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reds44
12-12-2006, 06:17 PM
The Astros have acquired Jason Jennings and Miguel Asencio from the Rockies for Jason Hirsh, Willy Taveras and Taylor Buchholz, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports.

When Houston GM Tim Purpura got his extension this winter, we indicated that he probably ranked among the top half of MLB GMs. Let us now revise that assessment. Yes, it looks like he was handcuffed by ownership on the Andy Pettitte negotiations, and indications were that the overwhelming bid for Carlos Lee was also fueled by ownership. This, however, has got to be mostly Purpura and it is one ugly trade. Hirsh is probably going to be a better pitcher than Jennings someday -- maybe as soon as 2008. We don't hold Taveras in high regard and Buchholz is probably better utilized as a reliever than as a starter, but there's no way the Astros should have made this trade, not when Jennings is just a year away from free agency.
-rotoworld

Johnny Footstool
12-12-2006, 06:20 PM
The Astros better sign Jennings to an LTC, or else they've just screwed up pretty badly.

Kc61
12-12-2006, 06:28 PM
The Astros better sign Jennings to an LTC, or else they've just screwed up pretty badly.

They will and they didn't. They care about winning in the major leagues, which they usually do.

RedsManRick
12-12-2006, 06:32 PM
Fine with me. I agree with you Johnny. If they don't ink him long term, they got the shaft.

Aronchis
12-12-2006, 06:32 PM
Good deal for the Rockies. Should of the Reds offered Arroyo;)

Caveat Emperor
12-12-2006, 06:34 PM
They will and they didn't. They care about winning in the major leagues, which they usually do.

I get the "bird in the hand" argument, but the money is eventually going to run out in Houston -- and they'll probably overpay to keep Jennings in order to justify this trade to themselves. I don't like getting into the business of forking over big dough for #3 starters.

Just a hunch on that.

Edd Roush
12-12-2006, 06:38 PM
So is the Reds equivalent Lizard, Bailey and Denorfia? That's a high price to pay if you only get him for one year. They better get long-term or they are in trouble. I wouldn't want to pay that much, but that could put them over the hump in the division this year. Probably hurts them long-term.

Spitball
12-12-2006, 06:41 PM
The Astros better sign Jennings to an LTC, or else they've just screwed up pretty badly.

...and there better be a humidor to be named later. ;)

danforsman
12-12-2006, 06:59 PM
I like Jennings, especially better than Garland, but I'd be surprised if Jennings doesn't want to at least test the free agent waters at the end of 2007, in which case this could prove quite a gamble long-term for Houston.

harangatang
12-12-2006, 07:10 PM
Carlos Beltran Part 2

VR
12-12-2006, 07:15 PM
...and there better be a humidor to be named later. ;)


Not sure what all the love for Jennings is....he's been absolutely mediocre at best since he was ROY. Not sure I've seen a starter with a career k/bb rate that close to 1:1. El Humidor helped him a lot last year.

PuffyPig
12-12-2006, 07:22 PM
Even if they sign him long term, it's still essentially a one year rental as they will have to fork over FA money in any event. If Jennings has a big year, he will make a fortune.

Falls City Beer
12-12-2006, 07:26 PM
Not sure what all the love for Jennings is....he's been absolutely mediocre at best since he was ROY. Not sure I've seen a starter with a career k/bb rate that close to 1:1. El Humidor helped him a lot last year.

Russ Ortiz
Mike Hampton
Kirk Rueter

SirFelixCat
12-12-2006, 07:33 PM
He and Craig Wilson were on my Christmas wish list, but that sure was a whole lot to spend. I wanna cry, but if the deal had to include Bailey, I'm good with the Reds not making it. Still stings a bit though....

VR
12-12-2006, 07:33 PM
Russ Ortiz
Mike Hampton
Kirk Rueter

And there you have it.

Falls City Beer
12-12-2006, 07:34 PM
And there you have it.

And that's just in the last 10 years.

Falls City Beer
12-12-2006, 07:42 PM
I get the "bird in the hand" argument, but the money is eventually going to run out in Houston -- .

Not bloody likely to run out--they've been contenders for 12 seasons now. Why will hard times all of a sudden descend on one of the most successful franchises of the last 20 years? Not to pummel a cliche, but success breeds success.

