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jmcclain19
12-12-2006, 03:53 AM
A little wrapup of Reds news circulating around the interweb.

Just an FYI first - John Sickles is supposed to debut his 2007 Reds Top Prospects list today so feel free to venture on over there to see what he has to say about the future of the Reds system.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

Ok - onto the news babble.

The LA Times still names the Reds as a potential Eric Gagne Suitor

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers12dec12,0,420754.story?track=mostviewed-homepage


Another Boras client, free-agent pitcher Eric Gagne, has yet to sign despite Boras saying last week that he expected the former Dodgers closer to come to an agreement by the end of the winter meetings, which ended Thursday. Although the Dodgers offer of a guaranteed $4 million with performance incentives that could bring the value to $10 million was not much lower than other offers Gagne has received, a Dodgers official said Boras has not been in contact with the team since the winter meetings. It is unclear whether the Dodgers offer is still on the table because they re-signed closer Takashi Saito.

The Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds have been mentioned as suitors for Gagne. The Red Sox have reportedly bowed out of negotiations for him.

The Fort Worth Star Telegram also repeated this rumor

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/baseball/16209438.htm

Former Reds MLB.com reporter Anthony Castrovince
recounts the Wayne Krivsky/Mark Loretta signing highjinx

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061210&content_id=1758949&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle


Here's the reality of the Meetings, from a reporter's standpoint: We spend the week standing in a hotel lobby, talking with other reporters, who have talked to other reporters about a rumor they heard from another reporter, who may or may not have talked to a source who told a reporter a rumor he heard from a reporter. As you can see, this is a fail-safe system.

Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky was talking to the Cincinnati reporters and asked if they had heard any news. He was then informed of a report on a widely read Web site that he had offered Mark Loretta a two-year, $6 million contract. "That is news," Krivsky said. "News to me."

The Reds may be one step closer to a new home in Sarasota

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061211/NEWS/612110314/1006/SPORTS


A proposed agreement, on which the city and county are poised to vote Wednesday, would spell out the responsibilities of both parties in building a planned $54 million facility near Ed Smith Stadium. The agreement includes securing a new 30-year lease with the Reds.

City and county officials have talked publicly in recent months about what the two governments could pitch in to build a new stadium.

Under the agreement, Sarasota County agrees to:

Use a portion of the county bed tax to help build the new stadium. The county voted to increase the bed tax from 3 to 4 percent in September.

Increase availability of other recreation facilities.

The city agrees to:

Sign a 30-year lease with the Reds. Sarasota City Manager Mike McNees said the lease should be signed by the end of this month.

Locate $10 million for the stadium.

Secure a $700,000 annual private investment by April 30.

Purchase and build parking.

Find money for all costs the county, Reds and state can't meet.

MLB.com reporter Mark Shelton passes along that Milton's staying, Bailey will be a starter & other pearls of wisdom in his mailbag

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061210&content_id=1758928&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin


Krivsky has made some very good moves, but is there any chance we will see Eric Milton traded to either Washington or San Diego, where the ball is more likely to stay in the ballpark?
-- Bobby S., Buffalo Grove, Ill.

It's highly unlikely that Milton is going anywhere. He is owed $9 million in the final year of his three-year contract and coming off a year in which he had surgery on both his troublesome left knee and left elbow.

Do you see the Reds signing a starting pitcher to be a good third guy behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo?
-- Jordan J., Parkersburg, W.Va.

Before the offseason really got going, I thought they might try for a No. 3 starter. Then we saw the prices that clubs were paying for free agents. It appears that the front office is satisfied with Harang, Arroyo, Kyle Lohse and Milton as the Nos. 1-4 starters. Unless Krivsky adds someone between now and camp opening, the fifth spot will up for grabs among Matt Belisle, Elizardo Ramirez, Phil Dumatrait and, of course, Bailey.

Jerry Narron is all hot & bothered about the potential of the Baby Reds in 2007

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061205&content_id=1751606&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin


"I just hope our guys understand, I think they do, it's all about preparing to win and not just trying to get ready for the season," Narron said. "I think having a chance to win last year, I think guys realize that probably better than ever before.

"I think that a lot of times guys try to get prepared just for the season, get themselves ready and [don't get] the team ready. [They don't understand] that what they're doing, they're doing for the team to win and not just for themselves to have successful seasons."

Former Reds 3rd Round pick Reggie Jefferson is now plying his trade as a baseball agent

http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061212/SPORTS/612120318


On Monday, he celebrated the signing of former Lincoln quarterback Gavin Dickey, who recently hired Jefferson as his agent.

The deal puts Dickey under the management of SFX Baseball, the same company that handled Jefferson's entire career. Jefferson, 38, joined the company as an agent in September and operates out of Tampa, where he's lived since retiring.

Dickey, who gave up football at the University of Florida earlier this year to concentrate on baseball, is Jefferson's second client in a fledgling career that he started in September. But Jefferson expects his venture into baseball business will flourish because of his experience in the game.

“It gives me an advantage because when I go in to talk to a kid, there has to be a relationship," he said. "That player knows what I'm going to tell him is going to help him."

Marc Lancaster notes that the Reds now have 24 suspense filled hours to tender contracts to Arb-eligible players David Ross, Kyle Lohse & Aaron Harang. I really wonder if they'll keep Harang.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/


We're 24 hours away from yet another MLB deadline, the date to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Easy call for the Reds, who will offer contracts to Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse and David Ross. Their only other season-ending arb-eligibles were Sun-Woo Kim and Grant Balfour, both of whom have already departed the organization.

