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View Full Version : Quickest way to fix Reds: Cancel Wayne's World



AdamDunn
12-16-2006, 12:25 PM
Agree or Disagree?

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9869236

Quickest way to fix Reds: Cancel Wayne's World
By Larry Dobrow

In these prescriptive baseball columns O' mine, I throw a couple of ideas out into the ether and promptly wash my hands of them. Never once have I entertained the possibility that I could do a better job running a baseball team than the dudes/dudettes currently in charge of whatever franchise I'm evaluating.

That said, after conducting a full-body franchise physical, I am reasonably certain I could do a better job running the Cincinnati Reds than Wayne Krivsky.

So could you, you and you -- that's right, you over there, with the hair and the teeth and the prosthetic appendage. Well, maybe not you, Mom; your affinity for "toolsy" players doesn't fly in this era of Moneyballing and imprudent spending.

Not only can I Save This Franchise!™©®?, but I'd like to be considered for the gig when Cincy ownership gets wise to Krivsky's contractual and asset-swapping impotence within a year or two. Assuming Les Rouges are general-managed with even the barest hint of competence over the next 12 months, they've got a narrow window for contention in the two or three seasons to follow. Seriously, where should I send my resumé? I won't ask for much in the way of perks, outside of an on-call Town Car and generous grooming stipend.

Short-term outlook: No team that calls the NL Central home can be deemed a non-contender; as we've discussed, even the Pirates could possibly luck/bad-hop their way into 85 wins. The Reds' problem is that they don't project to score a whole lot of runs, which will put a ton of pressure on their shallow-as-a-starlet rotation, 642 middling middle relievers and clunky defenders to keep runs off the board. Given that they're slated to play 81 games in Un-Riverfront and a bunch more in homer-happy Minute Maid and Wrigley, that's wishful thinking.

Assets: For all the yapping about how the Reds lack starting pitching, few NL teams boast a more consistent top-of-the-rotation tandem than Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. You can't like the 59 dingers they gave up between them in 2006, nor their particular facial-hair predilections, but they look set for another 425-450 above-average innings in 2007 and beyond (I'm assuming the team will soon attempt to sign Harang to a long-ish deal that buys out his first year or two of free-agency). Meanwhile, I offer the following warning in the interest of the greater good: If you see erstwhile rocker Arroyo reaching for a guitar or a mic, pull the nearest fire alarm and take cover under a desk or against an inside wall.

Homer Bailey. Homer Bailey. Homer Bailey. More on him in a bit.

Liabilities: During Krivsky's long tenure in the Twins organization, the team always seemed to have a gaggle of prospects at the offing (of course, they consistently logjammed those prospects behind the Shannon Stewarts and Doug Mientkiewiczes of the world, but that's fodder for another story). Krivsky started strong in Cincy with the Arroyo acquisition. Since then ... yeesh.

Giving up two young, cheap, everyday bats in Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns for a bunch of middle relievers -- one of them, Gary Majewski, with a bum shoulder -- was short-sightedness at its worst. Then came the free-agent additions of Alex Gonzalez (nice glove and a teensy bit of power, but $14 million? Did I read that wrong?), Chad Moeller (a guaranteed contract?) and Mike Stanton (two guaranteed years for a 39-year-old dude who looked cooked two seasons ago?). He also chirped that Adam Dunn might have to go because he strikes out a lot (as opposed to most of his peers in the lineup, who don't whiff as much but can't get on base or drive the ball past the pitcher's mound).

I dunno. Krivsky has only held the gig for a little while, but he hasn't left anybody brimming with optimism for what comes next. And that's before he drove longtime player-development guru Johnny Almaraz out of town.

Paying $9 million per year for Eric Milton's particular brand of artistry is akin to paying $650 for a cup of coffee -- a cup of coffee prone to skin-scalding spasms. The bottom-of-the-rotation candidates (Milton, Kyle Lohse, Elizardo Ramirez) inspire nothing if not knee-weakening fear. The team will be hard-pressed not to rush Bailey (relax, we'll get to him in a second).

Totally non-helpful and semi-realistic suggestions:

1. Start worrying now about where their next run will come from. Offensively, they won't be anywhere near as soggy as the Astros (when, pray tell, will somebody in the 77001 zip code realize that Brad Ausmus hurts a team more with his bat than he helps it with his decent glove/arm and polite discourse with pitchers?). But some days they'll field a lineup that includes the eminently platoonable Scott Hatteberg, the roto-world-good/real-world-mediocre Brandon Phillips, the aforementioned Mr. Gonzalez and fluke-2006 supadupastar David Ross. Oh, and the pitcher, too. The Reds could really have used a big honkin' righty bat to play first base or left field, but the ship has long since sailed on all candidates fitting that description.

2. ... so take Dunn off the trade market, posthaste. I know Krivsky et al have yapped about the strikeouts, which Mr. Dunn provides in almost biblical abundance. I'm also aware that as a left fielder, Dunn is a mediocre first baseman. At the same time, the guy gets on base and still might have a 50-dinger season in him, regardless of whether sabermetric gurus no longer get all squishy downstairs when they ponder his power/patience mix.

3. The mayor of Cincinnati (Jerry Springer?) should pass a local ordinance barring any sports franchise in the area from hiring retread middle relievers. Stanton, David Weathers, Matt Belisle, Brian Shackelford, Todd Coffey, Rheal Cormier ... where does it end, man? Where does it end? It's fitting that the highest-upside guy in the group, lefty Bill Bray, is currently listed 14th on the Reds bullpen depth chart at MLB.com.

4. Force Ken Griffey Jr. from center field to right, even if it means that he'll play the 2007 with a sad little frown on his bedimpled mug. It's time for some tough love: At this juncture in his Hall of Fame career, he lacks the arm to play the position; his legs respond as well to the day-to-day pounding in center as fast-food napkins do to flamethrowers. To replace him, a platoon of Ryan Freel and Chris "Da Norf" Denorfia should work well enough.

5. I realize that as a citizen of the United States of America, super-prospect Bailey has rights -- "inalienable" ones, as they say in the biz. That said, the Reds must do everything within their power to protect this kid and his gilded right arm. I propose hiring a handful of Guy/Gal Fridays to accompany him during his every waking moment. They could shop for his groceries, brush his teeth, fend off fetchingly fertile groupies and confine him to small, windowless rooms free of pointy objects between starts. Think Purple Rain's Jerome, but heavily armed.

Odds of becoming the next Detroit Tigers: Not all that horrendous, assuming 100 percent health and an early arrival by Bailey. Is there a single National League team that looks even mildly intimidating right now? All AL Central teams not based in Missouri would be anointed the NL favorite should they mysteriously experience a Freaky Friday-ish league juxtaposition.

If the Reds somehow make it to October -- and, as in 2006, it will only take 80-something wins to claim the NL Central's pity berth -- their best-case scenario starting troika of Harang-Arroyo-Bailey matches up well against any other NL starting trio. Hey, stranger things have happened ... within the past two months, in case you weren't paying attention.

westofyou
12-16-2006, 12:39 PM
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I sense a pattern here from the "sports" writer from Maxim, that's a shotgun shot of a column, very 21st century.. "In yer face"

Milton mention however shows his in depth research on Krivskys tenure.

WMR
12-16-2006, 12:46 PM
Now this is the guy the post should have hired if they wanted to save their paper.

MartyFan
12-16-2006, 12:53 PM
I read the article this morning...like WOY said when he brought up Milton's contract he lost cred.

Also, does he really think the Central is going to be won with 80 some wins? I know the Cubs are still the Cubs but they have brought in a lot of firepower...depending on what the Cards do...If the Stros stop making DUMB trades they are dangerous...thing is, didn't a NL Central team win the series last year?

traderumor
12-16-2006, 01:02 PM
Yes, the Milton gaffe shows certain depth problems, but all of his other complaints are surface too. Maybe I should have pushed for the Baseball Prospectus subscription this year for Christmas. Not to mention he is dooming teams in December when there are likely still contracts to be signed and deals to be done. They don't release Street & Smith's in the winter for a reason (and they still give "what?" predictions).

RedsManRick
12-16-2006, 01:04 PM
I'd tear in to him if there weren't a lot of truths in that article. Of course it's going to be simplistic and a bit of hyperbole, but his 5 points?

1.) Yup, offense is going to be as big or bigger problem than pitching in 07
2.) You can't afford to trade Dunn now -- stop selling him and whining about Ks
3.) No more middle relievers -- especially old ones
4.) Junior to RF? Check!
5.) Don't screw up Bailey -- obvious, but yes

I've seen many articles which were far off base. Despite the tone, this is pretty much on.

pedro
12-16-2006, 01:17 PM
Well being that the author didn't suggest any solutions that would actually make the Reds better than they are at the momment (except the painfully obvious suggestion that KG be moved from CF) I'd have to say that the article was a waste of ones and zeros.

Just another poorly researched piece of sport writing clap trap.

westofyou
12-16-2006, 01:19 PM
Well being that the author didn't suggest any solutions that would actually make the Reds better than they are at the momment (except the painfully obvious suggestion that KG be moved from CF) I'd have to see that the article was a waste of ones and zeros.

Just another poorly researched piece of sport writing clap trap.

True, the piece could have been compiled by trolling RZ and compiling folks worries. Throw in a couple put downs and head slaps and you probably have the exact article he wrote on the Mariners and the Pirates, just with a different header and colored font.

SunDeck
12-16-2006, 01:21 PM
The dreaded sports doldrums of late autumn: the NCAA basketball season has not yet gotten into conference play, and the NFL wildcard races just don't seem worth writing about now that no one can watch any games on TV.

Redsland
12-16-2006, 02:19 PM
Milton mention however shows his in depth research...
That and calling Coffey a "retread." Belisle, too.

terminator
12-16-2006, 02:31 PM
I agree with some of his points but his writing style is atrocious. He comes off as an immature 13 year old. "As fast food napkins do to flamethrowers?" Is that what passes as idiomatic wit these days? Truly pathetic.

redsmetz
12-16-2006, 03:07 PM
I agree with some of his points but his writing style is atrocious. He comes off as an immature 13 year old. "As fast food napkins do to flamethrowers?" Is that what passes as idiomatic wit these days? Truly pathetic.

Paul Daugherty at his earliest worst was better than that.

It did occur to me he might have done his research on Redszone though.

And I'm not quite sure WK has ever actually talked about trading Dunner, strike outs or no.

remdog
12-16-2006, 03:20 PM
This guy is absolutely on the money-----Harang and Arroyo really need to do something about that facial foliage!

Rem

Ltlabner
12-16-2006, 03:23 PM
Factual errors, shallow comments (you gotta score runs....protect Bailey.....well duhhhh) and snyde comments. As some have said, read enough comments off of RZ and you can put together this story.

But, RMR is right, there is a kernal of truth in this article and, while very basic and shallow, his "suggestions" (move JR to right...again...duhhh) are technically good ideas.

But overall, not what I'd call brillant by any strech.

Kc61
12-16-2006, 04:06 PM
The quickest way to fix the Reds:

Add another good starter, a right handed bat, and move Griffey to right field.

And keep adding good prospects in the minors.

This writer could have saved a lot of words.

Johnny Footstool
12-16-2006, 04:07 PM
Assuming Les Rouges are general-managed with even the barest hint of competence over the next 12 months, they've got a narrow window for contention in the two or three seasons to follow.

He must have been reading RedsZone over the past few weeks. I think he owes me a royalty.

LoganBuck
12-16-2006, 04:23 PM
The quickest way to fix the Reds:

Add another good starter, a right handed bat, and move Griffey to right field.

And keep adding good prospects in the minors.

This writer could have saved a lot of words.

It really is that simple.

This guy did a hack job, but this same guy probably thinks the Cubs have done a fabulous job this offseason. Just wait for that article. I am still waiting to see a move that some other GM made that I think the Reds should have made. Stanton, and Gonzalez are not worth picking on Krivsky, given the current market, they are bargin bin shopping items. I like the Josh Hamilton pickup, and it showed some creativity. Chad Moeller and Bubba Crosby are different stories, total flotsum.

The question needs to be asked: What else do you expect from Wayne?

Matt700wlw
12-16-2006, 04:34 PM
The quickest way to fix the Reds:

Add another good starter, a right handed bat, and move Griffey to right field.

And keep adding good prospects in the minors.

This writer could have saved a lot of words.

Maybe he gets paid per word....

IslandRed
12-16-2006, 05:14 PM
One other thing that raised my eyebrow in the article:


He also chirped that Adam Dunn might have to go because he strikes out a lot

I'm not aware Krivsky has ever said any such thing. A number of people have predicted a Dunn trade based on connect-the-dots speculation, and there are occasional rumors that have all the substance of a light breeze, but that's it.

I have no doubt that the front office probably prefers more balanced hitters to the Three True Outcomes types, but I've seen no real evidence that it's the driving factor in the personnel decisions.

Handofdeath
12-16-2006, 05:29 PM
Maxim has a sports column? (cough) I mean, I have admired this man's work for a long time.

LoganBuck
12-16-2006, 05:39 PM
One other thing that raised my eyebrow in the article:



I'm not aware Krivsky has ever said any such thing. A number of people have predicted a Dunn trade based on connect-the-dots speculation, and there are occasional rumors that have all the substance of a light breeze, but that's it.

I have no doubt that the front office probably prefers more balanced hitters to the Three True Outcomes types, but I've seen no real evidence that it's the driving factor in the personnel decisions.

Krivsky has even said that Dunn is the teams best run producer, and power guy. I have heard or read him say this numerous times. He knows what Dunn is. Find me someone that doesn't want to see him strikeout less. To make the leap that he must be traded doesn't jive with what Wayne has said.

Superdude
12-16-2006, 06:43 PM
He lost some credibility when he called Coffey a retread, and he blasted away at our offense a bit more than necessary, but you have to agree with a lot of it.

Krusty
12-16-2006, 06:56 PM
Nothing like kicking a dog when it's down.

fearofpopvol1
12-16-2006, 09:06 PM
I think his main points hold a lot of truth despite his factual errors. However, when you title the article, "Quickest way to fix Reds: Cancel Wayne's World", that should be the focus. The only evidence he provided to back up why this should happen was the Kearns/Lopez trade and that Wayne hasn't "done" anything else since then (which I don't necessarily agree with at this point).

It's pretty hard to say get rid of the guy when Wayne hasn't been with the team for a full year and the team already produced a better record than the previous season.

Shaknb8k
12-16-2006, 11:38 PM
Im no Maxim writer but here are my Quickest Way to Fix the Reds:
1. Get big contacts off the books
2. Wait till the farm system starts to produce.
3. Sign stop-gaps to fill positions where prospects arent an option.

1. This plan should start producing around 2008 and be complete around 2009. The money saved on those contracts will go toward the big contract players Harang, Encarnacion, Phillips, Bray (if he becomes a closer) and maybe a few more players that are part of the long term plan that arent on the team yet.

2. Throw in some current prospects that will fill some other starting spots that wont be making a ton of money (Bailey, Votto, Cueto, Bruce could be close, Stubbs could be in the mix if he pans out).

3. Then the rest of the money goes towards short term contracts to fill in gaps of some of the other positions until you can promote a top prospect into that position.

This plan is being enforced but will take time. Krivsky cant get rid of Milton or Griffey's contracts so we will just have to wait for them to run out and Dunn will be traded before the 2008 season. Then step 2 takes time but i believe this past draft combined with the many 2007 draft top draft picks could bring the farm system toward the top of the league. And step 3 is already in full force with the Gonzo and Hatteberg signings.

Krivsky's plan cant include huge extreme long-term contracts unless it is a very special player and the farm system has to produce. Once these things are met then i believe the Reds will be in the playoff running year after year. But until then we will have to try and catch lightning-in-a-bottle with players like Ross and Hatteberg.

Once the farm system starts to produce then you trade those stop-gap players when the prospect is ready to take over. The Free Agent Market has to be a last resort (which i believe is why we signed Gonzo). The Reds have to aquire players by the Farm System then Trades and the last way is by FA because it creates those extreme long term contracts i talked about earlier.

I only hope Bob Cast. gives Krivsky enough time to make his plan work....but not more than enough time.

Hap
12-16-2006, 11:42 PM
Some of us are better writers as amateurs than this clown.

jbran1114
12-17-2006, 01:49 AM
Sportsline'S depth chart for Red's starting pitchers has Paul Wilson as their fifth starter. Nuff said.

GAC
12-18-2006, 09:04 PM
Milton mention however shows his in depth research on Krivskys tenure.

Noticed that right off the bat.

That and his remarks about Krivsky concerning Dunn may have to go.

I've never heard where Wayne has said that and when I asked Wayne about it at Redsfest he said that he has not intention to trade Dunn.

Purely amateur article.