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View Full Version : Blue Jays shopping Alex Rios for a starter



redsfan4445
12-17-2006, 10:06 AM
Since the BlueJays put alot of money down on Wells, they are now shopping Alex Rios for a starter.. he is young and a power hitter..i would love to see him in CF with JR in RF..
http://www.prosportsdaily.com/mlb/blue-jays/rumors.html

Wonder if they would take Milton if we paid half his salary along with another pitcher Cormier?? for Rios??? or even a prospect..not named Bailey!!

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 10:36 AM
No way Toronto moves Rios for Milton.

Rios has lots of value as he is young, cheap, and good. Milton is the exact opposite of that. Plus Riccardi has said in the past that obtaining Milton makes no sense for the Jays as they play in a homerun park and Milton is a homerun pitcher.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 12:06 PM
I would immediately offer Arroyo for Rios and a halfway decent minor league pitcher.

pedro
12-17-2006, 12:50 PM
I would immediately offer Arroyo for Rios and a halfway decent minor league pitcher.

There is no way to justify trading starting pitching at this juncture IMO.

dunner13
12-17-2006, 12:52 PM
Prospects is about all we have to offer as far as pitching. If we could get the blue jays to go for a package centered around wood, but they can probably get alot more for rios.

MrCinatit
12-17-2006, 01:11 PM
It is rather frustrating to see oportunities like this, but to know we have little chance because of a lack of young trading chips, thanks to years upon years of scouting and minor league abuse. Thanks Jimbo, thanks Marge, thanks Dano, thanks Carl.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 01:17 PM
There is no way to justify trading starting pitching at this juncture IMO.

This team isn't going anywhere with or without Arroyo. I'd rather have the future superstar than 2 more years of Arroyo.

That is, if Toronto would do that.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 01:31 PM
yep, Rios is a stud, and there's no chance this team is in the running.

Now........just sayin, but do you wonder if a combo of Felipe and Elizardo would've worked? Just throwing that out.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 01:38 PM
yep, Rios is a stud, and there's no chance this team is in the running.

Now........just sayin, but do you wonder if a combo of Felipe and Elizardo would've worked? Just throwing that out.

not a chance. EZ has very little value at all IMO.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 01:40 PM
Oleny says the Mets could deal Miledge and Heilman. I doubt the Reds could match that.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 01:41 PM
Oleny says the Mets could deal Miledge and Heilman. I doubt the Reds could match that.

Homer and Votto, but I don't know if I would do that.

Falls City Beer
12-17-2006, 01:43 PM
I like Rios and everything, but let's not go crazy over a bat.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 01:45 PM
Homer and Votto, but I don't know if I would do that.

Sorry....the Reds could match, but at a severe expense. Rios is under control for 4 more years, so that comes into play.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 01:47 PM
Sorry....the Reds could match, but at a severe expense. Rios is under control for 4 more years, so that comes into play.

he would look great in the Reds outfield though.:thumbup:

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 01:49 PM
If not EZRam (though I do disagree with you about his value), I really think that a combo of Felipe and EZ, or Milton, or Dumatrait may have worked.

All of this, of course, doesn't matter however, since the main piece of that offer is the new secondbaseman in Washington.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 01:50 PM
I would say Arroyo has way more value than Rios.

He is cheap for the next 2 seasons and just had a fantastic season. He's worth a pennate to somebody. If we trade Arroyo right now, Krivsky needs to bring in a kings ransom of talent that could really help set up the future for the Reds. Rios doesn't do that. Getting Rios for Arroyo hurts us right now, and doesn't do a whole lot to make us a great team in the future. He may be under control for 4 years, but 3 of them are going to be pretty expensive.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 01:53 PM
If not EZRam (though I do disagree with you about his value), I really think that a combo of Felipe and EZ, or Milton, or Dumatrait may have worked.



Lopez didn't have the value to bring in a guy like Rios. They wanted pitching, and of the list of Milton, EZ, Dumatrait wouldn't be exactly what they are looking for. Those guys are 4-5 starters at best right now. Toronto has the same kind of mixed bag of junk, they want good, established pitching.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 01:54 PM
I would say Arroyo has way more value than Rios.

He is cheap for the next 2 seasons and just had a fantastic season. He's worth a pennate to somebody. If we trade Arroyo right now, Krivsky needs to bring in a kings ransom of talent that could really help set up the future for the Reds. Rios doesn't do that. Getting Rios for Arroyo hurts us right now, and doesn't do a whole lot to make us a great team in the future. He may be under control for 4 years, but 3 of them are going to be pretty expensive.

What about Adam Lind, Alex Rios, and Ricky Romero for Bronson Arroyo and Chris Denorfia?

Lind 23 years old

2006

AAA Syracuse .367/.415/.600/1.015
Toronto (60 ABs) .394/.496/.596/1.092

He seems like a more sure thing than Votto although he is more of a DH than a 1st baseman.

fewfirstchoice
12-17-2006, 01:57 PM
Heres what I would do:

Trade Arroyo and Votto for Rios

Trade Dunn for Penny and Ethier

Sign Suppan to a 3 year 27 mil. deal

IF the Reds can somehow work this magic out it would give the Reds a strong lineup that could compete.

SP:
Harang
Penny
Suppan
Lohse
Milton
This is a better than average rotation and it would give Cincy a chance to win.
Lineup:
1B Hatte
2b Phillips
SS A. Gon.
3B E.E.
LF Ethier
CF Rios
RF JR.
C Ross

NOw thats a solid lineup if they could somehow pull it off.I see no reason it couldnt work either.The trades proposed works on both sides and the money would be right aswell,maybe a little more but not much.So how do you guys see it,think it could happen.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 01:58 PM
What about Adam Lind, Alex Rios, and Ricky Romero for Bronson Arroyo and Chris Denorfia?

That would be pretty difficult to turn down. We could then trade Votto (or Lind) for some good pitching.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 01:59 PM
I would say Arroyo has way more value than Rios.

He is cheap for the next 2 seasons and just had a fantastic season. He's worth a pennate to somebody. If we trade Arroyo right now, Krivsky needs to bring in a kings ransom of talent that could really help set up the future for the Reds. Rios doesn't do that. Getting Rios for Arroyo hurts us right now, and doesn't do a whole lot to make us a great team in the future. He may be under control for 4 years, but 3 of them are going to be pretty expensive.

But unless the FO gets motivated, those 2 cheap seasons from Arroyo will result in more disappointment.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 02:01 PM
That would be pretty difficult to turn down. We could then trade Votto (or Lind) for some good pitching.

That is my thought as well, but I expect the Reds to keep Arroyo and then his value goes down or he will walk away leaving the Reds empty handed. They need to either trade him or sign him to a longer deal during next season.

fewfirstchoice
12-17-2006, 02:02 PM
Rios for Arroyo would be a great trade talent wise.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:04 PM
Heres what I would do:

Trade Arroyo and Votto for Rios

Trade Dunn for Penny and Ethier

Sign Suppan to a 3 year 27 mil. deal

IF the Reds can somehow work this magic out it would give the Reds a strong lineup that could compete.

SP:
Harang
Penny
Suppan
Lohse
Milton
This is a better than average rotation and it would give Cincy a chance to win.
Lineup:
1B Hatte
2b Phillips
SS A. Gon.
3B E.E.
LF Ethier
CF Rios
RF JR.
C Ross

NOw thats a solid lineup if they could somehow pull it off.I see no reason it couldnt work either.The trades proposed works on both sides and the money would be right aswell,maybe a little more but not much.So how do you guys see it,think it could happen.

You're going to trade Votto and Arroyo for Rios? That's ridiculous.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 02:04 PM
Rios for Arroyo would be a great trade talent wise.

like AK said, you have to get more with the pitching market the way it is. In a normal year, I would trade them straight up, but the Reds have to get a haul in return if they trade what little pitching they have. Romero would be a decent piece.

I was just glancing over Romero's stats, he appears to be a pretty good guy, but had some trouble in AA at the age of 21 last season. His numbers in A ball were very good. It might be a little early to judge on him.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:07 PM
Rios is ok and all but it just goes to show how seduced some fans are by guys just b/c they hit .300 once.

The guys got a lifetime OPS of .763 and his OPS post all star game last year was .708.

