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cincrazy
11-27-2006, 05:29 PM
Well ladies and gentleman, I've been a very busy man, and have been MIA from this site for a while. But, I'm glad to be back, and I'm curious as to how optimistic everyone is for the coming season. I have to be honest, I don't think we'll be a playoff team as currently constituted, but I can't remember the last time I had so much confidence in the Reds front office. I truly believe that sooner or later, these guys will get it right.

Krivsky isn't panicking, and so far (knock on wood) hasn't thrown millions of dollars at a vastly overrated starting pitcher. With Bailey, Wood, Votto, Bruce and others on the horizon, I'd rather see him stay patient and make some moves for the next few years.

This is my first time here in months, so I wanted to see what some opinions were. Do you feel comfortable enough in our future to be patient, or do you want us to make a BIG splash this offseason, whether it be trade or FA signing? I

I know it's not even December yet, but I'm already excited about the upcoming season. I think this team's on the right path. I'm not too concerned with the moves our rival's have made. Soriano and Lee will certainly help the Cubs and Astros, respectively, but long term, are those really sound deals? For the short term we may be in trouble, but when Soriano starts to slow down and Lee is the size of the Goodyear blimp, I think we'll be looking pretty in a few years!

Falls City Beer
11-27-2006, 05:37 PM
Well ladies and gentleman, I've been a very busy man, and have been MIA from this site for a while. But, I'm glad to be back, and I'm curious as to how optimistic everyone is for the coming season. I have to be honest, I don't think we'll be a playoff team as currently constituted, but I can't remember the last time I had so much confidence in the Reds front office. I truly believe that sooner or later, these guys will get it right.

Krivsky isn't panicking, and so far (knock on wood) hasn't thrown millions of dollars at a vastly overrated starting pitcher. With Bailey, Wood, Votto, Bruce and others on the horizon, I'd rather see him stay patient and make some moves for the next few years.

This is my first time here in months, so I wanted to see what some opinions were. Do you feel comfortable enough in our future to be patient, or do you want us to make a BIG splash this offseason, whether it be trade or FA signing? I

I know it's not even December yet, but I'm already excited about the upcoming season. I think this team's on the right path. I'm not too concerned with the moves our rival's have made. Soriano and Lee will certainly help the Cubs and Astros, respectively, but long term, are those really sound deals? For the short term we may be in trouble, but when Soriano starts to slow down and Lee is the size of the Goodyear blimp, I think we'll be looking pretty in a few years!


You're excited because they've avoided stepping in the bucket of doodie?

Jeez, wait until they actually improve the club first. ;)

I'll be honest, for as much griping as I do, I still can't exactly say where this team is going.

TOBTTReds
11-27-2006, 05:41 PM
I personally don't like the direction. I'm not a "strikeout less" type of guy as long as there is production. You have to get on base at a decent rate unless you prevent a lot more runs than AGonz will. Not looking forward to a Dunn deal, unless it nets a MAJOR piece.

terminator
11-27-2006, 05:43 PM
I'm more excited for 2008 or 2009 when we have the young talent ready to come up and have some payroll flexibility from Milton and Griffey's contracts being gone.

So far I'm glad Krivsky hasn't done any of the deals our rivals have done. I would have passed on Lee, Soriano, Pierre, Matthews and Speier. I don't think I've seen a FA signing I like this offseason aside from Gonzo and Casey.

Falls City Beer
11-27-2006, 05:46 PM
I'm more excited for 2008 or 2009 when we have the young talent ready to come up and have some payroll flexibility from Milton and Griffey's contracts being gone.

.

The only difference-maker in the minors, IMO, is Jay Bruce, who's likely to appear in 2009 at the earliest. No question that he's about as real as you're going to get as a prospect. He looks fantastic.

Bailey may make a dent in 2008, but I'd have to rank that as the longest of long shots when you consider the historical failure of this team to rear young pitching.

But I don't see a single other blue-chip minor leaguer in the bunch. Not a single one.

Redny
11-27-2006, 05:48 PM
I liked the Gonzalez signing. The Stanton signing is okay given what relievers are going for nowadays. I won't really be able to answer the title question until I see where things go over the next few weeks.

