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View Full Version : Would You Do A Dunn For Jake Peavy Deal?



Krusty
11-26-2006, 10:37 AM
Just curious to see what you thought about a trade idea that would send Dunn to the Padres for RHP Jake Peavy?

Of course the Reds would have to look at free agency to fill Dunn's spot. The Reds could sign probably two of the following players to try to replace some of the lost outfield production with the departure of Dunn: OFs David Delucci, Craig Wilson, Cliff Floyd, Jose Guillen and Trot Nixon.

Opinions?

dougdirt
11-26-2006, 11:26 AM
Without a question.

cincy09
11-26-2006, 11:42 AM
yes on this deal, but I am back into the camp that says we should keep Dunn and try to build around him. I think we need that offensive superstar in the lineup. My hope is that he can avoid some of these monumental slumps, and perform the way he is capable.

CTA513
11-26-2006, 12:10 PM
Yes, but they would have to make sure Peavy is 100% healthy.

MartyFan
11-26-2006, 12:15 PM
Just curious to see what you thought about a trade idea that would send Dunn to the Padres for RHP Jake Peavy?

Of course the Reds would have to look at free agency to fill Dunn's spot. The Reds could sign probably two of the following players to try to replace some of the lost outfield production with the departure of Dunn: OFs David Delucci, Craig Wilson, Cliff Floyd, Jose Guillen and Trot Nixon.

Opinions?

If his arm and back and legs are good...yep.

MrCinatit
11-26-2006, 12:16 PM
I would, yes.
But would the Padres?

Spitball
11-26-2006, 01:17 PM
Yes, I would think this would be a good match-up of needs. The Padres have the ballpark to get by with a lesser pitcher while the Reds have the ballpark to get by with a lesser bat. For the Reds, it would be easier to find a Rich Aurilia-type player to somewhat fill Dunn's void than to fill the same need in the rotation.

steig
11-26-2006, 01:32 PM
Yes. The Astros finished ahead of the Reds in the division last year and their offense was terrible. We need pitching first and you can always add a bat later. It seems like pitching commands the highest price during the season if you are trying to get it while offensive bats are most expensive in the off season. We could try to make a move for a bat this off season but if the offense is terrible try to make a trade during the season. In my opinion a rotation headed by Peavy, Harang, and Arroyo would make the Reds contenders in the division and possibly the league. Add in Homer later in the year and the Reds have a solid team shaping up.

fearofpopvol1
11-26-2006, 04:18 PM
Yep but the Padres would never do it.

Krusty
11-26-2006, 05:34 PM
Here is the slobber-knocker:

Peavy and Linebrink to the Reds for Dunn, Freel and Coffey.

Jpup
11-26-2006, 06:20 PM
There are only a handful of guys that I would trade Adam Dunn for, Jake Peavy is one of them.

NDRed
11-26-2006, 07:38 PM
Harang, Arroyo, and Peavy would be nice at the top of the rotation

jojo
11-26-2006, 08:20 PM
Hi one and all! This is my first post..... :beerme:

I think the appropriate question would be, why would SD trade Peavy for Dunn?

Peavy, in his mid-20's, is already one of the best arms in the NL and is a bona fide TOR guy-a power pitcher with mild ground ball tendencies good for 200 innings. His xFIPS for '04 thru '06 have been 3.56, 3.13, and 3.82 respectively (so his effectiveness is not a product of playing in a pitcher's park). To top it off, the Padres control him for 3 more seasons (07:$4.75M, 08:$6M, 09:$8M club option) at rates that guarantee payroll value barring injury. Really why would the Padres want to trade him at all?

Now consider Dunn. His 06 VORP was 23 (that in and of itself should be a red flag for those speaking his name in the same sentence as Peavy). His '06 UZR rates his defense at -23 runs. His converted PMR rating is -7 runs. So if you accept the above range for his defense of -7 to -23 runs for 06, his true value was roughly 0 to 16 runs over replacement or 1.5 wins at best. Needless to say, $7.5M for a win or less is NOT a bargain. The 06 Dunn really is a lot easier to replace than many may think. Basically 06 Dunn was a marginal player who was grossly overpaid. Unfortunately hes due another big raise. If the $10.5M Dunn of 07 returns to the 05 Dunn with a VORP of 45 then hes somewhere between a 2 and 3.5 win player after considering his defense. At 2 wins, hed be horribly overpaid. At 3.5 wins hes $3M a win which is about right (wins are $2-2.5M per by convention) but still hes not a bargain. Its difficult for me to see Dunn being worth $13M in true production value in 08 even if hes the 04 offensive version (defense really does matter :bang: ). If the '06 version of Dunn returns at any point in his remaining contract, well, a bad deal just got even more painful. Needless to say there is a lot of pressure on Dunn's bat. Will he be the Dunn that sabermetrics fell in love with or the guy who hit 40 hrs with a SLG below .500 (BTW kudos to Dunn-thats a hard thing to do!). At this point I'd humbly suggest that even though he's in his *prime* years, 27 yo hitters typically don't reinvent themselves and suddenly stop striking out and begin effectively using the whole field (though a little of that could go a long way for Dunn). Certainly 27 yo's don't suddenly learn to play defense (peak for the leather is 24).