I'm sorry but this man love for the guy based on one hot half season is ludicrous.

fewfirstchoice
12-17-2006, 02:08 PM
Do I want to trade both to get Rios no,but I think that is what it will take to get him.I could see the Jays throwing in a prospect aswell but it will take a deal something like that to get Rios.I just say you have to get Rios if you can for Arroyo,especially if tis straight up.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:08 PM
Rios for Arroyo would be a great trade talent wise.

for the blue jays.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 02:10 PM
Lopez didn't have the value to bring in a guy like Rios. They wanted pitching, and of the list of Milton, EZ, Dumatrait wouldn't be exactly what they are looking for. Those guys are 4-5 starters at best right now. Toronto has the same kind of mixed bag of junk, they want good, established pitching.

Toronto wants a 4th starter. You telling me that none of those guys would work? Also, I'm talking Felipe because it would address a team need for Toronto. Their middle IF is awful. Aaron Hill, Russ Adams, ROYCE CLAYTON, John McDonald and Jason Smith..................................

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 02:12 PM
Rios is ok and all but it just goes to show how seduced some fans are by guys just b/c they hit .300 once.

The guys got a lifetime OPS of .763 and his OPS post all star game last year was .708.

I'm sorry but this man love for the guy based on one hot half season is ludicrous.

The love for Rios comes from the fact that he's always been a highly regarded player, and last year he started to show that he was finally getting IT. It's not like he was a nobody who just came from nowhere.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:13 PM
That would be pretty difficult to turn down. We could then trade Votto (or Lind) for some good pitching.

Lind would be replacing Rios, so I don't think getting both of them is feasible.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 02:14 PM
Toronto wants a 4th starter. You telling me that none of those guys would work? Also, I'm talking Felipe because it would address a team need for Toronto. Their middle IF is awful. Aaron Hill, Russ Adams, ROYCE CLAYTON, John McDonald and Jason Smith..................................

They weren't in a position last year to trade Rios, but you do have a good point about their MIF. They don't have anything too promising in the minors either. This might be a time to unload Brandon Phillips for a nice return.

fewfirstchoice
12-17-2006, 02:15 PM
Rios is a young stud and in the long run I say he ends up having a better big league career than Bronson.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:15 PM
The love for Rios comes from the fact that he's always been a highly regarded player, and last year he started to show that he was finally getting IT. It's not like he was a nobody who just came from nowhere.

What he said.

And he had a staff infection that knocked him out for a LONG time ater the all-star game.

Plus, his defense (esp his arm) is top shelf.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:17 PM
The love for Rios comes from the fact that he's always been a highly regarded player, and last year he started to show that he was finally getting IT. It's not like he was a nobody who just came from nowhere.

So he's a prospect who may or may not actually suck? Whoop dee whoo. He sure ain't worth Arroyo alone, let alone Arroyo and Votto.

Oh, and BTW, in SEVEN minor league seasons Rios had an OPS of .736 and hit a TOTAL of 20 HR's. Yep, the guys a stud.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:23 PM
So he's a prospect who may or may not actually suck? Whoop dee whoo. He sure ain't worth Arroyo alone, let alone Arroyo and Votto.

Oh, and BTW, in SEVEN minor league seasons Rios had an OPS of .736 and hit a TOTAL of 20 HR's. Yep, the guys a stud.

Do some history on Arroyo and let us know what he did before last year. That 2006 4.51 era looks spectacular. "Regression to the Mean" could be the theme to his 2007 highlight video.

For small-market teams, projection is the number one skill you need. Rios, after playing 7 minor league seasons and 3 in the majors, is still only going to be 26 next year. Which means he is still only out of college for 3 years, if he went to college. He is a defensive stud and a budding star at the plate. 2 more years of Arroyo while languishing in 4th place doesn't really excite me.

fewfirstchoice
12-17-2006, 02:24 PM
This is why I love these message boards we all state our own oppinions and play so nice together.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 02:28 PM
So he's a prospect who may or may not actually suck? Whoop dee whoo. He sure ain't worth Arroyo alone, let alone Arroyo and Votto.

Oh, and BTW, in SEVEN minor league seasons Rios had an OPS of .736 and hit a TOTAL of 20 HR's. Yep, the guys a stud.

It was never my intention to move Arroyo for him, so don't pin that on me.

Nice of you to try to use HRs as a statistical indicator on a guy who is a balance of speed and power, and not merely just a masher.

I'll take a 25/25 guy who hits for average and plays great D over a 50 hr .220 hitter anyday of the week.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:29 PM
Do some history on Arroyo and let us know what he did before last year. That 2006 4.51 era looks spectacular. "Regression to the Mean" could be the theme to his 2007 highlight video.

For small-market teams, projection is the number one skill you need. Rios, after playing 7 minor league seasons and 3 in the majors, is still only going to be 26 next year. Which means he is still only out of college for 3 years, if he went to college. He is a defensive stud and a budding star at the plate. 2 more years of Arroyo while languishing in 4th place doesn't really excite me.

Even if Arroyo regresses from his 2006 numbers a league average starter signed at 3 million a year is light years more valuable than a guy who is quickly approaching arbtritration with no solid track record of success in either the minor or major leagues and exactly one half season of decent, not spectactular, baseball in the majors under his belt.

His ERA in 2005 aside, Arroyo has a had three solid years of starting under his belt.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:32 PM
Even if Arroyo regresses from his 2006 numbers a league average starter signed at 3 million a year is light years more valuable than a guy who is quickly approaching arbtritration with no solid track record of success in either the minor or major leagues and exactly one half season of decent, not spectactular, baseball in the majors under his belt.

His ERA in 2005 aside, Arroyo has a had three solid years of starting under his belt.

If WK dealt Arroyo for Rios, there is a better shot of Rios being here when this team is in contention than Arroyo if the trade wasn't made.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:34 PM
It was never my intention to move Arroyo for him, so don't pin that on me.

Nice of you to try to use HRs as a statistical indicator on a guy who is a balance of speed and power, and not merely just a masher.

I'll take a 25/25 guy who hits for average and plays great D over a 50 hr .220 hitter anyday of the week.


Ah, there it is, the back handed slam at Dunn. I sensed it coming.

Rios stole 44 bases in 7 years in the minors. Super. Just about any dude in the majors can steal 15 bases a year. BTW, Dunn has more career stolen bases than Rios, with a better success rate.

Get back to me when Rios actually does any of the things that for which you guys are touting him. He's never hit 20 HR's on any level.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 02:35 PM
I'll take a 25/25 guy who hits for average and plays great D over a 50 hr .220 hitter anyday of the week.

That's a pretty short-sighted way of looking at it. There's a lot more factors than HRs, batting average, and SBs in the equation.

UC_Ken
12-17-2006, 02:36 PM
We don't have the pitching to deal for Rios. However we should look at a three way deal with Dunn going somewhere for pitching and that pitching going to Toronto. I'd rather have Rios and his 850 OPS than Dunn and his 900 OPS plus pitiful defense.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 02:37 PM
That's a pretty short-sighted way of looking at it. There's a lot more factors than HRs, batting average, and SBs in the equation.


Such as triples, doubles, defense, situational hitting, and contract?

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 02:38 PM
We don't have the pitching to deal for Rios. However we should look at a three way deal with Dunn going somewhere for pitching and that pitching going to Toronto. I'd rather have Rios and his 850 OPS than Dunn and his 900 OPS plus pitiful defense.

OK this really isn't a Dunn vs. Rios argument.

It's deciding the value of Rios and if there is a match with toronto in terms of talent. Both teams are looking for pitching, so I have difficulty seeing a trade working here.

UC_Ken
12-17-2006, 02:39 PM
OK this really isn't a Dunn vs. Rios argument.

It's deciding the value of Rios and if there is a match with toronto in terms of talent. Both teams are looking for pitching, so I have difficulty seeing a trade working here.

That is why I suggested a three way deal.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:40 PM
Ah, there it is, the back handed slam at Dunn. I sensed it coming.

Rios stole 44 bases in 7 years in the minors. Super. Just about any dude in the majors can steal 15 bases a year. BTW, Dunn has more career stolen bases than Rios, with a better success rate.

Get back to me when Rios actually does any of the things that for which you guys are touting him. He's never hit 20 HR's on any level.

Dunn has 4 more career SBs in well over double the games played. Excellent statistical analysis.

Again...it's all about projection. I'll try and remember to refresh this thread when Rios explodes this season.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 02:40 PM
Toronto wants a 4th starter. You telling me that none of those guys would work?

