View Full Version : Krivsky and "inactivity"
12-14-2006, 12:13 AM
There seems to be a good deal of concern about Krivsky's inactivity at thhe Winter Meetings, and although it makes for kind of a boring Hot Stove, strategically it has put the Reds in a better position coming into ST. This is my analysis based not only on the production of the players acquired, but includes the team's position to address needs down the road:
1) Things are by no means over. Teams are waiting for the titanic signings to happen, and then I think the shoe will drop. After Matsuzaka issue is settled look for a lot of moves in MLB.
2) The Cubs spent a ton of money and didn't really get better. They are handicapped by their "activity" because if a major issue comes down the pike, they may not be able to financially address it. In not getting a good deal better with the money they spent, they got worse, or at least, whatever they are is quite brittle. Result from Winter Meetings: Worse.
3) The Cards have three key players, Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen who all had injury problems in 2006. They have also laid out big bucks--how much more can they spend if one or more of those three goes down?---and IMO it is likely to happen. Result from Winter Meetings: Neutral to Worse.
4) Houston paid an ENORMOUS price in prospects for Jennings--and all they did was replace Pettitte's production. They have money to spend, especially if Clemens does not come back, but what FA is out there to sign at this point? Who is willing to part with pitching, and if there is someone, what would the Stros have to offer them? Houston fans are now looking at their 2007 pitching staff, and it's not as good as last year's. The Stros also paid a TON of money for Carlos Lee--the type of player who's production tends to head down after age 30. They bought high. Result of Winter Meetings: Neutral to Worse.
5) Adam Dunn's trade value went up at the Winter Meetings after seeing the kind of money that went to FA. Again, the big transactions have to be over and watch for Dunn to be traded when the landscape becomes clear. The Reds pitching staff as a whole got better with the signing of Alex Gonzalez. Aurilia was a tough loss, but the Reds have a couple young infielders who need to be looked at, namely Votto, Harris and Bergolla, and having some ABs to give them would serve the Reds. Result of Winter Meetings: Neutral to Better.
12-14-2006, 12:36 AM
12-14-2006, 02:50 AM
He's a 23-yr. old AAA player who has improved at every level since rookie ball.
12-14-2006, 03:06 AM
It all comes down to this...how you spend your money. Let's say the Reds have $70 million to spend. Maybe you should looka t Bergolla and/or Votto for help, but instead they go after Gonzo and Craig Wilson. Is this wise?
I don't know, but I do know that adding catchers and relief arms at a record pace doesn't seem to strengthen the club while the starting staff depends on the injured arm (and knee) of Eric Milton and the false hope of Kyle Lohse. Yes, the market was crazy, but that was on the free agent market. What about a good old fashioned trade? Oh, that's right. We traded our main bait at mid-season last year for a sore-armed reliever and a prospect (I am prepared for the onslaught of negative rep that everyone is tempted to give).
Folks it all boils down to this. Given the market, we did the best we could. Unless Bob C. has some personal money he wants to put into the pot, this is the Reds. Still not fixed. I only have a problem with signing the Gonxo's and Moeller's of the world (and maybe even the Weathers') at somewhat big money if you're going to poor mouth. Especially when you need a bat and that bat resides in Washington now. And that's not to mention a couple of starters. Let's just say this. Being competitive for the pennant as promised means different things to different people. I don't think anyone expected the Reds to have no one to trade (outside of Adam Dunn and EdE).
It's a fine mess and only large volumes of cash will fix it. Ain't we ain't got it.
12-14-2006, 06:04 AM
He's a 23-yr. old AAA player who has improved at every level since rookie ball.
Bergolla is a minor league Free Agent. I doubt he'll be back in the organization.
12-14-2006, 09:47 AM
Bergolla is a AAAA reserve infielder at the very best and then only because there aren't better alternatives whcih would be very sad. Krivsky has also all but ruled out Votto starting the season on the 25-man.
I started the offseason firmly on the optomistic side of neutral, but now find myself sliding more and more to the negative. Mainly because of WK's lack of action so far and some of the recent statements he has made indicating a certain willingness to basically accept the status quo.
The Cardnials will be better by the end of the offseason - count on it - Jocketty will make things happen. The Astros may have hurt themselves longterm, but will be better next year and the Scrubs got considerably better just by trading Dusty for Lou and while they definitely overpaid for Soriano and Lily and it may come back to bight them in the ass, they did improve themselves shortterm.
Even the Pirates and Brewers, while arguably still behind us and have been pretty much as inactive, have better farms systems and better prospects in the upper levels of their farm system (after Bailey).
I agree with you when you say that there is time, but that time must be used wisely. There needs to be at least one more very decent RH bat, another starter better than Lohse, Milton and the current candidates and a young BP power arm with the potential to grow into the closer's role. Anything less will be a failure of an off season as far as I'm concerned.
And while he's at it he needs to insure that Junior does not start the season in CF. Also, if he does deal Dunn, he needs to make sure he gets value in return - at least a solid bat and arm in return - anything less would be a disaster for this franchise. Trading Milton would be nice too - but that just a personal hope.
I'm not saying it will be easy given what he has to deal with, but it can be done if Krivsky is creative enough and he's paid the big bucks just for that reason.
Bergolla is an enigma. Half the reports I have seen on him state he is an outstanding fielder. The other half refute this. He's a guy that seems like he'd be at least a league average or better OBP guy, but he regressed hard in 2006. If he is no longer employed by the Reds, he'll land somewhere. I'm betting he stays with the Reds.
I don't think the Cubs are ever handcuffed financially. now handcuffed by stupidity? yeah, they do that. And yes, the Cubs got a lot better this offseason. Soriano, Lee and Ramirez all in the same lineup is pretty damn good. In fact there isn't a better 3-4-5 in the NL Central. Their rotation looks more than solid. The pen is suspect, but I'm picking them to finish 1st or 2nd this year.
The Cards are worse by subtraction. Kind of. I don't like their rotation, but I didn't like it last year. We'll see how Reyes responds to 30 starts. their 3-4-5 pitchers didn't start a whole lot of games last year. Brad Thompson? Really?
Houston found a bat, but the rotation is a joke past Oswalt. Clemens won't pitch again for them if at all. Biggio is 347 years old. Needless to say he ain't what he was defensively. Overall that whole team leaves me flat.
I think there is plenty of time for Krivsky to make some more moves. And I want him to take his time. Most of his summer transactions came in a flurry, and that didn't work too well for him. Or the Reds.
12-14-2006, 10:28 AM
Spending a good chunk of your available cash and practically all your trading chips on middle relief doesn't seem a like a good strategy whether on not you like each individual transaction.
Stanton, Cormier and Weathers add up to over $7 mm a year. That's a high price to pay for "comfort" and probably better spent elsewhere.
If your farm system can't even provide you with two arms you can stick into middle relief, why do you have it?
12-14-2006, 10:52 AM
I'm willing to bet a case of beer in two years or less, those teams signing these mediocre players to huge contracts will be looking to unload them.
This year's free agent crop was weak. Why spend your fortunes when you know next year's crop will be much better?
12-14-2006, 01:53 PM
Say what you want about Carlos Lee's abilities, but his agent played the market perfectly. He got his client to put off any sentimentality he might have had for the Brewers and take less money out of the kindness of his heart to the Brewers org., forcing a trade (which yielded below market value for the Brewers), then ended up on the open market at the end of year. The market made him look like a jewel in a pig's snout, so Houston bit and gave him the big contract. I hope Carlos gets him or her a really nice Christmas present, because his agent certainly deserves one.
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