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HotCorner
12-04-2006, 12:52 PM
if the Reds' offered Adam Dunn to Texas as the centerpiece of a deal for Mark Texieria? Votto? Bailey? Cueto? Bruce? Freel?

Just curious to see others thoughts.

Handofdeath
12-04-2006, 12:58 PM
if the Reds' offered Adam Dunn to Texas as the centerpiece of a deal for Mark Texieria? Votto? Bailey? Cueto? Bruce? Freel?

Just curious to see others thoughts.

The Rangers would want Dunn and Bailey. If I'm either team I take that deal.

Redsnake
12-04-2006, 01:06 PM
I would offer our Votto(#1 prospect or #2 whichever site you visit), Cuerto (top 10 prospect) and Dunn.

That should be enough for Teixeria IMO.

lollipopcurve
12-04-2006, 01:07 PM
Tex is a Boras client and is a FA after 07. Don't want him.

Johnny Footstool
12-04-2006, 01:08 PM
The Rangers would want Dunn and Bailey. If I'm either team I take that deal.

Teixeira is a free agent after 2007, so no, I wouldn't do that deal.

StantontheRed
12-04-2006, 01:24 PM
I would offer Dunn,Pelland, and Cueto.As long as Cincy had a week or so to work out a long term deal with Teixeira, now not next year.

Z-Fly
12-04-2006, 01:34 PM
The Rangers would want Dunn and Bailey. If I'm either team I take that deal.

Really? I would consider Bailey " the franchise". He will likely be a stud pitcher for some time. Those are hard to come by these days.

Why would you trade him and a very good hitter for a 1st basemen? Even if he is one of the top hitters in the game.

flyer85
12-04-2006, 01:40 PM
if the Reds trade Dunn they had better be going for pitchers and OFs.

Of course I dont know why the Reds would want Texieria, he is on a big downward trend. His OPS dropped 70 points last season, he's probably already peaked and had his best season.

edabbs44
12-04-2006, 01:45 PM
if the Reds trade Dunn they had better be going for pitchers and OFs.

Of course I dont know why the Reds would want Texieria, he is on a big downward trend. His OPS dropped 70 points last season, he's probably already peaked and had his best season.

You can say the same about Adam.

flyer85
12-04-2006, 01:47 PM
You can say the same about Adam.duh

dunner13
12-04-2006, 02:02 PM
It doesnt make sense to me why the rangers would want to trade texeria for dunn, considering that texeria is probably considered a better player at the moment. Seems to me that if they were going to trade him it would be for pitching.

flyer85
12-04-2006, 02:15 PM
It doesnt make sense to me why the rangers would want to trade texeria for dunnthere are reasons, although not necessarily related to on field performance.

Handofdeath
12-04-2006, 02:48 PM
Really? I would consider Bailey " the franchise". He will likely be a stud pitcher for some time. Those are hard to come by these days.

Why would you trade him and a very good hitter for a 1st basemen? Even if he is one of the top hitters in the game.

I consider no player "the franchise" until he's actually played for that franchise and has done very well. It has been repeated on this board before. For all his potential, Homer Bailey has never pitched above AA. Not one pitch has been thrown even in AAA. He is a "prospect." One of the better ones but still just a prospect. There is a list a mile long of pitchers who were supposed to be studs in the Bigs and who didn't fufill the potential.

Having said that, trading him and Dunn, whose pros and cons have been discussed ad nauseum on this board, for Tex would make sense for both. The Rangers get a great pitching prospect and they are always needing pitching. They also get a Texas native who in that park has the potential to hit many homers. In exchange the Reds would get ,as you put it, "one of the top hitters in the game." But you are shortchanging him by not mentioning that he is the best defensive 1B in the AL, if not MLB. You build your franchise around players like that.

jojo
12-04-2006, 02:50 PM
I have a very hard time thinking of any plausible scenario where trading Bailey would be in the Reds best interest at this point.....

flyer85
12-04-2006, 02:52 PM
I have a very hard time thinking of any plausible scenario where trading Bailey would be in the Reds best interest at this point.....trading a player who could be very good and very cheap for the forseaable future for someone very expensive and who would spend less than 2 years with the Reds would seem to be a losing proposition for a small market team.

redsmetz
12-04-2006, 03:11 PM
How come everytime we have these discussions, so many people are willing to give the store away? Maybe the question is "who else would the other team have to give us for Adam Dunn"? Too many folks are undervaluing our currently chief asset.

