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RedLegSuperStar
12-10-2006, 08:56 AM
Cincinnati.com / Cincinnati Enquirer:


Spending not the answer if done poorly; Cautious Krivsky may have done well
BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

Let's play a little Player A versus Player B.

Player A is a left fielder who hit .277, had a .351 on-base percentage, 46 home runs and 95 RBI. He made 11 errors and scored 119 runs.

Player B, also a left fielder, hit .234 but had a .365 on-base percentage, 40 home runs and 92 RBI. He made 13 errors and scored 99 runs.

Player A is Alfonso Soriano. He signed a couple of weeks ago with the Chicago Cubs for $136 million over eight years - or $17 million per. Player B is Adam Dunn. The Reds get him in 2007 for $10.5 million, not over eight years.

Example 2:

Player A is a leadoff man who hit .292 with a .330 on-base percentage and 58 stolen bases.

Player B is a leadoff man who hit .271 with a .363 on-base percentage and 37 stolen bases.

Player A is Juan Pierre. The Los Angeles Dodgers signed him up for $44 million for five years. Player B is Ryan Freel. He'll make $1.7 million with the Reds in '07.

Example 3:

Player A is a starting pitcher. He went 14-13 last season with a 4.20 ERA. He gave up 238 hits, struck out 178 and walked 70 in 214 1/3 innings.

Player B, also a starting pitcher, went 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA. He gave up 222 hits, struck out 184 and walked 64 in 240 2/3 innings.

Player A is Andy Pettitte, who signed with the New York Yankees for $16 million for '07. Player B is Bronson Arroyo, whom the Reds will pay $3.8 million next season.

Those numbers drive home a fundamental principle about the Reds: They aren't going to buy a championship in today's market.

In other words, find players in places other than free agency, or the streak of losing seasons will continue.

Of the three Reds mentioned above, Dunn is a drafted-and-developed player. Freel was a minor-league free agent. And Arroyo was obtained through trade.

Together they'll make $16 million in '07. And you can reasonably expect them to put up numbers not far from those of Soriano, Pierre and Pettitte, who will make a combined $41.8 million.

The spending that has gone on since the new collective bargaining agreement appears to be - to borrow Alan Greenspan's words - irrational exuberance.

The Reds are in the position of being in the same division with the team that is spending as irrationally as anyone, the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs have signed off on nearly $270 million in contracts - not counting a reported $20 million deal for pitcher Jason Marquis.

But if championships were for sale, the Yankees would have had a couple since 2000, rather than none.

fadetoblack2880
12-10-2006, 09:00 AM
I never thought of it that way. The Cubs are ignorant. They won't win unless that team plays as a team. There will be too many egos for them to play as a team. I really hate them...

RedLegSuperStar
12-10-2006, 09:07 AM
I never thought of it that way. The Cubs are ignorant. They won't win unless that team plays as a team. There will be too many egos for them to play as a team. I really hate them...

Word is their is strong possibility they will sign Cliff Floyd soon. So add another overpaid priced player to the list.

fadetoblack2880
12-10-2006, 09:54 AM
at least the yankees go after guys who are somewhat worth it. the cubs are just hemorrhaging money. i really hope to God that everything they are doing blows up in their faces. :angry:

wheels
12-10-2006, 09:59 AM
John Fay just compared hitters using on base percentage.

Was that a pig that just flew by my window?

oneupper
12-10-2006, 10:02 AM
Did Harang sign for 2007? I haven't read anything.

KoryMac5
12-10-2006, 10:23 AM
I never thought of it that way. The Cubs are ignorant. They won't win unless that team plays as a team. There will be too many egos for them to play as a team. I really hate them...

Remember it's team with a capital T

Edd Roush
12-10-2006, 10:26 AM
John Fay just compared hitters using on base percentage.

Was that a pig that just flew by my window?


I bet that he has been frequenting these boards recently and saw haw Daugherty was torn apart for comparing pitchers based upon W/L. I felt this particular article was worth my time, something I can't always say about Daugherty.

Strikes Out Looking
12-10-2006, 11:08 AM
Did Harang sign for 2007? I haven't read anything.

I think he is arbitration elgible, meaning he and the Reds probably won't have a deal anytime soon. However, he is under the Reds control in 07. Of course, if they'd given him a long term deal in October, they would have saved a lot of money.

Shaggy Sanchez
12-10-2006, 12:36 PM
I don't like the Cubs as much as the next guy but I think all the bashing of them on here is going to look bad once the season starts. I'm not going to say that I agree with how much money they have spent but I can't argue with some of the things they have done. At this point they have a much better offense than the Reds and even though I'm not crazy about either teams pitching staffs I would think the Cubs have better potential than the Reds.

