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registerthis
11-21-2006, 08:08 AM
So do you suppose they really send cash? Back up the Brinks truck and unload multiple bag o' moneys at the Royals offices with Barney Fife armed guards and shotguns. Have the receptionist sign for it?

I wonder about these things.

Actually, I picture Castellini fumbling around for his wallet, looking for the Platinum AmEx card that he can charge the $250k to.

redsmetz
11-21-2006, 08:18 AM
So do you suppose they really send cash? Back up the Brinks truck and unload multiple bag o' moneys at the Royals offices with Barney Fife armed guards and shotguns. Have the receptionist sign for it?

I wonder about these things.


No, Barney and his sort have been replaced by EFT's (and that's not Extra Feet Taken on one's secondary lead) - Electronic Fund Transfers. You don't even get the good old check to look at for a moment. The numbers just change in your bank account.

Highlifeman21
11-21-2006, 08:41 AM
And the Reds sent $1M to the Pirates to cover Casey and Freel signed an extension and Valentin signed an extension and LaRue signed an extension and Aurilia signed a deal.

That's $6.7M right there. That doesn't even cover arbitration raises for Kearns, Lopez and Harang.

Two weeks after Casey was traded, Ramon Ortiz and his $3.55M salary was released. Explain to me why that wasn't the money used to pay Dunn. You could just as plausibly argue that the money the had gone to D'Angelo Jiminez was what paid for Adam Dunn.

What I think paid for Adam Dunn was Bob Castellini coming to town and hiring Wayne Krivsky, who then did the smart thing and locked up the 40-homer guy before his market went into the stratosphere. The Reds payroll at the start of 2006 was $1M less than at the start of 2005 and that's after Bronson Arroyo and his $3M contract came to town. We know league revenues were up. The team surely planned to make to make more money in 2006 than in 2005 too (something that surely happened between ticket price, other ballpark item and attendance increases).

So it seems to me Casey was neglible in any move the team made. It had the resources to do everything it did regardless of whether Casey was on the team.

I guess I never really looked the whole series of events like that. Thank you for helping me see things a little differently, M2. If I gather what you're saying about the Casey dump, then by the same token are you saying we had resources and didn't need to dump LaRue? If I read all of your posts wrong, I apologize, but that's my take on what you said.

My question to you is, would the Reds have been a better team with Casey at 1B in 2006 than Hatteberg, and by how much did Williams hurt us beyond belief?

I guess I'm wrong to think that LaRue wasn't worth 5.2M, but seeing some of the crazy contracts being thrown around lately, maybe he was actually a bargain.

VR
11-21-2006, 09:13 AM
"You're No. 1 job is to catch; to hit is second," he said. "That's what all your great catchers have done. Your No. 1 job is to handle the staff, block balls and throw guys out."

I'm tellin ya, Bob Boone got in LaRue's head and got Jason all goofy about the stick. Too bad.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 09:16 AM
After sleeping on this Larue salary dump, I really think a monster deal is on the way; and my guess is that it will be a Miltonesque misstep.

Heath
11-21-2006, 09:19 AM
After sleeping on this Larue salary dump, I really think a monster deal is on the way; and my guess is that it will be a Miltonesque misstep.

Thanks as usual for your informative, enlightening , positive outlook on your favorite baseball team.

Dude, is it THAT gloomy in Philly all the time?

Honestly, I don't think there's going to be a big deal, IMO. I think its going to be a series of little ones.

RFS62
11-21-2006, 09:21 AM
After sleeping on this Larue salary dump, I really think a monster deal is on the way; and my guess is that it will be a Miltonesque misstep.



You gotta quit slamming Billy Beer and cheesecake before you go to bed, dude.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 09:34 AM
Honestly, I don't think there's going to be a big deal, IMO. I think its going to be a series of little ones.

I do.

A mea culpa for his Trade.

I'd be okay with a big deal (as opposed to a bunch of little ones that'll nickel and dime the team) as long as it's for the right target.

IslandRed
11-21-2006, 10:03 AM
I guess I never really looked the whole series of events like that. Thank you for helping me see things a little differently, M2. If I gather what you're saying about the Casey dump, then by the same token are you saying we had resources and didn't need to dump LaRue? If I read all of your posts wrong, I apologize, but that's my take on what you said.


Not speaking for M2, but what I took from his post is that the Reds had a lot of things going on that winter and it's difficult to draw a direct cause and effect from Casey's trade to Dunn's extension.

As for Larue, same sort of deal. I'm sure they have a payroll figure in mind, and there will be (already has been) a bunch of adding and subtracting. If dumping Larue's salary helps them fit more talent under that number, fine with me.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 10:12 AM
Thanks as usual for your informative, enlightening , positive outlook on your favorite baseball team.

Dude, is it THAT gloomy in Philly all the time?

.

This is one of several posts from you taking my person to task.


Best I can tell, I've never said anything of the sort to you unprovoked.

Use the pm function.

BRM
11-21-2006, 10:17 AM
After sleeping on this Larue salary dump, I really think a monster deal is on the way; and my guess is that it will be a Miltonesque misstep.

Who do the Reds have to send out that would be considered part of a monster deal? Dunn? Maybe Griffey? I don't know if I see Wayne pulling off a monster deal. I see him making lots of smaller moves over the winter.

westofyou
11-21-2006, 10:20 AM
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
After sleeping on this Larue salary dump, I really think a monster deal is on the way; and my guess is that it will be a Miltonesque misstep.

No surprise there, have any predictions Mr Cayce? ;)

Caveman Techie
11-21-2006, 10:22 AM
I do.

