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View Full Version : By June 1st, the REDS will acquire a #3 starter...



Eric_Davis
12-20-2006, 09:58 PM
Everyone's always so impatient. It will happen. I'm more concerned about Griffey getting out of CF than worrying about who's going to be our #3 starter after June 1st.

Redsland
12-21-2006, 12:30 PM
Yeah, let's wait half the season before we address our most important deficiency.

That'll make our charge up the ladder from fourth place much more exciting.

steig
12-21-2006, 01:03 PM
don't we have a #3 starter? We need a #1 or 2.

TeamBoone
12-21-2006, 01:05 PM
You don't think Aaron Harang is a #1? Wasn't he in the running for the Cy Young (or should have been based on his numbers)?

Or am I all wet?

Highlifeman21
12-21-2006, 01:36 PM
You don't think Aaron Harang is a #1? Wasn't he in the running for the Cy Young (or should have been based on his numbers)?

Or am I all wet?

I would say Harang and Arroyo were definitely #2s.

They just didn't quite had what it took to put up #1 numbers, probably due to the fact they were overworked by Narron.

Z-Fly
12-21-2006, 01:40 PM
I would say Harang and Arroyo were definitely #2s.

They just didn't quite had what it took to put up #1 numbers, probably due to the fact they were overworked by Narron.

I think he was saying Harang did put up number one numbers.

CySeymour
12-21-2006, 01:56 PM
He say's by June 1st, but he didn't say in what year.

Always Red
12-21-2006, 02:10 PM
I'd bet both Arroyo and Harang could get what Jason Schmidt did this year if they were on the open market. My guess is most GM's see them as about 1.5's, with Harang slightly higher than Arroyo, given past performance.

Falls City Beer
12-21-2006, 02:24 PM
You can pick up relievers through June 1st; #3 pitchers almost never between April 1st and June 1st. And nearly all #3 caliber and above pitchers have been traded or aren't on the market, so it's unlikely to happen between now and the beginning of the season.

dfs
12-21-2006, 02:51 PM
Quoted from a couple posters in a thread from RedsManRick's early december post about "what is a #X starter anyway" thread

#1 slot - 118 ERA+
#2 slot - 104 ERA+
#3 slot - 97 ERA+
#4 slot - 90 ERA+
#5 slot - 78 ERA+
2006 ERA+ (number of starts in parenthesis):

Arroyo (35) 146
Harang (35) 128
Milton (26) 93
Ramirez (19) 90
Lohse (19) 80
Claussen (12) 78

Arroyo and Harang both qualify as #1 starters.

Lohse has put up an ERA+ of 100. If he does that, he's a #3. If he puts up a 105 (which he has done twice) he's of the quality of a #2 starter.
Year Age Starts IP ERA+
02 23 31 180 104
03 24 33 201 100
04 25 34 194 89
05 26 30 178 105
06 27 19 126 80

Milton was a 4. With the exception of 06, Milton has been a pretty consistant 4 since he got hurt with the twins in 02.

I assume Claussen is not coming back.

After this last August I don't think Jerry Narron will use the Lizard anymore than he has to, but I assume that the Lizard will be the default #5 if they don't make a move and nobody really steps up in spring training.

If you think Lohse can put together a 97 ERA+ (and he has done that three of the last 5 years) .....then the reds rotation as currently configured is a strength.

I know, I know....There's no depth to it. Park effects will not make the numbers look pretty. Once your past Harang, there isn't a strikeout pitcher in the group. The bullpen could kill them. I think Arroyo and Harang are injury risks after the loads they took last season.....

but if you think Lohse can "come back" then the reds rotation as currently configured is a strength.

corkedbat
12-21-2006, 03:04 PM
Could be he's anticipating Homer in the rotation as the #3 by 06/01/07

RedFanAlways1966
12-21-2006, 04:40 PM
June 1, 2006...

* REDS are in 2nd place w/ a 29-24 record. REDS spend 18 days in 1st place during April and May.
* Arroyo and Harang have a combined ERA of 3.13 in that span. Rest of staff (Claussen, Milton, Williams & Ramirez) have a combined ERA of 5.42 in that span.
* Arroyo and Harang have a record of 11-6. Rest of staff has a record of 10-15. Bullpen has a record of 8-3 with 5 blown saves.

>> 20 of the REDS 24 losses in that 2-month span were games in which the REDS offense scored 4 runs or less in the game. In 7 of those 20 losses the opposition scored 3 runs or less in the game, but still won the game.

