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Jpup
11-20-2006, 01:59 PM
What are your opinions on Aaron Harang being signed to a 3 or 4 year contract extension? Is it not about time that Krivsky gets going on this? Maybe it's too early is the off season but I would really like to see something done before the end of the year. He's the best pitcher the Reds have had in years and years, it's time to lock him up before he gets the chance to skip town. Maybe something like 4 years at about 28-30 million? I know that sounds outrageous, but it might take something close to that to lock him up.

thoughts?

redsmetz
11-20-2006, 02:02 PM
What makes you think talks aren't underway already? I think they'll definitely talk LTC with him.

Jpup
11-20-2006, 02:03 PM
What makes you think talks aren't underway already? I think they'll definitely talk LTC with him.

nothing, I'm just nervous about it, I guess. I have no reason to believe either way.

westofyou
11-20-2006, 02:08 PM
3 years tops, any contract to a pitcher above 3 is a risk.

Jpup
11-20-2006, 02:12 PM
3 years tops, any contract to a pitcher above 3 is a risk.

what kind of money do you think he would get? 3 years at about 20 or would that be low?

TOBTTReds
11-20-2006, 02:52 PM
I don't think your 3/20 is a bad deal, because it will likely be a raise for 07, and possibly 08. In 07, he will make around $5 mil I believe after arb, then maybe 7 mil the next. He might want more, like around 23-24 mil for three years. In this market, he would be dumb not ask for more if he was going to sign a long term deal. By 09, as a free agent IIRC, he should net in $12 mil range if he keeps up his pitching (including inflation).

RedLegSuperStar
11-20-2006, 03:17 PM
3 years for 25 wouldn't bother me.. he's worth it. Definatly the most consistant pitcher we have.

Redsland
11-20-2006, 03:23 PM
He's about to go into his second arbitration season, so we have his rights for '07 and '08. That gives us two years to negotiate with him.

Me? I'd certainly try to lock him up now (three years plus a club option or two), but if inflation pushes his price tag too high, I might wait to see if his stock drops, and then buy low.

Either way, I'd certainly make a run at him, because he's made me a believer.

lollipopcurve
11-20-2006, 03:48 PM
3 years for 25 wouldn't bother me.

Won't be nearly enough is my guess. The market is zooming upwards...

RedsManRick
11-20-2006, 03:52 PM
Unless we think the pitching market is going to go up next year, or that Harang will have a break out legitimate Cy Young year, I'm not sure that locking him up now is the smartest move. The advantage of those contracts is payroll stability and hedging against an inflated arb value. We've still got his rights for 2 years and unless we think we gain value, there's no reason to take the risk of a guaranteed contract. If he goes to arbitration asking for 8MM or more, well, then maybe it makes a bit more sense.

Johnny Footstool
11-20-2006, 04:18 PM
Unless we think the pitching market is going to go up next year, or that Harang will have a break out legitimate Cy Young year, I'm not sure that locking him up now is the smartest move. The advantage of those contracts is payroll stability and hedging against an inflated arb value. We've still got his rights for 2 years and unless we think we gain value, there's no reason to take the risk of a guaranteed contract. If he goes to arbitration asking for 8MM or more, well, then maybe it makes a bit more sense.

He'll get at least $8 million in arbitration, probably more. I'd offer three years at $8 million per year.

vaticanplum
11-20-2006, 08:17 PM
I had a dream last night that he ended up a free agent and went to the Yankees. I crap you not.

RedsBaron
11-20-2006, 08:28 PM
He'll get at least $8 million in arbitration, probably more. I'd offer three years at $8 million per year.

Yes. I'd go 4 years at $8 million a year.

mth123
11-20-2006, 10:32 PM
Lock him up now. All everyone wants to do is trade the farm for mediocre pitching and when we get a good one we need to keep it. Things are going to be pretty ugly in 2007. Better lock him up before the thoughts of leaving start dancing in his head (if its not too late now.)

IMO Harang is better than any pitcher on the market this year except for possibly Jason Schmidt and he has him beat in the age and health categories.

WMR
11-20-2006, 10:36 PM
4 years at 8 mill. per would be a steal, IMO.

He seems to enjoy playing for Cincinnati.

Keeping him in the fold should be one of Krivsky's top priorities.

