PDA

View Full Version : with all the big money being thrown out how are the reds going to compete?



toledodan
11-25-2006, 10:56 PM
with some of the contracts that were given out last week(mathews,piere) how are the reds going to get decent talent in here? :( i know we got gonzales but it wasn't like all the other teams were knocking down his door. at the rate things are going we may never see a top free agent sign in cincinnati again.:bang:

mth123
11-25-2006, 10:59 PM
with some of the contracts that were given out last week(mathews,piere) how are the reds going to get decent talent in here? :( i know we got gonzales but it wasn't like all the other teams were knocking down his door. at the rate things are going we may never see a top free agent sign in cincinnati again.:bang:

When has one ever?

edabbs44
11-25-2006, 11:05 PM
When has one ever?

Exactly why WK shouldn't be blowing Bob's stash on second rate guys and building for the future.

If they cannot compete in this market...punt and stock the system. See you next year.

toledodan
11-25-2006, 11:06 PM
When has one ever?



i thought we signed greg vaughn as a FA. other than that i don't really know.

toledodan
11-25-2006, 11:11 PM
Exactly why WK shouldn't be blowing Bob's stash on second rate guys and building for the future.

If they cannot compete in this market...punt and stock the system. See you next year.


thats the problem though. it always next year for this club. we were promised:rolleyes: a winning product when we built GABP. i know we have some nice talent coming up with bailey, votto and bruce but that won't do it by itself. as much as i hate to admit it detroit did it the right way. they stocked up on some young talent then overpaid to get the right free agents(pudge,rogers,jones) to put them over.

savafan
11-25-2006, 11:12 PM
i thought we signed greg vaughn as a FA. other than that i don't really know.

Didn't we trade Bret Boone and Reggie Sanders for him?

mth123
11-25-2006, 11:14 PM
i thought we signed greg vaughn as a FA. other than that i don't really know.

Reds got him in a deal with SD for Reggie Sanders among others.

marcshoe
11-25-2006, 11:14 PM
The Reds picked up Vaughn in a trade from San Diego, along with Mark Sweeney for Reggie Sanders and Damian Jackson, I believe.

(okay, everybody answer at once, here.)

Dave Parker was a Free Agent, iirc. There may have been other big names (and no, Eric Milton doesn't count), but my brain's not working right now.

mth123
11-25-2006, 11:19 PM
thats the problem though. it always next year for this club. we were promised:rolleyes: a winning product when we built GABP. i know we have some nice talent coming up with bailey, votto and bruce but that won't do it by itself. as much as i hate to admit it detroit did it the right way. they stocked up on some young talent then overpaid to get the right free agents(pudge,rogers,jones) to put them over.

This is why the Reds need to acquire some guys who can help this year and still be around in a couple years when they may have a group that's ready. Need to use money to keep Harang, Arroyo and Dunn as well. Adding a big $ pitcher now and letting Harang walk because the money is gone would be a mistake IMO. That is why I prefer a trade for more of an up and comer than big bucks for the marginal starters on the board this year.

mth123
11-25-2006, 11:23 PM
The Reds picked up Vaughn in a trade from San Diego, along with Mark Sweeney for Reggie Sanders and Damian Jackson, I believe.

(okay, everybody answer at once, here.)

Dave Parker was a Free Agent, iirc. There may have been other big names (and no, Eric Milton doesn't count), but my brain's not working right now.

Dave Parker doesn't count either IMO. He was coming off three drug filled below average years in a row and turned it back around in Cincy. His market was down and he had a hometown connection. Not the same as going out and getting a big fish IMO.

MWM
11-25-2006, 11:48 PM
The reason all this cash is being spent is because ALL the teams have more money. What we're seeing isn't a separation of available cash for players by larger market teams, but an overall market adjustment. Where the Reds rank comparatively shouldn't be any different now than where it has been the last few years. And what we're learning is that when some organizations get a little extra money in their pocket, they can't wait to spend it. It's like when my daighter earns an extra $10 and goes and spend it on the first Bratz doll she sees at Target.

this organization shouldn't have any problem competing with organizations who are spending $55MM on the likes of Gary Matthews and $45 on Juan Pierre. Heck, I wish those were the teams in the Reds division.

marcshoe
11-25-2006, 11:53 PM
Every time I read that Matthews number, I'm overwhelmed by congnitive dissonance to the point that the room begins to spin counter-clockwise (it usually spins clockwise).

Just imagine what the numbers would be like if this was a particularly good free agent market.

I keep thinking that, if I'm going to get into the market, I'd rather pay Schmidt 13 million than pay Lilly 10 million. He'll end up on the coast, though.

MWM
11-25-2006, 11:57 PM
Just imagine what the numbers would be like if this was a particularly good free agent market.

I think it would be about the same. Teams have money and they're going to spend it on whoever's available - supply and demand.

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 12:02 AM
I think it would be about the same. Teams have money and they're going to spend it on whoever's available - supply and demand.

That's right. It's certainly possible that even better players will get less relatively speaking next year. In the end, people spend what they have.

RedsManRick
11-26-2006, 10:35 AM
Luckily we play against other players, and not dollar bills. Unless a few select teams are concentrating talent, or if we're now less able to participate in FA than we were previously, the upswing in the market doesn't say much for our competitiveness.