A mea culpa for his Trade.

I'd be okay with a big deal (as opposed to a bunch of little ones that'll nickel and dime the team) as long as it's for the right target.


And who is the right target? Now being realistic, and not trading our scrubbs/albatros's for ace's and sluggers.

joshnky
11-21-2006, 10:26 AM
And who is the right target? Now being realistic, and not trading our scrubbs/albatros's for ace's and sluggers.

Are you suggesting that the trade suggestions on this board are unrealistic? You mean we can't trade Milton and KGJ for Vernon Wells? ;)

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 10:27 AM
Who do the Reds have to send out that would be considered part of a monster deal? Dunn? Maybe Griffey? I don't know if I see Wayne pulling off a monster deal. I see him making lots of smaller moves over the winter.

No. Either a FA. or a guy like Garland (who's basically Brad Radke, whom Wayne admired).

Caveman Techie
11-21-2006, 10:30 AM
Well sorta, but in all seriousness I really want to know who FCB thinks is a proper target for the Reds to pursue. Is it offense? Is it that top tier starter? What is that one piece of the puzzle that we're missing right now that will push the Reds into the playoffs?

osuceltic
11-21-2006, 10:32 AM
And who is the right target? Now being realistic, and not trading our scrubbs/albatros's for ace's and sluggers.

Your qualifier eliminates any potential trade that might satisfy him.

A few things that might happen:

-- Krivsky signs a second-tier starter (Meche, Padilla, Lilly), but the contract is too much for FCB's liking and he blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a third-tier starter, but the contract is too much and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a fourth-tier starter for pennies, but the guy isn't good enough and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a guy like Baez to be the closer, but FCB blasts the move because paying for a closer is a bad move.

-- Krivsky doesn't sign a closer and goes with someone in-house, but FCB blasts the move because no one in-house is good enough to be a closer.

-- Krivsky trades someone for someone, but FCB blasts the move because Krivsky made it.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 10:32 AM
Well sorta, but in all seriousness I really want to know who FCB thinks is a proper target for the Reds to pursue. Is it offense? Is it that top tier starter? What is that one piece of the puzzle that we're missing right now that will push the Reds into the playoffs?

Barry Zito. (Commenceth the litany of excuses as to why it "ain't gonna happen").

Heck, I'd take Suppan if all it costs is money.

There are more; I'll think on it.

sixfigure
11-21-2006, 10:40 AM
Your qualifier eliminates any potential trade that might satisfy him.

A few things that might happen:

-- Krivsky signs a second-tier starter (Meche, Padilla, Lilly), but the contract is too much for FCB's liking and he blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a third-tier starter, but the contract is too much and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a fourth-tier starter for pennies, but the guy isn't good enough and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a guy like Baez to be the closer, but FCB blasts the move because paying for a closer is a bad move.

-- Krivsky doesn't sign a closer and goes with someone in-house, but FCB blasts the move because no one in-house is good enough to be a closer.

-- Krivsky trades someone for someone, but FCB blasts the move because Krivsky made it.
Celtic,

That is funny but is also so so TRUE.......LMFAO!!!!!

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 10:40 AM
Your qualifier eliminates any potential trade that might satisfy him.

A few things that might happen:

-- Krivsky signs a second-tier starter (Meche, Padilla, Lilly), but the contract is too much for FCB's liking and he blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a third-tier starter, but the contract is too much and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a fourth-tier starter for pennies, but the guy isn't good enough and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a guy like Baez to be the closer, but FCB blasts the move because paying for a closer is a bad move.

-- Krivsky doesn't sign a closer and goes with someone in-house, but FCB blasts the move because no one in-house is good enough to be a closer.

-- Krivsky trades someone for someone, but FCB blasts the move because Krivsky made it.


I've made it clear several times in the last few days that I couldn't possibly care less about money unless it's used to lock up a crappy player.

Go gaslight someone else.

BRM
11-21-2006, 10:45 AM
Is it "Hammer FCB" day or something?

Is Garland a FA or would a trade be required for Wayne to get him? I don't know that I want Garland though.

Highlifeman21
11-21-2006, 10:50 AM
Is it "Hammer FCB" day or something?

Is Garland a FA or would a trade be required for Wayne to get him? I don't know that I want Garland though.

Trade required.

I'm not convinced I want Garland either. It would depend on the price.

Not to hijack the thread or anything, but I would love to explore any and all avenues to go pry Grady Sizemore from Cleveland.

I know they wouldn't take Griffey, but man, I would love to see Denorfia and Sizemore patrolling the same OF.

M2
11-21-2006, 10:51 AM
I guess I never really looked the whole series of events like that. Thank you for helping me see things a little differently, M2. If I gather what you're saying about the Casey dump, then by the same token are you saying we had resources and didn't need to dump LaRue? If I read all of your posts wrong, I apologize, but that's my take on what you said.

My question to you is, would the Reds have been a better team with Casey at 1B in 2006 than Hatteberg, and by how much did Williams hurt us beyond belief?

I guess I'm wrong to think that LaRue wasn't worth 5.2M, but seeing some of the crazy contracts being thrown around lately, maybe he was actually a bargain.

Whether the team needed to dump LaRue isn't something we'll know for a while. Every team, even the Yankees, has a northern end to what it can spend. So if the Reds get up north of $75M, then LaRue's cash probably is paying for someone else. Though it is conceivable the Reds could have kept LaRue. He's certainly not a wildly expensive item (and I've got no idea how much they're actually saving). Given the timing, I think that if the Reds really do up their payroll by a significant amount then we can look at LaRue's cash as having paid for (part of) Alex Gonzalez. I don't have a problem with that, though that may not be the ultimate dynamic.

