Best Dunn Deal

[Krusty]

If you had to choose one of the trade proposals, which one would seem the best should the Reds deal Dunn:

[Red Leader]

Is this going to be a poll, or are we just supposed to make up a hypothetical trade that we'd like best?

If not a poll, I'd take Dunn to the Dodgers for Broxton, LaRoche, and Chin-Lung Hu.

[Krusty]

Is this going to be a poll, or are we just supposed to make up a hypothetical trade that we'd like best?

If not a poll, I'd take Dunn to the Dodgers for Broxton, LaRoche, and Chin-Lung Hu.

The way reports are coming out of Boston, Manny Ramirez could be wearing Dodger Blue in exchange for prospects.

[M2]

Where's the none of the above option?

[JaxRed]

Dodgers for Billingsley, Broxton and Kemp.

[redsmetz]

Where's the none of the above option?

Amen, brother!

[Red Leader]

I vote for none of the above in the poll.

[Krusty]

Dodgers for Billingsley, Broxton and Kemp.

I don't think the Dodgers would even part a package like that for Ramirez.

[RollyInRaleigh]

None of the above.

[M2]

Dodgers for Billingsley, Broxton and Kemp.

That's more like it. Not that it would/could happen, but I'd want something potentially huge for Dunn.

[Red Leader]

Is this going to be a poll, or are we just supposed to make up a hypothetical trade that we'd like best?

If not a poll, I'd take Dunn to the Dodgers for Broxton, LaRoche, and Chin-Lung Hu.

Come to think of it, I don't like this package either. Now that Gonzalez is signed we don't need Hu, who is good defensively, but not real strong with the bat. LaRoche is a 3B, who we obviously wouldn't need with EE around. Maybe if LaRoche moved to the OF he could help us, but in a deal for Dunn, I'd want sure things and not position change guys.

[smallbattle]

I don't know why, but I like that Monroe kid and I would take him everyday of the week.

[Krusty]

I vote for none of the above in the poll.

I forgot to add none of the above to the poll. Thanks to the guy who added that.

[Red Leader]

I don't know why, but I like that Monroe kid and I would take him everyday of the week.

I might take that DET offer if the pitching prospect was Humbero Sanchez.

Monroe, Rodney and Sanchez for Dunn. Hmmm..

[jojo]

Do the trade proposals have to be realistic?

[Krusty]

I might take that DET offer if the pitching prospect was Humbero Sanchez.

Monroe, Rodney and Sanchez for Dunn. Hmmm..

What if the Tigers added pitching prospect RHP Eulogio de la Cruz along with Monroe and Rodney?

[flyer85]

I don't know why, but I like that Monroe kid and I would take him everyday of the week..301OBP and .783OPS in 2006 just aren't very impressive and he will turn 30 this off-season. His career OPS is .771

[Red Leader]

What if the Tigers added pitching prospect RHP Eulogio de la Cruz along with Monroe and Rodney?

Well since the Tigers moved Sanchez in the Sheffield deal they can't really include him in a Dunn deal (without the yankees permission :) ).

de la Cruz is a relief prospect. A good one, but a relief prospect. I want a SP prospect on the same time line as Homer, or Bonderman, from DET

[jesusfan]

I would definitely take Monroe, Rodney, and a good prospect.... Monroe would slot into Left and play great defense, with a better avg. than Dunn, and some pop... Rodney would become our stopper and would be great for years to come....

[Red Leader]

I would definitely take Monroe, Rodney, and a good prospect.... Monroe would slot into Left and play great defense, with a better avg. than Dunn, and some pop... Rodney would become our stopper and would be great for years to come....

Monroe: .255/.301/.482/.783 in 2006
Dunn: .234/.365/.490/.855 in 2006

Better defense than Dunn? Yes. Better avg? Yes. Better player? Not so much. Giving up .64 pts in OBP hurts the offense.

Of course it can be argued that getting Rodney and a prospect along with Monroe could make the deal even, Monroe's 37/126 BB/K rate doesn't excite me much.

Having said that, it seems like a Wayne K move. Improve pitching, deepen the farm, and improve defense at the expense of your best offensive player who is thought to be overpaid.

[Highlifeman21]

Best deal is to keep Dunn.

[jesusfan]

If Dunn can return to his 04 form than Dunn would be Great for this Offense with a AVG. of .266, 46 HR, and 102 RBI with a .957 OPS....

[texasdave]

Dunn to Houston for Troy Patten, Hunter Pence and Jason Hirsch.

[jojo]

If Dunn can return to his 04 form than Dunn would be Great for this Offense with a AVG. of .266, 46 HR, and 102 RBI with a .957 OPS....


I think the sentiment in this post is why you'd reject a deal like the Detroit proposal.

IMHO, solid relief arms aren't that impossible to accumulate (see Seattle and Minnesota's pens from last season just as two prime examples). Also, relief pitching is pretty volatile so its risky to trade for one (also IMHO).

Now consider Monroe, the guy in that proposal who would make giving up Dunn feasible. Monroe doesn't hit for average or get on base and he plays defense in flashes ultimately being somewhere around average defensively. He has yet to be a bonified 2 win player offensively (this is despite 28 hrs last year) and basically we've seen his upside in '04. Dunn on the other hand in his worst season ('06) was still a 2 win player offensively and probably somewhere around a 1 win player when considering his defense. His upside could be as high as 5 wins offensively next season.