So that part of the tender deadline isn't a big deal. Wayne Krivsky is more interested in who might be non-tendered elsewhere that might help. Sounds like the biggest name to get the ax is going to be Marcus Giles, who wouldn't be of much use to the Reds. Beyond him, there may be a few guys worth a look. We'll see by this time tomorrow.

UKFlounder
12-12-2006, 06:13 AM
Good stuff.

Thanks for putting that together

registerthis
12-12-2006, 09:25 AM
"I just hope our guys understand, I think they do, it's all about preparing to win and not just trying to get ready for the season," Narron said.

Perhaps someone could explain this to me, but what exactly does it mean to "prepare to win"? Does that mean that Reds players should be undertaking a different offseason regimen than they otherwise would? And would you ever hear a manager say "prepare to tread water" or "prepare to be unsuccessful"?

On another note, this tidbit


It appears that the front office is satisfied with Harang, Arroyo, Kyle Lohse and Milton as the Nos. 1-4 starters.

scares the crap outta me.

redsmetz
12-12-2006, 09:33 AM
Quote:

"I just hope our guys understand, I think they do, it's all about preparing to win and not just trying to get ready for the season," Narron said.

Perhaps someone could explain this to me, but what exactly does it mean to "prepare to win"? Does that mean that Reds players should be undertaking a different offseason regimen than they otherwise would? And would you ever hear a manager say "prepare to tread water" or "prepare to be unsuccessful"?

On another note, this tidbit

Quote:

It appears that the front office is satisfied with Harang, Arroyo, Kyle Lohse and Milton as the Nos. 1-4 starters.

scares the crap outta me.

That's a bit melodramatic, I think. At Redsfest, WK made clear that he was comfortable with both Lohse and Milton in the rotation. We've all acknowledged that we need one more decent pitcher below Harrang and Arroyo. Personally, I'm comfortable with Lohse and Milton (if healthy, that's a big IF) being the #4 and #5. I'd like to get a solid #3 from somewhere.

traderumor
12-12-2006, 09:47 AM
If Bailey has a good month and a half at Louisville, I think he will be up. I'd give about a 30% chance that he makes the club if he has a excellent spring.

registerthis
12-12-2006, 09:48 AM
I'd like to get a solid #3 from somewhere.

But that's just it. What scares me is going into the season with Milton and Lohse as #s 3 and 4, and Random Filler as the #5, which is what the quote says is the most likely scenario. i think we'd all love to see a solid #3 starter (or for the Reds to pursue a #1 or #2 and push Arroyo into the 3 slot), but it looks like that's not going to happen.

If that's the plan, then this team might as well have their firesale now, because after Arroyo, that's one sorry rotation. No team with Milton as their #3 can expect to be competitive.

Red Leader
12-12-2006, 09:58 AM
But that's just it. What scares me is going into the season with Milton and Lohse as #s 3 and 4, and Random Filler as the #5, which is what the quote says is the most likely scenario. i think we'd all love to see a solid #3 starter (or for the Reds to pursue a #1 or #2 and push Arroyo into the 3 slot), but it looks like that's not going to happen.

If that's the plan, then this team might as well have their firesale now, because after Arroyo, that's one sorry rotation. No team with Milton as their #3 can expect to be competitive.

I was just talking with Johnny Footstool about this the other day.

Look at the NL Central and the top 3 pitchers for each team in the NL Central. The Brewers are pretty comparable to the Reds with Sheets, Capuano, and David Bush, but I think Cincinnati falls either slightly ahead or even with them with Harang, Arroyo, and Milton (if healthy). Every one else in our division doesn't have as strong as a top 3. What that means basically, is that if we can generate some offense and play good defense, we can have a decent shot at winning a good number of games with the pitching the way it is now. Of course, it'd be nice to add a pitcher better than Milton, or another hitter to generate more offense and take some pressure off of Dunn, or in a perfect world, both, but I think we can be competitive in this weak division as we are now.

TRF
12-12-2006, 10:03 AM
I was just talking with Johnny Footstool about this the other day.

Look at the NL Central and the top 3 pitchers for each team in the NL Central. The Brewers are pretty comparable to the Reds with Sheets, Capuano, and David Bush, but I think Cincinnati falls either slightly ahead or even with them with Harang, Arroyo, and Milton (if healthy). Every one else in our division doesn't have as strong as a top 3. What that means basically, is that if we can generate some offense and play good defense, we can have a decent shot at winning a good number of games with the pitching the way it is now. Of course, it'd be nice to add a pitcher better than Milton, or another hitter to generate more offense and take some pressure off of Dunn, or in a perfect world, both, but I think we can be competitive in this weak division as we are now.

If you are going to use the caveat of "if healthy" then the Cubs top three trumps the Reds top three every time.

Zambrano, Prior, Wood/Lily/Hill/Marquis.

I loathe the "if healthy" argument.

Red Leader
12-12-2006, 10:09 AM
If you are going to use the caveat of "if healthy" then the Cubs top three trumps the Reds top three every time.

Zambrano, Prior, Wood/Lily/Hill/Marquis.

I loathe the "if healthy" argument.

I agree about the "if healthy" (even though I just used it :laugh: )

Anyway, Zambrano, Prior, Wood, Oswalt, Sheets are all very good pitchers. None of them are good bets to make 32-35 starts a year, so that "if healthy" argument applies to pretty much every team in our division.