Will M
12-21-2006, 04:54 PM
I agree that Arroyo and Harang are 1.5s

IMO Bailey will be in Cinci this year and will have an above league average ERA. His innings will be watched carefully.

IMO Lohse will have a huge year hoping to get a Padilla like contract in the offseason. He will give us 200 innings.

Milton. l think IF HEALTHY will be ok as a 5th starter. If not healthy then :eek:

This rotation is better than rotations of the Cards and the Astros.

steig
12-21-2006, 05:23 PM
I don't think Harang and Arroyo are #1 level guys. Harang probably is close to a #2 and Arroyo is definately a #3 in my mind. But I am basing my judgment on what pitching it takes to have a team that is competitive to go to the world series. THe Reds were a sub .500 team last year and I would have expected more from the team if they truely had two #1's in their rotation or a #1 or #2. Harang has great stuff but I would like to see him be a little more consistent. And if Arroyo was a #4 or 5 with Boston, how is he all of a sudden a #2 level pitcher.

I belive Homer will mature into a #1 pitcher and hopefully be the piece the Reds have been missing. Between Homer, Harang and Arroyo...2008 looks good. We just have to see what happens in 07 first.

Handofdeath
12-21-2006, 06:23 PM
I don't think Harang and Arroyo are #1 level guys. Harang probably is close to a #2 and Arroyo is definately a #3 in my mind. But I am basing my judgment on what pitching it takes to have a team that is competitive to go to the world series. THe Reds were a sub .500 team last year and I would have expected more from the team if they truely had two #1's in their rotation or a #1 or #2. Harang has great stuff but I would like to see him be a little more consistent. And if Arroyo was a #4 or 5 with Boston, how is he all of a sudden a #2 level pitcher.

I belive Homer will mature into a #1 pitcher and hopefully be the piece the Reds have been missing. Between Homer, Harang and Arroyo...2008 looks good. We just have to see what happens in 07 first.

I respectfully disagree. Your comment about the Reds being a sub .500 team and expecting more from the Reds if Harang and Arroyo were true #1's is off the mark. Steve Carlton once went 27-10 and won the pitching Triple Crown for a Phillies team that was 59-97. Should that have diminished his accomplishments? I say no. Harang and Arroyo are the reasons the Reds didn't lose 90 games this season. Harang was tied for the league lead in wins, 1st in K's and 11th in ERA. To me that says #1 starter. You can say the same for Arroyo. I don't believe you can say that a #1 should have this many wins and an ERA below this. I think you look at the other pitchers in the league and compare. That's why, like it or not, Eric Milton is a #4 pitcher in the NL.

RedFanAlways1966
12-21-2006, 06:25 PM
And if Arroyo was a #4 or 5 with Boston, how is he all of a sudden a #2 level pitcher.

I'd like to see how many #1 or #2 guys in the majors had this last year:

* 65.7% quality start ratio.
* 6.88 innings per start.
* 3.29 ERA.

All this while his team's run support for him was below the team average. Arroyo lost 11 games... the REDS team scored a combined 22 runs in those 11 lost games. While only being 14-11 for the year, he definitely deserved a much better W-L record... one that most #1 or #2 level guys have due to the above stats that he gave during the year.

Is he a legit #1 or #2 for a sustained period? I don't know. Does he deserve to be recognized as a #1 or #2 based on 2006? Heck yeah... and I am sure a few Red Sox faithful were sorry for that trade when they saw him in the All-Star game and when the year ended.

M2
12-21-2006, 06:54 PM
Quoted from a couple posters in a thread from RedsManRick's early december post about "what is a #X starter anyway" thread


Arroyo and Harang both qualify as #1 starters.

Lohse has put up an ERA+ of 100. If he does that, he's a #3. If he puts up a 105 (which he has done twice) he's of the quality of a #2 starter.
Year Age Starts IP ERA+
02 23 31 180 104
03 24 33 201 100
04 25 34 194 89
05 26 30 178 105
06 27 19 126 80

Milton was a 4. With the exception of 06, Milton has been a pretty consistant 4 since he got hurt with the twins in 02.

I assume Claussen is not coming back.

After this last August I don't think Jerry Narron will use the Lizard anymore than he has to, but I assume that the Lizard will be the default #5 if they don't make a move and nobody really steps up in spring training.

