PDA

View Full Version : Early...and I mean early....2007 Starting Rotation predictions....



red-in-la
11-22-2006, 12:17 PM
My best guess:

Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang
Homer Bailey
Eric Milton
Matt Belisle

Highlifeman21
11-22-2006, 12:19 PM
What we have in-house...

Arroyo
Harang
Lohse
Claussen
Milton

redsmetz
11-22-2006, 12:33 PM
What we have in-house...

Arroyo
Harang
Lohse
Claussen
Milton

I think with "in house", this is most probably the current rotation. Ideally I'd like to find a legitimate #3 bump Lohse and see what's up with Claussen coming off surgery.

I wonder what, if anything, Coach Pole will be doing during the offseason viz. reviewing the pitchers and film etc.

redsfan30
11-22-2006, 12:38 PM
You can bet the farm that there will be an addition to this rotation that's not in the organization right now.

Maybe two.

Falls City Beer
11-22-2006, 12:44 PM
You can bet the farm that there will be an addition to this rotation that's not in the organization right now.

Maybe two.


With the market as vibrant and active as it is this offseason, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever that the above shouldn't be the case.

RedLegSuperStar
11-22-2006, 12:47 PM
Harang
Arroyo
Armas Jr.
Milton
Lohse

pedro
11-22-2006, 12:47 PM
My best guess:

Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang
Homer Bailey
Eric Milton
Matt Belisle


If the Reds go into next year with that rotation I'll start calling for Wayne's head too.

RedsManRick
11-22-2006, 12:53 PM
Harang
Arroyo
Milton
FA
Ramirez

SP and the 1B platoon is really the only spots left for WK to fill. I think he'll make a run at Wolf/Armas Jr and others on that tier.

If Junior moves to RF and Deno is in CF, Elizardo could be much more effective up here next year. I know he isn't a high ceiling guy, but I think he's not given nearly enough credit. He pitched quite well before getting abused and injured late last year. He's still quite young (24 in January) and has a strong track record of not walking people and keeping the ball in the yard. With a better defense, better health, and more experience, I don't think we could ask for much more out of the #5 spot in the rotation.

Also, I haven't looked around, but how many other teams have 2 30+ GS, sub 4 ERA guys at the top of the rotation. There aren't as many "solid" guys out there as you might think. Look at the rotation the Cards won with last year. It was Carpenter and nobody during the regular season.

Strikes Out Looking
11-22-2006, 01:03 PM
1. Harang and 2. Arroyo -- Locks
3. Milton -- Unless some GM somewhere has an undetected accident to his brain (Jim Hendry? JimBo?), Milton will probably be in the rotation.
4. This may be a contest between Ramirez, Claussen and Lohse. Lohse is the healthiest of the three, but is more expensive and IMO stinks. If either Ramirez or Claussen can rehab from their surgeries of 2006, they may be in the rotation. Belisle may also get a shot at this competition.
5. FA or trade--unknown who it will be but with the extra cash WK has to spend, I can't see why they can't sign someone for up to $10 million. (Of course, let us hope it is better than the last FA SP signing--see #3 above).

Homer Bailey will, I believe, start the year at AAA.

Falls City Beer
11-22-2006, 01:04 PM
Also, I haven't looked around, but how many other teams have 2 30+ GS, sub 4 ERA guys at the top of the rotation. There aren't as many "solid" guys out there as you might think. Look at the rotation the Cards won with last year. It was Carpenter and nobody during the regular season.

Be careful with that logic. Think about how strong the Cards were in every other facet of the game.

I don't think it's wise for a team like the Reds to ignore their rotation just because the Cards pulled away from an awful, awful division. (And, for the record, by the end of the season, the Cards had two totally legitimate starters in Suppan and Carpenter--Suppan just had a rough half season--his first in three years).

RedsManRick
11-22-2006, 01:16 PM
Be careful with that logic. Think about how strong the Cards were in every other facet of the game.

I don't think it's wise for a team like the Reds to ignore their rotation just because the Cards pulled away from an awful, awful division. (And, for the record, by the end of the season, the Cards had two totally legitimate starters in Suppan and Carpenter--Suppan just had a rough half season--his first in three years).

I'm not advocating we plan on a similar performance carrying us. The Cards do play good defense and had solid performances from their pen. Rather, I'm pointing out that we should have an accurate view of reality. Very few, if any NL teams are solid 1-5 in the rotation and most aren't even that solid 1 & 2. A rotation of say, Harang, Arroyo, Armas/Wolf, Milton, and Ramirez could very well be in the upper half the NL. Would I love to have the 3-5 spots filled with more 200 IP, 3.50 ERA guys? Sure. But it's not realistic and it's not like our competition is going to be running out 5 studs against us.

TOBTTReds
11-22-2006, 01:18 PM
Be careful with that logic. Think about how strong the Cards were in every other facet of the game.

