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WVRedsFan
12-22-2006, 01:29 AM
Just trying to project the offense of the Cincinnati Reds as we know them today. Does this look reasonable?:



Pos Player Age HR RBI OBP

1B Hatteberg 37 9 43 0.361
Conine 40 12 52 0.348
2B Phillips 25 12 55 0.324
SS Gonzalez 29 11 50 0.292
3B Encarna 23 20 75 0.301
LF Dunn 27 40 100 0.383
CF Griffey 37 30 90 0.374
RF Freel 30 4 30 0.367
Denorfia 26 3 35 0.353
C Ross 29 12 50 0.322


Where am I pessimistic or optimistic? This is based on Phillips, Hatteberg and Ross not having career years again and the rest up to career norms. If this is close, the offense would hit 146 HR's.

guttle11
12-22-2006, 01:31 AM
I think you got Hatteberg's HR and RBI mixed up.

Otherwise I'm losing it...

EDIT: nevermind, I see it now.

Looks reasonable to me. Only thing I could see being that far off is Phillips HR total. I think he'll hit 20, but that's a total hunch.

WVRedsFan
12-22-2006, 01:33 AM
I think you got Hatteberg's HR and RBI mixed up.

Otherwise I'm losing it...

EDIT: nevermind, I see it now.

Looks reasonable to me.

So...

Providing everyone stays healthy, the offense will not be so bad?

Interesting. Now the pitching. I won't make a chart for that (as pitiful as I am with charts).

mth123
12-22-2006, 07:43 AM
Just trying to project the offense of the Cincinnati Reds as we know them today. Does this look reasonable?:



Pos Player Age HR RBI OBP

1B Hatteberg 37 9 43 0.361
Conine 40 12 52 0.348
2B Phillips 25 12 55 0.324
SS Gonzalez 29 11 50 0.292
3B Encarna 23 20 75 0.301
LF Dunn 27 40 100 0.383
CF Griffey 37 30 90 0.374
RF Freel 30 4 30 0.367
Denorfia 26 3 35 0.353
C Ross 29 12 50 0.322


Where am I pessimistic or optimistic? This is based on Phillips, Hatteberg and Ross not having career years again and the rest up to career norms. If this is close, the offense would hit 146 HR's.

Not too many disagreements. Griffey's OBP and production seems too high and I doubt that we get 12 HR and 52 RBI from Conine as a platoon 1B against LH. If he plays that much then Hatte's numbers are too high. I expect about 15 HR and 60 RBI with a .350 OBP from the combined 1B slot.


EE's OBP will be a lot higher. Maybe you have he and Griffey mixed up on OBP.

Make those adjustments and its a bad offense. 700 Runs tops.

puca
12-22-2006, 09:01 AM
Just trying to project the offense of the Cincinnati Reds as we know them today. Does this look reasonable?:



Pos Player Age HR RBI OBP

1B Hatteberg 37 9 43 0.361
Conine 40 12 52 0.348
2B Phillips 25 12 55 0.324
SS Gonzalez 29 11 50 0.292
3B Encarna 23 20 75 0.301
LF Dunn 27 40 100 0.383
CF Griffey 37 30 90 0.374
RF Freel 30 4 30 0.367
Denorfia 26 3 35 0.353
C Ross 29 12 50 0.322


Where am I pessimistic or optimistic? This is based on Phillips, Hatteberg and Ross not having career years again and the rest up to career norms. If this is close, the offense would hit 146 HR's.

EE looks way off. If he puts up that kind of line the Reds are in big trouble. Griffey's and Conine's numbers look optimistic to me. Flipping Griffey and EE's numbers might be more realistic.

They would be at about 150 HRs and 550 runs. I could definitely see that happening. And that is what scares me.

Johnny Footstool
12-22-2006, 11:48 AM
Encarnacion is a very disciplined hitter, even at a young age. His OBP will be around .360. I'd also expect more than 25 HR.

Team Clark
12-22-2006, 11:52 AM
Encarnacion is a very disciplined hitter, even at a young age. His OBP will be around .360. I'd also expect more than 25 HR.

Totally agree. He showed power to the opposite field gap late in the season. The opposing pitchers will not be able to "camp out" on the outside corner all year.

Deno has a lot more power than you think. If he were to play in 150 games you will see 20-22 HR's.

Phillips is a 20 HR guy too. He has to reign it in trying to hit HR's to CF but he has the pop in the gaps. BOTH Gaps.

marcshoe
12-22-2006, 12:28 PM
The Encarnacion numbers were the first thing that struck me also (well, other than assuming that Griffey plays enough to hit 30 home runs). My biggest reason for hope this season is Encarnacion's continuing development. I see him as a force in the middle of the lineup.

Always Red
12-22-2006, 12:50 PM
The Encarnacion numbers were the first thing that struck me also (well, other than assuming that Griffey plays enough to hit 30 home runs). My biggest reason for hope this season is Encarnacion's continuing development. I see him as a force in the middle of the lineup.