Ltlabner
11-27-2006, 05:48 PM
I think we are headed in a good direction although there are many pitfalls ahead.

Kriv dealt with MI defense by adding Gonzo. He dealt with the 3 headed catching monster and saved some money (not as much as I would have liked). Added another arm in the bullpen (I'm not real thrilled about that one). Also, he's added some ML contracts to put in the pipeline for later on or as trade bait.

These are steps in the right direction. Nothing earth shattering, but steps that improve the team and move ahead none-the-less.

The major pitfalls revlove around starting pitching and another RH bat for 1B. Will they spend money to get them? Trade for them? Both? Stay with the staus quo (which would get a big thumbs down from me)? Lots of questions to be answered.

Not trade or FA activity, but how they deal with Jr next year will be a huge question IMO. If he's in RF and Deno/Freel are in CF I think that's a massive step in the "right direction".

But I like the level of activity we've seen here in Novemeber. Especially considering the wacky FA market.

Johnny Footstool
11-27-2006, 06:00 PM
The problem is, this team currently has a two-year window (at most) to be competitive. Arroyo will almost certainly be gone, and Harang may be gone as well unless he inks a multi-year deal. Dunn has two more years on his contract. Freel has one. Griffey aged dramatically last season and may be waiver fodder after 2007. We're talking about the core of the team here.

You can't expect Votto, Bruce, and Bailey to produce like veterans in 2008. They'll likely need a few years of seasoning. And by that time, Ross, Phillips, and Encarnacion will be expensive and/or approaching free agency.

The 2008-09 Reds will have plenty of holes to fill -- more than the 2007 Reds, IMO.

The team has cash right now. Overpaying a guy like Ted Lilly wouldn't be such a bad thing, even if he ends up like Eric Milton v.2.0. As I've said before, another Eric Milton would hurt the team a lot less than another Kearns/Lopez fiasco.

I say go for it.

nmculbreth
11-27-2006, 06:34 PM
I'm happy that the Reds haven't gone out and made a splash (bad) signing so far but I'm still not sure the club has a real direction yet. After watching last years squad I think it's pretty safe to say this club is more than a defensive SS and another ancient middle reliever short of being competitive and given the lack of quality starting pitching / closers on the market I'm not sure the club is going to be able to adequately address it's most pressing needs. In my humble opinion spending a lot of money on spare parts for a mediocre team makes no sense.

I don't know about anyone else but if the club isn't going to win anyway I would have rather seen the club give some of their minor leaguers like Olmedo or Harris a shot rather than locking up a defensive SS with a sub .300 OBP to a multi year deal.

M2
11-27-2006, 06:39 PM
I'll be honest, for as much griping as I do, I still can't exactly say where this team is going.

I can't either. It's fun in a certain way. I knew where it was going when DanO was running the show and hated every second of it.

Redsland
11-27-2006, 10:54 PM
The problem is, this team currently has a two-year window (at most) to be competitive. Arroyo will almost certainly be gone, and Harang may be gone as well unless he inks a multi-year deal. Dunn has two more years on his contract. Freel has one. Griffey aged dramatically last season and may be waiver fodder after 2007. We're talking about the core of the team here.

The team has cash right now. Overpaying a guy like Ted Lilly wouldn't be such a bad thing, even if he ends up like Eric Milton v.2.0. As I've said before, another Eric Milton would hurt the team a lot less than another Kearns/Lopez fiasco.

I say go for it.
Same here, Johnny.

flyer85
11-27-2006, 11:00 PM
can't see that they are going anywhere. Seem to be running in place.

Spring~Fields
11-28-2006, 12:19 AM
The problem is, this team currently has a two-year window (at most) to be competitive. Arroyo will almost certainly be gone, and Harang may be gone as well unless he inks a multi-year deal. Dunn has two more years on his contract. Freel has one. Griffey aged dramatically last season and may be waiver fodder after 2007. We're talking about the core of the team here.

You can't expect Votto, Bruce, and Bailey to produce like veterans in 2008. They'll likely need a few years of seasoning. And by that time, Ross, Phillips, and Encarnacion will be expensive and/or approaching free agency.

The 2008-09 Reds will have plenty of holes to fill -- more than the 2007 Reds, IMO.