WVRed
12-12-2006, 08:16 PM
This trade is a wash, where it might have been a rip if it was anybody else.

Hirsh is headed to Coors Field, depleting his value, same for Bucholtz. Taveras is similar to Juan Pierre.

Caveat Emperor
12-12-2006, 09:03 PM
Not bloody likely to run out--they've been contenders for 12 seasons now. Why will hard times all of a sudden descend on one of the most successful franchises of the last 20 years? Not to pummel a cliche, but success breeds success.

To continue our cliche-off, even a drunken sailor sobers up eventually. They've been contenders for 12 seasons, but even contenders can get tied into bad-money deals that impede their ability to continue competing at a high level.

They aren't the New York Yankees and, thus, aren't impervious to having a couple bad contracts (like I believe the Lee one will end up being) set them back a bit.

Kc61
12-12-2006, 10:41 PM
To continue our cliche-off, even a drunken sailor sobers up eventually. They've been contenders for 12 seasons, but even contenders can get tied into bad-money deals that impede their ability to continue competing at a high level.

They aren't the New York Yankees and, thus, aren't impervious to having a couple bad contracts (like I believe the Lee one will end up being) set them back a bit.

If Jennings is a bust, the Astros won't re-sign him and they will have lost three players for nothing. But they will then sign a different free agent pitcher and replace Jennings. They want to win so they will try to have three or four solid starting pitchers every year.

The Astros, like the Cards, don't spend wildly but every year they try to make the moves they need to have a playoff team. Some other teams I know don't operate that way, but focus on long-term futures that seem never to come.

dougflynn23
12-12-2006, 11:01 PM
:confused: Jason Hirsh would have outperformed Jason Jennings in 2007 had Houston not made this trade. I'm not a big fan of Buchholz, and Taveras is nothing more than a servicable OF, but Hirsh is the real deal.

If I were Wayne Krivsky, I'd immediately call Colorado and offer Dunn straight up for Jason Hirsh. He would not be sorry.

The_jbh
12-12-2006, 11:50 PM
So is the Reds equivalent Lizard, Bailey and Denorfia? That's a high price to pay if you only get him for one year. They better get long-term or they are in trouble. I wouldn't want to pay that much, but that could put them over the hump in the division this year. Probably hurts them long-term.


I would say the Reds equivalent would have been Freel Bailey and Cuento/Wood

Bucholz has WAY better stuff than Lizard... but arm problems. Cuento is probably the best comparison live arm wise

def too much for the reds to give

The_jbh
12-12-2006, 11:52 PM
:confused: Jason Hirsh would have outperformed Jason Jennings in 2007 had Houston not made this trade. I'm not a big fan of Buchholz, and Taveras is nothing more than a servicable OF, but Hirsh is the real deal.

If I were Wayne Krivsky, I'd immediately call Colorado and offer Dunn straight up for Jason Hirsh. He would not be sorry.


good think you aren't Wayne Krivsky...

i like Hirsh as a potential upper rotation starter but potential is the key word and not enough for a cornerstone slugger...

cincinnati chili
12-13-2006, 12:11 AM
This would have been a great deal for the Rockies even if Tavares wasn't part of the deal.

I'd say there's about a 50/50 chance that Hirsh will have a better year than Jennings THIS year, if you account for park factors.

I don't like the fact that the Rockies will probably try to stick Tavares in the leadoff spot, but his defensive value is hard to argue with in the world's largest surface-area ballpark.

Jpup
12-13-2006, 03:48 AM
This is the most lopsided trade that I have seen in a long time. The Astros got ripped off bad. IMO, this is much worse than anything Krivsky has done. Very, very stupid on Houston's part.

mth123
12-13-2006, 07:14 AM
I was one of the primary guys pushing for the Reds to get Jennings, but I wouldn't have paid the equivalent of what the Astros did. I think they overpaid a bit but really Hirsch is all they are going to miss. In 2007 the Astros are going to be pretty good. Oswalt, Jennings, Williams as a top 3.

Astros had a lot of money with Bagwell and Petitte off the books so the really haven't taken a huge $ hit with Williams, Jennings and Lee.

