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sixfigure
11-26-2006, 11:43 PM
Inflated market could benefit Pirates
Team feels wildness of free agency will enhance value of trade pieces
Sunday, November 26, 2006

By Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


Nam Y. Huh, Associated Press
Forty-plus home runs make Adam Dunn attractive, but his $10.5 million salary dulls the shine.
Click photo for larger image.

Related article


Hot Stove: Morgan speeds from rink to 40-man roster









As Major League Baseball's outrageous offseason of spending hits fresh peaks almost daily, the Pirates -- silent as can be -- appear to be no more than an afterthought.

And it just might stay that way.

Or not.

Ask general manager Dave Littlefield, and he still recites a wish list for a left-handed power hitter to play first base or right field, a right-handed starting pitcher, a right-handed reliever, a long reliever and a backup middle infielder.

He does allow that the power hitter, the most valuable of those commodities, probably will have to come through trade. But he firmly rejects the notion that the Pirates cannot be players in this manic environment for player acquisition.

To the contrary, Littlefield points out -- and it is a difficult view to dispute -- that the players he can trade are made more valuable with each signing that sends the free-agent market deeper into orbit.

"Sure, it's going to help us," Littlefield said. "You've got to go someplace to get players. If the free-agent market gets expensive, you would think, in general, that the trade market would increase, as well, as far as value."

Asked if he might be put off by the free-agent market, he replied, "No. It's just something you have to be aware of, to put your strategies together to acquire what you need relative to your resources."

So, what is going on with the Pirates' offseason?

For the most part, it seems, not a whole lot yet.

One agent who represents a player in the Pirates' power-hitting mold was asked if he had heard from the team and answered, "Pittsburgh? Not this year."

Another agent who spoke to three general managers in the past week said the Pirates are not coming up in trade talks, either.

That could change, though, particularly in regard to the power hitter, as the Pirates are believed to be narrowing their focus to a handful of possible trade targets.

One slugger they have discussed internally is the Cincinnati Reds' Adam Dunn, who owns one of the game's most potent bats when he makes contact. Despite a .234 average and 194 strikeouts, Dunn, 26, had 40 home runs -- his third season in a row of 40-plus -- along with 92 RBIs.

But it appears unlikely that the Pirates will go this route, partly because Dunn would make $10.5 million next season, partly because they sound reluctant to add strikeouts to a team that ranked fourth in the National League in that category last season.

Littlefield was asked how heavily strikeouts will be weighed in his choice and replied: "I'd say we have a fair amount of strikeouts in our lineup, and I'd like to have someone with less strikeouts who gets on base, ideally. But you have to deal with what's available."

Another player the Pirates are considering is the Colorado Rockies' Brad Hawpe, 26, who can play right field or first base. He is coming off his first full season, one in which he batted .293 with 22 home runs and 84 RBIs. He also showed a good eye in drawing 73 walks, helping boost his on-base percentage to .383.

Whatever the case, the power hitter is "more likely" to come through trade, Littlefield said, largely because there are so few in free agency who fit the bill. Aubrey Huff, late of the Houston Astros, might be the only one, and the Pirates are not pursuing him.

The starter could come through free agency, Littlefield said, though the field of affordable talent there is slim, too. Ordinary pitchers such as Gil Meche and Vicente Padilla should command annual salaries of more than $8 million. And those in the price tier below them might not be not much better than what the Pirates could have by retaining Shawn Chacon.

One familiar name in the latter tier is Kip Wells, but he will not return to Pittsburgh, agent Randy Hendricks said.

The utility infielder is likely to come from the outside, Littlefield said. But he said the right-handed reliever and long man could emerge from a pack that includes Josh Sharpless, Jonah Bayliss, Marty McLeary, Shane Youman and Chacon.

What do the Pirates have to give?

For one, they have more money than initially thought.

When owner Kevin McClatchy revealed in September that payroll would remain "flat," it was generally accepted that it would stay at about $46 million, the final spending figure for 2006. But Littlefield said this week it will be closer to $50 million, referring to it as "fifty-ish" and an increase over last year.

The breakdown so far: The team has $11.8 million committed to three signed players. An additional $6 million will be committed if the team keeps Chacon through arbitration and exercises a $3 million option on reliever Damaso Marte, each of which appears more likely to happen than not. Five other arbitration-eligible players should earn about $15 million combined. The rest will make close to the minimum $380,000.

That scenario projects payroll to roughly $36 million and leaves about $14 million to spend.

The other asset the Pirates have -- plenty of pitching -- could be more valuable than cash in this market. Any of their four young starters -- Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm -- would fetch a fine return in a trade. And the same would be true of late-inning relievers Mike Gonzalez and Salomon Torres, especially given the wild spending on bullpen help this offseason.

It does not sound as if it will be easy to pry a starter from Littlefield, though.

"It's likely that we won't talk trade for any of those four starters," he said. "I just think it's too valuable a commodity, and I have a lot of faith in these guys becoming even better and helping us go where we want to go. You never say never, but I'd say trading any of them is unrealistic."



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Falls City Beer
11-26-2006, 11:44 PM
Inflated market could benefit Pirates
Team feels wildness of free agency will enhance value of trade pieces
Sunday, November 26, 2006

By Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


Nam Y. Huh, Associated Press
Forty-plus home runs make Adam Dunn attractive, but his $10.5 million salary dulls the shine.
Click photo for larger image.

Related article


Hot Stove: Morgan speeds from rink to 40-man roster









As Major League Baseball's outrageous offseason of spending hits fresh peaks almost daily, the Pirates -- silent as can be -- appear to be no more than an afterthought.

And it just might stay that way.

Or not.

Ask general manager Dave Littlefield, and he still recites a wish list for a left-handed power hitter to play first base or right field, a right-handed starting pitcher, a right-handed reliever, a long reliever and a backup middle infielder.