The team has cash right now. Overpaying a guy like Ted Lilly wouldn't be such a bad thing, even if he ends up like Eric Milton v.2.0. As I've said before, another Eric Milton would hurt the team a lot less than another Kearns/Lopez fiasco.

I say go for it.

Johnny has laid this out very well and really seems to have his finger on the pulse, while speaking to my concerns.

BRM
11-28-2006, 12:42 PM
can't see that they are going anywhere. Seem to be running in place.

Well, I guess that's better than running backwards.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 12:48 PM
Well, I guess that's better than running backwards.trading Larue and adding Moeller may have started that process.

redsmetz
11-28-2006, 12:53 PM
I'm not certain I'm as enthusiastic as you, but I'm very anxious to see how this organization develops in the next few years. There is a lot of rebuilding to do after 15+ years of mismangement. It's understandably that everyone is primed for some major activity, but we may well have the misfortune of needing cogs now in a market that I've termed "volatile". The prudent thing is to be steady in the rebuilding.

Will we compete this year? Hard to say. Probably not, but few expected the Reds to compete last year and they, in fact, did compete, albeit in a dismal division in a league that seemed like the family outcast. That said, I hope we're nominally competitive (how's that for punting?).

Redsland
11-28-2006, 12:54 PM
trading Larue and adding Moeller may have started that process.
Lopez out, Clayton in.

Encarnacion out, Aurilia in.

Michalik out, Kim in.

White out, Yan in.

Wagner out, Majewski in.

:bang:

BRM
11-28-2006, 12:56 PM
Lopez out, Clayton in.

Encarnacion out, Aurilia in.

Michalik out, Kim in.

White out, Yan in.

Wagner out, Majewski in.

:bang:

I'd classify those last three as running in place, more or less. The first two...definitely running backwards.

Ltlabner
11-28-2006, 12:57 PM
Lopez out, Clayton in. Clayton out, Gonzo in

Encarnacion out, Aurilia in. Encarnacion back in.

Michalik out, Kim in. Kim out

White out, Yan in. Yan out

Wagner out, Majewski in.

:bang:

There...cleaned that up a bit.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 12:58 PM
I'd classify those last three as running in place, more or less. The first two...definitely running backwards.really only the first one. While I am not an RA fan I am more than willing to admit he had a heckuva season, better than EE. EE has a ton of potential but in 2006 RA was the better player.

westofyou
11-28-2006, 12:59 PM
I'd classify those last three as running in place, more or less. The first two...definitely running backwards.

Ryan Wagner has 3 straight seasons with 15 BR a game and over 30IP, that's a heck of a lot of base runners.

Johnny Footstool
11-28-2006, 01:05 PM
really only the first one. While I am not an RA fan I am more than willing to admit he had a heckuva season, better than EE. EE has a ton of potential but in 2006 RA was the better player.

Which one is a better bet to repeat or improve upon his performance in 2007 and 2008?

M2
11-28-2006, 01:17 PM
really only the first one. While I am not an RA fan I am more than willing to admit he had a heckuva season, better than EE. EE has a ton of potential but in 2006 RA was the better player.

In some ways. Rich turned out to be DanO's best investment. He was a good guy to have hanging around when holes arose. Plus, the Reds stand to get two draft picks for him. His managers made two unfortunate choices with him that caused deserved consternation:

1) Handing him the SS job over Felipe Lopez prior to the 2005 season
2) Hitting him cleanup vs. RHPs in 2006

Take those two things away and you probably wouldn't hear much complaint about him.

BRM
11-28-2006, 01:24 PM
In some ways. Rich turned out to be DanO's best investment. He was a good guy to have hanging around when holes arose. Plus, the Reds stand to get two draft picks for him. His managers made two unfortunate choices with him that caused deserved consternation:

1) Handing him the SS job over Felipe Lopez prior to the 2005 season
2) Hitting him cleanup vs. RHPs in 2006

Take those two things away and you probably wouldn't hear much complaint about him.

Lots of folks never really got over the first one. Rich was a marked man from that point on.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 01:27 PM
Lots of folks never really got over the first one. Rich was a marked man from that point on.and he wasn't that good in 2005. 2006 was different and I'll give Rich credit for it. Now give the Reds their draft picks and we can all move on.

Redhook
11-28-2006, 04:08 PM
Personally, at this moment (late Nov.), I'm disappointed with where we're headed. Unless Krivsky can pull a few more rabbits (Arroyo, Ross, Phillips) out of his hat, I just don't see a way this team can compete in 2007. I'm guessing his Majik has run out, pun intended.

With the destruction of our offense last year, I don't think we'll have a chance unless we get a #1 or #2 starter this winter. With the market the way it is and what we have to offer I don't see that happening unless Dunn is traded. However, if that happens we may go from first to dead last in runs scored (NL) over the course of 2 years. Not good.

2008 offers hope with Milton's contract being gone. Dunn at 13.5 million might be gone too. That's over $20 million to play with. And hopefully Votto and Bailey will be producing at the major league level too.

Like some have said before, you can't fix 15 years of mismanagement in one year. If Wayne makes the right moves this winter we may be good 2008 and beyond. But if he makes one more poor trade (Dunn maybe?), he might set us back until the next decade. We'll see what happens, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

flyer85
11-28-2006, 04:13 PM
2008 offers hope with Milton's contract being gone. Dunn at 13.5 million might be gone too. That's over $20 million to play with. and it won't buy much in the current market, especially a team with multiple holes.

Johnny Footstool
11-28-2006, 04:32 PM
and it won't buy much in the current market, especially a team with multiple holes.

Exactly. A front office with $20 million to play with isn't going to be able to fill very many holes, especially two years from now if the market keeps growing like crazy. They'll sell fans on the payflex shell game, but in the end the money won't make a difference.

There are fewer holes in the team now than there will be in 2008. Spend now.

Patpacillosjock
11-28-2006, 05:54 PM
i hate where this team is headed. its like that chick that you are in love with,flirting you all night and then when the bar is closed she goes home with her roomates.

The Reds are the baseball equivalent of a "flirt"..there I said it.


*fixed*

buckeyenut
11-28-2006, 06:28 PM
I hate the analogy, especially since there are kids that visit here. I hope the mods delete it ASAP

That said, I do understand your point.

Patpacillosjock
11-28-2006, 06:37 PM
I hate the analogy, especially since there are kids that visit here. I hope the mods delete it ASAP

That said, I do understand your point.


duly noted and fixed.sorry.

TheWalls
11-28-2006, 09:18 PM
I'm more excited for 2008 or 2009 when we have the young talent ready to come up and have some payroll flexibility from Milton and Griffey's contracts being gone.

So far I'm glad Krivsky hasn't done any of the deals our rivals have done. I would have passed on Lee, Soriano, Pierre, Matthews and Speier. I don't think I've seen a FA signing I like this offseason aside from Gonzo and Casey.

Could agree more with both of these comments, I just wish I didn't feel like we were such a bottom feeder. Whatever slips past all the bigger fish we'll suck on it a good long time (see extensive list of retread pitchers) and decide if it's digestable.

Ltlabner
11-28-2006, 09:23 PM
Could agree more with both of these comments, I just wish I didn't feel like we were such a bottom feeder. Whatever slips past all the bigger fish we'll suck on it a good long time (see extensive list of retread pitchers) and decide if it's digestable.

Yet many of these big FA contracts are going out to retread players. Adam Eaton? Juan Pierre? Gary Mathews Jr? It's not like it's the cream of the crop that's being picked up. And those we would consider cream are being locked up with franchise crippling contracts.

cincrazy
11-28-2006, 10:41 PM
I just feel that Krivsky will build this team the right way. Terry Ryan didn't turn the Twins into a big time success over night, and the same can be said for the A's and Billy Beane. Krivsky is going to need time to turn this around, to get the farm system kicking, and time to evaluate player's that will help us, and player's that will be traded for whatever needs we might lack. I'm very realistic in knowing that this team probably won't compete for much in 2007, but I think the future still looks pretty good. I just can't see this current regime accepting a loser. Hopefully my optimism pays off... too often though it comes back to bite me in the behind.

VR
11-28-2006, 10:49 PM
Yes.

It's nice going into the offseason to not be looking for starters #1-4.

