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ddrone
12-21-2006, 03:00 PM
Just found this over on Marcs blog.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Reds trade for Conine

Reds trade two minor leaugers for 1B Jeff Conine. More to come.

Falls City Beer
12-21-2006, 03:02 PM
Okay, Jeff Conine is older than I am.

kheidg-
12-21-2006, 03:03 PM
Conine would have been a good pickup last year before they went with Hollandsworth. Not a bad move IMO as with Conine you basically know what you'll get.

NJReds
12-21-2006, 03:04 PM
Okay, Jeff Conine is older than I am.

We're becoming a cheaper version of the SF Giants. At least their 40-yr.-olds can play.

Johnny Footstool
12-21-2006, 03:09 PM
Conine can still hit lefties fairly well.

There's the other half of the 1B platoon.

Shall we call them "Hattenine" or "CoBerg"?

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:10 PM
So not only did we acquire a 41 year old 1st base platoon partner for Hatteberg, we gave up two prospects for him. Ah, I see.

In all honesty, this isn't that big of a deal, IMO. He'll make a pretty good platoon partner with Hatteberg this year and they are both gone next offseason so Joey Votto can take over. I would have prefered the Reds targeting someone with upside (like Lance Niekro, that we had recently talked about). At least then they could have made a choice what to do. This is just a move to say, "hey we made a move, and we can be rid of both players at this time next year."

P.S. I like CoBerg.

westofyou
12-21-2006, 03:11 PM
Conine can still hit lefties fairly well.

There's the other half of the 1B platoon.

Shall we call them "Hattenine" or "CoBerg"?

How bout Pops.

westofyou
12-21-2006, 03:11 PM
Okay, Jeff Conine is older than I am.

But has he seen Midnight Madness?

Heath
12-21-2006, 03:13 PM
You might also get two minor league prospects in a trade for Conine come July when a contender needs a veteran bat off the bench.

It's another accessory.

However, I think that if they were chasing Craig Wilson (which I get the opinion that they weren't) that would probably signal the end of it.

NJReds
12-21-2006, 03:13 PM
Here are his 2005 numbers v. RH pitching:

.271 avg, .320 oba, .398 slg, .718 ops

Wow, break out the happy snacks. The guy plays the game the right way and knows how to win...:barf:

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:14 PM
Here are his 2005 numbers v. RH pitching:

.271 avg, .320 oba, .398 slg, .718 ops

Wow, break out the happy snacks. The guy plays the game the right way and knows how to win...:barf:

What are the #s vs LHP, since that's basically what he'll be facing next year....


Wait, is this some sort of Marc Lancaster joke since he's leaving to go to Tampa. Marc, you almost got me. You can't PUNK me, Marc!

medford
12-21-2006, 03:15 PM
FWIW, Lance is reporting that Javon Moran is one of the 2 prospects. I forget who the other name was. I liked Javon, but I imagine that he's expendable w/ Bruce, and Stubbs (who many here don't like, but I assume the front office still does) around for the future amongst others.

NJReds
12-21-2006, 03:16 PM
What are the #s vs LHP, since that's basically what he'll be facing next year....


Wait, is this some sort of Marc Lancaster joke since he's leaving to go to Tampa. Marc, you almost got me. You can't PUNK me, Marc!


.260 avg, .337 oba, .400 slg, .737 ops :beerme:

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:17 PM
FWIW, Lance is reporting that Javon Moran is one of the 2 prospects. I forget who the other name was. I liked Javon, but I imagine that he's expendable w/ Bruce, and Stubbs (who many here don't like, but I assume the front office still does) around for the future amongst others.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Javon Moran a player we got from the Phils organization? I guess they wanted him back :dunno:

kheidg-
12-21-2006, 03:18 PM
To make room for Conine looks like the Reds DFA Brendon Harris

Mainspark
12-21-2006, 03:19 PM
CINCINNATI (AP) — The Reds acquired outfielder Jeff Conine from the Philadelphia Phillies for a pair of minor leaguers Thursday, adding to their depth in the outfield.
Conine, 40, hit .268 last season with 10 homers and 66 RBIs for Baltimore and Philadelphia. The Phillies got him from Baltimore in a trade last August.
The Reds have been looking for help in the outfield since sending right fielder Austin Kearns to Washington in an eight-player deal last season. They also traded outfielder Wily Mo Pena to Boston during spring training for Bronson Arroyo.
Seven players started in right field last season. Center fielder Ken Griffey Jr. and left fielder Adam Dunn return for next season.

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:20 PM
The Reds have reportedly acquired Jeff Conine from the Phillies for two minor leaguers.

It doesn't matter who the minor leaguers are; it's already a good trade for the Phillies. The Phillies only wanted Conine for last year anyway, and would have acquired him from the Orioles earlier in August if not for his vesting option for 2007. Conine is adequate insurance for the Reds in right field, but the team already has better in Chris Denorfia, a superior defender with more offensive potential. As long as everyone is healthy, Conine's main role will be to act as Scott Hatteberg's platoon partner at first base.

As already said, to make room on the roster, the Reds designated 2B Brendan Harris (acquired in the Lopez / Kearns trade, you know "the trade") for assignment.

edabbs44
12-21-2006, 03:22 PM
Bad news: It doesn't look like they have much faith in Deno.

Good news: At least WK didn't sign him to an extension a la Cormier.

Edd Roush
12-21-2006, 03:22 PM
To make room for Conine looks like the Reds DFA Brendon Harris

THE *Trade* looks better each and every day. :(

Az. Reds Fan
12-21-2006, 03:25 PM
Good news: At least WK didn't sign him to an extension a la Cormier

Bad news: yet.

CTA513
12-21-2006, 03:26 PM
From Marcs blog:


UPDATE: The Reds sent infielder Brad Key and outfielder Javon Moran to the Phillies for Conine. Brendan Harris was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster

NJReds
12-21-2006, 03:28 PM
What are the #s vs LHP, since that's basically what he'll be facing next year....


For comparison, here are Craig Wilson's career #'s v: LH pitching

.296 avg, .395 oba, .543 slg, .938 ops

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:32 PM
For comparison, here are Craig Wilson's career #'s v: LH pitching

.296 avg, .395 oba, .543 slg, .938 ops

I know this sounds completely rediculous and westofyou you can yell at me for being an impatient fan (who's in what have you done for me lately mode), but this deal, for whatever reason, just screams at me and tells me that the Reds will not be competitive for a long time. I'm no longer hopeful for 2008. I just don't think we'll see the Reds make the playoffs for a long time. Yeah, I'm going to love seeing Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce come up (unless they are traded), but other than that, there's really not much to get excited about anymore. I know, I know. Over-reaction. This guy is the 23rd man, etc, etc. I have just lost the faith. I have. I can't help it. I don't know how to explain it, but this move just crushed me as a fan

Heath
12-21-2006, 03:32 PM
For comparison, here are Craig Wilson's career #'s v: LH pitching

.296 avg, .395 oba, .543 slg, .938 ops

According to yahoo!, Wilson wants to start somewhere.

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:35 PM
According to yahoo!, Wilson wants to start somewhere.

Well, technically he would be guaranteed to start at 1B vs LHP. Who knows? If Hatteberg regresses like we all expect, or injuries hit in the OF, who knows, maybe he could get a lot more starts here than somewhere else...

NJReds
12-21-2006, 03:35 PM
According to yahoo!, Wilson wants to start somewhere.

Since he's better then our current 1st baseman and RF, I don't think that'd be an issue.

Spring~Fields
12-21-2006, 03:38 PM
As for the current Reds, Castellini said more moves may be coming.

"We're out there looking," he said. "The money that's been thrown around is unbelievable, and in some cases irresponsible. But we'll do something when the time is right. We're looking."

:laugh:

Yeah I can see that Bob,

something is right!

Next time don't strain yourself so much.

Got to watch those indicators(Moeller, Hamilton, Livingston, Crosby, Conine) fans.........they telegraph a lot.

LoganBuck
12-21-2006, 03:39 PM
Ok just today I was ok with the Reds standing still. This move makes me want to puke. This is what we have to look forward to. Javon Moran was a very nice trading piece, and Brandon Harris, would have made a more attractive platoon option than Conine imo, and could have been useful. Conine is old and the opposite of good.

Johnny Footstool
12-21-2006, 03:39 PM
But has he seen Midnight Madness?

If he had HBO in the early '80s, I guarantee he has.

traderumor
12-21-2006, 03:40 PM
I'm thinking Wilson is still waiting on someone to pay him what he wants, but as of yet, no one has bit.

Kc61
12-21-2006, 03:40 PM
I like this move.

First base is a stopgap position for the Reds. Votto is the future guy. So a one-year player probably makes more sense than a long-term deal, such as Craig Wilson probably wants.

Conine is now an older player, but he still can fill in for the corner outfielders when necessary. I don't think this move has anything to do with Denorfia, a center fielder, who fills a different role. I wanted someone who can play both first and outfield.

Conine has always been a very solid player. I don't expect too much at this stage, but he will only play against lefties, probably hit sixth, and I think he is adequate to fill this role.

If the Reds are trying to get a pitcher, it leaves money available. It would have been a mistake to overspend for a platoon first sacker. For a solid pitcher, I think you have to open the wallet a little.

Last, but not least, it shows that the Reds have a pulse. As for Harris, I have no opinion except, to me, the key to the "trade" will always be Majewski and his performance in the next couple of years will tell the tale.

Finally, I think some folks are overvaluing players like Moran. AA outfielders like him just don't bring back that much.

Heath
12-21-2006, 03:41 PM
From Marcs blog:

It's technically CTrent's blog now......but I'm not trying to be techincal......

:D

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:41 PM
If he had HBO in the early '80s, I guarantee he has.

Ahhh! I missed this the first time around (when woy said it), but when you said this, I totally know what movie you are talking about.

I loved that movie! :laugh:

Gallen5862
12-21-2006, 03:42 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/content/printer_friendly/cin/y2006/m12/d21/c1765845
Reds acquire Conine from Phillies
12/21/2006 3:06 PM ET
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- In pursuit of a right-handed hitter this offseason, the Reds acquired veteran Jeff Conine from the Phillies for two Minor Leaguers on Thursday.
Last season, Conine batted .268 with 10 home runs and 66 RBIs for the Orioles and Phillies. He was dealt from Baltimore to Philadelphia on Aug. 27.

A 16-year veteran, and two-time All-Star in 1994-95, Conine is a .286 career hitter. He was a member of the Marlins' World Series championship teams in 1997 and 2003.

Cincinnati wanted a versatile player that could play first base and Conine would fit that bill. He's played 935 games at first base and 928 games in the outfield over the course of his career.

To make room on the Reds' 40-man roster, infielder Brendan Harris was designated for assignment.

Going to Philadelphia are infielder Brad Key and outfielder Javon Moran. Key spent last season with Class A Dayton and Sarasota, while Moran spent time in Sarasota and at Double-A Chattanooga.

This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Johnny Footstool
12-21-2006, 03:43 PM
Ahhh! I missed this the first time around (when woy said it), but when you said this, I totally know what movie you are talking about.

I loved that movie! :laugh:

Michael J. Fox before he added the J.

kheidg-
12-21-2006, 03:44 PM
At least the player (Conine) that Krivsky got to platoon with Hatteberg doesn't also play 3B to take at bats away from Edwin whenever Narron sees fit.

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 03:46 PM
Michael J. Fox before he added the J.

Faga-beefy? :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

That's the same one, right?

Good stuff.

Roy Tucker
12-21-2006, 03:47 PM
They actually had to trade players for him?

I figured he'd be holding a sign on the interstate off ramp saying "will hit for food".

paintmered
12-21-2006, 03:48 PM
Time to print the World Series tickets.

Spring~Fields
12-21-2006, 03:48 PM
They actually had to trade players for him?

I figured he'd be holding a sign on the interstate off ramp saying "will hit for food".

:laugh: :laugh: or $1 dollar hotdogs! :laugh:

kheidg-
12-21-2006, 03:52 PM
It's kind of funny though that Krivsky trades for him now when he passed on him last year in favor of Hollandsworth.

The Phillies gave up Angel Chavez (a 25 yr old 3B at AA) for Conine last August. Now the Reds give up Javon Moran for him when they could have likely had him cheaper last August.

Moran may not amount to anything in the long run but considering what the Phillies gave up for him in August this is a trade where Gillick likely got the better hand.

M2
12-21-2006, 03:53 PM
The Reds and Phillies swap Javon Moran like teenagers swap spit I tell you. Cincinnati will get him back for Mike Stanton this summer.

Anyway, Moran and Key are a neglible price to pay for anyone. Conine might be able to milk a decent year out of himself (though he's been pretty forgettable against LHPs the past two seasons). A platoon 1B is never going to be a big splash move and this one is no exception. All of the important moves still need to be made.

Edd Roush
12-21-2006, 03:57 PM
. All of the important moves still need to be made.



M2 in all seriousness, other than a #3 SP what other moves do need to be made? I thought that all that was left on the dockett was a good plattoon 1B and a #3 starter? What else do the Reds need to do?

Heath
12-21-2006, 03:58 PM
The Reds and Phillies swap Javon Moran like teenagers swap spit I tell you. Cincinnati will get him back for Mike Stanton this summer.

Anyway, Moran and Key are a neglible price to pay for anyone. Conine might be able to milk a decent year out of himself (though he's been pretty forgettable against LHPs the past two seasons). A platoon 1B is never going to be a big splash move and this one is no exception. All of the important moves still need to be made.

But this makes too much sense, in most people's eyes this is another example of re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. :rolleyes:

Mark my words. On the day after Christmas we will get either a "Trade Adam Dunn" thread or a "Why our FO Sucks" thread, or the trifecta of "When is our Big move" thread.

For the love of Pete, it's JUST Jeff Conine. And he's Bizzaro Scott Hatteburg.

Breathe in and out. Enjoy Christmas.

Doc. Scott
12-21-2006, 03:58 PM
The Reds and Phillies swap Javon Moran like teenagers swap spit I tell you. Cincinnati will get him back for Mike Stanton this summer.

Anyway, Moran and Key are a neglible price to pay for anyone. Conine might be able to milk a decent year out of himself (though he's been pretty forgettable against LHPs the past two seasons). A platoon 1B is never going to be a big splash move and this one is no exception. All of the important moves still need to be made.

The DFAing of Harris bothers me more than the loss of Moran. Key was a 48th-round draft pick who hasn't hit. Javon may scrape the majors, but right now we're talking about a guy with a realistic Orlando Palmeiro upside and an infinitesmal chance of Kenny Lofton. But I thought Brendan was a guy who could possibly help the club, and it annoyed me that Wayne spent the time to acquire him only to see him given squat for playing time at the end of 2006.

I don't mind the move in general, although it will be humorous when Krivsky sends Mr. Marlin back to his home team in August (for Cody Ross, probably) so Jeff can retire in teal-bedecked style.

flyer85
12-21-2006, 04:00 PM
not sure if I should :laugh: or :cry:

with Hatty they will be quite the tandem. Scrappiness factor off the charts.

Edd Roush
12-21-2006, 04:02 PM
not sure if I should :laugh: or :cry:

I'm pretty sure you could try doing both. This trade is another laugher. I guess this would make more sense if Wilson goes on to sign a 5M+ a year contract, but if he goes on to sign a deal like 2 yr/ 6 mill, I'll be upset. Maybe there is no interest from Wilson, but you would have to think that Perez would like to play where his daddy was a star? I just don't get it.

westofyou
12-21-2006, 04:04 PM
M2 in all seriousness, other than a #3 SP what other moves do need to be made?

Get a RH CF to move Jr out of the way.

M2
12-21-2006, 04:04 PM
M2 in all seriousness, other than a #3 SP what other moves do need to be made? I thought that all that was left on the dockett was a good plattoon 1B and a #3 starter? What else do the Reds need to do?

The team probably needs a reliable RF too (hopefully Jr.'s there to start the season, but you can count on him missing big chunks of the season). It could really have stood a 1B upgrade too, but it's not going to happen. It was nice to get Scott Hatteberg's career season in 2006, but let's be honest, that was a pretty poor career season.

Ideally they'd get a young #5 starter in addition to a running mate for Harang and Arroyo. It would be real nice to see Eric Milton boxed out of a rotation job (plus, his health isn't something you can rely on).

I'm also still waiting on a hard thrower in the pen. The Reds REALLY need one of those.

Hoosier Red
12-21-2006, 04:06 PM
I thought Bray and Coffee threw pretty hard don't they?

Edd Roush
12-21-2006, 04:09 PM
The team probably needs a reliable RF too (hopefully Jr.'s there to start the season, but you can count on him missing big chunks of the season). It could really have stood a 1B upgrade too, but it's not going to happen. It was nice to get Scott Hatteberg's career season in 2006, but let's be honest, that was a pretty poor career season.

.

So in your opinion, do the Reds still have a shot at Craig Wilson/ Eduardo Perez or does this trade end all hope of that kind of deal?

redsmetz
12-21-2006, 04:10 PM
I like this move.

First base is a stopgap position for the Reds. Votto is the future guy. So a one-year player probably makes more sense than a long-term deal, such as Craig Wilson probably wants.

Conine is now an older player, but he still can fill in for the corner outfielders when necessary. I don't think this move has anything to do with Denorfia, a center fielder, who fills a different role. I wanted someone who can play both first and outfield.

Conine has always been a very solid player. I don't expect too much at this stage, but he will only play against lefties, probably hit sixth, and I think he is adequate to fill this role.

If the Reds are trying to get a pitcher, it leaves money available. It would have been a mistake to overspend for a platoon first sacker. For a solid pitcher, I think you have to open the wallet a little.
Last, but not least, it shows that the Reds have a pulse. As for Harris, I have no opinion except, to me, the key to the "trade" will always be Majewski and his performance in the next couple of years will tell the tale.

Finally, I think some folks are overvaluing players like Moran. AA outfielders like him just don't bring back that much.

According to Cot, his contract is:


$2M 2007 option vested with 539 PAs in 2006

acquired in trade 8/06
$1.16M remaining on contract, including remaining base salary, performance incentives & assignment (trade) bonus
may earn an additional $0.35M in incentives

Baltimore paid Philadelphia more than $0.5M as part of the deal

signed as a free agent 12/05
06:$1.7M, 07:$2M mutual option
2007 option vests with 450 Plate Appearances in 2006 (Conine retains right to void the option if it vests)

$0.75M in incentives

$0.2M in incentives based on games, including:

$25,000 for 80 g
$0.1M for 140 g

up to $0.55M in incentives for Plate Appearances 200-550

$0.25M assignment bonus if traded in 2006 or 2007

That's affordable, even with the incentives, which he reached last year, hence the vesting of this year. I agree, this helps solidfy the team. I'm not sure what another poster felt like this move shows the Reds don't care about 2008 and beyond. This doesn't effect that at all. It's one year, can be traded during the season if need be (albeit with a bonus - can he collect that twice?). He can play around various positions (yes, he's even played 67 games at 3rd - EEk! - and DH'd). I continue to think that Freel is expendable and on the market.

pedro
12-21-2006, 04:13 PM
How bout Pops.


How about Scoff?

guttle11
12-21-2006, 04:13 PM
Solid move. Let him play first against lefties and fill in for Freel/Dunn a couple times a month.

It adds a little cheap vetereness and a little scrappy depth on the side.