My point is, if we go into the season with Harang, Arroyo, and Milton as our top 3, there's no point in thinking we're going to finish the season 30 games out of 1st. There's still hope. Especially if Bailey can contribute 150 IP or so to the rotation in '07.

westofyou
12-12-2006, 10:20 AM
Zambrano, Prior, Wood/Lily/Hill/Marquis

Wood's a relief pitcher now... Marquis?

He's roadkill.

OTOH who was the last good LH on the Cubs?

Ken Holzman, before that.... Hippo Vaughn.

LH's go to Wrigley to die.

Chip R
12-12-2006, 10:45 AM
Perhaps someone could explain this to me, but what exactly does it mean to "prepare to win"? Does that mean that Reds players should be undertaking a different offseason regimen than they otherwise would? And would you ever hear a manager say "prepare to tread water" or "prepare to be unsuccessful"?



I think what he means is for the Reds to go into the season not just looking to compete but to win. As much as we - and I'm one of the biggest offenders - give him crap about saying a player "knows how to win" there may be some truth in that. Some guys who have been in pennant races before are used to the pressure and either play up to or beyond their capacities. Others fail under that pressure. Of course, just because someone has pennant race experience, doesn't automatically mean they will play well in future races. What I believe he's trying to tell them is that they have been through a pennant race now and most of them didn't perform well during the last month. Now that they have a taste of it and experience, they should play better and Narron expects them to play better. Narron wants to get rid of the Danny Graves mentality of there not being any pressure to win here. Narron's telling these guys to expect to win. He isn't doing anything different than what Lou told the team in 1990. I'll kill Narron on a lot of things but this isn't one of them.

registerthis
12-12-2006, 10:48 AM
I was just talking with Johnny Footstool about this the other day.

Look at the NL Central and the top 3 pitchers for each team in the NL Central. The Brewers are pretty comparable to the Reds with Sheets, Capuano, and David Bush, but I think Cincinnati falls either slightly ahead or even with them with Harang, Arroyo, and Milton (if healthy). Every one else in our division doesn't have as strong as a top 3.

Milton had a "bounce back" year last year and still had an ERA over 5.00, and was on pace to surrender 38 HRs if he had pitched 200 innings. His 1.34 WHIP is passable, but by no means exemplary, and doesn't overcome his significant faults in other areas. And then there is, of course, the whole "health" issue that has been touched on.

Milton would be less dangerous pitching behind a third pitcher the caliber of Arroyo or Harang. But serving as the de facto #3, with God-knows-who pitching behind him is not a good situation. I'd say the Reds have as good a 1-2 punch as anyone in the division with Harang and Arroyo. Past that, though, they're decidedly mediocre. And our drop in offensive capability portends a long season in Cinci if Milton-Lohse-??? are our #'s 3-5.

registerthis
12-12-2006, 10:50 AM
I think what he means is for the Reds to go into the season not just looking to compete but to win. As much as we - and I'm one of the biggest offenders - give him crap about saying a player "knows how to win" there may be some truth in that. Some guys who have been in pennant races before are used to the pressure and either play up to or beyond their capacities. Others fail under that pressure. Of course, just because someone has pennant race experience, doesn't automatically mean they will play well in future races. What I believe he's trying to tell them is that they have been through a pennant race now and most of them didn't perform well during the last month. Now that they have a taste of it and experience, they should play better and Narron expects them to play better. Narron wants to get rid of the Danny Graves mentality of there not being any pressure to win here. Narron's telling these guys to expect to win. He isn't doing anything different than what Lou told the team in 1990. I'll kill Narron on a lot of things but this isn't one of them.

IMO, the best way for a team to "prepare to win" would be to find ways to significantly improve the team from the previous year. Anything else is just lip service.

BRM
12-12-2006, 10:53 AM
And our drop in offensive capability portends a long season in Cinci if Milton-Lohse-??? are our #'s 3-5.

You know, I'm trying really hard not be pessimistic about the 2007 season but this one sentence really sums up my fear. I'm not expecting much from the offense next season so I was hoping for real improvement in the pitching staff to help offset that. I'm just not seeing it. Milton-Lohse-Lizard/Belisle in the 3-5 is simply a bad scenario given the lack of runs this team is likely to score. There's still time left so I'm hoping Wayne pulls another rabbit out of his hat and improves the rotation and/or offense before April.

Falls City Beer
12-12-2006, 10:54 AM
I'm scared for the Reds' chances, but not because of the Cubs. That team is an unequivocal train wreck.

Chip R
12-12-2006, 10:55 AM
IMO, the best way for a team to "prepare to win" would be to find ways to significantly improve the team from the previous year. Anything else is just lip service.


Perhaps. But that isn't Narron's job.

westofyou
12-12-2006, 10:57 AM
IMO, the best way for a team to "prepare to win" would be to find ways to significantly improve the team from the previous year. Anything else is just lip service.

Being prepared to win means knowing what the situation call for, it's a metaphor for keeping your head in the game, not making mental errors, not making poor decisions, the hallmark of losing baseball.

You know, like the 21st century Reds play.

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 11:01 AM
They're so maddeningly, frustratingly close to contention.

If the Reds would just buck up and spend the necessary cash to bring in a #3 starter, they would have a decent shot at the wildcard. Add a power arm in the bullpen and a RH power bat, and suddenly they're a legitimate contender.

Without any of those pieces, this team can only scrap around .500 and hope to get lucky.

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 11:02 AM
Being prepared to win means knowing what the situation call for, it's a metaphor for keeping your head in the game, not making mental errors, not making poor decisions, the hallmark of losing baseball.

You know, like the 21st century Reds play.