He does allow that the power hitter, the most valuable of those commodities, probably will have to come through trade. But he firmly rejects the notion that the Pirates cannot be players in this manic environment for player acquisition.

To the contrary, Littlefield points out -- and it is a difficult view to dispute -- that the players he can trade are made more valuable with each signing that sends the free-agent market deeper into orbit.

"Sure, it's going to help us," Littlefield said. "You've got to go someplace to get players. If the free-agent market gets expensive, you would think, in general, that the trade market would increase, as well, as far as value."

Asked if he might be put off by the free-agent market, he replied, "No. It's just something you have to be aware of, to put your strategies together to acquire what you need relative to your resources."

So, what is going on with the Pirates' offseason?

For the most part, it seems, not a whole lot yet.

One agent who represents a player in the Pirates' power-hitting mold was asked if he had heard from the team and answered, "Pittsburgh? Not this year."

Another agent who spoke to three general managers in the past week said the Pirates are not coming up in trade talks, either.

That could change, though, particularly in regard to the power hitter, as the Pirates are believed to be narrowing their focus to a handful of possible trade targets.

One slugger they have discussed internally is the Cincinnati Reds' Adam Dunn, who owns one of the game's most potent bats when he makes contact. Despite a .234 average and 194 strikeouts, Dunn, 26, had 40 home runs -- his third season in a row of 40-plus -- along with 92 RBIs.

But it appears unlikely that the Pirates will go this route, partly because Dunn would make $10.5 million next season, partly because they sound reluctant to add strikeouts to a team that ranked fourth in the National League in that category last season.

Littlefield was asked how heavily strikeouts will be weighed in his choice and replied: "I'd say we have a fair amount of strikeouts in our lineup, and I'd like to have someone with less strikeouts who gets on base, ideally. But you have to deal with what's available."

Another player the Pirates are considering is the Colorado Rockies' Brad Hawpe, 26, who can play right field or first base. He is coming off his first full season, one in which he batted .293 with 22 home runs and 84 RBIs. He also showed a good eye in drawing 73 walks, helping boost his on-base percentage to .383.

Whatever the case, the power hitter is "more likely" to come through trade, Littlefield said, largely because there are so few in free agency who fit the bill. Aubrey Huff, late of the Houston Astros, might be the only one, and the Pirates are not pursuing him.

The starter could come through free agency, Littlefield said, though the field of affordable talent there is slim, too. Ordinary pitchers such as Gil Meche and Vicente Padilla should command annual salaries of more than $8 million. And those in the price tier below them might not be not much better than what the Pirates could have by retaining Shawn Chacon.

One familiar name in the latter tier is Kip Wells, but he will not return to Pittsburgh, agent Randy Hendricks said.

The utility infielder is likely to come from the outside, Littlefield said. But he said the right-handed reliever and long man could emerge from a pack that includes Josh Sharpless, Jonah Bayliss, Marty McLeary, Shane Youman and Chacon.

What do the Pirates have to give?

For one, they have more money than initially thought.

When owner Kevin McClatchy revealed in September that payroll would remain "flat," it was generally accepted that it would stay at about $46 million, the final spending figure for 2006. But Littlefield said this week it will be closer to $50 million, referring to it as "fifty-ish" and an increase over last year.

The breakdown so far: The team has $11.8 million committed to three signed players. An additional $6 million will be committed if the team keeps Chacon through arbitration and exercises a $3 million option on reliever Damaso Marte, each of which appears more likely to happen than not. Five other arbitration-eligible players should earn about $15 million combined. The rest will make close to the minimum $380,000.

That scenario projects payroll to roughly $36 million and leaves about $14 million to spend.

The other asset the Pirates have -- plenty of pitching -- could be more valuable than cash in this market. Any of their four young starters -- Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm -- would fetch a fine return in a trade. And the same would be true of late-inning relievers Mike Gonzalez and Salomon Torres, especially given the wild spending on bullpen help this offseason.

It does not sound as if it will be easy to pry a starter from Littlefield, though.

"It's likely that we won't talk trade for any of those four starters," he said. "I just think it's too valuable a commodity, and I have a lot of faith in these guys becoming even better and helping us go where we want to go. You never say never, but I'd say trading any of them is unrealistic."



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Strikeouts?

And people wonder why the Pirates suck ass.

Seriously, just contract that pathetic franchise.

Far East
11-27-2006, 12:04 AM
The 29, soon to be 30, year old Aubrey Huff just might add some offense for the Reds if they decided to trade Dunn for pitching.

In '06 he had a .267 BA, .344 OBP, and .469 SLG.

Falls City Beer
11-27-2006, 12:05 AM
The 29, soon to be 30, year old Aubrey Huff just might add some offense for the Reds if they decided to trade Dunn for pitching.

In '06 he had a .267 BA, .344 OBP, and .469 SLG.

If they do trade Dunn, I certainly hope it's NOT to the Pirates. They have nothing I want.

Wheelhouse
11-27-2006, 12:33 AM
Sounds like the Pirates DON'T want Dunn--they discussed it internally, and seem to be saying he doesn't fit into their idea of what they want.

Scrap Irony
11-27-2006, 12:40 AM
This is the third time I've seen something about the Phillies looking for a middle of the order bopper. If no impact bats can be found, I'd look there for a possible trading partner. How about Dunn and Ross for Cole Hamels, JA Happ, and Pat Burrell? Solid #3 starter (and a lefty) that's cheap, a prospect with good upside, and a bopper in return. With the roughly $6.5 million savings, Cincinnati could always grab Wilson or Delucci and put Pat the Bat at 1B, strengthening the bench (and allowing Burrell days off against tough RH pitchers). Work for anyone else?

