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View Full Version : Vernon Wells could be on the trading block after January 1



savafan
12-08-2006, 08:11 PM
Rotoworld:

The Blue Jays will consider trading Vernon Wells if they can't lock him up to a contract extension sometime around Jan. 1.
"We didn't discuss a drop-dead date on this, but that's probably a realistic timeframe," president Paul Godfrey said on Friday. "That's a very reasonable timeframe to find out if we can or if we can't." GM J.P. Ricciardi should feel pretty silly now saying he had no intention of giving Carlos Beltran-type money to Wells. The Jays would now be very fortunate to lock him up for anything close to $119 million over seven years. Wells should be in line for about $20 million per year as a free agent.

Falls City Beer
12-08-2006, 08:13 PM
Rotoworld:

The Blue Jays will consider trading Vernon Wells if they can't lock him up to a contract extension sometime around Jan. 1.
"We didn't discuss a drop-dead date on this, but that's probably a realistic timeframe," president Paul Godfrey said on Friday. "That's a very reasonable timeframe to find out if we can or if we can't." GM J.P. Ricciardi should feel pretty silly now saying he had no intention of giving Carlos Beltran-type money to Wells. The Jays would now be very fortunate to lock him up for anything close to $119 million over seven years. Wells should be in line for about $20 million per year as a free agent.

On my list of players to acquire this offseason, Vernon Wells is #0.

Patpacillosjock
12-08-2006, 08:19 PM
On my list of players to acquire this offseason, Vernon Wells is #0.

Why? I mean I can understand your statment if it will cost us 20 mil per season but I would def. give him 15 and get rid of Dunn for him. He's an elite Centerfielder.

Falls City Beer
12-08-2006, 08:24 PM
Why? I mean I can understand your statment if it will cost us 20 mil per season but I would def. give him 15 and get rid of Dunn for him. He's an elite Centerfielder.

It would be an utter waste of resources. Especially now that the team has decided to play the poormouth game. I can only assume that we're looking at 60 million dollar payroll.

Patpacillosjock
12-08-2006, 08:27 PM
It would be an utter waste of resources. Especially now that the team has decided to play the poormouth game. I can only assume that we're looking at 60 million dollar payroll.

Like I said, I understand your opinion (and lately I've shared all yoru opinions you've given) when it comes to the money. But I'd rather have him than Dunn at 15 mil any day.

reds44
12-08-2006, 08:31 PM
Why? I mean I can understand your statment if it will cost us 20 mil per season but I would def. give him 15 and get rid of Dunn for him. He's an elite Centerfielder.
Screw getting rid of Dunn. Trade Denorfia, Votto, and another prospect for him. Stick Junior in RF, and how about this lineup?

Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Edwin 3B
Vernon CF
Griffey RF
Ross C
Hatteberg 1B
Seabass SS

BAM

edabbs44
12-08-2006, 08:37 PM
Screw getting rid of Dunn. Trade Denorfia, Votto, and another prospect for him. Stick Junior in RF, and how about this lineup?

Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Edwin 3B
Vernon CF
Griffey RF
Ross C
Hatteberg 1B
Seabass SS

BAM

Still have Milton, Lohse and a stiff from Parts Unknown in the rotation.

reds44
12-08-2006, 08:37 PM
Still have Milton, Lohse and a stiff from Parts Unknown in the rotation.
It doesn't appear we are going to fix that anytime soon.

Might as well fix an offensive hole.

Falls City Beer
12-08-2006, 08:38 PM
Screw getting rid of Dunn. Trade Denorfia, Votto, and another prospect for him. Stick Junior in RF, and how about this lineup?

Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Edwin 3B
Vernon CF
Griffey RF
Ross C
Hatteberg 1B
Seabass SS

BAM

So you want to flush 20 million on a guy when the team has exactly zero pitching?

savafan
12-08-2006, 08:40 PM
So you want to flush 20 million on a guy when the team has exactly zero pitching?