If that's the case, then the front office needs to "be prepared to win" more than the players do.

registerthis
12-12-2006, 11:06 AM
If that's the case, then the front office needs to "be prepared to win" more than the players do.

Yes, Narron should be directing his comments towards Krivsky and Castellini.

traderumor
12-12-2006, 11:07 AM
They're so maddeningly, frustratingly close to contention.

If the Reds would just buck up and spend the necessary cash to bring in a #3 starter, they would have a decent shot at the wildcard. Add a power arm in the bullpen and a RH power bat, and suddenly they're a legitimate contender.

Without any of those pieces, this team can only scrap around .500 and hope to get lucky.Don't you think if it was as simple as "bucking up the cash," it'd be a done deal? Buck up the cash for the likes of Adam Eaton, Jason Marquis, Ted Lilly, who are some of the most expensive back of the rotation starters in the history of the game (assuming Marquis probably got a $30M contract, haven't seen the number yet for him)? I think a #3 is gonna be another Arroyo-type pickup. It would seem Freel, a reliever and a prospect might get us somewhere in the neighborhood.

corkedbat
12-12-2006, 11:10 AM
A look in to my crystal ball at Milton's 07 season - 15-18 starts - (5-6 are horrid - doesn't make it out of the 3rd inning) - 5-6 are run of the mill bad (makes it to the 5th inniing but still gives up 5 or six runs) - 5-6 are actually pretty good (3 runs or less through 5 or six innings, but he still loses a couple of them because Narron decides to show faith in him and lets him start the 7th). He misses a coup.e of starts in thi period due to a nebulous stiffneness.

Then in Late July/Early August he gets shelled in two or three straight starts and the Reds find he's been trying to Cowboy up and pitch through a problem with his knee. They shut him down for the season, thus blessedly ending the saga of Eric Milton and the Cincinnati Reds. Record: 21 Starts, 96 Innings, 4-12 Record, 5.46 ERA 116 Hits, 24 HRs

Trade him now and avoid the madeness. If you're gonna waste starts, at least waste them on Claussen, Ramierez, Belisle, Homer, anybody that might have a Reds future, but not on Milton!

westofyou
12-12-2006, 11:11 AM
Yes, Narron should be directing his comments towards Krivsky and Castellini.

Really?

The Reds play horrible defense and lose more then they win, 344 errors in the past 3 seasons tell me that "The Right Way" to play shouldn't be applied to the only the front office.

TRF
12-12-2006, 11:33 AM
Wood's a relief pitcher now... Marquis?

He's roadkill.

OTOH who was the last good LH on the Cubs?

Ken Holzman, before that.... Hippo Vaughn.

LH's go to Wrigley to die.

That still leaves Lily/Hill.

I'd take either one over Milton.

Point is, the Reds do not have the best 1-2-3. Not even if God regenerated Milton's knee.

registerthis
12-12-2006, 11:58 AM
Really?

The Reds play horrible defense and lose more then they win, 344 errors in the past 3 seasons tell me that "The Right Way" to play shouldn't be applied to the only the front office.

It's all well and good to tell his players that they need to be prepared to win. But, the surest sign of preparation to win comes from the front office, signing the right players and putting the right people in the right positions to increase the likelihood of success.

westofyou
12-12-2006, 12:15 PM
But, the surest sign of preparation to win comes from the front office, signing the right players and putting the right people in the right positions to increase the likelihood of success.

True, but that stuff doesn't happen in one season either, especially in a market as volatile as the current one.

Team Clark
12-12-2006, 12:53 PM
Perhaps someone could explain this to me, but what exactly does it mean to "prepare to win"? Does that mean that Reds players should be undertaking a different offseason regimen than they otherwise would? And would you ever hear a manager say "prepare to tread water" or "prepare to be unsuccessful"?

Actually T.J. Houshmanzadeh is a great example from another sport. He often talks about his off season workouts early in his career vs. when he decided to get "serious". There are guys who go through the motions or do not work out at all. Some guys just watch their kids, hunt, fish, sleep all winter. They grab a glove and a ball Jan 31 and start tossing. Those players are fading in this day and age but they still exist. Then there are the players who have a purpose and a want/willingness to get better and help the team "win".

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 01:00 PM
Don't you think if it was as simple as "bucking up the cash," it'd be a done deal?

It's as simple as "we don't want to spend the cash." Which is why they've slotted Milton and Lohse into the rotation and claimed everything is set.

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 01:02 PM
Really?

The Reds play horrible defense and lose more then they win, 344 errors in the past 3 seasons tell me that "The Right Way" to play shouldn't be applied to the only the front office.

Who has been on the mound in front of that horrible defense, though?

westofyou
12-12-2006, 01:30 PM
Who has been on the mound in front of that horrible defense, though?

Not much, but that doesn't excuse horrible defense and mental blunders does it?