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 04:19 PM
According to Cot, his contract is:
That's affordable, even with the incentives, which he reached last year, hence the vesting of this year. I agree, this helps solidfy the team. I'm not sure what another poster felt like this move shows the Reds don't care about 2008 and beyond. This doesn't effect that at all. It's one year, can be traded during the season if need be (albeit with a bonus - can he collect that twice?). He can play around various positions (yes, he's even played 67 games at 3rd - EEk! - and DH'd). I continue to think that Freel is expendable and on the market.

That would be me. I guess what I'm saying is that this move, coupled with all of the other moves that have been made so far this offseason (Stanton, Gonzalez, et al) strikes me as the management team being totally cheap. They are trying to appease fans by signing players that will "plug gaps," and keep us from being terrible, yet not making moves to make us significantly better. They are not thinking creatively. They are not addressing the major holes in the club, because those "holes" may be too expensive (in their mind) to fix. They are not taking risks. They are, in my opinion, half-assing this thing.

I thought when the new ownership took over and the whole hurrah! speech was given, win now!, that things would be different. I thought Wayne Krivsky would be the guy to think outside the box, to think creatively, and make things happen. I don't get that feeling anymore, and that makes me sad. That's what this team needs. They need someone to change from the status quo. They need someone that sees things others don't see and to do what's best for the team. I don't think they have that guy. And that, to me, tells me that things aren't going to change in the near future. Not with this owner, not with this GM....

Strikes Out Looking
12-21-2006, 04:19 PM
While he's not going to hit 30 homers or .300, it gives the Reds the other 1b they needed until Votto is ready and doesn't take playing time away from EdE.

And I don't think it hurts Deno or Freel much. Let's face it, Jr. isn't playing 162 games nor is Freel. Deno will still get at least 300 plate appearances if the team looks in April as it does today.

flyer85
12-21-2006, 04:21 PM
That's affordable, even with the incentives.... the real issue is that he has ceased to be a useful player other than a PH. RA was light years beyond Conine.

dsmith421
12-21-2006, 04:23 PM
Just utterly laughable. Business as usual.

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 04:24 PM
Have I become FCB just days before Christmas?

Noooooooo! :laugh:

Kc61
12-21-2006, 04:26 PM
All of the Reds' off-season moves have been relatively low-cost. This should leave money for a starting pitcher. That is the key to all of this. Will they go get one?

flyer85
12-21-2006, 04:26 PM
Just utterly laughable. Business as usual.There went an extra 1.6M of payflex for what will very likely be below replacement level performance.

Unassisted
12-21-2006, 04:29 PM
About 5 years ago when I had a FBB team, Conine was a gem to have on my team because he was a dependable hitter who qualified to play OF, several infield positions and catcher. I wonder if he'll be plugged into various positions a la Rich Aurilia?

RFS62
12-21-2006, 04:32 PM
They have to make incremental inprovements every chance they get. All the little things add up.

There's plenty more to be done, but don't discount the small moves.

redsmetz
12-21-2006, 04:34 PM
But this makes too much sense, in most people's eyes this is another example of re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. :rolleyes:

Mark my words. On the day after Christmas we will get either a "Trade Adam Dunn" thread or a "Why our FO Sucks" thread, or the trifecta of "When is our Big move" thread.

For the love of Pete, it's JUST Jeff Conine. And he's Bizzaro Scott Hatteburg.

Breathe in and out. Enjoy Christmas.

Aren't those 24/7 threads, resurrected every day like some Return of The Zombies horror flick? Warner Cable's picked up the station "Trade Adam Dunn" details at 10, 11, 12...

TheBigLebowski
12-21-2006, 04:37 PM
And the Sceff Coberg era begins.

The scrappiest, grittiest veteran ever. Plays the game the right way.

dsmith421
12-21-2006, 04:39 PM
For the love of Pete, it's JUST Jeff Conine. And he's Bizzaro Scott Hatteburg.


It's just Juan Castro.
It's just Mike Stanton.
It's just Bubba Crosby.
It's just Chad Moeller.
It's just Kyle Lohse.
It's just David Weathers.
It's just Alex Gonzalez.
It's just Josh Hamilton.
It's just Jeff Conine.

Krivsky is building a 40-man roster chock full of "it's just" players. And spending well over $15M on them.

Mainspark
12-21-2006, 04:41 PM
Adds details, comments


CINCINNATI (AP) — The Reds acquired Jeff Conine from the Philadelphia Phillies for a pair of minor leaguers Thursday, giving them a right-handed hitter who can share a spot at first base and play the outfield.
Conine, 40, played outfield and first base with Baltimore and Philadelphia last season, hitting .268 with 10 homers and 66 RBIs. The Phillies acquired him in an August trade.
In exchange for Conine, the Phillies got infielder Brad Key and outfielder Javon Moran, both of whom played in the low minor leagues. To make room for Conine on their 40-man roster, the Reds designated infielder Brendan Harris for assignment to the minors.
One of the Reds’ offseason priorities was acquiring a right-handed hitter for a lineup that revolves around left-handed hitters Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr. and Scott Hatteberg. Conine initially might platoon with Hatteberg at first base.
“We talked about someone to go along with Scott Hatteberg,” manager Jerry Narron said. “He hits right-handers well, too, so he might see a lot of time against right-handed pitching. We’ll start out and see where it leads. I expect he’ll give us great at-bats either off the bench or in a platoon situation.”
Conine has played for Kansas City, Florida, Baltimore and Philadelphia during his 16-year career. He played in 151 games for the Marlins in 1997, when they beat Cleveland in seven games to win the World Series, and rejoined Florida for its title under manager Jack McKeon in 2003.
He opened last season with Baltimore, splitting his time between first base and the outfield. He played exclusively in the outfield for the Phillies, who obtained him in an August trade.
“It’s a little bit of a surprise, coming a couple of days before Christmas,” Conine said. “Obviously, I didn’t have a long tenure there in Philly. I know the Reds were a very competitive ballclub last year. I look forward to the challenge of making them a little better and competing for a spot.”
Conine will make $2 million in 2007, the final year on his contract.
“We were continuing to look for a quality right-handed hitter, whether through the trade route or free agency,” general manager Wayne Krivsky said. “We felt this was the best alternative. We had him on a list of players that might be acquired by trade to fill that role. The cost was right in terms of his contract.”
The Reds were looking for someone to fill the role vacated by free agent Rich Aurilia, who played various infield positions last season and led the club with a .300 average. He split time at first base with Hatteberg, starting 37 games there.
Conine also could spend some time in the outfield. The Reds opened camp with a four-man rotation last year, then traded Wily Mo Pena to Boston for right-hander Bronson Arroyo during spring training.
They also shipped starting right fielder Austin Kearns to Washington in an eight-player deal during the season. Ryan Freel played most of the games in right field after the trade.
Ken Griffey Jr. returns as the center fielder, and Adam Dunn is back in left.

redsfan4445
12-21-2006, 04:42 PM
I would have rather seen the Reds sign Craig Wilson.. guess the opening the pocket book was a joke.. since this 37yr old guy is cheaper... arrgg:thumbdown

flyer85
12-21-2006, 04:42 PM
They have to make incremental inprovements every chance they get. All the little things add up.

There's plenty more to be done, but don't discount the small moves.I would consider this incremental regression.

redsmetz
12-21-2006, 04:44 PM
I would have rather seen the Reds sign Craig Wilson.. guess the opening the pocket book was a joke.. since this 37yr old guy is cheaper... arrgg:thumbdown

Anyone consider the possibility that Wilson doesn't want to come here and be a part time player?

And here's a comment fromt he Phillies board about the trade. Most of the comments over there were against it, although not all


Bad trade. Conine is the type of player every team should want. He is a clutch hitter and a valuable bat off the bench. I don't think we'll get much out of the two players from the Reds, but unless we get another bat off the bench, we'll miss Conine. I'm skeptical about Werth because he has wrist injuries, and they affect a hitters' swing. I was thrilled when we picked up Conine last August, and was looking foward to having him for a full year. Why do I get an unesay feeling about this deal?

Ron Madden
12-21-2006, 04:46 PM
I would consider this incremental regression.

I would agree.

OldXOhio
12-21-2006, 04:48 PM
In all honesty, this isn't that big of a deal, IMO

Is it me or has this become the mantra around here with most every deal WK now does?

Spring~Fields
12-21-2006, 04:49 PM
That would be me. I guess what I'm saying is that this move, coupled with all of the other moves that have been made so far this offseason (Stanton, Gonzalez, et al) strikes me as the management team being totally cheap. They are trying to appease fans by signing players that will "plug gaps," and keep us from being terrible, yet not making moves to make us significantly better. They are not thinking creatively. They are not addressing the major holes in the club, because those "holes" may be too expensive (in their mind) to fix. They are not taking risks. They are, in my opinion, half-assing this thing.

I thought when the new ownership took over and the whole hurrah! speech was given, win now!, that things would be different. I thought Wayne Krivsky would be the guy to think outside the box, to think creatively, and make things happen. I don't get that feeling anymore, and that makes me sad. That's what this team needs. They need someone to change from the status quo. They need someone that sees things others don't see and to do what's best for the team. I don't think they have that guy. And that, to me, tells me that things aren't going to change in the near future. Not with this owner, not with this GM....

Very perceptive and excellent post.

dougdirt
12-21-2006, 04:55 PM
In exchange for Conine, the Phillies got infielder Brad Key and outfielder Javon Moran, both of whom played in the low minor leagues. To make room for Conine on their 40-man roster, the Reds designated infielder Brendan Harris for assignment to the minors.

Since when is AA low minors? Moran played at AA for all but a month of the season.

Red Leader
12-21-2006, 05:09 PM
I'm not sure what another poster felt like this move shows the Reds don't care about 2008 and beyond. This doesn't effect that at all.

Just to pick nits, I actually didn't say that this move shows the Reds don't care about 2008 and beyond, I said that I am less hopeful for 2008 and beyond.

If the Reds are going to put together a real strong solid core for the future, now is the time to start gathering minor league talent.

Homer Bailey will see some time in 2007. He'll be up for good in 2008. Joey Votto should be a full timer in 2008 (even with this move). Jay Bruce should hit the show in 2008. Edwin Encarnacion (I don't think) will even be arb eligible in 2008. Now is the time to put the talent together to add to that solid core. Those are now the guys of our future. The Adam Dunn's, Aaron Harang's (unless signed this offseason to a LTC) and Bronson Arroyo's will be too expensive to resign.

Spitball
12-21-2006, 05:20 PM
Anyone consider the possibility that Wilson doesn't want to come here and be a part time player?

I know it has been mentioned several times, but some posters don't seem to understand that "free will" part of the human make-up. To them, Krivsky should be able to bring a Wilson to town even without the promise of a full-time job. BTW, being the right handed batter in a platoon situation really sucks.

westofyou
12-21-2006, 05:30 PM
BTW, being the right handed batter in a platoon situation really sucks.

True, Conine against Ted Lily

.350/.391/.650/1.041 - 20 AB's

M2
12-21-2006, 05:30 PM
So in your opinion, do the Reds still have a shot at Craig Wilson/ Eduardo Perez or does this trade end all hope of that kind of deal?

I don't much see the point in Perez now. Wilson now only makes sense if the Reds move one of Jr. or Dunn.

WMR
12-21-2006, 05:30 PM
All of the Reds' off-season moves have been relatively low-cost. This should leave money for a starting pitcher. That is the key to all of this. Will they go get one?

Low cost -- Low value.

Amazing how those correlate.

Johnny Footstool
12-21-2006, 05:31 PM
And the Sceff Coberg era begins.



I prefer Jett Hattenine. It has a better rhythm, and TWO sets of double-t's.

WMR
12-21-2006, 05:33 PM
Is it me or has this become the mantra around here with most every deal WK now does?

I guess I'd prefer that over him getting taken out behind the woodshed a la Jimbo.

M2
12-21-2006, 05:34 PM
It's just Juan Castro.
It's just Mike Stanton.
It's just Bubba Crosby.
It's just Chad Moeller.
It's just Kyle Lohse.
It's just David Weathers.
It's just Alex Gonzalez.
It's just Josh Hamilton.
It's just Jeff Conine.

Krivsky is building a 40-man roster chock full of "it's just" players. And spending well over $15M on them.

Fair point. It would be nice to see a move that didn't warrant an "it's just" reaction.

WMR
12-21-2006, 05:35 PM
Fair point. It would be nice to see a move that didn't warrant an "it's just" reaction.

Some sick perverted war of attrition against us Reds fans??

M2
12-21-2006, 05:40 PM
About 5 years ago when I had a FBB team, Conine was a gem to have on my team because he was a dependable hitter who qualified to play OF, several infield positions and catcher. I wonder if he'll be plugged into various positions a la Rich Aurilia?

WOY used him as his primary RF in Strat this past year.

TheBigLebowski
12-21-2006, 05:56 PM
I prefer Jett Hattenine. It has a better rhythm, and TWO sets of double-t's.


I labored over this. I did like Jett Hattenine. Initially, I considered Jott Hattenine. Then changed it to Jett Hatteco. It began to sound too country to me. I vacillated back to using Scott's name first in the fusion and it just felt right, because Scott was here first and Jeff will spell him against lefties AT the position of first. Used Conine's last name first in the surname fusion because a platoon essentially means they'll be "co-first basemen."

Ergo, Sceff Coburg.

westofyou
12-21-2006, 06:02 PM
WOY used him as his primary RF in Strat this past year.

322 punchless ab's.

NAME OB% SLUG SB% RC RC/27
J.Conine .349 .398 .400 44.2 4.78

Caveat Emperor
12-21-2006, 06:11 PM
Fair point. It would be nice to see a move that didn't warrant an "it's just" reaction.

At this point in the offseason, I'm more concerned about the "What the hell..." reaction coming than anything else.

fisch11
12-21-2006, 07:06 PM
Eh....not so thrilled. If the Reds can get to the postseason in '07 he won't be a bad commodity off the bench. Two prospects though?

CrackerJack
12-21-2006, 07:11 PM
The guy plays the game the right way

Exactly what Krivsky said tonight on the radio, right on cue.

TRF
12-21-2006, 07:15 PM
If Joey Votto hits .380 with power this ST, I'm going to be hacked.

If Calvin Medlock has a sub 3.00 ERA this ST, I'm going to be hacked.

ditto Brad Salmon.

and Tom Shearn.

If Javon Moran hits .350 with good OB skills in ST for the Phillies I'm going to be hacked.

If JimBo claims Harris, and Harris makes the Nats squad out of ST as a utility guy, I'm going to be hacked.



It's just Juan Castro.
It's just Mike Stanton.
It's just Bubba Crosby.
It's just Chad Moeller.
It's just Kyle Lohse.
It's just David Weathers.
It's just Alex Gonzalez.
It's just Josh Hamilton.
It's just Jeff Conine.

How come it's never:

It's Barry Zito!
It's Scott Kazmir!
It's Carlos Zambrano!
It's Tim Hudson!
It's Erik Bedard!

No, we get guys I would have liked to have seen as members of the Reds in 1996, and guys I never wanted to see in a Reds uniform.

I know not every deal is going to be a blockbuster. But can he start making some moves that actually improve the club? Adding Jeff Conine, regardless of the cost, does NOT improve this club.

deltachi8
12-21-2006, 07:16 PM
Exactly what Krivsky said tonight on the radio, right on cue.

seriously? i have come to loathe (c) that statement.

Edd Roush
12-21-2006, 07:31 PM
\They are not thinking creatively.

See, this is where I disagree whole-heartedly. I give Krivsky an A in creativity. After quickly realizing that the market for starting pitchers was going to be astronomical, Krivsky decided he was going to have his team win in '07 with a bevy of bullpen arms. Instead of building his team the traditional way (through 5 solid Starting pitchers), Krivsky decided he needed to get bullpen arms, rather than overpay for marginal starting pitchers. Granted the quality of these bullpen arms is disputable, but Krivsky should be given credit for creativity on this front.

Furthermore, while many of his critics attribute sheer luck to the Phillips and Ross trades, I'll step out on a limb and attribute both of those trades to creativity. The offers for both players could be matched by other GMs, but they chose not to pursue them. Krivsky did what was necessary to take flyers on both of these young guys, and the '06 club reaped the benefits. Both had good years last year, and their value to us next year is of course disputable as well.

However, to blame Krivsky for creativity is missing the point. One could attack the quality of the pick-ups. But I think through building his team around the bullpen and taking flyers on guys who other GMs didnt, Krivsky is at least being creative.

OnBaseMachine
12-21-2006, 07:32 PM
Great. More veterans. Just what we need. Krivsky is attempting to challenge the Giants as the oldest team in baseball.

chicoruiz
12-21-2006, 07:32 PM
I prefer "Bergnine"; it reminds me of Ernest Borgnine, who is coincidentally about the same age as this duo.

redsmetz
12-21-2006, 07:34 PM
Eh....not so thrilled. If the Reds can get to the postseason in '07 he won't be a bad commodity off the bench. Two prospects though?

Moran might be a prospect, but Key only hit about .220 or so at Dayton. I don't think we gave up much.

OnBaseMachine
12-21-2006, 07:39 PM
Great. More veterans. Just what we need. Krivsky is attempting to challenge the Giants as the oldest team in baseball.

Wow. I got negged for this opinion. :laugh: By the same person who negged me a few weeks ago for having an opinion. Sweet. Way to abuse the system.

TRF
12-21-2006, 07:41 PM
Moran might be a prospect, but Key only hit about .220 or so at Dayton. I don't think we gave up much.

How about a spot on the 25 man roster. I think that's a lot.

TRF
12-21-2006, 07:42 PM
Wow. I got negged for this opinion. :laugh: By the same person who negged me a few weeks ago for having an opinion. Sweet. Way to abuse the system.

That's happened to me before. No biggie though. It's not like you will get sent to the kiddie table.

Falls City Beer
12-21-2006, 07:44 PM
I actually can't get too worked up about this move. Not that I think Conine will produce or anything, but I have to believe that Wayne will cut bait on him a la Womack if he doesn't produce.

vaticanplum
12-21-2006, 07:44 PM
This is the kind of move that I don't usually get worked up about. It's small, it fills a clear need for the time being, and little was given up for him.

Nevertheless I don't like it. He's just too old. He's in tandem with another old guy. Votto makes me understand a bit better, but still...too old. You have to be better than that to be allowed to be that old.

Oy. I hope this isn't the thing that pushes me over the top of the mountain to the downslope. I don't think it's a bad move, I just don't like it. When I saw the headline, i felt deflated.

traderumor
12-21-2006, 07:45 PM
Is this the guy?

http://a1259.g.akamai.net/f/1259/5586/5d/images.art.com/images/-/Arnold-Schwarzenegger---Conan-the-Barbarian--C10102058.jpeg

cincinnati chili
12-21-2006, 08:23 PM
While it's clear that Craig Wilson would have been a better option, he would have been more expensive (as pointed out above). He also wants to start.

But Conine is one of the least likable guys among the righty plattooners. If I'm not mistaken, Jeff Cirillo signed for about the same amount. Cirillo has KILLED lefties the last two years, plus he can play every position on the infield (the corners well, the middle less well). Plus, I don't think he's expecting to start on the Twins.

Eduardo Perez is someone I'd prefer to Conine too.

I'll defer to Krivsky for now. Hopefully, he knows something. I'll admit that Hatteberg exceeded expectations, and maybe Conine will do the same.

Edd Roush
12-21-2006, 08:34 PM
One would expect for the GAB to inflate his numbers, too.