I don't have a clue whether Dunn will be a version of '06 or of '04 in 2007, but even if Dunn is closer to '06, Monroe has to have one of his better seasons to match Dunn. Adding a reliever in the deal isn't enough to make up for the lost potential upside. If you do trade Dunn it has to be for a package that doesn't decrease the RS side of the equation without significantly decreasing the RA side. Bad Dunn for Monroe is a guaranteed loss of production while the other parts of the equation don't do much for RA.

[Reds1]

I can't see trading Dunn until we get someone to replace him. If we trade him and then we get no offense this team might have some pitching albeit still not great we take a lot of runs away.

[Will M]

Ideally EE bats 3rd or 4th.
Dunn bats 5th.
Third stud hitter bats 3rd or 4th.

IMO we need another hitter in addition to keeping Dunn.

I am not a big Dunn fan but realistically how are the Reds going to score runs replacing Dunn with Craig Monroe or other genric outfielder.

[jojo]

Ideally EE bats 3rd or 4th.
Dunn bats 5th.
Third stud hitter bats 3rd or 4th.

IMO we need another hitter in addition to keeping Dunn.

I am not a big Dunn fan but realistically how are the Reds going to score runs replacing Dunn with Craig Monroe or other generic outfielder.

Its a really hard question to answer because I think you need a domino strategy and the realistic possibility of each domino falling is no certainty.

But here is a fairly simple hypothetical to at least illustrate how a GM might try to work out a scenario resulting in a better roster:

Domino #1: Dunn for N. Johnson. Johnson/Hatteberg (for Johnson's injury time) would basically replace Dunn's production-assuming '05-'06 averages. The pros and cons of this argument have been thoroughly discussed in another recent thread so i'd say right upfront that this is controversial and reasonable people may disagree. As the con side to this move would suggest, its possible Johnson doesn't maintain and Dunn returns to somewhere around '04-'05 averages in which case you lose something. But if Paterson was thrown into that deal as well, the risk is dramatically lowered because he upgrades the RA side (though Patterson wouldn't likely be thrown in unless you have pictures that Bowden really wants destroyed).

Domino #2: Get Emil Brown from KC to play left field. He's been rated as a +10 defender last season via PMR (probably high) and has VORPs of 21 and 26 the last two seasons. Considering his defense, he would be a legitimate 2-3 win guy that flies under most GM's radar-not the fan drawing name recognition or towering HRs of Dunn but a very useful bat who upgrades the outfield defense (i.e. helps the RA side of things). KC has been rumored to be considering getting rid of him to avoid giving him raises during his remaining arb eligible years. I don't know what it would take to get him, but its possible that E. Ramirez and the willingness to take Brown's contract could net the Reds their everyday replacement for Dunn in left.

Domino #3: Use the payroll that was saved by Dunn for Johnson in conjunction with the willingness to increase payroll to overpay Pettitte (the best available arm on the market not named Clemens or Daisuke) to play for just two more years (c'mon Andy you know you want to---BTW this has about NO chance to happen) to make the rotation stronger. Assuming Bailey shows up sometime in August of '07, the rotation could potentially be one of the best in the NL with a little luck on the back end.

Domino #4: Pretty much Denorfia/Freel in center and Griffey to right. Defensively this would be huge in center but really something similar should happen even if Dunn didn't get traded.

Domino #5: back up plan...go after good value/high reward (but maybe risky) guys like the cubbies' Angel Guzman. They seem to want old expensive arms rather than young unproven ones with huge potential upside. I'm not sure what it would take to get him but it wouldn't be a blockbuster (though it could be painful like a Votto or less painful like a useful bench/utility guy like B. Harris---I dunno). Anyway, thats the type of guy I'd have on my radar.

Anyway this is all pure rosterbation but it illustrates how you might approach the problem. Basically Johnson/Brown make up for Dunn on the RS side maybe even being an upgrade. Pettite and the improved defense help on the RA side. Overall, the roster would probably be better. The payroll would probably increase at least $10M and those are pretty big dominos.........

[Natty Redlocks]

Ideally EE bats 3rd or 4th.
Dunn bats 5th.
Third stud hitter bats 3rd or 4th.

IMO we need another hitter in addition to keeping Dunn.

I am not a big Dunn fan but realistically how are the Reds going to score runs replacing Dunn with Craig Monroe or other genric outfielder.

I'd feel a whole lot better about keeping Dunn if I had any confidence he'd be used correctly.

Dunn is not a typical RBI guy; lots of his value comes from his walks. Ideally, he'd bat either 2nd or 3rd. How come the Phillies can say they need someone to protect Ryan Howard but no one talks about protecting Dunn?

Freel/Denorfia
Dunn
EE
Griffey
Ross
Hatteberg/platoon righty
Phillips
Gonzalez

Craig Wilson would be ideal to platoon so he can play right when Jr. goes down.

Or get a RF who can bat fifth now (Freel for Mench?) and lead off with Phillips.