Well I can tell you, there is few people on this board that would find that group good 4-5 starters. Milton is proven garbage, Dumatriat can't get AAA hitters out, and Ramirez is a bit of a mystery. he pitched well for awhile, but then he got misused and injured. It's hard to know what you can expect out of EZ.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 02:42 PM
That is why I suggested a three way deal.

What team is looking to give up enough pitching to cover both Dunn and Rios?

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 02:43 PM
That is why I suggested a three way deal.


Genius! Here it is.......

Dunn to the Angels.

Ervin Santana to the Jays

Rios and Shields to the Reds.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:43 PM
OK this really isn't a Dunn vs. Rios argument.

It's deciding the value of Rios and if there is a match with toronto in terms of talent. Both teams are looking for pitching, so I have difficulty seeing a trade working here.

The difference is that Toronto, somehow, has the financial flexibility to make themselves beter immediately. Cincy, either through poor ownership or worse financial status, cannot. Therefore, I would rather deal Arroyo before he comes crashing down. True he is the 2nd best pitcher on the team. But when your #3 is Milton, then you could have Johan as your #2 and it wouldn't matter in the slightest.

If Arroyo gives us an extremely cheap 2007-2008 of 35 wins and a 3.00 era, will it really matter? Will this team really be in the race, if the 2007 offseason is filled with more over the hill garbage?

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:45 PM
Genius! Here it is.......

Dunn to the Angels.

Ervin Santana to the Jays

Rios and Shields to the Reds.

Like it, though then they couldn't even field a team next year. Unless, of course, they move to an all reliever pitching staff.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:45 PM
Dunn has 4 more career SBs in well over double the games played. Excellent statistical analysis.

Again...it's all about projection. I'll try and remember to refresh this thread when Rios explodes this season.

and a career OPS lead of over 130 points.

ANYWAY, good luck with that. I'll be waiting with baited breath.....

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 02:47 PM
and a career OPS lead of over 130 points.

ANYWAY, good luck with that. I'll be waiting with baited breath.....


Grab a mint.

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:48 PM
The difference is that Toronto, somehow, has the financial flexibility to make themselves beter immediately. Cincy, either through poor ownership or worse financial status, cannot. Therefore, I would rather deal Arroyo before he comes crashing down. True he is the 2nd best pitcher on the team. But when your #3 is Milton, then you could have Johan as your #2 and it wouldn't matter in the slightest.

If Arroyo gives us an extremely cheap 2007-2008 of 35 wins and a 3.00 era, will it really matter? Will this team really be in the race, if the 2007 offseason is filled with more over the hill garbage?

and yet that dude with the career OPS of .763 is really going to put us over the top in the abscence of of one of the two decent starters the Reds have? I don't buy it.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 02:48 PM
Like it, though then they couldn't even field a team next year. Unless, of course, they move to an all reliever pitching staff.


Why not? They'd still have the same starters they have now, but they would have added a legitimate closer.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 02:50 PM
The difference is that Toronto, somehow, has the financial flexibility to make themselves beter immediately. Cincy, either through poor ownership or worse financial status, cannot. Therefore, I would rather deal Arroyo before he comes crashing down. True he is the 2nd best pitcher on the team. But when your #3 is Milton, then you could have Johan as your #2 and it wouldn't matter in the slightest.

If Arroyo gives us an extremely cheap 2007-2008 of 35 wins and a 3.00 era, will it really matter? Will this team really be in the race, if the 2007 offseason is filled with more over the hill garbage?

I have no problem sending Arroyo out right now, but it better be for a huge return. He is one of the few guys on the Reds with loads of value. On the open market he owuld be getting 15M+. He has incredible value, so if he is dealt, it better be in a franchise altering move, not in a move to simply wave the white flag.

And milton is hardly the number 3. Lohse is a better pitcher, and I bet a guy like Belisle could post better numbers than him.

Edd Roush
12-17-2006, 02:53 PM
Why not? They'd still have the same starters they have now, but they would have added a legitimate closer.


What good is a legitimate closer when you will never have a lead going into the 9th inning?

pedro
12-17-2006, 02:54 PM
Rios is a young stud and in the long run I say he ends up having a better big league career than Bronson.

I bet Joey Votto has a better career than Alex Rios. His minor league numbers sure seem to project that.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:56 PM
and a career OPS lead of over 130 points.

ANYWAY, good luck with that. I'll be waiting with baited breath.....

I was just responding to your mentioning of Dunn's 4 SB lead over Rios. No mention of OPS.

But I brought this up in another thread...I love the spinning of any posting related to Adam Dunn and, to some extent, Arroyo as well.

Does no one care that Dunn's numbers are sliding? Does no one care that "regression to the mean", one of everyone's favorite sayings on this board, is a great was to describe Arroyo?

Dunn costs MILLIONS more than Rios. I guess that doesn't matter.

Dunn is a sloth in the OF while Rios is a pretty good fielder, at the very least.

Dunn had 40 HRs last year and a SLG of .490. Rios had 17 HRs and a SLG of .516. I guess Rios doesn't need to hit even 20 HRs to match the likes of 40 HR per year hitters.


Let's just try and look at things in a balanced way. My first thought was that Arroyo would be a good match. I didn't bring this into the Dunn realm, but since it happened anyway, I felt that it was my duty to respond.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:58 PM
and yet that dude with the career OPS of .763 is really going to put us over the top in the abscence of of one of the two decent starters the Reds have? I don't buy it.

The guy with the 2006 OPS higher than Dunn's would help since Dunn is the savior, it seems. But I guess it doesn't matter.

In 3 years he will help more than Arroyo, after WK and Bob start crying about money.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 02:58 PM
I bet Joey Votto has a better career than Alex Rios. His minor league numbers sure seem to project that.

Having both would be pretty cool.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 03:03 PM
I was just responding to your mentioning of Dunn's 4 SB lead over Rios. No mention of OPS.

But I brought this up in another thread...I love the spinning of any posting related to Adam Dunn and, to some extent, Arroyo as well.

Does no one care that Dunn's numbers are sliding? Does no one care that "regression to the mean", one of everyone's favorite sayings on this board, is a great was to describe Arroyo?

Dunn costs MILLIONS more than Rios. I guess that doesn't matter.

Dunn is a sloth in the OF while Rios is a pretty good fielder, at the very least.

Dunn had 40 HRs last year and a SLG of .490. Rios had 17 HRs and a SLG of .516. I guess Rios doesn't need to hit even 20 HRs to match the likes of 40 HR per year hitters.


Let's just try and look at things in a balanced way. My first thought was that Arroyo would be a good match. I didn't bring this into the Dunn realm, but since it happened anyway, I felt that it was my duty to respond.

Even when Arroyo regresses to the mean, he's still a valuable starter. In the NL, he shouldn't slide much further to the 4.00 ERA level. Even with a year like that he would still have huge value.

If Rios regresses it could get very ugly for him.

pedro
12-17-2006, 03:06 PM
The guy with the 2006 OPS higher than Dunn's would help since Dunn is the savior, it seems. But I guess it doesn't matter.

In 3 years he will help more than Arroyo, after WK and Bob start crying about money.

And after that 3rd year he'll be a FA.

I wasn't the one who brought Dunn into the discussion either.

All I'm saying is that Rios minor league track record doesn't really project to crap and all he's done in the majors is manage to hit .360 for one 2 month stretch early last season. Hey, Clint barmes hit .375 last July, maybe we should trade for him too?

Falls City Beer
12-17-2006, 03:06 PM
There are some really bad ideas in this thread.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 03:08 PM
/thread.

Rios will turn out to be an all-star within 2 years. He won't accomplish it on the Reds roster.

pedro
12-17-2006, 03:09 PM
/thread.

Rios will turn out to be an all-star within 2 years. He won't accomplish it on the Reds roster.

I bet he doesn't even OPS .800 in 2007.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 03:21 PM
I bet he doesn't even OPS .800 in 2007.


I bet Dunn doesn't even avg. 240 in 2007

mth123
12-17-2006, 03:21 PM
I'm a little more optimistic about Rios than many on here. I'd offer Lohse and a minor leaguer. I'd probably start with Pelland or Dumatrait but I'd go as high as Wood on the prospect list. No Harang, Arroyo or Bailey.

That would give the Reds some payroll room and make Freel completely expendable.

As tight as the pitching market is, I'm not sure they'll get much more. The Marlins or Cubs could be the most likely to make a better offer. I could see a Rios for Penny deal going down as well.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 03:24 PM
/thread.

Rios will turn out to be an all-star within 2 years. He won't accomplish it on the Reds roster.

He was an all-star this year.