Gallen5862
12-21-2006, 08:43 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/content/printer_friendly/cin/y2006/m12/d21/c1765845.jsp
Reds acquire Conine from Phillies
12/21/2006 5:07 PM ET
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- With the Reds in pursuit of a right-handed hitter most of this offseason, several names had surfaced as potential fits -- ranging from Craig Wilson to Eduardo Perez to Mark Loretta.
But Cincinnati general manager Wayne Krivsky, who prefers to work in the shadows while keeping all potential moves under the radar, acquired someone whose name was not so prominent in Hot Stove chatter.

It was Jeff Conine, who came over in a trade from the Phillies in exchange for Minor Leaguers Brad Key and Javon Moran on Thursday.

Scouring around to replace free-agent departure Rich Aurilia, Krivsky had kicked the tires on several right-handed hitters and spoke with agents and other clubs during the Winter Meetings. However, Conine's name only surfaced more recently.

"We just felt like this was our best alternative," Krivsky said. "It just came about really in the last couple of days. I had him on the list of players that might be acquired by trade to fill that type of role we've been looking for. We just felt after talking to all of our scouts that this was the best alternative that was available to us. The cost was right in terms of his contract, and also the players that were involved. We felt like it was a fair deal."

Last season, Conine batted .268 with 10 home runs and 66 RBIs for the Orioles and Phillies. He was dealt from Baltimore to Philadelphia on Aug. 27. A 16-year veteran, the 40-year-old is a .286 career hitter with a .348 on-base percentage and was a member of the Marlins' World Series champion teams in 1997 and 2003.

Conine will make $2 million in 2007 as part of an option that vested when he surpassed 450 plate appearances in 2006. He became expendable when the Phillies signed free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth on Wednesday.

"It was a little bit of a surprise, obviously, a couple of days before Christmas, to get the call from [Phillies GM] Pat Gillick," said Conine, the 46th player Krivsky has acquired since taking over in February. "I didn't have a long tenure there in Philadelphia and I know the Reds were a very competitive ball club last year. I'm looking forward to the challenge of making them a little better and competing for a playoff spot."



Complete coverage >

The Reds wanted their right-handed hitter to have experience at first base as a potential platoon complement for lefty hitting Scott Hatteberg. In Conine, Cincinnati gets someone who can play first and either corner outfield spot. The club currently has a vacancy in right field as well that Conine could split with Ryan Freel, Chris Denorfia, Bubba Crosby and others.

"[Outfield] is almost exclusively what I played with Philly," Conine said. "I played mostly first in Baltimore but some outfield, too. I'm as comfortable at both spots -- right, left or first."

"Sounds good to me," Reds manager Jerry Narron chimed in.

Not one that prefers to field the same lineup everyday, Narron envisioned taking advantage of Conine's versatility.

"He hits right-handed pitching real well too," Narron said. "So he might see a lot of time against right-handed pitching. We'll just talk this thing out and see where it leads, and we just expect him to give us great at-bats, whether it's off the bench or in a platoon or regular situation."

Conine, a two-time All-Star in 1994-95, is a career .303 hitter vs. lefties and a .280 hitter against right-handers. He isn't considered a power hitter, and his career-best 26 homers came a decade ago in 1996. But he should be someone that can take advantage of hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

To make room on the Reds' 40-man roster for Conine, infielder Brendan Harris was designated for assignment. Going to Philadelphia, Moran is an outfielder that batted .327 last season, combined at Class A Sarasota and Double-A Chattanooga. Key batted .220 between Class A Dayton and Sarasota.

This wasn't the first time Krivsky had tried to land Conine. As an assistant GM and National League scout for the Twins, he scouted him while Conine played for Florida. The Twins nearly signed Conine a couple of years ago before he decided to sign with Baltimore.

"He was someone I liked and admired as a scout," Krivsky said. "I liked the way he went about his business, real professional. He takes good at-bats. He's a tough out. He knows what he's doing at the plate. He can play different positions. He's just a classy veteran that I think will be a great addition to the team."

This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Puffy
12-21-2006, 08:45 PM
Apparently the Krivsky Reds are aiming to come in second in the league in returning soup.

flyer85
12-21-2006, 08:46 PM
seems pretty obvious that he was acquired to platoon with Hatty. The problem is he is missing platoon splits and has OPSed over 800 once in the last 10 years.

Harris DFAed as well, I thought he was a stud.

Aronchis
12-21-2006, 08:48 PM
This guy is as much a Transitional piece as Krivsky's "Transitional Progress" will allow. Easy cheap vets who can be thrown away.

Jackson

flyer85
12-21-2006, 08:49 PM
One would expect for the GAB to inflate his numbers, too.Citfed didn't seem to help and it is every bit as much as a hitters park as GABP

flyer85
12-21-2006, 08:50 PM
Easy cheap vets who should be thrown away.
fixed

Edd Roush
12-21-2006, 09:02 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/content/printer_friendly/cin/y2006/m12/d21/c1765845.jsp
\ Conine could split with Ryan Freel, Chris Denorfia, Bubba Crosby and others.



If Bubba Crosby sees any big league playing time, we are in big time trouble.

mth123
12-21-2006, 10:00 PM
But this makes too much sense, in most people's eyes this is another example of re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. :rolleyes:

Mark my words. On the day after Christmas we will get either a "Trade Adam Dunn" thread or a "Why our FO Sucks" thread, or the trifecta of "When is our Big move" thread.

For the love of Pete, it's JUST Jeff Conine. And he's Bizzaro Scott Hatteburg.

Breathe in and out. Enjoy Christmas.

I get what you are saying. But for me its more about the fact that this seems to be the solution at 1B. No more need to hold out hope for a Craig Wilson adding real thump to the line-up. Its not that Conine is terrible, but its another lost opportunity. We settle for Weathers in the closer role, Lohse as the #3 starter and Conine as our RH thump. Guys who all probably belong on a major league roster somewhere, but none of whom really address this teams problems playing in much larger roles than they should be.

Heath
12-21-2006, 10:34 PM
Maybe Craig Wilson doesn't want to play in Cincinnati? Has that ever been established? Maybe he feels he can go to the AL and DH along with his other defensive positions.

Sure, I'd love to have Craig Wilson play here. Seems like a good guy and a decent ballplayer. But maybe he doesn't want to be here.

I think the Reds not getting Craig Wilson, isn't all the FO's fault (which is being assumed A LOT around here). I think the FA market works both ways.

mth123
12-21-2006, 10:47 PM
Maybe Craig Wilson doesn't want to play in Cincinnati? Has that ever been established? Maybe he feels he can go to the AL and DH along with his other defensive positions.

Sure, I'd love to have Craig Wilson play here. Seems like a good guy and a decent ballplayer. But maybe he doesn't want to be here.

I think the Reds not getting Craig Wilson, isn't all the FO's fault (which is being assumed A LOT around here). I think the FA market works both ways.

Yeah, I get that about Wilson. But as a fan I had high hope that if the Reds turned their openings into assets, this team could be good. What happened though was replacement level talents like Weathers, Lohse and Conine have been tapped for those openings and will cost a collective $10 Million+. Wilson could have been had for something less than that and a regular role at 1B. And he, coupled with replacement level players instead of some of the questionable options who ate up the money, would have given this team a better chance than the choices made.

It seems that these "solutions" are no better than doing nothing. At least doing nothing leaves hope that something may happen tomorrow. Now we know what the choices are and IMO they leave the Reds in a dog fight with the Pirates for 5th place.

The posts you are reading are not necessarily hate for Conine, just the collective realization by many that hope for improvement is not likely realistic anymore. The spots that were open for bringing in talent have all been filled and no talent has been added.

RedRoser
12-21-2006, 11:06 PM
Is this the guy?

http://a1259.g.akamai.net/f/1259/5586/5d/images.art.com/images/-/Arnold-Schwarzenegger---Conan-the-Barbarian--C10102058.jpeg


No, that's Conan the Barbarian.

What we got is "Conine the Quinquagenarian." A lot less power, but no doubt "big" on veteran savvy and scrappiness. :help:

---RedRoser

LoganBuck
12-21-2006, 11:21 PM
Krivsky was on with Tom Gamble tonight. He threw out the usual crap, knows how to play the game, professional hitter, clubhouse presence, we have heard it before........

dsmith421
12-21-2006, 11:24 PM
Krivsky was on with Tom Gamble tonight. He threw out the usual crap, knows how to play the game, professional hitter, clubhouse presence, we have heard it before........

Do you think Krivsky realizes that most intelligent baseball fans consider that "plays the game right" crap to be incredibly insulting?

WVRedsFan
12-21-2006, 11:33 PM
Do you think Krivsky realizes that most intelligent baseball fans consider that "plays the game right" crap to be incredibly insulting?

I guess that's why he loves Jerry Narron so much. They speak the same language.

:bang:

traderumor
12-21-2006, 11:36 PM
One would expect for the GAB to inflate his numbers, too.That is the flip side of saying a pitcher friendly park would help Eric Milton. Imagine the inflation good players would experience.

traderumor
12-21-2006, 11:41 PM
Do you think Krivsky realizes that most intelligent baseball fans consider that "plays the game right" crap to be incredibly insulting?The second part of that question is, do you think he cares? He already knows that "intelligent baseball fans" will deadpan his every move and follow the team anyhow, so he speaks to the masses.

marcshoe
12-21-2006, 11:45 PM
Maybe it is "just" Jeff Conine, but making this choice at this time looks to me like a clear signal that competing this year isn't a priority for Krivsky. If Castellini is happy with that, he needs to publically retract his previous statements.

Falls City Beer
12-21-2006, 11:49 PM
The second part of that question is, do you think he cares? He already knows that "intelligent baseball fans" will deadpan his every move and follow the team anyhow, so he speaks to the masses.

I suppose (assume) he doesn't care. But "follow" is a relative term--sure, we'll follow them no matter what, but then, ironically, it's not us he should be after.

And I'm not sure "unintelligent" baseball fans are going to be particularly alert at all to the prospect of Jeff Conine playing for the Reds. In fact, I see most of them getting to the park on Opening Day and saying, "When did we pick up Conine?"

Reds1
12-21-2006, 11:53 PM
I'm just hoping this is a signing that comes with a bigger signing down the road. I'm ok with filling gaps and keeping it cheap as long as we eventually step up and get a big pitcher or a hitter. This deal is bascially replacing Aurilia at what 1/2 the money. He's been a good hitter, but man he'll be 41, but it's just a one year stop gap for Votto IMO or if Votto can come through he becomes a Utility PH guy. TBC

reds44
12-21-2006, 11:58 PM
Well there is the 1st base platoon partner, and COF helper. Not bad.

However, Wayne can we get some guys that are below 35? kthxbye

WMR
12-22-2006, 12:00 AM
It's just really ironic that Aurilia's replacement is so much older than he was...

reds44
12-22-2006, 12:05 AM
Krivsky was on with Tom Gamble tonight. He threw out the usual crap, knows how to play the game, professional hitter, clubhouse presence, we have heard it before........
What does that even mean?

Reds1
12-22-2006, 12:25 AM
Good hitter especially against righties and a scrapy vet. I guess that's what he means. This seems to be Wayne's MO

Jpup
12-22-2006, 01:06 AM
i hate it but I hope he plays well for the Reds. Krivsky is now starting to bug me a little. I'll wait until opening day to be sure how much.

Chip R
12-22-2006, 01:14 AM
The second part of that question is, do you think he cares? He already knows that "intelligent baseball fans" will deadpan his every move and follow the team anyhow, so he speaks to the masses.


I think that's it right there. He knows that a lot of fans out there are sick of guys like Dunn and Kearns and Lopez and Encarnacion who strike out a lot and/or are bad defensive players. Fans loved a guy like Aurilia who made a lot of contact and produced - as well they should have. So he's a little up there in years. So he's lost a few steps in the field. As long as he doesn't strike out a lot and makes the routine play, he Plays The Game The Right Way and he also Knows How To Win. It's really a charade, though. Wayne's loading up on vets to show fans that he's serious about winning now while trying to build the farm system. This might turn out well. After all, most of us panned the Aurilia signing and after a slow beginning he turned out pretty good and got us a couple of draft picks to boot. But I don't see it with Conine.

Topcat
12-22-2006, 01:23 AM
MY feelings on this acquisition are a ya ok whatever. The long term hope I have is we keep him enamored with this organization and hire him as a coach or scout. He never cheats you with his effort or attitude. If he ends up staying on in a scouting or coaching capacity then his acquisition to me is well worth what we gave up.

GAC
12-22-2006, 02:53 AM
See, this is where I disagree whole-heartedly. I give Krivsky an A in creativity. After quickly realizing that the market for starting pitchers was going to be astronomical, Krivsky decided he was going to have his team win in '07 with a bevy of bullpen arms. Instead of building his team the traditional way (through 5 solid Starting pitchers), Krivsky decided he needed to get bullpen arms, rather than overpay for marginal starting pitchers. Granted the quality of these bullpen arms is disputable, but Krivsky should be given credit for creativity on this front.

Furthermore, while many of his critics attribute sheer luck to the Phillips and Ross trades, I'll step out on a limb and attribute both of those trades to creativity. The offers for both players could be matched by other GMs, but they chose not to pursue them. Krivsky did what was necessary to take flyers on both of these young guys, and the '06 club reaped the benefits. Both had good years last year, and their value to us next year is of course disputable as well.

However, to blame Krivsky for creativity is missing the point. One could attack the quality of the pick-ups. But I think through building his team around the bullpen and taking flyers on guys who other GMs didnt, Krivsky is at least being creative.

Excellent post.

I have not been "on board" with some of Krivsky's moves, and scratch my head over some of them; but when you look at the overall state of MLB today and the plight of smaller market teams with somewhat limited budgets - under the current financial structure they are never going to be able to spend with the "big boys".... you nailed it!

They have to be creative, and yes, take risks.

A bigger market club with greater financial resources can take those risks with a Gary Mathews, Lily, or Marquis contract. A team like the Reds cannot. There is very little room for error (ex- contracts like Jr and Milton).

But they can take low risks on players like you have mentioned. And if they don't work out, there has been little damage done.

GAC
12-22-2006, 03:11 AM
No, that's Conan the Barbarian.

What we got is "Conine the Quinquagenarian." A lot less power, but no doubt "big" on veteran savvy and scrappiness. :help:

---RedRoser

So basically this Conan then. ;)

http://images.usatoday.com/life/_photos/2006/02/08/conan.jpg

Which is a plus if we have any late night/extra inning games, because after midnight he plays the game the right way! :lol:

GAC
12-22-2006, 03:17 AM
I think that's it right there. He knows that a lot of fans out there are sick of guys like Dunn and Kearns and Lopez and Encarnacion who strike out a lot and/or are bad defensive players. Fans loved a guy like Aurilia who made a lot of contact and produced - as well they should have. So he's a little up there in years. So he's lost a few steps in the field. As long as he doesn't strike out a lot and makes the routine play, he Plays The Game The Right Way and he also Knows How To Win. It's really a charade, though. Wayne's loading up on vets to show fans that he's serious about winning now while trying to build the farm system. This might turn out well. After all, most of us panned the Aurilia signing and after a slow beginning he turned out pretty good and got us a couple of draft picks to boot. But I don't see it with Conine.

I think you nailed it in the "highlighted" sentence. These are 1 year/stopgap players, low risk, little investment made in contracts that can, if needed, be dumped with very little impact on this club financially.

Unlike previous guaranteed contracts such as Jr, Graves, Casey, Milton, which didn't work out too well and have hurt this organization in the long run.

And being done to buy time for younger player development, such as Votto and Bruce, and to build some sort of foundation in the farm system.

Spring~Fields
12-22-2006, 04:26 AM
Yeah, I get that about Wilson. But as a fan I had high hope that if the Reds turned their openings into assets, this team could be good. What happened though was replacement level talents like Weathers, Lohse and Conine have been tapped for those openings and will cost a collective $10 Million+. Wilson could have been had for something less than that and a regular role at 1B. And he, coupled with replacement level players instead of some of the questionable options who ate up the money, would have given this team a better chance than the choices made.

It seems that these "solutions" are no better than doing nothing. At least doing nothing leaves hope that something may happen tomorrow. Now we know what the choices are and IMO they leave the Reds in a dog fight with the Pirates for 5th place.

The posts you are reading are not necessarily hate for Conine, just the collective realization by many that hope for improvement is not likely realistic anymore. The spots that were open for bringing in talent have all been filled and no talent has been added.

Laid out so well and mapping them all the way. Even the casual fan can see the writing on the wall. Finally a fan that really gets it. Good post

Spring~Fields
12-22-2006, 05:02 AM
Unlike previous guaranteed contracts such as Jr, Graves, Casey, Milton, which didn't work out too well and have hurt this organization in the long run.



I would have to disagree that “contracts” have hurt this team and organization.

Poor player and talent evaluation, poor management, and lousy long term planning has hurt this team and is continuing to hurt this teams chances of winning. The Cardinals have been years ahead of the Reds in the same volatile market and even with the “contracts” their management has shown that they know how to run an entertainment business. The Cards investors enjoy a return, the teams playing for a winner and making the big dollar, as their fans fill the stands with an anticipation of seeing a good product on the field and winning. The "contract" isn't a problem for competent management. The Reds fans, well, they have to be happy losing.

redsmetz
12-22-2006, 06:18 AM
Just to pick nits, I actually didn't say that this move shows the Reds don't care about 2008 and beyond, I said that I am less hopeful for 2008 and beyond.

If the Reds are going to put together a real strong solid core for the future, now is the time to start gathering minor league talent.

Homer Bailey will see some time in 2007. He'll be up for good in 2008. Joey Votto should be a full timer in 2008 (even with this move). Jay Bruce should hit the show in 2008. Edwin Encarnacion (I don't think) will even be arb eligible in 2008. Now is the time to put the talent together to add to that solid core. Those are now the guys of our future. The Adam Dunn's, Aaron Harang's (unless signed this offseason to a LTC) and Bronson Arroyo's will be too expensive to resign.

Thanks for clarifying my representation of your comment (I should have opened another screen and brought your actual comment up in front of me). But I still don't see it that way.

I was thinking about this last night. While many folks have decried the Reds doing "more of the same" and "accepting" not contending, I think they're trying to shape the current club to be [U]nominally[U] competitive (and that's open to debate whether they're succeeding) with an eye toward the future. I'm not sure if you're suggesting by your closing paragraph that you would choose the "blow it up" model. But I don't think getting rid of the few horses we have currently is the best method. We need to see about getting those LTC's you mention on the likes of Harrang, Dunn and Arroyo (presuming that's possible - it might not be).

At the same time, though, I'll repeat what I said above. We have to put a reasonably competitive team on the field to hold fan interest. I think a number of these offseason moves are doing that. We're not going to be the 27 Yankees or the 76 Reds, but we might be able to be what we were last year plus a tiny bit more, which is all we needed. How the rest of the division shakes out, who knows? But I don't see them selling our future for today.

Elsewhere I mentioned we've got a lot of behind the scenes work to do. Rebuilding the minor league system, which will require bettering our scouting staff, etc. Those will take time.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 08:12 AM
I suppose (assume) he doesn't care. But "follow" is a relative term--sure, we'll follow them no matter what, but then, ironically, it's not us he should be after.

And I'm not sure "unintelligent" baseball fans are going to be particularly alert at all to the prospect of Jeff Conine playing for the Reds. In fact, I see most of them getting to the park on Opening Day and saying, "When did we pick up Conine?"
Yea, that's basically my point, he doesn't care that "intelligent baseball fans" are insulted by these comments (I'm not, so I must not be an intelligent baseball fan). Inane comments like these will satisfy the passer by who is not deeply thinking about the Reds now or in the near future.