Anyway, would I trade Dunn for Peavy? Heck ya!!!!!!!! :beerme:

But why would the Padres do that deal?

Spitball
11-26-2006, 08:23 PM
And what is probably the best reason to trade Dunn for Peavey? They both wear number 44. This is obviously an even trade. Hmmm...Maybe the Reds should look into Oswalt.;)

By the way, welcome and nice post, jojo.

jojo
11-26-2006, 08:37 PM
And what is probably the best reason to trade Dunn for Peavey? They both wear number 44. This is obviously an even trade. Hmmm...Maybe the Reds should look into Oswalt.;)

By the way, welcome and nice post, jojo.


Thanks!

And since Harang's name has been brought up in this thread, isn't it time the Reds lock him up for something like: 07:$4.75M, 08:$6M, 09:$8M, 10:$9.5M club option???????

mth123
11-26-2006, 08:52 PM
Hi one and all! This is my first post..... :beerme:

I think the appropriate question would be, why would SD trade Peavy for Dunn?

Peavy, in his mid-20's, is already one of the best arms in the NL and is a bona fide TOR guy-a power pitcher with mild ground ball tendencies good for 200 innings. His xFIPS for '04 thru '06 have been 3.56, 3.13, and 3.82 respectively (so his effectiveness is not a product of playing in a pitcher's park). To top it off, the Padres control him for 3 more seasons (07:$4.75M, 08:$6M, 09:$8M club option) at rates that guarantee payroll value barring injury. Really why would the Padres want to trade him at all?

Now consider Dunn. His ’06 VORP was 23 (that in and of itself should be a red flag for those speaking his name in the same sentence as Peavy). His '06 UZR rates his defense at -23 runs. His converted PMR rating is -7 runs. So if you accept the above range for his defense of -7 to -23 runs for ‘06, his true value was roughly 0 to 16 runs over replacement or 1.5 wins at best. Needless to say, $7.5M for a win or less is NOT a bargain. The ’06 Dunn really is a lot easier to replace than many may think. Basically ‘06 Dunn was a marginal player who was grossly overpaid. Unfortunately he’s due another big raise. If the $10.5M Dunn of ’07 returns to the ’05 Dunn with a VORP of 45 then he’s somewhere between a 2 and 3.5 win player after considering his defense. At 2 wins, he’d be horribly overpaid. At 3.5 wins he’s $3M a win which is about right (wins are $2-2.5M per by convention) but still he’s not a bargain. It’s difficult for me to see Dunn being worth $13M in true production value in ’08 even if he’s the ’04 offensive version (defense really does matter :bang: ). If the '06 version of Dunn returns at any point in his remaining contract, well, a bad deal just got even more painful. Needless to say there is a lot of pressure on Dunn's bat. Will he be the Dunn that sabermetrics fell in love with or the guy who hit 40 hrs with a SLG below .500 (BTW kudos to Dunn-that’s a hard thing to do!). At this point I'd humbly suggest that even though he's in his *prime* years, 27 yo hitters typically don't reinvent themselves and suddenly stop striking out and begin effectively using the whole field (though a little of that could go a long way for Dunn). Certainly 27 yo's don't suddenly learn to play defense (peak for the leather is 24).

Anyway, would I trade Dunn for Peavy? Heck ya!!!!!!!! :beerme:

But why would the Padres do that deal?

Heck of a first post.

I think the logic would be that Petco and GABP factor in. Dunn would be one of the few players around who has the type of power to still put up big HR numbers in Petco and Peavey would probably still be dominant at GABP. Meanwhile, SD's park can make lots of decent pitchers into well above average guys that could backfill Peavey and GABP allows lesser hitters to show power to be able to backfill for Dunn so both teams could more easily replace the guy they are trading than they would be able to develop a guy like the one they would acquire.