Jpup
11-27-2006, 12:41 AM
I'm not sure that there is a team in MLB, except for maybe the Marlins or Rays, that would not take Dunn at his current contract. I don't know why everyone seems to thing he is trade bait.

He is the best player on the Reds and is signed for far lower that what it would cost to replace his production. I am sick of the media beating this like a dead horse.

Wayne Krivsky has never said or done anything to lead me to believe that Adam Dunn would be available at any less than a premium price. If you don't think Dunn is worth 10.5 million to the Reds then something wrong with the logic.

JUAN PIERRE JUST GOT 9 MILLION PER FOR 5 YEARS.

Scrap Irony
11-27-2006, 01:08 AM
Dunn has an old ballplayer skill set, a la Tom Brunansky.

But to say he's the best player on the team? Not last season.

Harang had a better year.
So did Arroyo.
Arguably, so did Aurillia.
And Ross.

Dunn is a good-to-very good ballplayer as is. He creates a ton of runs. When he's on.

But...
the last half season was truly horrid.

his hitting philosophy has been more of a grip and rip than actually working on the craft of hitting. I, like many Reds fans, hope Dunn can put together a season wherein he can improve as a hitter. Unfortunately, there are signs that point to that being improbable.

Dunn, right now, is pretty good.

He's worth a #3 starter and a solid to above average bat.

If you're expecting anything more than that in a deal, IMO, you don't know his worth around the league. K's matter (if only in public perception). Batting average matters. Attitude matters.

How much? Idon'tknow.

It's not really quantifiable. But his perceived value by many Red's fans, IMO, is ridiculous.

Just because he's your favorite players doesn't mean he's worth more to the A's or the Angels.

redsfan4445
11-27-2006, 01:10 AM
If they do trade Dunn, I certainly hope it's NOT to the Pirates. They have nothing I want.

what|?? i would take Jason Bay and Zach Duke in a heartbeat for Dunn..

Scrap Irony
11-27-2006, 01:13 AM
Hyperbole, thy name is FCB.

I'd deal Dunn straight up for Bay.

In a hearbeat.

Wheelhouse
11-27-2006, 01:14 AM
I'm not sure that there is a team in MLB, except for maybe the Marlins or Rays, that would not take Dunn at his current contract. I don't know why everyone seems to thing he is trade bait.

He is the best player on the Reds and is signed for far lower that what it would cost to replace his production. I am sick of the media beating this like a dead horse.

Wayne Krivsky has never said or done anything to lead me to believe that Adam Dunn would be available at any less than a premium price. If you don't think Dunn is worth 10.5 million to the Reds then something wrong with the logic.

JUAN PIERRE JUST GOT 9 MILLION PER FOR 5 YEARS.

Well, I just looked at the NL MVP voting, and Dunn did not receive 1 vote (Bronson Arroyo received 1). I'm not so sure the baseball community in general is as enthusiastic about Dunn as you may think. I recently read one baseball executive as saying, "He has prodigious power, but the strikeouts are brutal and the defense is brutal." Don't get me wrong though, I'm sure a good many teams will take a flyer on Dunn, especially now that most of the stick is off the free agent market.

Jpup
11-27-2006, 01:14 AM
Dunn has an old ballplayer skill set, a la Tom Brunansky.

But to say he's the best player on the team? Not last season.

Harang had a better year.
So did Arroyo.
Arguably, so did Aurillia.
And Ross.

Dunn is a good-to-very good ballplayer as is. He creates a ton of runs. When he's on.

But...
the last half season was truly horrid.

his hitting philosophy has been more of a grip and rip than actually working on the craft of hitting. I, like many Reds fans, hope Dunn can put together a season wherein he can improve as a hitter. Unfortunately, there are signs that point to that being improbable.

Dunn, right now, is pretty good.

He's worth a #3 starter and a solid to above average bat.

If you're expecting anything more than that in a deal, IMO, you don't know his worth around the league. K's matter (if only in public perception). Batting average matters. Attitude matters.

How much? Idon'tknow.

It's not really quantifiable. But his perceived value by many Red's fans, IMO, is ridiculous.

Just because he's your favorite players doesn't mean he's worth more to the A's or the Angels.

Just because you think he strikes out too much doesn't mean that teams are not highly interested. There is a reason that his name keeps coming up. EVERYONE would like to have him. To believe anything else would be naive.

Tom Brunansky:laugh: I was going to post a side by side of their stats, but that's not even worth doing. You have been around here long enough to know that is laughable.

If Carlos Lee is worth 100 million in this market, Adam Dunn has to be worth, at least, that.

Jpup
11-27-2006, 01:16 AM
Well, I just looked at the NL MVP voting, and Dunn did not receive 1 vote (Bronson Arroyo received 1). I'm not so sure the baseball community in general is as enthusiastic about Dunn as you may think. I recently read one baseball executive as saying, "He has prodigious power, but the strikeouts are brutal and the defense is brutal." Don't get me wrong though, I'm sure a good many teams will take a flyer on Dunn, especially now that most of the stick is off the free agent market.

He didn't have enough RBIs. (see AL MVP) How many did Aaron Harang get? How many Cy Young votes did Harang get?

Scrap Irony
11-27-2006, 01:37 AM
Shrug.

The Brunansky comparables are not about numbers. It's a Bill James thing. He explained Old Player skills (power, OBP, low BA) through the example of Brunansky. Dunn, like Kevin Maas, Bruno, Balboni, Kittle, pre-Andro McGuire, et al, has those skills.

Does he have others?

Dunno.

He hasn't shown them.

I couldn't care less about strike outs. An out is an out.

But 194 of them-- along with an extremely poor second half of 2006-- scream of a one-dimensional approach that isn't working particularly well.