Falls City Beer
12-22-2006, 08:44 AM
Yea, that's basically my point, he doesn't care that "intelligent baseball fans" are insulted by these comments (I'm not, so I must not be an intelligent baseball fan). Inane comments like these will satisfy the passer by who is not deeply thinking about the Reds now or in the near future.

And what I'm saying is that the casual fan won't even know this transaction has occurred.

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 08:58 AM
Yeah, I get that about Wilson. But as a fan I had high hope that if the Reds turned their openings into assets, this team could be good. What happened though was replacement level talents like Weathers, Lohse and Conine have been tapped for those openings and will cost a collective $10 Million+. Wilson could have been had for something less than that and a regular role at 1B. And he, coupled with replacement level players instead of some of the questionable options who ate up the money, would have given this team a better chance than the choices made.

It seems that these "solutions" are no better than doing nothing. At least doing nothing leaves hope that something may happen tomorrow. Now we know what the choices are and IMO they leave the Reds in a dog fight with the Pirates for 5th place.

The posts you are reading are not necessarily hate for Conine, just the collective realization by many that hope for improvement is not likely realistic anymore. The spots that were open for bringing in talent have all been filled and no talent has been added.

Excellent post, mth123. This is basically what I'm getting at. There were opportunities for the Reds to improve this offseason. The new owner is crying WIN NOW!, the new GM came in and wanted to shape the club in his mold, there was money available to them via the TV deal. All momentum leading up to making a big splash, right? What do we get? Alex Gonzalez at SS, Kyle Lohse as our #3 starter, David Weathers or Mike Stanton as our closer...in other words, jogging in place. I'm not ok with that. There's no reason not to expect more. Even though this move (Conine) as well as some of the other moves don't hurt us long term (that's a secondary concern to me), they didn't improve our team for next year and they should have. They had every opportunity to do so and they chose the jogging in place model because they saw what the market was like this offseason and the contacts being signed and they backed down and said "we're a small market team, we can't do those things, we can't spend that money, we'll sign these crappy vets to bridge the gap until either A) the market comes back down and we can afford someone that will help (won't happen) or B) our farm system starts to produce and gives us players that can produce (will take a lot of time before that actually helps)." Our minor league system just isn't strong enough, top to bottom, to follow course B. And to top that off, it seems like every time one of these "minor" deals is announced, we're actually depleting our farms system more and adding "scrappy veterans."


Excellent post.

I have not been "on board" with some of Krivsky's moves, and scratch my head over some of them; but when you look at the overall state of MLB today and the plight of smaller market teams with somewhat limited budgets - under the current financial structure they are never going to be able to spend with the "big boys".... you nailed it!

They have to be creative, and yes, take risks.

A bigger market club with greater financial resources can take those risks with a Gary Mathews, Lily, or Marquis contract. A team like the Reds cannot. There is very little room for error (ex- contracts like Jr and Milton).

But they can take low risks on players like you have mentioned. And if they don't work out, there has been little damage done.


So you guys are complimenting Wayne Krisky for being "creative?" I'd say you're confusing "creative" with "cheap." We need a big horse in the rotation to stick with Harang and Arroyo and to a lesser extent, another arm to put in the rotation. Those are the most important moves this team can make, IMO. Why? Pretty simple...to get Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse out of the rotation and give us a chance to win more than 1/4 of those games that would be started by those 2. Wayne got scared off by the dollars that free agent pitchers were getting this offseason. That's ok. I think most of them were overpaid and will be albatross contacts in a year or two anyway. I'm fine with that. But what does Wayne do? Nothing. Noth-ing. He side-steps the problem. Doesn't even attempt to fix it.

As for improving the bullpen (which you complimented him for being creative by doing), what does that help? Our offense has been depleted (thanks for the trade of Kearns / Lopez for some failed bullpen arms). We will no longer score as many runs as we did last year. The defense has been somewhat improved, but it still doesn't offset the loss we've had on offense. Because the bullpen arms he acquired in the previous trade didn't pan out and starters are too expensive for him, he decides to address that area again this offseason. Problems is, we're running out of chips, so he has to go the cheap route. But what good is bringing in bullpen help at this point? Our starters (other than the first 2) are going to give up about 5-6 runs in the first 5 innings. Our hitters won't be able to score 5-6 runs in those 5 innings anymore, there aren't enough of them that can get on base, or drive them in. So how much is this bullpen makeover going to help? Even if we had Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner and B.J. Ryan to pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th (which, incidentally, we still have no one close to any of them), we're still likely to lose those games. So, I guess I understand where you are saying Krivsky is being "creative." I guess you could call anyone that does anything "unconventional", "creative." But, I'd argue that his "creativity" is doing absolutely nothing to help this ball club. I'd rather he be doing other "creative" things like trying to acquire talent for the big league team, or the minors that actually give us a shot at winning at some point in the future.

shredda2000
12-22-2006, 09:14 AM
I'm just hoping this is a signing that comes with a bigger signing down the road. I'm ok with filling gaps and keeping it cheap as long as we eventually step up and get a big pitcher or a hitter. This deal is bascially replacing Aurilia at what 1/2 the money. He's been a good hitter, but man he'll be 41, but it's just a one year stop gap for Votto IMO or if Votto can come through he becomes a Utility PH guy. TBC

Right On!!! Kriv is filling all the gaps, looking at the roster and then will land the big one!!! Here's to hoping for that #1, #2 or #3 starter!!!

KEEP HOPE ALIVE!!! :thumbup:

redsmetz
12-22-2006, 09:21 AM
Right On!!! Kriv is filling all the gaps, looking at the roster and then will land the big one!!! Here's to hoping for that #1, #2 or #3 starter!!!

KEEP HOPE ALIVE!!! :thumbup:

So this is what it comes down to? Arroyo and Harrang are chopped liver, no better than a #4? Hogwash! I agree we need a true #3, but our top two pitchers stand shoulder to shoulder with most other team's top two pitchers.

Why is the perception so common around here that every other teams' pitchers will excell and our's will stink up the universe? That every other pitcher out there will not regress, but our's will?

Our's is not a perfect team and I assume more moves remain between now and Opening Day, but whining and crying about a work in progress seems useless to me. When folks here were children, did you cry like this when your folks were assembling a bicycle? "Mommy, it's not going to work! Daddy, it's a crummy bike, I don't even want it! Tear it apart and make me another one!".

Oy Vey!

RBA
12-22-2006, 09:31 AM
What? Steve Garvey wasn't avaiable?

M2
12-22-2006, 09:31 AM
Our's is not a perfect team and I assume more moves remain between now and Opening Day, but whining and crying about a work in progress seems useless to me. When folks here were children, did you cry like this when your folks were assembling a bicycle? "Mommy, it's not going to work! Daddy, it's a crummy bike, I don't even want it! Tear it apart and make me another one!".

Oy Vey!

No, but we didn't watch our dads try to assemble a bike using wood glue either.

shredda2000
12-22-2006, 09:32 AM
Sorry...that is not what I meant. If we acquire a pitcher that is a potential #1, #2 or #3, then Harang and Arroyo would fill out the other two spots. IMO, Harang and Arroyo were one of the best 1-2 combinations in the league...we just need another complement to the equation...

redsmetz
12-22-2006, 09:39 AM
Sorry...that is not what I meant. If we acquire a pitcher that is a potential #1, #2 or #3, then Harang and Arroyo would fill out the other two spots. IMO, Harang and Arroyo were one of the best 1-2 combinations in the league...we just need another complement to the equation...

Ah, then we're on the same page. Sorry for going off on you, I really thought your were diminishing what Arroyo and Harrang accomplished. :redface:

shredda2000
12-22-2006, 09:42 AM
Ah, then we're on the same page. Sorry for going off on you, I really thought your were diminishing what Arroyo and Harrang accomplished. :redface:

Just passionate about your Reds...I'm there with ya :thumbup:

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 09:53 AM
More evidence today from the Enquirer:


If Jeff Conine is the right-handed bat the Reds were seeking, are they done making moves - at least for position players?

"Done never happens," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said.

Getting Conine at a $2 million salary may open the way for the Reds to pursue more pitching.


Krivsky said at the winter meetings that the Reds were willing to spend "close" to the $8 million former Cincinnati infielder Rich Aurilia got over two years when he signed with San Francisco this offseason.

There's a long list of serviceable pitchers unsigned: Tony Armas, Keith Foulke, Dustin Hermanson, Dan Kolb, Tomo Ohka, Chris Reitsma, Arthur Rhodes, Scott Schoeneweis and Ron Villone.

As spring training nears, some players on that list may be willing to sign at relatively cheap rates.


Let's break that article down. The Reds were willing to spend "close" to the $8M over 2 years Aurilia got. That means they are willing to spend $4M for this year, and next. Well, we just gave Conine $2M for this year. So, we have $2M more to spend this year and $4M for next year (2008).

Tomo Ohka we've all agreed would be a good signing for this team, but my guess is that whoever loses out on the Jeff Suppan sweepstakes (either the Pirates or Brewers, most likely) will overpay for Ohka and get him. Ohka had shoulder problems last year, so coming into camp he's not even going to be 100%. I doubt the Reds would be able to sign Ohka for $2M this year and an option for $4M in 2008. There are other teams that will spend more. Ohka made $4.53M on a one-year deal last year. Armas, is a free agent, and is also injury prone. He had a 5.03 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP last year. Could he improve? Sure, he could, but I wouldn't say he's a good bet to make 30 starts next year. I believe Armas made $2.1M last year, so he could conceivably fall into the Reds salary parameters.

The rest of the guys on this list, are A) cheap B) veterans, and C) bullpen guys. Are you guys starting to see what I'm talking about here?

IMO, there is no "big move" coming.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 09:58 AM
And what I'm saying is that the casual fan won't even know this transaction has occurred.So only "intelligent baseball fans" follow baseball in the winter? Have you seen the types of calls made to the Hot Stove League show? Of course, when I read "intelligent baseball fans," all I see is the high post RedsZoner who thinks having pierced the veil of front office press jargon makes them "intelligent baseball fans."

Johnny Footstool
12-22-2006, 10:11 AM
Getting Conine at a $2 million salary may open the way for the Reds to pursue more pitching.

Keep dangling that bait.

Notice how it says "pursue", not actually "acquire."

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 10:19 AM
Keep dangling that bait.

Notice how it says "pursue", not actually "acquire."

It also says "may".

M2
12-22-2006, 10:24 AM
Well, if the team actually acquired more interesting players who could significantly change the club's fortunes then it would have nothing left to pursue. What would the fun in that be?

As the old saying goes, you gotta reach for that brass ring, not wear it.

westofyou
12-22-2006, 10:25 AM
Going to Philadelphia are infielder Brad Key and outfielder Javon Moran. Key spent last season with Class A Dayton and Sarasota, while Moran spent time in Sarasota and at Double-A Chattanooga.

So which is it?

The above or the below?


for two minor leaguers. They are infielder Brendan Harris and outfielder Javon Moran, a Phillies fifth-round pick in 2003 who went to Cincinnati in the Cory Lidle trade in 2004.

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/baseball/16296595.htm

marcshoe
12-22-2006, 10:31 AM
Well, now it's time to go after the fifth starter. There are quite a few pitchers out there who have had success in the big leagues and who would fit perfectly in the Reds plans. Denny Neagle, Ramon Martinez, Charles Nagy, Steve Avery....

Redsland
12-22-2006, 11:37 AM
Here's what Bob Castellini said yesterday (http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061221/SPT04/612210341/1071) about paying for the kind of impact pitcher this team needs to get over the hump:
"The money that's been thrown around is unbelievable, and in some cases irresponsible."

Here's what Wayne has added to the '08 roster since the deadline:

Rheal Cormier - Extended at $2.25 million
Kyle Loshe - Will tender at about $6 million
Juan Castro - Extended at $.925 million
Scott Hatteberg - Extended at $1.5 million
Javier Valentin - Extended at $1.25 million
Bubba Crosby - Signed for $.400 million
Chad Moeller - Signed for $.750 million (also, pay $3 million for LaRue to go away)
Alex Gonzalez - Signed for $3.5 million
Josh Hamilton - Will sign for about $.400 million
Jared Burton - Will sign for about $.400 million
David Weathers - Signed for $2.5 million
Mike Stanton - Signed for $2 million
Jeff Conine - Signed for $2 million
-------------------------------------

That's a long list of replacement-level dreck. That dreck will earn $23.875 million next year. Plus the $3 million that it cost to turn LaRue into Moeller.

$24 million that could have been spent on two $10 million pitchers with $4 million left for scrappy vets and AAAA players to fill the holes above.

$24 million that could have gone to the one impact pitcher of your choice, with millions to spare for, again, vets and AAAA players who would contribute as much to the team next year as those listed above.

This team could have added real talent. It could have pushed itself over the hump. Instead it convinced itself it couldn't afford an impact player, and then spent more than it would have by spreading the cash out over a dozen ill-conceived signings that won't help it compete.

When you say we can't afford Zito, you're right. And it's because the money it would have taken to out-bid his other suitors is tied up in Castro, Cormier, et.al.

M2
12-22-2006, 11:49 AM
Here's what Bob Castellini said yesterday (http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061221/SPT04/612210341/1071) about paying for the kind of impact pitcher this team needs to get over the hump:
"The money that's been thrown around is unbelievable, and in some cases irresponsible."

Here's what Wayne has added to the '08 roster since the deadline:

Rheal Cormier - Extended at $2.25 million
Kyle Loshe - Will tender at about $6 million
Juan Castro - Extended at $.925 million
Scott Hatteberg - Extended at $1.5 million
Javier Valentin - Extended at $1.25 million
Bubba Crosby - Signed for $.400 million
Chad Moeller - Signed for $.750 million (also, pay $3 million for LaRue to go away)
Alex Gonzalez - Signed for $3.5 million
Josh Hamilton - Will sign for about $.400 million
Jared Burton - Will sign for about $.400 million
David Weathers - Signed for $2.5 million
Mike Stanton - Signed for $2 million
Jeff Conine - Signed for $2 million
-------------------------------------

That's a long list of replacement-level dreck. That dreck will earn $23.875 million next year. Plus the $3 million that it cost to turn LaRue into Moeller.

$24 million that could have been spent on two $10 million pitchers with $4 million left for scrappy vets and AAAA players to fill the holes above.

$24 million that could have gone to the one impact pitcher of your choice, with millions to spare for, again, vets and AAAA players who would contribute as much to the team next year as those listed above.

This team could have added real talent. It could have pushed itself over the hump. Instead it convinced itself it couldn't afford an impact player, and then spent more than it would have by spreading the cash out over a dozen ill-conceived signings that won't help it compete.

When you say we can't afford Zito, you're right. And it's because the money it would have taken to out-bid his other suitors is tied up in Castro, Cormier, et.al.

Math (sneer). Well, it feels like the Reds can't compete for better players.

Marc D
12-22-2006, 12:05 PM
Saw the Conine news online at work 15-20 minutes ago. Just stopped laughing(to keep from crying) long enough to come and see the RZ reaction.

I don't even know what to say anymore. The scary part for me personally is apathy is begining to take the place of anger.

Cyclone792
12-22-2006, 12:06 PM
Here's what Bob Castellini said yesterday (http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061221/SPT04/612210341/1071) about paying for the kind of impact pitcher this team needs to get over the hump:
"The money that's been thrown around is unbelievable, and in some cases irresponsible."

Here's what Wayne has added to the '08 roster since the deadline:

Rheal Cormier - Extended at $2.25 million
Kyle Loshe - Will tender at about $6 million
Juan Castro - Extended at $.925 million
Scott Hatteberg - Extended at $1.5 million
Javier Valentin - Extended at $1.25 million
Bubba Crosby - Signed for $.400 million
Chad Moeller - Signed for $.750 million (also, pay $3 million for LaRue to go away)
Alex Gonzalez - Signed for $3.5 million
Josh Hamilton - Will sign for about $.400 million
Jared Burton - Will sign for about $.400 million
David Weathers - Signed for $2.5 million
Mike Stanton - Signed for $2 million
Jeff Conine - Signed for $2 million
-------------------------------------

That's a long list of replacement-level dreck. That dreck will earn $23.875 million next year. Plus the $3 million that it cost to turn LaRue into Moeller.

$24 million that could have been spent on two $10 million pitchers with $4 million left for scrappy vets and AAAA players to fill the holes above.

$24 million that could have gone to the one impact pitcher of your choice, with millions to spare for, again, vets and AAAA players who would contribute as much to the team next year as those listed above.

This team could have added real talent. It could have pushed itself over the hump. Instead it convinced itself it couldn't afford an impact player, and then spent more than it would have by spreading the cash out over a dozen ill-conceived signings that won't help it compete.

When you say we can't afford Zito, you're right. And it's because the money it would have taken to out-bid his other suitors is tied up in Castro, Cormier, et.al.

Yikes, $24 million on all the above. That's sickening, isn't it? The run value of all those players above won't push this team over the hump. It won't even come close.

People wonder why bad teams stay bad, and this is one common example. Bad teams have a habit of wasting money on players that money shouldn't be wasted on. This doesn't even count the mistakes of the previous regime that we're still paying for (read: Milton).

dsmith421
12-22-2006, 12:08 PM
Yea, that's basically my point, he doesn't care that "intelligent baseball fans" are insulted by these comments (I'm not, so I must not be an intelligent baseball fan). Inane comments like these will satisfy the passer by who is not deeply thinking about the Reds now or in the near future.

Fine. It insults me, and makes me less likely to spend dollar one of my money on the ballclub this year.

That's a drop in the bucket of their bottom line, I'm sure. But when the club is repulsing hardcore, longtime fans like me I'm not sure that's a good sign.

deltachi8
12-22-2006, 12:12 PM
Yikes, $24 million on all the above.

And the Marlin's payroll last year was....

The issue isn't really Jeff Conine at $2M, it's the cumulative effect of assembling a cast of dreck for $24M.

westofyou
12-22-2006, 12:15 PM
But when the club is repulsing hardcore, longtime fans like me I'm not sure that's a good sign.

If they're still around after the last 6 seasons, why would they leave now?

The Reds market to hard core fans like the tobacco companies market to smokers. They just make the product available and watch the product go.

pedro
12-22-2006, 12:16 PM
I think the Reds have a really good chance to win the American Association next year.

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 12:19 PM
And the Marlin's payroll last year was....

The issue isn't really Jeff Conine at $2M, it's the cumulative effect of assembling a cast of dreck for $24M.

Exactly. Right on the money. I was ok with the first couple of these signings, although not thrilled. When it continued, I kept getting more fired up. It's not that aquiring Jeff Conine is terrible. It's not that what we gave up will hurt us. It's that this signing, coupled with all of the other stupid moves, will hurt us.

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 12:20 PM
The Reds market to hard core fans like the tobacco companies market to smokers. They just make the product available and watch the product go.


This statement is so true, I may add it to my sig if you don't mind.

M2
12-22-2006, 12:24 PM
If they're still around after the last 6 seasons, why would they leave now?

Hopelessness, apathy, disgust to name three.

marcshoe
12-22-2006, 12:24 PM
I think the Reds have a really good chance to win the American Association next year.


You're looking the wrong direction. They're preparing for the resurrection of the Senior League.

Cyclone792
12-22-2006, 12:24 PM
And the Marlin's payroll last year was....

The issue isn't really Jeff Conine at $2M, it's the cumulative effect of assembling a cast of dreck for $24M.

Precisely.

That cumulative effect brings back some painful memories too ...


Player 2005 Salary 2005 VORP

Graves $6.25 million -6.8
Ortiz $3.55 million -3.3
Milton $5.33 million -25.0
Wilson $3.60 million -12.2

Total $18.73 million -47.3


It's a constant cycle or ugly pattern, really. The team wastes money on garbage players it shouldn't waste money on, and then it says it doesn't have the funds available to compete for impact players that actually provide meaingful run value, or the type of run value that pushes the team over the top. The end result is a bad team staying bad or reaching mediocrity, at best. Of course, if that team didn't waste the money on garbage players, suddenly a nice chunk of coin is available to use on impact players.

The regime has changed, but the cycle clearly hasn't.

reds44
12-22-2006, 12:29 PM
Here's what Bob Castellini said yesterday (http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061221/SPT04/612210341/1071) about paying for the kind of impact pitcher this team needs to get over the hump:
"The money that's been thrown around is unbelievable, and in some cases irresponsible."

Here's what Wayne has added to the '08 roster since the deadline:

Rheal Cormier - Extended at $2.25 million
Kyle Loshe - Will tender at about $6 million
Juan Castro - Extended at $.925 million
Scott Hatteberg - Extended at $1.5 million
Javier Valentin - Extended at $1.25 million
Bubba Crosby - Signed for $.400 million
Chad Moeller - Signed for $.750 million (also, pay $3 million for LaRue to go away)
Alex Gonzalez - Signed for $3.5 million
Josh Hamilton - Will sign for about $.400 million
Jared Burton - Will sign for about $.400 million
David Weathers - Signed for $2.5 million
Mike Stanton - Signed for $2 million
Jeff Conine - Signed for $2 million
-------------------------------------

That's a long list of replacement-level dreck. That dreck will earn $23.875 million next year. Plus the $3 million that it cost to turn LaRue into Moeller.

$24 million that could have been spent on two $10 million pitchers with $4 million left for scrappy vets and AAAA players to fill the holes above.

$24 million that could have gone to the one impact pitcher of your choice, with millions to spare for, again, vets and AAAA players who would contribute as much to the team next year as those listed above.

This team could have added real talent. It could have pushed itself over the hump. Instead it convinced itself it couldn't afford an impact player, and then spent more than it would have by spreading the cash out over a dozen ill-conceived signings that won't help it compete.

When you say we can't afford Zito, you're right. And it's because the money it would have taken to out-bid his other suitors is tied up in Castro, Cormier, et.al.

The scary thing is that list doesn't include Milton or Griffey.

GAC
12-22-2006, 12:31 PM
So you guys are complimenting Wayne Krisky for being "creative?" I'd say you're confusing "creative" with "cheap." We need a big horse in the rotation to stick with Harang and Arroyo and to a lesser extent, another arm to put in the rotation. Those are the most important moves this team can make, IMO. Why? Pretty simple...to get Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse out of the rotation and give us a chance to win more than 1/4 of those games that would be started by those 2.

Who is arguing that point?

So where is that "big horse" available at that this FO missed or should have signed? Got any ideas? I'm interested to hear who we let "slip through our fingers". ;)



As for improving the bullpen (which you complimented him for being creative by doing), what does that help? Our offense has been depleted (thanks for the trade of Kearns / Lopez for some failed bullpen arms). We will no longer score as many runs as we did last year. The defense has been somewhat improved, but it still doesn't offset the loss we've had on offense. Because the bullpen arms he acquired in the previous trade didn't pan out and starters are too expensive for him

Those are some young arms. I wouldn't conclude just yet that they are not going to pan out.

You, and others, are putting our offensive "slump" in the second half solely on the loss of Lopez and Kearns, when in reality several key players, such as Dunn, Freel, EE, and Hatteberg went into personal slumps on their own in those last two months. And we lost Jr to injury too.


he decides to address that area again this offseason. Problems is, we're running out of chips, so he has to go the cheap route. But what good is bringing in bullpen help at this point? Our starters (other than the first 2) are going to give up about 5-6 runs in the first 5 innings.

Which is why you then try to acquire arms for middle relief, when you can't get that big horse. The obvious is that you then try to bolster your bullpen.


Our hitters won't be able to score 5-6 runs in those 5 innings anymore, there aren't enough of them that can get on base, or drive them in. So how much is this bullpen makeover going to help? Even if we had Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner and B.J. Ryan to pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th (which, incidentally, we still have no one close to any of them), we're still likely to lose those games.

I personally think you are over exaggerating our offensive lack. We weren't, nor will we be, the Astro's offense of '06.

Just like you're mis-interpreting our use of the word "creative". We never said that Krivsky has been creative in every single decision. Just that he has shown signs of doing so in some of his acquisitions and attempts to find players.

reds44
12-22-2006, 12:32 PM
GAC is dead on. Our offense won't be great next year, but it won't be terrible.

Chip R
12-22-2006, 12:43 PM
This offseason doesn't look any different than the offseason from the past 10 years. Giving mid-sized contracts to mediocrities while they wring their hands and saying they can't afford anyone really good. Sure, it looks like they are filling in until they can get kids from the farm system ready but we've been hearing that for 10 years. Not to sound like I'm picking on Aurilia - which I'm not because he had 2 really good offensive years here - but he was signed and people said that he'd be FeLo's backup and not to worry. Of course he "won" the starting job and only lost it cause he got hurt. But they re-signed him for 2006 because they didn't have anyone better to take his place and thought strongly about re-signing him again for 2007. So, for all you out there who say, "It's only for one year" it might not be only one year. It might be 2 or 3 or 4 years. And it's going to continue until the farm system is stocked, which may never happen. But even if it does, there's no guarantee these kids actually play for the Reds. Not with scrappy-vet-man-love Jerry Narron managing this team.

Heath
12-22-2006, 12:50 PM
I think there is so much uproar over all the "dreck" is because when it comes to the Reds, they aren't players in the FA market. Couple that with the hard core Red Fan who is straining for anything of substance feels like the guy in the desert looking at a mirage of an oasis.

Welcome to baseball 2006.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 12:59 PM
And the Marlin's payroll last year was....

The issue isn't really Jeff Conine at $2M, it's the cumulative effect of assembling a cast of dreck for $24M.The Marlins are obviously a freak of nature with their "model." I think there are some things a mid-level payroll team like the Reds can learn from how the Marlins do business, but I don't think that provide a very strong point of comparison.

Spring~Fields
12-22-2006, 01:00 PM
This offseason doesn't look any different than the offseason from the past 10 years. Giving mid-sized contracts to mediocrities while they wring their hands and saying they can't afford anyone really good. Sure, it looks like they are filling in until they can get kids from the farm system ready but we've been hearing that for 10 years. Not to sound like I'm picking on Aurilia - which I'm not because he had 2 really good offensive years here - but he was signed and people said that he'd be FeLo's backup and not to worry. Of course he "won" the starting job and only lost it cause he got hurt. But they re-signed him for 2006 because they didn't have anyone better to take his place and thought strongly about re-signing him again for 2007. So, for all you out there who say, "It's only for one year" it might not be only one year. It might be 2 or 3 or 4 years. And it's going to continue until the farm system is stocked, which may never happen. But even if it does, there's no guarantee these kids actually play for the Reds. Not with scrappy-vet-man-love Jerry Narron managing this team.

I am afraid that you are more right than we dare to let ourselves see.

Spring~Fields
12-22-2006, 01:04 PM
You're looking the wrong direction. They're preparing for the resurrection of the Senior League.

:laugh: :laugh: please refrain from doing that when I am drinking coffee. :cry:

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 01:06 PM
I personally think you are over exaggerating our offensive lack. We weren't, nor will we be, the Astro's offense of '06.



Let's see here. The Reds scored 749 runs last year. That figure placed them 22nd in MLB (the Astros scored 735 runs and ranked 25th). The runs they scored last year were including 1/2 seasons of Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and a full season of Rich Aurilia. The Reds have replaced those three with Jeff Conine, Alex Gonzalez, and a Freel/Denorfia combination most likely. We also got career years from Scott Hatteberg and David Ross and Ken Griffey, Jr continued his steady decline at the plate. Do you still think we'll score more than 735 runs next year? That's only a 14 run drop-off from last year if my math is correct. That's right, the difference between the Reds offense last year and the Astros offense last year was 14 runs over a 162 game schedule.

westofyou
12-22-2006, 01:11 PM
That figure placed them 22nd in MLB

Cross comparing leagues leads to a faulty look at the teams offense, peer evaluation probably works best.

gonelong
12-22-2006, 01:15 PM
If they're still around after the last 6 seasons, why would they leave now?

The Reds market to hard core fans like the tobacco companies market to smokers. They just make the product available and watch the product go.

The tabacco companies market to kids a whole lot more effectively than the Reds do. They give you a cowboy, a cartoon camel, and leggy blondes. The Reds give you Gapper and either has-beens or never was-ers.

The last 6 seasons has worn me down quite a bit. I went from a partial season ticket package to attending only a single game last year (free tickets and a ride to the park). Heck, I don't even frequent this place as much as I used to.

When I was 12 the Reds were pretty much it. Now that I am in my 30's there is a major D1 Football team, 2 D1 Basketball teams, minor league baseball, and the NFL for them to compete with. They aren't doing so well in that regard.

GL

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 01:16 PM
Cross comparing leagues leads to a faulty look at the teams offense, peer evaluation probably works best.

Ok. Gotcha. Thanks, woy.

That 749 runs scored placed the Reds 9th out of 16 NL ballclubs in 2006. The Astros, at 735 runs scored, finished 12th out of 16. Philadelphia led the NL with 865 runs scored. Pittsburgh pulled up the bottom at 691 runs scored.

Heath
12-22-2006, 01:24 PM
I think the Reds have a really good chance to win the American Association next year.

I don't know. I fear Iowa.

Chip R
12-22-2006, 01:39 PM
I don't know. I fear Iowa.


I saw them play last year and they are scrappy.

Cyclone792
12-22-2006, 01:40 PM
I think there is so much uproar over all the "dreck" is because when it comes to the Reds, they aren't players in the FA market. Couple that with the hard core Red Fan who is straining for anything of substance feels like the guy in the desert looking at a mirage of an oasis.

Welcome to baseball 2006.

Being a player in the free agent market isn't a pre-req for building a legitimate contending team. It can certainly be an aid, and if you've got the dollars available to throw at marquee players, yes that helps. But it can also be a massive liability. Throw the dollars around at a wrong player, and it can be a problem, even for a high payroll team.

I hate using the Oakland Athletics as an example, because most people see the A's as a type of freak show and fail to understand the underlying point. But I'm going to use the A's as an example anyway and hope I make some sense doing so.

Since 1999, the A's have had a cumulative winning percentage of .577, which comes out to an average of 93-94 wins per season. During those eight seasons, the A's have made the playoffs five times. Everyone knows their playoff history, and people love to miss the point and laugh at their playoff history. However, give any Reds fan the option of this team posting a .577 cumulative winning percentage over the next eight seasons and reaching the playoffs in five of those seasons, and I bet they'll take it and run. They'd be insane not too.

The A's are not major players in the free agent market. In fact, if anything, the A's may be responsible for providing the free agent market with more marquee players than any other team in MLB over the last half dozen seasons. But they still win; eight seasons of their cycle, and they continue to win. Billy Beane is a master at three vital components of being a general manager:

More often than not, he knows how to identify the right talent for his team.
More often than not, he knows how to acquire that right talent at a reasonable cost for his team, be it on the free agent market, a trade, etc.
More often than not, he knows when to unload specific players before they lapse into the zone of no longer being the right talent for his team, and he's able to net a reasonable return for those players he unloads.

All of the above supercedes high payroll, and the A's have proven that a reality. The problem is people just love to throw their hands in the air and proclaim Billy Beane as a freak. People will claim that the Reds can't get a Billy Beane so we have to make do with what they do have.

I'm calling shenanigans on that.

There's 30 teams in MLB; only eight reach the playoffs each season. Of the eight teams reaching the playoffs, a certain segment of them will be high payroll teams that do a fairly decent job at those three points above. They're the Yankees, or the Red Sox, or sometimes the Mets, and maybe the Angels (mostly the Yankees and Red Sox, though). There are other teams in MLB who are also high payroll teams, but do an awful job at those three points above. Still, they're high payroll teams, and one luxury of high payroll teams is it's much easier to start winning quick when you start making better decisions.

Everyone can do the math and figure this out: there are a very limited number of spots remaining in the playoffs for low payroll teams. Of course it's possible for lower payroll teams to reach the playoffs, it happens all the time, and the A's, among others, have proved that.

But what do those lower payroll teams who can reach the playoffs always seem to have in common? They're all freak shows. They've got their own Billy Beane version shaping his craft and not giving a hoot about how much money he can or can't spend. They break away from the pack of mediocrity seekers by making good, sound baseball decisions a frequent reality. Bad decisions become a thing of the past and occur far less frequently.

If any Reds fan wants to sit around in sorrow because this team shapes up to be a low payroll squad that doesn't qualify as a freak show, then they better prepare themselves for mediocrity because it's almost guaranteed that's what they'll get.

If this team is going to be a lower payroll team, and by all signs that's what Bob appears to be seeking, then it better have a freak running their show if they expect to be legitimate contenders during anything more than a random, fluke occasion for one season.

M2
12-22-2006, 01:47 PM
Great post Cyclone, bring on the freaks.

Ltlabner
12-22-2006, 02:30 PM
I think that's it right there. He knows that a lot of fans out there are sick of guys like Dunn and Kearns and Lopez and Encarnacion who strike out a lot and/or are bad defensive players. Fans loved a guy like Aurilia who made a lot of contact and produced - as well they should have. So he's a little up there in years. So he's lost a few steps in the field. As long as he doesn't strike out a lot and makes the routine play, he Plays The Game The Right Way and he also Knows How To Win. It's really a charade, though. Wayne's loading up on vets to show fans that he's serious about winning now while trying to build the farm system. This might turn out well. After all, most of us panned the Aurilia signing and after a slow beginning he turned out pretty good and got us a couple of draft picks to boot. But I don't see it with Conine.

Chip, this is a facinating post. It's been bouncing around my noggin all morning.

What is the possibility that Wayne thinks the older "plays the game the right way" type guys are an actual draw to the local casual fans? The casual fans in Cincinnati love them some scrappy players so maybe Wayne is making an effort to build a team that can be somewhat competitive in the short term based on "scrappy factor" in an attempt to draw in more fans. More fans = more revenue = more payroll. He may not be able to feild a winning team now, but he can field a scrappy team.

Instead of spending wild sums on FA's maybe BCasts plan is to bump up the payroll (as he has referenced on many occasions) by locking in BA and AH to fat LTC's now since they are known quantities. Thus they will be around when the Baileys, Vottos, and Bruces start to come online. Mix in EE's and Philips with some as yet to be acquired guys and you have a real solid baseball team.

In the mean time, while they are admittidley treading water in the short term they are playing to the home audience by giving them what they want, Scraptastic Baseball. Also, he's giving out a lot of 2 year deal so we still have controll over some medoicre guys (but low cost medocre guys) if the youngsters aren't quite ready in 2008. If the youngsters break in sooner then he has some trading chips.

I don't honestly think this is their gameplan, just some random museings. I think Chip raises a facinating point: do GM's try to get players that fit what the home crowd expects of it's players?

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 02:35 PM
I think Chip raises a facinating point: do GM's try to get players that fit what the home crowd expects of it's players?

My guess is that the good ones don't. They should use their expertise, their experience, whatever, to acquire the most talented players they can to improve the ballclub, regardless if those players are the types of players the home town crowd likes or dislikes.

Redsland
12-22-2006, 02:37 PM
I think he's trying to tread water with known quantities while waiting for the minor leagues to offer up MLB-ready replacements.

In other words, he's patiently waiting to win the lottery.

Heath
12-22-2006, 02:47 PM
Being a player in the free agent market isn't a pre-req for building a legitimate contending team. It can certainly be an aid, and if you've got the dollars available to throw at marquee players, yes that helps. But it can also be a massive liability. Throw the dollars around at a wrong player, and it can be a problem, even for a high payroll team.

I hate using the Oakland Athletics as an example, because most people see the A's as a type of freak show and fail to understand the underlying point. But I'm going to use the A's as an example anyway and hope I make some sense doing so.

Since 1999, the A's have had a cumulative winning percentage of .577, which comes out to an average of 93-94 wins per season. During those eight seasons, the A's have made the playoffs five times. Everyone knows their playoff history, and people love to miss the point and laugh at their playoff history. However, give any Reds fan the option of this team posting a .577 cumulative winning percentage over the next eight seasons and reaching the playoffs in five of those seasons, and I bet they'll take it and run. They'd be insane not too.

The A's are not major players in the free agent market. In fact, if anything, the A's may be responsible for providing the free agent market with more marquee players than any other team in MLB over the last half dozen seasons. But they still win; eight seasons of their cycle, and they continue to win. Billy Beane is a master at three vital components of being a general manager:

More often than not, he knows how to identify the right talent for his team.
More often than not, he knows how to acquire that right talent at a reasonable cost for his team, be it on the free agent market, a trade, etc.
More often than not, he knows when to unload specific players before they lapse into the zone of no longer being the right talent for his team, and he's able to net a reasonable return for those players he unloads.

All of the above supercedes high payroll, and the A's have proven that a reality. The problem is people just love to throw their hands in the air and proclaim Billy Beane as a freak. People will claim that the Reds can't get a Billy Beane so we have to make do with what they do have.

I'm calling shenanigans on that.

There's 30 teams in MLB; only eight reach the playoffs each season. Of the eight teams reaching the playoffs, a certain segment of them will be high payroll teams that do a fairly decent job at those three points above. They're the Yankees, or the Red Sox, or sometimes the Mets, and maybe the Angels (mostly the Yankees and Red Sox, though). There are other teams in MLB who are also high payroll teams, but do an awful job at those three points above. Still, they're high payroll teams, and one luxury of high payroll teams is it's much easier to start winning quick when you start making better decisions.

Everyone can do the math and figure this out: there are a very limited number of spots remaining in the playoffs for low payroll teams. Of course it's possible for lower payroll teams to reach the playoffs, it happens all the time, and the A's, among others, have proved that.

But what do those lower payroll teams who can reach the playoffs always seem to have in common? They're all freak shows. They've got their own Billy Beane version shaping his craft and not giving a hoot about how much money he can or can't spend. They break away from the pack of mediocrity seekers by making good, sound baseball decisions a frequent reality. Bad decisions become a thing of the past and occur far less frequently.

If any Reds fan wants to sit around in sorrow because this team shapes up to be a low payroll squad that doesn't qualify as a freak show, then they better prepare themselves for mediocrity because it's almost guaranteed that's what they'll get.

If this team is going to be a lower payroll team, and by all signs that's what Bob appears to be seeking, then it better have a freak running their show if they expect to be legitimate contenders during anything more than a random, fluke occasion for one season.

Cyclone, fantastic points all around, as per usual of your posts.

I just think that the casual fans expect (and it was discussed here on a daily basis) that Free Agency was the jagged little pill that could spur an 80-82 team in a crappy division to the pennant.

But, in reality, the Reds aren't in a position to compete currently because of two items.

1 - Bad Contracts (as you alluded to above) to Griffey & Milton
2 - 15 years or so of poor farm system development

What is going to change the above? I'm afraid the answer is time. Another answer is direction.

Could a Paul DePodesta do some positive damage in Cincinnati? I think he could. However, I'm not pushing Wayne Krivsky off the machine at all, in fact I think he's got the ability to do some of the same things that Beane could do. I think that Almarez and Barton were victims of change, not because their job performance was less than stellar.