Kc61
11-26-2006, 11:34 AM
Exactly why WK shouldn't be blowing Bob's stash on second rate guys and building for the future.

If they cannot compete in this market...punt and stock the system. See you next year.


What happens next year? Free agents become cheap? Are you predicting a baseball recession? Owner collusion? The demise of the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Angels as competitors for free agents? Exactly what will be different next year. Better free agents? If so, they will attract even larger contracts.

As for "stocking the system," how exactly does that happen? The Reds best trade chips ARE in its system. Or perhaps folks want to trade Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, Freel and EE -- probably the only five marketable players -- for some youngsters, leaving essentially no first tier major league talent at all. It's an approach, but you'd better be willing to watch 4 or 5 years of last place teams. Frankly, I'm not.

This owner came in saying he was tired of losing. The market is what it is. If he can't compete for talent, he should flip the team to someone who can. As a fan, I have no interest in saving the Reds' money. My only concern is that, when they spend, they pick good players so maybe the spiral of losing will end.

Kc61
11-26-2006, 12:24 PM
Luckily we play against other players, and not dollar bills. Unless a few select teams are concentrating talent, or if we're now less able to participate in FA than we were previously, the upswing in the market doesn't say much for our competitiveness.

But the Astros were better than the Reds already. So far, they have fixed their single major problem, getting a power guy to tandem with Berkman.

The Cubs had a down year. So they are aggressively out there and have added a major offensive star. Now, if they get healthy, they'll have Soriano, Ramirez and DLee in the middle of the order.

The Cards haven't done much. But you know they will. They probably got a late start, celebrating a world championship.

The competition is getting better, or trying to in a big way.

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 12:32 PM
But the Astros were better than the Reds already. So far, they have fixed their single major problem, getting a power guy to tandem with Berkman.

The Cubs had a down year. So they are aggressively out there and have added a major offensive star. Now, if they get healthy, they'll have Soriano, Ramirez and DLee in the middle of the order.

The Cards haven't done much. But you know they will. They probably got a late start, celebrating a world championship.

The competition is getting better, or trying to in a big way.

Yes, while the Reds are getting smaller and unsexier.

However, if you believe Krivsky, those are the moves that bring a winner.

My guess is that Castellini saw the dinky crowds turning out in the heat of a pennant race and has been convinced to build a winner from the bottom up. That will please a lot of fans on here, but it certainly could lead to years and years of Brewer-esque wheel-spinning.

edabbs44
11-26-2006, 01:49 PM
What happens next year? Free agents become cheap? Are you predicting a baseball recession? Owner collusion? The demise of the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Angels as competitors for free agents? Exactly what will be different next year. Better free agents? If so, they will attract even larger contracts.

As for "stocking the system," how exactly does that happen? The Reds best trade chips ARE in its system. Or perhaps folks want to trade Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, Freel and EE -- probably the only five marketable players -- for some youngsters, leaving essentially no first tier major league talent at all. It's an approach, but you'd better be willing to watch 4 or 5 years of last place teams. Frankly, I'm not.

This owner came in saying he was tired of losing. The market is what it is. If he can't compete for talent, he should flip the team to someone who can. As a fan, I have no interest in saving the Reds' money. My only concern is that, when they spend, they pick good players so maybe the spiral of losing will end.

Maybe Bob should hire Florida's front office, since they destroyed their ML team last season and were in the same race as Cincy.

Dunn and Freel, if able to bring back some young talent, can pack their stuff. Same with Jr, and he doesn't even have to bring that much back. Hatte should never have been resigned. Stanton and Gonzalez are absolute wastes of money.

If WK can't lure decent FAs to Cincy, then get some young guys who don't have a choice thru trades and draft picks. What's the point of boosting payroll to $70 million if all that is going to do is get an over the hill bullpen arm and a no hit SS? Save that money and draft the best talent next year. Send some scouts to DR or Argentina and outbid everyone for players who could be the next Cabrera or Johan. If AGon is worth a few more wins than Juan Castro, does anyone honestly believe that he will be the difference in playoff status with the way the pitching staff is? I seriously doubt it.

RBA
11-26-2006, 01:58 PM
When has one ever?

Eric Milton? :devil:

mth123
11-26-2006, 02:35 PM
But the Astros were better than the Reds already. So far, they have fixed their single major problem, getting a power guy to tandem with Berkman.

The Cubs had a down year. So they are aggressively out there and have added a major offensive star. Now, if they get healthy, they'll have Soriano, Ramirez and DLee in the middle of the order.

The Cards haven't done much. But you know they will. They probably got a late start, celebrating a world championship.

The competition is getting better, or trying to in a big way.

But the Astros need to replace Clemens and Pettite, so they may have addressed last year's weakness, but the boat has sprung a new leak IMO.

The Cubs could be improved significantly. Especially if this is the year that Prior stays healthy. Right now I think the Cubs look tougher than the Astros.

The Cardinals have losses in the rotation getting a lot of attention, but most of those guys were awful. Just about anyone they sign could be an upgrade. Reyes and Wainwright are already IMO.

Kc61
11-26-2006, 02:41 PM
Maybe Bob should hire Florida's front office, since they destroyed their ML team last season and were in the same race as Cincy.