Handofdeath
12-17-2006, 03:26 PM
I would really hesitate to trade Arroyo. Yes, he misses Boston and all that the Red Sox can offer that the Reds can't. A full stadium at each game , an organization that spends money, and actual hope for the playoffs each year. But, two years down the road who's to say the Sox have a place for him? It is presumptious to think he'll play out his contract and just go back to Boston and pitch again. I say keep him. He was one of the Top 10 pitchers in the NL this past season and is now reaching his prime as a pitcher. It's possible that with more time he will grow to like Cincy more and will achieve even greater success as a pitcher. He is a definite Cy Young candidate next year IMO and he most certainly enjoys pitching against the opposing pitcher as opposed to a DH. As long as the Reds are talking a long term deal with Harang, why not at least approach Arroyo about one as well?

pedro
12-17-2006, 03:31 PM
I bet Dunn doesn't even avg. 240 in 2007

This doesn't have anything to do with Dunn. This whole discussion has been based on someone else's argument that the Reds should trade Bronson Arroyo and possibly Joey Votto to get a guy with a lifetime OPS of .763.

Your tossing batting average into the argument just goes to show how overrated it is as an indicator of a players offensive worth as having a good BA the first half of last year is really the only thing Rios has ever done in his professional career. Color me unimpressed with both Rios and most of the "analysis" and "projections" going on in this thread.

Would Rios be a decent pick up for the Reds? Sure. But not at the prices suggested by a lot of folks here.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 03:33 PM
He was an all-star this year.

oops. oversight.

was Dunn?

Highlifeman21
12-17-2006, 03:34 PM
I bet Dunn doesn't even avg. 240 in 2007

You may be right about Dunn hitting below a .240 AVG in 2007, but the safe bet is that Dunn out OPS's Rios by a landslide.

pedro
12-17-2006, 03:35 PM
oops. oversight.

was Dunn?


Being an all star means exactly squat. the fans vote for all stars and by the analysis being bandied around this thread I'd have to say that that metric, along with batting average, is a poor method of evaluating a players worth.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 03:36 PM
You may be right about Dunn hitting below a .240 AVG in 2007, but the safe bet is that Dunn out OPS's Rios by a landslide.

Why? Rios out OPSed Dunn last year. And outslugged him, with 22 less HRs.

pedro
12-17-2006, 03:41 PM
Why? Rios out OPSed Dunn last year. And outslugged him, with 22 less HRs.

Because Dunn played well below his career norms and Rios played well above his. But again, this isn't about Dunn, he was only brought into the argument by folks who don't have the evidence to back up their original premise that Rios was worth Arroyo and thought they could cover up their tracks by changing the subject.

I think a lot of you read the leader boards in the in the newspaper and saw Rios among the league leaders in hitting pre allstar break last year and now have a woody for a player that they know little to nothing about in all reality.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 03:41 PM
Being an all star means exactly squat. the fans vote for all stars and by the analysis being bandied around this thread I'd have to say that that metric, along with batting average, is a poor method of evaluating a players worth.

I believe Rios was named to the team and not voted.

And whether or not a lot of people want to believe it, BA does have at least an inkling of worth in the game today. It does make up a significant part of OBP, the mecca of evaluating players.

Falls City Beer
12-17-2006, 03:42 PM
I think this Arroyo for Rios talk is interesting--as Rios is not totally unlike WM Pena--little more in the OB department, little less in the raw power realm.

He really doesn't project to just "blow up" as some have it. His skill set is limited and unless he starts taking roids, his power, at age 25, is unlikely to go through the roof and stay there. Good guy to have, I imagine, but I can see him going all supersub in a season or two. I sure as hell wouldn't give up Bailey or Arroyo for a bat like his.

Highlifeman21
12-17-2006, 03:47 PM
Why? Rios out OPSed Dunn last year. And outslugged him, with 22 less HRs.

.349/.516/.865 in 128 G vs. .365/.490/.855 in 160 G.

Advantage Dunn, due to 32 more games played.

I would be very surprised if over that 32 game margin, Rios didn't return to his career mean or fall below that line.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 03:50 PM
Because Dunn played well below his career norms and Rios played well above his. But again, this isn't about Dunn, he was only brought into the argument by folks who don't have the evidence to back up their original premise that Rios was worth Arroyo and thought they could cover up their tracks by changing the subject.

I think a lot of you read the leader boards in the in the newspaper and saw Rios among the league leaders in hitting pre allstar break last year and now have a woody for a player that they know little to nothing about in all reality.

I know Rios was an uber-prospect throughout his career.

I know he was quite impressive las season, his 3rd in the majors.

I know he has a cannon for an arm and his glove is nothing to sneeze at either.

I know that he is a budding 5 tool talent.

You can liken him to some of these names: Brett Myers (2004), Jeremy Bonderman (2005), Justin Morneau (2005) and David Ortiz (2002).

What was the worth of these guys at the year stated? Rios has been in the league for 3 years. He has basically as many better than good years in baseball as Arroyo. This move is all about projection. Rios, IMO, will have much greater worth than Arroyo over the next 2 years. And then the Reds would have him under control for 2 more.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 03:54 PM
.349/.516/.865 in 128 G vs. .365/.490/.855 in 160 G.

Advantage Dunn, due to 32 more games played.

I would be very surprised if over that 32 game margin, Rios didn't return to his career mean or fall below that line.

RIOS HAS NO CAREER MEAN! That's like saying that Morneau played over his head this season. When you are a top flight prospect and start to breakout, that is what is expected.

And no advantage to Dunn due to games played. Rios outperformed Dunn last season, end of story.

Falls City Beer
12-17-2006, 04:00 PM
Anything's possible--pitchers are volatile commodities, and it's highly likely that Arroyo is a rag-armed has-been in two seasons. In fact, I could easily see that.
But to trade the Arroyo of right now for Rios is to buy a $100 bond for $200.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 04:09 PM
Anything's possible--pitchers are volatile commodities, and it's highly likely that Arroyo is a rag-armed has-been in two seasons. In fact, I could easily see that.
But to trade the Arroyo of right now for Rios is to buy a $100 bond for $200.

A lot of teams who have no shot trade for the future. It's called reality.

pedro
12-17-2006, 04:12 PM
I know Rios was an uber-prospect throughout his career.

I know he was quite impressive las season, his 3rd in the majors.

I know he has a cannon for an arm and his glove is nothing to sneeze at either.

I know that he is a budding 5 tool talent.

You can liken him to some of these names: Brett Myers (2004), Jeremy Bonderman (2005), Justin Morneau (2005) and David Ortiz (2002).

What was the worth of these guys at the year stated? Rios has been in the league for 3 years. He has basically as many better than good years in baseball as Arroyo. This move is all about projection. Rios, IMO, will have much greater worth than Arroyo over the next 2 years. And then the Reds would have him under control for 2 more.


I'm sorry but IMO you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 04:13 PM
I'm sorry but IMO you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

OK.

pedro
12-17-2006, 04:17 PM
RIOS HAS NO CAREER MEAN! That's like saying that Morneau played over his head this season. When you are a top flight prospect and start to breakout, that is what is expected.

And no advantage to Dunn due to games played. Rios outperformed Dunn last season, end of story.


and that's the first time it happened in Rios' 10 years of Minor and Major league ball. You claim that it's a new level of performance all you want but until it happens twice it's nothing but speculation. Maybe he was an "uber prospect" but his minor league OPS in 7 years was .736 and he had one good minor league season, a year in which he hit .070 points higher than his career minor league BA. If you want to count on that happening every year be my guest, but it'd be a fools bet IMO.

Highlifeman21
12-17-2006, 04:22 PM
RIOS HAS NO CAREER MEAN! That's like saying that Morneau played over his head this season. When you are a top flight prospect and start to breakout, that is what is expected.

And no advantage to Dunn due to games played. Rios outperformed Dunn last season, end of story.

Dunn had 20 Win Shares last year, 17.5 of which were Batting Win Shares.

Rios had 19 Win Shares last year, 15.1 of which were Batting Win Shares.

That tells me Dunn outperformed Rios last season, end of story.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 04:25 PM
Dunn had 20 Win Shares last year, 17.5 of which were Batting Win Shares.

Rios had 19 Win Shares last year, 15.1 of which were Batting Win Shares.

That tells me Dunn outperformed Rios last season, end of story.

Yep, let's find a stat that puts Dunn on top. When RC/27 and OPS doesn't work, WS must. Does games played factor into WS? I wouldn't fault Rios for getting a staph infection, knocking him out for a month.