Well, 2 guys who would be the staff ace on every other division rival isn't exactly zero pitching. :)

reds44
12-08-2006, 08:41 PM
So you want to flush 20 million on a guy when the team has exactly zero pitching?
Well there is Harang and Arroyo.
Then there is Homer.
There are only so many pen guys you can sign.

We were 20ish in hitting and pitching last year.

Vernon is a good hitter and a great defender.

Falls City Beer
12-08-2006, 08:42 PM
Well, 2 guys who would be the staff ace on every other division rival isn't exactly zero pitching. :)

Um. There are exactly three "ace" level pitchers in this division: Zambrano, Carpenter, and Oswalt.

Both Arroyo and Harang are clearly second-tier arms.

reds44
12-08-2006, 08:45 PM
Um. There are exactly three "ace" level pitchers in this division: Zambrano, Carpenter, and Oswalt.

Both Arroyo and Harang are clearly second-tier arms.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&subScope=pos&teamPosCode=all&statType=2&timeSubFrame=2006&sitSplit=&venueID=&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

1st and 3rd in IP.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/league_leaders.jsp?c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&sortByStat=ERA&baseballScope=NL&statType=2&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2006

4th and 11th in ERA.

Yep, clearly 2nd-tier arms.
:rolleyes:

savafan
12-08-2006, 08:47 PM
Um. There are exactly three "ace" level pitchers in this division: Zambrano, Carpenter, and Oswalt.

Both Arroyo and Harang are clearly second-tier arms.

Didn't Harang lead the league in wins and Ks?

reds44
12-08-2006, 08:49 PM
Didn't Harang lead the league in wins and Ks?
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/league_leaders.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=NL&statType=2&sortByStat=W&timeSubFrame3=&timeSubFrame=2006&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/league_leaders.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=NL&statType=2&sortByStat=SO&timeSubFrame3=&timeSubFrame=2006&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

Yep. Clearly a second-tier arm.

Always Red
12-08-2006, 08:51 PM
Um. There are exactly three "ace" level pitchers in this division: Zambrano, Carpenter, and Oswalt.

Both Arroyo and Harang are clearly second-tier arms.

OK, for their careers, I would agree you, FCB.

BUT, last year, they both nearly reached ace level. I'm a born skeptic with a slight optimistic streak, so I'm willing to wait until the ASG break to see if they still fit into that level, or are "second-tier," as you say.

dunner13
12-08-2006, 08:54 PM
To get wells would cost way to much. No way we get him without giving up bailey. Considering the red sox want 3 top prospects for rameriz you can figure the jays would want at least the same for wells. So Bailey, Bruce and Votto is to much to give up for me. If you want him wait til hes a free agent and then sign him.

edabbs44
12-08-2006, 08:55 PM
It doesn't appear we are going to fix that anytime soon.

Might as well fix an offensive hole.

Forget it. No use wasting $ on plugging a leak when you have three gaping holes in the rotation. Save the money and draft the best pitchers out there. This draft is key. If WK takes more position players, I might start the impeachment process. This team will not be in contention unless they add a ton of payroll. And since that definitely isn't happening, start building up.

OnBaseMachine
12-08-2006, 08:56 PM
Arroyo pitched more innings than Carpenter, and had an ERA and WHIP in the same vicinity as Carpenter, however, Arroyo doesn't pitch for the greatest franchise in sports history (Cards, of course), thus making him a second-tier pitcher.;)

Always Red
12-08-2006, 09:01 PM
To get wells would cost way to much. No way we get him without giving up bailey.

I'd give them Bailey (and then some) for Wells in a heartbeat. Bailey is a prospect and a pitcher (you never know with pitchers, Paul Wilson was once the greatest thing since sliced toast, and Chris Carpenter was just average until he came to the Cards).

Wells is the real deal.

