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View Full Version : Baileys Curveball mentioned as one of the best



dunner13
11-22-2006, 03:03 PM
On an espn chat with john manuel of baseball america someone asked who has the best curveball in the minors. The first name he mentioned was homer bailey. Pretty good for a guy whos biggest problem last year was getting a good second pitch.

TOBTTReds
11-22-2006, 03:40 PM
On an espn chat with john manuel of baseball america someone asked who has the best curveball in the minors. The first name he mentioned was homer bailey. Pretty good for a guy whos biggest problem last year was getting a good second pitch.

This is not a shot against you, it is against RZ as a whole:

This deal about "relying on his fastball too much" was the most overblown problem ever. He's always had a plus curve in pro ball. In the futures game, he didn't throw it, and every one blew up about it, including writers who saw that game. If you went to see him play, in Dayton, Sarasota, or Chatt, you would have seen the curve quite a bit. There were a couple games that he worked on his control with his fastball and didnt throw many curves. He also had blister problems throughout the year. He will be alright, and so will his curve.

Team Clark
11-22-2006, 03:41 PM
On an espn chat with john manuel of baseball america someone asked who has the best curveball in the minors. The first name he mentioned was homer bailey. Pretty good for a guy whos biggest problem last year was getting a good second pitch.

It's not that he doesn't "have" the pitch. He had a lot of trouble repeating his breaking ball delivery for a strike. He will though. You just have to keep throwing it until you get a good feel for it. You never know. He may show up in ST and everything falls into place.

Team Clark
11-22-2006, 03:42 PM
This is not a shot against you, it is against RZ as a whole:

This deal about "relying on his fastball too much" was the most overblown problem ever. He's always had a plus curve in pro ball. In the futures game, he didn't throw it, and every one blew up about it, including writers who saw that game. If you went to see him play, in Dayton, Sarasota, or Chatt, you would have seen the curve quite a bit. There were a couple games that he worked on his control with his fastball and didnt throw many curves. He also had blister problems throughout the year. He will be alright, and so will his curve.

Absolute truth. Great post.:thumbup:

dunner13
11-22-2006, 04:01 PM
This is not a shot against you, it is against RZ as a whole:

This deal about "relying on his fastball too much" was the most overblown problem ever. He's always had a plus curve in pro ball. In the futures game, he didn't throw it, and every one blew up about it, including writers who saw that game. If you went to see him play, in Dayton, Sarasota, or Chatt, you would have seen the curve quite a bit. There were a couple games that he worked on his control with his fastball and didnt throw many curves. He also had blister problems throughout the year. He will be alright, and so will his curve.


I do agree with you, I will point out that Wayne K said the development of other pitchers besides fastball was what he needed to work on the most. So to see that he is rated as having a plus fastball and curve is pretty encouraging. He looks like a for real number 1 stud.

cincyinco
11-22-2006, 04:55 PM
Of course he needs to work on his secondary pitches.. but due to the futures game where he threw fastballs only(also becuase he had a blister on his finger, as reported), he gets a rep as not throwing his secondary offerings at all. Which is bogus.

Go read comments from Krivsky from the game in AA he attended close to the end of the year. He states that Bailey mixed in all 3 of his pitches well, and he threw them all for strikes.

Mario-Rijo
11-22-2006, 06:49 PM
If he starts getting that Curve and Change-up going even with 3/4 degree of consistency he will be a sure starter somewhat early on in the season. However I wonder if they (the FO) believes he is ready to throw 200+ innings yet? That seemed to be the other thing that I recognized they were hinting at here and there.

As if Krivsky believes that you should be either a particular age or at a certain point in your physical development (I.E. strength and stamina wise) to pitch at the Major League level and not be in a high risk zone of getting hurt?

TOBTTReds
11-22-2006, 08:05 PM
If he starts getting that Curve and Change-up going even with 3/4 degree of consistency he will be a sure starter somewhat early on in the season. However I wonder if they (the FO) believes he is ready to throw 200+ innings yet? That seemed to be the other thing that I recognized they were hinting at here and there.

As if Krivsky believes that you should be either a particular age or at a certain point in your physical development (I.E. strength and stamina wise) to pitch at the Major League level and not be in a high risk zone of getting hurt?

I certainly don't want him throwing 200 innings next year. Make him a 5th starter and honestly use him as that. To start the season, make his starts "here and there." No need to make him pitch every 5th day. The other thing you can do, is strictly limit him to 95 pitches or so, no matter what has happened in the game. It will be tough to resist, but if he comes out hot in spring, he needs to be in Cincy. If he is in Louisville, he will be pitching every 5th day, and probably 5/6 innings every start

RFS62
11-22-2006, 08:30 PM
Back in the day he would have been brought up and put in the pen to get his feet wet and limit innings pitched.

I doubt that will happen now, but it sure didn't hurt some of the great starters of all time to come up that way.

It was pretty much the Orioles way in the '60's, and they churned out great pitchers like a factory.

dougdirt
11-22-2006, 08:37 PM
I think Bailey will probably get the added bump of 30 innings extra per year, which would put him at about 170 as a target for next season. I think that he will probably start out in Louisville next season but get the call late May-early June. I am sure he will be on a strict pitch count, just like last season.

Willy
11-22-2006, 09:34 PM
Let's say the Reds truely feel that he is going to be with the big club next year, and they believe that they are going to content. Then they should not let him to throw off a mound til mid March, keep him in Fl for extended spring till the first of May, Let him pitch a month in Louisville, bring him up in June and let he Pitch til the end of September hopefully October.

If they know they want him and need him in September, why let him start logging innings in early March???

Highlifeman21
11-22-2006, 11:43 PM
This is not a shot against you, it is against RZ as a whole:

This deal about "relying on his fastball too much" was the most overblown problem ever. He's always had a plus curve in pro ball. In the futures game, he didn't throw it, and every one blew up about it, including writers who saw that game. If you went to see him play, in Dayton, Sarasota, or Chatt, you would have seen the curve quite a bit. There were a couple games that he worked on his control with his fastball and didnt throw many curves. He also had blister problems throughout the year. He will be alright, and so will his curve.

Homer Bailey has 3 pitches. Unfortunately, he can only throw 1 consistently for strikes: his fastball. I'm sure a year in AAA at least will give him the reps he needs to work on his mechanics to develop hopefully his curve into an out-pitch, as well as throwing both his curve and his change consistently for strikes. I think until he's at least able to throw 2 pitches consistently for strikes, he needs to be in the minors.

Thankfully the kid has a great fastball. If he can get Soto to Yoda him into a masterful change, then Bailey just might realize some of the hype surrounding him.

Let's see what 2007 brings for the kid.

The_jbh
11-23-2006, 07:49 PM
going into the draft, Bailey was ranked having the best curve, a 12 to 6 in that whole draft...

Bailey just needs to get better command on it aka throw it for strikes consistently...


its the change up he struggles with

Betterread
11-23-2006, 08:24 PM
Homer Bailey has 3 pitches. Unfortunately, he can only throw 1 consistently for strikes: his fastball. I'm sure a year in AAA at least will give him the reps he needs to work on his mechanics to develop hopefully his curve into an out-pitch, as well as throwing both his curve and his change consistently for strikes. I think until he's at least able to throw 2 pitches consistently for strikes, he needs to be in the minors.

Thankfully the kid has a great fastball. If he can get Soto to Yoda him into a masterful change, then Bailey just might realize some of the hype surrounding him.

Let's see what 2007 brings for the kid.

I believe your criticisms are inaccurate and unfair. Bailey made great improvement from 2005 to 2006 in pitching effectively in the strike zone - his numbers 50 walks in 138 2/3 innings prove this. He not only throws a number of pitches for strikes, he hits the bottom of the strike zone a lot, which is really special and is an indication of his ability to locate his pitches. His mechanics are excellent for all his pitches, and while he needs to work on his strength and stamina so that his mechanics hold up even when he is fatigued, this is something all pitchers need to work on. Contrary to what you say, the Reds better not mess with his mechanics because they are fine. Finally, the problems he has with his two kinds of curveball (from what I have seen and this has been echoed by respected evaluators) are with consistency - he has the ability to throw them for strikes but he hangs a few too many up in the strike zone. This too, is normal for a 20 year old, and something he can work on and improve.

RedsManRick
11-24-2006, 01:26 PM
I like the idea of starting him in the bullpen. It gives him a little more room to adjust to major league hitting, it keeps his innings down, and it also keeps his ego down. I certainly don't know the kid, but everything I've read says he's pretty cocky and I wouldn't want to see his head get too big because of early success. If come June/July, he's pitching well and there's a spot for him in the rotation, sure, move him up.

Redmachine2003
11-25-2006, 08:28 AM
I like the idea of starting him in the bullpen. It gives him a little more room to adjust to major league hitting, it keeps his innings down, and it also keeps his ego down. I certainly don't know the kid, but everything I've read says he's pretty cocky and I wouldn't want to see his head get too big because of early success. If come June/July, he's pitching well and there's a spot for him in the rotation, sure, move him up. I don't like moving Homer to the pen at all. It could be more of a strain on his arm, always warming up and cooling down and then pitching on no set schedule. I would of liked it if they did it at the end of the year to give him a cup of coffee and if it was controlled, like they did with Wagner at first and only pitched on the 3rd day. I think being the 5th starter would work out the best.

Jpup
11-25-2006, 09:32 AM
I hope they leave him in Louisville for the entire 2007 season. What's the rush?

Highlifeman21
11-25-2006, 08:31 PM
I believe your criticisms are inaccurate and unfair. Bailey made great improvement from 2005 to 2006 in pitching effectively in the strike zone - his numbers 50 walks in 138 2/3 innings prove this. He not only throws a number of pitches for strikes, he hits the bottom of the strike zone a lot, which is really special and is an indication of his ability to locate his pitches. His mechanics are excellent for all his pitches, and while he needs to work on his strength and stamina so that his mechanics hold up even when he is fatigued, this is something all pitchers need to work on. Contrary to what you say, the Reds better not mess with his mechanics because they are fine. Finally, the problems he has with his two kinds of curveball (from what I have seen and this has been echoed by respected evaluators) are with consistency - he has the ability to throw them for strikes but he hangs a few too many up in the strike zone. This too, is normal for a 20 year old, and something he can work on and improve.

I never said that his mechanics need to be changed, but rather to constantly reinforce his fundamentals.


I offered a very constructive critique of our future "ace". I'm sorry you don't echo my feelings.