A Harang-Arroyo-Bailey 1,2,3 has an awfully nice ring to it! :) :D

alexad
11-21-2006, 12:52 AM
Harang is the ace of this staff so he needs to get ace type money. 8 to 10 mil would be a good starting point.

Redsland
11-21-2006, 10:59 AM
After the season he just had, Aaron might be thinking that $8MM per isn't quite enough.

If he puts together another season like the one he just had, he'll definitely think $8MM isn't enough.

Johnny Footstool
11-21-2006, 11:26 AM
After the season he just had, Aaron might be thinking that $8MM per isn't quite enough.

If he puts together another season like the one he just had, he'll definitely think $8MM isn't enough.

Yeah, the more I think about it, I'd start at $8 million and be prepared to pay $10 million.

Wheelhouse
11-21-2006, 11:46 AM
Gets better every year. Injury free. Low impact delivery. Young. What's to ask?

Jpup
12-09-2006, 07:57 PM
did anyone ask Krivsky at Redsfest, if they are planning on locking up Harang?

mth123
12-09-2006, 08:11 PM
Yeah, the more I think about it, I'd start at $8 million and be prepared to pay $10 million.

Me too and two weeks ago that might have got him. I have to think Gil Meche moved the cost up.

Gallen5862
12-10-2006, 12:03 AM
It would be a good time to at least go 1 year beyond his arbitration years. 8 to 10 million per year would be a good starting point. He might be able to get more but he really isn't sure yet. Another great year he might want 12 million or more a year.

dsmith421
12-10-2006, 05:04 AM
I'm usually very wary of long-term deals, but I'd offer Aaron 5 years and 50 million. The guy is durable, misses bats, has pretty damned good stuff. In my view, he's our best player and by far most valuable commodity. If he'll commit to the town that gave him a chance, I'd be all over it.

GAC
12-10-2006, 05:12 AM
3 years for 25 wouldn't bother me.. he's worth it. Definatly the most consistant pitcher we have.

If we can give it to Milton, then Harang is certainly worth it.

This FO has to be seriously considering this while looking at the price of pitchers in this current FA market.

I'm sure Harang's agent is. ;)

jmcclain19
12-10-2006, 05:12 AM
The Adam Dunn Contract of last year Krivsky did set the bar.

I'd expect the same type of deal - two year deal with a club option year for the third - with some player tilted perks on that third year.

If Harang doesn't sign that type of deal, I'd say his days a Red are numbered.

Harang's deal is probably the most important contract the Reds could sign this offseason IMO.

Don't forget - Harang is out from the Reds control after '08, as is Bronson Arroyo & Adam Dunn - it's a very interesting time coming up, a crossroads if you will.

GAC
12-10-2006, 05:17 AM
Harang's deal is probably the most important contract the Reds could sign this offseason IMO.

Absolutely. And if the Reds were to have come home from those meetings with a Suppan, Weaver, or Lily at 4 -5 years for around 40 Mil, then what do you think Aaron's agent is gonna do, who had a pretty solid year in 06?

Which possibly could be one of the reasons why the Reds haven't entered into this spending frenzy for FA pitchers this winter. ;)

Harang and Arroyo's agent are watching.


Don't forget - Harang is out from the Reds control after '08, as is Bronson Arroyo & Adam Dunn - it's a very interesting time coming up, a crossroads if you will.

If these are your "building blocks" then this is where you need to commit the money. All relatively young players.

We are free from Milton's contract after this next season, and then Jr's after 08 (with a 4 Mil buyout).

Aronchis
12-10-2006, 05:28 AM
Arroyo a building block, hardly.

I have a feeling Arroyo is going to disappoint MANY around here next year and not for his failing by any means.

Johnny Footstool
12-11-2006, 10:50 AM
Arroyo a building block, hardly.

I have a feeling Arroyo is going to disappoint MANY around here next year and not for his failing by any means.

Is he releasing an album of children's songs or something?

corkedbat
12-11-2006, 11:28 AM
Given the recent signings, I'd say you'd be very lucky to get away with 3 years $30-32M with a club option for about $12-13M. I'd also say if Arroyo has a repeat season you'll hear from him too.

Spring~Fields
12-11-2006, 01:47 PM
If Harang doesn't sign that type of deal, I'd say his days a Red are numbered.

Harang's deal is probably the most important contract the Reds could sign this offseason IMO.

Don't forget - Harang is out from the Reds control after '08, as is Bronson Arroyo & Adam Dunn - it's a very interesting time coming up, a crossroads if you will.


If the Reds current players have agents looking, then I can see them wringing their hands with eyes wide open to the potential of huge paydays just ahead with very long terms attached, now would be the time for their agents to hold the Reds up big time.

I can see Harang getting some very nice arbitration contracts and then eventually testing the free agent market to move on to a winning team with a huge long term contract. Dunn will be at 13 million looking to be traded before the Reds lose him, and Arroyo if he has continued success knowing that he took a bad contract in Boston will certainly be wanting to make up for lost dollars and a chance to be with a team that he believes can win. Milton will be gone and Griffey will be on his way.

I just can’t see the Reds being able to afford these guys with the cost of contracts going up and the length of terms being such that the Reds can’t afford the risk, they haven’t been able to afford the cost of players this off season.

The competitors will still be out there like the large market teams are now waiting to snatch them up.
The cost of doing business will be even higher as time goes by.

Most everyone seems to agree that the Reds with six straight losing seasons have a lot of holes to fill.

What will the Reds do if they have to replace Dunn, Griffey, Milton, Harang and Arroyo all within two years? Firesale before then?

Aronchis
12-11-2006, 01:49 PM
Is he releasing an album of children's songs or something?

Nope just a solid regression.

If the Reds resign Dunn and Harang, who cares what happens to Griffey,Arroyo and Milton(lol).

edabbs44
12-11-2006, 01:56 PM
The way this roster is headed...I'd rather them dangle Harang for a boatload of prospects at the deadline if/when they are out of it. If you can't afford decent starters to back him up then what's the point?

Johnny Footstool
12-11-2006, 02:01 PM
The way this roster is headed...I'd rather them dangle Harang for a boatload of prospects at the deadline if/when they are out of it. If you can't afford decent starters to back him up then what's the point?

Arroyo first -- his contract is up sooner, and he's definitely bound for free agency.

I'd negotiate with Harang for as long as possible.

edabbs44
12-11-2006, 02:05 PM
Arroyo first -- his contract is up sooner, and he's definitely bound for free agency.

I'd negotiate with Harang for as long as possible.

Oh, Arroyo definitely. Maybe even now. We're due to hear the thud of him coming back to Earth in about May.

I think Harang is a stud, so no one get me wrong. it's just that he can't do it by himself. So giving him $35 million to be in 4th place is kind of a waste.

deltachi8
12-11-2006, 02:12 PM
3 years, $26M (7.5, 9, 9.5)

RBA
12-11-2006, 02:39 PM
6 years at 60 million with a 4 million buyout clause on the 5th year and a 2 million buyout on the 6th year.

Spring~Fields
12-11-2006, 02:51 PM
6 years at 60 million with a 4 million buyout clause on the 5th year and a 2 million buyout on the 6th year.

You might be in the ballpark on the dollar amount per season.


Woody Williams, 2 years, 12.5 million - 6.25 mil
Randy Wolf, 1 year, 8 million
Adam Eaton, 3 years, 24.5 million - 8.16 mil
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs, four years, $40 million - 10 mil
Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals, five years, $55 million - 11 mil
Vincent Padilla, 3 years, 33,750,000 - 11.25
Mussina, 2 years, 23 million - 11.5 mil


What pitchers would their agents think they are comparable to?

Current per espn:
Kyle Lohse 3,950,000
Bronson Arroyo 3,000,000
Aaron Harang 2,350,000

edabbs44
12-11-2006, 02:53 PM
6 years at 60 million with a 4 million buyout clause on the 5th year and a 2 million buyout on the 6th year.

You think he would sign for less per year than Meche?

BRM
12-13-2006, 06:10 PM
From today's Enquirer.


Krivsky said the Reds and Harang haven't had any discussions about a long-term contract recently.

"But that's something we'll probably get to later this winter," Krivsky said.

Johnny Footstool
12-13-2006, 06:17 PM
Krivsky said the Reds and Harang haven't had any discussions about a long-term contract recently.

"But that's something we'll probably get to later this winter," Krivsky said.

Yeah, Wayne. Put it off and focus on what's really important -- getting Bubba Crosby and Chad Moeller.

BRM
12-13-2006, 06:19 PM
Yeah, Wayne. Put it off and focus on what's really important -- getting Bubba Crosby and Chad Moeller.

Critical pieces of the puzzle...