It could turn out the Reds free up some cash and then can't figure out where to spend it. I'm still hoping against hope the PTBNL is someone a little better than the standard PTBNL. Jorge de la Rosa is a guy I'd be all for taking a chance on.

As for the the 2006 team and Casey, I'm no fan of dumping a player who could be a solid contributor on a good team. That doesn't mean I wouldn't have wanted to trade Sean Casey. Had the Pirates been sending Tom Gorzelanny instead of Dave Williams, my reaction to the deal would have been far different. My take on it was and is, that the Reds needed to move players from their OF/1B for compelling returns. To borrow a line of thinking from FCB, swapping out what Sean Casey gave the Reds in 2005 for what Scott Hatteberg provided in 2006 didn't make the Reds one bit better. It didn't improve the team. Dave Williams surely didn't improve the team though Krivsky fortunately cut bait on him quick enough to minimize any damage he did.

What the Reds really lost there was the opportunity to get something meaningful in return for Casey. The Reds need talent. They don't have a productive pipeline at this point in time and they can't buy up a ton of talent in the free agent market so they need to make the trade market work for them. My complaint about the Casey trade was that it was far more important to net talent than to save money (it almost always is). I understand that not every trade pans out and that sometimes you "lose" the trade, but Dave Williams was a dog and Sean Casey is going to be the starting 1B for the defending AL champs next season.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 10:56 AM
I don't know that I want Garland though.


I don't really want him either. Which is why I see Wayne pursuing him.

westofyou
11-21-2006, 10:56 AM
What the Reds really lost there was the opportunity to get something meaningful in return for Casey.

The Reds inability to deal with Casey as an asset instead of the "Mayor" made them likely shop him only to the Pirates. That plus O'Briens reverse midas touch concerning pitching was a potent poison in that deal.

Wheelhouse
11-21-2006, 10:59 AM
Your qualifier eliminates any potential trade that might satisfy him.

A few things that might happen:

-- Krivsky signs a second-tier starter (Meche, Padilla, Lilly), but the contract is too much for FCB's liking and he blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a third-tier starter, but the contract is too much and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a fourth-tier starter for pennies, but the guy isn't good enough and FCB blasts the move.

-- Krivsky signs a guy like Baez to be the closer, but FCB blasts the move because paying for a closer is a bad move.

-- Krivsky doesn't sign a closer and goes with someone in-house, but FCB blasts the move because no one in-house is good enough to be a closer.

-- Krivsky trades someone for someone, but FCB blasts the move because Krivsky made it.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

BRM
11-21-2006, 11:02 AM
I don't really want him either. Which is why I see Wayne pursuing him.

You're hoping for Mark Redman, right? ;)

Wheelhouse
11-21-2006, 11:03 AM
The Reds inability to deal with Casey as an asset instead of the "Mayor" made them likely shop him only to the Pirates. That plus O'Briens reverse midas touch concerning pitching was a potent poison in that deal.

Look at the performance last year...he came through big in the playoffs which got him his current contract, which BTW, is vastly less than he was getting in Cincy. I think sometimes we over-value players more than the Yankees over-value their prospects.

Jpup
11-21-2006, 11:07 AM
Casey 2005 .312/.371/.423/.794
Hatteberg 2006 .289/.389/.436/.825

I think there is some improvement there. Hatteberg was over .400 for most of the year in OBP and he tailed off after the Reds headed west and collapsed.

Wheelhouse
11-21-2006, 11:07 AM
I don't really want him either. Which is why I see Wayne pursuing him.

Do you hate Wayne Krivsky?

Jpup
11-21-2006, 11:08 AM
Look at the performance last year...he came through big in the playoffs which got him his current contract, which BTW, is vastly less than he was getting in Cincy. I think sometimes we over-value players more than the Yankees over-value their prospects.

Casey was horrible during the regular season with the Tigers. That probably has a lot to do with it.

bounty37h
11-21-2006, 11:11 AM
Soriano is going to run wild against Javy and Ross.

That said, I think Javy could improve his hitting stats if he gets more PT.
That would compensate a drop from Ross.

^Larue doesn't exactly gun down opponents with ease, something like 37-38 % I think???

Heath
11-21-2006, 11:15 AM
Casey 2005 .312/.371/.423/.794
Hatteberg 2006 .289/.389/.436/.825

I think there is some improvement there. Hatteberg was over .400 for most of the year in OBP and he tailed off after the Reds headed west and collapsed.

Scott Hatteberg had a career year. I would expect him to drop off to 2005 Casey or below numbers for 2007.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 11:15 AM
Do you hate Wayne Krivsky?

I don't like GMs that screw up in the middle of a winnable pennant chase.

I like winners. And like Mr. Castellini, I'm not patient.

Nor am I apologizing for wanting the best.

Wheelhouse
11-21-2006, 11:17 AM
I don't like GMs that screw up in the middle of a winnable pennant chase.

I like winners. And like Mr. Castellini, I'm not patient.

Nor am I apologizing for wanting the best.

Hmmm, I feel the same way about players in a pennant chase. Yet I'm accused of "hating" Adam Dunn. Interesting.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 11:17 AM
Hmmm, I feel the same way about players in a pennant chase. Yet I'm accused of "hating" Adam Dunn. Interesting.

We all have our crosses to bear.

But I don't get personal with you for bleating the same thing over and over.

IslandRed
11-21-2006, 11:18 AM
^Larue doesn't exactly gun down opponents with ease, something like 37-38 % I think???