If I'm WK and I can get him; I'd do it. Dunn and Bailey.

edabbs44
12-08-2006, 09:02 PM
Arroyo pitched more innings than Carpenter, and had an ERA and WHIP in the same vicinity as Carpenter, however, Arroyo doesn't pitch for the greatest franchise in sports history (Cards, of course), thus making him a second-tier pitcher.;)

That's a decent sized vicinity. :) If Arroyo does it again this year, then we can start saying stuff like that. But Carpenter has put together 3 straight very good years. Arroyo is on one.

Heath
12-08-2006, 09:04 PM
You can trade for Vernon Wells only if he gets 72 hours for an extention.

If not, might as well burn money in the fire.

jmac
12-08-2006, 10:41 PM
Um. There are exactly three "ace" level pitchers in this division: Zambrano, Carpenter, and Oswalt.

Both Arroyo and Harang are clearly second-tier arms.
second tier to me is guys like padilla...lilly etc.
while harang may not be on the "same level" ......i definitely would not call him second tier. His wins have increased and era has went down each season with reds.
the 3 guys you mentioned are aces but harang would be on same level as most of the other teams #1's.
Arroyo had a good year. do i expect another one just the same ? no
However i do think he can be a good #2. You may call him second tier but I think harang is gradually making the climb up there !

jmac
12-08-2006, 10:53 PM
Um. There are exactly three "ace" level pitchers in this division: Zambrano, Carpenter, and Oswalt.

Both Arroyo and Harang are clearly second-tier arms.
one more question on this comment.
Of all the teams in the central...when looking at that #2 starter then I would take harang and BA as a combination over zambrano/lilly.....oswalt/???....carpentar/??

that is as of "right now" !

Falls City Beer
12-08-2006, 11:03 PM
second tier to me is guys like padilla...lilly etc.
while harang may not be on the "same level" ......i definitely would not call him second tier. His wins have increased and era has went down each season with reds.
the 3 guys you mentioned are aces but harang would be on same level as most of the other teams #1's.
Arroyo had a good year. do i expect another one just the same ? no
However i do think he can be a good #2. You may call him second tier but I think harang is gradually making the climb up there !

Both are nice pitchers, but neither has had an OPSA under .700. That's my cutoff point for elite pitchers: guys who keep their OPSA consistently under .700 (with a .705 or so every now and again).

osuceltic
12-08-2006, 11:19 PM
It would be an utter waste of resources. Especially now that the team has decided to play the poormouth game. I can only assume that we're looking at 60 million dollar payroll.

You've been bashing them for not spending, but now you're saying they'd be stupid to pay big money for an elite player.

Let's just save everyone some time and make it very clear that if Krivsky does it, you hate it, and if Krivsky is thinking about it, you hate it. Unless Krivsky doesn't do it. Then you hate Krivsky because he should have done it.

We get it. You hate Wayne Krivsky. Trust me ... we all get it.

Falls City Beer
12-08-2006, 11:39 PM
You've been bashing them for not spending, but now you're saying they'd be stupid to pay big money for an elite player.

Let's just save everyone some time and make it very clear that if Krivsky does it, you hate it, and if Krivsky is thinking about it, you hate it. Unless Krivsky doesn't do it. Then you hate Krivsky because he should have done it.

We get it. You hate Wayne Krivsky. Trust me ... we all get it.

Reconcile this nonsense of yours with my praise for the Pena for Arroyo deal.

I like "smart." Some people are okay with "dumb." That ain't my lookout, pal.

Patpacillosjock
12-08-2006, 11:44 PM
Reconcile this nonsense of yours with my praise for the Pena for Arroyo deal.

I like "smart." Some people are okay with "dumb." That ain't my lookout, pal.

not a flame but why would it be dumb to get Vernon Wells in a trade and sign him to an extension for around 15 mil per season in today's market?

Falls City Beer
12-08-2006, 11:47 PM
not a flame but why would it be dumb to get Vernon Wells in a trade and sign him to an extension for around 15 mil per season in today's market?

