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edabbs44
12-01-2006, 06:51 PM
This trade still sickens me. And once they give Lohse millions in arbitration, it will look even worse. You don't just throw out pitchers with at least some sort of promise for million dollar major leaguers with ERAs in the 7s.

Steve Jordan from Oklahoma City asks:
Where is Zach Ward on this list? How is he behind JD Durbin? Did he slip as a prospect, or is Minnesota's system really this good? What kind of projections can you give us on Ward, where will he pan out?

A: John Manuel: He's probably in the top 30 but was not a factor for the top 10 for me. He's probably going to be a reliever, with his delivery and his stuff and his mentality. Then if he's a reliever, is he better than Eduardo Morlan, or Pat Neshek, or Jose Mijares, or Tim Lahey, or Yohan Pino, or . . . it's tough to project relievers. Ward would have been top 10 in the Reds system, and he's not really--in my mind--close to top 10 for the Twins. That says something about the Twins' system, but more about the Reds, IMO.

Rojo
12-01-2006, 07:09 PM
You read that his ceiling is as a reliever and it sickens you?

MrCinatit
12-01-2006, 07:14 PM
He's probably in the top 30...

Is this the top 30 in the Twins minor league system? Probably?
Yikes. That is more of a statement about the Reds farm system than it is about the talents of Ward.

edabbs44
12-01-2006, 07:20 PM
You read that his ceiling is as a reliever and it sickens you?

Hey, remember what Wayne said about the market for relievers last year?

Honestly though, he was a top 10 prospect in the Reds organization. How do you give up a top 10 guy for someone with a $5 million salary and a 7 ERA? That's straight from the Isaiah Thomas book, "Building a Dynasty".

dougdirt
12-01-2006, 08:01 PM
Well, does Wards 5.29 ERA in his time with the Twins have any barring on his Twins ranking? Does his 2.29 ERA with the Dragons have to do with his Reds ranking?

Jon Sickels has Ward rated as the #16 Twins prospect, and the Twins are his team.

Rojo
12-01-2006, 08:25 PM
Hey, remember what Wayne said about the market for relievers last year?

Honestly though, he was a top 10 prospect in the Reds organization. How do you give up a top 10 guy for someone with a $5 million salary and a 7 ERA? That's straight from the Isaiah Thomas book, "Building a Dynasty".

Because most times top 10 prospects aren't that good and Lohse was winning big league games by the time he was Ward's age.

edabbs44
12-01-2006, 08:36 PM
Because most times top 10 prospects aren't that good and Lohse was winning big league games by the time he was Ward's age.

Yep, and it's been all downhill from there. Lohse is going to command at least $4-5 million in arbitration this year. Sweet.

IslandRed
12-01-2006, 10:46 PM
Hey, remember what Wayne said about the market for relievers last year?

Honestly though, he was a top 10 prospect in the Reds organization. How do you give up a top 10 guy

It's not hard to give up a "top 10" guy if you think you only have five or six minor-leaguers with a real future and the player in question isn't one of them. Ten is just a number. The guy's real talent level is what matters, not how he compares to the rest of our dreck.

One of the skills a GM needs is to figure out, of his prospects, which ones are the crown jewels and which ones are the trading chips. Ward was a trading chip. You can make a good case that Lohse was the wrong fringe guy to swap him for, but a fringe major-leaguer is about what Ward was worth in a straight-up deal, IMO.

traderumor
12-02-2006, 12:20 AM
If we find another starter and Lohse is our #4 starter, we will have a pretty good rotation.

edabbs44
12-02-2006, 12:38 AM
If we find another starter and Lohse is our #4 starter, we will have a pretty good rotation.

If Lohse is the #4, that means the acquisition will be the #5 and worse than Lohse. Milton will be the #3. Not a good rotation at all.

LoganBuck
12-02-2006, 01:28 AM
The number three won't be Milton. I don't think Bob C. will allow it. More likely holding the number five until Bailey gets there. I can honestly see them eating Milton's salary if he sucks it up through April.

lollipopcurve
12-02-2006, 08:28 AM
Lohse is going to command at least $4-5 million in arbitration this year. Sweet.