And any assertion that Reds don't commit their fair share of those gaffes is just excuse making IMO.

traderumor
12-12-2006, 01:37 PM
There are guys who go through the motions or do not work out at all. Some guys just watch their kids, hunt, fish, sleep all winter. They grab a glove and a ball Jan 31 and start tossing. Those players are fading in this day and age but they still exist.Haynes, paging Mr. Haynes :evil:

traderumor
12-12-2006, 01:43 PM
It's as simple as "we don't want to spend the cash." Which is why they've slotted Milton and Lohse into the rotation and claimed everything is set.To which I say, whew! Having money and a need doesn't mean you have to pay the current market prices when you are not in dire straits. That is exactly what the Milton contract is, and we have all incessantly complained about it since. Sometimes you keep on renting until the price of houses come down.

dfs
12-12-2006, 02:19 PM
In 26 starts last year, Eric Milton had a quality start in 16 of them. He was legitimately injured in two of the others and there were several games where he was left in too long because Narron doesn't have a clue how to use his bullpen effectively.
Given the price tag and the cost of pitching, Milton is as good a risk as anybody the reds were likely to sign. He certainly deserves to start over Rameriz or Claussen. (and I like young pitchers)

We can go round and round about Lohse. Wayne thinks he's gonna be a starter. That pretty much ties up rotation slots 1-4. The reds also have Rameriz, Claussen and Belisle who are out of options. I believe Phil Dumatrait may be out of options AND it's entirely reasonable to expect that Homer Baily might be pitching down by the river by June.

Given the state of that roster and the cost of free agents, who should the reds have pursued in order to "find a legitmate #3 to go behind Aaron and Bronson?" Who would you give 12 million for a single season or 40 million over four years for?

You don't want to pay the money? Ok. Who's the unsigned minor leaguer that your willing to let go Michalak for 30 starts? After snubbing him down the stretch would the reds have been better served going after Jason Johnson and promising him a slot?

MikeS21
12-12-2006, 02:27 PM
It's as simple as "we don't want to spend the cash." Which is why they've slotted Milton and Lohse into the rotation and claimed everything is set.
Johnny, I'm not singling you out, because I have seen comments like this from dozens of posters over the last 2-3 weeks, but how is flushing more money down the toilet going to solve anything?

Who is this mythical pitcher out there waiting for Castelinni to open his checkbook? When I look at this free agent market, it stinks - pure and simple. Anyone signed will be nothing more than another Milton-ese contract for us to complain about for the next three years.

Barry Zito may be the ONLY prize in free agency this year. And I gotta admit, I'm not that sold on Barry Zito. Something about his stats just bothers me when I think about GABP.

RANDY IN INDY
12-12-2006, 02:50 PM
Johnny, I'm not singling you out, because I have seen comments like this from dozens of posters over the last 2-3 weeks, but how is flushing more money down the toilet going to solve anything?

Who is this mythical pitcher out there waiting for Castelinni to open his checkbook? When I look at this free agent market, it stinks - pure and simple. Anyone signed will be nothing more than another Milton-ese contract for us to complain about for the next three years.

Barry Zito may be the ONLY prize in free agency this year. And I gotta admit, I'm not that sold on Barry Zito. Something about his stats just bothers me when I think about GABP.

Me too, Mike. Good post.

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 02:51 PM
To which I say, whew! Having money and a need doesn't mean you have to pay the current market prices when you are not in dire straits. That is exactly what the Milton contract is, and we have all incessantly complained about it since. Sometimes you keep on renting until the price of houses come down.

That's my point. The Reds aren't in dire straits; they're right in the middle, a .500 ballclub. If they wanted to be better, they could take some chances, but instead they choose to use their money to maintain the status quo.

RANDY IN INDY
12-12-2006, 02:54 PM
I don't know if taking chances by giving guys that are not much better than what you have, big paydays, and tying up what money you have is really the answer.

dfs
12-12-2006, 02:55 PM
Miguel Batista for three years at 9 million per to Seattle.

If it's true, that may well be the best contract of the offseason.

Anybody want to stand up and say the reds should have "taken that chance" rather than give 2/5 of their starts to some combination of Lohse, Belisle, Claussen, Rameriz and Baily?

RFS62
12-12-2006, 02:57 PM
I don't know if taking chances by giving guys that are not much better than what you have, big paydays, and tying up what money you have is really the answer.


That's my feeling too.

TRF
12-12-2006, 02:58 PM
To which I say, whew! Having money and a need doesn't mean you have to pay the current market prices when you are not in dire straits. That is exactly what the Milton contract is, and we have all incessantly complained about it since. Sometimes you keep on renting until the price of houses come down.

Or maybe you redefine your buying criteria.

Analogies are fun.

Renting only works if the lease is short, and the amount doesn't exceed what you would pay when buying. In other words, renting Yan's and Franklin's is akin to renting a very used lawnmower. One with water in the gas tank and dull blades. It costs you more in the long run than purchasing a newer, better model. Heck you could even get the same year model if you researched it well enough to get the right one.

Cormier is really not a very good pitcher. he had a nice half season in Philly last year, but overall he's, well, just not very good. He's a lefty that doesn't get LH hitters out. And he's old.

This kind of renting I can do without. Or was this buying? either way it's money flushed down the toilet.

And the Reds seem hellbent on acquiring a lot of these pushing 40 relievers. Weathers I can deal with, he's the youngest. I'm not sure what to expect from Stanton... He's bounced around a lot the last 2-3 years. teams want him, then they are willing to part with him quick.

Isn't it time the Reds started shopping smarter? younger, cheaper, better.

RANDY IN INDY
12-12-2006, 03:08 PM
Isn't it time the Reds started shopping smarter? younger, cheaper, better.

Yes.

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 03:16 PM
Johnny, I'm not singling you out, because I have seen comments like this from dozens of posters over the last 2-3 weeks, but how is flushing more money down the toilet going to solve anything?

Who is this mythical pitcher out there waiting for Castelinni to open his checkbook? When I look at this free agent market, it stinks - pure and simple. Anyone signed will be nothing more than another Milton-ese contract for us to complain about for the next three years.

Barry Zito may be the ONLY prize in free agency this year. And I gotta admit, I'm not that sold on Barry Zito. Something about his stats just bothers me when I think about GABP.