Highlifeman21
12-17-2006, 04:38 PM
Yep, let's find a stat that puts Dunn on top. When RC/27 and OPS doesn't work, WS must. Does games played factor into WS? I wouldn't fault Rios for getting a staph infection, knocking him out for a month.

Rios edged Dunn in OPS .865 to .855, which is pretty much moot.

Their total Win Shares numbers were moot due to Rios being a MUCH better defender, but the batting part of the Win Share equation shows Dunn had a better year than Rios in 2006.

Win Shares is probably one of the better ways to compare players, IMO.

Apparently you disagree.

Do you have their RC/27 numbers? I would be interested to see how the two of them stack up once you adjust them for their respective league.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 04:42 PM
Rios: 6.51
Dunn: 6.05

But does WS depend on games played?

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 04:50 PM
Because Dunn played well below his career norms and Rios played well above his. But again, this isn't about Dunn, he was only brought into the argument by folks who don't have the evidence to back up their original premise that Rios was worth Arroyo and thought they could cover up their tracks by changing the subject.




Umm, once again, I NEVER SUGGESTED THAT THE REDS SHOULD TRADE ARROYO FOR RIOS!!>>!>!>!>!>!>!>!!!!!..>!!..11!!!

I was also the one who brought up Dunn. I've already told you not to peg me as the person who said that, but obviously you are having trouble disassociating me from that idea.


As for Dunn playing below career norms, hasn't that been the trend over the last couple of years? In fact, you could say that at his current trend, in 07 anything above .225 would be a huge success.

westofyou
12-17-2006, 04:54 PM
As for Dunn playing below career norms, hasn't that been the trend over the last couple of years?

No, not at all

Adam
vs the league


ADAM DUNN

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2001 Reds 21 5 20 0 5 0 11 4.26 10 14 28 0 0 -.006 .138 .031 .169
2002 Reds 22 -6 11 -11 0 -1 9 1.76 1 71 70 9 -4 -.017 .031 .060 .091
2003 Reds 23 -17 14 -25 -10 -1 14 3.88 4 34 54 2 1 -.053 .034 .013 .047
2004 Reds 24 19 28 3 4 -3 27 4.72 29 52 94 -3 2 -.004 .132 .046 .178
2005 Reds 25 4 34 -11 5 -1 23 4.28 31 61 70 -5 2 -.022 .112 .049 .161
2006 Reds 26 -10 17 -25 -8 -4 21 3.78 14 55 88 -3 4 -.039 .048 .022 .070
TOTALS -6 124 -68 -4 -11 106 3.74 90 286 404 0 5 -.024 .080 .039 .119


YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
2001 Reds 17 2.43 36 15 .144 .198 .152 0 1 -1 -2 1 0 16 RF
2002 Reds 26 1.68 14 8 .048 .199 .099 7 3 -3 -1 5 0 64 LF
2003 Reds 9 0.79 6 3 .087 .185 .089 4 5 -3 1 6 0 20 LF
2004 Reds 46 2.92 83 28 .135 .218 .157 5 -1 -4 -5 5 0 61 LF
2005 Reds 41 2.66 62 27 .134 .236 .150 9 6 -4 -2 7 0 64 LF
2006 Reds 19 1.14 22 9 .087 .181 .092 6 -1 -3 -2 5 0 39 LF
TOTALS 158 1.93 223 91 .103 .204 .122 31 14 -17 -11 29 0 265
Rios


ALEXIS RIOS

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2004 Blue Jays 23 10 -5 9 2 5 -13 -3.08 -29 -9 8 8 0 .016 -.052 -.001 -.052
2005 Blue Jays 24 -12 3 -6 -3 3 -5 -1.04 -6 -15 14 6 -6 -.006 -.028 -.024 -.053
2006 Blue Jays 25 8 4 14 9 4 3 0.53 21 -6 9 8 -3 .027 .078 .009 .087
TOTALS 6 2 17 7 12 -16 -1.16 -14 -30 31 23 -9 .012 .000 -.006 -.006


YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
2004 Blue Jays -9 -0.72 -18 -6 -.067 -.071 -.050 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 0 -7 RF
2005 Blue Jays -15 -1.08 -19 -5 -.022 -.038 -.045 -2 0 -3 1 -2 0 -30 RF
2006 Blue Jays 14 1.13 39 15 .051 .053 .067 -2 -1 -2 6 1 0 5 RF
TOTALS -10 -0.26 2 4 -.012 -.018 -.009 -7 -4 -7 4 -6 0 -32

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 05:09 PM
Here's another great stat.

RISP

Dunn: .221
Rios: .356

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 05:16 PM
what do "vs. league" stats have to do with Dunn's numbers declining yearly?

2001- avg .262, obp .371, ops .949 (244 ab's)
2002- avg .249, obp .400, ops .854
2003- avg .215, obp .354, ops .819 (381 ab's)
2004- avg .266, obp .388, ops .956 TURNING THE CORNER!!
2005- avg .247, obp .387, ops .927
2006- avg .234, obp .365, ops .855

that to me shows a player trending downwards, and not becomming a better hitter as he matures.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 05:21 PM
and 1 more good comparison from 06.........

Dunn 7 OF assists, 12 errors.
Rios 8 OF assists, 1 error.

Also,

Dunn 6 triples............in his career
Rios 6 triples.........in 450 ab's

And,

Dunn 64 extra base hits in 561 ABs
Rios 56 extra base hits in 450 ABs

pedro
12-17-2006, 05:26 PM
One decent half year does not make a guy a star or a good bet to improve. sorry.

Highlifeman21
12-17-2006, 05:28 PM
Rios: 6.51
Dunn: 6.05

But does WS depend on games played?

I'm not sure. WoY or M2 or Cyclone may be able to answer this.

Patrick Bateman
12-17-2006, 05:35 PM
I'm not sure. WoY or M2 or Cyclone may be able to answer this.

Well in WS is a counting stat. The more you play, the more WS you will get. WS% is a better stat for finding out how often a player gets WS.

So based on WS, I would say Rios had the superior year to Dunn, but you should know that WS takes into account the ability to hit in clutch situations. So if you don't believe in clutchness then WS probably isn't the best stat to look at.

wheels
12-17-2006, 07:11 PM
Now we're trading Arroyo and possibly Dunn for....

Alex Rios?

Seriously?

Good lord. I hope Dunn tears it up next year so I don't have to deal with this in nearly every thread.

Please Adam, for my sanity's sake......Kill the Baseball next season.

I'm also not buying into the notion that Arroyo is somehow circling the drain.
Some pitchers click into gear at his age and don't regress. You don't trade him for a guy with as of yet un recognized potential.

I don't have a problem with Rios. He'd be nice to have in addition to what they've already got, but he hardly upgrades the club to the point that trading one or two of the team's vital cogs makes sense.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 07:19 PM
Now we're trading Arroyo and possibly Dunn for....

Alex Rios?

Seriously?

Good lord. I hope Dunn tears it up next year so I don't have to deal with this in nearly every thread.

Please Adam, for my sanity's sake......Kill the Baseball next season.

I'm also not buying into the notion that Arroyo is somehow circling the drain.
Some pitchers click into gear at his age and don't regress. You don't trade him for a guy with as of yet un recognized potential.

I don't have a problem with Rios. He'd be nice to have in addition to what they've already got, but he hardly upgrades the club to the point that trading one or two of the team's vital cogs makes sense.

It doesn't matter what Dunn does next season because some people can't see past batting average, strikeouts, and what they call "clutch", which doesn't exist.

Edd Roush
12-17-2006, 07:47 PM
and what they call "clutch", which doesn't exist.

Exactly, some fans will look at Dunn's stats and say, "Well, he must not be clutch since he's got all those home runs and hardly any RBIs. Furthermore, he can't knock in that runner on third with less than two outs, getting him a sac fly."

People fail to recognize Dunn's sac flies sail over the GAB's fences. Furthermore, clutch is another one of those team-dependant statistics. Dunn must have some one on to hit home to be considered clutch.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 07:47 PM
It doesn't matter what Dunn does next season because some people can't see past batting average, strikeouts, and what they call "clutch", which doesn't exist.

Clutch doesn't exist? So surely you see no correlation with the Reds late season collapse and Dunn's September choke-job?