Which is pretty good. I'm too lazy to add up the league average, but in last year's NL, all but two teams stole bases with at least a 65% success rate. The Reds themselves were successful 79% of the time.

Wheelhouse
11-21-2006, 11:22 AM
We all have our crosses to bear.

But I don't get personal with you for bleating the same thing over and over.

Sure ya don't :rolleyes: So your sentence couldn't have ended with "...personal with you." It had to have the jab at the end, which is getting personal.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 11:26 AM
Sure ya don't :rolleyes: So your sentence couldn't have ended with "...personal with you." It had to have the jab at the end, which is getting personal.

Ironic, no?

redsupport
11-21-2006, 11:35 AM
Excellent billingsgate

M2
11-21-2006, 11:53 AM
Casey 2005 .312/.371/.423/.794
Hatteberg 2006 .289/.389/.436/.825

I think there is some improvement there. Hatteberg was over .400 for most of the year in OBP and he tailed off after the Reds headed west and collapsed.

Casey 2005 - OPS+ 102, 22.6 VORP
Hatteberg 2006 - OPS+ 106, 16.9 VORP

It's basically a wash.

TOBTTReds
11-21-2006, 12:06 PM
Hmmm, I feel the same way about players in a pennant chase. Yet I'm accused of "hating" Adam Dunn. Interesting.

A GM chooses to do things, thinking they work. Dunn didn't choose to suck in September.

PuffyPig
11-21-2006, 12:09 PM
Casey 2005 - OPS+ 102, 22.6 VORP
Hatteberg 2006 - OPS+ 106, 16.9 VORP

It's basically a wash.

Cost of Casey in 2005...$8.5M
Hatteberg in 2006....$1.5M

$7M will buy a lot of soap.

PuffyPig
11-21-2006, 12:12 PM
A GM chooses to do things, thinking they work. Dunn didn't choose to suck in September.

A GM doesn't choose to have a trade not work out. A GM, like a player, makes his best effort to succeed. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes they aren't.

Caveman Techie
11-21-2006, 12:25 PM
I agree, Barry Zito would be a huge step towards getting the Reds in the playoffs. However, I don't think it is realistic to expect him to show up here. He is going to command a huge ransom in free agency and the Reds just can't afford that, unless the owner is willing to lose alot of money for a championship, not everyone is willing to be a Steinbrenner.

Now Suppan on the other hand that might be an interesting way to go.

Marty and Joe
11-21-2006, 12:25 PM
According to Rotoworld, the Royals are only paying about $2.5 of the money Larue is due next year...

Yesterday, I wasn't too concerned with the PTBNL...now, I'm more interested.

westofyou
11-21-2006, 12:26 PM
According to Rotoworld, the Royals are only paying about $2.5 of the money Larue is due next year...

Yesterday, I wasn't too concerned with the PTBNL...now, I'm more interested.

Yep, any money going to the Royals increases the prospects worth.

M2
11-21-2006, 12:49 PM
Cost of Casey in 2005...$8.5M
Hatteberg in 2006....$1.5M

$7M will buy a lot of soap.

Or it could just go unspent. We know league and teams revenues took a sizable jump in 2006 yet the player payroll went down slightly. Something wound up in the team's pocket -- the Casey savings, the Graves savings, the Ortiz/Jiminez savings, the added revenue, take your pick. I'm not particularly peeved at that because I think there was more potential for bad investments than good ones with the previous regime, but it does wipe out the basis for insisting that any subtraction made last year led to some sort of important addition (unless its a subtraction like Pena directly netting an addition like Arroyo).

I'll echo what I said earlier in this thread. You'll never catch me giving a standing ovation for corporate savings. I'd have rather paid every cent of Sean Casey's deal and gotten something far better than Dave Williams.

fearofpopvol1
11-21-2006, 12:51 PM
Why is everyone so high on Zito coming to the reds? He is a good pitcher and would definitely be an improvement, but he is a flyball pitcher. Do we need another Milton at GAB? No thanks. Save your money and go after someone else.

Highlifeman21
11-21-2006, 12:59 PM
Why is everyone so high on Zito coming to the reds? He is a good pitcher and would definitely be an improvement, but he is a flyball pitcher. Do we need another Milton at GAB? No thanks. Save your money and go after someone else.

You're not actually suggesting that Zito wouldn't help us?

registerthis
11-21-2006, 01:05 PM
Why is everyone so high on Zito coming to the reds? He is a good pitcher and would definitely be an improvement, but he is a flyball pitcher. Do we need another Milton at GAB? No thanks. Save your money and go after someone else.

That's funny...I could've sworn I just read the words "Milton" and "Zito" in the same sentence.

Rojo
11-21-2006, 01:07 PM
You're not actually suggesting that Zito wouldn't help us?

He'll get paid more than he's worth. I channel Branch Rickey when it comes to long-term contracts, stick with big right-handers.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 01:11 PM
He'll get paid more than he's worth. I channel Branch Rickey when it comes to long-term contracts, stick with big right-handers.

You can always keep him as long as he's effective, then trade him in his third season.

Teams that cringe at a dollar amount for a pitcher of Zito's caliber are never going to be happy with a FA pitcher.

And that's fine if that's your philosophy, but you're cutting off one important avenue of acquiring players.

I'd be just as happy acquiring the righty Jennings, and extending his contract. Regardless, it's not a bad idea to lock up a successful pitcher who has come up through some other organization's system and not the Reds' at this point.

Puffy
11-21-2006, 01:17 PM
I'm not on the Zito bandwagon - I don't believe he'll be cost effective with Boras as his agent and teams bidding for him.

