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View Full Version : There's got to be a trade



Kc61
11-29-2006, 10:50 PM
I just don't believe Krivsky will stand pat with Gonzo, Stanton and the backup catcher. There has to be more happening.

Falls City Beer
11-29-2006, 10:54 PM
I just don't believe Krivsky will stand pat with Gonzo, Stanton and the backup catcher. There has to be more happening.

Redsfest. Apparently Eddie Money won't be making it this year.

Joseph
11-29-2006, 11:10 PM
I can't decide where I sit on Krivsky right now. I don't like piling on, I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but all I know is it feels like there isn't a plan yet.

RedLegSuperStar
11-29-2006, 11:32 PM
I can't decide where I sit on Krivsky right now. I don't like piling on, I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but all I know is it feels like there isn't a plan yet.

I tend to be on the same side as you. Last year he had so many positives minus the Kearns/Lopez trade.. who knows though we did get the Nationals 5, 6, and 7th best prospects at the time... But this year its kind of hard to see the path this team is headed in. This team can't have 3 catchers again.. can it? This team can't have a closer by committee.. can it? This team can't rely on Arroyo and Harang again.. can they? This team has yet to upgrade the offense which has struggled since the loss of Kearns and Lopez... A lot of question marks still remain.

Personally I still think if you spend the money to get a #3 pitcher and sign Trot Nixon and C. Wilson this team can at least finish over .500 and sad but true that is a step in the right direction.

redsmetz
11-30-2006, 07:02 AM
I tend to be on the same side as you. Last year he had so many positives minus the Kearns/Lopez trade.. who knows though we did get the Nationals 5, 6, and 7th best prospects at the time... But this year its kind of hard to see the path this team is headed in. This team can't have 3 catchers again.. can it? This team can't have a closer by committee.. can it? This team can't rely on Arroyo and Harang again.. can they? This team has yet to upgrade the offense which has struggled since the loss of Kearns and Lopez... A lot of question marks still remain.

Personally I still think if you spend the money to get a #3 pitcher and sign Trot Nixon and C. Wilson this team can at least finish over .500 and sad but true that is a step in the right direction.

Even what you noted was a negative, in fact, had some upside to it. When the trade happened, WK stated he might have overpaid, but I think the book is still out on whether that is ultimately a negative or a positive (and I acknowledge it may well end up a neg). The Majewski fiasco aside, I think he and Bray could end up being decent pitchers for us, so we'll have to see there.

But you ask numerous questions and not rhetorically, I think. I've gone back and looked at WK's statement after signing Chad Moeller. Yes, he may well be considering a three catcher scenario, although some of have noted that Valentin may be relegated to the being primarily a pinch hitting. Contrary to what folks keep saying, carrying three catchers is neither unheard of nor is it necessarily rare. Just take a peak at Reds rosters down through the year and you'll see teams replete with more than two catchers.

Why can't we relay on Harrang and Arroyo next year. While I don't think you're inferring this, don't subscribe to the school of thought that all players deteriorate in their skills. Now, we definitely need a #3 pitcher and I think we can get by with some of the pitchers we currently have in the #4 and #5 hole.

Bullpen by committee? It's been done and it's been done successfully. We need to remember one bulldog of a closer wasn't always the norm. Heck, the save wasn't even a bona fide statistic until 25-30 years ago. Would it be good to have an actual closer? Most likely, yes, but we can manage without.

Krivsky has repeatedly stated he's nowhere near being done. Next week begins the Winter Meetings, let's see what happens there.

I think this team, even ultimately improved, has its work cut out for it. The Astros and the Cubbies have improved considerably and we know the Redbirds won't sit still. The Brewers proved they can be in a race too and I won't dismiss the Pirates as permanently anchored in the basement. The truth is win are in what could ostensibly be the best division in baseball and we need to improve. I think the Front Office shares that concern with the fan base around here.

mth123
11-30-2006, 07:51 AM
Gotta wonder if the Arbitration deadline is holding WK back. I am guessing that Richie and Weathers are offered Arb. If so, the Reds need to be in the right spot in case they accept.

The rumor has Aurilia signing a deal for $3 Million per year with SF after Arb day passes. I have to believe that he would get more than $3 Million in Arb after last year and what has happened with the market. The Reds just may see him accept and if so he would probably end-up the RH 1B as well as a back-up at 2B and 3B. I wonder if he could play OF? WK may be waiting to see what happens before doing something for the RH/Power bat we are looking for.

IMO the Reds would be better off if Aurilia turns them down, the Reds get draft picks and sign a Craig Wilson for the job as RH Bat with power. (And it would be even better if Mr. Wilson becomes the full-time 1B with Hat on the bench. That would also be the case with Aurilia if he returns IMO.)

Weathers is a similar situation but to a lesser degree. I personally see no upside in his return. He was ok last year but largely due to a very good BABIP more than great pitching IMO (see his walk rate and his HR rate). If he is back, it adds another pitcher whose proper role is the 6th or 7th inning to a bullpen already overloaded with them. Not sure what that would do to any attempt to improve the pen. It would probably end it. It could lead to a trade from the glut of similarly suited relievers on the roster right now. I'd prefer no Weathers, some picks and we move on from here.

The Reds need to be careful right now. They could get some picks by offering arb to some guys, but they need to be prepared for these guys to accept. If they do, the Roster suddenly becomes "full" (with less than optimal fits IMO)and the money will be gone. I suspect that Wk is waiting to see what happens here. It will be interesting to see who is offered arb and who isn't. I'd like to see the Reds get the picks, but I wouldn't chance arb unless I wanted the player. Maybe WK is holding a role open for Aurilia until he sees what happens.

redsmetz
11-30-2006, 08:31 AM
What becomes of players who were reinstated from the 60 day DL? I assume that step was taken to set rosters for the Rule V draft and as a way to require clubs to not hide a player on the long term DL to protect them. Once the Rule V draft is completed, can they return those players to the 60 day? If that's the case, we've got 2-3 players who will still be in rehabbing and recovery from injuries, surgeries, etc. that would free up roster space. I honestly don't know how that works. Right now, we've got one open roster spot. Of course, a trade could take care of that too.

schroomytunes
11-30-2006, 08:37 AM
I for one would rather have Aurilia as my regular 1st baseman, and haave Hatteberg spell him on occasion. I could then use Aurilia all over the infield if injuries arise, whereas a guy like Wilson could only be used as a 1b/rf. It gives us more flexability, and i would agree with the notion that I grant Aurilia arb., but not Weathers. As of right now I see our bullpen shaping up like this

6-7 inning guys:Majewski,Belisle,Coffey,Cormier,Claussen
8th inning(set-up) Bray
Closer-Stanton

GAC
11-30-2006, 09:08 AM
But Krivsky is not the only GM "sitting on his hands".

Good article from ESPN

The Big Empty

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2679907

The gnashing of teeth had barely stopped over Adam Eaton's new contract and the Yankees committing $26 million for the rights to another bottom-of-the-rotation starter, Japanese left-hander Kei Igawa.

Here comes another round of major league executives screaming that timeless question, "Are those guys on crack?"

But there's a reason so many marginal pitchers are commanding such respect. It's simple supply and demand.

Even after the Eaton and Igawa moves, and assuming Daisuke Matsuzaka and Igawa sign with the Red Sox and Yankees, respectively, there are still at least 30 holes remaining in big league rotations. Nine teams need more than one reasonably reliable starter, with the Texas Rangers and Washington Nationals somehow short three and four, respectively.

There are perhaps 11 attractive free-agent starters on the market, and that list includes three guys who are essentially unavailable to at least 25 teams (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Tom Glavine). No wonder the White Sox and Rockies wait patiently as the price for starters available in trades, such as Freddy Garcia, Javier Vazquez and Jason Jennings, soars.

Dontrelle Willis? Don't even ask.

For executives with teams finding themselves needing the most -- including the already very active Cubs, who still don't know whom they'll pitch after Carlos Zambrano and Rich Hill -- it's going to be a restless December.

--------------------------------------


And here is another interesting point....

How much are various agents (like Boras) involved in this current "stalemate", lack of pitcher signings?

Are they purposely paying most of their attention on getting fat contracts for players like Daisuke Matsuzaka and Igawa first, KNOWING that that will help inflate even more the contracts for these other FA pitchers, and set the standard?

Redsland
11-30-2006, 12:57 PM
I've gone back and looked at WK's statement after signing Chad Moeller. Yes, he may well be considering a three catcher scenario, although some of have noted that Valentin may be relegated to the being primarily a pinch hitting.
If so, it bears repeating that his three-year split as a pinch hitter reveals .193/.264/.337/.601 in 83 ABs. No doubles. No triples.

BRM
11-30-2006, 01:00 PM
Redsfest. Apparently Eddie Money won't be making it this year.

:laugh:

FCB, you never fail to get a chuckle out of me.

redsmetz
11-30-2006, 01:02 PM
If so, it bears repeating that his three-year split as a pinch hitter reveals .193/.264/.337/.601 in 83 ABs. No doubles. No triples.

I don't know how to go and pull his pinch hitting stats, so I can't refute this or even comment on it. I'm just saying that might be WK's intentions.

BRM
11-30-2006, 01:12 PM
Yes, he may well be considering a three catcher scenario, although some of have noted that Valentin may be relegated to the being primarily a pinch hitting.


I'd rather see Hatteberg become the primary pinch-hitter.

TeamSelig
11-30-2006, 01:55 PM
You'd rather have Valentin starting at 1B over Hatteberg?

Not me.

BRM
11-30-2006, 01:57 PM
You'd rather have Valentin starting at 1B over Hatteberg?

Not me.

Who said anything about Valentin starting at 1B? I'd like to see an upgrade at 1B, moving Hat to a backup/pinch-hitting role.

BoydsOfSummer
11-30-2006, 04:03 PM
Sign Craig Wilson--to catch.

vaticanplum
11-30-2006, 06:25 PM
Who said anything about Valentin starting at 1B? I'd like to see an upgrade at 1B, moving Hat to a backup/pinch-hitting role.

The calls for Hatteberg's head seemed to have snowballed throughout the offseason. We need another good power hitter and first base seems to be a logical place to put one. But removing Hatteberg for removal's sake doesn't make sense to me. He plays a very good first base and he also takes nice walks there from home plate constantly. Yes, he had an unusually good year last year, but his patience at the plate is not going away. It's exactly what he's known for.

To use him off the bench in favor of a stronger hitter is perfectly valid. But until we have one, I see no reason to move him.

BRM
11-30-2006, 06:30 PM
To use him off the bench in favor of a stronger hitter is perfectly valid. But until we have one, I see no reason to move him.

I agree. That's why I said I'd like to see an upgrade at 1B. I never said replace him with Valentin or some other weak stick in-house. It will require a trade most likely or a FA signing. I'd even be fine with a RH platoon partner at 1B to share time with Hat.

TeamSelig
11-30-2006, 07:50 PM
Oh, I thought you meant to have Javier start at 1B.

RedEye
11-30-2006, 08:10 PM
Even what you noted was a negative, in fact, had some upside to it. When the trade happened, WK stated he might have overpaid, but I think the book is still out on whether that is ultimately a negative or a positive (and I acknowledge it may well end up a neg). The Majewski fiasco aside, I think he and Bray could end up being decent pitchers for us, so we'll have to see there.


I realize that this point has been debated ad nauseum elsewhere, but every time it resurfaces it makes me angry, so I'll make my point again:

I don't think the book (or the jury for that matter) is still out on The Trade. The openly stated, supposedly defensible GOAL of The Trade was to improve the Reds team for a playoff run LAST SEASON. That didn't happen. In fact, it didn't come CLOSE to happening. In my opinion, the playoffs were the ONLY way such a crazy move could EVER be defended. Unfortunately, any playoff hopes the Reds had were decidedly NOT a result of The Trade. In fact, I think you can even argue that Wayne traded away two of the reasons we were in a playoff position in the first place. The Reds were in 'contention' in spite of The Trade, not because of it.

My main point is this: Kearns and Lopez could have and should have netted much more on the market! That's where The Trade hurts the most. We already know that Kearns was being discussed as part of a Jake Westbrook deal earlier in the season. Wily Mo Pena netted us a solid starter earlier in the season, too. It seems completely plausible that we could already have turned (or currently be turning) our former offensive surplus that solid #3 right now (John Patterson?) had we not been so ridiculously foolish last July.

People, we are all experiencing the side effects of The Trade right now, because the Reds don't have the trading chips they might have had without Wayne's Folly! It's like playing Monopoly and trading away two properties one that's not even worth that much. Sure, the one you got could end up being part of a Monopoly later in the game, but shouldn't you have been wiser with your resources?

So, to bring this rant around to comment on the original intention of this thread: I don't think the Reds have much that other teams would want, so I don't think we'll be landing a pitcher of note this off season. I think we'll land another Kyle Lohse at best. In fact, I'm starting to have my doubts as to whether WK even has a big plan going on here. He seems to be more of a tinkerer than a guy with a 'big vision'. Does he spend all of his hard-working hours (and he is reputed to spend many of them) pouring over his dusty notes about light-hitting catchers and middle infielders he might acquire?

I really hope Wayne does something to make me eat crow. If he does, I promise I'll post an equally positive diatribe singing his praises. Gotta go watch the Bengals now... :)

BRM
11-30-2006, 09:59 PM
Oh, I thought you meant to have Javier start at 1B.

I don't want Javier starting anywhere. ;)