Jason Schmidt. Ted Lilly. Vincente Padilla.

Any one of those three would have been an improvement on Milton/Lohse. Yes, they would have cost a lot. Tens of millions of dollars.

Tony Armas and even Mark Redman might be improvements. It will cost money to find out. Less than the others, but they will still be "overpaid" in today's market.

And that's not even addressing the holes in the bullpen, or the need for a RH power bat at 1B. Those will cost money as well.

But you know, who cares? Cash is replaceable; Castellini will make hundreds of millions of dollars when he decides to sell the team. If he committed to winning instead of maintaining the status quo, those extra millions wouldn't have mattered. There's obviously a revenue stream so rich that it turns all these contracts into play money -- ask the Royals.

So what if they sign a bad contract? $10 million is a lot easier to replace than the talent it would cost to fill those holes via trades.

Of course, it's fashionable to blow off those signings as "money flushed down the toilet," but the fact is, if the Reds aren't spending now, they'll never spend in the future, because the market isn't going to slow down.

lollipopcurve
12-12-2006, 03:23 PM
the fact is, if the Reds aren't spending now, they'll never spend in the future, because the market isn't going to slow down.

How far does this dismal future extend?

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 03:34 PM
How far does this dismal future extend?

Until the population of Cincinnati reaches 20 million and it ceases to be a "small market."

Or until the Reds' farm system starts feeding the big club real talent on a yearly basis.

Either way, it will be a long, long time.

Spring~Fields
12-12-2006, 03:37 PM
Until the population of Cincinnati reaches 20 million and it ceases to be a "small market."

Or until the Reds' farm system starts feeding the big club real talent on a yearly basis.

Either way, it will be a long, long time.

Plus the competition has to get worse along the way too.

RedsManRick
12-12-2006, 03:40 PM
At the same time, you don't go out and pay 800 bucks to buy a new lawnmower that will last you 5 years when you can you borrow your neighbors to finish out the season for 20 bucks.

I agree, WK went overboard on the mediocre old relievers -- particularly when it looks like we have a few guys in the minors ready to contribute. That said, 1 big mistake can do more harm than a few small ones because you can correct them more easily. You can likely flip your slighly overpaid reliever to somebody else come July -- good luck flipping a starter with a 5.00 ERA and 3 years left on a bloated contract...

Granted, you need to make actual good decisions at some point, but there's something to be said for not making big mistakes. We need to get better in the rotation. But I'm not going to lose sleep because WK didn't go out and give 10MM and 4 years to Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Mark Redman, or Miguel Batista.

traderumor
12-12-2006, 04:15 PM
At the same time, you don't go out and pay 800 bucks to buy a new lawnmower that will last you 5 years when you can you borrow your neighbors to finish out the season for 20 bucks.

I agree, WK went overboard on the mediocre old relievers -- particularly when it looks like we have a few guys in the minors ready to contribute. That said, 1 big mistake can do more harm than a few small ones because you can correct them more easily. You can likely flip your slighly overpaid reliever to somebody else come July -- good luck flipping a starter with a 5.00 ERA and 3 years left on a bloated contract...

Granted, you need to make actual good decisions at some point, but there's something to be said for not making big mistakes. We need to get better in the rotation. But I'm not going to lose sleep because WK didn't go out and give 10MM and 4 years to Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Mark Redman, or Miguel Batista.That would be in line with what I am getting at.

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 05:18 PM
At the same time, you don't go out and pay 800 bucks to buy a new lawnmower that will last you 5 years when you can you borrow your neighbors to finish out the season for 20 bucks.

I agree, WK went overboard on the mediocre old relievers -- particularly when it looks like we have a few guys in the minors ready to contribute. That said, 1 big mistake can do more harm than a few small ones because you can correct them more easily. You can likely flip your slighly overpaid reliever to somebody else come July -- good luck flipping a starter with a 5.00 ERA and 3 years left on a bloated contract...

Granted, you need to make actual good decisions at some point, but there's something to be said for not making big mistakes. We need to get better in the rotation. But I'm not going to lose sleep because WK didn't go out and give 10MM and 4 years to Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Mark Redman, or Miguel Batista.

The lawnmower analogy isn't really applicable. We're talking play money here -- tens of millions of dollars, a revenue stream that supports that kind of spending, and franchises that increase in value by $100 million over the course of 5 short years.

And as I've said before, it's a lot easier to replace cash than it is to replace talent. Another Milton contract wouldn't hurt the Reds nearly as much as another Kearns/Lopez fiasco.

traderumor
12-12-2006, 09:11 PM
The lawnmower analogy isn't really applicable. We're talking play money here -- tens of millions of dollars, a revenue stream that supports that kind of spending, and franchises that increase in value by $100 million over the course of 5 short years.

And as I've said before, it's a lot easier to replace cash than it is to replace talent. Another Milton contract wouldn't hurt the Reds nearly as much as another Kearns/Lopez fiasco.The lawnmower example isn't applicable, but "we're talking play money here" is? Johnny, that's about as far from reality as one could get on spending for payroll.

toledodan
12-12-2006, 09:48 PM
Haynes, paging Mr. Haynes :evil:



yep haynes and joe mays have already been seen heading down 75 to florida to stalk the reds 5th spot in the rotation. they may have to end it in a steel cage deathmatch to see which one gets to put up a 7 plus era.:D :evil: :D

Johnny Footstool
12-13-2006, 09:28 AM
The lawnmower example isn't applicable, but "we're talking play money here" is? Johnny, that's about as far from reality as one could get on spending for payroll.