I don't think it's wise for a team like the Reds to ignore their rotation just because the Cards pulled away from an awful, awful division. (And, for the record, by the end of the season, the Cards had two totally legitimate starters in Suppan and Carpenter--Suppan just had a rough half season--his first in three years).

True. But while we have ignored the rotation so far, we've added supposedly a gold glove SS to help them.

Falls City Beer
11-22-2006, 01:22 PM
Would I love to have the 3-5 spots filled with more 200 IP, 3.50 ERA guys? Sure. But it's not realistic and it's not like our competition is going to be running out 5 studs against us.

No one's asking for that. But two starters with the way this current team stands is dead in the water.

Scrap Irony
11-22-2006, 04:57 PM
Bailey's a solid #3 right now.

IMO.

That's like getting lucky with a Gil Meche or a Randy Wolf without the pay hike.

Cincinnati needs two starters, though they may not recognize which two to jettison.

RedLegSuperStar
11-22-2006, 06:11 PM
IMO Claussen would be best use as a spot starter/long relief.. at least till all star break. Hopefully Lohse can pitch like the first few games he started for us after the trade. Lohse has the mentality that he is out to prove those who doubt him and his ability. Also I think this is last year for arbitration before becoming a free agent. With that said lets hope him and Milton go out and pitch for a huge contract.

Still with that said I think we need a #3 guy. Names that could bargin signings would be Mulder, Wolf, Eaton, and Armas... when I say bargin.. I mean fit the Reds budget.

Kc61
11-22-2006, 06:56 PM
Hopefully, there will be Harang, Arroyo, NGWIG (new guy who is good).

Then we can have some combo of Lohse, Milton, Claussen, EZ and at some point Bailey to fight for the other two slots.

My guess is that, absent a trade, Milton and Lohse will fill the slots, if Milton is healthy. Otherwise EZ. I see Claussen rehabbing for awhile and Homer starting at AAA.

Jpup
11-23-2006, 12:27 PM
I don't think we will see Bailey until, at least, July.

TeamSelig
11-23-2006, 02:17 PM
I think if we get one more good starter we are fine.

Harang, Arroyo, new guy

Milton is fine as a 4th/5th starter. Use Elizardo or Claussen until Bailey is ready.

Assuming Bailey has a good rookie season... near 4 ERA which I think is reasonable, thats a pretty good rotation.

Just missing that one piece.

The_jbh
11-23-2006, 08:56 PM
I'd be willing to bet bailey is lights out in spring training and forces his way into the #5 spot where he gets extra days off etc... to keep his innings low throughout the season...

I'd say

Harang
Arroyo
New Guy
Milton
Bailey

With Claussen starting the year in AAA

assuming that new guy is atleast a decent starter, thats a competitive rotation...

the pen on the other hand...

Betterread
11-23-2006, 11:35 PM
Arroyo
Harang
Lohse
Milton
5th spot - TBD - Claussen (if recovered), Elizardo (if recovered) or a pitcher from another organization

In my opinion, Bailey is not ready to serve as a ML starter until he pitches 7-8 inning stretches consistently (5X or more) in the minors. If all goes well for him, he will be healthy and ready to go in Spring training, and his first few starts of the year will be limited pitch counts while the weather is cool, and then he gets cut loose and excels in AAA. Then the Reds bring him up in July or August, in a best case scenario.

corkedbat
11-24-2006, 01:56 PM
My best guess is we sign a middle-of the road FA (we'll say Padillo just for kicks although I'd love for it to be Lilly) and trade for someone along the lines of Westbrook. I think that at least one or two from among Lohse, Ramierez, Belisle, Milton and Claussen go in a deal for a starter or bat (wouldn't mind seeing Cormier go and bring back Schoenweiss too). I'm thinking at least one from among Milton, Ramierexz and Claussen isn't ready to answer the bell. If WK can move Milton, I'll never say another bad word about him. I've also got a hunch that they make a run at Borowski or Baez in FA or trade for a young guy.

I also think, with a good early season at Louisville, that Bailey is in the 5th spot by the trade dealine, if not sooner

My WAG on the 07 staff (I added an extra spot because there will be at least one injury):

Harang
Arroyo
Westbrook (or other trade acquisition)
Padillo (or other FA pickup)
Lohse or Claussen or Milton
Claussen or Lohse or Belisle or Milton
Cormier or Schoenweiss
Majewski
Stanton
Coffey
Bray
Baez or Borowski

Claussen or Milton starts the season on the DL in extended Spring training and Ramierez starts the season with the Bats if he isn't dealt.

RedLegSuperStar
11-24-2006, 10:45 PM
My best guess is we sign a middle-of the road FA (we'll say Padillo just for kicks although I'd love for it to be Lilly) and trade for someone along the lines of Westbrook. I think that at least one or two from among Lohse, Ramierez, Belisle, Milton and Claussen go in a deal for a starter or bat (wouldn't mind seeing Cormier go and bring back Schoenweiss too). I'm thinking at least one from among Milton, Ramierexz and Claussen isn't ready to answer the bell. If WK can move Milton, I'll never say another bad word about him. I've also got a hunch that they make a run at Borowski or Baez in FA or trade for a young guy.