Not convinced I agree, but that's the logic.

I am a believer that Dunn is going to rebound to his 2005 levels, but Peavey is one of a handful of guys I would trade him for.

Keep posting.

dougdirt
11-26-2006, 09:22 PM
Nice post jojo. I agree with pretty much everything you just said.

Wheelhouse
11-26-2006, 09:40 PM
Hi one and all! This is my first post..... :beerme:

I think the appropriate question would be, why would SD trade Peavy for Dunn?

Peavy, in his mid-20's, is already one of the best arms in the NL and is a bona fide TOR guy-a power pitcher with mild ground ball tendencies good for 200 innings. His xFIPS for '04 thru '06 have been 3.56, 3.13, and 3.82 respectively (so his effectiveness is not a product of playing in a pitcher's park). To top it off, the Padres control him for 3 more seasons (07:$4.75M, 08:$6M, 09:$8M club option) at rates that guarantee payroll value barring injury. Really why would the Padres want to trade him at all?

Now consider Dunn. His 06 VORP was 23 (that in and of itself should be a red flag for those speaking his name in the same sentence as Peavy). His '06 UZR rates his defense at -23 runs. His converted PMR rating is -7 runs. So if you accept the above range for his defense of -7 to -23 runs for 06, his true value was roughly 0 to 16 runs over replacement or 1.5 wins at best. Needless to say, $7.5M for a win or less is NOT a bargain. The 06 Dunn really is a lot easier to replace than many may think. Basically 06 Dunn was a marginal player who was grossly overpaid. Unfortunately hes due another big raise. If the $10.5M Dunn of 07 returns to the 05 Dunn with a VORP of 45 then hes somewhere between a 2 and 3.5 win player after considering his defense. At 2 wins, hed be horribly overpaid. At 3.5 wins hes $3M a win which is about right (wins are $2-2.5M per by convention) but still hes not a bargain. Its difficult for me to see Dunn being worth $13M in true production value in 08 even if hes the 04 offensive version (defense really does matter :bang: ). If the '06 version of Dunn returns at any point in his remaining contract, well, a bad deal just got even more painful. Needless to say there is a lot of pressure on Dunn's bat. Will he be the Dunn that sabermetrics fell in love with or the guy who hit 40 hrs with a SLG below .500 (BTW kudos to Dunn-thats a hard thing to do!). At this point I'd humbly suggest that even though he's in his *prime* years, 27 yo hitters typically don't reinvent themselves and suddenly stop striking out and begin effectively using the whole field (though a little of that could go a long way for Dunn). Certainly 27 yo's don't suddenly learn to play defense (peak for the leather is 24).

Anyway, would I trade Dunn for Peavy? Heck ya!!!!!!!! :beerme:

But why would the Padres do that deal?

Well done.

Far East
11-26-2006, 10:53 PM
...The Reds could sign probably two of the following players to try to replace some of the lost outfield production with the departure of Dunn: OFs David Delucci, Craig Wilson, Cliff Floyd, Jose Guillen and Trot Nixon...

I agree.

The Reds in the past have acquired some good corner/4th outfielders, such as Guillen, Encarnacion, Ochoa, Bichette, Tucker, and Hammonds, but not lately.

Did Bowden acquire all of those guys? Were Dan O and Wayne preoccupied with adding arms to the staff?

Some of the currently available OFers fared better in BA, OBP, and SLG in 2006 than the Reds' team averages, and some did worse:

Delucci .292 .369 .530
Wilson .251 .314 .446
Floyd .244 .324 .407
Guillen .216 .276 .398
Nixon .268 .373 .394

... compared to the Reds' team averages of:
.257 .336 .432

RFS62
11-26-2006, 11:11 PM
very nice start, jojo

ochre
11-28-2006, 01:07 AM
Kind of interesting that you framed Peavy's performance/value around a three year sample, while focusing on just one (strongly impacted by just 2 really down months) of Dunn's.

jojo
11-28-2006, 01:18 AM
Kind of interesting that you framed Peavy's performance/value around a three year sample, while focusing on just one (strongly impacted by just 2 really down months) of Dunn's.


Your comment is well taken but my point was two fold:

1. Why the heck would the Padres trade Peavy???

2. Dunn's trade value is at an all time low-he's a $10M man coming off of a season where he was a marginal player at best-slump be darned.