In his last 200 at-bats of the season, Dunn's OPS was below 650. 650! That's worse than Juan Castro. Thick of the pennant race and opposing teams pitched around him. Dunn struck out an amazing 76 times in those 200 or so at-bats. That's not a slump-- that's a sizeable concern. Add in the 16-30 runs he allows defensively each year and you begin to see a major problem.

Is he worth Juan Pierre's contract? Probably. But there's warts on Dunn, too.

He's decent. He can even be really, really good.

He's just not as good as many think he is.

Ravenlord
11-27-2006, 01:45 AM
Add in the 16-30 runs he allows defensively each year and you begin to see a major problem.


Dunn's defense doesn't add that many runs. i would say 10-15 runs (which is where I'd put Carlos Lee too for that matter). problems is, five or six of the Reds other positions are in that same negative range, and in some (short and center) far worse.

Scrap Irony
11-27-2006, 01:53 AM
It's not just the metallic glove. It's the lack of fundamentals and the lack of proper angles on balls. How many times did we see Dunn take a poor angle on a ball or jog after a ball only to see it drop a few feet in front of him?

If it were only the errors, it wouldn't matter as much. It's the balls he doesn't get to-- and should-- that are problematic. Dunn's UZR rating is at -23 runs. Although I don't much care for defensive statistics, Dunn is consistently near the bottom of the pack as it pertains to OF defense. Even in LF. (Junior's erstwhile D in CF certainly doesn't help matters, certainly, but the blame for a poor OF defense shouldn't be lain solely at the clay feet of Junior, should it?)

10 runs. 15 runs. Okay. Perhaps that's all he cost Cincinnati.

But that's another problematic area that's not been addressed by the Big Man from Texas over his career. It may not be the most glaring problem, but it points to a trend. Dunn simply hasn't put in the time it takes to be as good as he should be.

He's good. (For the most part.) No argument.

But opposing GM's know, I think, he's not as good as many Red's fans think he is.

Jpup
11-27-2006, 02:38 AM
But opposing GM's know, I think, he's not as good as many Red's fans think he is.

and certainly not as bad as some Reds fans think he is.

redsmetz
11-27-2006, 06:45 AM
Just because you think he strikes out too much doesn't mean that teams are not highly interested. There is a reason that his name keeps coming up. EVERYONE would like to have him. To believe anything else would be naive.

Tom Brunansky:laugh: I was going to post a side by side of their stats, but that's not even worth doing. You have been around here long enough to know that is laughable.

If Carlos Lee is worth 100 million in this market, Adam Dunn has to be worth, at least, that.

Actually, Dunn is compared to Brunansky through Age 26 on baseball-reference.com, but he's also compared to some Hall of Famers, as well as some other very good ballplayers. He really is right on the cusp of showing us whether he is destined for greatness or will just be an ordinary bopper (which isn't bad - even Brunansky in his day was a good ballplayer). Will he be a Reggie Jackson or Harmon Killebrew or will he be a Tom Brunansky or Pete Incaviglia? The next couple of years will tell us.


Similar Batters through Age 26
1. Darryl Strawberry (916)
2. Jose Canseco (908)
3. Reggie Jackson (906) *
4. Troy Glaus (899)
5. Tom Brunansky (899)
6. Roger Maris (890)
7. Harmon Killebrew (888) *
8. Rocky Colavito (888)
9. Tony Conigliaro (882)
10. Boog Powell (879)

Falls City Beer
11-27-2006, 10:19 AM
Hyperbole, thy name is FCB.

I'd deal Dunn straight up for Bay.

In a hearbeat.

Sorry. I was presupposing they wouldn't trade one slugger for another. So mentally I'd taken Bay off the table.

Of course I'd trade Dunn for Bay straight up.

jojo
11-27-2006, 10:54 AM
It's time to get real about Dunn. After '06, his trade value has taken a big hit. There is virtually no way that Dunn fetches a true quality starter for the rotation right now. Even thinking he fetches two quality (above average) major league position players in return is probably crazy talk.

After the winter meetings, I think Dunn's trade value will go up a bit as teams begin having their plan A dashed in the bloodletting of the free agent market. Frankly though, Dunn's trade value is severely limited by his defense AND his remaining contract. He's basically most attractive as a DH since his defense won't ding his VORP. As a DH, he would've been two wins over replacement last season (already overpaid at $7.5M). He has to be a four win player this year to not be overpaid given his $10.5M salary. Playing left field, that just isn't likely. Its arguable that he hasn't been a four win player thus far in his career factoring in his defense. His defense has been consistent (but unfortunately bad to the point that he's at the extreme) and his offense is regressing. These are flags to potential trading partners...

Now consider teams looking for a DH. Which ones really are? Also, how hard is it to get a league average DH (for the record in the AL that was roughly 87 RC in '06). Given the small number of teams that fit that bill and the fact that DH is the easiest position to fill, what are the chances Dunn is going to command a premium return let alone a quality #3 arm when he's owed $10.5M and $13M over his last two contractual years?

That's my take anyway for what its worth....

BenHayes
11-27-2006, 12:57 PM
Dunn's overall lack of improvement over the last few years, and his regression in some facets of the game will scare as many off as his contract. He simply is the same player now as he was as a rookie, lots of homers, few RBI by comparison, and lots of strikeouts. Not to mention his range in the outfield appears to have worsened.

Heath
11-27-2006, 02:22 PM
The 29, soon to be 30, year old Aubrey Huff just might add some offense for the Reds if they decided to trade Dunn for pitching.

In '06 he had a .267 BA, .344 OBP, and .469 SLG.

Why not add both Huff and Dunn! Imagine the Team K records!

...or HR's......

