
Gagne (Ditto)
Dotel (Umm, maybe)
Hermanson (another maybe)
Kolb (Only if we can hire Mike Maddux)
Herges (this is real bad)
Hawkins (Not really a closer)
Mesa (Not the best but far from the worst)
Riske (This is an intriguing possibility)
Rhodes (I can find worse)
Weathers (Just not a closer)
Percival (Career Over)
Williamson (Willy isn't the worst scenario but likely not a fit, must throw strikes)

My picks in order would be:
David Riske
Danys Baez
Joe Borowski
Octavio Dotel
Jose Mesa
Arthur Rhodes
Dustin Hermanson (If healthy he would go to #2 on my list perhaps even #1)
Dan Kolb
Scott Williamson (I'd give him a shot, with a short leash)

dunner13
11-25-2006, 04:15 PM
"Borowski is also receiving interest from the Phillies, Indians, Red Sox, Giants and Blue Jays. Still, he's probably going to be an easier sign that Baez, who is reportedly looking for $7 million per year." - rotoworld.com

Here is where they are saying baez is looking for 7 a year. Way to much in my opinion.

Highlifeman21
11-25-2006, 06:41 PM
Very well put.

Think of it this way...

We had 5 guys split 35 saves out of a possible 68 save opportunies. We only converted 51% of SVO. If we had a Trevor Hoffman in his prime so o say we would have converted roughly 57 saves at a rate of 85% of saves converted. Now Baez will NOT be a hoffman type pitcher but if he could convert 65-70% of the time he could have anywhere for 44-47 saves if he was ran out for every save opportunity. Quick math would give us an additional 9 to 12 wins... These figures are not perfect but I think it would be helpful to have 1/10 or so of our budget on a closer! He could very possibly make us into a contender IMO


IIRC Baez has converted 77% of his career SVO. I'm not gonna pay 7+M for 77%.

IIRC Baez only broke the 40 SV mark once, had something like 41. He's not the type of guy who will go out and give us 45+ SV. Now if we gave Baez 68 opportunities, his career average says he'd shut the door 52 times. Baez just isn't that kinda closer.

Spend the 7+M on a #3 SP, or a bigger bat for the OF.

jmac
11-25-2006, 08:07 PM
IIRC Baez has converted 77% of his career SVO. I'm not gonna pay 7+M for 77%.

IIRC Baez only broke the 40 SV mark once, had something like 41. He's not the type of guy who will go out and give us 45+ SV. Now if we gave Baez 68 opportunities, his career average says he'd shut the door 52 times. Baez just isn't that kinda closer.

Spend the 7+M on a #3 SP, or a bigger bat for the OF.

agreed.
many times its not the "best of the best" but settling for the "best of the rest" in the free agent world.Baez is not a top tier closer but because of the possibilities out there ...bingo...he will more than likely get huge contract.
as you stated , i think the money could be better spent.

blumj
11-25-2006, 08:55 PM
IIRC Baez has converted 77% of his career SVO.
Is that 77% including blown saves when he was being used to set up, not close? Because not making that distinction can really make a reliever look worse than he is.

Highlifeman21
11-25-2006, 09:01 PM
Is that 77% including blown saves when he was being used to set up, not close? Because not making that distinction can really make a reliever look worse than he is.

From 2003 until 2005, he was a "closer". In that time he was 96 for 117, which is an 82% conversion rate.

In 2006 he had 16 SVO for the Dodgers, but only recorded 9 SV. 56%, stellar.

Something happened to Danys Baez in 2006. He forgot how to pitch.

Handofdeath
11-26-2006, 03:13 AM
IIRC Baez has converted 77% of his career SVO. I'm not gonna pay 7+M for 77%.

IIRC Baez only broke the 40 SV mark once, had something like 41. He's not the type of guy who will go out and give us 45+ SV. Now if we gave Baez 68 opportunities, his career average says he'd shut the door 52 times. Baez just isn't that kinda closer.