Dunn's '06 really increases the risk involved when deciding to trade a guy that is reliably expected to remain one of the best for the duration of his contract for a guy whose production has trended down since his breakout year in '04.

Anyway for what its worth, my humble view....

ochre
11-28-2006, 02:06 AM
Well, the Padres might trade Peavy if there are structural concerns with his pitching arm, as I believe was rumored throughout last season. His performance regressed last year too... :)

Aside from the last few weeks of the season, Dunn was anything but marginal offensively. Perhaps your auguries can tell us whether Dunn's '06 vs. righties numbers were an aberration, or is that the "new Dunn"? He gets roughly twice as many ABs vs. righties, so if you expect that his one year trend from last year will outweigh the 3-4 year history of strong performance against righties, cool. Otherwise, I'd just sit back and wait for the numbers to correct to career norms. I believe his BABIP generally indicated (along with the fact that his LD% was up last year w/o corresponding increase in actual BA) that he was fairly unlucky on balls put in play last year.

jojo
11-28-2006, 10:37 AM
Well, the Padres might trade Peavy if there are structural concerns with his pitching arm, as I believe was rumored throughout last season. His performance regressed last year too... :)

Aside from the last few weeks of the season, Dunn was anything but marginal offensively. Perhaps your auguries can tell us whether Dunn's '06 vs. righties numbers were an aberration, or is that the "new Dunn"? He gets roughly twice as many ABs vs. righties, so if you expect that his one year trend from last year will outweigh the 3-4 year history of strong performance against righties, cool. Otherwise, I'd just sit back and wait for the numbers to correct to career norms. I believe his BABIP generally indicated (along with the fact that his LD% was up last year w/o corresponding increase in actual BA) that he was fairly unlucky on balls put in play last year.

Dunn's last 200 AB were atrocious....thats a bit more serious than "a few weeks". His May and June weren't all that stupendous either.

I could suggest that for except a few weeks in July, Dunn's season was.... well....I wont go there... :)

I don't have a clue what '07 brings for Dunn other than he'll be lousy defensively and he had better be solid at OBP and SLG or he will be a marginal player.

westofyou
11-28-2006, 10:53 AM
Dunn's last 200 AB were atrocious....thats a bit more serious than "a few weeks". His May and June weren't all that stupendous either.

I could suggest that for except a few weeks in July, Dunn's season was.... well....I wont go there... :)

I don't have a clue what '07 brings for Dunn other than he'll be lousy defensively and he had better be solid at OBP and SLG or he will be a marginal player.

.904 June OPS is fine with me.

BTW

The Reds have tons of problems to wrap your mind around.

Did you bring any other songs to the party jojo?

Or do we just know one tune.

mound_patrol
11-28-2006, 11:06 AM
Dunn's last 200 AB were atrocious....thats a bit more serious than "a few weeks". His May and June weren't all that stupendous either.

I could suggest that for except a few weeks in July, Dunn's season was.... well....I wont go there... :)

I don't have a clue what '07 brings for Dunn other than he'll be lousy defensively and he had better be solid at OBP and SLG or he will be a marginal player.

So we are going to use 200 at bats to sum up Adam Dunn. That makes a whole lot of sense. Lets leave out the fact that Narron bounced Dunn around in the lineup like a yo-yo and that Dunn had zero protection behind him the latter half of the season. And dont say Aurillia protected him, because I highly doubt many pitchers feared seeing Aurillia in the on deck circle.
I'm definitly not one to jump off the Dunn bandwagon because of 200 atbats out of his entire career. Dunn has plenty of flaws but he's also the only big threat as of now in the Reds lineup. If we are going to trade him right now we need a healthy Peavy in return and be willing to accept the fact that we will be aweful offensively.

ochre
11-28-2006, 11:08 AM
Dunn's last 200 AB were atrocious....thats a bit more serious than "a few weeks". His May and June weren't all that stupendous either.

I could suggest that for except a few weeks in July, Dunn's season was.... well....I wont go there... :)

I don't have a clue what '07 brings for Dunn other than he'll be lousy defensively and he had better be solid at OBP and SLG or he will be a marginal player.
Again, though. He was BABIP unlucky last season, and much like his down year against LHP in '05, his longer term statistics indicate he will revert to norms against RHP. What, again, is it that you see that makes you think he won't revert to career norms?