Johnny Footstool
11-29-2006, 12:41 AM
I just feel that Krivsky will build this team the right way. Terry Ryan didn't turn the Twins into a big time success over night, and the same can be said for the A's and Billy Beane. Krivsky is going to need time to turn this around, to get the farm system kicking, and time to evaluate player's that will help us, and player's that will be traded for whatever needs we might lack. I'm very realistic in knowing that this team probably won't compete for much in 2007, but I think the future still looks pretty good. I just can't see this current regime accepting a loser. Hopefully my optimism pays off... too often though it comes back to bite me in the behind.

See my earlier post. The core of this Reds team will be gone after 2008, and the current crop of prospects won't fill all those holes. If Krivsky doesn't plan on seriously competing in 2007, he needs to blow everything up -- trade Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, and Freel for high-level prospects and dump Griffey for pennies.

"Trading Arroyo and Harang is crazy," you'll say.

No, crazy is keeping them in the fold, not paying for any more talent, and trying to eek out 82 wins a year for the next two seasons. Trading those guys would bring in some serious major-league ready prospects with real talent for 2008-2009.

Personally, I'd rather see Krivsky throw some money around and try to win it all in 2007, before the core of the team disappears. But if that doesn't happen, I'd rather he get peak value for those players.

jojo
11-29-2006, 12:49 AM
"Trading Arroyo and Harang is crazy," you'll say.



Trading Harang is crazy, I'd say. :cool:

The Reds need to take their FSN money and put it toward buying out Harang's arb eligible years and locking him up long term....

Harang+Homer= reasonable future IMHO....

EvansvilleReds
11-29-2006, 01:19 AM
I want to see if Dunn is traded, and for what, before making any bold pronouncements about right direction or wrong direction.

I'm wondering if Dunn would bring a bigger and better return if they waited until mid-season, rather than now, to trade him. If Dunn has a good first half and the Reds are out of contention (both are distinct possibilities) then surely some contending team desperate for left-handed pop would pay handsomely.

Now, however, many teams might look at those strikeout totals and RISP average and question how much they really want the guy.

Spring~Fields
11-29-2006, 07:35 AM
See my earlier post. The core of this Reds team will be gone after 2008, and the current crop of prospects won't fill all those holes. If Krivsky doesn't plan on seriously competing in 2007, he needs to blow everything up -- trade Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, and Freel for high-level prospects and dump Griffey for pennies.

"Trading Arroyo and Harang is crazy," you'll say.

No, crazy is keeping them in the fold, not paying for any more talent, and trying to eek out 82 wins a year for the next two seasons. Trading those guys would bring in some serious major-league ready prospects with real talent for 2008-2009.
Personally, I'd rather see Krivsky throw some money around and try to win it all in 2007, before the core of the team disappears. But if that doesn't happen, I'd rather he get peak value for those players.

What you are writing does not avoid certain possibilities that this team will face in the seasons to come.

When you speak of the core players eventually moving on, or if Krivsky cannot afford to upgrade the team now to win, then he needs to use his player resources to rebuild the team, I believe makes a great deal of sense. So many of us argue or retort while leaving out what you have written on these two pages, (fail to address) and when we (posters) leave out what you are not avoiding and are not looking away from, our points seem somewhat void.

You make a great deal of sense and it does seem like the most realistic path for Krivsky to take to improve the product in Cincinnati.

mth123
11-29-2006, 07:48 AM
What you are writing does not avoid certain possibilities that this team will face in the seasons to come.

When you speak of the core players eventually moving on, or if Krivsky cannot afford to upgrade the team now to win, then he needs to use his player resources to rebuild the team, I believe makes a great deal of sense. So many of us argue or retort while leaving out what you have written on these two pages, (fail to address) and when we (posters) leave out what you are not avoiding and are not looking away from, our points seem somewhat void.

You make a great deal of sense and it does seem like the most realistic path for Krivsky to take to improve the product in Cincinnati.

Or maybe instead of diving into the FA Pool, he should use his increased payroll to lock-up Dunn, Arroyo and Harang to hold the window open until real help arrives (big contracts off the books, Bailey, Votto and Bruce up and helping).

Of course, if they are intent on leaving then the trade and rebuild makes perfect sense.

Spring~Fields
11-29-2006, 08:15 AM
Or maybe instead of diving into the FA Pool, he should use his increased payroll to lock-up Dunn, Arroyo and Harang to hold the window open until real help arrives (big contracts off the books, Bailey, Votto and Bruce up and helping).

Of course, if they are intent on leaving then the trade and rebuild makes perfect sense.

That substitution of spending available funds to secure the pitchers when they cost so much in today’s market seems to have a lot of merit. That day is coming and the Harang and Arroyo that we witnessed last year would be very difficult to replace realistically with today's prices for reliable pitchers. Of course I don't know what their "intent" might be, and when you say "lock-up" do you mean contracts longer than three years?

Ltlabner
11-29-2006, 08:43 AM
I have a few concerns with the burn it down idea. I just posted something simular in a different thread so here's the short version.

1) Do we trust our current scouting staff to find the "almost ready" prospects we'll need to count on to be successfull down the road? Wayne's only had since the end of last season to deal with neglect dating back to the mid 1980's.

2) Wayne will be gone (IMO) long before the end of the 5 year plan. It's just how things work. So then a new guy comes in, and the whole process starts over. It never ends.

3) We need extra revenue now. The only way to this is increased attendence which will only come through winning teams. We all dissagree on how Wayne is building a winning team for both now and later (at the same time), but he has to walk this tightrope to woo back casual fans.

Redhook
11-29-2006, 09:32 AM
See my earlier post. The core of this Reds team will be gone after 2008, and the current crop of prospects won't fill all those holes. If Krivsky doesn't plan on seriously competing in 2007, he needs to blow everything up -- trade Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, and Freel for high-level prospects and dump Griffey for pennies.

"Trading Arroyo and Harang is crazy," you'll say.

No, crazy is keeping them in the fold, not paying for any more talent, and trying to eek out 82 wins a year for the next two seasons. Trading those guys would bring in some serious major-league ready prospects with real talent for 2008-2009.

Personally, I'd rather see Krivsky throw some money around and try to win it all in 2007, before the core of the team disappears. But if that doesn't happen, I'd rather he get peak value for those players.

I agree more with trying to rebuild than trying to contend in 2007.

First of all, Krivsky doesn't have the money to throw around to build a contender. And if he did, besides Schmidt, who would we get that would actually make this team world championship worthy? I think there's too many significant holes.

Second, blowing the team up makes more sense for right now. However, I wouldn't trade Harang and Arroyo if you're trying to compete in 2008 and 2009. Sign Harang long-term around $8 million/yr. I think that's reasonable. And with Arroyo, he's locked up for 2 more years. Yes, his value is high right now, but he's extremely affordable and if he doesn't repeat this year again, he may be somewhat affordable again in a couple of years. Pitching leads to championships, so I would keep those two as long as possible.

Third, trading Dunn, Freel, and Griffey makes sense. Obviously, Dunn would bring back a nice return. And in this market, Freel and Griffey might get alot more in return than previously expected. You never know, if I was Wayne, I would definitely try to trade both Freel and Griffey along with Dunn if the return is right.

Falls City Beer
11-29-2006, 10:30 AM
See my earlier post. The core of this Reds team will be gone after 2008, and the current crop of prospects won't fill all those holes. If Krivsky doesn't plan on seriously competing in 2007, he needs to blow everything up -- trade Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, and Freel for high-level prospects and dump Griffey for pennies.

"Trading Arroyo and Harang is crazy," you'll say.

No, crazy is keeping them in the fold, not paying for any more talent, and trying to eek out 82 wins a year for the next two seasons. Trading those guys would bring in some serious major-league ready prospects with real talent for 2008-2009.

Personally, I'd rather see Krivsky throw some money around and try to win it all in 2007, before the core of the team disappears. But if that doesn't happen, I'd rather he get peak value for those players.

Yes. My feelings to a tee.

Johnny Footstool
11-29-2006, 10:34 AM
Trading Dunn, Freel, and Griffey only makes sense if you're blowing up the roster, because their offense (mostly Dunn's and Freel's) can't be easily replaced. Trading those three and keeping Arroyo and Harang would leave the 2007 and 2008 Reds struggling for those 82 wins I was talking about. And would Harang and Arroyo be willing to sign long-term deals on a .500 team when they can break the bank and pitch for the Red Sox or Yankees?

It's not that I wouldn't offer Arroyo and Harang long-term deals -- I just think they're planning on going the free agent route (Arroyo especially). That means the clock is ticking.

Spring~Fields
11-29-2006, 12:50 PM
I have a few concerns with the burn it down idea. I just posted something simular in a different thread so here's the short version.

1) Do we trust our current scouting staff to find the "almost ready" prospects we'll need to count on to be successfull down the road? Wayne's only had since the end of last season to deal with neglect dating back to the mid 1980's.



I would just have to trust WK and his support staff to make the right decisions, either way "successful down the road" is going to be down the road and in the meantime they will be trying to eek out those "82 wins" as JF has afore mentioned. It is that same staff that will have to be trusted to advise him in the present on the decisions that he makes. One of the pluses on WK's resume was that he had prior scouting experience etc that implied that he would be good at evaluating players.

You mention the barriers and challenges that WK has to deal with, limited revenues that lead to payroll budgeting, "neglect dating back" for a significant time that henders his player resources.

Of course he might have some finds as he did last year in the coming months.

I just thought that JF had laid it out very clear and conscise without skipping other realities.

mth123
11-29-2006, 07:37 PM
That substitution of spending available funds to secure the pitchers when they cost so much in today’s market seems to have a lot of merit. That day is coming and the Harang and Arroyo that we witnessed last year would be very difficult to replace realistically with today's prices for reliable pitchers. Of course I don't know what their "intent" might be, and when you say "lock-up" do you mean contracts longer than three years?

I guess I'd try to get 4 years. The reds will need these guys to be competitive after the top minor leaguers arrive. We can't honestly expect much from them until 2009. Maybe by then a channce to really compete could make a change. Right now the Reds don't have enough and need to add to what they have. Going out and signing a pitcher for 10+ million per year now seems counterproductive unless these guys are kept around too. I suppose its possible to bring one in now, sign say Harang and wait another year on Arroyo. A large part of his value is his cheap contract. Signing him now would flush that. I think the Reds can do alot if some dead wood is moved like Lohse and Cormier. Next year the Larue residual and Milton money will be available and even lesser guys like Hat will be off the books. If they have money now maybe its one pitcher and a mid-level short contract for a bat now in conjunction with Harang signing. Next year use the Milton and Larue money on Arroyo or a replacement and to fund some raises and to extend Dunn. By then Bailey and Votto should be helping. The following Year Griffey's money will be available.

2009 looks like the time to really compete with an offensive core of Dunn, EE, Votto and Bruce, a defensive core of Phillips, Gonzalez and Deno and a pitching core of Harang, Arroyo and Bailey. With the way the money is shaking out, they could still add another starter IMO. Just don't waste it on another Milton or by keeping guys like Lohse for $5 or $6 Million.

Spring~Fields
11-29-2006, 08:48 PM
I guess I'd try to get 4 years. The reds will need these guys to be competitive after the top minor leaguers arrive. We can't honestly expect much from them until 2009. Maybe by then a channce to really compete could make a change. Right now the Reds don't have enough and need to add to what they have. Going out and signing a pitcher for 10+ million per year now seems counterproductive unless these guys are kept around too. I suppose its possible to bring one in now, sign say Harang and wait another year on Arroyo. A large part of his value is his cheap contract. Signing him now would flush that. I think the Reds can do alot if some dead wood is moved like Lohse and Cormier. Next year the Larue residual and Milton money will be available and even lesser guys like Hat will be off the books. If they have money now maybe its one pitcher and a mid-level short contract for a bat now in conjunction with Harang signing. Next year use the Milton and Larue money on Arroyo or a replacement and to fund some raises and to extend Dunn. By then Bailey and Votto should be helping. The following Year Griffey's money will be available.

2009 looks like the time to really compete with an offensive core of Dunn, EE, Votto and Bruce, a defensive core of Phillips, Gonzalez and Deno and a pitching core of Harang, Arroyo and Bailey. With the way the money is shaking out, they could still add another starter IMO. Just don't waste it on another Milton or by keeping guys like Lohse for $5 or $6 Million.

There is flexibility in thinking it through as you have here, you make some very good points and instill some real possibilities to implement the options.