He has to be; there's not another option.

Joseph
12-22-2006, 04:49 PM
Hope you don't mind, I lined up the code a little better.

redsandrails
12-22-2006, 05:28 PM
I'd say something like this:
AB AVG HR RBI R OBP SLG OPS SB
Ross 351 .246 17 44 38 .337 .474 .811 0
Valentin 237 .271 10 30 29 .330 .458 .788 0
Hatteburg 446 .281 10 51 57 .369 .425 .794 2
Conine 254 .263 6 34 36 .341 .370 .711 2
Phillips 541 .270 16 64 78 .344 .439 .783 31
Ed. Enc. 556 .291 26 102 96 .368 .535 .903 9
Gonzalez 503 .251 16 58 61 .308 .420 .728 5
Dunn 541 .260 42 103 106 .381 .543 .924 6
Castro 214 .245 3 20 22 .302 .374 .676 1
Freel 413 .275 6 31 71 .372 .385 .757 34
Donorfia 364 .287 5 43 51 .361 .410 .771 14
Griffey 425 .265 29 77 61 .339 .510 .849 2
Moeller 136 .227 3 14 17 .288 .356 .644 0
Crosby 127 .256 3 15 16 .312 .400 .712 1

Chip R
12-22-2006, 05:41 PM
He has to be; there's not another option.


Oh yes there is. :thumbdown

http://www.cincinnati.com/reds/roster/img/castro_125x150.jpg

George Foster
12-22-2006, 05:57 PM
Those numbers you posted for Griffey will be his production for the next 2 seasons.

Highlifeman21
12-22-2006, 07:43 PM
Just trying to project the offense of the Cincinnati Reds as we know them today. Does this look reasonable?:



Pos Player Age HR RBI OBP

1B Hatteberg 37 9 43 0.361
Conine 40 12 52 0.348
2B Phillips 25 12 55 0.324
SS Gonzalez 29 11 50 0.292
3B Encarna 23 20 75 0.301
LF Dunn 27 40 100 0.383
CF Griffey 37 30 90 0.374
RF Freel 30 4 30 0.367
Denorfia 26 3 35 0.353
C Ross 29 12 50 0.322


Where am I pessimistic or optimistic? This is based on Phillips, Hatteberg and Ross not having career years again and the rest up to career norms. If this is close, the offense would hit 146 HR's.

I think you're gonna see Conine's projected out of Hatteberg, and we'll be lucky to see an OBP of .350 out of that platoon. Definitely less than 80 RBI from the two

Phillips seems very accurate

Gonzalez the RBI seems high, the rest accurate

I would add at least .4 to EE's OBP. I'd be surprised to see him below .340. He might get closer to 90 RBI if Narron bats him in the 3-5 range.

Those are the numbers we've come to expect out of Dunn.

Griffey won't hit 20 HR, certainly won't crack 75 RBI, and his OBP will be lucky to break .330

For Freel, Denorfia and Ross, I think you're accurate.

All that being said, this offense will be lucky to crack 625 Runs for the 2007 campaign.

75 wins for this ballclub.

WVRedsFan
12-22-2006, 08:11 PM
I think you're gonna see Conine's projected out of Hatteberg, and we'll be lucky to see an OBP of .350 out of that platoon. Definitely less than 80 RBI from the two

Phillips seems very accurate

Gonzalez the RBI seems high, the rest accurate

I would add at least .4 to EE's OBP. I'd be surprised to see him below .340. He might get closer to 90 RBI if Narron bats him in the 3-5 range.

Those are the numbers we've come to expect out of Dunn.

Griffey won't hit 20 HR, certainly won't crack 75 RBI, and his OBP will be lucky to break .330

For Freel, Denorfia and Ross, I think you're accurate.

All that being said, this offense will be lucky to crack 625 Runs for the 2007 campaign.

75 wins for this ballclub.
I think you and I agree for the most part, except for Griffey. He played a little over 100 games last year and hit 27, so 20 isn't so far off base. He also had 72 RBI's last year. Of course, I wrote that before the broken hand...

75 wins is just about right, especially if no more moves are made and Jerry Narron is still the manager. I just fear we'll keep hearing, "look what he did with a team everyone thought would finish last," to eternity. Jerrylove. Who can understand it?

RedsManRick
12-25-2006, 06:10 PM
I think Junior's OBP is a bit high, though the HR and RBI are fine if he plays 120 games. The question is how many games/ab does he get.

I also think Conine's projection is a bit optimistic. He went .325 last year and is even further on the wrong side of 40.

My big complaint is EE.

He hit .276/.359/.473 with 15 and 72 in only 406 AB last year. He also hit 33 doubles. You're looking at a guy with a legit shot at leading the Reds in XBH (75+). He's got a solid approach and I think anything under .350 would be a disappointment. I'm expecting something in the .365-.370 range.

Otherwise, it looks about right to me.