Are you really that stupid that you don't believe that part of baseball is being able to move runners? To sacrifice yourself to drive in a run? You must be one of those chicks that just dig the longball.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 08:03 PM
Are you really that stupid

I guess so, thanks.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 08:04 PM
Clutch doesn't exist? So surely you see no correlation with the Reds late season collapse and Dunn's September choke-job?


Are you really that stupid that you don't believe that part of baseball is being able to move runners? To sacrifice yourself to drive in a run? You must be one of those chicks that just dig the longball.

I'm not for giving up outs, but what does that have to do with clutch? Maybe you should head back to that other site. People don't normally talk with each other like that here.

Highlifeman21
12-17-2006, 08:07 PM
Clutch doesn't exist? So surely you see no correlation with the Reds late season collapse and Dunn's September choke-job?


Are you really that stupid that you don't believe that part of baseball is being able to move runners? To sacrifice yourself to drive in a run? You must be one of those chicks that just dig the longball.

Because clearly Dunn was 100% to blame for the Reds tripping down the stretch....

No one else on the Reds shouldered any of that blame. 100% Adam Dunn.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 08:25 PM
Because clearly Dunn was 100% to blame for the Reds tripping down the stretch....

No one else on the Reds shouldered any of that blame. 100% Adam Dunn.


No, there were other people that struggled too, but those people weren't the star of the offense. They were players who played to their paycheck. Dunn played well below his.

In case you didn't notice, Dunn went 19/101 for a .188 avg. in August. His obp was a massive .333. In September he went 13/83 for a .157 avg. with a
.250 obp. He didn't even do the one thing he does well, as he only had 9 hr's in 193 ab's. That's less than 1 hr/20 ab's. For the record, he managed 9 in 83 April ab's.

If you're the "star" of the team and you struggle immensly as your team folds down the stretch, you're gonna shoulder most of the blame. It comes with the territory.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 08:27 PM
Exactly, some fans will look at Dunn's stats and say, "Well, he must not be clutch since he's got all those home runs and hardly any RBIs. Furthermore, he can't knock in that runner on third with less than two outs, getting him a sac fly."

People fail to recognize Dunn's sac flies sail over the GAB's fences. Furthermore, clutch is another one of those team-dependant statistics. Dunn must have some one on to hit home to be considered clutch.

I know it is a common belief that clutch doesn't exist which, IMO, is a huge fallacy. We can argue this forever, so no point in doing so now. But since you think that Dunn's sac flies "sail over the GAB's fences, how do you explain this?

Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs:

2006: 27 PAs, zero HRs, 9 Ks
2005: 32 PAs, 2 HRs, 11 Ks
2004: 43 PAs, 3 HRs, 12 Ks

3 year total: 102 PAs, 5 HRs, 32 whiffs

I have come to grips with what Dunn is: He hits a lot of HRs, whiffs a lot, hits for a very low average and walks a lot. There's Dunn in a nutshell.

But I get frustrated when people make stuff up about Dunn. Let's call it how it is instead of assuming things through sabermetric statistics.

Dunn's BA and SLG drop in his career with RISP and drop even further with RISP and 2 outs. OBP doesn't mean much to me in those situations b/c you want hits to drive runners in. Until he raises his game in those situations, I think he can be called anything but clutch.

Dracodave
12-17-2006, 08:32 PM
Because clearly Dunn was 100% to blame for the Reds tripping down the stretch....

No one else on the Reds shouldered any of that blame. 100% Adam Dunn.

I love that sense of sarcasism. :) We have a batting order, Not just 1-8 Adam Dunn. :eek: :eek:

pedro
12-17-2006, 08:46 PM
Clutch doesn't exist? So surely you see no correlation with the Reds late season collapse and Dunn's September choke-job?


Are you really that stupid that you don't believe that part of baseball is being able to move runners? To sacrifice yourself to drive in a run? You must be one of those chicks that just dig the longball.

The thing about "clutch" is that if you're measuring it in terms of BA w/ RISP or even OPS w/ RISP a particular players stats will vary widely in those categories from year to year. So while one player may be more 'clutch" than another in a particular year, those stats really aren't an indicator of a players ability to perform postively in thoes same situations in subsequent years. That's what people mean by "clutch doesn't exist"

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 08:54 PM
another thing on the topic of clutch. You can only believe there is no such thing as clutch if you have never played an out/down/quarter/period of organized athletics. When the pressure is on, and your heartrate increases, and your knees shake a little bit, and when your hands are clammy with cold sweat, how you react in those situations is a part of defining who you are as a player.

The bottom line is that clutch is a part of sports. Athletes are humans, and they have to react in high-pressure situations. Dunn, so far, hasn't proven to be one who excels in those moments.

Dracodave
12-17-2006, 09:02 PM
The only way I give up Arroyo is if we get a deal like Haren/Mulder. Send Arroyo off for a bounty of players and a young pitcher who could step in and take over with little drop off...and the chance to be better.

I don't think I'd give up anything for Rios for the fact that, Toronto fans are calling for a D-Train type pitcher or nothing less for him.


They value Rios like we value Dunn.

:bang:

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 09:02 PM
The thing about "clutch" is that if you're measuring it in terms of BA w/ RISP or even OPS w/ RISP a particular players stats will vary widely in those categories from year to year. So while one player may be more 'clutch" than another in a particular year, those stats really aren't an indicator of a players ability to perform postively in thoes same situations in subsequent years. That's what people mean by "clutch doesn't exist"


In Dunn's case, that doesn't appear to be true. He has a career .219 BA with RISP.

with risp....

2001- .203
2002- .208
2003- .170
2004- .239
2005- .248
2006- .221

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 09:04 PM
as for giving up Arroyo, I couldn't. I'm not even huge on him, but giving up anything that may resemble decent pitching is something this team should stay well away from.

Dracodave
12-17-2006, 09:07 PM
as for giving up Arroyo, I couldn't. I'm not even huge on him, but giving up anything that may resemble decent pitching is something this team should stay well away from.


Notice my point there was Haren/Mulder trade. We need to cash Arroyo in for younger+higher cieling pitchers teams have soured on. Haren looks pretty smart for the A's compared to Mulder for the Cards no? Thats my point, risks with high-results.:cool:

wheels
12-17-2006, 09:11 PM
In Dunn's case, that doesn't appear to be true. He has a career .219 BA with RISP.

with risp....

2001- .203
2002- .208
2003- .170
2004- .239
2005- .248
2006- .221

We're not going to get into this again.

At least I'm not.

Redszone's got an amazing search function. Just type in Adam Dunn, and you'll quickly see that all of the arguments have been made before. Maybe what you read will change your mind, nonetheless, this has become a stale topic around here and you'll be met with a high level of consternation.

Take a little time to read, and I'm sure you'll come across some very thought provoking stuff.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 09:13 PM
Notice my point there was Haren/Mulder trade. We need to cash Arroyo in for younger+higher cieling pitchers teams have soured on. Haren looks pretty smart for the A's compared to Mulder for the Cards no? Thats my point, risks with high-results.:cool:


no, i agree with you completely. that deal was a flat out steal for Oakland. I'm also on a mostly StL Cardinals board, and they still cry about that deal.

Mulder for one of the top SPs in the AL in Haren, a capable RP in Calero, and a top 40 prospect in Daric Barton. I would LOOOOOVE that type of deal. I was just trying to make sure my name remained out of the group that wants to move Arroyo in a Rios-like deal. If you saw what I proposed, that's the type of thing that I think makes the most sense.

Dunn to LAA
E Santana to Toronto
with Shields and Rios to Cinci.

No mention of Arroyo, and no desire to really thin out our current pitching staff.

Redhook
12-17-2006, 09:16 PM
The first thing I'd like to say is that I like Dunn and I understand how valuable he is, etc. etc. I want him to remain a Red. The Reds desperately need him.

I believe in clutch performances. "Clutch" may he hard to prove. It may be more of an opinion to each individual, but in my mind, stars like Jordan, Elway, and Tiger step(ped) up their performances when the game or tournament was(is) on the line. Tiger is clutch. I don't think there is any way you could prove or say he is not clutch. Just by watching him perform on Sundays, you can see he plays better when the tournament is on the line. And statistically, he performs better too. Some athletes perform better when the pressure is at it's highest. Some don't. IMO, Dunn does not. That doesn't mean he isn't a very good player, but he is certainly not elite. His game regressed when the Reds needed him the most in the last two months. There's no arguing that.

Dracodave
12-17-2006, 09:16 PM
A good deal would be.

Milton for Rios and Chacin ;)

One can dream can't I?