These days... so what? I don't understand the anitpathy towards Lohse. He's got a good arm, has never been hurt, is relatively young and will be pitching for a big contract this year. I like him slotted towards the back of the rotation. Ward? Funky mechanics, some history of arm fatigue -- he's likely a RH middle reliever at the major league level, if he gets there at all.

Doc. Scott
12-04-2006, 05:49 PM
This trade still sickens me. And once they give Lohse millions in arbitration, it will look even worse. You don't just throw out pitchers with at least some sort of promise for million dollar major leaguers with ERAs in the 7s.

Steve Jordan from Oklahoma City asks:
Where is Zach Ward on this list? How is he behind JD Durbin? Did he slip as a prospect, or is Minnesota's system really this good? What kind of projections can you give us on Ward, where will he pan out?

A: John Manuel: He's probably in the top 30 but was not a factor for the top 10 for me. He's probably going to be a reliever, with his delivery and his stuff and his mentality. Then if he's a reliever, is he better than Eduardo Morlan, or Pat Neshek, or Jose Mijares, or Tim Lahey, or Yohan Pino, or . . . it's tough to project relievers. Ward would have been top 10 in the Reds system, and he's not really--in my mind--close to top 10 for the Twins. That says something about the Twins' system, but more about the Reds, IMO.

The chances that Ward-for-Lohse becomes the Reds' version of Kazmir-for-Zambrano is pretty darn remote. I'd say you're exaggerating quite a bit.

As great as Ward pitched at Dayton, he was at least a year too old for Low-A ball. In addition, he pitched poorly from the minute he joined the Twins. I'd wondered before the trade was made why in the world Ward wasn't promoted to Sarasota after a month or two. As it turns out, the decision to deal him for someone had probably already been made at that point and it made Zach look better to have better numbers.

Good trading involves playing the percentages sometimes and taking the risk sometimes. With this deal, as ugly as the pitchers' lines looked the day it was consummated, I think this was just one of those instances where Krivsky decided to play it safe. As long as he's not doing that as a rule, I'm okay with it.

edabbs44
12-04-2006, 10:13 PM
The chances that Ward-for-Lohse becomes the Reds' version of Kazmir-for-Zambrano is pretty darn remote. I'd say you're exaggerating quite a bit.

As great as Ward pitched at Dayton, he was at least a year too old for Low-A ball. In addition, he pitched poorly from the minute he joined the Twins. I'd wondered before the trade was made why in the world Ward wasn't promoted to Sarasota after a month or two. As it turns out, the decision to deal him for someone had probably already been made at that point and it made Zach look better to have better numbers.

Good trading involves playing the percentages sometimes and taking the risk sometimes. With this deal, as ugly as the pitchers' lines looked the day it was consummated, I think this was just one of those instances where Krivsky decided to play it safe. As long as he's not doing that as a rule, I'm okay with it.

I don't know...Ward may have hit the wall in his first full pro season. He was over 100 innings with Dayton and was under 100 in 2005 in college. This year will tell a lot about this deal. I'm still not happy with how content Wayne is with Lohse in the rotation.

cincyinco
12-05-2006, 12:56 AM
Lohse is a live arm with middle rotation potential. He's been inconsistent, to say the least - but whats the big deal in giving up a guy most peg as a pen arm if he reaches his ceiling?

The fact that he would be one of our top 10 prospects is merely a reflection on our poor farm system. Not that Ward is an out of this world prospect.

Ward had nice numbers, but IMO these are numbers he should have been putting up at Low A ball all along. He did just what he should have. Its quite possible, IMO, that Krivsky sold a relief pitcher while his value was high, to get a starting pitcher at the ML level.