Dunn and Freel, if able to bring back some young talent, can pack their stuff. Same with Jr, and he doesn't even have to bring that much back. Hatte should never have been resigned. Stanton and Gonzalez are absolute wastes of money.

If WK can't lure decent FAs to Cincy, then get some young guys who don't have a choice thru trades and draft picks. If AGon is worth a few more wins than Juan Castro, does anyone honestly believe that he will be the difference in playoff status with the way the pitching staff is? I seriously doubt it.

The Reds haven't been in the playoffs for 11 years. They have two very strong starting pitchers, which is the key to any team. They also have a good, fairly young infield at key positions. This is a plus.

If they spend wisely, add a couple of key pieces (another starter, a closer, one more bat), they can be in the race. Then, in a year or two, if their youth comes through (Bailey, Bruce, Votto, etc.) they could be very good.

The problem with going totally young is that there is no guarantee that your youngsters will turn out any better than your current team. So IMO the better approach is to mix youth with experience. (All the current Fla team has proven is that they can be decent; ultimately, as in the last Fla regime, they will have to spend some money to be better than that.)

The Reds have lived through an ownership/front office that didn't really improve the major league team. The promise of the new guys is that they will do so. I'd be grossly disappointed if they now say we are "priced out of the market" and can only make minor moves.

redsfanmia
11-26-2006, 03:55 PM
John Smiley was a big time free agent when we signed him. I just cant honestly see the Reds competing anytime soon, last year was it and they blew it. The longer this new ownership is here the more it seems like the old ownership. The more things change the more they stay the same.

Joseph
11-26-2006, 04:55 PM
John Smiley was a big time free agent when we signed him. I just cant honestly see the Reds competing anytime soon, last year was it and they blew it. The longer this new ownership is here the more it seems like the old ownership. The more things change the more they stay the same.

Wow, just wow. This ownership may never win, I can't say they will or won't, but they aren't at all like the old ownership. How many times did Lindner and Co. go on the radio to pimp Redsfest? Never. How many press conferences did Lindner attend? Few, Griffey, the GM[?] not nearly the amount Cast and Co. have attended in their first year on the job.

Cast may not be a Steinbrenner who will try to win no matter what the cost, be he's not a Lindner who is just content to own the team and hand out free tickets to kids who make A's.

Aronchis
11-26-2006, 05:16 PM
John Smiley was a big time free agent when we signed him. I just cant honestly see the Reds competing anytime soon, last year was it and they blew it. The longer this new ownership is here the more it seems like the old ownership. The more things change the more they stay the same.

I would argue this represents the illness of the Reds "fan" right now. The unwillingness to really rebuild and accept rebuilding as what it is. Restocking, redeveloping and organizational creating a winning culture first in the minors then the majors.

Krivsky's model seems to be one of serviceable abilities to create a less awfull product in the medium. Arroyo IMO is a classic transitional player to make things a little less rough to take, as is Stanton. Harang may be similiar. These guys are not talents that will define a organization and they are not peeking at the right time when modest core talent has been established. Hence tradeable players over the next few seasons why Krivsky and Cast throw money into building up the farm probably at a rate not seen since Howsom.

I expect Krivsky already has his core players "picked" out that are here in the organization already and who he is eventually going to move at some point. While Gonzo represents a stopgap to somebody more talented can take over, transition is transition. This may be a season when the Reds are pretty much doomed from the beginning but not unexpected at this stage.

The Reds have a long way to go and Wayne has much work to do. He has made some bizzare(if not bad) moves, but it will be business as usual if he doesn't actually try and rebuild.

traderumor
11-26-2006, 05:20 PM
I have seen some big contracts. I have not seen a signing that affects the Reds chances in the Central yet.

redsfanmia
11-26-2006, 05:24 PM
The Reds are afraid to actually rebuild. If the Reds would actually rebuild I would have no beef with it but they never go all the way, they just half butt rebuild. If the Reds were truly interested in rebuilding they would have dealt Harang and Dunn by now. The Reds cant spend the money on free agents so they have to build through the draft and trades but they wont totally commit to it. Do a Florida Marlins and I would be cool with it.

Cast and Co. maybe more visible but raising ticket prices and the ticket premium has really put a bad taste in my mouth. The whole lip service last season about adding payroll if they were close puts a bad taste in my mouth. So far all I have really seen from Cast and Co. is a dog and pony show. I really had high hopes at the beggining of last season but my hopes are now right back to where they were when Uncle Carl was here.

redsfanmia
11-26-2006, 05:26 PM
I have seen some big contracts. I have not seen a signing that affects the Reds chances in the Central yet.

The Reds are playing for 4th place next season, anything higher would be a major success.

traderumor
11-26-2006, 05:38 PM
The Reds are playing for 4th place next season, anything higher would be a major success.I really don't know what they are playing for in November. What I do know is that Soriano will fit right in with the hacking Cubs and the Astros have more problems on offense still to fill before the Carlos Lee signing can make a significant impact.

M2
11-26-2006, 05:54 PM
Frankly, I'm not really sure the Cubs or Astros have made themselves all that much better via free agency. I've never been a major Carlos Lee fan, though he'll improve the Houston hitting. Yet if Roger Clemens is gone then it's going to take a lot more than Carlos Lee to outscore what the Astros pitchers allow.