Because on a limited budget (which Castellini is making perfectly clear this offseason) pretty much every cent should go to shoring up the pitching--both starters and bullpen. Why on earth would you tie up 18 million a year (that's what it would take) for one offensive player--who isn't Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, or Pujols? That's just a fundamentally stupid play for a team like the Reds.

Patpacillosjock
12-08-2006, 11:56 PM
Because on a limited budget (which Castellini is making perfectly clear this offseason) pretty much every cent should go to shoring up the pitching--both starters and bullpen. Why on earth would you tie up 18 million a year (that's what it would take) for one offensive player--who isn't Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, or Pujols? That's just a fundamentally stupid play for a team like the Reds.

I agree, right now, finanacially it would be dumb..but our budget was screwed up by WK the past 8 months when wasting a few million here, a few million there, etc instead of focusing on quality he got quantity.

Vernon Wells the past few seasons:

2002
.275 23 HR 100 RBI (159 games)

2003
.317 33 HR 117 RBI (161 games)

2004
.272 23 HR 67 RBI (134 games)

2005
.269 28 HR 97 RBI (156 games)

2006
.303 32 HR 106 RBI (154 games)

He's 28 years old and plays some stellar defense. But you're right, logically, we cant afford him and I blame mismanagement of the budget the past year by WK for that.

i

johngalt
12-09-2006, 12:26 AM
Both are nice pitchers, but neither has had an OPSA under .700. That's my cutoff point for elite pitchers: guys who keep their OPSA consistently under .700 (with a .705 or so every now and again).

Harang is 28 years old and over the past three seasons - his first three full MLB seasons - this is what has happened:

-Wins have increased each season
-Innings pitched have increased each season
-Strikeouts have increased each season
-K/BB has increased each season

-OPS against has decreased each season
-ERA has decreased each season

Actually, Harang's steady rise to becoming one of the better pitchers in the NL is somewhat more impressive when you consider his BABIP numbers over those three seasons - .297, .292 and .305. So you certainly can't say he's been lucky.

Is Harang a true across-the-board ace at this point? Maybe, maybe not. I can see arguments either way on that one. I still think he doesn't have quite enough truly dominant outings to be considered a real elite pitcher, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him take that next step in '07 or '08. I wouldn't put him the class with Carpenter yet. However, I also wouldn't trade him for anyone else at this point either.

Topcat
12-09-2006, 01:13 AM
Arroyo pitched more innings than Carpenter, and had an ERA and WHIP in the same vicinity as Carpenter, however, Arroyo doesn't pitch for the greatest franchise in sports history (Cards, of course), thus making him a second-tier pitcher.;)


He also doesn't pitch in Busch stadium for half his games. But don't stop him he is on a roll ;)

Topcat
12-09-2006, 01:18 AM
Because on a limited budget (which Castellini is making perfectly clear this offseason) pretty much every cent should go to shoring up the pitching--both starters and bullpen. Why on earth would you tie up 18 million a year (that's what it would take) for one offensive player--who isn't Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, or Pujols? That's just a fundamentally stupid play for a team like the Reds.

That is a fact I truly agree with. You are way better off acquiring players who have some upside with low based contracts, than urinating it away into the wind. After all it appears Texeria is being shopped and Texas wants pitching.

Jpup
12-09-2006, 01:53 AM
Um. There are exactly three "ace" level pitchers in this division: Zambrano, Carpenter, and Oswalt.

Both Arroyo and Harang are clearly second-tier arms.

What's second tier about Aaron Harang? He looked pretty good last year when he went heads up with Carpenter in St. Louis.

Highlifeman21
12-09-2006, 07:38 AM
Why? I mean I can understand your statment if it will cost us 20 mil per season but I would def. give him 15 and get rid of Dunn for him. He's an elite Centerfielder.

You don't get rid of Dunn for Wells. You keep Dunn and add Wells.