You 'suggesting' it doesn't make it true.

jojo
11-28-2006, 12:00 PM
So we are going to use 200 at bats to sum up Adam Dunn. That makes a whole lot of sense. Lets leave out the fact that Narron bounced Dunn around in the lineup like a yo-yo and that Dunn had zero protection behind him the latter half of the season. And dont say Aurillia protected him, because I highly doubt many pitchers feared seeing Aurillia in the on deck circle.
I'm definitly not one to jump off the Dunn bandwagon because of 200 atbats out of his entire career. Dunn has plenty of flaws but he's also the only big threat as of now in the Reds lineup. If we are going to trade him right now we need a healthy Peavy in return and be willing to accept the fact that we will be aweful offensively.

That would be a very unfair characterization of my position.

jojo
11-28-2006, 12:08 PM
What, again, is it that you see that makes you think he won't revert to career norms?

You 'suggesting' it doesn't make it true.

That also is a unfair characterization of my position. Your reply is a stretch from:

"I don't have a clue what '07 brings for Dunn other than he'll be lousy defensively and he had better be solid at OBP and SLG or he will be a marginal player."

His value is almost entirely derived from his OBP and his SLG. His SLG has went down each year since '04. Why shouldn't someone wonder if he'll *revert* back to old form? Especially, why wouldn't someone like the Padres wonder?

jojo
11-28-2006, 12:22 PM
.904 June OPS is fine with me.

BTW

The Reds have tons of problems to wrap your mind around.

Did you bring any other songs to the party jojo?

Or do we just know one tune.


This is a thread about Dunn and his potential trade value???????????

BTW:

Since we're talking about music now, i'll beat my own drum.

In the guise of talking about Dunn i've discussed:

replacement level theory,
win shares,
defensive metrics,
pitcher evaluation,
payroll flexibility and sound roster formulation,
evaluation of a player's true value,
wins in general.....
and all kinds of other stuff

I've got opinions-but there are reasons for them.

I guess that makes me a one song piano player? :beerme:

ochre
11-28-2006, 12:49 PM
That also is a unfair characterization of my position. Your reply is a stretch from:

"I don't have a clue what '07 brings for Dunn other than he'll be lousy defensively and he had better be solid at OBP and SLG or he will be a marginal player."

His value is almost entirely derived from his OBP and his SLG. His SLG has went down each year since '04. Why shouldn't someone wonder if he'll *revert* back to old form? Especially, why wouldn't someone like the Padres wonder?
And BABIP (luck/unluck) doesn't affect SLG?

My reply isn't really a stretch when the factors you are critiquing have reasonable explanations in other metrics. In fact, your avoidance of these other measures is why people have accused you of cherry-picking your statistics. Picking one year samples when contrasting to other players over multi-year samples. Switching currency between fielding and offense without negotiating the exchange rate. Knowledge and understanding of sabrmetrics doesn't preclude one from manipulating those measures to fit an agenda. Discarding measures, that you personally, as an anonymous poster on a message board, find inadequate (generally, or just for the sake of the debate in question?) is another warning sign that one is pursuing an agenda.

Now, I know I'm mixing threads to some degree, but the topic of both threads, largely, is Dunn's relative value.

My perspective, in regards to the relative opportunities of success (90+ wins) this year for the Reds, is that the Reds need to add net runs scored and still find a way to reduce Runs Allowed over what was on the field at the end of last season. Neither proposal, covered by the threads in question, would accomplish this, or even seem to make these results reasonably attainable. In the end, more and more, I'm finding myself in the "burn it down and start over" camp. With Dunn's perceived trade value at it's lowest in his career, now is not the time to move him, even with the window of opportunity for (team) success pushed out beyond his current contract length.

My opinion is that his numbers correct this year. That's based on his historical tendency to go through fairly extended funks and then recover. I've given a couple of examples of that based on his vs. LHP and vs. RHP splits, his month to month splits vis. longer, multi-season samples, and his swings in BABIP. If they do correct, his trade value rises and the team scores more aggregate runs. If they don't, it won't make much difference in regards to return in a trade, whether that trade is consummated now, or later.

westofyou
11-28-2006, 01:00 PM
His value is almost entirely derived from his OBP and his SLG.

As is every players offensive value.

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 01:10 PM
oops

smallbattle
11-28-2006, 01:11 PM
I'd still find it hard to trade an everyday player for a pitcher.

westofyou
11-28-2006, 01:16 PM
oops
So was Soriano and he swung back... amongst numerous others throughout history.

BTW Adam Dunn's OPS in 2006 (as crappy as it was) was the 30th best on the Reds over the past 30 years. Pretty good for someone trending bad, it speaks volumes about the expectation attached to him by folks who disregard the ocean of sub par performances that surge throughout the organization.