Now Ward may exceed all expectations in the long run, and it could turn out this was a bad trade. But its an acceptable risk IMO, and I think its a solid move from Krivsky - especially when we need so much help at the upper levels of our franchise.

camisadelgolf
12-06-2006, 04:05 PM
Personally, I'm more angry about the Juan Castro trade (and I love Juan Castro, unlike the rest of Redszone). To get him, the Reds traded Brandon Roberts, who turned 22 just last month. In two minor league seasons, he has hit .301 with an OBP of .362 over 806 at-bats. On top of that, he's stolen 82 bases.

Doc. Scott
12-07-2006, 03:28 PM
Personally, I'm more angry about the Juan Castro trade (and I love Juan Castro, unlike the rest of Redszone). To get him, the Reds traded Brandon Roberts, who turned 22 just last month. In two minor league seasons, he has hit .301 with an OBP of .362 over 806 at-bats. On top of that, he's stolen 82 bases.

Roberts is sort of the position-player version of Ward. A couple of strong aspects, but probably ultimately of limited upside- maybe Orlando Palmiero or something. Unless he develops some power (unlikely but possible), in which case one might want to watch out.

Of course, Castro has upside like a straight horizontal line, which is what makes this trade slightly more possibly ugly three or five years from now.

Just my opinion. Not authoritative, despite the tone. :)

camisadelgolf
12-07-2006, 03:50 PM
I agree, but I also think he could potentially be a Brady Clark with better speed or Scott Podsednik with better contact (okay, that's possibly a big stretch), and I just felt that the Reds could've had Castro for less.

Doc. Scott
12-07-2006, 03:54 PM
I agree, but I also think he could potentially be a Brady Clark with better speed or Scott Podsednik with better contact (okay, that's possibly a big stretch), and I just felt that the Reds could've had Castro for less.

Podsednik is a decent comp. Willy Taveras is another. Of course, Roberts could take the big step towards adding walks and homers to his game. But the chances are less because you're talking about a college player who's already 23, not a high school player who isn't done growing.

camisadelgolf
12-07-2006, 04:06 PM
Once again, I agree. And FWIW, he was 22 in high A-ball, and my guess is that he'll be in AA-ball at age 23, which isn't too bad. FWIW, Podsednik (who came out of high school) didn't advance beyond AA-ball until age 25. Based on only numbers, Roberts looks to be far ahead of Podsednik.

TOBTTReds
12-07-2006, 11:14 PM
I'd be willing to say Ward never makes an impact in Major League Baseball.

Doc. Scott
12-27-2006, 03:33 PM
Once again, I agree. And FWIW, he was 22 in high A-ball, and my guess is that he'll be in AA-ball at age 23, which isn't too bad. FWIW, Podsednik (who came out of high school) didn't advance beyond AA-ball until age 25. Based on only numbers, Roberts looks to be far ahead of Podsednik.

Fair, but do you know how many Podsednalikes don't become Scott Podsednik (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Scott-Podsednik.shtml) or don't get the chance to? Zillions. For the record (you probably know this already), Podsednik was plucked off waivers in October 2002 for nothing and dropped into a Milwaukee outfield that had very little talent at the time. Before that Podsednik was so highly valued that Texas let him leave as a six-year free agent after the 2000 season.

As a side note, it still amazes me that the Brewers were then able to benefit from a similar stroke of astuteness/luck with Brady Clark the same year (2003).

---
Roberts and Javon Moran are pretty close to the same player. Moran has consistently hit for higher averages and was a level ahead (but was also a year older).

I'll be interested to see how Brandon handles AA and Javon AAA in this coming season. For both players, 2007 will be a good indicator of each's major-league prospects.

Just trying to put it all in perspective as we try to keep track of all the talent entering and exiting the organization.

Doc. Scott
12-27-2006, 03:46 PM
I'd be willing to say Ward never makes an impact in Major League Baseball.

Not trying to give you (or Zach Ward, who has chances no worse than that of thousands of other pro ballplayers) crap specifically, but this is a gimme bet of the sort that anyone would spring for given percentage odds.

Speaking for myself, what's more interesting is trying to figure out who does make it- as well as when, where, how, and why.