TeamSelig
11-27-2006, 02:34 PM
I'd love to have Aubrey Huff. What is he looking for? I'd imagine he will get a pretty good amount considering the market this year. We could play him at 1B until Griffey goes down. Then hopefully Votto would be ready by then. Just a thought.

flyer85
11-27-2006, 02:35 PM
I'd love to have Aubrey Huff. since "the trade" this team really needs another RH bat.

dunner13
11-27-2006, 02:41 PM
If the pirates get desperate take duke and gonzalez for dunn. That would be a sweet deal. Then we would have plenty of money to add an outfielder.

redsfanmia
11-27-2006, 03:20 PM
I'm not sure that there is a team in MLB, except for maybe the Marlins or Rays, that would not take Dunn at his current contract. I don't know why everyone seems to thing he is trade bait.

He is the best player on the Reds and is signed for far lower that what it would cost to replace his production. I am sick of the media beating this like a dead horse.

Wayne Krivsky has never said or done anything to lead me to believe that Adam Dunn would be available at any less than a premium price. If you don't think Dunn is worth 10.5 million to the Reds then something wrong with the logic.

JUAN PIERRE JUST GOT 9 MILLION PER FOR 5 YEARS.

I doubt that there are 8 teams that would take Dunn at 10.5 million a year and fewer that would take him at 13 million next.

westofyou
11-27-2006, 03:28 PM
I doubt that there are 8 teams that would take Dunn at 10.5 million a year and fewer that would take him at 13 million next.

In he last 3 seasons he's 15th in MLB in Runs Created vs the league average.

You undersell his game drastically in todays market.



RUNS CREATED DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB
1 Albert Pujols 223 461 238 1718
2 Barry Bonds 202 311 109 782
3 David Ortiz 188 430 242 1741
4 Todd Helton 179 399 220 1602
5 Travis Hafner 177 371 194 1422
6 Lance Berkman 168 388 220 1548
7 Manny Ramirez 162 382 220 1571
8 Bobby Abreu 148 394 246 1710
9 Alex Rodriguez 147 397 250 1778
10 Vladimir Guerrero 142 377 235 1739
11 Miguel Cabrera 122 374 252 1792
T12 J.D. Drew 118 299 181 1264
T12 Mark Teixeira 118 372 254 1817
14 Jason Bay 114 344 230 1580
15 Adam Dunn 106 355 249 1672

redsmetz
11-27-2006, 03:34 PM
Keep in mind too, that's 15th out of 240 starting positions, that among the top 7% of the league.


In he last 3 seasons he's 15th in MLB in Runs Created vs the league average.

You undersell his game drastically in todays market.



RUNS CREATED DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB
1 Albert Pujols 223 461 238 1718
2 Barry Bonds 202 311 109 782
3 David Ortiz 188 430 242 1741
4 Todd Helton 179 399 220 1602
5 Travis Hafner 177 371 194 1422
6 Lance Berkman 168 388 220 1548
7 Manny Ramirez 162 382 220 1571
8 Bobby Abreu 148 394 246 1710
9 Alex Rodriguez 147 397 250 1778
10 Vladimir Guerrero 142 377 235 1739
11 Miguel Cabrera 122 374 252 1792
T12 J.D. Drew 118 299 181 1264
T12 Mark Teixeira 118 372 254 1817
14 Jason Bay 114 344 230 1580
15 Adam Dunn 106 355 249 1672

BoydsOfSummer
11-27-2006, 04:06 PM
If it were only the errors, it wouldn't matter as much. It's the balls he doesn't get to-- and should-- that are problematic. Dunn's UZR rating is at -23 runs.

Hey Scrap Irony, where did you find the UZR's?

redsfanmia
11-27-2006, 06:05 PM
[QUOTE=westofyou;1199963]In he last 3 seasons he's 15th in MLB in Runs Created vs the league average.

You undersell his game drastically in todays market.


You may be right but to me Dunn is not a 10 million dollar a year player, I must admit that his lack of improvement and declining stats have made me sour on him.

Johnny Footstool
11-27-2006, 06:26 PM
You may be right but to me Dunn is not a 10 million dollar a year player, I must admit that his lack of improvement and declining stats have made me sour on him.

Are you sure it's not just his two-month slump that made you sour on him?

Handofdeath
11-27-2006, 06:41 PM
In he last 3 seasons he's 15th in MLB in Runs Created vs the league average.

You undersell his game drastically in todays market.



RUNS CREATED DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB
1 Albert Pujols 223 461 238 1718
2 Barry Bonds 202 311 109 782
3 David Ortiz 188 430 242 1741
4 Todd Helton 179 399 220 1602
5 Travis Hafner 177 371 194 1422
6 Lance Berkman 168 388 220 1548
7 Manny Ramirez 162 382 220 1571
8 Bobby Abreu 148 394 246 1710
9 Alex Rodriguez 147 397 250 1778
10 Vladimir Guerrero 142 377 235 1739
11 Miguel Cabrera 122 374 252 1792
T12 J.D. Drew 118 299 181 1264
T12 Mark Teixeira 118 372 254 1817
14 Jason Bay 114 344 230 1580
15 Adam Dunn 106 355 249 1672

But you are operating under the assumption that GM's are going through the Runs Created and VORP numbers. They are not crunching the numbers like some people on this board love to do and more power to all of them for that. MLB's way of looking at a player is much more down to earth and classically oriented. Most teams are not going to bother going through the equations. They are going to go by what they have seen and know about the player.

1. Prodigious power, could hit 50 homers some day
2. Fair RBI man, not always great in the clutch
3. Takes a walk as well as any other player in the Bigs
4. Strikes out more than any other hitter in the Bigs
5. Declining numbers, batting average especially bad.
6. Worst defensive OF in the Majors
7. Can steal a base
8. Questionable work ethic

Puffy
11-27-2006, 06:53 PM
But you are operating under the assumption that GM's are going through the Runs Created and VORP numbers. They are not crunching the numbers like some people on this board love to do and more power to all of them for that. MLB's way of looking at a player is much more down to earth and classically oriented. Most teams are not going to bother going through the equations. They are going to go by what they have seen and know about the player.