Nice pitcher, but not at the cost right now.

RFS62
11-21-2006, 01:19 PM
I'm not on the Zito bandwagon - I don't believe he'll be cost effective with Boras as his agent and teams bidding for him.

Nice pitcher, but not at the cost right now.



Agreed.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 01:20 PM
Agreed.

Who would you or Puffy target?

(And you can't say we don't need a starter. ;) )

Highlifeman21
11-21-2006, 01:25 PM
He'll get paid more than he's worth. I channel Branch Rickey when it comes to long-term contracts, stick with big right-handers.

Limit the Zito contract to 3 years, and do your best to stay under 45M. IMO, 3 years @ 40M would be great for the Reds, but I doubt Zito would come here for that. Anymore years after 3 years, and that contract is a liability.

If the Reds aren't willing to walk contender while trying to talk contender, then what's the point?

Rojo
11-21-2006, 01:38 PM
I'd be just as happy acquiring the righty Jennings, and extending his contract. Regardless, it's not a bad idea to lock up a successful pitcher who has come up through some other organization's system and not the Reds' at this point.

I think that's a better plan. The problem with long-term contracts is that they're signed too late in most players careers. I'd like Zito for the next three years but not necessarily for the next seven.

PuffyPig
11-21-2006, 02:00 PM
I'll echo what I said earlier in this thread. You'll never catch me giving a standing ovation for corporate savings. I'd have rather paid every cent of Sean Casey's deal and gotten something far better than Dave Williams.


I'll agree with that.

I've always assumed that money saved is money spent. You've reminded me that that is not always the case.

PuffyPig
11-21-2006, 02:02 PM
I'd be just as happy acquiring the righty Jennings, and extending his contract. Regardless, it's not a bad idea to lock up a successful pitcher who has come up through some other organization's system and not the Reds' at this point.

I agree that Jennings swould likely be better than Zito, and quite a bit less costly.

Highlifeman21
11-21-2006, 02:08 PM
I agree that Jennings swould likely be better than Zito, and quite a bit less costly.

Zito costs us money.

Jennings costs us most likely money and players.

I'd rather just spend money.

PuffyPig
11-21-2006, 02:18 PM
Zito costs us money.

Jennings costs us most likely money and players.

I'd rather just spend money.

But Zito costs us way, way more money.

And Zito might just be terrible for us, while Jennings will likely be better.

RFS62
11-21-2006, 02:29 PM
Who would you or Puffy target?

(And you can't say we don't need a starter. ;) )



I agree with you about Jennings, but I'm not sure what it would take to get him.

Moby Zito, I leave him for the big harpoons in New York or LA.

Handofdeath
11-21-2006, 02:29 PM
You can always keep him as long as he's effective, then trade him in his third season.

Teams that cringe at a dollar amount for a pitcher of Zito's caliber are never going to be happy with a FA pitcher.

And that's fine if that's your philosophy, but you're cutting off one important avenue of acquiring players.

I'd be just as happy acquiring the righty Jennings, and extending his contract. Regardless, it's not a bad idea to lock up a successful pitcher who has come up through some other organization's system and not the Reds' at this point.

Double digits in losses and 7 games over .500 the last 4 seasons for Zito. 2nd in the AL in BB's last season. A WHIP last year of 1.40. I don't see Zito as any kind of upgrade over Harang or Arroyo. The thought of Zito being paid 12-15 million a season for that by the Reds should make any Reds fan cringe. He's still living off his seasons from 5-6 years ago. He would be a #3 pitcher for the Reds and to pay that much for him would be a monumental mistake.

M2
11-21-2006, 02:50 PM
Barry Zito's living off six-straight 200+ IP seasons and a career 3.55 ERA.

The Reds probably can't afford/entice him, but Reds fans turning their nose up at Zito is like a guy getting out of prison after ten years and turning down a Miss America contestant because she was only third runner up.

RFS62
11-21-2006, 02:51 PM
The Reds probably can't afford/entice him, but Reds fans turning their nose up at Zito is like a guy getting out of prison after ten years and turning down a Miss America contestant because she was only third runner up.


Hey, we've got our standards.

:pimp:

Puffy
11-21-2006, 02:57 PM
Who would you or Puffy target?

(And you can't say we don't need a starter. ;) )

Jennings, Lilly, Francis if the Rocks are dumb enough to make him available.

Like I said, its more about cost effectiveness - I have no doubt Zito is a fine pitcher and the Reds would be lucky to have him, but he's not Johan Santana and he is going to be paid like Johan, and therein lies my problem. I'd rather have Lilly for 8 million to have that extra money to either get more offense (*cough* Coco Crisp *cough*) or more bullpen arms (arms that can miss bats, cause we are solely lacking those).

VI_RedsFan
11-21-2006, 02:58 PM
Just curious...Would you guys send Dunn to the Rockies for Jennings if he agreed to an extension before the trade? I think Jennings is the right SP to target, he could turn into a Brandon Webb.

I would probably do it, but I would need Colorado to add a little more to make it work, possible Brad Hawpe.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 03:03 PM
Jennings, Lilly, Francis if the Rocks are dumb enough to make him available.

Like I said, its more about cost effectiveness - I have no doubt Zito is a fine pitcher and the Reds would be lucky to have him, but he's not Johan Santana and he is going to be paid like Johan, and therein lies my problem. I'd rather have Lilly for 8 million to have that extra money to either get more offense (*cough* Coco Crisp *cough*) or more bullpen arms (arms that can miss bats, cause we are solely lacking those).