I'm also glad that the short-term wasn't a player in the FA. The contracts that were tossed are going to be albatrosses in the next couple of years. I'm not convinced that the Cubs will finish .500 with all that they acquired. Gary Matthews Jr.? Yeesh.

I'm interested to see how the rest of the off season plays out even into spring training for WayneK and the Reds.

deltachi8
12-22-2006, 02:51 PM
I believe in freaks.

GREAT post (as always) Cyclone.

Heath
12-22-2006, 02:53 PM
I think he's trying to tread water with known quantities while waiting for the minor leagues to offer up MLB-ready replacements.

In other words, he's patiently waiting to win the lottery.

1998-2004 Minnesota Twins.

The glaring thing that comes out to me on those 5 years is how Pythag W/L lucky they were when they started to win.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 03:12 PM
The problem is people just love to throw their hands in the air and proclaim Billy Beane as a freak. People will claim that the Reds can't get a Billy Beane so we have to make do with what they do have.

I'm calling shenanigans on that.

I can think of one small payroll "freak show" besides the A's, and that's the Marlins. How does that prove your "shenanigans?" And the A's payroll is not that far off from the Reds. Billy Beane is a freak and he does not produce a workable, transportable "model," he has a special gift that resides within himself. Same thing with the Marlins. And, if its bring on the freaks, then they wouldn't be freaks anymore, they would be the norm.

Chip R
12-22-2006, 03:27 PM
Cyclone, fantastic points all around, as per usual of your posts.

I just think that the casual fans expect (and it was discussed here on a daily basis) that Free Agency was the jagged little pill that could spur an 80-82 team in a crappy division to the pennant.

But, in reality, the Reds aren't in a position to compete currently because of two items.

1 - Bad Contracts (as you alluded to above) to Griffey & Milton
2 - 15 years or so of poor farm system development

What is going to change the above? I'm afraid the answer is time. Another answer is direction.

Could a Paul DePodesta do some positive damage in Cincinnati? I think he could. However, I'm not pushing Wayne Krivsky off the machine at all, in fact I think he's got the ability to do some of the same things that Beane could do. I think that Almarez and Barton were victims of change, not because their job performance was less than stellar.

I'm also glad that the short-term wasn't a player in the FA. The contracts that were tossed are going to be albatrosses in the next couple of years. I'm not convinced that the Cubs will finish .500 with all that they acquired. Gary Matthews Jr.? Yeesh.

I'm interested to see how the rest of the off season plays out even into spring training for WayneK and the Reds.


I'm just afraid that it's going to be like this year after year after year. I'm ecstatic they didn't go after such dreck as Jason Marquis or the Private. But they keep signing guys like Gonzo to a $5M deals, Conine to a $2M deal, Weathers to a $2.5M deal and going to arbitration with Lohse who is going to command at least $5M a year. That's about $15M right there which is enough to get an elite free agent. Plus Milton's salary is off the books after this year so there's another $9M. But they keep signing old mediocrities to these deals and they take up valuable payroll space and roster spaces. I'm not sure we have over 5 minor leaguers in the system now that project into being big league regulars. What have we got to show in all the salary dumps that have taken place over the past several years? Look at the Randa trade. Both Chick and Germano are gone and for what? I don't know if either guy was a potential big leaguer but both are gone now. Who is left from the Aaron Boone deal? I don't count the Guillen deal as a dump cause he wasn't making much and he wanted to play every day and the Reds couldn't guarantee that to him. We traded Corey Lidle and all we have to show for him is Anderson Machado. Now I realize most of this was in the past but Wayne has shown a propensity to deal away the future for a shot at winning in the present. But the guys he has traded for have turned out to be injured or ineffective. That's no better than what JimBo ever did.

I know the Cardinals aren't popular on here but when they needed a pitcher, they went out and got Jeff Weaver and gambled Duncan could fix him which he did. They also needed a 2nd baseman and got Belliard. Isringhausen went down and they moved Wainwright into the closer's spot. They have people over there that can fix guys who are broken and minor leaguers who can fetch more than a Joe Mays and can step into an important role in the lineup, rotation or bullpen. That's how you run a major league team, not by trading minor leaguers for Jeff Conine or signing 30-something relief pitchers to multi-year deals. I'm not on the Fire Wayne bandwagon cause if he were fired today, a new search would have to take place and a new guy would come in with a different philosophy and there's another year or 2 down the drain.

I'm frustrated more than angry. I don't expect a winner every year and I'm more patient than most. Even if signing scrappy vets like Conine is throwing a bone to the fans, they still won't come out unless the team wins. Instead of signing guys like Conine, we should be giving a youngster a chance to play that role but we don't have one. And it's probably a little early to tell if Wayne's draft and minor league deals bear fruit but I'm starting to get impatient. And if I'm impatient, I can only imagine how others feel.

Edd Roush
12-22-2006, 03:27 PM
Instead of spending wild sums on FA's maybe BCasts plan is to bump up the payroll (as he has referenced on many occasions) by locking in BA and AH to fat LTC's now since they are known quantities. Thus they will be around when the Baileys, Vottos, and Bruces start to come online. Mix in EE's and Philips with some as yet to be acquired guys and you have a real solid baseball team.

If this is the Reds' master plan, I am all behind it.

Cyclone792
12-22-2006, 03:33 PM
I can think of one small payroll "freak show" besides the A's, and that's the Marlins. How does that prove your "shenanigans?" And the A's payroll is not that far off from the Reds. Billy Beane is a freak and he does not produce a workable, transportable "model," he has a special gift that resides within himself. Same thing with the Marlins. And, if its bring on the freaks, then they wouldn't be freaks anymore, they would be the norm.

You're missing the point. That or you're just accepting mediocrity.

Schuerholz qualifies as a freak. As does Jocketty. Terry Ryan's probably up there too, and an argument could be made for Dave Dombrowski. None of those guys ever had the luxury of working with monster payrolls. Payrolls somewhat higher than the Reds? Sure, some of them, but they weren't considerably higher, not like certain other teams.

People can look at that list of GMs and summarize that, "oh, those guys are probably the best GMs in all of baseball."

And that is the point. Look, if the Cincinnati Reds are going to win the NL Central, they have to beat out five other specific teams. If they're going to win the NL Wildcard, they have to beat out 12 other specific teams. That's on Wayne Krivsky and his ability to be one of the best GMs in the game and field a legitimate contending team. Not being one of those guys simply isn't acceptable because he doesn't have the payroll luxury to swallow his mistakes. If he's not one of the best and doesn't have the payroll luxury to swallow his mistakes, then he'll just field one of the many teams that get kicked around year in and year out.

If Wayne Krivsky's going to transform the Reds into the A's, or the Braves, or the Cardinals, then he's going to have to be one of the best GMs in the game. He's going to have to be a freak.

Red Leader
12-22-2006, 03:38 PM
If Wayne Krivsky's going to transform the Reds into the A's, or the Braves, or the Cardinals, then he's going to have to be one of the best GMs in the game. He's going to have to be a freak.

Right on, Cyclone.

http://www.nndb.com/people/167/000025092/rick-james-crop.jpg

westofyou
12-22-2006, 04:01 PM
If Wayne Krivsky's going to transform the Reds into the A's, or the Braves, or the Cardinals, then he's going to have to be one of the best GMs in the game. He's going to have to be a freak.
Billy Beane had the pleasure of following an act that had a plan that had been in motion for over a decade. He's a freak like a trustfunder can be a freak. He had some help along the way.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 04:08 PM
You're missing the point. That or you're just accepting mediocrity.

Schuerholz qualifies as a freak. As does Jocketty. Terry Ryan's probably up there too, and an argument could be made for Dave Dombrowski. None of those guys ever had the luxury of working with monster payrolls. Payrolls somewhat higher than the Reds? Sure, some of them, but they weren't considerably higher, not like certain other teams.

People can look at that list of GMs and summarize that, "oh, those guys are probably the best GMs in all of baseball."

And that is the point. Look, if the Cincinnati Reds are going to win the NL Central, they have to beat out five other specific teams. If they're going to win the NL Wildcard, they have to beat out 12 other specific teams. That's on Wayne Krivsky and his ability to be one of the best GMs in the game and field a legitimate contending team. Not being one of those guys simply isn't acceptable because he doesn't have the payroll luxury to swallow his mistakes. If he's not one of the best and doesn't have the payroll luxury to swallow his mistakes, then he'll just field one of the many teams that get kicked around year in and year out.

If Wayne Krivsky's going to transform the Reds into the A's, or the Braves, or the Cardinals, then he's going to have to be one of the best GMs in the game. He's going to have to be a freak.

So, the only two alternatives available are is I'm missing your point or I'm accepting mediocrity? Well, I guess it's settled then, you have spoken.

I will admit the Twins probably qualify as a low budget success story, but Scheurholz and Jocketty are large budget winners. I know using the word "freak" makes one sound like they have come up with a novel idea, but based on what you just said above, all you are saying is that a freak is a GM who can build a winner, and it is even more freaky deaky if he has a small budget. Ok, but that seems like a lot of words to state the obvious.

Spring~Fields
12-22-2006, 04:09 PM
I'm just afraid that it's going to be like this year after year after year. I'm ecstatic they didn't go after such dreck as Jason Marquis or the Private. But they keep signing guys like Gonzo to a $5M deals, Conine to a $2M deal, Weathers to a $2.5M deal and going to arbitration with Lohse who is going to command at least $5M a year. That's about $15M right there which is enough to get an elite free agent. Plus Milton's salary is off the books after this year so there's another $9M. But they keep signing old mediocrities to these deals and they take up valuable payroll space and roster spaces. I'm not sure we have over 5 minor leaguers in the system now that project into being big league regulars. What have we got to show in all the salary dumps that have taken place over the past several years? Look at the Randa trade. Both Chick and Germano are gone and for what? I don't know if either guy was a potential big leaguer but both are gone now. Who is left from the Aaron Boone deal? I don't count the Guillen deal as a dump cause he wasn't making much and he wanted to play every day and the Reds couldn't guarantee that to him. We traded Corey Lidle and all we have to show for him is Anderson Machado. Now I realize most of this was in the past but Wayne has shown a propensity to deal away the future for a shot at winning in the present. But the guys he has traded for have turned out to be injured or ineffective. That's no better than what JimBo ever did.

I know the Cardinals aren't popular on here but when they needed a pitcher, they went out and got Jeff Weaver and gambled Duncan could fix him which he did. They also needed a 2nd baseman and got Belliard. Isringhausen went down and they moved Wainwright into the closer's spot. They have people over there that can fix guys who are broken and minor leaguers who can fetch more than a Joe Mays and can step into an important role in the lineup, rotation or bullpen. That's how you run a major league team, not by trading minor leaguers for Jeff Conine or signing 30-something relief pitchers to multi-year deals. I'm not on the Fire Wayne bandwagon cause if he were fired today, a new search would have to take place and a new guy would come in with a different philosophy and there's another year or 2 down the drain.

I'm frustrated more than angry. I don't expect a winner every year and I'm more patient than most. Even if signing scrappy vets like Conine is throwing a bone to the fans, they still won't come out unless the team wins. Instead of signing guys like Conine, we should be giving a youngster a chance to play that role but we don't have one. And it's probably a little early to tell if Wayne's draft and minor league deals bear fruit but I'm starting to get impatient. And if I'm impatient, I can only imagine how others feel.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Ron Madden
12-22-2006, 04:47 PM
I'm just afraid that it's going to be like this year after year after year. I'm ecstatic they didn't go after such dreck as Jason Marquis or the Private. But they keep signing guys like Gonzo to a $5M deals, Conine to a $2M deal, Weathers to a $2.5M deal and going to arbitration with Lohse who is going to command at least $5M a year. That's about $15M right there which is enough to get an elite free agent. Plus Milton's salary is off the books after this year so there's another $9M. But they keep signing old mediocrities to these deals and they take up valuable payroll space and roster spaces. I'm not sure we have over 5 minor leaguers in the system now that project into being big league regulars. What have we got to show in all the salary dumps that have taken place over the past several years? Look at the Randa trade. Both Chick and Germano are gone and for what? I don't know if either guy was a potential big leaguer but both are gone now. Who is left from the Aaron Boone deal? I don't count the Guillen deal as a dump cause he wasn't making much and he wanted to play every day and the Reds couldn't guarantee that to him. We traded Corey Lidle and all we have to show for him is Anderson Machado. Now I realize most of this was in the past but Wayne has shown a propensity to deal away the future for a shot at winning in the present. But the guys he has traded for have turned out to be injured or ineffective. That's no better than what JimBo ever did.

I know the Cardinals aren't popular on here but when they needed a pitcher, they went out and got Jeff Weaver and gambled Duncan could fix him which he did. They also needed a 2nd baseman and got Belliard. Isringhausen went down and they moved Wainwright into the closer's spot. They have people over there that can fix guys who are broken and minor leaguers who can fetch more than a Joe Mays and can step into an important role in the lineup, rotation or bullpen. That's how you run a major league team, not by trading minor leaguers for Jeff Conine or signing 30-something relief pitchers to multi-year deals. I'm not on the Fire Wayne bandwagon cause if he were fired today, a new search would have to take place and a new guy would come in with a different philosophy and there's another year or 2 down the drain.

I'm frustrated more than angry. I don't expect a winner every year and I'm more patient than most. Even if signing scrappy vets like Conine is throwing a bone to the fans, they still won't come out unless the team wins. Instead of signing guys like Conine, we should be giving a youngster a chance to play that role but we don't have one. And it's probably a little early to tell if Wayne's draft and minor league deals bear fruit but I'm starting to get impatient. And if I'm impatient, I can only imagine how others feel.

Well said Chip.

The excitement I felt when Wayne was hired has faded away.

Most of Waynes moves have done little or nothing to improve the Team. Some of the moves have hurt.

It's too early to call for Waynes head, but he has made enough moves for us to form an opinion. I want him to succeed but Wayne worries me.

Marc D
12-22-2006, 04:59 PM
Its funny how simple things are when you look beyond the details and focus on the priciples in play for any given situation. last year new ownership/GM comes in and its "wahoo!, we're saved" even though they had the same fundamental plan Dan O and company did. We are going to be competitive while we rebuild. To paraphrase Jerry McGuire, they lost me at "while".

The only way we will ever truely compete again is if we completely restock the ML system and then wait to see how the prospects develop. You can't harvest crops that have never been planted. This new regime should have taken the chance in 2006 to say to the public "I know this hurts but it's the only way to ever win again." Most would have blames it all on Lidner and Dan O, accepted it and we'd be looking at real hope by 2008/2009.

The only way to restock the minors is to sell off the good china at the highest possible prices and hope the prospects we get in return pan out. Obvioulsy this means quit falling for the "we're in the neighborhood of .500 so we're still in this thing" trap, go against the grain and sell, sell, sell. If it doesn't work, then thats the risk you take but at least we'll be taking a shot at it.

The current plan of staying close to .500 to keep decent attendance and hopefully rebuilding through the draft is simply unacceptable.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 05:10 PM
I know the Cardinals aren't popular on here but when they needed a pitcher, they went out and got Jeff Weaver and gambled Duncan could fix him which he did.Don't let the postseason fool you. He was every bit fodder during the regular season, so I doubt if he discovered the Holy Grail suddenly in the postseason.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 05:13 PM
Its funny how simple things are when you look beyond the details and focus on the priciples in play for any given situation. last year new ownership/GM comes in and its "wahoo!, we're saved" even though they had the same fundamental plan Dan O and company did. We are going to be competitive while we rebuild. To paraphrase Jerry McGuire, they lost me at "while".

The only way we will ever truely compete again is if we completely restock the ML system and then wait to see how the prospects develop. You can't harvest crops that have never been planted. This new regime should have taken the chance in 2006 to say to the public "I know this hurts but it's the only way to ever win again." Most would have blames it all on Lidner and Dan O, accepted it and we'd be looking at real hope by 2008/2009.

The only way to restock the minors is to sell off the good china at the highest possible prices and hope the prospects we get in return pan out. Obvioulsy this means quit falling for the "we're in the neighborhood of .500 so we're still in this thing" trap, go against the grain and sell, sell, sell. If it doesn't work, then thats the risk you take but at least we'll be taking a shot at it.

The current plan of staying close to .500 to keep decent attendance and hopefully rebuilding through the draft is simply unacceptable.They said they saw winning right away as the prize. There was no mention of "going to be competitive while we rebuild." That is your translation in hindsight. Their position, "we will put our efforts to winning this year (2006)."

Chip R
12-22-2006, 05:20 PM
Don't let the postseason fool you. He was every bit fodder during the regular season, so I doubt if he discovered the Holy Grail suddenly in the postseason.


At first he was but he steadily improved over the last few weeks. My point was that if the Reds or pretty much any other team would have signed Weaver, he would have done no better than Joe Mays.

Marc D
12-22-2006, 05:44 PM
They said they saw winning right away as the prize. There was no mention of "going to be competitive while we rebuild." That is your translation in hindsight. Their position, "we will put our efforts to winning this year (2006)."

Notice I didn't use any direct quotes. That was sure the message I got in 2006 and hindsight had nothing to do with it. I'm not going to dig up quotes but I'm positive Kriv said something about fixing the sorry state of our ML system when he took over. At roughly the same time, the other side of his mouth was providing the direct quote you have on speed dial there, we're going to win now. Fix the minors+win in 2006=win while we rebuild to me.

Semantics aside, the point remains. This franchise is going nowhere untill they do a complete tear down and rebuild and hopefully do it well. I have only slightly more faith in Krivsky to do the job than I did in Dan O and I have felt this way since early 2006 season, not just this past garbage.

Falls City Beer
12-22-2006, 07:45 PM
Guys like Cyclone, Steel, edabbs, and me tried to warn you all.

Once again, Cassandra gets no props.

Spring~Fields
12-22-2006, 08:10 PM
Guys like Cyclone, Steel, edabbs, and me tried to warn you all.

Once again, Cassandra gets no props.

True.

Even Lou gave us a hint when he came to town and apparently said, no thanks.

traderumor
12-22-2006, 10:37 PM
Guys like Cyclone, Steel, edabbs, and me tried to warn you all.

Once again, Cassandra gets no props.Just a regular John the Baptist, you are. Well, except this book is still in the process of being written. But don't let that stop you from breaking your arm there.

dsmith421
12-22-2006, 11:50 PM
Just a regular John the Baptist, you are. Well, except this book is still in the process of being written. But don't let that stop you from breaking your arm there.

If a hot chick brings me FCB's head on a silver platter, I will be assured that the Reds have hired the right GM.

Cyclone792
12-23-2006, 02:05 AM
Cyclone, fantastic points all around, as per usual of your posts.

I just think that the casual fans expect (and it was discussed here on a daily basis) that Free Agency was the jagged little pill that could spur an 80-82 team in a crappy division to the pennant.

But, in reality, the Reds aren't in a position to compete currently because of two items.

1 - Bad Contracts (as you alluded to above) to Griffey & Milton
2 - 15 years or so of poor farm system development

What is going to change the above? I'm afraid the answer is time. Another answer is direction.

Could a Paul DePodesta do some positive damage in Cincinnati? I think he could. However, I'm not pushing Wayne Krivsky off the machine at all, in fact I think he's got the ability to do some of the same things that Beane could do. I think that Almarez and Barton were victims of change, not because their job performance was less than stellar.