And you know this how?

And if this is true and, therefore, its the reason teams are giving players like Juan Pierre 9M per year, then I don't think there is much more I need to say.

westofyou
11-27-2006, 06:58 PM
They are not crunching the numbers like some people on this board love to do and more power to all of them for that.

Really?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2546


BP: You mentioned metrics a minute ago. Larry Lucchino's "Top 10 Qualifications of the Ideal General Manager," a document he wrote and used while hiring you, includes...

Epstein: (Laughs)...which he used while determining that I was no better than third, so I can't say he used them specifically while hiring me.

BP: All right. The number-two qualification was "Familiarity with, and willingness to use, modern quantitative approaches in evaluating players, in addition to traditional methods."

registerthis
11-27-2006, 07:08 PM
You may be right but to me Dunn is not a 10 million dollar a year player.

You're probably right. In this market, Dunn's good for at least $12-$15 million.

Jpup
11-27-2006, 07:11 PM
You're probably right. In this market, Dunn's good for at least $12-$15 million.

absolutely. The Reds have him at a good price. :thumbup:

jmac
11-27-2006, 07:34 PM
We could play him at 1B until Griffey goes down. Then hopefully Votto would be ready by then. Just a thought.

i do agree we need another stick but i dont see how people think wayne k is gonna set or get rid of hatt. he extended his contract and has talked of what he brings to table(his opinion naturally)
i definitely think he may be platooned but i think you can bank on him playing against the righties. I am sure if you asked wayne where we needed to shore up....1st base would not be mentioned.

Handofdeath
11-27-2006, 07:37 PM
And you know this how?

And if this is true and, therefore, its the reason teams are giving players like Juan Pierre 9M per year, then I don't think there is much more I need to say.

Pierre got 9 million because he can run fast and steal bases. Not missing a game since 2002 helps too. How many times have you read an interview of a manager, GM, or owner and heard them mention the term "runs created." How many times have you heard the term VORP mentioned? They don't care about any of that. Juan Pierre, in the Dodgers eyes, filled a need. They wanted a leadoff hitter and paid probably too much for him.

Handofdeath
11-27-2006, 07:46 PM
Really?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2546

2006 Boston Red Sox 3rd place in the A.L East.

Caveat Emperor
11-27-2006, 07:47 PM
How many times have you read an interview of a manager, GM, or owner and heard them mention the term "runs created." How many times have you heard the term VORP mentioned? They don't care about any of that.

Why would you expect a GM to make a statement for public consumption using language and terminology the majority of the public doesn't understand? GMs speak in the language of fans and laymen. Just as if I was to describe my job, I wouldn't throw in commonly used workplace slang or legalese terms.

The degree of emphasis which they place on the numbers varies, but they all have those numbers in front of them.

And, for the record, Juan Pierre got $9 million because it was necessary to prove the old adage "A fool and his money are soon parted."


2006 Boston Red Sox 3rd place in the A.L East.

Check the rings.
http://www.bosox1.com/SoxRing.jpg

westofyou
11-27-2006, 07:50 PM
2006 Boston Red Sox 3rd place in the A.L East.

St. Louis Cardinals 2006 World Series Winner

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4024


BP: Without getting into any areas that are covered by your non-disclosure agreement, is the way that a team like the Cardinals goes about evaluating players radically different from the statistical evaluation that you would see at Baseball Prospectus or at other venues that do that type of analysis? Is there stuff that's just a generation ahead, or is it relatively similar?

MJ: I would say it's more of the latter. There is a real limitation in this business that lies in the granularity of data that's available. I think that most organizations that are doing any sorts of statistical analysis, whether that be Baseball Prospectus or the St. Louis Cardinals, is that we are all working with fundamentally the same core data, which have certain limitations to it. I think if you put a few smart people on top of that data that they are going to reach some pretty similar conclusions. Definitely with different approaches, but some similar conclusions come out the other end.

I think the real difference-maker is in establishing ways to get better granularity of data at every level. For example, at the major league level defense is the next chapter that people want to write and frankly, with all the data that I've seen available to clubs like the St. Louis Cardinals, the data aren't really at a granularity that's fine enough to make any real solid conclusions. At the other end of the spectrum, at the amateur draft, one would have a really hard time finding significant amounts of, let's say, high school statistical information. There's still a question of whether that information would be useful, but the story there is still that the data is relatively difficult to find.

I've digressed. To get back to your first question: I think that most organizations are probably doing slight variations of the same thing. I think the real difference maker will be in collecting more data. Certain organizations may be investing money in finding a greater granularity of data, I don't know, but if they are they're probably at the next level.

redsfanmia
11-27-2006, 07:53 PM
Are you sure it's not just his two-month slump that made you sour on him?

Positive, He comes off as lazy and not committed thats what has made me sour on him.

redsfanmia
11-27-2006, 07:56 PM
You're probably right. In this market, Dunn's good for at least $12-$15 million.

Would you feel comfortable with Adam Dunn eating up 1/5th of your entire payroll? Sounds like a recipe for a last place team to me.

Handofdeath
11-27-2006, 08:02 PM
Why would you expect a GM to make a statement for public consumption using language and terminology the majority of the public doesn't understand? GMs speak in the language of fans and laymen. Just as if I was to describe my job, I wouldn't throw in commonly used workplace slang or legalese terms.

The degree of emphasis which they place on the numbers varies, but they all have those numbers in front of them.