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 03:32 PM
trading a player who could be very good and very cheap for the forseaable future for someone very expensive and who would spend less than 2 years with the Reds would seem to be a losing proposition for a small market team.

Waiting for the .00000001% of moves which yield young pre-arb MLB-ready arms because you cling to the only minor league arm the organization has produced in 20 years is cowardly (and puts no faith in your farm's further ability to crank said arms out) and paralyzes the MLB team from getting better now and in the future (as MLB players almost always bring more in trade than prospects). The problem with your above thinking is that it places "value" before "talent." While "value" is important, it simply has to be the second consideration in the "talent/value" constellation.

Still and all, I wouldn't trade Bailey for anything but pitching: it would be nuts to trade him for Texeira (sic).

flyer85
12-04-2006, 04:03 PM
The Reds and the size of their bugdet make it unlikely they can compete if all of there key talent is paid market value. For a small market franchise to succeed they have to enjoy a number of players, who in their cheap years, provide expensive performance. That's just the way it is and trading away someone with cheap years for someone with expensive years is a losing propostion in the long term. The caveat being if said player being acquired would put them "over the top" in the short term. Unfornunately I don't really see that the Reds are in any kind of position to make a deal like that using a guy like Bailey as the bait.

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 04:11 PM
That's just the way it is .

I disagree. I think the Cards pay a very good many players close to their market value. They are in our market stratosphere.

Talent must come first. Paring away expensive guys can be done as you go along if you're at all persistent as a GM.

The way it is is that Bailey has about a 1% chance of even being a middle of the rotation starter at the MLB level. Those are awful odds that sink teams into a dreadful inertia. Teams must have two tracks going at once--heavy activity at the MLB level (including FA and contract extensions of market-value guys) AND a fertile farm, not just the farm.

jojo
12-04-2006, 04:14 PM
Just to chime in a bit.... without Bailey in the system, the Reds farm probably doesn't crack the top twenty....Bailey isn't the normal pitching prospect and the usual caveats about position players being less risk to develop really don't apply. Certainly its unwise to draft pitcher after pitcher hoping to get a Bailey because you're fighting the odds. But picking a Bailey and holding onto him is another story...

Team Clark
12-04-2006, 04:15 PM
I disagree. I think the Cards pay a very good many players close to their market value. They are in our market stratosphere.

Talent must come first. Paring away expensive guys can be done as you go along if you're at all persistent as a GM.

I agree. Walt Jocketty has done a very good job of finding ways to keep his club competitive. Mix in a little luck and you have a contender.

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 04:17 PM
Just to chime in a bit.... without Bailey in the system, the Reds farm probably doesn't crack the top twenty....Bailey isn't the normal pitching prospect and the usual caveats about position players being less risk to develop really don't apply. Certainly its unwise to draft pitcher after pitcher hoping to get a Bailey because you're fighting the odds. But picking a Bailey and holding onto him is another story...

Deify Bailey at your own risk. Just make a small listing of the failed can't miss arms of the last 3 or 4 seasons and you'll see. Bailey's not a dime-a-dozen, but he's close to it until he reaches age 23 or so without a labrum tear.

TeamSelig
12-04-2006, 04:24 PM
NO WAY do I trade Bailey + Dunn for Tex... He isn't that much of an upgrade over Dunn. Yu

RedLegSuperStar
12-04-2006, 04:27 PM
I'd like to get Hank Blalock

jojo
12-04-2006, 04:38 PM
Deify Bailey at your own risk. Just make a small listing of the failed can't miss arms of the last 3 or 4 seasons and you'll see. Bailey's not a dime-a-dozen, but he's close to it until he reaches age 23 or so without a labrum tear.