I'm also glad that the short-term wasn't a player in the FA. The contracts that were tossed are going to be albatrosses in the next couple of years. I'm not convinced that the Cubs will finish .500 with all that they acquired. Gary Matthews Jr.? Yeesh.

I'm interested to see how the rest of the off season plays out even into spring training for WayneK and the Reds.

Chip covered quite a bit in his response, and I have to say that I'm pretty much with him on just about everything he said.

As far as your two specific points, I'd say Krivsky's shot himself in the foot with the first one. He's spent a hefty chunk of money on players who won't provide the run value that that type of money could provide if he looked elsewhere. Bowden did the same thing, as did O'Brien. It's a bad pattern that I hoped Krivsky wouldn't have fallen into, but it seems like that's what's happened. I don't mind overpaying players who do provide lots of run value, such as a salary that an Adam Dunn or Aaron Harang might command, but I do mind overpaying and constantly acquiring players who provide very little run value.

This includes the fact that there also tends to be more guys that fit the latter category than the former, and more dollars wasted in the latter category than the former. One Jeff Conine type of player is common, but when there's five Jeff Conine types of players it becomes evident that the cash could have been allocated in a better manner for producing runs. That's the cumulative effect many people have been referring too.

With the second point and the farm system, I'll give Krivsky credit, and it's actually the one area where I felt way back when he was hired that he'd help the franchise out. The farm system had a better year in 2006 developing prospects than we've been used to in recent seasons. It's difficult to evaluate just how much impact Krivsky himself had on that, but he deserves some credit for it. That's one area that needs to succeed for this franchise to win. So far, there's not too much to gripe about.

Still, he needs to find his way out of the thick forest and get back on the road as far as his major league level decisions have been. Even if he's able to produce a solid farm system, I don't think it will hide all the mistakes on the major league level as well as this team will need them to do so.

WVRedsFan
12-23-2006, 02:27 AM
Great analysis by Chip and Cyclone.

Nothing more needs to be said, but does it appear to anyone else but me that Krivsky just signs players. How many is it now? 50? Like someone else said, throw enough on the wall and someone sticks. I find the recent signings as nothing more than junk. Seriously, Jeff Conine and Bubba Crosby combined with Moeller and Castro? Alot of money there that might have bought a pretty good pitcher (what is it--$5 million?) By doing this we have aged the club and none of them will start regularly. When the decision was made to go with a 37-year old first baseman and an iffy outfield (made more iffy by The Trade, but I won't go there), we come back with Bubba Crosby and Jeff Conine?

Forgive me, but it seems foolish at best.

GAC
12-23-2006, 05:16 AM
I fully agree that some of these players are marginal at the least. Will some of them contribute in '07, such as a Conine? That is yet to be seen since he is going to be used in a platoon role, and others may not make it out of ST or remain on the roster.

Some are a crapshoot, I will certainly admit that.

And some would contend they are just CRAP! :lol:

But I don't believe they are bad contracts in the same vein as the huge multi-year deals the previous FO was prone to give out, and that have hamstrung this organization to the extent that we have to wait years to get out from under them because we also can't trade them away.

Several of these can be easily dumped if need be.

Collectively, yes, it adds up to 24 Mil. But are some saying that all of these will not contribute/help this team in '07, and will fail? Therefore they are ALL bad contracts?

Was everything Krivsky did last year a failure? I know that to some on here, there is nothing this guy can do that would satisfy them. They had a bias against this guy before he even came to the Reds, and aren't gonna cut him any slack whatsoever, but look for opportunities.

Were there any surprises that many of us didn't expect?

For the last couple of years I've listened to some on here lament the low-risk investments/contracts of such players such as Aurilia, Weathers, Hatteberg, and a few others (including Freel), and claim the end results were not going to be good. Yet they were proven wrong.

And I've always loved the excuse "Well, they just had a 'career year'" :lol:

Possibility that a guy like Conine, in the role he is going to serve, might pan out?

I think Chip brought up a good point, and that these are basically possibly "stopgap" measures to help us for a couple years so we don't try and rush some in the farm system (give them more time), while waiting for contracts like the Milton and Jr to be gone.

And that is the way I view it looking at this current off-season market.... why sign some of these very marginal players to multi-year, ridiculous contracts, possibly compounding the problem, while we're waiting to get out from under a couple ourselves?

If Wayne Krivsky even thinks that these are the types of players that will bring the Reds to a competitive level, then I'll fall off that fence (as far as my assessment of Kriv) faster then a crow perched on a post in farmer Jone's corn field.

I just don't believe he does. But Wayne could prove me wrong. He grabbed some of these guys because they are cheap and there wasn't much else available to fit that particular area of need without having to pay an arm and a leg for. And even then there was no guarantee that player was the answer. Only the contract would be guaranteed.

I just simply happen to agree with Castellini when he basically looks at this market and says it's insane. Especially when I look at the dire needs of this team and in what vital areas.

I would have not been happy if they, needing an OFer, had come home with a Gary Matthews contract.... or a pitcher.... a Jason Marquis/Lily type.

I personally believe those contracts would have been far more damaging and set us back then the ones we have seen, and in which RL listed.

Alot of those players on that list, as much as it does not excite me, can be dumped some time this year or next with little or no damage.

A bad multi-year contract, as we have all already seen, many times over, cannot.

I'm not that "hip" when it comes to following the trade market and how may/may not be available or had. So can anyone else, who does follow that scenario, show me a list of players that would have met our needs that were either in the FA market or possibly could have been acquired via a trade?

I think a pitcher was pretty much an impossibility. We can all talk about a Zito all we want; but I doubt that guy would even consider a midwest (fly over) state regardless of what we threw at him.

But what OFer and/or 1B "platooner", who was worth any salt, could we have possibly acquired/traded for, and we know for a fact that this FO hadn't even made "back room" inquiries about? I know there have been some names, like an Eduardo Perez and Craig Wilson thrown out there; but do you know that Krivsky hadn't made any inquires about them? That the host team asked for too much in return? Or that a guy like Wilson set a demand (like an Aurilia) that we couldn't honor?

My points (above) are not really a defense of Krivsky so much; but that we, as fans, on the outside looking in, don't know nor consider all the other variables that kill/prevent trade ideas from becoming a reality. We just see a player and go "Ohh! Ohh! we need to go after him. He'd be a good fit".

It's easy to say that as a fan. Now place yourselves in the real world, and consider all the different variables any GM would face in that back room or over the phone, that we don't see on the surface, but would prevent that deal from happening or turn into a bad trade.

And finally, here is an important element to me, and it may be why Krivsky is giving these marginal, low risk players a "try"....

He doesn't want to trade any of the core players we have, including some in our farm system who are developing, and who are obviously being asked about. What has he given up?

I take some comfort in that.

Spring~Fields
12-23-2006, 09:28 AM
I fully agree that some of these players are marginal at the least. Will some of them contribute in '07, such as a Conine? That is yet to be seen since he is going to be used in a platoon role, and others may not make it out of ST or remain on the roster.

Some are a crapshoot, I will certainly admit that.

And some would contend they are just CRAP! :lol:


For the last couple of years I've listened to some on here lament the low-risk investments/contracts of such players such as Aurilia, Weathers, Hatteberg, and a few others (including Freel), and claim the end results were not going to be good. Yet they were proven wrong.


Why would a wise man flirt with a crapshoot if he is good at judging talent?

The end results were not good, the team was a below .500 team before those players came and they were after they came even in the face of a very weak central division last year. So obviously those pickups and cheap contracts were not sufficient to make the team win more games than they lose. 6 straight below .500, losing seasons, with number 7 on it's way.

What the people complain about and they are right, is that this organization does not have the smarts or money to bring in true upgrades that will bring the team to winning status and above.

Now this master of scouting talent Krivsky has ran off about 50 trades eating up cash and time to achieve what, another below .500 team and he shows no signs of being smart enough to do better.

The optimist that take the high road, the wait and see crowd has been proven wrong for six straight losing seasons, because they are unrealistic by choice.

TC81190
12-23-2006, 01:56 PM
Watching Wayne Krivsky in action, to me, is like suffering a perpetual brain aneurism. And a really stupid one at that.

I could see if maaaaaybe he was going to platoon at 1B, but, I'm sure a one Joey Votto could outproduce him in such a role next year.

But according to Marc, this move was made for OF depth. Um...what? We already have 2 guys that can play RF in Ryan Freel and Chris Denorfia. With Jr. down, I could see it as a reasonable move if by "outfield depth" they didn't mean "social-security eligible starter", which after a steady diet of Royce Clayton last year, is probably what they have in mind. If they're looking for outfield depth behind Freel and Deno, there's plenty of >1,000,000 dollar bench guys out there in FA that aren't 40 years old, and don't have a walker with little tennis balls attached to the feet to get them around the dugout/basepaths. Hell, they could've kept Harris and see if he could be another Freel, playing 2B/OF.

I think that this pretty much shows what kind of GM Wayne really is, and it's slowly becoming more like the GM who pulled the trigger on 'The Trade' rather than the GM who pulled off the trade for Bronson Arroyo/Brandon Phillips/etc. .

TC81190
12-23-2006, 02:00 PM
You're missing the point. That or you're just accepting mediocrity.

Schuerholz qualifies as a freak. As does Jocketty. Terry Ryan's probably up there too, and an argument could be made for Dave Dombrowski. None of those guys ever had the luxury of working with monster payrolls. Payrolls somewhat higher than the Reds? Sure, some of them, but they weren't considerably higher, not like certain other teams.

People can look at that list of GMs and summarize that, "oh, those guys are probably the best GMs in all of baseball."

And that is the point. Look, if the Cincinnati Reds are going to win the NL Central, they have to beat out five other specific teams. If they're going to win the NL Wildcard, they have to beat out 12 other specific teams. That's on Wayne Krivsky and his ability to be one of the best GMs in the game and field a legitimate contending team. Not being one of those guys simply isn't acceptable because he doesn't have the payroll luxury to swallow his mistakes. If he's not one of the best and doesn't have the payroll luxury to swallow his mistakes, then he'll just field one of the many teams that get kicked around year in and year out.

If Wayne Krivsky's going to transform the Reds into the A's, or the Braves, or the Cardinals, then he's going to have to be one of the best GMs in the game. He's going to have to be a freak.

Which I have no faith in him to do.

WMR
12-23-2006, 06:03 PM
Anyone impressed with what Krivsky has done with the Reds franchise up to this point is satisfied with a lower standard of acceptability than myself.

What has he DONE. Not what he is supposedly planning to do. There IS value for the money that Krivsky has spent so recklessly on sub-par, aging talent without any sort of PECOTA ratings predicting anything but a further decline in talent. A million here, three million there... It adds up quick and that money could have been much better spent to improve the Reds both immediately AND long-term rather than functioning as a method of acquiring some anointed 'place-holder' for some OTHER projected major league player.

Aronchis
12-23-2006, 06:09 PM
Anyone impressed with what Krivsky has done with the Reds franchise up to this point is satisfied with a lower standard of acceptability than myself.

What has he DONE. Not what he is supposedly planning to do. There IS value for the money that Krivsky has spent so recklessly on sub-par, aging talent without any sort of PECOTA ratings predicting anything but a further decline in talent. A million here, three million there... It adds up quick and that money could have been much better spent to improve the Reds both immediately AND long-term rather than functioning as a method of acquiring some anointed 'place-holder' for some OTHER projected major league player.

Krivsky disagrees with you. He says spend money on placeholders and deal em off when the time comes when youngsters are ready to do the job in his estimation. Unlike Bowden, he is much more conservative with prospects(could hand Votto and Medlock with jobs out of spring training, Bowden would of).

Not a flashy guy whatsoever, but that is Transitional Progress.

WMR
12-23-2006, 06:14 PM
Krivsky disagrees with you. He says spend money on placeholders and deal em off when the time comes when youngsters are ready to do the job in his estimation. Unlike Bowden, he is much more conservative with prospects(could hand Votto and Medlock with jobs out of spring training, Bowden would of).

Not a flashy guy whatsoever, but that is Transitional Progress.

Better players will always fetch more in trade than Worse players, correct?

What it comes down to is management not wanting to spend the cash necessary... the thing is, they don't even NEED to spend more. Utilize the players that we have and pool your resources to maybe instead get 2 players for every 3 otherwise subpar players. Okay: So you'll have to spend approximately 25-30% more per every 3 players, but THAT IS where management has to step up and demonstrate a willingness to SPEND MONEY. Raise payroll a reasonable 15-20 million and the problem is solved if you want an equal number of players from Free Agency (which I would argue probably won't be absolutely needed either) and that is not an unreasonable demand of Mr. Castellini considering the multitude of new revenue streams the Reds have been provided.

Marc D
12-23-2006, 06:33 PM
Krivsky disagrees with you. He says spend money on placeholders and deal em off when the time comes when youngsters are ready to do the job in his estimation. Unlike Bowden, he is much more conservative with prospects(could hand Votto and Medlock with jobs out of spring training, Bowden would of).

Not a flashy guy whatsoever, but that is Transitional Progress.

I'm fine with that if you have plenty of youngsters on the way. We have what, 3 or 4? How do placeholders fix the lack of ML talent issue?

The Reds have a talent issue at the MLB level, thats clear. You can fix this via FA, via trade or via your ML system. Its as simple as that. FA is out for obvious reasons, trades require something to trade in return so scratch that. Infusion of talent from the ML system is the only thing left and the draft alone isn't going to fix that problem anytime soon.

I wanted a wholesale rebuild last year when a lot of guys had more value and it was a sellers market. I still want one and untill we get one, they are doing the same thing Lidner and company were doing. Lots of talk but the only action was intended to keep the Reds just good enough to have decent attendance.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Aronchis
12-23-2006, 07:24 PM
I'm fine with that if you have plenty of youngsters on the way. We have what, 3 or 4? How do placeholders fix the lack of ML talent issue?

The Reds have a talent issue at the MLB level, thats clear. You can fix this via FA, via trade or via your ML system. Its as simple as that. FA is out for obvious reasons, trades require something to trade in return so scratch that. Infusion of talent from the ML system is the only thing left and the draft alone isn't going to fix that problem anytime soon.

I wanted a wholesale rebuild last year when a lot of guys had more value and it was a sellers market. I still want one and untill we get one, they are doing the same thing Lidner and company were doing. Lots of talk but the only action was intended to keep the Reds just good enough to have decent attendance.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Your not listening to the dialect. Krivsky is telling you the Reds already have some pieces for building, but we must be patient and allow him to bring the others in place internally and through "closet" deals like with Phillips. That means they feel a winning product is probably close, in baseball years, 2-3 years is close(2008-9). They simply don't feel a total "rebuild" in necessary on the major league team(now on the minor league system........). But patience and letting young players mature as they see fit, not as "we" see fit. The dialect is very very clear on that subject. Thus why spend multi-millions on risky players who won't perform to that contract? It is part of the reasoning that gave way to the "trade" last summer. Jetison 2 future overpaid bats for 2 young cheap middle relievers while you replace those bats with what you are looking for(Gonzo/Prospect>Lopez because the dialect believes defense is more important in offense at SS, Bruce>Kearns) during the rebuilding phase. While many people believe that trade was meant for last year, it was only partially. Bray was a rookie and couldn't be asked for signifigent contributions to 2007 at the earliest, so it wasn't all for 06(Bray fits the 2-3 year timeframe quite well).

The Reds payroll still has plenty of wiggleroom for moves, but Krivsky won't reverse the dialect, he must have transition. If a deal comes up that satisfies Transitional Progress, he will make a move. Trading off everybody to "rebuild over" would be a ugly sign Krivsky has lost control and is a listless ship from his POV(though we could argue he is already a listless ship). He should of done by now if that was the plan. Transitional Progress has spoken.

Falls City Beer
12-23-2006, 08:10 PM
Gonzalez, Conine, Stanton, Cormier--like any DanO pickup--will bring absolutely nothing in return at the deadline. Nothing. Because no one will want them. They won't even get FA compensation from these stiffs because they will have retired by the time they are FAs again.

Marc D
12-23-2006, 08:43 PM
Your not listening to the dialect.... Transitional Progress has spoken.

I'm not sure who coined this Transitional Progress phrase but it seems to me its what they used to call whisitling past the graveyard.

Ltlabner
12-23-2006, 08:49 PM
Gonzalez, Conine, Stanton, Cormier--like any DanO pickup--will bring absolutely nothing in return at the deadline. Nothing. Because no one will want them. They won't even get FA compensation from these stiffs because they will have retired by the time they are FAs again.

I tend to agree with you FCB on Conine. Stanton and Cormier might have some value as everybody looks for some arms at the deadline. Heck, Cleveland just added a guy who's 42 or 43 to their bullpen. I don't think the return would be much of anything, but a return none the less.

I disagree on Gonzo, however. I wouldn't call him a stiff and his defense is pretty highly touted. Most teams are looking for a solid D short stop, even with a light hitting stick. And being 30 I highly doubt he's ready to retire.

kheidg-
12-23-2006, 11:22 PM
"David Weathers and I go way back to the original Marlins," he said. "Obviously I've played a lot with Alex Gonzalez. We won a World Series together. He's probably the best shortstop I've ever played with. I'm looking forward to watching him in action again."

Looking back at the SS he has played with Walt Weiss, Edgar Renteria, Mike Bordick, Jimmy Rollins, Miguel Tejada. I think I'd probably list Gonzalez behind Tejada, Renteria and Rollins.

GAC
12-24-2006, 05:12 AM
Why would a wise man flirt with a crapshoot if he is good at judging talent?

Because there is low risk involved, and sometimes it will work, and sometimes it won't. But it is still low risk.

Would you rather that crapshoot was a Gary Mathews contract, or a Jeff Conine one?

I just simply believe that these are stopgap moves to buy us more time.... player development while we still continue to shop/look for something that is not only better but more long term.

Yeah, we may go into the '07 season not much better then we were in '06. It's just that when I look at this market, and that a vast majority of teams in MLB aren't very active because of the lack of talent and inflated prices, I'm glad the Red's FO is not throwing what monies they have at it.

Which IMHO is a far worse crapshoot with greater implications/effect.

People are upset that they haven't "splurged" in this current FA market.

I'm tired of a FO that hands out bad multi-year contracts and ends up stuck under them with no way out.

Have contracts like the Jr and Milton ones hurt this team? I think they have.

Are some of the contracts they've handed out this off-season bad? Some probably will prove to be. And they can get out from under them very easily if need be.

They couldn't if it were a Marquis, Matthews, etc.

In another year or two, a lot of teams will regret what they gave guys, and they'll be looking for ways to unload them and move them off the books.

As far as I'm concerned, and what I'd really like to see, is for this FO to not wastefully throw money in this market, but to lock up guys like Dunn, Harang, and Arroyo. The more the market goes up, the more teams are scared of losing players. So they'll panic and overpay to keep them.

The Reds need to address this situation right now. Not wait. It's not gonna get any better.

So I am more concerned about them making that commitment to retain core players we have now, rather them foolishly throwing money into this off-season FA market, which may prevent them from retaining a Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, and/or maybe a few other players.

And over the next 1-2 years the Milton and Jr contracts come off the books (20 Mil).

Ltlabner
12-24-2006, 08:12 AM
As far as I'm concerned, and what I'd really like to see, is for this FO to not wastefully throw money in this market, but to lock up guys like Dunn, Harang, and Arroyo. The more the market goes up, the more teams are scared of losing players. So they'll panic and overpay to keep them.

I agree on the locking up Dunn (for longer than he already is), Harang and Arroyo if they will go for it. I'd rather overpay for their services since we already know what we will get rather than overpay for an unknown FA tallent. Or worse, overpay for a known tallent ala Matthews, Pierre, et al.