I also think, with a good early season at Louisville, that Bailey is in the 5th spot by the trade dealine, if not sooner

My WAG on the 07 staff (I added an extra spotvcause htere will be at least one injury):

Harang
Arroyo
Westbrook (or other trade acquisition)
Padillo (or other FA pickup)
Lohse or Claussen or Milton
Claussen or Lohse or Belisle or Milton
Cormier or Schoenweiss
Majewski
Stanton
Coffey
Bray
Baez or Borowski

Claussen or Milton starts the season on the DL in extended Spring training and Ramierez starts the season with the Bats if he isn't dealt.


Who is Padillo? Vicente Padilla??

corkedbat
11-25-2006, 01:31 AM
yep, typo sorry

WMR
01-15-2007, 05:11 AM
It's getting closer ... what's our 5 looking to be now?

Who will occupy which roles in the bully? Bullpen roster?

Moeller v. Hamilton?

Spitball
01-15-2007, 11:02 AM
It's getting closer ... what's our 5 looking to be now?

Who will occupy which roles in the bully? Bullpen roster?

Moeller v. Hamilton?

By May:

Harang, Arroyo
-They will be expected to go 7 plus innings a start, saving the bullpen but likely hurting some of their numbers.

Milton, Lohse
-They will be basically 5 inning pitchers.

Bailey
-He will be on a strict 100 pitch limit.

Closer
-I believe a fading but proven closer will be obtained after spring training roster cuts start.

Moeller vs Hamilton
-Sounds like a high school football game, but I'll guess Moeller is expected to be the starting catcher at triple-A, staying ready in case of injury or trade.
I believe Hamilton will be "developed" with the WMP formula.

flyer85
01-15-2007, 12:25 PM
wow, match up that rotation with a back end of the pen of Stanton and Weathers.

Now I know what that smell is.

KronoRed
01-15-2007, 01:44 PM
Harang-Arroyo-Pray-Pray-Pray

RedsManRick
01-15-2007, 02:56 PM
By May:

Harang, Arroyo
-They will be expected to go 7 plus innings a start, saving the bullpen but likely hurting some of their numbers.

Milton, Lohse
-They will be basically 5 inning pitchers.

Bailey
-He will be on a strict 100 pitch limit.

Closer
-I believe a fading but proven closer will be obtained after spring training roster cuts start.

Moeller vs Hamilton
-Sounds like a high school football game, but I'll guess Moeller is expected to be the starting catcher at triple-A, staying ready in case of injury or trade.
I believe Hamilton will be "developed" with the WMP formula.

What "fading but proven" closers are out there that could be had. Armando Benitez? He is seeming the best pitcher that nobody seems to want. That said, with his .65 GB/FB rate, I could see Dan O'Brien trying to get him to Milwaukee.

M2
01-15-2007, 04:07 PM
Barring injury, you can write Arroyo, Harang, Lohse and Milton in blood. Much as I'd like to see Milton cut, it won't happen. He'll have until at least Memorial Day before the team punches him an out-of-town ticket.

5th starter? I'll pick Victor Santos.

Spitball
01-15-2007, 05:01 PM
What "fading but proven" closers are out there that could be had. Armando Benitez? He is seeming the best pitcher that nobody seems to want. That said, with his .65 GB/FB rate, I could see Dan O'Brien trying to get him to Milwaukee.

Hmmm...I hadn't really thought this one through. Off the top of my head I can think of Todd Jones (losing his job to Zumaya or even Rodney), Troy Percival, Derrick Turnbow, Danny Kolb, Dustin Hermanson, um...

membengal
01-16-2007, 10:51 AM
Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Lizard...and....Paul Wilson?

lollipopcurve
01-16-2007, 11:03 AM
5th starter? I'll pick Victor Santos.

This is my guess too.

If he isn't there in April, he will be eventually, even if it's for a brief, painful Maysian stint.

TRF
01-16-2007, 11:50 AM
Has there been a single thing written about Ramirez' rehab?

I'd like to see Lohse moved to the pen as the setup guy. Coffey 7th, Lohse 8th, let Weathers close until he can't.

Harang
Arroyo
Ramirez
Milton - only until the Reds can force him out of the airlock
Belisle

After Milty is cut loose, Belisle to the #4 spot and give Shearn a chance at the #5.

Danny Serafini
01-16-2007, 12:01 PM
Shearn is an intriguing guy. I'd like to see what he can do, but I wonder if he's going to go into the Chris Booker file. He's produced, but the organization doesn't seem to have any real confidence in him as a Major Leaguer for some reason.