Ask the Royals if they're using real money. Ask the Cubs and Astros.

Explain the reality of spending on payroll.

traderumor
12-13-2006, 11:17 AM
Ask the Royals if they're using real money. Ask the Cubs and Astros.

Explain the reality of spending on payroll.

The Royals have a new GM trying to make a splash. It seems that someone forgot to put water in the pool, though. So, THUD, right into the cement. It is real money and they will be paying for this year for at least 5 years more, and that's just one very questionable signing with Meche.

The Cubs and Astros? Are you serious? They spend every year. The Cubs spend and spend and lose and lose. The Astros spend and spend but just can't seem to get this hitting thing down, but they sure do pay a lot for a Rocket Man.

Regardless, your line of argumentation is very much like the Seinfeld episode where George decided that an unexpected windfall required parlaying the funds. I'm glad the Reds are not getting their fiscal philosophies from George Costanza.

Johnny Footstool
12-13-2006, 12:13 PM
The Royals have a new GM trying to make a splash. It seems that someone forgot to put water in the pool, though. So, THUD, right into the cement. It is real money and they will be paying for this year for at least 5 years more, and that's just one very questionable signing with Meche.

The Cubs and Astros? Are you serious? They spend every year. The Cubs spend and spend and lose and lose. The Astros spend and spend but just can't seem to get this hitting thing down, but they sure do pay a lot for a Rocket Man.

Regardless, your line of argumentation is very much like the Seinfeld episode where George decided that an unexpected windfall required parlaying the funds. I'm glad the Reds are not getting their fiscal philosophies from George Costanza.

So what if the Cubs and Astros spend every year? That seems to prove my point -- the money isn't "real."

The fact that Royals ownership allowed Drayton McClane to spend so much money just to make a splash should point out how absurd the economics of baseball are, and how they are unlike real-world economics.

traderumor
12-13-2006, 12:31 PM
So what if the Cubs and Astros spend every year? That seems to prove my point -- the money isn't "real."

The fact that Royals ownership allowed Drayton McClane to spend so much money just to make a splash should point out how absurd the economics of baseball are, and how they are unlike real-world economics.

Sure, there are some unique aspects to the economics of baseball, but there are still budgets, limited revenues, competition for talent, etc. That the dollar figures normally have 7 digits still does not mean that there are unlimited resources. If the goal is winning rather than doing something, teams that are not paying the Gil Meche's of this world $50M seem to be showing proper restraint and could be positioning themselves to get in the market at the right time. One of the concepts that keeps on ringing in my ears was a quote I read from Brian Cashman recently, where he said something to the effect that you are going to pay dearly if you have to go to the free agent market to fill holes. And that is coming from someone who almost fits your concept of "play money." That will always be true in the current free agent setup, which is mostly comprised of guys wanting megacontracts for past performance that is not commensurate with their net present value. Buying a free agent is sort of like getting in late on a blue chip stock--pricey and its growth potential is very limited.

Spring~Fields
12-13-2006, 04:39 PM
The Cubs and Astros? Are you serious? They spend every year. The Cubs spend and spend and lose and lose. The Astros spend and spend but just can't seem to get this hitting thing down, but they sure do pay a lot for a Rocket Man.



I think that these discussions regarding the Reds spending any money on contracts that would challenge their budget constraints and increase very long term risk are mute points as the Reds have shown a reasonable or otherwise aversion to them to date even if a select contract might have filled a need. If we simply follow what they have done and let that speak to us as the actual direction in their thinking then we see that they are not about to spend in what some might think is an out of control market.

We know that the “budget” is their plan, and within that budget plan we can deduce within some reason what directions that they will or have to take, especially when we have follow up moves to give indicators to support the impression. I believe it has been wreckless for Castellini to expressly state or imply that the Reds had intentions to spend sums of money to increase the talent level on their team to compete and even win in the present for the fans to grasp at with unreserved hope, when he has no intention of doing such, lets not be naive about investors and their desire for return on investments.

Leaving them and to their other options of improving the team over time through trades when they have even more limited resources than they might have in monetary. Then they have the time proven method of improving the team over years through drafts and player development within their minor league system and other. Either of these two will call for much higher skill and ability from the general manager of operations and his support staff over a longer time table. Which will have success and failures as comes natural through the process.

All along the way this organization will have to live with what the competition does or does not do within their organizations as they too make impovements to their various avenues of present and future players.

red-in-la
12-13-2006, 07:40 PM
At the risk of getting in trouble....I cannot resist this discusion.

I think TR is right on. It very much is play money in that it is NOT reality. There absolutely are NOT budgets. One year the Pirates spend 9 million, the next year they spend 45 million.....or some such. Look at the Marlins.

And....so the new Royals' GM wants to make a splash? He doesn't provide the money, the owners do....so they want to make a splash too.

Well....were is the big Red splash? Reds have a sophomore GM AND a new owner who has stated that he wants to win NOW.

The only thing that would have showed me he meant it would have been signing Jason Schmidt for whatever it costs.

And one more point that is where I believe this post started (pun).

If you compare the Reds rotation to the Cubs, Cards and Astros and say you like Arroyo and Harang......just remember that neither Arroyo or Harang are a Chris Carpenter, a Zambrano or an Oswalt.

The Reds are much shorter on offense so far this off season.....and the current leadership seems to be taking it for granted. You build your team to the ballpark, and at GAB that means home runs.....those hit in bunches and those NOT surrendered.