Krusty
12-24-2006, 09:12 AM
Sad thing is when a player is locked up to a longterm deal, the value you get from that deal doesn't usually show to the last two years of that contract when the player knows he has to work on the next contract.

mth123
12-24-2006, 10:26 AM
Because there is low risk involved, and sometimes it will work, and sometimes it won't. But it is still low risk.

Would you rather that crapshoot was a Gary Mathews contract, or a Jeff Conine one?

I just simply believe that these are stopgap moves to buy us more time.... player development while we still continue to shop/look for something that is not only better but more long term.

I get that, but why "crapshoot" with a 40 year old who will not be an asset even if he has a good year? Why not go for a younger guy like JR House, Josh Phelps, Jon Knott or any of many others who were out there for the taking. They would be even cheaper and lower risk and if they perform the Reds would have a real asset under their control. I just don't see what is to be gained by having a 40 year old who projects to be run of the mill at best. You can get run of the mill anywhere and you don't have to trade even marginal prospects or spend $2 Million on it.

I don't think anyone expects WK to fill the space on the wall by paying for the "Mona Lisa." But why overpay for "Dogs Playing Poker" when you can pick it up a garage sale for a quarter?

TRF
12-24-2006, 11:58 AM
I'll point to the trade the Ranger/White Sox just completed as to why these 40 something players are not the way to go for the Reds.

For those that believe that these players can be flipped at the deadline for prospects, I say two things: thanks for believing the Reds have punted the 2007 season and why would you believe that prospects received for a Stanton or Cormier would help the Reds in 2008?

Basically the 2008 Reds (2007 version we pretty much know barring a FA signing in the next 3-4 weeks) look a lot like the 2007 version. Maybe Bruce and Bailey are there, if they don't flame out. There are no guarantees with prospects. The pen might have a member of the farm or two, or just restocked with other "veterans that no how to play the game." 1B? anyones guess. The OF? could be a complete shambles within 20 years. Hell, it's a complete shambles now.

Krivsky can talk about playing the game the right way, but he keeps throwing money in the paper shredder. On paper right now, the Reds look worse than the 2006 version. Krivsky ignored the gaping hole in the rotation and did nothing to address the weakened STARTING offense. What he did was try to shore up the bench, which he could have done by adding to the starting offense. (A quality RH OF would have moved Jr./Dunn to 1B, and sent Hatte to the bench) and add depth to the pen. yippee. His "depth" will have little value to the Reds during the season, and even less value at the deadline.

This team got real old real fast. It just didn't get better.

Now to the point that Krivsky improved the ML system. I respectfully disagree. What he did was MODIFY what DanO had already done. Pitch counts for pitcher, emphasize patience for hitters. He got rid of the tandem starter system, a system that did reduce injuries system wide. He got rid of the take the first pitch policy. But the emphasis on patience was still there. DanO's two drafts have so far been pretty successful. I'll give Krivsky's first draft until June to decide how well he did. But to say he's improved the ML system is to give him far too much credit. DanO set that ball in motion. Krivsky to his credit hasn't stopped the ball, just straightened it's path a bit. Good for him on that. But he has yet to acquire a single minor leaguer that I am even remotely excited about.

He's made three acquisitions, 3 that have had a positive impact on the Reds, with a 4th, Schoeneweiss, that could be a help regardless of whether he signs with the Reds or elsewhere (comp picks). Everything else cost the Reds a WC spot. And considering just how much Krivsky improved the club with the Arroyo/Phillips/Ross moves, to completely kill the team's playoff chance with everything else he did is almost impressive in it's failure. It's like reverse clutch GM'ing. His failure was on the level of an Ishtar or Waterworld. What's worse is that he decimated the offense for years to come in the process. And if FeLo becomes a league average defensive 2B, I'll just scream curses daily at Krivsky.

Deep, dark, demented Gypsy curses.

WMR
12-24-2006, 12:54 PM
Gonzo SS - Phillips 2B

VS.

Phillips SS - FeLo 2B

I know which of those 2 I'd prefer, and it isn't even close.

reds44
12-24-2006, 01:09 PM
Gonzo SS - Phillips 2B

VS.

Phillips SS - FeLo 2B

I know which of those 2 I'd prefer, and it isn't even close.

The 2nd one was never going to happen.

TRF
12-24-2006, 02:21 PM
The 2nd one was never going to happen.

And that is one of the bigger indictments of Krivsky's tenure. That same scenario is now being played out in Washington. My take is Cincinnati will have a slightly better defense, and that Washington will have much better offense at those two positions. the cost? a very replaceable Majewski.

Thing is, if the Reds had kept FeLo it makes Freel available for a trade. Freel gets a lot of press. In fact he gets so much pub for his on the field play, it almost drowns out his off-field "exploits". Package Freel with a minor league arm, and you could get that #3 or even a #2 and the impact on the offense would be negligible. Maybe not from the A's but maybe from a team like TB or even Detroit.

reds44
12-24-2006, 02:22 PM
And that is one of the bigger indictments of Krivsky's tenure. That same scenario is now being played out in Washington. My take is Cincinnati will have a slightly better defense, and that Washington will have much better offense at those two positions. the cost? a very replaceable Majewski.
Bray could end up being the better of the 2.

TRF
12-24-2006, 02:29 PM
So? FeLo wasn't traded for Bray. Kearns alone should have fetched Bray and prospects.

Hell, Kearns alone should have netted Jon Rauch.

reds44
12-24-2006, 02:35 PM
So? FeLo wasn't traded for Bray. Kearns alone should have fetched Bray and prospects.

Hell, Kearns alone should have netted Jon Rauch.
Lopez, Kearns, and Wagner were traded for Majewski, Bray, Clayton, Harris, and a minor league pitcher.

You can't sit here and pick out who was traded for who.

Actually, I think the trade started out as Kearns for Majewski straight up.


Btw, the fact that Clayton and now probably Harris won't be in the organization next year makes the trade look even worse.

RANDY IN INDY
12-24-2006, 02:47 PM
Clayton not in the organization making the trade look worse? I don't think so. Harris? Yet to be seen. The principals for the Reds in that trade are still there. How they perform this season will tell more about the trade than anything.

TRF
12-24-2006, 03:01 PM
Lopez, Kearns, and Wagner were traded for Majewski, Bray, Clayton, Harris, and a minor league pitcher.

You can't sit here and pick out who was traded for who.

Actually, I think the trade started out as Kearns for Majewski straight up.


Btw, the fact that Clayton and now probably Harris won't be in the organization next year makes the trade look even worse.

Believe me, I am well familiar with the particulars of the trade. And I think it started with Kearns. could have been for Maj, could have been Bray. It doesn't matter as neither was worth the offense the Reds gave up. Bray might be better of the two. At this point he couldn't be worse. In fact he might not be on the 25 man roster at the start of the season.

So if The Trade never happened, the Reds offense likely doesn't completely tank in Aug/Sept., the Reds have a couple of MAJOR trading chips, and Krivsky could have really helped the club.

Instead he trades for Jeff Conine. A decade too late.

IslandRed
12-24-2006, 03:39 PM
I get that, but why "crapshoot" with a 40 year old who will not be an asset even if he has a good year? Why not go for a younger guy like JR House, Josh Phelps, Jon Knott or any of many others who were out there for the taking. They would be even cheaper and lower risk and if they perform the Reds would have a real asset under their control. I just don't see what is to be gained by having a 40 year old who projects to be run of the mill at best. You can get run of the mill anywhere and you don't have to trade even marginal prospects or spend $2 Million on it.

You'd think. However, I would be wary of confusing run of the mill with replacement level. Krivsky may be overly fond of loading the bench and bullpen with guys like this, but at least there's some logic involved; guys like Conine and Weathers and Stanton have a long track record and, with the usual disclaimers about age and all, are about as predictable as bench/bullpen guys can be. It's not a high level of performance. But it's a reasonably certain one. It is the opposite of a crapshoot -- it's overpaying for perceived certainty.

I'm not a big fan of those moves, but let's remember that crapshoots on replacement-level talent are just that -- crapshoots. So what's the Plan B if House was signed and was terrible? During the season, replacements come from a much shallower pool. And don't forget that replacement level refers to the BEST of the freely available talent, not any half-decent minor-leaguer. Guys like Salmon and Coutlangus (referred to in other posts) can be worse -- much worse -- than replacement level when suddenly thrown into the big leagues and expected to perform. That's not a problem for me if we're punting and rebuilding. But if we're trying to hang, a guy who projects to put up a 4.25 is preferable to a guy who could put up a 4.25 but is equally likely to be in the sixes or sevens.

RANDY IN INDY
12-24-2006, 03:40 PM
Come to think of it, hasn't all this been discussed before, and in great detail?

GAC
12-24-2006, 06:13 PM
How they perform this season will tell more about the trade than anything.

Bingo! I'm looking at seeing what the longterm effect is with those arms before making any judgment.

TOBTTReds
12-24-2006, 06:24 PM
Bingo! I'm looking at seeing what the longterm effect is with those arms before making any judgment.

And we better do something with the money saved by next year in the off-season.

MWM
12-24-2006, 06:33 PM
Bingo! I'm looking at seeing what the longterm effect is with those arms before making any judgment.


You say that EVERY trade! :evil: Have an opinion. It's OK. It wont hurt, I promise! ;)

Falls City Beer
12-24-2006, 06:36 PM
You say that EVERY trade! :evil: Have an opinion. It's OK. It wont hurt, I promise! ;)

They should change the name of this site to "Hedgezone." :p:

RANDY IN INDY
12-24-2006, 07:07 PM
You say that EVERY trade! :evil: Have an opinion. It's OK. It wont hurt, I promise! ;)

I don't think there is anything wrong with evaluating a trade on more than 1/2 season. MWM. It has nothing to do with opinions. Opinions can change.

MWM
12-24-2006, 07:21 PM
I don't think there is anything wrong with evaluating a trade on more than 1/2 season. MWM. It has nothing to do with opinions. Opinions can change.


Opinions changing AFTER results are seen? That's not an opinion, that's hindsight. Seems some people on here enjoy evaluating moves when they happen only to have the "wait and see" crowd jump all over them. If we can't have an opinion when a move is made, before the results are seen, then what's the point of even talking about them. There should simply be a thread that says the move happened and nothing else.

If you don't want to evaluate a move based on its merits at the time, at least allow others the chance to do so. I enjoy the back and forth between those who like and those who don't like a move. I like seeing both sides of it. That's the fun stuff. But those who are constantly telling others to not have an opinion and wait and see are boring, IMO. It doesn't take any level of understanding of anything to offer an "opinion" of wait and see. Love it or hate it, but take a position. Everything else is just like saying that water is wet.

RANDY IN INDY
12-24-2006, 10:14 PM
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the trade was not a plus for Cincinnati last season. Anyone with half a brain can say it wasn't a good move, based on 1/2 season, but in my experience with baseball, trades sometimes have a way of looking somewhat different a little farther down the road.

Sure, have at it. Hash it and rehash it. Jump up and down and scream and say to everyone, "I told you so." Doesn't change a thing and really doesn't prove anything other than you have an opinion and based on what you saw for 1/2 a season, it makes you feel good about it.

If Bray and Majewski end up helping the Reds this season, or end up netting them a key piece that they really need, the trade won't look so bad. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but either way, last season is done. Over. It is what it is. We all know it didn't work out the way it was intended, but don't hop all over those of us who prefer to take a longer look, and think it may end up looking better than it did last season.

Falls City Beer
12-24-2006, 10:28 PM
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the trade was not a plus for Cincinnati last season. Anyone with half a brain can say it wasn't a good move, based on 1/2 season, but in my experience with baseball, trades sometimes have a way of looking somewhat different a little farther down the road.

Sure, have at it. Hash it and rehash it. Jump up and down and scream and say to everyone, "I told you so." Doesn't change a thing and really doesn't prove anything other than you have an opinion and based on what you saw for 1/2 a season, it makes you feel good about it.

If Bray and Majewski end up helping the Reds this season, or end up netting them a key piece that they really need, the trade won't look so bad. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but either way, last season is done. Over. It is what it is. We all know it didn't work out the way it was intended, but don't hop all over those of us who prefer to take a longer look, and think it may end up looking better than it did last season.


Again, though, the point is that there are many on here who say "wait and see" after every deal that doesn't work out in favor of the Reds. It's a defense mechanism; it buys people time to keep from having to admit they were wrong.

For example, I dogged the Phillips acquisition pretty hard last season, but Phillips proved me very wrong in my assessment. Fine. I admitted as much, ate crow, and moved on. While everyone else immediately and consistently felt that Krivsky had pulled off the masterheist. Okay, fine. No one saying "wait and see" on that one, eh? (Though, I think it's fair to say one should be dubious of Phillips, and "waiting and seeing" if he can do it two years in a row isn't the worst bit of advice--but then I'm sure GAC is confident that we don't need to "wait and see" on his abilities).

MWM
12-24-2006, 10:44 PM
Randy, the point is that what you're saying is not evaluating a trade. It's waiting to see. I think a trade can be evaluated when it happens. Actually, that's the best time to evluate it. Sometimes bad trades work out in the long run, sometimes great trades wind up as awful. If two players traded suffer career ending injuries in their first game with a new team, does that mean that it was a great trade for the team trading them away because of the result? How something works out doesn't always justify a move that made.

As far as not taking a rocket scientist, it takes even less intellect to look at a trade three years after it happens to determine if it was the right move. Again, why even talk about it if we're not allowed to form opinions until after everything plays out over the long haul. If that's the case, maybe now we can start calling the Rob Bell trade to Texas a success because EdE made a contribution last year. Nice trade, Jimbo! :evil:

RANDY IN INDY
12-24-2006, 11:31 PM
See, I don't have a problem saying that the trade didn't work out for the Reds, based on the last half of last season, but that portion of last season is not going to be the end all on how this trade is evaluated.


How something works out doesn't always justify a move that made. OK, whatever that means.


As far as not taking a rocket scientist, it takes even less intellect to look at a trade three years after it happens to determine if it was the right move. I certainly hope a general manager is looking at the potential of players he acquires past 1/2 a season but that's just me, I guess.

reds44
12-25-2006, 12:35 AM
See, I don't have a problem saying that the trade didn't work out for the Reds, based on the last half of last season, but that portion of last season is not going to be the end all on how this trade is evaluated.

OK, whatever that means.

I certainly hope a general manager is looking at the potential of players he acquires past 1/2 a season but that's just me, I guess.

Some things don't turn out what you expect. It's easy to look back and say, oh man that moved sucked. However that doesn't mean at the time it wasn't a good move.

See: trading for Griffey.

If everything went as planned, baseball would be boring.

GAC
12-25-2006, 04:17 AM
For example, I dogged the Phillips acquisition pretty hard last season, but Phillips proved me very wrong in my assessment. Fine. I admitted as much, ate crow, and moved on. While everyone else immediately and consistently felt that Krivsky had pulled off the masterheist. Okay, fine. No one saying "wait and see" on that one, eh? (Though, I think it's fair to say one should be dubious of Phillips, and "waiting and seeing" if he can do it two years in a row isn't the worst bit of advice--but then I'm sure GAC is confident that we don't need to "wait and see" on his abilities).

I've never really offered much of an opinion on BP either way, other than he was a nice surprise last year for the Reds, and..... while following the Indians (living here in central Ohio), I watched the Indians organization put way too much pressure on this young player, built him up, handed him the job, and then when he showed inconsistency in play, which all 21 yr olds will do (see Encarnacion), they jerked him around.

And sometimes an invariable, such as a change of scenery, does help a young ball player. ;)

But when it comes to a young, developing ballplayer, regardless of who it is, whom all see has potential, but lacks the maturity and ML experience, there is nothing wrong with a "wait and see" (attitude of patience) with that player.

Isn't that offering one's opinion?

Some fan's "hobby", and I understand it's fun to do, feel they can project a young players future performance and whether he will be worth the investment and time.

Have at it.

How can you properly do that with a 21 yr old? How do you assign variables for inexperience/immaturity?

Why should it bother anyone because myself, and others, won't come out with a definitive position on a certain young player(s)?

It has nothing to do with not wanting to be proven wrong. I simply don't know.

And some of your positions FCB shift more then the tectonic plates. You're one of the "Please Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood" posters on here! ;)

GAC
12-25-2006, 04:30 AM
They should change the name of this site to "Hedgezone." :p:

I don't have this obsession of needing to be right, so I can come on here and say "I told you so." :mooner:

Some like to stake out a definitive position on something that is even unknown/unpredictable. They also like the taste of foot. :devil:

Ltlabner
12-25-2006, 08:08 AM
Randy, the point is that what you're saying is not evaluating a trade. It's waiting to see. I think a trade can be evaluated when it happens. Actually, that's the best time to evluate it.

You evalute the theroy of the trade right after it happens.

You evalute the results of the trade after you "wait and see".

Both are valid and reasonable times for evaluation.

mth123
12-25-2006, 09:18 AM
I'm not a big fan of those moves, but let's remember that crapshoots on replacement-level talent are just that -- crapshoots. So what's the Plan B if House was signed and was terrible? During the season, replacements come from a much shallower pool. And don't forget that replacement level refers to the BEST of the freely available talent, not any half-decent minor-leaguer. Guys like Salmon and Coutlangus (referred to in other posts) can be worse -- much worse -- than replacement level when suddenly thrown into the big leagues and expected to perform. That's not a problem for me if we're punting and rebuilding. But if we're trying to hang, a guy who projects to put up a 4.25 is preferable to a guy who could put up a 4.25 but is equally likely to be in the sixes or sevens.

I understand your points and you are correct about replacement level players. Where we disagree is in the expectation of performance of the Reds' signees.

I agree Stanton will probably be ok, but his role would not be filled by replacement players. Bray and Cormier would move-up a spot and the 3rd LH in the pen would be the replacement guy. We are talking about a LOOGY or long reliever. That is the very spot to break in a Coutlangus and we still have Shackelford who we know can get lefty hitters out.

As for Weathers. I just think he is going to perform below replacement level. His HR and Walks were at that level last year. It was only his BABIP that allowed him to post a good ERA. I expect 5+ not 4.25.

Conine is just as likely to fall flat as any younger guy. If the Reds would have signed House or Phelps your right about no plan B. What is the plan B if Conine falls flat? 40 year olds who were marginal to begin with become powerless .180 hitters fairly regularly. Conine's OBP in 2006 was below .330 and his slugging was below .400. They could get that by just letting Hatte play full time (which I'm not in favor of but the point is Conine adds nothing that wasn't already available). Conine hasn't slugged above .450 since 2003 and has only had an OBP above .350 once since 2001 (2005). Not sure what replacement level for a 1B is but I'm pretty sure Conine is close to it. He certainly isn't up to average for that position. Why would the Phillies sign Werth for $500K or so and be so quick to dump Conine? They think Werth will put up better numbers than Conine? Maybe the Reds could have gone an extra $250K for Werth. It would still be cheaper than Conine, wouldn't have cost any prospects (or suspects in this case), have more upside, and (at least the Phillies think) is more likely to perform at the higher level of the 2 in 2007.

For me, the point is really that signing these guys is punting and rebuilding. I really do not believe that the team can compete as they are. If we're going with "placeholders" as some have said, lets get younger ones and see if they can turn into an asset. Finishing 5th with these guys doesn't accomplish anything. Finishing 5th with say a House, Salmon and Coutlangus may not either, but it could reveal that we have a player there in one of them.