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Spike
12-15-2006, 11:06 PM
I will probably get crucified over this, but I think we might be a Craig Wilson and maybe a Tony Armas Jr. type away from being very competitive. Here is how I see it.

Outfield: Strong! I know I hear no one else seems to think this, but some assumptions have to be made. Chris Denorfia will ascend to a defensive force and a table setter. (The Reds committed to him modeling the new uniforms so I believe he is here to stay.) Dunn: 40 homers+ with maybe some maturity to a 260 batting avg. Griffey, if healthy, did I say "if" is a force with also a 260 avg., and a prorated 35 homer year. Freel subbing regularily at a 275+ avg and 35 SB.

Infield: Encarnacion: 30 Hr's with 80R-100RBI. Gonzalez (I don't really care, batting 8th and playing All-Star defense.) Phillips (Could make or break the season) .300 avg 80R-80RBI or bust! And a Hatteberg (300 Avg.) and Wilson platooning with a .260 avg and 20+ HR's makes me satisfied at first.

Catcher: Ross ( a drop slightly from last year, but Valentin making a slight comeback) and Moeller gone!

Bullpen: Hate me again, but I think we will have one of the top 10 bullpens in baseball in 2007. If I am wrong on anything else here, I think I will be right on this. Find a true closer, we are in the top 5.

Starting Rotation: Arroyo was too good to be true last year! If he is true? Then adding even a Tony Armas addition with his upside (and downside I know), the rotation falls in line a bit. (Oh, a simple assumption, Homer Bailey is up by June.)

So Reds fans, what do you think?

I know...Bullet proof vest is a must!

RedLegSuperStar
12-15-2006, 11:15 PM
I'd rather the Reds spend the 10+ million on obtaining Craig Wilson and Tony Armas, Jr. then resigning Stormy Weathers and bringing in Mike Stanton.

TOBTTReds
12-16-2006, 02:41 AM
I'd rather the Reds spend the 10+ million on obtaining Craig Wilson and Tony Armas, Jr. then resigning Stormy Weathers and bringing in Mike Stanton.

True dat.

mth123
12-16-2006, 06:18 AM
I will probably get crucified over this, but I think we might be a Craig Wilson and maybe a Tony Armas Jr. type away from being very competitive. Here is how I see it.

Outfield: Strong! I know I hear no one else seems to think this, but some assumptions have to be made. Chris Denorfia will ascend to a defensive force and a table setter. (The Reds committed to him modeling the new uniforms so I believe he is here to stay.) Dunn: 40 homers+ with maybe some maturity to a 260 batting avg. Griffey, if healthy, did I say "if" is a force with also a 260 avg., and a prorated 35 homer year. Freel subbing regularily at a 275+ avg and 35 SB.

Infield: Encarnacion: 30 Hr's with 80R-100RBI. Gonzalez (I don't really care, batting 8th and playing All-Star defense.) Phillips (Could make or break the season) .300 avg 80R-80RBI or bust! And a Hatteberg (300 Avg.) and Wilson platooning with a .260 avg and 20+ HR's makes me satisfied at first.

Catcher: Ross ( a drop slightly from last year, but Valentin making a slight comeback) and Moeller gone!

Bullpen: Hate me again, but I think we will have one of the top 10 bullpens in baseball in 2007. If I am wrong on anything else here, I think I will be right on this. Find a true closer, we are in the top 5.

Starting Rotation: Arroyo was too good to be true last year! If he is true? Then adding even a Tony Armas addition with his upside (and downside I know), the rotation falls in line a bit. (Oh, a simple assumption, Homer Bailey is up by June.)

So Reds fans, what do you think?

I know...Bullet proof vest is a must!

My Take:

Outfield: Agree on Dunn and Deno. Big If with Griffey. I wouldn't expect 35 Homers even if he's healthy. Freel really can only back-up adequately for Deno. If he replaces Griffey or Dunn the line-up is sunk. That isn't an indictment of Freel, but the line-up just can't afford to have so little power. Wilson would help there.