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 01:30 PM
WOY, trying to compare an OPS now to an OPS prior to 15 years ago is pretty much a mute point. We are in an extreme hitters era. Adam Dunn had a decently good offensive season last year. However it wasnt what one would expect out of a guy who hits 40 home runs annually. Between 1996-2005 there were 119 40 or more HR seasons. The lowest SLG % was .506. The next lowest was .518. Dunn had a .490 SLG % last season.

jojo
11-28-2006, 01:40 PM
As is every players offensive value.

Clearly I was suggesting his defense is a liability.....

westofyou
11-28-2006, 01:45 PM
WOY, trying to compare an OPS now to an OPS prior to 15 years ago is pretty much a mute point. We are in an extreme hitters era. Adam Dunn had a decently good offensive season last year. However it wasnt what one would expect out of a guy who hits 40 home runs annually. Between 1996-2005 there were 119 40 or more HR seasons. The lowest SLG % was .506. The next lowest was .518. Dunn had a .490 SLG % last season.

We are?

No kidding... BTW then vs the league average his last year was #53 in the last 30 seasons, 2004 and 2005 were 13th and 16th respectably, not bad for a guy not yet 27... but keep kicking him because of 2006.

paintmered
11-28-2006, 01:46 PM
Clearly I was suggesting his defense is a liability.....

The guy is a left fielder. If there is one place to hide a defensive liability, it's there. His offensive capability more than makes up for any perceived defensive weakness.

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 01:49 PM
Im not kicking him becuase of 2006. Im not kicking at all. I am simply giving an opinion. I am disappointed in the fact that the guy has gone from where he was in 2004 to where he is now after 2006. He has gone downhill each year since 2004, when most players get better. Now to the topic of would I trade someone who is on the seeming decline, who cant play defense at all, for Jake Peavy, of course I would. I would trade Adam Dunn for quite a bit less too.

westofyou
11-28-2006, 02:06 PM
Im not kicking him becuase of 2006. Im not kicking at all. I am simply giving an opinion. I am disappointed in the fact that the guy has gone from where he was in 2004 to where he is now after 2006. He has gone downhill each year since 2004, when most players get better. Now to the topic of would I trade someone who is on the seeming decline, who cant play defense at all, for Jake Peavy, of course I would. I would trade Adam Dunn for quite a bit less too.

What's particularly rich is the bundling of 2005 with 2006.

Everyone and their mother knows Dunn had a bad 2006 season, his OPS vs the league was .070 better, however in 2005 it was 161 better... a whole .017 points worse then 2004.

If a 17 point drop in a season is equal to the .99 point drop this season, then I'm looking at players careers all wrong.

Plus if a player trending downwards for a brief time in his twenties is a sign of decline then AL Kaline should have gone home at age 22 and 29.

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 02:14 PM
WOY, I am not concerned about Adam Dunn vs the league. Adam Dunn doesnt play CF, SS, C, P or 2B....all weak hitting positions. Heck, I am not even worried about Adam Dunn vs other left fielders.
Is Adam Dunn a good hitter? Yes.
Is he great? No.
Is Adam Dunn a good fielder? No.
Is he one of the worst? Yes.
For those reasons, would I trade him for Jake Peavy? Yes.

westofyou
11-28-2006, 02:17 PM
WOY, I am not concerned about Adam Dunn vs the league.

Of course you're not, that's what breaks most arguments about Dunn down, is that he's compared against some mythical being that he isn't.

Instead of what he is... a LF on a MLB team.

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 02:22 PM
WOY, Im not sure anyone has ever tried to compare Adam Dunn to a mythical creature, but I guess I can try.
Who plays LF better, Adam Dunn or Zues?
Well Adam Dunn does. Zues is mythical.

pedro
11-28-2006, 02:29 PM
WOY, Im not sure anyone has ever tried to compare Adam Dunn to a mythical creature, but I guess I can try.
Who plays LF better, Adam Dunn or Zues?
Well Adam Dunn does. Zues is mythical.

Your spelling of Zeus is right up there with your analysis of Adam Dunn.

ochre
11-28-2006, 02:35 PM
hey. If this thread continues to turn into a religious debate, I'll have to lock it!


:)

(by the way, Odin > Zeus)

BRM
11-28-2006, 02:38 PM
Worrying about LF defense when the team has the worst centerfielder in the major leagues? I'd rather Wayne fixed the big problems first.

jojo
11-28-2006, 02:53 PM
What's particularly rich is the bundling of 2005 with 2006.