Spend the 7+M on a #3 SP, or a bigger bat for the OF.

Baez spent 2004 and 2005 pitching for the Devil Rays and had 71 saves. The Devil Rays lost more than 90 games both seasons. In 2005, his best season, he converted 34 out of his last 36 save opportunities and ended up with an ERA of 2.86. To put up those kind of numbers for a team like the Devil Rays is astonishing, especially when you consider the teams he pitched against in the AL East. I think the Reds signing Baez would be a great idea. As far as last year's numbers, he didn't pitch after August 22. He was having trouble before that for about 2 months. It was his appendix.

The_jbh
11-26-2006, 03:43 PM
If you can get Baez for 5mil per year I say lock it up. He is a serviceable closer. The reason Guardado made such a large impact is not only was he reliable (and i think Baez can be just as reliable) but he pushed other guys out of the closer role into set up. Coffey got to be a set up guy rather than a closer, weathers didnt have to worry about closing, Bray could be a set up man. Signing Baez would make the bullpen solid all around

Closer Baez
Set up Coffey Bray Stanton
Middle Relief Belisle Majewski

Assuming Majewski returns to even semi normal, thats a GOOD bullpen.

We aren;t going to sign a starter, we'll be trading for one so i dont think the arguement that we can spend money on a thumper (unless we wanna bring Guillen back in town which im not opposd to) is a valid one. I think Baez helps us have a guy that has saved 40 games before, and makes our bullpen all around better because he pushes guys roles down.

with that said, i wouldn't throw 7mil per at him...

i'd say 17 over 3 would be the best i'd give him
5.0 in 2007 5.5 in 2008, 6.5 in 2009 maybe?

reds44
11-26-2006, 04:08 PM
I'd definatley take Baez. He would be your closer, and you would have your bullpen set for 2007.

Then you could focus on getting a CIF/OF like Perez or Wilson, and getting 1 more SP.

reds44
11-26-2006, 04:10 PM
I agree that we definitely need some more starters, but a team that can't close the door in the 9th really struggles. If you remember, bringing in Guardado was a real shot in the arm this year. A great closer cannot be underestimated.
Agreed. A great closer allows you to mix and match with the rest of your bullpen.

The_jbh
11-26-2006, 04:18 PM
Agreed. A great closer allows you to mix and match with the rest of your bullpen.

I don think Baez is gonna be a great closer but I think he'll be a good one and that will allow the bullpen to be mixed and matched correctly. yes COffey or Bray potentially could be average closers but their true roles are as set up men and Baez allows them to be in their optimal role

BoydsOfSummer
11-26-2006, 11:20 PM
Looks like Baez might be off the market.


www.baseballdigestdaily.com

November 26, 2006



News and Notes

- According to club sources, the Orioles have agreed in principal to a three-year deal with Atlanta Braves free-agent reliever Danys Baez

- Ken Rosenthal from FoxSports.com is reporting that the Dodgers are close to signing former Phillies pitcher, Randy Wolf. The deal will most likely be around 2 years for $12-13 million.

- Rumors continue to swirl speculating that the Red Sox and J.D. Drew are close to a deal that could be announced within the next week.

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 11:43 PM
Looks like Baez might be off the market.


www.baseballdigestdaily.com

November 26, 2006



News and Notes

- According to club sources, the Orioles have agreed in principal to a three-year deal with Atlanta Braves free-agent reliever Danys Baez

- Ken Rosenthal from FoxSports.com is reporting that the Dodgers are close to signing former Phillies pitcher, Randy Wolf. The deal will most likely be around 2 years for $12-13 million.

- Rumors continue to swirl speculating that the Red Sox and J.D. Drew are close to a deal that could be announced within the next week.


Just as I said: teams aren't waiting for the GM meetings to pluck up FAs.

Shaknb8k
11-26-2006, 11:57 PM
Rotoworld is reporting all that now too