Milton and Lohse at not long on the one, and the loss over the last few months of Kearns, Lopez and Aurillia makes the Reds much shorter on the other.

Spitball
12-13-2006, 07:51 PM
I think that these discussions regarding the Reds spending any money on contracts that would challenge their budget constraints and increase very long term risk are mute points as the Reds have shown a reasonable or otherwise aversion to them to date even if a select contract might have filled a need. If we simply follow what they have done and let that speak to us as the actual direction in their thinking then we see that they are not about to spend in what some might think is an out of control market.

We know that the “budget” is their plan, and within that budget plan we can deduce within some reason what directions that they will or have to take, especially when we have follow up moves to give indicators to support the impression. I believe it has been wreckless for Castellini to expressly state or imply that the Reds had intentions to spend sums of money to increase the talent level on their team to compete and even win in the present for the fans to grasp at with unreserved hope, when he has no intention of doing such, lets not be naive about investors and their desire for return on investments.

Leaving them and to their other options of improving the team over time through trades when they have even more limited resources than they might have in monetary. Then they have the time proven method of improving the team over years through drafts and player development within their minor league system and other. Either of these two will call for much higher skill and ability from the general manager of operations and his support staff over a longer time table. Which will have success and failures as comes natural through the process.

All along the way this organization will have to live with what the competition does or does not do within their organizations as they too make impovements to their various avenues of present and future players.

Nice logic rather than a venting rant.:thumbup:

Spitball
12-13-2006, 08:07 PM
The only thing that would have showed me he meant it would have been signing Jason Schmidt for whatever it costs.

Wait, what would it take to get Schmidt to pitch in the GAB? I'm guessing he had multiple choices, some free will, and some intelligence. Only about 38.3 percent of his balls in play last season were groundballs. Just maybe he had heard about the Eric Miltons, Mike Hamptons, and Darryl Kiles of the world who took the top dollar to pitch in parks not conducive to their particular styles. Hey, when we are talking unfathomable millions, I'd choose the pitchers' park, also.

red-in-la
12-13-2006, 10:46 PM
You are right, maybe Jason Schmidt wasn't the best example.....maybe Barry Zito.....whatever.

Other new owners who meant what they said, whether they were billionaires or just millionaires, have spent tons of play money to let their fans know that they meant to bring a winner in NOW.

Had Castellini said, "we want to build a long term winning organization" then I wouldn't be saying this.....but so far, we have had trades that were quite costly in terms of talent and bottom feeding FA signings......same-o, same-o.

So what has changed?

Falls City Beer
12-13-2006, 10:48 PM
So what has changed?

You know, I hate being so jaded as not to believe a word that anyone in this FO utters. But it's pretty much reached that point. I just ignore whatever they say and attempt to parse the subtext.

Johnny Footstool
12-14-2006, 09:31 AM
At the risk of getting in trouble....I cannot resist this discusion.

I think TR is right on. It very much is play money in that it is NOT reality. There absolutely are NOT budgets.

Didn't TR take the opposite tack -- that fiscal responsibility is a must?

At any rate, I don't see much need for any team to be fiscally responsible. No one goes bankrupt; if you approach those levels, MLB bails you out (D-Backs, Expos). Maybe MLB will let you trade in your old franchise for a new one. Bud is always ready to make a deal on a trade-in. Worst-case scenario, you simply sell the team for 2-5 times what you paid for it.

When you've got that kind of a safety net, there are very few consequences for being irresponsible with your cash. That's not how the real world works, but MLB has that system down to a science.

traderumor
12-14-2006, 11:53 AM
At the risk of getting in trouble....I cannot resist this discusion.

I think TR is right on. It very much is play money in that it is NOT reality. There absolutely are NOT budgets. One year the Pirates spend 9 million, the next year they spend 45 million.....or some such. Look at the Marlins.

And....so the new Royals' GM wants to make a splash? He doesn't provide the money, the owners do....so they want to make a splash too.

Well....were is the big Red splash? Reds have a sophomore GM AND a new owner who has stated that he wants to win NOW.

The only thing that would have showed me he meant it would have been signing Jason Schmidt for whatever it costs.

And one more point that is where I believe this post started (pun).

If you compare the Reds rotation to the Cubs, Cards and Astros and say you like Arroyo and Harang......just remember that neither Arroyo or Harang are a Chris Carpenter, a Zambrano or an Oswalt.

The Reds are much shorter on offense so far this off season.....and the current leadership seems to be taking it for granted. You build your team to the ballpark, and at GAB that means home runs.....those hit in bunches and those NOT surrendered.

Milton and Lohse at not long on the one, and the loss over the last few months of Kearns, Lopez and Aurillia makes the Reds much shorter on the other.

I think you may have confused positions, as JF pointed out. Regardless, it is not necessarily that varied spending by teams from year to year indicate lack of some form of budget. Take a company making capital improvements, for example. Because they spend a lot in one year does not mean there is not a budget. A construction company does not need new equipment every year, and a baseball team does not need new players every year that require high $, multi-year expenditures. That says nothing to whether or not either the construction company or the baseball team is operating under a budget. For example, when Griffey is off the books and Milton is off the books, it would be expected that the Reds might have more money within the budget to spend for new players.

Jaycint
12-14-2006, 02:40 PM
yep haynes and joe mays have already been seen heading down 75 to florida to stalk the reds 5th spot in the rotation. they may have to end it in a steel cage deathmatch to see which one gets to put up a 7 plus era.:D :evil: :D

I guess there is the silver lining to that scenario which is we would never have to worry about one of them donning a Reds uniform ever again.