I didn't say he was bionic. ANYBODY can have a career threatening injury ANYTIME. I suggested given his potential (there isn't a team in the majors that wouldn't covet him), I have a very hard time thinking of any plausible scenario where trading Bailey would be in the Reds best interest at this point.....

Teams just don't trade pitching prospects in his class.......for a reason.

TeamSelig
12-04-2006, 04:43 PM
Reds won't trade Bailey.

His talent & potential is high enough to "save" our franchise if that makes any sense. If he pans out he will be an ace, something we haven't had in a very long time.

flyer85
12-04-2006, 05:05 PM
I disagree. I think the Cards pay a very good many players close to their market value. They are in our market stratosphere.
The Reds are much closer to Oakland and Minnesota in marketsize and payroll than they are to StL. That extra $20M+ makes a huge difference. Jocketty just does a great job of digging up undervalued free agents(Carpenter, Eckstein, Suppan, etc) but they are paying 4 players (Pujols, Rolen, Izzy, Edmonds) huge dollars which in the case of the Reds would eat up most of their payroll.

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 06:07 PM
Teams just don't trade pitching prospects in his class.......for a reason.

Give me a sense of his "class." Bear in mind he's 20 years old, not a physically mature 23. Plus he's not on the cusp of the majors, either. He's a hard throwing kid who's had limited innings at AA and a very spotty record with his control.

If I had to pick a prospect whose polish will wear off this year in the minors, it would be Bailey.

flyer85
12-04-2006, 06:18 PM
Bailey does has some things really working in his favor
1) he is only 20
2) his control got much better last year
3) the toughest jump in the minors is generally conisdered to be High A to AA which he passed with flying colors

If there is failure in his future it will likely be do to health and not because he isn't good enough and is waiting to be exposed.

While I don't believe he is ready for the majors there is a reason he is arguably the top pitching prospect in the minors, he has stuff the likes of which the Reds haven't seen in the last generation.

I'm more worried about him being overworked(he should not pitch over 180IP this season) than anything else. He is not a bird in the hand but with his stuff and his easy motion it would take a lot to pry him away.

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 06:20 PM
Bailey does has some things really working in his favor
1) he is only 20
2) his control got much better last year
3) the toughest jump in the minors is generally conisdered to be High A to AA which he passed with flying colors

If there is failure in his future it will likely be do to health and not because he isn't good enough and is waiting to be exposed.

While I don't believe he is ready for the majors there is a reason he is arguably the top pitching prospect in the minors, he has stuff the likes of which the Reds haven't seen in the last generation.

I'm more worried about him being overworked(he should not pitch over 180IP this season) than anything else. He is not a bird in the hand but with his stuff and his easy motion it would take a lot to pry him away.


Kerry Wood had an easy motion.

jojo
12-04-2006, 08:33 PM
Give me a sense of his "class." Bear in mind he's 20 years old, not a physically mature 23. Plus he's not on the cusp of the majors, either. He's a hard throwing kid who's had limited innings at AA and a very spotty record with his control.

If I had to pick a prospect whose polish will wear off this year in the minors, it would be Bailey.

Its a class defined by guys with two legitimate plus pitches including an easy 95 mph fastball (with movement through the zone) that can be gassed up to 98 and a legitimate 12/6 curveball which also bites through the zone. He also is developing change up. He's a power pitcher with a very high ceiling. He had a K/9 over 10 last season and a BB/9 a little over three. So while he's had some trouble throwing strikes in the past, at this point its more a matter of can he throw the curve for a strike consistently enough and is his change up developing. It should be noted that he can already effectively change speeds on his fastball. I don't know anyone implying he'll be an ace from spring training. But its very possible he'll be called up sometime in August of '07.

But ignore all of that (possibly because of hatred for all things O'Brien?) and consider this as a definition of the class he is in....every single team in the majors would be interested if Krivsky offered him up....