Any model that emphasizes bullpen arms (no matter how amazing--though there appear to be very, very, very few bullpen arms available right now) is backwards.

I want offense too, but you've got to take care of the big fish (eliminating Lohse and Milton) and replace them with league-average or better arms.

Francis isn't going anywhere, and Lilly is exactly the kind of pitcher who's likely to pull a Milton, not Zito.

Handofdeath
11-21-2006, 03:06 PM
Barry Zito's living off six-straight 200+ IP seasons and a career 3.55 ERA.

The Reds probably can't afford/entice him, but Reds fans turning their nose up at Zito is like a guy getting out of prison after ten years and turning down a Miss America contestant because she was only third runner up.

I won't deny that he is durable but he is no better than Harang or Arroyo at this point. To pay 12-15 million for a guy without a complete game since 2003 and to act like he's some savior for this franchise just seems wrong. BTW I was looking at the postings on athletics.mlb.com to see what they thought about Zito. One guy posted what he said was the A's contract offer to Zito and I thought it was funny so here it is...

"They offered him a new acoustic guitar, a pound of pot, and Alyssa Milano's new, as-of-yet-unblocked cell phone number, plus a clause saying everyone will call him the anchor of the rotation no matter how crappily he pitches. Not sure that any money was involved, but as of yet he hasn't accepted. "

Puffy
11-21-2006, 03:13 PM
Any model that emphasizes bullpen arms (no matter how amazing--though there appear to be very, very, very few bullpen arms available right now) is backwards.

I want offense too, but you've got to take care of the big fish (eliminating Lohse and Milton) and replace them with league-average or better arms.

Francis isn't going anywhere, and Lilly is exactly the kind of pitcher who's likely to pull a Milton, not Zito.

I'm not emphasizing bullpen arms - but I'd rather get one starter and then some relievers or an offensive player rather than one big name pitcher like Zito and then be done.

The Reds have more than one hole.

And we disagree about Lilly - thats cool. But lately Lilly has shown more of an affinity to miss bats over Zito. Zito 4 years ago missed a ton of bats, but thats decreased over the last few years.

Rojo
11-21-2006, 03:20 PM
The Reds probably can't afford/entice him, but Reds fans turning their nose up at Zito is like a guy getting out of prison after ten years and turning down a Miss America contestant because she was only third runner up.

Yeah, but how much does she want?

I'm guessing Zito will be the guy who gets way more than he warrants because a) he's a lefty and b) plays guitar or does magic tricks or something that gets him into People Magazine . Anyhow, he's slightly overrated and only the big boys can pay for that. Teams like the Reds should target slightly-to-greatly underrated.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 03:24 PM
Zito 4 years ago missed a ton of bats, but thats decreased over the last few years.

Zito's been the model of almost perfect consistency. His K numbers have NEVER been eye-popping. But his results have always been there.

Matt700wlw
11-21-2006, 03:26 PM
I didn't see this posted...if it is, sorry.

Rotoworld.com

The Royals are only paying about $2.5 million of the $5.45 million Jason LaRue is due next season.The Reds will cover the rest of the contract after trading him to Kansas City on Monday. For that little money, we like this quite a bit better for the Royals

M2
11-21-2006, 03:28 PM
I won't deny that he is durable but he is no better than Harang or Arroyo at this point. To pay 12-15 million for a guy without a complete game since 2003 and to act like he's some savior for this franchise just seems wrong.

If the Reds could land one guy no better than Harang and Arroyo, I'd say they were within striking distance of a division title. Look at the effect adding Arroyo had on the team in 2006. FWIW, Zito finished 12th in the starting pitcher Elias rankings for 2005-6.

Yeah, he'll be expensive, but I'm all for the Reds spending some money. Plus, what passes for expensive is in seriouis flux. If the market continues to blow up, Zito could even be looked at as a relative bargain in a few years. He's only 28.

BRM
11-21-2006, 03:35 PM
I didn't see this posted...if it is, sorry.

Rotoworld.com

The Royals are only paying about $2.5 million of the $5.45 million Jason LaRue is due next season.The Reds will cover the rest of the contract after trading him to Kansas City on Monday. For that little money, we like this quite a bit better for the Royals

It's going to boil down to the PTBNL now. One would hope the prospect is a decent one with the Reds sending cash to KC.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 03:37 PM
It's going to boil down to the PTBNL now. One would hope the prospect is a decent one with the Reds sending cash to KC.

My guess is that the bigger fool between Krivsky and Moore is....

CaiGuy
11-21-2006, 03:39 PM
I didn't see this posted...if it is, sorry.

Rotoworld.com

The Royals are only paying about $2.5 million of the $5.45 million Jason LaRue is due next season.The Reds will cover the rest of the contract after trading him to Kansas City on Monday. For that little money, we like this quite a bit better for the Royals

Wow, if the Red's don't get a decent player back, this deal is practicly useless considering that they are paying most of the contract anyways.

Rojo
11-21-2006, 03:40 PM
I didn't see this posted...if it is, sorry.

Rotoworld.com

The Royals are only paying about $2.5 million of the $5.45 million Jason LaRue is due next season.The Reds will cover the rest of the contract after trading him to Kansas City on Monday. For that little money, we like this quite a bit better for the Royals


This makes more sense for the Royals.

BRM
11-21-2006, 03:43 PM
My guess is that the bigger fool between Krivsky and Moore is....

Why didn't you finish your thought? :devil:

Cedric
11-21-2006, 03:47 PM
I'm surprised FCB didn't take another chance to potshot someone else's intelligence.