Find other resources to trade, like Ryan Freel, KGJ, Denorfia if need be, some of our prospects maybe even including Bailey. You definitely keep Dunn and add Wells. Swapping Dunn for Wells is a lateral move, at best.

Falls City Beer
12-09-2006, 09:01 AM
What's second tier about Aaron Harang? He looked pretty good last year when he went heads up with Carpenter in St. Louis.

Both Harang and Arroyo give up too many homers. I've said this about a thousand times.

KoryMac5
12-09-2006, 11:39 AM
Both Harang and Arroyo give up too many homers. I've said this about a thousand times.


I think I have argued this point about a thousand times Harang is obviously a different pitcher at home than he is on the road. He gave up 28 total homeruns last year 20 of them were at home the other 8 occurred on the road. His road ERA was 2.98. Arroyo is what he is a good live arm that gives up the home run ball evenly at home or on the road. 31 last year 16 at home and 15 on the road. His home ERA was however 2.60. Both of these guys have talent and I feel that on 15 or so mlb teams they would be number 1 guys.

jmac
12-09-2006, 11:57 AM
Both Harang and Arroyo give up too many homers. I've said this about a thousand times.

Mario Soto gave up too many homers also.
Except the fact that many came with bases empty thus resulting in his good ERA.
an ERA under 4 and 16 wins and only improving.
if he gives up 28 homers in 07 and wins 18 with ERA of 3.30, that will be fine with me.
Again I say...Carpentar and Oswalt are 2 of the "very top" tier. Most everyone else...Aron matches up very well with.

The_jbh
12-09-2006, 02:44 PM
I think our park is gonna make anyone give up a lot of home runs

Falls City Beer
12-09-2006, 02:50 PM
I think our park is gonna make anyone give up a lot of home runs

Perhaps. But consider that, last season, Oswalt surrendered 10 fewer homers than Harang and 13 fewer than Arroyo in a ballpark every bit as small as GAB.

That's really what I mean, when I distinguish between guys like Oswalt/Webb and Harang/Arroyo.

But, of course, my saying that is interpreted as slam on Harang and Arroyo. When, of course, it's not. It's called being objective.

blumj
12-09-2006, 03:18 PM
Perhaps. But consider that, last season, Oswalt surrendered 10 fewer homers than Harang and 13 fewer than Arroyo in a ballpark every bit as small as GAB.

That's really what I mean, when I distinguish between guys like Oswalt/Webb and Harang/Arroyo.

But, of course, my saying that is interpreted as slam on Harang and Arroyo. When, of course, it's not. It's called being objective.
If you don't mind, I'd really like to know all the starting pitchers in baseball that you consider elite level. I'm serious, because I'm trying to figure out if you consider any starters other than Oswalt, Zambrano, Carpenter, Webb, and Santana as truly elite level.

Falls City Beer
12-09-2006, 03:35 PM
If you don't mind, I'd really like to know all the starting pitchers in baseball that you consider elite level. I'm serious, because I'm trying to figure out if you consider any starters other than Oswalt, Zambrano, Carpenter, Webb, and Santana as truly elite level.

Liriano when healthy. If Papelbon is healthy, I'm sure he'll be one. Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson were two seasons ago. Roger Clemens. Barry Zito, when you consider his consistency. Smoltz. Peavy. John Lackey. Jason Schmidt. Hell, Derek Lowe had a better season than Harang.

Jpup
12-09-2006, 03:36 PM
I've said this about a thousand times.

What is that supposed to be mean? Do you think we should memorize your opinion?

reds44
12-09-2006, 03:38 PM
Both Harang and Arroyo give up too many homers. I've said this about a thousand times.
And homers are different then other runs given up how?

A run is a run is a run.

OnBaseMachine
12-09-2006, 03:43 PM
Hell, Derek Lowe had a better season than Harang.

Both Harang and Lowe posted a 1.27 WHIP; Lowe did manage to beat harang in ERA by a mere .13, however, Harang's BB/K rate was significantly better than Lowe's. Harang struckout nearly 100 more batters than Lowe and only walked one more. Also, you left out one little detail: Lowe pitched half his games in one of the best pitching parks in baseball. When you factor in the park comparison, Harang had a better season than Lowe.

Thome 25
12-09-2006, 05:47 PM
not a flame but why would it be dumb to get Vernon Wells in a trade and sign him to an extension for around 15 mil per season in today's market?

He's too inconsistent and has a career OBP of .336. Why give up talent just to buy high on someone?

Willy
12-09-2006, 06:58 PM
It's not going to happen, but let's just say the Reds would consider it.

I think we would be having the same debate that we did after the Reds aquired Griffey(similiar move IMO), You can't have that much(%) of your payroll going to one guy and expect to win. I don't think teams in the Reds market can ever win with one guy eating up that much of your payroll.

Speard the little wealth the Reds have around.

Patpacillosjock
12-09-2006, 10:42 PM
Vernon Wells the past few seasons:

2002
.275 23 HR 100 RBI (159 games)

2003
.317 33 HR 117 RBI (161 games)

2004
.272 23 HR 67 RBI (134 games)

2005
.269 28 HR 97 RBI (156 games)

2006
.303 32 HR 106 RBI (154 games)

He's 28 years old and plays some stellar defense. But you're right, logically, we cant afford him and I blame mismanagement of the budget the past year by WK for that.

i

Inconsistent? outside of 2004 when he was injured he's been pretty good so far in his career. 27 HRs and 100 RBI every year is pretty good and he plays a great centerfield.

I could care less about OBP as I do about RBI. I think its an overrated statistic that was inflated when Moneyball came out.

savafan
12-09-2006, 10:47 PM
I could care less about OBP as I do about RBI. I think its an overrated statistic that was inflated when Moneyball came out.

Did I read that right? :eek:

Patpacillosjock
12-09-2006, 10:49 PM
It's not going to happen, but let's just say the Reds would consider it.

I think we would be having the same debate that we did after the Reds aquired Griffey(similiar move IMO), You can't have that much(%) of your payroll going to one guy and expect to win. I don't think teams in the Reds market can ever win with one guy eating up that much of your payroll.

Speard the little wealth the Reds have around.

While I agree with you, I just simply think that these days its impossible to not spend above 80 million if you want to compete. we could do what the twins and A's do every year and let our minor leaguers come up every year, playing for the league minimum, and IF they produce, let it ride for two seasons, not win a world series, then lose them in FA or be forced to pay them with one of these contracts you are referring to.

especially now that we are in a division that is spending alot these days (Astros, Cubs, and Cards) and seemingly look to spend more every off season.

I love the thought of a bunch of a couple of 5-8 million dollar guys and the rest being around 2-4 million but that just isnt enough talent.

Jpup
12-10-2006, 05:35 AM
I could care less about OBP as I do about RBI. I think its an overrated statistic that was inflated when Moneyball came out.

so you are saying that getting on base is overrated? You sure can't knock anyone in if there isn't someone on base in front of you. wow.

Patpacillosjock
12-10-2006, 06:01 PM
so you are saying that getting on base is overrated? You sure can't knock anyone in if there isn't someone on base in front of you. wow.

you cant drive alot of people in when all you do is draw walks and slap infield singles around either.

savafan
12-10-2006, 06:02 PM
you cant drive alot of people in when all you do is draw walks and slap infield singles around either.

technically...if the bases are loaded, i.e. your teammates have good on base percentage, well...

jojo
12-10-2006, 06:28 PM
you cant drive alot of people in when all you do is draw walks and slap infield singles around either.

actually, yes you can....

Ltlabner
12-10-2006, 06:50 PM
I could care less about OBP as I do about RBI. I think its an overrated statistic that was inflated when Moneyball came out.

Whoop...whoop....battlestations...this is not a drill....:p: