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Jpup
12-16-2006, 10:25 PM
Braves Get:

Homer Bailey
Rheal Cormier
Todd Coffey

Reds Get:

Tim Hudson
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Adam LaRoche

Would you do it and do you think the Braves would?

pedro
12-16-2006, 10:27 PM
No, Hudson makes too much money.

Jpup
12-16-2006, 10:30 PM
No, Hudson makes too much money.

I think the Reds have it to pay.

Dracodave
12-16-2006, 10:32 PM
Braves Get:

Homer Bailey
Rheal Cormier
Todd Coffey

Reds Get:

Tim Hudson
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Adam LaRoche

Would you do it and do you think the Braves would?


Replace Bailey with Cueto or Wood and we have a deal. No offence but they don't get Bailey unless we get cash as well.

Jpup
12-16-2006, 10:34 PM
Replace Bailey with Cueto or Wood and we have a deal. No offence but they don't get Bailey unless we get cash as well.

You have to give up something to get LaRoche in the deal as well.

Degenerate39
12-16-2006, 10:38 PM
Nooooooooooooooooo

Shaknb8k
12-16-2006, 10:45 PM
No way....Hudson makes way too much money for the type of year he had last year. Salty is coming off a down year. LaRoche appears to be worth only a young back end of the bullpen arm on the market.

If Bailey is going to the braves then James, Salty, and one of those young SS they have in the system is a must. I want no part of Hudson's contract and im not high or LaRoche even if hes got his ADD under control.

Plus the Braves arent going to be asking the 2005 value of Hudson and Salty and not the 2006.

pedro
12-17-2006, 12:29 AM
I think the Reds have it to pay.

IIRC, Hudson is scheduled to make 32 million over the next 2 years. I just don't think he'll produce at a level that would make that good investment.

The_jbh
12-17-2006, 01:14 AM
Votto > LaRoche and i dont believe in aquiring a player to turn him around to another team...

im for trying to find a deal for Sal

Jpup
12-17-2006, 01:15 AM
IIRC, Hudson is scheduled to make 32 million over the next 2 years. I just don't think he'll produce at a level that would make that good investment.

maybe you could get the Braves to pick up some of the contract even if it took throwing in another "prospect."

Jpup
12-17-2006, 01:17 AM
Votto > LaRoche

What has Votto proven above AA? I think Votto will be a good player, but LaRoche is much better right now. That's not even being fair to Votto.

savafan
12-17-2006, 01:18 AM
Hudson's projected numbers at GABP:


Year Ag G W L WL% IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP ERA WHIP ActG
+-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
1999 23 21 10 5 .667 136.3 121 52 49 8 62 132 4 3.23 1.342 21
2000 24 32 13 9 .591 203.7 170 100 94 24 82 170 7 4.15 1.237 32
2001 25 35 16 9 .640 231.0 225 101 95 21 74 177 6 3.70 1.294 35
2002 26 34 18 8 .692 237.3 239 86 81 19 63 151 8 3.07 1.272 34
2003 27 34 18 8 .692 235.0 208 85 80 16 64 158 11 3.06 1.157 34
2004 28 27 13 7 .650 188.7 194 79 74 8 44 103 12 3.53 1.261 27
2005 29 29 12 8 .600 187.7 204 88 83 21 68 112 9 3.98 1.449 29
2006 30 35 10 13 .435 213.3 246 137 129 26 83 137 9 5.44 1.542 35
+-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
Totals 247 110 67 .621 1633.0 1607 728 685 143 540 1143 66 3.78 1.315 247

I'd rather have Milton.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 07:15 PM
ouch. new to the board and just saw this. That's a pretty horrible trade idea. Although, the idea of adding another catcher is pretty tempting...............

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 07:33 PM
I'd rather have Milton.

Too far Sava, too far.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 08:21 PM
I still think it's a good idea, if that counts. :D Hudson has 1 bad year and people say that he is done. I didn't realize he was making 16 million per the next 2 years, but if Atlanta paid part of that, say 10 of the 32 million, I would jump on it.

Tom Servo
12-17-2006, 08:24 PM
I still think it's a good idea, if that counts. :D
I'm suprised the general response, as I like all 3 of those Braves players. But I think we're all drinking the Homer = savior koolaid, and it tastes pretty sweet for now.

Aronchis
12-17-2006, 08:27 PM
Hudson isn't any savior and may be done as a good pitcher(short guy). You fall for it so easy.

IslandRed
12-17-2006, 09:00 PM
I just don't see it from the Braves' perspective. Trading Hudson and Laroche for minimal immediate help (they've already brought in some help for the bullpen) is a declaration that they're going to punt 2007 and use Bailey as the centerpiece of a retooling, and I don't think they're in that mindset.

As for our perspective, it's a net win on talent for us in the short term, even if Hudson is just average. The question is whether the timeframes of the players involved match where we are on the success cycle, and whether they influence that cycle enough to matter. That, I'm not so sure about. It's definitely a win-now move, but if it's not going to get us very far down the road to Serious World Series Contender, I might rather have Bailey's six cheap years.