BrooklynRedz
12-10-2006, 01:02 PM
Of course, if they'd given him a long term deal in October, they would have saved a lot of money.

And his agent most certainly advised him of this ... which is why he didn't sign a deal last October.

Unless of course you mean October 2005. But October 2006 would have been the absolute worst time for Harang to sign a contract.

Caveat Emperor
12-10-2006, 01:21 PM
John Fay just compared hitters using on base percentage.

Was that a pig that just flew by my window?

I admit, I teared up a little.

jimbo
12-10-2006, 01:33 PM
I don't like the Cubs as much as the next guy but I think all the bashing of them on here is going to look bad once the season starts. I'm not going to say that I agree with how much money they have spent but I can't argue with some of the things they have done. At this point they have a much better offense than the Reds and even though I'm not crazy about either teams pitching staffs I would think the Cubs have better potential than the Reds.

You may or may not be right as far as the upcoming season, but in a couple of seasons when half of these guys either are sucking it up or breaking down they are going to be scrambling trying to figure out how to get out of those contracts.

geniusMoment
12-10-2006, 02:22 PM
Soriano
DeRosa
Lee
Ramirez
Floyd (if they sign him)
Murton
Barrett


That's a damn good lineup. One that will kill Reds pitching starting on opening day.

marcshoe
12-10-2006, 02:25 PM
Spending not the answer if done poorly; Cautious Krivsky may have done well


Yesterday I heard someone on XM, I think it was Holden Kushner, say that the Royals had to overpay Gil Meche in order to gain credibility with their fans. What absolute, utter nonsense. Fay's on the right track here, and I've been wondering if the Reds (who I think have quite a few moves left in them before March) might come out of this looking smart.

TOBTTReds
12-10-2006, 02:37 PM
I never thought of it that way. The Cubs are ignorant. They won't win unless that team plays as a team. There will be too many egos for them to play as a team.

What sports is this again? Team chemistry is really not a factor in baseball. So many teams have hated each others guts and still won. An piece from a good baseball book, Mind Game:

"The 2004 Sox, it was said, had something their forebears did not: team chemistry – whatever that is. One thing is surely wasn’t a prerequisite for a winning team. Consider the 1986 Red Sox, remembered for their “25 player, 25 taxicabs” approach to team bonding. "

Will M
12-10-2006, 07:58 PM
I have found that a few of the well informed posters here know a LOT more than the local sports writers/radio hosts do about the Reds. Don't get too worked up about what the local sports journalists say.

Yachtzee
12-10-2006, 08:06 PM
Yesterday I heard someone on XM, I think it was Holden Kushner, say that the Royals had to overpay Gil Meche in order to gain credibility with their fans. What absolute, utter nonsense. Fay's on the right track here, and I've been wondering if the Reds (who I think have quite a few moves left in them before March) might come out of this looking smart.

Yeah, they used to say the same thing about the Bengals. "They have to go out and overpay for some quality free agents in order to gain credibility." Instead they gained their credibility by going out and winning.

Falls City Beer
12-10-2006, 08:42 PM
Yesterday I heard someone on XM, I think it was Holden Kushner, say that the Royals had to overpay Gil Meche in order to gain credibility with their fans. What absolute, utter nonsense. Fay's on the right track here, and I've been wondering if the Reds (who I think have quite a few moves left in them before March) might come out of this looking smart.

Maybe. But a buttload of teams didn't take this FA bait. So will THEY too look smart? What kind of advantage--really--are the Reds going to gain by having done nothing? They've still maxed out their payroll and they've still got a bad team.

But hey, at least we don't have contracts! Hey folks, come down to the park and see us not have contracts!

:party:

marcshoe
12-10-2006, 08:47 PM
Maybe. But a buttload of teams didn't take this FA bait. So will THEY too look smart? What kind of advantage--really--are the Reds going to gain by having done nothing? They've still maxed out their payroll and they've still got a bad team.

But hey, at least we don't have contracts! Hey folks, come down to the park and see us not have contracts!

:party:

It's far from certain who will and who will not look smart; that remains to be seen. It all depends on what is done between now and the start of the season.

One thing, though, is that the teams overpaying for Meche, Matthews, Pierre, likely will not end up looking smart. So it's not a matter that the Reds automatically look smart because of their inaction, but rather that their inaction means that they remain in the shrinking pool of teams who still have the potential to look smart.