Soriano in CF is a a tragedy waiting to unfold. Plus the Cubs were HORRIBLE last season and one guy isn't going to change that.

Anyway, the Reds needed to stay away from the FA market and let other clubs pound their heads against that rock. Where Krivsky needs to score is in the trade market. The Reds can't buy their way out of the hole they've been in and they aren't in a position to develop their way out of it anytime soon either. Krisky's got to peddle the flesh.

GAC
11-26-2006, 06:02 PM
But the Astros need to replace Clemens and Pettite, so they may have addressed last year's weakness, but the boat has sprung a new leak IMO.

The Astros are probably the only team, somewhat comparable to the Reds, that have made any type of splash in this year's market.

And they absolutely filled a dire need (offensive) in acquiring Lee. But at the same time, do they have the money resources to resign those two pitchers, or for that matter, go out an acquire guys to replace them?

Because as you mention - they have filled one need, but may have sprung a leak elsewhere.

On a different front....

The Reds are not the only team that has been unable to jump into this "wild and crazy" market. Yet many seem to think they are.

Take a good hard look at WHO is. It's pretty much the same old small handful of teams.

I don't know what kind of money Castellini has committed to spending this off-season? I've heard it rumored it could be around 20 Mil. Whether that is true or not, I don't know.

But using that figure, do they also have to use some of it to address those arb eligible cases? If so, then that will drop it.

The problem is the market.

The big market teams set the market standards. They always have, and they always will. That is the way MLB and the union likes it too. Their logic is that it will force the smaller teams, if they want to compete, to also spend the money.

I believe that Cast/Kriv are committed and have no reservations at spending the money for the right player(s).

I can't sit around here and cry that markets like the Cubs, LA, and others are spending the big bucks and throwing money around, while we haven't.

That is the way it has always been.

The Red's FO, in the last 6 years has spent money too. They just didn't spend it wisely, and issued some bad contracts. A couple that they are still trying to get out from under.

They need to direct every financial resource this year at filling one dire need on this team..... pitching.

They can try to work a deal and trade for it (like the Brewer deal I posted earlier), OR....

They have to get it somewhere in this market, and probably overpay for it.

Doesn't anyone else find it strange or peculiar, seeing the pitchers that are available in this FA market, that no one seems to be trying to gobble them up?

Are they waiting for someone else to make the first move?

GAC
11-26-2006, 06:03 PM
I have seen some big contracts.

Yep. Some big BAD ones. ;)

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 06:05 PM
Is Pettitte for sure a goner in Houston?

Spring~Fields
11-26-2006, 07:06 PM
What happens next year? Free agents become cheap? Are you predicting a baseball recession? Owner collusion? The demise of the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Angels as competitors for free agents? Exactly what will be different next year. Better free agents? If so, they will attract even larger contracts.

As for "stocking the system," how exactly does that happen? The Reds best trade chips ARE in its system. Or perhaps folks want to trade Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, Freel and EE -- probably the only five marketable players -- for some youngsters, leaving essentially no first tier major league talent at all. It's an approach, but you'd better be willing to watch 4 or 5 years of last place teams. Frankly, I'm not.

This owner came in saying he was tired of losing. The market is what it is. If he can't compete for talent, he should flip the team to someone who can. As a fan, I have no interest in saving the Reds' money. My only concern is that, when they spend, they pick good players so maybe the spiral of losing will end.

You’re pointing to what I keep wondering because I agree with you.

No money, no players to really trade to get something of real value in return. Leaving the Reds as they have been somewhere within the range of the teams from 2001-2006 on the win record. The rest are just talking in circles unless Krivsky can pull some real rabbits out of his hat.

Kc61
11-26-2006, 07:16 PM
I would argue this represents the illness of the Reds "fan" right now. The unwillingness to really rebuild and accept rebuilding as what it is. Restocking, redeveloping and organizational creating a winning culture first in the minors then the majors.

The Reds have a long way to go and Wayne has much work to do. He has made some bizzare(if not bad) moves, but it will be business as usual if he doesn't actually try and rebuild.

In 2006, "rebuilding" -- in the sense of scrapping the major league team and going completely "young" -- is a fiction. At best, it leads to a couple of decent years and then a collapse when you refuse to sign your players. At worst, you become a bad young team with no stars and no wins.

The consistently good teams have good farms but are also not afraid to spend for key players. Look at the Cards. When the Reds wouldn't pay Rolen, the Cards got him and he has been a mainstay. They also have acquired and developed youngsters. But they know that you can't rely on any single means of acquiring/developing talent.

All those saying the team is hopeless right now, and should just go for kids, are ignoring that the team ERA dramatically improved in 2006. The pitching is now, at least, in a reasonable range (as compared with 2004 and 05) and with another good starter could actually be pretty decent. There is no reason to give up on this team. Rather, the Reds should build on it.

GAC
11-26-2006, 07:49 PM
Is the money that some teams are spending in this market causing some teams to rethink their off-season strategy?

Besides the Reds, you have so many teams tryin gto fill holes that it has become a sellers market. Teams that might have been fearful that tradable players wouldn't bring enough are now finding out differently. And due to the expensiveness of the current market may find it easier to part with certain players whose worth is now inflated.

i.e. try to take advantage of it.

And if there is not enough available in this FA market to fill needs, then the only option left is trades?

Trades that we may not start seeing until the winter meetings reconvene?

vaticanplum
11-26-2006, 07:58 PM
Is Pettitte for sure a goner in Houston?

No, not for sure. He's a free agent but I've heard an inordinate amount of retirement talk surrounding him. More retirement talk than rumors of any team, including the Astros, expressing interest.

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 07:59 PM
The consistently good teams have good farms but are also not afraid to spend for key players. Look at the Cards.
.

Hell, look at every single team that's meant a damn in the last decade (aside from the 2003 Marlins--but I wouldn't go counting on that method working more than once a decade or two).

Ron Madden
11-26-2006, 08:01 PM
Kearns and Lopez sure would be two pretty nice trading chips to have right about now.

Redsland
11-26-2006, 08:34 PM
Kearns and Lopez sure would be two pretty nice trading chips to have right about now.
Better than Clayton and Majewski?

:help:

Chip R
11-26-2006, 08:38 PM
I think Clemens is going to do the same thing he did last year. Pettite too, perhaps.

GAC
11-26-2006, 08:39 PM
Anyway, the Reds needed to stay away from the FA market and let other clubs pound their heads against that rock. Where Krivsky needs to score is in the trade market. The Reds can't buy their way out of the hole they've been in and they aren't in a position to develop their way out of it anytime soon either. Krisky's got to peddle the flesh.

Excellent point, and more need to see/realize this.

Many Red fans see the Cubs buying a Soriano and the Astros buying a Lee, and wonder where are the Reds. And they both spent a huge chunk of change. But even they haven't "bought" themselves out of their dilemma (especially the Cubs).

I still believe the Reds, IF the right moves are made (combination of: trades, market acquisitions, young player development) are a couple years away from digging out of this hole.

Too much is being expected, and with a terrible buyers market.

Redmachine2003
11-26-2006, 08:47 PM
Lets start with signing Harang to long term deal. Develop Homer and another starter. You have Votto and Jay Bruce on the way. You already have EE and Deno. You have Dunn and Bronson as trading chips if you can't resign them to longer deals, and if you have to move them that is another 12 million plus in payroll. You have Milton coming off the Books and Jr coming of the books in a couple of years and that is another 21 million. I believe the Reds have a good foundation to continue to build and payroll flexability to have a good team as long as Wayne makes some smart moves.

mth123
11-26-2006, 08:59 PM
Is the money that some teams are spending in this market causing some teams to rethink their off-season strategy?

Besides the Reds, you have so many teams tryin gto fill holes that it has become a sellers market. Teams that might have been fearful that tradable players wouldn't bring enough are now finding out differently. And due to the expensiveness of the current market may find it easier to part with certain players whose worth is now inflated.

i.e. try to take advantage of it.

And if there is not enough available in this FA market to fill needs, then the only option left is trades?

Trades that we may not start seeing until the winter meetings reconvene?

I think this is exactly right. Kyle Lohse may be an example. During the season he appeared to be a guy who was paid way too much for what he is worth, but in this market he may have moved from non-tender candidate to legit trade bait. I'm hoping for 2 or 3 trades that move some guys who either looked unmoveable (Lohse, Cormier, maybe even Griffey but doubtful due to 10-5 status) or have had their value jump through the roof due to market considerations (Freel, Ross maybe, Majewski).

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 09:07 PM
Excellent point, and more need to see/realize this.


Oh I understand that perfectly well.

But I wouldn't nix it as an avenue of improving the team just on principle.

The Reds are going to have to attack on ALL fronts if they want to turn this thing around, including FA.

GAC
11-26-2006, 09:12 PM
Oh I understand that perfectly well.

But I wouldn't nix it as an avenue of improving the team just on principle.

The Reds are going to have to attack on ALL fronts if they want to turn this thing around, including FA.

I agree. It has to be the right mix.

What should the Reds, for the most part, be pursuing and directing their financial resources towards in this current FA market?

IMO.... starting pitching.

But I have yet to see anyone jumping all over those FA pitchers that are available. Why?

Too expensive for average pitchers? Waiting for someone else to make the first move? Or instead trying to work out a trade deal instead using what player resources they may have?

Most of the FA pitchers available.... the Weavers, Suppans, etc., are looking to make a kill in this market with long term contracts and huge dollars. I hope the Reds do take a pass, and possibly try to work on a trade with what some call those "second tier" pitchers that may be available.

I'd rather see the Reds take a pass and go into the '07 season with the pitchers they have, while continuing to develop kids like Bailey, then commit to a foolish contract to any of the above.

Caveat Emperor
11-26-2006, 09:20 PM
The consistently good teams have good farms but are also not afraid to spend for key players. Look at the Cards. When the Reds wouldn't pay Rolen, the Cards got him and he has been a mainstay. They also have acquired and developed youngsters. But they know that you can't rely on any single means of acquiring/developing talent.

There's a differnece between not being "afraid to spend for key players" and restraining from throwing piles and piles of money at someone who doesn't fix the problem. This team isn't 1 player away -- WK can't just go out and give Barry Zito a blank check and expect that one signing to magically make this team a playoff front runner.

So, what you're really talking about is spending for 3 or 4 key players (a starter, an outfield bat, a right-handed first baseman, and a fireball bullpener at minimum), and there really isn't a team in baseball outside of New York or Boston that can afford to make that kind of an overhaul on the free agent market.

The Reds problems didn't develop overnight -- they were the result of years and years of poor drafting, underfunding of player development, and bad free agent contracts. They certainly aren't going to be solved overnight, or in the first month of the offseason, at any rate.

vaticanplum
11-26-2006, 09:41 PM
WK can't just go out and give Barry Zito a blank check and expect that one signing to magically make this team a playoff front runner.

Zito, for the record, is the single player in all of baseball that I believe would offer the strongest chance for overnight jubilation. So to speak. That's why I've been advocating the Reds going after him for so long. A Harang-Arroyo-Zito rotation would belittle an awful lot of the rest of the problems on this team, plus it is superfun to say.

No, but I understand your point. I don't advocate a passive offseason by the Reds at all (and that's not going to happen anyway, for better or worse). But I don't think this team should expect to contend in 2007; in fact, I don't really think it would be wise to operate on such an assumption. 2008 could be terrific if the blocks are in place by then. One year of building is not a very big price to pay.

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 09:45 PM
One year of building is not a very big price to pay.

Well, it would be two years.

But, as they say, who's counting?

RedsManRick
11-26-2006, 09:51 PM
The market controls the price of talent, not the amount of it. The fact that Lohse might be "worth" 5-6MM as a free agent doesn't make him any better a pitcher or any rarer a commodity. It just means that if you do have a somewhat limited relative budget, mistakes at the bottom of the free agent pool hurt a little bit more than they used to.

vaticanplum
11-26-2006, 09:54 PM
Well, it would be two years.

But, as they say, who's counting?

The accidental contention of this year makes it a little bit different, I think. It could help the team or hurt them in the court of casual public opinion. Could hurt because the public may think this team was better than it really was, and will surprise them if the Reds (because of a stronger division) do not compete in 2007, though I honestly don't know that enough people paid enough attention to make that big a difference. But it could help in a way, because it didn't appear to be strictly a rebuilding year, even though all the moves would dictate that it was.

My problem is that when I think of the contracts we'll be rid of soon and our meager but potentially great cheap young talent coming up, and the fact that holes in this team now resemble Limberger Swiss cheese rather than xcore Swiss cheese, I get a little too excited. In truth I do not want a single WS title. I want a dynasty, I want five years of playoffs in a row, I want complete-game shutouts and Game 7 walk-off home runs in the World Series. I want the freaking farm and the wedding cake too. The Reds can't build a team like that for next season, but they can put the pieces in place for one to start on that a couple of years from now. I'm not always a fan of caution, particularly since I think this division is still pretty weak...but in this case I think that would be wise. Which I guess speaks well of my opinion of the state of the Reds overall, bizarrely enough, that I think they have enough building blocks in place to have the kind of team I want in a couple of years. That is if -- IF -- the moves they make are smart ones.

Willy
11-26-2006, 10:38 PM
Kearns and Lopez sure would be two pretty nice trading chips to have right about now.


http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f93/coexerj145/Forums/deadhorse.gif


How much longer do we have to hear about this? Everytime a good discussion breaks out this gets thrown out. We talked about it and talked about. Some agree it was bad, some say not so bad. Let's please move on to the current situation.

M2
11-26-2006, 10:42 PM
How much longer do we have to hear about this? Everytime a good discussion breaks out this gets thrown out. We talked about it and talked about. Some agree it was bad, some say not so bad. Let's please move on to the current situation.

Seeing that the team's current bind (short on disposable talent in the winter trade market) is a direct result of that trade, my guess is you'll continue to hear about it. It's the move from which Wayne Krivsky must rebound.

Spring~Fields
11-26-2006, 10:53 PM
Too much is being expected, and with a terrible buyers market.

I am not expecting anything.

I just have one simple question and one simple hope. The question is, when will the Reds start winning more games than they lose, the hope is tied to the question, I hope they start winning more games than they lose. Is 82-80 too much to ask? When might that happen? Hasn't the Reds organization been trying to accomplish that for six straight seasons now regardless of the Griffey or Milton contracts?

Can someone tell me what season the Reds will start winning more games than they lose, 2007, 2008, 2009 ? Doesn't seem to be too much to ask. I see a lot of arguments but when will they start winning more than they lose. Is it alright with everyone if they keep losing for another few years?

Ron Madden
11-27-2006, 05:40 AM
http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f93/coexerj145/Forums/deadhorse.gif


How much longer do we have to hear about this? Everytime a good discussion breaks out this gets thrown out. We talked about it and talked about. Some agree it was bad, some say not so bad. Let's please move on to the current situation.


Sorry Willy,

But it's the truth, and the truth sometimes hurts.

Given this winter trade market the lose of those chips continue to haunt this team and many of it's fans. I'll try to say no more about it.

RANDY IN INDY
11-27-2006, 08:48 AM
http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f93/coexerj145/Forums/deadhorse.gif


How much longer do we have to hear about this? Everytime a good discussion breaks out this gets thrown out. We talked about it and talked about. Some agree it was bad, some say not so bad. Let's please move on to the current situation.

Most creative dead horse argument I've seen in a while, and I agree.:beerme:

MartyFan
11-27-2006, 02:40 PM
I still don't see where this is a bad trade...at least not yet...don't get me wrong it could go real bad but in all fairness Kearns never did anything while he was here in Cincy except show potential....Lopez was average...Wagner...eh?

Sure Bray amd Majik have done nothing so far either but in all honesty this deal has another season to go before we see the reality of it.

Yes, add this post to the "beating of a dead horse" tragedy of 2006.

Willy
11-27-2006, 03:18 PM
Sorry Willy,

But it's the truth, and the truth sometimes hurts.

Given this winter trade market the lose of those chips continue to haunt this team and many of it's fans. I'll try to say no more about it.

I wanted to apologize to Ron, I did not mean to single him out.

NJReds
11-27-2006, 03:48 PM
The Reds aren't the only team trying to find their way in this market. In fact, among the 'small market' teams, the Reds have been the most active.

This from SI:


Not to beat an old subject to death here, but when you look at the biggest spenders and shakers in the market so far, you're looking at teams like the Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Angels and Astros. All were in the top 10 in payroll last season.

The bottom 10 in payroll last season have signed a total of three free agents in this still young offseason; Kaz Matsui re-signed with the Rockies for $1.5 million, and the Reds went wild signing both shortstop Gonzalez and reliever Mike Stanton. Whoopee!

Hoosier Red
11-27-2006, 04:11 PM
Too expensive for average pitchers? Waiting for someone else to make the first move? Or instead trying to work out a trade deal instead using what player resources they may have?


I think this is exactly why the Reds need to find the one pitcher they are comfortable signing, and give him a contract that's about 10-15% above the accepted market for that player. Whether it's Zito, Schmidt, Lilly, or whoever, it doesn't matter. Find the pitcher you want, give them an offer before the rest of the league catches up, and you've taken care of one big problem.
Harang, Arroyo, X, blech, Bailey, looks a lot better than Harang, Arroyo, blech, blech, Bailey.

Edit: not only does this reduce the amount of time Blech is giving up runs. Only pitching one day out of 5 will definately save his arm.

Falls City Beer
11-27-2006, 04:14 PM
I think this is exactly why the Reds need to find the one pitcher they are comfortable signing, and give him a contract that's about 10-15% above the accepted market for that player. Whether it's Zito, Schmidt, Lilly, or whoever, it doesn't matter. Find the pitcher you want, give them an offer before the rest of the league catches up, and you've taken care of one big problem.
Harang, Arroyo, X, blech, Bailey, looks a lot better than Harang, Arroyo, blech, blech, Bailey.

Edit: not only does this reduce the amount of time Blech is giving up runs. Only pitching one day out of 5 will definately save his arm.


Yes, (blech), I agree (blech). :beerme:

GAC
11-27-2006, 09:28 PM
I am not expecting anything.

I just have one simple question and one simple hope. The question is, when will the Reds start winning more games than they lose, the hope is tied to the question, I hope they start winning more games than they lose. Is 82-80 too much to ask? When might that happen? Hasn't the Reds organization been trying to accomplish that for six straight seasons now regardless of the Griffey or Milton contracts?

Can someone tell me what season the Reds will start winning more games than they lose, 2007, 2008, 2009 ? Doesn't seem to be too much to ask. I see a lot of arguments but when will they start winning more than they lose. Is it alright with everyone if they keep losing for another few years?

He might be able to tell you. I'm not that smart. :lol:

http://members.chello.nl/e.n.secasiu/Index%20files/nostradamus.jpg

Spring~Fields
11-27-2006, 09:33 PM
He might be able to tell you. I'm not that smart. :lol:

http://members.chello.nl/e.n.secasiu/Index%20files/nostradamus.jpg

Where's the "C H I C K E N" icon ;) and I waited all day for that answer.

I kept it short for you, only 3 years shezzz, I guess Nostradamus is a Freudian slip for ones subconscious belief that it will be many decades if not centuries into the future before they win more than they lose. :help:

GAC
11-27-2006, 10:02 PM
Where's the "C H I C K E N" icon ;) and I waited all day for that answer.

3rd shifter remember? I hibernate during the day. ;)

Besides, I've already hinted to you how long I think it might take. And unlike Nostradmus, my predictions don't have to wait till after I'm dead to come true. :lol:

Valid question: Looking at a team like the Reds, and the shape/condition they are in, and which Castellini/Krivsky inherited......

How long should it take them, or should they be given, to correct the problem and/or see positive steps?

Some seem to think IMMEDIATE.

Do you acknowledge that this team has some huge hole/deficiencies that can't be filled right away, or are going to take time?

Also.... can the market really help us AT THIS TIME to fill those needs without breaking the bank and/or setting this team back?

Some are frustrated and upset that they haven't jumped head first into one crazy market where, for the most part, marginal players are getting ridiculous salaries.

We need pitching. None of us have any idea what this FO is trying to accomplish behind the scenes to address that issue (make a trade, etc).

Are you saying they should AT LEAST throw money at a Weaver, Suppan, or similar type pitcher just to show the fans they are serious wen they say they want to win and are trying to do something?

Krivsky could easily do that and make people forget that Milton deal.

I'm sure Krivsky wakes up every morning saying to himself.... "I thought we were rid of this guy while in Minnesota!" :lol:

Like I told you previously SF.....

To many issues need to be addressed on this team to be resolved in one off-season. And while they may have more money to spend, it still must be done wisely and not foolishly.

I don't want this FO, which has done so in the past, to be like that wide-eyed kid running around Toys R Us, with a pocket full of money from the grandparents, trying to find something/anything to spend that money when the item they really want isn't available. But they don't want to leave the store empty handed, which would be the best thing to do AT THE TIME. ;)

Spring~Fields
11-27-2006, 10:10 PM
3rd shifter remember? I hibernate during the day. ;)

Besides, I've already hinted to you how long I think it might take. And unlike Nostradmus, my predictions don't have to wait till after I'm dead to come true. :lol:



I did not want to be so bold, but, it had entered my mind,
long after we are dead is becoming a real concern.
:devil:

Ron Madden
11-27-2006, 10:29 PM
I wanted to apologize to Ron, I did not mean to single him out.

No need to apologise. We are all Reds Fans here. :beerme:

Spring~Fields
11-27-2006, 10:33 PM
Do you acknowledge that this team has some huge hole/deficiencies that can't be filled right away, or are going to take time? Yes of course I am a faithful reader of Redszone and can read that it will be some years from now if everything goes right.


Also.... can the market really help us AT THIS TIME to fill those needs without breaking the bank and/or setting this team back? Depends on how good of a negotiator Krivsky is, there are some role players that could help the Reds bench. Pitching has been out of sight, so that is another problematic area.


Some are frustrated and upset that they haven't jumped head first into one crazy market where, for the most part, marginal players are getting ridiculous salaries. I think that the prices took most of us by surprise, otherwise it was normal for some of us to be erroneously optimistic based on Castellini's spin doctoring.


We need pitching. None of us have any idea what this FO is trying to accomplish behind the scenes to address that issue (make a trade, etc). True, especially since we have seen no signs of them making any substantial moves, not even resigning Weathers or Scott Schoeneweis who some even you believed that they had done a decent job for Cincy.


Are you saying they should AT LEAST throw money at a Weaver, Suppan, or similar type pitcher just to show the fans they are serious wen they say they want to win and are trying to do something? Certainly not Weaver, I am not sure about the price tag on Suppan. When the other possibles started hitting the reported 10 mil mark with many years attached to that number I lost interest, then assuming the Reds could not afford them.


Krivsky could easily do that and make people forget that Milton deal. Krivsky needs to decide on a plan for action and to stick to it, if he is rebuilding then rebuild, if he is win now mode, then do what it takes to win now. Most of all he needs to stay out of other teams garbage bins, the only thing in those are yesterdays news and medical bills.


Like I told you previously SF.....

To many issues need to be addressed on this team to be resolved in one off-season. And while they may have more money to spend, it still must be done wisely and not foolishly. I have faith in his financial people and Castellini's business experience along with their fellow investors that they know how to spend wisely to produce a good product and increased profits as a return to investors. The teams has issues that need to be addressed with temporary upgrades, until they can have more long term solutions, the days of dynasties are gone. They need to produce something of a product for their fans. Krivsky though here a short time before last spring training brought to many broken pieces north and then had to DFA them and that was a waste of time and money, he should have never brought them north under "win now", then he proceeded to pickup other discards that has brought his credibility or competency into question and again he is doing it this off season. That is why the fans are getting rattled, they see a repeat.


I don't want this FO, which has done so in the past, to be like that wide-eyed kid running around Toys R Us, with a pocket full of money from the grandparents, trying to find something/anything to spend that money when the item they really want isn't available.

They are already doing that. In the past it might have been a Donney or a Deion, today it is a Moeller or Bubba.

GAC
11-28-2006, 10:40 AM
I don't want this FO, which has done so in the past, to be like that wide-eyed kid running around Toys R Us, with a pocket full of money from the grandparents, trying to find something/anything to spend that money when the item they really want isn't available.


They are already doing that. In the past it might have been a Donney or a Deion, today it is a Moeller or Bubba.

C'mon.... what money has he blown on these two? Not enough to hurt this team or prevent them from spending if/when needed.

Guys like Moeller and Crosby are those cheap candy items you snag up at the cash register at Toy R Us before leaving. :lol:

Spring~Fields
11-28-2006, 11:18 AM
Guys like Moeller and Crosby are those cheap candy items you snag up at the cash register at Toy R Us before leaving. :lol:

Oh so you find Moeller and Crosby to be sweet acquisitions?

Don't you think that Wayne has a bit of an excessive sweet tooth considering the following?

Esteban Yan
Gary Majewski
Royce Clayton
Rheal Cormier
Sun Woo Kim
Todd Hollandsworth
Quinton McCracken
Tuffy Rhodes
Joe Mays
Ryan Franklin
Juan Castro
Mike Venafro
Timo Perez
Terrence Long
Matt Kata
Moeller
Crosby

cumulative cost? cheap?

The problem with Waynes snags are that they don’t come from the checkout counter, they come from the discards in the DFA dumpster bin outback. Those sweets contribute to a lot of cavities, ie holes.

Perhaps god father Robert H. should "absolutely" impose some parental controls.