If you think Lohse can put together a 97 ERA+ (and he has done that three of the last 5 years) .....then the reds rotation as currently configured is a strength.

I know, I know....There's no depth to it. Park effects will not make the numbers look pretty. Once your past Harang, there isn't a strikeout pitcher in the group. The bullpen could kill them. I think Arroyo and Harang are injury risks after the loads they took last season.....

but if you think Lohse can "come back" then the reds rotation as currently configured is a strength.

Except that treats the Kansas City Royals the same as the Los Angeles Dodgers. There aren't 30 #1 starters. There aren't 30 #2 starters. There aren't 30 #3 starters. Some teams, like the Royals or multiple Reds teams in the recent past, don't even have five guys good enough to be #5 starters.

Yes Harang and Arroyo were among the top 30 pitchers in MLB last year, but what they are is guys who can give you 200+ IP with, generally, an ERA in the high 3.00s. I'm a BIG fan of that, but that's a #3 pitcher in a truly good rotation (and, yes, I think any team can contend with three guys like that).

On the original point of this thread, since we're picking such a deflating made-by date could somebody at least tell me who that #3 pitcher will be? And it better not be some guy with a 97 ERA+.

steig
12-21-2006, 07:10 PM
I'd like to see how many #1 or #2 guys in the majors had this last year:

* 65.7% quality start ratio.
* 6.88 innings per start.
* 3.29 ERA.

All this while his team's run support for him was below the team average. Arroyo lost 11 games... the REDS team scored a combined 22 runs in those 11 lost games. While only being 14-11 for the year, he definitely deserved a much better W-L record... one that most #1 or #2 level guys have due to the above stats that he gave during the year.

Is he a legit #1 or #2 for a sustained period? I don't know. Does he deserve to be recognized as a #1 or #2 based on 2006? Heck yeah... and I am sure a few Red Sox faithful were sorry for that trade when they saw him in the All-Star game and when the year ended.

I agree with you that Arroyo had a great year and that he pitched in 2006 like he was a #1 or #2. However, if I'm going to rate a pitcher I want to look at more than his last year. Lot's of players have a great year and then drop down or drop back to normal. If Arroyo can repeat his 2006 effort then i would definately put him in the category of a top line starter. But let's seem him do it again before we ask for to much from him. At this point we need to project what the team can get from it's pitching staff based on more than just the last season. I'm certain there are a lot of Boston fans that miss Arrroyo and I think we got the better end of the deal. I just want to see a repeat performance first.

Krusty
12-21-2006, 07:41 PM
Just pencil Homer Bailey as the number 3 starter by June 1lst.

DannyB
12-21-2006, 10:37 PM
I say it will be April 5th:D

dfs
12-22-2006, 12:15 AM
On the original point of this thread, since we're picking such a deflating made-by date could somebody at least tell me who that #3 pitcher will be? And it better not be some guy with a 97 ERA+.
I thought I made it clear that Krivsky has reason enough to think it's going to be Kyle Lohse. You and I might not agree, but I think it's pretty plain that's what the front office thinks.

M2
12-22-2006, 01:28 AM
I thought I made it clear that Krivsky has reason enough to think it's going to be Kyle Lohse. You and I might not agree, but I think it's pretty plain that's what the front office thinks.

I keep hoping they know better. With big money looming after this season, I could see Lohse pulling a Jimmy Haynes 2002 out of himself. Yet the Reds, as currently constructed, are positively counting on it.

I'd really like to be rooting for a team that isn't addicted to pixie dust.

pedro
12-22-2006, 01:33 AM
I keep hoping they know better. With big money looming after this season, I could see Lohse pulling a Jimmy Haynes 2002 out of himself. Yet the Reds, as currently constructed, are positively counting on it.

I'd really like to be rooting for a team that isn't addicted to pixie dust.

Something tells me it'll be much more "wave of mutilation" than "here comes your man"

M2
12-22-2006, 01:35 AM
Something tells me it'll be much more "wave of mutilation" than "here comes your man"

I'm just feeling so "chained" at the moment.

dfs
12-22-2006, 09:32 AM
I'd really like to be rooting for a team that isn't addicted to pixie dust.

My friend that is now sig material.

CrackerJack
12-22-2006, 07:05 PM
I'm just feeling so "chained" at the moment.

To the pillars for a 3 day party? Will you break the walls and kill us all with your holy vision?