I freely admit that I'm among the Bailey kool-aid drinkers also. The old adage "There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect" suggests that a team is better off dealing potential for proven performance. But if you follow that unfailingly, you'll never have good young pitching in the majors, which means you'll be paying full fare for your entire rotation. If the team can't afford to do that -- and most can't -- then sometimes you need to roll the dice on potential. Bailey's a guy I'm willing to roll on.

Sooner or later, it always comes down to a GM's ability to separate the jewels from the trading chips.

jojo
12-17-2006, 09:02 PM
What has Votto proven above AA? I think Votto will be a good player, but LaRoche is much better right now. That's not even being fair to Votto.

It's not really that important to prove anything above AA ball IMHO..... In some of his classic abstracts, Bill James has argued pretty forcefully that its not necesary to require players log extensive time at the AAA level. In fact he also argues as a basic truism, that the truly great players will reach the majors at a younger age than usual. James' opinions aside, its becoming more and more common for major league teams to promote their top prospects from AA to the big dance without any significant time logged AAA. Basically the AAA level is starting to resemble more of a holding tank for shuttling roster help (replacement level players and second tier prospects basically blocked at the major league level) than a true developmental step (at least for the true prospects)...

So here's why the proposed trade is a non-starter IMHO. It addresses two needs by trading/blocking in house solutions (Homer/Votto) that are cheaper with more upside than the two options that would come in return. Basically LaRoche projects as a league average first baseman (.282/.358/.483) who is valuable because he's cheap but who is going to get much more expensive during his approaching arb eligible years. Hudson is intriguing but very expensive as his contract is back loaded. He is going to get very expensive beyond next year-without a guarantee he will give you innings (he'll be 32 next season and his contract goes through what should be his decline years). Finally, first base is the easiest position on the field to solve via replacement level guys. Last year essentially supports this notion as the Reds got by pretty well from squeezing blood from the turnips at firstbase last season.... Signing C. Wilson does enough to address the Reds need at first for '07 to satisfy me and it doesn't require giving up anything potentially useful....

Now, all of that being said, the in-house solutions aren't going to be automatic ones for '07 so I understand the downside. Basically Votto has only become a bona fide prospect because he had a break out season (.319/.408/.547) last year in a traditionally pitcher dominant league. Basically he still has things to prove and probably is not ready to make the jump in '07. Krivsky's statements about Homer needing seasoning in AAA basically is lip service, I think, because there is a lack of consensus within the organisation regarding Homer's command. They are basically hedging their bets. He's probably going to be on the 25 man roster no later than August.

So IMHO, I'd frame this particular proposal as: "would you rather trade cheap/in-house but win tomorrow for expensive and try to win now?". I'd prefer the in-house for these two particular needs.

Anyway, thats the world according to me for what its worth....

PuffyPig
12-17-2006, 09:10 PM
Bad time to get Hudson, bad time to trade Bailey.

Small market teams don't get better trading players like Bailey for players like Hudson. It's the other way around.

jojo
12-17-2006, 09:22 PM
IIRC, Hudson is scheduled to make 32 million over the next 2 years. I just don't think he'll produce at a level that would make that good investment.

I know it was just a typo but actually Hudson is scheduled to make $19M over the next two years. Your point is still valid....the Reds would be on the hook for alot of money over his total contract:

Hudson:
07:$6M,
08:$13M,
09:$13M,
10:$12M mutual option

To me the issues with him are completely related to injury risk and payroll. If he's healthy and back to normal, he is projected by Pecota (they're pretty good with pitchers) to be a solid guy through his contract years. He's not the dominant guy of his early years in Oakland but he is still an extreme groundball pitcher with very solid stuff that should translate well in GABP IMHO.... Its all money and risk though...

pedro
12-17-2006, 09:50 PM
I know it was just a typo but actually Hudson is scheduled to make $19M over the next two years. Your point is still valid....the Reds would be on the hook for alot of money over his total contract:

Hudson:
07:$6M,
08:$13M,
09:$13M,
10:$12M mutual option

To me the issues with him are completely related to injury risk and payroll. If he's healthy and back to normal, he is projected by Pecota (they're pretty good with pitchers) to be a solid guy through his contract years. He's not the dominant guy of his early years in Oakland but he is still an extreme groundball pitcher with very solid stuff that should translate well in GABP IMHO.... Its all money and risk though...

ok, so it's not as bad as I thought. I'd sure like to have him next year for 6 million, but those last two years are killers.

AdamDunn
12-17-2006, 09:57 PM
Bad time to get Hudson, bad time to trade Bailey.

Small market teams don't get better trading players like Bailey for players like Hudson. It's the other way around.

AMEN... this isn't an offense on you jpup, but I think that trade would be absolutely horrible for us.
1) Bailey = Savior (at least for now, I'm afraid he might turn into a Josh Beckett).
2) Salty is coming off a horrible year and has much to prove to come back and become the player everyone thought he was going to be last year.
3) I think Bailey will be a better pitcher than Hudson when he comes up to stay (probably not this year, but the next) and will be cheaper and stay longer.

indy_dave00
12-18-2006, 03:17 AM
I'll take my chances on Homer Bailey. Fifteen years from now I'd hate to see John Smoltz acquired for Doyle Alexander comments as Bailey becomes a long time star in Atlanta.