And, for the record, Juan Pierre got $9 million because it was necessary to prove the old adage "A fool and his money are soon parted."



Check the rings.
http://www.bosox1.com/SoxRing.jpg

Don't you mean ring? 2004 is seeming further and further away. I can just barely smell the fumes now. I won't say whether the Pierre signing was dumb or not but if the Dodgers think he's worth it, then more power to them. I'm sure that most teams have some form of the numbers in front of them but some things don't measure a players true worth. You can't measure defensive indifference and you can't measure work ethic.

Mario-Rijo
11-27-2006, 08:24 PM
Just a side note here, but one that keeps coming up!


There is still an unshakeable feeling that the Tigers will make a whopper of a package deal. It could involve a left-handed reliever, a new outfielder, an heir-apparent to Pudge Rodriguez at catcher, a prospect -- any combination of the above
-- Detroit News

http://detroitnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061127/SPORTS08/611270331/1004/SPORTS


It sorta looks like it's something Krivsky could be building towards. 1st you sign a LH set-up guy whom (tell me if this sounds familiar) can also get out righties, which can easily replace one Rheal Cormier. 2nd you deal off a guy that will save you approx 2 million towards a possible replacement, and then sign yet another catcher who gives you some depth at the position. 3rd rumors abound that you may have interest in obtaining another starting catcher who has strikingly similar splits as the guy who is about to get a raise who oddly enough likely has his best trade value of perhaps his entire career. Also it just so happens that said tradeable catcher has a good mix of power, gamecalling skills and youth that would make him an ideal fit in a vast ballpark.

All this after your GM talked about improving his defense (by addition or subtraction I would assume), making more contact and improving your pitching is always important both in the pen and the rotation.

That just keeps sounding like us. I am still in the corner of Keeping Dunn unless we can command a return commensurate with something between what Dunn's potential is and what he currently is! I guess what I am seeing is something along these lines. At 1st I thought Cormier but I am thinking that it's likely gonna take Bray to get it done. Of course I would start with Cormier and hope they bite but I would deal Bray if need be.

Dunn, Ross, Bray and say BHarris or Janish (they need a MI prospect) to Detroit.

Bonderman, Rodney and Craig Monroe to Cincy.

I think it's a fair deal both ways. But do us all a favor before you argue that we cannot get a frontline pitcher for Dunn, check out Bondermans winshares over the past 3-4 yrs compared to Dunn's. I have not even seen them but I could just about guess how far apart they are, hitters although more easily found are far more important to the teams success than any individual pitcher. Monroe could play RF, Griffey to LF (Where he belongs if anywhere in the field) and Freel/Deno could play CF. Monroe isn't anywhere near the offensive player Dunn is but he is a decent offensive player. And with the CF's available after '07 (Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells) and with Dunn off the books we could really make a nice push at '08 while staying competitive for '07.

Think about this '08 Rotation:

Harang
Bonderman
Arroyo
Bailey
???

pedro
11-27-2006, 08:25 PM
Ned Colletti is going to destroy the Dodgers, just you wait and see.

UPRedsFan
11-27-2006, 08:30 PM
All this talk about trading Dunn this year seems to fly in the face of the sell high buy low philosophy. Someone in another thread pointed out the strategy of trading Ross now to cash in on his (possibly only) good year. Trading Dunn after a down year doesn't seem smart. Here's hoping Wayne waits for Dunn to bounce back with higher OBP and batting average and then look at possible options late in the year or next offseason.

TC81190
11-27-2006, 08:31 PM
Just because you think he strikes out too much doesn't mean that teams are not highly interested. There is a reason that his name keeps coming up. EVERYONE would like to have him. To believe anything else would be naive.

Tom Brunansky:laugh: I was going to post a side by side of their stats, but that's not even worth doing. You have been around here long enough to know that is laughable.

If Carlos Lee is worth 100 million in this market, Adam Dunn has to be worth, at least, that.

Righto...

jojo
11-27-2006, 08:45 PM
6. Worst defensive OF in the Majors

Actually that would be his buddy over in center........... :cool:

Caveat Emperor
11-27-2006, 08:51 PM
Don't you mean ring? 2004 is seeming further and further away.

Yup.

And if you squint real, real hard you might be able to make out 1990 back in the distance.

fewfirstchoice
11-27-2006, 08:55 PM
Rijo I agree with ya man.I would put Cormier in for Bray and you have your self a deal.The signings by the Reds and the Detroit news reporting what they report point right at a trade with the Tigers and Reds just points that way.

dougdirt
11-27-2006, 09:05 PM
Is Adam Dunn going to be worth his contract next year? I dont know. He however wasnt worth his contract in 2006. His defense cost him nearly all the runs he waas worth with his bat.

pedro
11-27-2006, 09:14 PM
Is Adam Dunn going to be worth his contract next year? I dont know. He however wasnt worth his contract in 2006. His defense cost him nearly all the runs he waas worth with his bat.

Despite Dunn's relatively poor year in 2006 your statement smacks of hyperbole.

Natty Redlocks
11-27-2006, 09:18 PM
All this talk about trading Dunn this year seems to fly in the face of the sell high buy low philosophy. Someone in another thread pointed out the strategy of trading Ross now to cash in on his (possibly only) good year. Trading Dunn after a down year doesn't seem smart. Here's hoping Wayne waits for Dunn to bounce back with higher OBP and batting average and then look at possible options late in the year or next offseason.

This is the Dunn quandary. His '08 option is voided if he is traded, and he has a NTC if it is picked up. If you're going to deal him, the best time is long past. If you know you're not going to keep him, may as well get what you can for him now. His value may increase some after his usual hot start, but probably not much as everyone sees him as a poor finisher.

Heath
11-27-2006, 10:50 PM
Ned Colletti is going to destroy the Dodgers, just you wait and see.

That and Frank McCourt's meddling is a receipe for a dry spell. You know, the Dodgers haven't played in a NLCS since Mickey Hatcher's one hit wonder in 1988?

These aren't your father's Bums.

Raisor
11-28-2006, 12:21 PM
Is Adam Dunn going to be worth his contract next year? I dont know. He however wasnt worth his contract in 2006. His defense cost him nearly all the runs he waas worth with his bat.

I'd like to see you try to prove that.

Seriously.

Reds Nd2
11-28-2006, 01:08 PM
His defense cost him nearly all the runs he waas worth with his bat.


I'd like to see you try to prove that.

Seriously.

Batting Runs Above Average (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=211) 18

Runs Above Average (For LF) (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=140) -15

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/dunnad01.php

flyer85
11-28-2006, 01:11 PM
Batting Runs Above Average (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=211) 18

Runs Above Average (For LF) (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=140) -15

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/dunnad01.phpusing the above replacement numbers would be more correct(especially in the case of the Reds as their alternatives were replacement at best).

Using the average numbers Jr comes out at a -13.

Reds Nd2
11-28-2006, 01:16 PM
Ned Colletti is going to destroy the Dodgers, just you wait and see.

That and Tom Lasorda.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 01:18 PM
That and Tom Lasorda.Lasorda has been there forever, don't think think you can blame it on the rotund one.

Reds Nd2
11-28-2006, 01:27 PM
using the above replacement numbers would be more correct(especially in the case of the Reds as their alternatives were replacement at best).

Using the average numbers Jr comes out at a -13.

Perhaps, but it would seem better to compare him to the average than to a replacement player. Because the replacement player isn't very good doesn't mean Dunns performance was that much better. Correct?

Reds Nd2
11-28-2006, 01:32 PM
Lasorda has been there forever, don't think think you can blame it on the rotund one.

I'm still blame him in part for the Depodesta firing.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 01:33 PM
Perhaps, but it would seem better to compare him to the average than to a replacement player. Because the replacement player isn't very good doesn't mean Dunns performance was that much better. Correct?I think you're missing the entire concept of replacement. Repalcement level is " that average" player that resides on the bench. Even so, Wouldn't it be more expedient to fix -13 before +3?

flyer85
11-28-2006, 01:35 PM
I'm still blame him in part for the Depodesta firing.
Depodesta got himself fired by going into the wrong situation without the authority to clean house. He was setup to be fired from the beginning.

Reds Nd2
11-28-2006, 01:55 PM
I think you're missing the entire concept of replacement. Repalcement level is " that average" player that resides on the bench. Even so, Wouldn't it be more expedient to fix -13 before +3?

No, I understand it. I'm not sure why looking at the replacement level comps would give us a better understanding of a players performance than looking at the average comps though. It doesn't matter that Dunn is better than bench fodder. That doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Comparing him to an average gives us a bit more info on his actual performance, IMO.

Yes, I agree and fixing the -13 might have the added benefit of improving the +3 too. The -13 should have been fixed awhile back.

Reds Nd2
11-28-2006, 01:57 PM
Depodesta got himself fired by going into the wrong situation without the authority to clean house. He was setup to be fired from the beginning.

It definantly wasn't the best place for him to go. Didn't he get hired at San Diego?

flyer85
11-28-2006, 02:02 PM
No, I understand it. I'm not sure why looking at the replacement level comps would give us a better understanding of a players performance than looking at the average comps though.because in general you replace with replacement level, not average.

If you use average all it tells you that Dunn is 3 runs better than the "average" LF. In general, you don't have average to replace a starter, you hopefulle have something above replacement level. But as we have seen in the case of the Reds they seem to like below replacement level options.

BigRed
11-28-2006, 02:03 PM
Bottom line, If you can't get a solid return for Dunn, do not trade him. I will take the 40 homeruns and the strikeouts before I give him up for less than quality. Maybe he has a come back year and his value becomes higher at the trade deadline. Just don't trade for the sake of trading.

dougdirt
11-28-2006, 02:05 PM
Batting Runs Above Average (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=211) 18

Runs Above Average (For LF) (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=140) -15

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/dunnad01.php

Thank you very much.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 02:16 PM
Thank you very much.
Reds for 2006(BRAA + FRAA)

AD +3
KG -13
RF +10
BP -16
EE +1
SH +5
RA +13
DR +17
RC -8 (as a Red)

AK +16(as a Red)
FL -4 (as a Red)

AK was pretty darn good and Felipe Lopez was better than Brandon Phillips.

Interesting numbers.

BTW, Alex Gonzalez was -18 for 2006. Seems like they are going the wrong direction.

pedro
11-28-2006, 02:16 PM
Anyone know what the average salary for a major league OF is?

it was 3.5 mil in 2000. I'd imagine it's quite a lot more now.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 02:24 PM
it was 3.5 mil in 2000. I'd imagine it's quite a lot more now.especially after the last 2 weeks.

Reds Nd2
11-28-2006, 06:07 PM
because in general you replace with replacement level, not average.

If you use average all it tells you that Dunn is 3 runs better than the "average" LF. In general, you don't have average to replace a starter, you hopefulle have something above replacement level. But as we have seen in the case of the Reds they seem to like below replacement level options.

I'm not trying to be obstinate here, but the discussion isn't about replacing Dunn in the lineup. The question, or rather blanketed statement, was Dunn's "defense cost him nearly all the runs he was worth with his bat". In trying to ascertain if that in fact is true, I think it would be better to use numbers that are more likely to reflect his peer group (league average) than his likely less valuable (replacement level) counterparts.

Reds Nd2
12-01-2006, 12:21 AM
Bumping this back up for SteelSD. I'd really like to hear your comments on this.