One aspect not mentioned, the Astros need to look like they have a chance to win in 2007 if they want to get Clemens back again. Now they look pretty good and if Clemens comes back they could be awesome. If Clemens doesn't come back they have plenty of money available.

dougflynn23
12-13-2006, 09:30 AM
good think you aren't Wayne Krivsky...

i like Hirsh as a potential upper rotation starter but potential is the key word and not enough for a cornerstone slugger... A .490 SLG % (4th on the team behind Ross, Aurilia, and Kearns) and over 600 PA's without 100 RBI does not qualify one as a "cornerstone slugger". In all honesty, there's a 5/50 chance Colorado would reject that trade offer.

redsmetz
12-13-2006, 10:10 AM
One aspect not mentioned, the Astros need to look like they have a chance to win in 2007 if they want to get Clemens back again. Now they look pretty good and if Clemens comes back they could be awesome. If Clemens doesn't come back they have plenty of money available.

This isn't aimed at you, MTH123, but you mentioned Clemens. Just out of curiousity, when is Father Time going to catch up with Roger Clemens? And why is every Reds pitcher going to see a diminishment in their pitching skills or our 38 and 39 year old pitchers are too old, but The Rocket gets a pass and there's no question about whether his skills will finally diminish? Now Clemens certainly is an unbelievable oddity in that his part-time work has seemed to remain at a high level, much like Nolan Ryan's did, but why no suggestion that Clemens time may well be ready to pass?

[Again, this isn't aimed at you specifically, just a churlish question for those who seem believe Reds pitchers will always worsen and others pitchers will always develop and become - or stay - studs]

mth123
12-13-2006, 10:37 PM
This isn't aimed at you, MTH123, but you mentioned Clemens. Just out of curiousity, when is Father Time going to catch up with Roger Clemens? And why is every Reds pitcher going to see a diminishment in their pitching skills or our 38 and 39 year old pitchers are too old, but The Rocket gets a pass and there's no question about whether his skills will finally diminish? Now Clemens certainly is an unbelievable oddity in that his part-time work has seemed to remain at a high level, much like Nolan Ryan's did, but why no suggestion that Clemens time may well be ready to pass?

[Again, this isn't aimed at you specifically, just a churlish question for those who seem believe Reds pitchers will always worsen and others pitchers will always develop and become - or stay - studs]

I know its not aimed at me, but I'll respond anyway.

Clemens is still pretty dominant. He is obviously cut from a different cloth from the run of the mill pitchers out there. In my book he's still a quality pitcher until he proves he isn't. If Clemens drops off by 25% he's still a decent number 3 starter.

The Reds older pitchers have never really proven to be all that good in their prime (but Mike Stanton was pretty effective once upon a time).

David Weathers was always a struggling "9th or 10th pitcher on the staff" journeyman until last year. In 2006 he got pretty good results, but his component parts scream fluke. He walked over 4 batters per 9 innings and gave up almost a HR and a half per nine. That's a bad combo. Weathers results were good based primarily on a BABIP of .236 which doesn't seem to be something that can be repeated.

As for Cormier, he was very effective in Philly in 2006 but it was also based on a similar BABIP of .238. When Cormier came to Cincy the worm turned and his BABIP was .353 and he was pretty ineffective. I actually think that Cormier will be better than he showed in Cincy last year, but even if he performs to his normal level, he's no better option than Shack, Coutlangus etc as a LH in the pen.

Stanton actually looks a little better, but he was helped by his park in 2006. The big beef with him was the idea of signing him when other needs were much more urgent.

These 3 represent about $7.5 Million when guys who are already on hand for the minimum seem like comparable options. The Reds need to spend where the money buys an upgrade.

Patrick Bateman
12-13-2006, 11:14 PM
David Weathers was always a struggling "9th or 10th pitcher on the staff" journeyman until last year. In 2006 he got pretty good results, but his component parts scream fluke. He walked over 4 batters per 9 innings and gave up almost a HR and a half per nine. That's a bad combo. Weathers results were good based primarily on a BABIP of .236 which doesn't seem to be something that can be repeated.




Weathers was a much better pitcher in 2005 than in 2006.