Everyone and their mother knows Dunn had a bad 2006 season, his OPS vs the league was .070 better, however in 2005 it was 161 better... a whole .017 points worse then 2004.

If a 17 point drop in a season is equal to the .99 point drop this season, then I'm looking at players careers all wrong.

Plus if a player trending downwards for a brief time in his twenties is a sign of decline then AL Kaline should have gone home at age 22 and 29.

A league average leftfielder in '06 was 0.277/0.359/0.478 for an OPS of .837 and 92 RC. Dunn was .855 with 98RC. (i.e. .018 difference in OPS)

A league average leftfielder in '05 was .272/.348/.457 for an OPS of .805 and 88 RC. Dunn was .927 with 109 RC. (i.e. difference in OPS of .122)

Now factor in his defense and his total value is probably below a league average left fielder in '06 and about a win above a league average left fielder in '05. That is IMPOSSIBLE to replace... :mooner:

BTW, at least there is now one guy who has lost his right to accuse me of comparing apples and oranges-i.e. Dunn to pitchers, catchers, shortstops etc...wow! (of couse I'm the one with an agenda).... :cool:

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 03:01 PM
Your spelling of Zeus is right up there with your analysis of Adam Dunn.

Step down off your high horse.

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 03:02 PM
Worrying about LF defense when the team has the worst centerfielder in the major leagues? I'd rather Wayne fixed the big problems first.

Problem is, Griffey probably isnt tradable. Adam Dunn is.

pedro
11-28-2006, 03:05 PM
Step down off your high horse.

It's a pony.

BRM
11-28-2006, 03:05 PM
Problem is, Griffey probably isnt tradable. Adam Dunn is.

I don't have a problem trading Adam for the right return. Although I'm not sure what the right return is.

cacollinsmba
11-28-2006, 03:13 PM
Just curious to see what you thought about a trade idea that would send Dunn to the Padres for RHP Jake Peavy?

Of course the Reds would have to look at free agency to fill Dunn's spot. The Reds could sign probably two of the following players to try to replace some of the lost outfield production with the departure of Dunn: OFs David Delucci, Craig Wilson, Cliff Floyd, Jose Guillen and Trot Nixon.

Opinions?

I think I am one of the few Reds fans that would actually like to see a return of Guillen examined. Considering the year he had in 2006, I don't think he would cost much. Besides, with Krivsky's apparent attention to defense, Guillen's arm may appeal to Krivsky.

However, it seems that Krivsky has attempted to steer clear of headcases. As such, I don't hold out much hope on Guillen being signed. Besides, is Griffey going to be in RF anyway?

westofyou
11-28-2006, 03:15 PM
Guillen's arm may appeal to Krivsky.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5340


Jose Guillen has more than just a swollen elbow. The Nationals outfielder has a near-complete tear of his elbow, putting him on Jim Andrews' operating table once the swelling goes down. It's a bad break, but the return rate for position players is very good. OFs can look to Luis Gonzalez as a great example of how quickly a position player can come back from the surgery that knocks a pitcher out for most of a year. Guillen could be back for Opening Day of next year.

jojo
11-28-2006, 09:05 PM
I believe his BABIP generally indicated (along with the fact that his LD% was up last year w/o corresponding increase in actual BA) that he was fairly unlucky on balls put in play last year.


I'm sorry that I didn't get back to this comment because you raise a fair point and the whole issue of BABIP is a very interesting one in general. As Matthews Jr and his new $50M contract attest, BABIP is not a trivial issue. :cool:

BABIP can be more than (luck/unluck).... defense can play a role too.....

Youre absolutely right that Dunn's LD% was up while his BIBAP essentially was the same as '05 (which would suggest bad luck). But there was another difference between '05 and '06 as well. A great majority of the time, defenses employed an overshift against Dunn last season. Being a pull hitter, the shift could explain a large portion of what you're attributing to Dunn's *bad luck.*

For what its worth, Griffey faced the same strategy and his BABIP was down .060 in '06 versus '05. Ouch by the way....

BEETTLEBUG
11-28-2006, 09:32 PM
I wouldn't mind Guillen back either

Newman4
11-28-2006, 11:27 PM
Just out of curiosity, why do some of you think Dunn will revert back to his career norms? I'm kinda with Jojo on this one, why the heck would the Padres want Dunn for Peavy?

marcshoe
11-28-2006, 11:28 PM
Just out of curiosity, why do some of you think Dunn will revert back to his career norms? I'm kinda with Jojo on this one, why the heck would the Padres want Dunn for Peavy?