It's not his sign of insecurity though.

M2
11-21-2006, 04:01 PM
I'm surprised FCB didn't take another chance to potshot someone else's intelligence.

It's not his sign of insecurity though.

As opposed this being yours?

Puffy
11-21-2006, 04:04 PM
I'm surprised FCB didn't take another chance to potshot someone else's intelligence.

It's not his sign of insecurity though.

Come on, Ced - FCB is a fan just like all of us. And he is right a lot more than he is wrong, and when he is wrong he has no qualms about admitting it. This whole thread has turned into a bash FCB thread and I for one don't think thats fair

Team Clark
11-21-2006, 04:08 PM
Come on, Ced - FCB is a fan just like all of us. And he is right a lot more than he is wrong, and when he is wrong he has no qualms about admitting it. This whole thread has turned into a bash FCB thread and I for one don't think thats fair

Agreed. Having been through this it's no fun and not the reason anyone comes here to post.

traderumor
11-21-2006, 04:13 PM
I would hope the cash heading to KC is reflective of more than an A-baller coming back.

Team Clark
11-21-2006, 04:14 PM
I would hope the cash heading to KC is reflective of more than an A-baller coming back.

I would go along with that.

Cedric
11-21-2006, 04:22 PM
Come on, Ced - FCB is a fan just like all of us. And he is right a lot more than he is wrong, and when he is wrong he has no qualms about admitting it. This whole thread has turned into a bash FCB thread and I for one don't think thats fair

I was honestly just kidding around with him. I should have put a smiley face up.

And the reason I say that is because of the earlier posts in the thread about this being a bash FCB thread. I was just piling on. Maybe I should have done it with someone who likes actually likes me though :)

Rojo
11-21-2006, 04:29 PM
I would hope the cash heading to KC is reflective of more than an A-baller coming back.


I wouldn't hold my breath. LaRue is a 33 y.o. catcher coming off an injury who hit under .200 last year.

Falls City Beer
11-21-2006, 04:39 PM
I wouldn't hold my breath. LaRue is a 33 y.o. catcher coming off an injury who hit under .200 last year.

My guess is that Moore's smart enough to see beyond a low batting average.

Puffy
11-21-2006, 04:46 PM
I was honestly just kidding around with him. I should have put a smiley face up.

And the reason I say that is because of the earlier posts in the thread about this being a bash FCB thread. I was just piling on. Maybe I should have done it with someone who likes actually likes me though :)

Thats cool - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to single you out. FCB has been hit pretty hard the last day or two and I just thought it was getting a little redundant, but it wasn't you who was doing most of the hitting, so I apologize if it appeared I was singling you out!

Cedric
11-21-2006, 04:47 PM
Thats cool - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to single you out. FCB has been hit pretty hard the last day or two and I just thought it was getting a little redundant, but it wasn't you who was doing most of the hitting, so I apologize if it appeared I was singling you out!

No problem.

I like piling on FCB, he takes it well mostly.
:)

westofyou
11-21-2006, 04:48 PM
I wouldn't hold my breath. LaRue is a 33 y.o. catcher coming off an injury who hit under .200 last year.

LaRue has never had 400 at bats in a season, there is a chance that he might be healthier then most catchers. That said here's the track record in OPS vs the league since the strike, then the guys who only has 300-400 at bats (which has been Larues norm)



SEASON
1995-2006
C
AGE >= 33
AT BATS >= 275

OPS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB AGE
1 Mike Piazza 2002 .140 .903 .763 478 33
2 Greg Myers 2003 .113 .876 .762 329 37
3 Javier Lopez 2004 .100 .872 .773 579 33
4 Jason Varitek 2005 .099 .856 .756 470 33
5 Mike Stanley 1996 .094 .889 .795 397 33
6 Jorge Posada 2006 .089 .867 .778 465 34
7 Darrin Fletcher 2000 .076 .869 .794 416 33
8 Terry Steinbach 1996 .075 .871 .795 514 34
9 Mike Piazza 2006 .058 .843 .785 399 37
10 Gregg Zaun 2006 .047 .825 .778 290 35
11 Jorge Posada 2005 .026 .782 .756 474 33
12 Javier Lopez 2005 .024 .780 .756 395 34
13 Jeff Reed 1996 .023 .784 .761 341 33
14 Mike Piazza 2005 .012 .778 .767 398 36
15 Terry Steinbach 1995 .009 .780 .771 406 33
16 Jim Leyritz 1997 .003 .772 .770 379 33
17 Benito Santiago 2002 .002 .765 .763 478 37
18 Darren Daulton 1995 -.002 .759 .761 342 33
19 Paul Lo Duca 2006 -.003 .783 .785 512 34
20 Ivan Rodriguez 2006 -.009 .769 .778 547 34
21 Mike Lieberthal 2005 -.012 .755 .767 392 33
22 Gregg Zaun 2004 -.012 .761 .773 338 33
23 Damian Miller 2005 -.013 .753 .767 385 35
24 Benito Santiago 2003 -.018 .753 .771 401 38
25 Ivan Rodriguez 2005 -.022 .735 .756 504 33