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 09:18 PM
A good deal would be.

Milton for Rios and Chacin ;)

One can dream can't I?

Hah....if you have any pills that would make me dream in a similar fashion, I'll give you my number.
:thumbup:

Falls City Beer
12-17-2006, 09:30 PM
Now we're trading Arroyo and possibly Dunn for....

Alex Rios?

Seriously?

Good lord. I hope Dunn tears it up next year so I don't have to deal with this in nearly every thread.

Please Adam, for my sanity's sake......Kill the Baseball next season.

I'm also not buying into the notion that Arroyo is somehow circling the drain.
Some pitchers click into gear at his age and don't regress. You don't trade him for a guy with as of yet un recognized potential.

I don't have a problem with Rios. He'd be nice to have in addition to what they've already got, but he hardly upgrades the club to the point that trading one or two of the team's vital cogs makes sense.


Adam could bat .300, hit 60 HRs, win the MVP, lead the Reds to the postseason, and STILL if he trots out to his position, he'll get smeared left and right on this board and around town. It's just the Cincy ethos; there's no escaping it.

Dracodave
12-17-2006, 09:31 PM
Adam could bat .300, hit 60 HRs, win the MVP, lead the Reds to the postseason, and STILL if he trots out to his position, he'll get smeared left and right on this board and around town. It's just the Cincy ethos; there's no escaping it.

True superstars RUN into their outfield wall before every inning. :thumbdown

wheels
12-17-2006, 09:32 PM
Adam could bat .300, hit 60 HRs, win the MVP, lead the Reds to the postseason, and STILL if he trots out to his position, he'll get smeared left and right on this board and around town. It's just the Cincy ethos; there's no escaping it.


Guh.

You'd think he'd be a guy they could get behind.

A rootin' tootin' gun totin' Texan. He hunts, fishes, and votes republican.

He should be a star in Cincinnati.

Falls City Beer
12-17-2006, 09:33 PM
Guh.

You'd think he'd be a guy they could get behind.

A rootin' tootin' gun totin' Texan. He hunts, fishes, and votes republican.

He should be a star in Cincinnati.

Not Teutonic enough. Way too British Isles.

vaticanplum
12-17-2006, 09:34 PM
Guh.

You'd think he'd be a guy they could get behind.

A rootin' tootin' gun totin' Texan. He hunts, fishes, and votes republican.

He should be a star in Cincinnati.

I guess the fans don't dig the long ball. Funny.

wheels
12-17-2006, 09:35 PM
Not Teutonic enough. Way too British Isles.

Like I said....

"Guh".

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 09:35 PM
FWIW, I'm not one of those "run Dunn out at all costs" fans. I actually LIKE Dunn, and think that he can improve as a player. I don't think that he'll ever really hit over .265 over a full year, but I do think he can become a .260ish guy with great power. I do however think that he would be of more value to an AL team, and that if the Reds could receive AL Dunn value in a trade for him, than it would make sense for the overall improvement of the team. I am a pretty big fan of Rios, and I think that if the Reds could get him, along with a strong arm, it would make perfect sense.

Falls City Beer
12-17-2006, 09:38 PM
Like I said....

"Guh".

Sabo's all eastern European-looking--looks like he should be stuffing sausages in a factory in Warsaw; wasn't a very good player all in all: yet the fans adored him.

Eric Davis, premiere offensive force of the 80s, teammate of Sabo's: generally disliked.

wheels
12-17-2006, 09:39 PM
I guess the fans don't dig the long ball. Funny.

They don't have a problem cheering when he hits them, though.

Reminds me of what Ted Williams went through with the Boston media and fans.

They actually complained that he walked too much in the World Series against the Cards in '46 ( I think it was 46....).

I'm not saying Dunn's Cincinnati martyrdom matches that of Williams, but I can see the similarities.

Dracodave
12-17-2006, 09:40 PM
Sabo's all eastern European-looking--looks like he should be stuffing sausages in a factory in Warsaw; wasn't a very good player all in all: yet the fans adored him.



Until we found out he got protected and Trevor Hoffman didnt :laugh: :laugh:

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 09:40 PM
They don't have a problem cheering when he hits them, though.

Reminds me of what Ted Williams went through with the Boston media and fans.

They actually complained that he walked too much in the World Series against the Cards in '46 ( I think it was 46....).

I'm not saying Dunn's Cincinnati martyrdom matches that of Williams, but I can see the similarities.

Comparing Williams and Dunn is exactly what is wrong with these arguments. Dunn isn't half the player Williams was.

wheels
12-17-2006, 09:41 PM
Sabo's all eastern European-looking--looks like he should be stuffing sausages in a factory in Warsaw; wasn't a very good player all in all: yet the fans adored him.

Eric Davis, premiere offensive force of the 80s, teammate of Sabo's: generally disliked.

He crashed into more walls, and snapped more tendons, lacererated kidneys and pretty much played harder than Sabo as well.


Didn't have to cork his bat, either.

It makes me mad just thinking about it.

wheels
12-17-2006, 09:42 PM
Comparing Williams and Dunn is exactly what is wrong with these arguments. Dunn isn't half the player Williams was.

Read the last line of my post, please.

IslandRed
12-17-2006, 09:49 PM
Comparing Williams and Dunn is exactly what is wrong with these arguments. Dunn isn't half the player Williams was.

That wasn't the comparison being made, was it? A player doesn't have to be Ted Williams to get the Ted Williams treatment from his fanbase. Not saying that Dunn's is nearly that bad.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 09:49 PM
Read the last line of my post, please.

I did. Williams was arguably the greatest hitter ever. Fans having an issue with him is a completely different story than fans having an issue with Dunn.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 09:51 PM
That wasn't the comparison being made, was it? A player doesn't have to be Ted Williams to get the Ted Williams treatment from his fanbase. Not saying that Dunn's is nearly that bad.

I think there was a comparison...saying that watching what Dunn goes through brings to mind what Williams went through is a comparison. When Dunn wins a few triple crowns and still gets abused, then the comparison will hold true.

wheels
12-17-2006, 09:57 PM
I think there was a comparison...saying that watching what Dunn goes through brings to mind what Williams went through is a comparison. When Dunn wins a few triple crowns and still gets abused, then the comparison will hold true.

You're not getting it.

Just because the scale is different doesn't mean that the particulars aren't similar.

Here's what I wrote again.





I'm not saying Dunn's Cincinnati martyrdom matches that of Williams, but I can see the similarities.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 10:00 PM
You're not getting it.

Just because the scale is different doesn't mean that the particulars aren't similar.

I guess I don't get it now either. So if fans show displeasure in a players game, he should be compared to Ted Williams?

wheels
12-17-2006, 10:01 PM
I guess I don't get it now either. So if fans show displeasure in a players game, he should be compared to Ted Williams?

Oh Brother....:laugh:

Ron Madden
12-17-2006, 10:06 PM
Oh Brother....:laugh:

Weird thread. :runaway:

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 10:11 PM
You're not getting it.

Just because the scale is different doesn't mean that the particulars aren't similar.

Here's what I wrote again.

I know what you are saying, but I really don't think you can even come close to comparing the 2 situations. Fans have the right to gripe about Dunn's preformance. There are certain aspects of his game which are mediocre, at the very best. Williams was an all time great. To say that fans having an issue with Williams' performance is even comparable to Dunn's situation is a huge stretch.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 10:12 PM
There's no "oh brother" about it. If we were talking about ARod, I could see your point. However, we're talking about a player who quite possibly has underachieved throughout his career. A non-all-star even. This is a player who has enough holes in his game to be nitpicked based on what he's (possibly unfairly) expected to be to the offense of this team.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 10:13 PM
I know what you are saying, but I really don't think you can even come close to comparing the 2 situations. Fans have the right to gripe about Dunn's preformance. There are certain aspects of his game which are mediocre, at the very best. Williams was an all time great. To say that fans having an issue with Williams' performance is even comparable to Dunn's situation is a huge stretch.


ummm.............yeah! JINX!

wheels
12-17-2006, 10:20 PM
Once again, I think the context of my statement is being misunderstood.

FCB, vaticanplum, and I were talking about what the average Reds fan values in a player, not just numbers...The post was made within that context.

It was a social context more than anything.

If you wanna blow it up and run with it, go ahead.

Jpup
12-17-2006, 10:47 PM
Once again, I think the context of my statement is being misunderstood.

FCB, vaticanplum, and I were talking about what the average Reds fan values in a player, not just numbers...The post was made within that context.