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 09:14 PM
Its a class defined by guys with two legitimate plus pitches including an easy 95 mph fastball (with movement through the zone) that can be gassed up to 98 and a legitimate 12/6 curveball which also bites through the zone. He also is developing change up. He's a power pitcher with a very high ceiling. He had a K/9 over 10 last season and a BB/9 a little over three. So while he's had some trouble throwing strikes in the past, at this point its more a matter of can he throw the curve for a strike consistently enough and is his change up developing. It should be noted that he can already effectively change speeds on his fastball. I don't know anyone implying he'll be an ace from spring training. But its very possible he'll be called up sometime in August of '07.

But ignore all of that (possibly because of hatred for all things O'Brien?) and consider this as a definition of the class he is in....every single team in the majors would be interested if Krivsky offered him up....


No. No hatred for all things O'Brien. I'm a bit more nuanced than that.

I happen to think Jay Bruce was the best pick since Dunn. And probably the top minor league outfielder.

Bailey hasn't run into his "injury" yet. You know, the injury that strikes all young hardthrowers? Now the question is: will it be elbow (recoverable) or will it be shoulder (still, even with improved methods of treatment, largely unrecoverable--and almost no one finds 98 MPH again).

jojo
12-04-2006, 09:33 PM
Bailey hasn't run into his "injury" yet.

I'm not too worried, I mean your injury fairy is still trying to track down felix, bonderman, verlander, and so on........ :cool:


Its an interesting philosophy though.... ignore a projected ceiling based upon talent because of insight gained through a personal relationship with a mythical creature.... :thumbup:

redssouth
12-04-2006, 09:39 PM
I think he is on the cusp of the majors, whether or not he is ready for it is an entirely different argument. I think you do make the trade last year for the right offer, but he has flashed the dominance that you cant acquire via trade. Where is the cutoff where he becomes untradeable? I understand FCB's reservations about the injury waiting to happen, and it is legit. But that is a career threating mistake by a GM to give up on a Homer Bailey and have it backfire.

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 09:43 PM
I'm not too worried, I mean your injury fairy is still trying to track down felix, bonderman, verlander, and so on........ :cool:


Its an interesting philosophy though.... ignore a projected ceiling based upon talent because of insight gained through a personal relationship with a mythical creature.... :thumbup:

Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Wade Miller, Jake Peavy (has a bum shoulder that will go out sooner than later), Ryan "the Little Unit" Anderson, Oliver Perez all want their "can't miss" cards back. And Felix (on your list) was rushed; the Mariners will pay for that.

jojo
12-04-2006, 09:59 PM
Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Wade Miller, Jake Peavy (has a bum shoulder that will go out sooner than later), Ryan "the Little Unit" Anderson, Oliver Perez all want their "can't miss" cards back. And Felix (on your list) was rushed; the Mariners will pay for that.

I'm not sure why the can't miss card keeps getting played. You take your most likely guy to succeed based upon talent and need within your organization and value him accordingly. Homer has all of the attributes of a potentially dominant TOR guy-a thing the Reds need. So you trade him because he might get hurt? And get this, the notion of trading Homer is being discussed by us at a time when Krivsky has been actively shopping Dunn for guys like Bedard and Bonderman (unsuccessfully obviously).

Concerning Felix, he was not rushed...in fact, he's still being babied.

Maybe it would be better to have a rotation of Franklins----if one of them would get hurt, who cares????? :cool:

Falls City Beer
12-04-2006, 10:05 PM
So you trade him because he might get hurt? :


Incidentally, I'm not dying to get rid of Bailey, but I'm also not starstruck by a 20 year old with control problems and 60 good innings on his resume.

Trading Bailey for certainties (and we can talk all day about what we consider to be a stable MLB pitcher) is not unintelligent. Oakland did it with Bonderman. The Padres did it with Perez. Both teams survived quite nicely, thank you.

It's just that it's the Reds, the team whose minor league pitching drought has been just about the worst in baseball history. If you're any other sensible team, Bailey's exciting, but not untouchable. Far from it.

You exploit your commodities--you don't deify them.

(And Felix was rushed. He came up as a 19 year old--under the best of circumstances, that's a rush job).