SEASON
1995-2006
C
AGE >= 33
AT BATS BETWEEN 300 AND 400
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OPS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB AGE
1 Greg Myers 2003 .113 .876 .762 329 37
2 Mike Stanley 1996 .094 .889 .795 397 33
3 Mike Piazza 2006 .058 .843 .785 399 37
4 Javier Lopez 2005 .024 .780 .756 395 34
5 Jeff Reed 1996 .023 .784 .761 341 33
6 Mike Piazza 2005 .012 .778 .767 398 36
7 Jim Leyritz 1997 .003 .772 .770 379 33
8 Darren Daulton 1995 -.002 .759 .761 342 33
9 Mike Lieberthal 2005 -.012 .755 .767 392 33
10 Gregg Zaun 2004 -.012 .761 .773 338 33
11 Damian Miller 2005 -.013 .753 .767 385 35
12 Lenny Webster 1998 -.022 .751 .773 309 33
13 Damian Miller 2004 -.031 .742 .773 397 34
14 Dan Wilson 2002 -.036 .721 .757 359 33
15 Terry Steinbach 1999 -.039 .748 .788 338 37
16 Eddie Perez 2003 -.048 .724 .771 350 35
17 Jason Varitek 2006 -.053 .725 .778 365 34
18 Charlie O'Brien 1996 -.054 .741 .795 324 36
19 Sandy Alomar Jr. 2000 -.066 .728 .794 356 34
20 Damian Miller 2006 -.074 .711 .785 331 36
21 Brook Fordyce 2003 -.081 .682 .762 348 33
22 Joe Girardi 2000 -.083 .714 .797 363 35
23 Brad Ausmus 2005 -.084 .682 .767 387 36
24 Damian Miller 2003 -.092 .680 .771 352 33
25 Brent Mayne 2001 -.093 .678 .771 326 33

Rojo
11-21-2006, 05:31 PM
My guess is that Moore's smart enough to see beyond a low batting average.

Good for him. Now if he can convince the other 28 teams to look past it, we'd have a bidding war.

reds44
11-21-2006, 05:35 PM
My guess is that Moore's smart enough to see beyond a low batting average.
Yeah he can see his .317 OBP, .346 SLG., his strikeouts, and his age.

He is scarppy though.

He plays good defense, but defense doesn't matter. See: the Alez Gonzalez signing thread right?

mth123
11-21-2006, 08:21 PM
I'm not on the Zito bandwagon - I don't believe he'll be cost effective with Boras as his agent and teams bidding for him.

Nice pitcher, but not at the cost right now.

I agree. He gave up 1.40 Baserunners per inning in 2006. He gave up 1.10 HR per nine in a park where the ball doesn't carry. Some of those flyballs become HR with the number of baserunners he allows, he won't be worth it at all IMO. He could even be pretty bad in the wrong park.

mth123
11-21-2006, 08:27 PM
Come on, Ced - FCB is a fan just like all of us. And he is right a lot more than he is wrong, and when he is wrong he has no qualms about admitting it. This whole thread has turned into a bash FCB thread and I for one don't think thats fair

I agree again.

Mario-Rijo
11-21-2006, 10:29 PM
Just a side note on LaRue, I didn't check to see if it has been posted here but I read somewhere today that we sent somewhere between 2.5 to 3 Mill to KC in the deal to help with that near 5.5 mill contract. So much for saving some money.



Busy Reds subtract, add
Team trades LaRue, signs Gonzalez, Stanton
BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER
Not bad for one day's announcements.

One shortstop and one left-handed reliever added, one big salary subtracted.

That's what the Reds did Monday:


Signed free agent shortstop Alex Gonzalez to a three-year, $14 million contract.

Signed left-hander Mike Stanton to a two-year, $5.5 million contract.

Traded catcher Jason LaRue and his $5.2 million salary to Kansas City for a player to be named. There was cash involved in the LaRue deal, but jettisoning the money owed to LaRue will help the Reds remain active on the free agent market. General manager Wayne Krivsky would not divulge how much money was involved in the LaRue deal, saying that moving his contract would help "a little bit."

The upshot of the moves is that Krivsky's revamping of the roster continues. Stanton and Gonzalez were the 39th and 40th players he has acquired. LaRue, the longest tenured Red, is gone.

And Krivsky is not done.

"It's Nov. 20," he said. "How many days to spring training?"

Shortstop and closer were the Reds' two most pressing needs. Gonzalez takes care of the hole at shortstop. Stanton may get a look at closer, but there's no guarantee.

"We'll see in spring training," Krivsky said. "He has closed and set up. His job will be to get people out when he gets the ball."

Gonzalez, 29, is a huge upgrade defensively, which was one of the things on Krivsky's to-do list. The Reds were second-to-last in the National League in defense last year.

Signing Gonzalez allows Brandon Phillips to remain at second base. That gives the Reds two above-average middle infielders - something that they haven't had since Barry Larkin and Pokey Reese played together.

Gonzalez hit .255 with nine home runs and 50 RBI last year with the Boston Red Sox. In 2003 and 2004, he averaged 20.5 home runs and 78 RBI.

"We'll take someone with 15 to 20 home runs and 60 to 70 RBI," Krivsky said. "He can get better. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts and walk more."

The Reds need veteran arms in the bullpen. David Weathers, Scott Schoeneweis, Ryan Franklin and Kent Mercker are all free agents.

Stanton said six or seven teams made him offers. The Reds' offering a second year helped seal the deal.

"It seemed like the right deal for me," he said. "I like the direction the club is going in."

Stanton was not promised a certain role.

"I really don't care," he said. "I just want to pitch. If it's the ninth, great. If not, fine."

Topcat
11-22-2006, 02:16 AM
The big bat needs have to be addressed without a doubt. I truly think that is going to come thru the trade market though. To acquire a decent bat thru free agency would be crazy due to the financial commitment.

RANDY IN INDY
11-22-2006, 09:59 AM
Sounds like Stanton has the right attitude. I guess that's not hard to do when you're making that kind of money at his age and playing a little boys' game.