It was a social context more than anything.

If you wanna blow it up and run with it, go ahead.

I understood you and you make a great point. FCB made an even better point in comparing the way Sabo/Davis were treated. It's amazing how the best player the organization has seen in probably 10 years gets bashed for being who he is. It's also amazing how every thread turns into a Dunn bashing thread. I almost wished the Reds would trade him so they could find someone else to bash.;)

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-17-2006, 11:00 PM
I would immediately offer Arroyo for Rios and a halfway decent minor league pitcher.
So your ok with giving up our second best pitcher out of a rotation that in already missing so much. I think your confusing Arroyo with someone else, he is such a value right now with the contracts that are being given out. You could never replace him for what you are paying him right now.

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 11:08 PM
I understood you and you make a great point. FCB made an even better point in comparing the way Sabo/Davis were treated. It's amazing how the best player the organization has seen in probably 10 years gets bashed for being who he is. It's also amazing how every thread turns into a Dunn bashing thread. I almost wished the Reds would trade him so they could find someone else to bash.;)

Going out on a bit of a limb here, but I don't think Dunn will be passing Griffey on any "best of" lists. Also, by the time all is said and done, i strongly believe that Harang and EE will both have better careers if healthy. Heck, I dont think it's really a stretch to say that Harang was much more valuable to the team than Dunn was last season.

edabbs44
12-17-2006, 11:10 PM
So your ok with giving up our second best pitcher out of a rotation that in already missing so much. I think your confusing Arroyo with someone else, he is such a value right now with the contracts that are being given out. You could never replace him for what you are paying him right now.

This team is not going anywhere right now. So if Arroyo goes does it really matter for the next 2 years? Not really. So I'd rather get some youth in here than watch Arroyo regress a bit this year. Sell high...

REDblooded
12-17-2006, 11:11 PM
I'm too young, and to new to the area to remember Davis/Sabo. I believe y'all, but find it freaking inconceivable that fans were bigger on Sabo than Davis. I was a kid living in Tennessee when I became a Reds fan. Eric Davis was the reason why.

Mario-Rijo
12-18-2006, 12:28 AM
Just some other notes here to ponder on the Rios possibilities. But my guess is that the Jays are just trying to find out what kind of value he has on the open market. I doubt they take less than a prospect with huge upside or a veteran who can act as a #2 or a high end #3 at worst.


Blue Jay shop holiday sale for Rios posted: Sunday, December 17, 2006

The week before Christmas is usually a slow time for general managers. Almost all of the best free agents have signed, some teams have made trades, and the final roster tweaking, for most teams, is left for January, after the holidays.

But this year, the market continues to percolate, strongly. "It's like we're having a second winter meetings," said one GM.


The most interesting name on the market now, numerous executives said Saturday, is that of Toronto right fielder Alex Rios, a rising star who was on the verge of a breakthrough season last year when he went down with a staph infection. The word among rival executives is that now that the Blue Jays have locked up Vernon Wells, they are shopping Rios in their quest to land a No. 4 starter for their rotation. "He's a pretty good player to have out there right now," said an NL executive.


Rios, 25, batted .302 with 17 homers and 82 RBI in 128 games last season, hitting for power for the first time and demonstrating that he could turn out to be a star. Rios hit .362 in April, .360 in May, but had only 14 at-bats in July after coming down with the infection. He returned to the lineup on July 28 and batted .198 in August, before finishing well -- Rios hit .333 in 66 at-bats in September, but with one home run.


What could make him particularly attractive for interested teams is that he is four years away from becoming eligible for free agency, and he's already had success and had a lot of experience.


He could possibly be a fit with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who may put right-hander Brad Penny on the market. But Penny would be expensive in the Jays' world -- his salary will be $7.5 million in 2007 and $8.5 million in 2008 -- and he's been hurt a lot in his career, managing 30 starts in three of his seven seasons. Jon Lieber is available, but the Phillies don't have enough to offer beyond the veteran righty.


The Jays would probably be more interested in swapping Rios for a starting pitcher for less service time -- someone like Oakland's 26-year-old Joe Blanton, who racked up 395.2 innings and 28 victories in his first two seasons as a big-league starter. But Oakland needs Blanton, and conversations between the Athletics and Jays over a Rios-Blanton trade match ended quickly.


An intriguing possibility would be a Mets-Jays swap for Rios. The Mets were ready to swoop in and make a pitch for Wells if his negotiations fell apart, and threads of those conversations might be picked up in a Rios deal. As Barry Zito and his agent know, the Mets don't have much in the way of established, front line starting pitching, but they do have depth in young, inexperienced starters, like Aaron Heilman.


Rios makes sense for the Mets because he would help make an older team younger; he'd be another right-handed hitter who could help balance a lineup that leans left; the Mets have one-year obligations on Moises Alou and Shawn Green, and Rios could supplant Green in 2007 and effectively be a middle-of-the-order hitter in the seasons that followed.


If the Jays like Heilman as a starting pitcher, there would be a natural match, but interestingly, Heilman may be effectively devalued by the fact that the Mets have clearly been reluctant to use him as a starting pitcher. "The Mets need starting pitching," said one rival executive, "but they won't put him in the rotation. So what does that tell you? If the Mets don't look at him as a starter, then any team looking to trade for him might feel the same way."


The Mets and Jays kicked around the possibility of a Lastings Milledge-Heilman deal for Wells, according to one scout familiar with the conversations. A deal of Rios-and-something else for Heilman and Milledge might be a framework for a trade. Or maybe the Jays could ask for one of the Mets' young pitchers, either Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber, or perhaps John Maine or Oliver Perez. It all depends on how the Jays would evaluate each of those young pitchers.


But the Jays are relatively deep in outfielders now, with Rios, Wells locked in at center field, Reed Johnson in one corner and Adam Lind an option in left field; Lind had a strong September, batting .367. "[Toronto's] best option for upgrading their pitching staff is to trade Rios," said an AL official. "He's got market value; you can get something good for him."


The Pirates are talking about a possible deal of Mike Gonzalez with the Yankees; Melky Cabrera would be involved. There are concerns about the condition of Gonzalez's pitching elbow, after he was unavailable for the last 5 weeks, and he walked 31 in 54 innings last season.


But Gonzalez has excellent stuff, and nobody seems to do serious damage against him. Gonzalez allowed just one home run and six doubles last year: left-handed batters had a .256 slugging percentage, with a .163 average. Right-handed hitters? A .260 slugging percentage.


He sometimes will have long innings, throwing a lot of pitches and putting runners on base with walks. But numbers from last season show he is pretty efficient: Mark Simon of ESPN Research asked the Elias Sports Bureau about how often Gonzalez generated 1-2-3 innings, and Gonzalez, compared to other closers with at least 20 saves, fared pretty well. Here's the list, highest to lowest, of the percentages of 1-2-3 innings:


PCT INN 1-2-3 Pitcher SV
.470 68.1 32 Nathan, Joe, Min. 36
.455 68.1 31 Papelbon, Jonathan, Bos. 35
.413 70.2 29 Street, Huston, Oak. 37
.410 78.1 32 Putz, J.J., Sea. 36
.410 78.1 32 Saito, Takashi, LA-N 24
.391 64.0 25 Jones, Todd, Det. 37
.389 54.0 21 Gonzalez, Mike, Pit. 24
.364 66.0 24 Ray, Chris, Bal. 33
.361 69.2 25 Borowski, Joe, Fla. 36
.349 63.0 22 Hoffman, Trevor, S.D. 46
.347 72.1 25 Wagner, Billy, NY-N 40
.338 59.1 20 Gordon, Tom, Phi. 34
.338 59.2 20 Otsuka, Akinori, Tex. 32
.333 75.0 25 Lidge, Brad, Hou. 32
.333 75.0 25 Rivera, Mariano, NY-A 34
.333 72.1 24 Ryan, B.J., Tor. 38
.328 73.1 24 Cordero, Chad, Was. 29
.301 73.0 22 Rodriguez, Francisco, LA-A 47
.293 75.1 22 Cordero, Francisco, Tex.-Mil. 22
.280 75.0 21 Dempster, Ryan, ChiN 24

Cabrera has quickly developed into a very nice player, a guy who matured greatly as a hitter last season and will continue to progress. If any team trades for Cabrera, at age 22, they're getting a guy who could be at the outset of an unspectacular but very solid 15-year big league career. The Pirates and Yankees have had trouble making trades in the past; we'll see if they get something worked out here.