Because of the definition of "career norm", maybe? :confused:

Newman4
11-28-2006, 11:35 PM
Because of the definition of "career norm", maybe? :confused:

Enlighten me tixe....:)

jojo
11-28-2006, 11:41 PM
Enlighten me tixe....:)


Ironically enough with Dunn the argument isnt that he'll play to the back of his baseball card but rather he will be entering his *prime* years (i.e. you ain't seen nothin' yet buhbuhbuh baby....:rockband: )....

Newman4
11-28-2006, 11:48 PM
Here's a statistic that troubles me and it doesn't have anything to do with VORP, BABIP, etc. Dunn's weight is now listed at 275. Is it just me or has he gained like 25-30 pounds?

jojo
11-28-2006, 11:50 PM
Here's a statistic that troubles me and it doesn't have anything to do with VORP, BABIP, etc. Dunn's weight is now listed at 275. Is it just me or has he gained like 25-30 pounds?

But its the good kind.... *organic* :mooner:

Newman4
11-28-2006, 11:53 PM
Ironically enough with Dunn the argument isnt that he'll play to the back of his baseball card but rather he will be entering his *prime* years (i.e. you ain't seen nothin' yet buhbuhbuh baby....:rockband: )....


Not to quote the "small sample" size again, but is it possible that the dreadful slump is indicative of what is to come? Maybe his value is at an all time low relative to his career so far, but hasn't hit rock bottom just yet.

jojo
11-29-2006, 06:10 AM
Not to quote the "small sample" size again, but is it possible that the dreadful slump is indicative of what is to come? Maybe his value is at an all time low relative to his career so far, but hasn't hit rock bottom just yet.


Just checking.....your last post in this thread was about 7 hrs ago.....have you been struck by lightning yet???? :cool:

I dunno. That's the million dollar question. It would be interesting to see what Pecota does with him after reconsidering his '06. I think it is reasonable to expect him to be somewhere closer to '05 than to '06 next season. But now that he is a $10M guy, there's alot more risk in keeping him around-especially since he is a defensive liability meaning his true value to the team hinges entirely upon OBP and SLG (which has trended down since '04). IMHO, he basically needs to be roughly a 5 win guy offensively for the Reds to be getting bang for their buck. He's only done that once in career....

Reasonable people can disagree on this issue I guess-as this thread bares, his true value really depends upon how you weight his defense.

marcshoe
11-29-2006, 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman4
Just out of curiosity, why do some of you think Dunn will revert back to his career norms? I'm kinda with Jojo on this one, why the heck would the Padres want Dunn for Peavy?

Because of the definition of "career norm", maybe?


Enlighten me tixe....:)


norm - A standard, model, or pattern regarded as typical: the current middle-class norm of two children per family. (American Heritage Dictionary)

By definition, a norm is what is to be expected. I'm not making an argument from statistical analysis; I'm just pointing out that the answer to your question is contained in the question itself. In other words--because that's what "norm" means.

ochre
11-29-2006, 10:17 AM
Reasonable people can disagree on this issue I guess-as this thread bares, his true value really depends upon how you weight his defense.
I think his true value is about as defense independent as possible. To me the question of his true value revolves entirely around whether the last couple of months of last season were ominous, or aberrant.

jojo
11-29-2006, 11:15 AM
I think his true value is about as defense independent as possible. To me the question of his true value revolves entirely around whether the last couple of months of last season were ominous, or aberrant.


Its difficult to imagine Dunn could be consistently as bad as his last 220 PA of '06 (.176/.299/.335). That being said, can he be good enough to be worth his salary? His extrabase hits have declined each year since '04. His AB/HR have increased each year over the same period. He's a defensive liability and so without his SLG, Dunn is basically a marginal player. I think you'll see a better Dunn next season. Like you suggest though, just how much better is the million dollar question. The Reds need him to be a 4-5 win bat.

Newman4
11-29-2006, 06:16 PM
norm - A standard, model, or pattern regarded as typical: the current middle-class norm of two children per family. (American Heritage Dictionary)

By definition, a norm is what is to be expected. I'm not making an argument from statistical analysis; I'm just pointing out that the answer to your question is contained in the question itself. In other words--because that's what "norm" means.

I understand the definition, haha. If his last two months are a preview of what is to come, then I guess his pre-2007 "norms" were not reverted to. :)