Infield: Basically agree on Encarnacion but 30 HR may be a little much. Still he'll slug well with lots of 2B. I think you are way too optimistic on Phillips and Hatteberg. If the Reds sign Wilson, I hope Hatte would become a bench player who is the sub for Griffey and Dunn with Wilson going to the OF. He'd be a good PH IMO.

Catcher: Ross/Javy are a real key. If they can show the same power as in 2006 (2005 for Javy), the Line-up might scrape by with enough power (again Wilson helps a lot if he'd play.) I expect a big decline. If the intent is for Javy to be a PH with Moeller getting playing time its a disaster IMO.

Rotation: Armas would help. He would need to stay healthy and maybe Lohse could be dealt for something useful if Armas was on board. I hope for Bailey too, but counting on him by June is risky. He may be up by then, but he might still be growing into his effectiveness. I hold out hopes that Belisle develops into a decent mid-rotation guy, but that is just an optimistic hope, not something to count on.

Bullpen: Biggest disagreement of all. This pen is Coffey and pray for help. Bray and Maj can be ok as 7th inning guys. So can Stanton I guess. Cormier and Weathers will be this year's Hammond and White IMO. Both were extremely lucky in 2006 and I expect them both to pitch about how Cormier pitched after coming to the Reds. Too many walks and HR for Weathers and just general mediocrity from Cormier.

Armas and Wilson would help a lot and the team would have some hope anyway, but the other projections seem a little too rosy for me. The Pen needs Bray and maybe a Salmon to step forward.

Krusty
12-16-2006, 08:28 AM
I do agree that by adding Wilson and Armas would make the club almost complete. Your rotation would be Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse and Armas. Wilson gives you the righthanded bat with some pop to platoon at lst and provide insurance for Griffey in RF.

That closer spot in the bullpen is what concerns me unless Coffey or Bray steps up in spring training and show they can do the job.

Wheelhouse
12-16-2006, 09:17 AM
Hey I'd love to believe what you're saying but the realities are harsher:

OF: Dunn has declined in production every year of his ML career. What makes you think he's going to get better? Griffey has had a major injury every year since 2002 except for last year--can we realistically expect he will have a full season of production? Freel has demonstrated that he performs best when rested--as a regular his #s drop off the table. Denorfia has yet to demonstrate he can hit ML pitching--faith in "Denorfia's time" seemed to wane later in the season in Reds management. There may be a reason for this. (PS--I wouldn't attribute job security to modeling the new unis :laugh: )

Infield: Defensively it will be a lot brighter--and that is good. But overall there are some key questions though: will Encarnacion mature into a consistent defender (I think he will-- he works hard)? Did Phillips turn the corner become the ML he was meant to be or will he regress to Cleveland levels--was it just the fear factor last year that made him perform? Can Hatteberg repeat his production? Can Ross?

Pitching: I think the Reds will have strong starting staff this year. Arroyo/Harang followed by an Eric Milton who will be on an out year in his contract ("The immediate prospect of hanging greatly sharpens the mind." - Samuel Johnson), Lohse who really did show signs of being a strong and mature pitcher last year and Bailey (who I think will maul in ST and get the job) will be a nice lineup. Shocked I'm saying that.

Relief: I don't have any idea how this bullpen will perform and I don't think anyone really does. My gut says they'll struggle until Guardado returns and roles solidify as they should. "Bullpen by committee" is a nice name for uncertainty, which never serves well in playing a baseball game.

Falls City Beer
12-16-2006, 11:04 AM
Tony Armas is useless. When healthy he's Eric Milton. And he's never healthy.

KoryMac5
12-16-2006, 02:59 PM
Tony Armas is useless. When healthy he's Eric Milton. And he's never healthy.

Armas is done. He doesn't have the stuff to get through two innings let alone a whole game. That's why there has been so much talk about converting him into a reliever. Which is probably why an Armas deal makes perfect sense to the Reds front office.

PuffyPig
12-17-2006, 12:35 PM
Tony Armas is useless. When healthy he's Eric Milton. And he's never healthy.

So he's never Eric Milton. Isn't that a good thing? :laugh: